0502 Lng Exports Ebinger

7/31/2019 0502 Lng Exports Ebinger

1/56

Energy Security Initiativeat BROOKINGS

MAY 2012

Policy Brief 12-01

Liquid Markets:

Assessing the Caseor U.S. Exports oLiquefed Natural Gas

Charles EbingerKevin Massy

Govinda Avasarala


2/56

E N E R G Y S E C U R I T Y I N I T I A T I V E

L q u M A KE t : AE G t E CAE u . . E x P t L q uE E At u AL G A

i

AboUT ThE bRookINGS ENERGY SECURITY INITIATIVE

E S I (ESI) s ss-pm b Bks Is dsd s mldspl s d dl ll sps s d. ESI zs pbl d p s ld pd d s wll sp lbl m,

ml d s ldsp pd ws d m s wll

q dmd dsd lkl sqs s s d

mpls sd plmk. T ESI Pl B Ss s dd sws ss dsd slsp pl sss m s bd s s, w mpss

d pl mmds.

Contact or the Energy Security Initiative:Gd Asl

S Rs Asss

(202) 797-6231

[email protected]

Bks zs l pds spp s

s bsl mmm ql, dpd d mp. A-

s sppd b s ds s mmm, d lss

d mmds Iss sls dmd

b d.
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


3/56



ii

G AGd Asl s S Rs Asss

E S I Bks. Hs

s ss pls

m mks, dms d l l

d l s mks, d mlll

mwks. H s BS Ems m

Us M Ws.

C EgCls Eb s s llw d d

E S I Bks. H

s m 35 s xp splz-

l d dms mks

(l, s, l, d l) d pls

, d s sd s pl ds

50 ms. H s sd s d-

j pss ms Js

Hpks Sl Add Il Sd-s d Gw Uss Wls Sl

F S.

K MK Mss s Asss D E

S I Bks w m-

s s l ls

d dms pl. A m w

Ems mz d l-

, s MSFS Il Bsss

d Cmm m Gw Us, MA Il Jlsm m C U-

s, Ld, d BA m Us

Nwsl.

AboUT ThE AUThoRS


4/56



iii

TAblEof CoNTENTS

PEACE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

MEME hE KG AA GA AK CE . . . . . . . . . . . .

ACKwEGME. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

ExECvE MMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

C. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

PA : EA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Rs Albl d Pd Ssbl . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Eml, Rl, d Skld Csds Nl Gs Pd. . . . . 6C p d I s C s s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Pw G . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Idsl S . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17sp S. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Cmml d Rsdl S Dmd. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

G G M . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20P Bs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Al Bs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24Ems d F . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

PA : MPCA .. G ExP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28P Dms Nl Gs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28T Pw S d Idsl S. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Nl s p ll . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35T mm d jbs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36Dms s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38Il P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38Gpls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41Il Eml Impls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

PA : CC A ECMMEA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45


5/56



iv

m s s ESI ssmbld sk F

dpd l-s xps, ws xp-

s d ss pdd d s

sd. T lss s p s

s d d ssl

ws mmbs sk .

I M 2011, T Bks Is E- S I (ESI) b -lsd psps s s

lqd l s (LNG) xps m

Ud Ss.

PREfACE

MEMbERSofThE bRookINGS INSTITUTIoN NATURAl GAS TASk foRCE

Kelly Bennett,Bentek Energy, LLC

Kevin Book, ClearView Energy Partners, LLC

Tom Choi, Deloitte

Charles Ebinger, Brookings Institution, ask Force

co-Chair

David Goldwyn, Goldwyn Global Strategies, LLC,

ask Force co-Chair

James Jensen,Jensen Associates

Robert Johnston, Eurasia Group

Melanie Kenderdine,Massachusetts Institute of

echnology Energy Initiative

Vello Kuuskraa,Advanced Resources

International

Michael Levi, Council on Foreign Relations

Robert McNally, Te Rapidan Group

Kenneth Medlock, Rice Universitys James A.

Baker III Institute for Public Policy

Francis O Sullivan,Massachusetts Institute of

echnology Energy Initiative

Lou Pugliaresi, Energy Policy ResearchFoundation, Inc.

Benjamin Schlesinger, Benjamin Schlesinger &

Associates, LLC

Phil Sharp, Resources for the Future

Tyler Van Leeuwen,Advanced Resources

International

N-pp Obss sk F m-

s ldd ls m E Im- Adms d Cssl R-

s S.


6/56



v

l Y G, D Fl, d Cldwll

Bl s sss d p. T

s ls l J Bks, ESI -

sd llw, d d P, dp d

F Pl Bks, l

w. T wld ls lk z lp Gl Cl, Rb Js, d Cs Kp-

sk d d pd pss.

s wld lk k mmbs Bks E S I(ESI) Nl Gs sk F m, s-

ss, p, d w s p. T -

s wld ls lk k s xps

w m ddl ms ps sp ps l s p d

Lk Sm s p. T s -

ACkNowlEdGMENTS


7/56



vi

lss ms sl s pd,

d mss, lls

LNG xp, ld psl d m

p d dmds l s m m-

p dms ss, smbl.

I ls ds , l lbl sppld dmd pjs, sm m U.S.

LNG xps s lkl b mp lbl

mks. T sd ds U.S. LNG xps

lkl mds pwd mp d-

ms ps, d lmd mp m-

pss U.S. ds d jb . I

ds U.S. LNG s lkl mk ps, l-

b ll smll, b U.S. ss

dms pd (GDP), d bl, d

pl U.S. LNG xps mk ps-

mp lbl s s msss s

mml. I ds s pl

ps pl mps m U.S.

lbl s mk, b sd

sppl ds s s-mp lls,

d s b wk l-

lkd p s wks

d -sk sppls.

T sd mmds U.S. pl mks

sld m d lsl

ls wld pm lm d-

dl xps LNG m Ud Ss.

T LNG s, b ss ss-

d w pd, pss, d spp

s, d lbl mk w wll

mp, wll pl pp bds m

D b ll bks l s pd, mjss U.S. l s ss d p-

d ld sppl w sl

p ss s. As sl,

l s pds s w d d-dl ss dmd wd l-

ms. O ppsd d-s s xp

U.S. l s m lqd l

s (LNG). Wl Ud Ss ld x-

ps mds qs l s, msl

ppl, ppsls, sm w

ld d ll pl ppl m

dl m, wld s sbsll

lm LNG xps. T s w

db bw plmks, ds, d -

lss s ms xp

qs U.S. l s. Sm dms -

l s sms d xp U.S.

s wld sl s dms -

l s ps d ps

bssss d slds. Pps l

s xps wld pd l-

bl x d wld b s

m w d jb .

Ts p, sl -l sd, ddss-

s ms sd LNG xps

xm sbl xps d

lkl mpls. I lds ,

m ss, sd LNG

xps m Ud Ss ll -

sbl. Wl w pls m s

ExECUTIVE SUMMARY


8/56



vii

b pl mks lkl sl sbsds

sms xps pds, d

ld dd sqs. T ls

lkl wk ps Ud Ss

s spp lbl d ssm -

zd b w ds d pl.

LNG wll b m xp. I-

ml ss p dms s (s

sl dms dmd xp) l

mp ms ddl ppsd

xp pj, w w m p-

pl wll sll q p d -

sd bs. Es mk


9/56



1

INTRodUCTIoN

mx psl smd. Wl

dms s s b pl -

sd l s s pw, dsl,pml, d sp ss,

s ls sd s m pl mks

d p ss psp U-

d Ss bm s xp LNG

(s g1 ls ppsd d pl

lw-48 LNG xp mls).

T Ud Ss ld xps mds l-

ms l s ppl Mx d

Cd d, l Nmb 2011, m

LNG m K ml Alsk Jp,l l l s l b m-

pl dld.2 Sl pjs l d

sd wld l dlpm

lq ls bl xp LNG

sd qs. Ts ppsd pjs,

sm w b pl ppl

b dl m ps ,

l ld b d ml

ls s-b-s bss.

Lss dd , Ud Ss ws mj sll sppl -l s s dl l pd dss w pd b s dmd. T

s ws s p mps, -

d b dl-m pls, b

s mp mls LNG, w

ws dd s l w m w

dmd.1 S 2005, s s dm-

ll sd. D b ds xpl

d pd l d pps s

p l s 2008, U.S -

l s s s d l s s

ms psl m -l ss sl ms ss

Ns, Mdws, d S b dl-

pd.

El sms sz l

s s d. Hw, s l

pds d d ss lk sd

lbl lms sl s m

s m pl l s U.S.

1 T 2005 E Pl A dmsd Fdl m spp smld LNG mp pss b d 2002 Hkb Ds b Fdl E Rl Cmmss (FERC), w bsld U.S. LNG mp mls mp-ss qms d llwd m mk bsd s; d b FERC xls pp s,s, xps d p s mp mls.

2 T K lq pl, d 1969, xpd Jp mds ms (30 b 2010) s pdd m Ck Il.CPllps, w d p l, d ll pld ls pl M 2011 d bl wsppl s; w, llw qk d sbsq l dss Jp, ddd xd ps pl sx ms llw ddl spms Jp.


10/56



2

Spps s pjs m

wll pd lbl s m

w, s m d, d jb

Ud Ss. Opps d wll

s dms l s ps dm

U.S. sms d l U.S. -

s.

T Bks Iss E S I-

s dk -l sd ssss

sbl d mpls s

U.S. LNG xps. m s s, ESIssmbld sk F dpd l

g 1: Ppsd/Pl N Am LNG Exp mls (s Fb 28, 2012)

S: Fdl E Rl Cmmss, Dpm E

s xps, ws dssss d dlbs

pd bss pjs lss. T

lss s p s l

d d ssl ps ws

sk F. Ts p pss ls

sd, d s sd w ps. P

I sssss LNG xps d

s lkl b bl-

Ud Ss xp m s. P

II lks sl -

sd LNG xps m Ud Ss. P

III pss sds ds d lssd s mmds pl mks.

A -A A Pj

( Eg):

Sabine Pass, Louisiana (Cheniere Energy):

2.2 b/d;ppsd FERC

A A Pj:

Freeport, Texas (Freeport LNG): 1.8 bcf/d; ppsd FERC

Lake Chalres, Louisiana (BG and SouthernU): 2.0 b/d

Cove Point, Maryland (Dominion): 1.0b/d

Hackberry, Louisiana (Cameron LNG): 1.7b/d

Coos Bay, Oregon (Jordan Cove Energy):

1.2 b/dAg A

Corpus Christi, Texas (Cheniere Energy):1.8 b/d; ppsd FERC

Brownsville Texas (Gulf Coast to LNGExp): 2.8 b/d

Note: two other companies are looking toexport a total of 0.3 bcf/day of LNG fromvarious locations.


11/56



3

PART I: fEASIbIl ITY

x w LNG xps l-

m ps sm, d lds

ss lq, sp, d -s, d lbl .

omestic upply actors

T dms U.S. l s sppl s s

dmd pml b ss s: -

s lbl d pd ssbl;

pl, l, d ml sd-

s; d p d s ss.

A P

F s U.S. xps LNG b -

sdd sbl, s b dq d

ssbl dms s bs spp .

Nl s l s ppxml

25 p U.S. pm mx.3 Wl

l pds l m U.S. s

sppl, sl s pd s s p-

d : m 2000 2006, sl s pd

sd b l 17 p;m 2006 2010, pd sd b

l 48 p (s F 2).4

Ad E Im Adms-

F pps s sd, Bkss m dd s s sbl sd U.S. LNG x-ps. Ts s w ddd m

s: dms sppl, dms dmd,

l s mks, d m -

l. O sppl sd, sbl s dd s

psl p Ud Ss

s lms lbl xp. Fs s

d ld: s lbl d pd-

ssbl; l d ml

sds; d s sss, ld-

ppl lbl, s, d spp -

p. O dmd sd, sbl xpss dd b x w pl xps

mp w s dms d ss -

sd l s, ld l -

, sp, d dsl d p-

ml pd. W d l

mks, sbl s x w pl

U.S. xps mp w LNG ss

m dmd, d lds ssssm

pl mks U.S.- LNG wld

s. I ls lds ssssm

l p ms, pll lk bw l s ps d l ps

mks. Em sbl sssss -

s dsk ss b

3 AEO 2012 El Rls Ow, E Im Adms (EIA, 2012).4 Al E Olk 2011 w Pjs 2035, E Im Adms, Apl 2011. pp. 37, 39. (EIA, Apl 2011)


12/56



4

w w d mb dms d ss.

T b mb ps d sd-

s mp d l m

ll bl sl s ss

lms s bl s l-

sp slbl Ud

Ss. Ts sms m js d 700

ll b () sl s 1,800

(s 1). p s mbs -

x, Ud Ss smd js 24

s 2010, ss sms sl s s l wld b

ss bw 25 d 80 s U.S. dms

dmd.6 T sms bl sl s

(EIA), sl s pd U-

d Ss d 4.87 ll b ()

2010, 23 p U.S. d s pd. B

2035, s smd sl s pd wll

46 p l dms l

s pd.5

G l sl s

U.S. s s, m dsss

pl xps s psps

s ssd lbl d dlpm. Fxps b sbl, s m sl d

l ss ds b s d-

ls l pd d mp

Tight Gas

Shale Gas

Coalbed Methane

Other Non-Associated

Onshore

Other Non-Associated

Offshore

Associated Total

Alaska

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Trilli

on

Cubic

Feet/Year

g 2: U.S. Nl Gs Pd b S, 2009-2035 (/)

S: U.S. E Im Adms, Al E Olk 2011

5 Ibd.6 U.S. Nl Gs Pd, Csmp, d N Imps, E Im Adms, (p://www../d/

dl.m?d=770)
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=770http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=770http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=770http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=770


13/56



5

T ssd pd sl s wlls ss

pml ll dlpms w

s: dl (k) p-

ss, w w, sd, d mls

d pss k ms

ppd s; d l zl

wlls (lls) dlld sl l. Sl

s ls d pd psss

b dlp pdl s, mp-

ms x. Cmps w

dll l lls d s

mb k ss mb d

k ss ll sp wll,

ld s lbl ss d

wll pd.8 A lss wll-sp-d-

llss b l pd s d

lm wll b w ss

ll pd s ( pls), b d-

dw p ss pd.

A m mmd sd w d

pd ssbl s lbl dll-

qpm d sklld lb. I dd

dmds l m s mb

sl s psps, s s mp-

m pds sl l d

l ss, w s sm qpm ld pd s m lbl s

mk ps; d m pds w

m sd pls l s

lqds, lbl b-pd d s pd-

. Fms s s El Fd Sl

xs d U Sl O d Nw Yk,

w ds s

lqds pdd w s pd

s s s m pds

ps w s. T dsplm s m d

s psps, s s Hsll Sl Ls, w psps s s Bk-

k ld N Dk, s ld , s

ss ls mp w sm l

U.S. s ss (s d s, ld-

Alsk) 2,543 .7 Bsd

sms blw, sl s ld

bw 29 p d 52 p l

ll bl l s s

Ud Ss.

1. Cmps sl s sms

Lw 48 Ss, (ll

Rbl Rss, xld p

ss; )

Reserve Estimate

(tcf)

ICF 1,842Advanced ResourcesInternational

1,189

Energy InformationAdministration (EIA), 2011

827

Potential Gas Committee 687

S: ICF Il, Add Rss Il, EIA,Pl Gs Cmm.

G P

I dd sz mll -bl ss, w mj s wll

mp ssbl sl s p-

d: pd sl s wlls; d

dmd qpm sd sl s

pd. T pd sl s wlls s

b sbj m db, w sm

ds bss ss dlpd

wlls m p b lss pd s

dlpd d. Hw, pm w

m dpd xps s ssbl

sl s pd s s ss, w d pd mp-

m ls d pd psss.

7 Assmps Al E Olk 2011, E Im Adms, 2011.8 U.S. Nl Gs Rss d Pd Cp, Add Rss Il, ppd C E, Apl 26, 2010.

Exbs Appl Sb Pss Lq, LLC L-m Az Exp Lqd Nl Gs, U.S. Dpm E. p. 275. Als s Nl Gs Ids Fks M Ld, EPRINC B Mmdm, E Pl RsFd, I., Jl 1, 2011. (EPRINC, Jl 2011)


14/56



6

s s sl s pd sd. T

lss 2011 p dd b

S Es Ads Bd (SEAB)

ps d s sl s dlp-

m d bs wll b ll

dbl pss d m-

l mp sl s pd, pl sk

ms pl bs

s dms s.10 C d

ml mp sl s

dlpm s ld m ll p-

ps ps, sm w ll

bs k. F s p, ds ws

l d sl s s m

s lls dlpm.

dd b dl s s

s. Ow ll mpms d

lbl ssd d s lqds-

pls, d pd s kp p dsp

dl (s g 3).9

E, g, C G P

T s U.S. LNG xps dpds l

d dlpm l s.

Ts dlpm sl dpds s d

ssbl p k-

, pss s b d s pbl

2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

March

2006

March

2007

March

2008

March

2009

March

2010

March

2011

March

2012

Average Monthly Rig Count

Natural Gas Production (mmcf/day)

g 3: Nl Gs R C d D Gs Pd (Ml A), 2006-2012

9 EPRINC, Jl 2011.10 T SEAB Sl Gs Pd Sbmm Sd N-D Rp, Nl Gs Sbmm S E

Ads Bd, Nmb 18, 2011. p.3. (SEAB, 2011)

S: Bk Hs, EIA


15/56



7

I N Dk, m Bkk sl l

ld, l 30 p s pdd

3 bll b (b) p ms l

d; p d s m pd-

Nb sl m sddls

Cld, Wm d Nbsk s sdd

b ds xps b m .11 T

s pd dlpm NGL-

sl pls, s s El Fd d U, m

smll sl ssd d

s, w s lss lbl l s lqds

(NGLs).

A dm sd ssd , -

sd m msss d -

, l-l msss m l s pd-

s m ssl ls,

ld l. A mb sds b l

lbs, dms, d lss, w-

, dspd s d, ld

l-l msss sl s sd pw-

sll l 50 p s

m l.12

O ml sss b sd

b pps k ld pssbl

lk bw k d ssm dsp,d sss pl mm

w k ps w

xs l l s, ld

sk dw m. T

ls s dspsl wsw

j wlls m s ssm dsp-

s. T USGS s d ssm

sl m k s lms lws smll

b s . T j wsw

m k pss dp wlls s sb-

j s.

E

T m ml sss

d b ddssd sl s pd s

sl d pd bs m

s: w, msss, d pll

s s s d dsp sd b wk-s

.

T ss w s b ms pm

d, w m s b sk

m s w d w bls,

lm w sd pss k-

, d dspsl ws w m

k pss. T sk dw -

m m k s b sbj

s db. Sm ml ds

q ld sp

s d mls w sppls, wl -

mps m l slld

wll ss mbd w dp k

psms w m sd

b w blmk pss

s dk w sppls.

W d msss, mj s s

b l lks l s, - msss, l s, d

. T l ss s pl

l dlpms sm sl l pls,

s s Bkk d Nb. A b ss,

pd l qs pd l

lms ssd l s. G -

s -l lqds pd d

p dlpm s lds, -

s d sp s ss-

d s s b dql dlpd. T

sl s l ms s b d.11 Fm Ds C b N Dk Idsl Cmmss Dpm Ml Rss, Jl 21, 2011. (ps://www.dm.

d./ls/ds/ds-2011-07-21.pd)12 F m sd s Rb Hw l, M d s s p l s m sl ms, Clm

C Ls, 2011. F xmpls spss s sd l lb sds ss s: N Hlm l, Ts mp l s l , Eml Rs Ls, Vl. 6, . 4 (Ob-Dmb2011); Mk Fl l, Cmp L-Cl Gs Gs Emsss m Nl Gs d Cl, Wldw Is d DsBk Gp Clm C Adss, As 25, 2011; d L Cl Gs Gs I Nl Gs Ex, Dl dEl Pd, Nl E l Lb, U.S. Dpm E, Ob 24, 2011.
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2011-07-21.pdfhttps://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2011-07-21.pdfhttps://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2011-07-21.pdfhttps://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2011-07-21.pdf


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8

d 2014, w m p sdld

ls 2012. I Ob 2011, EPA

d wld s Cl W A

l dspsl ws w pdd b

k. T s l d ds-

sss w s sklds d wll

ppsd l b 2014.14

T EPA s ls l d wll

s x Sbss Cl A (SCA)

[] ppsd lmk pss

b d ml sbss d mxs

sd dl .15 Akwld

sm ss ld s p,

EPA d wld mplm,

dpl, s s d wld p-

d p ml m-

pds sd k ds.

I Dmb 2011, EPA lsd d l-

ss d m s d

w ql Pll, Wm. T d

p ds d w q

d w d mpds lkl s-

sd w s pd ps ld

dl , d ml smpls

w ll blw sblsd l ds sdds.16 T d p s l-

zd pps k. Rspss

p m s ds pss s

lsss ds d ps-

sbl l sm

mls dsd smpls. O M

8, 2012 EPA, S Wm, d l-

N Am bs d

p w pd wld m p

l p U.S. Gll S

g g G

P

A s d dl m s

jsd k d sps

l s dlpm, d x

w, d ws w, s s m-

plm ls sl s pd wll

mj mp bl xps.

Environmental Protection Agency

T Eml P A (EPA) s

mb s s ppl

l sl s pd, ld -

s ml ss d plls

lsd ( Cl A A)

d w sppls kp m ws

w m lks ( Cl

W A d S Dk W A). T

ppl s EPA d sl

s pd l w smp,

m, d s.13 Ow pss

2005 E Pl A, EPAs l-

dd j ds l

k d S Dk W A s

lmd s ps s dsl-bsd

k ds. Hw, s ddss- ss k

s s.

As qd b Css, EPA s b

sd sl s d k ss

s w s: w wdwls,

s splls k ds, mps j-

dk w, mps wbk d

pdd w, d wsw m d

dspsl. T sls sd d b

13 I Nmb 2011, EPA lsd s pl sd, qs Css, mps dl w ss. Tp ss m s b dl pl sks dk w ss, l sss b sd. (Pl Sd Pl Imps Hdl F Dk W Rss, U.S. Eml PA, Nmb 2011. p. .)

14 Nl Gs ExHdl F, U.S. Eml P A. (p://www.p./dl /).15 Nl Gs ExHdl F, U.S. Eml P A. (p://www.p./dl /).16 EPA Rlss D Fds Pll, Wm Gd W Is Pbl Cmm d Idpd S Rw,

Eml P A, Nmb 8, 2011.
http://www.epa.gov/hydraulicfracturehttp://www.epa.gov/hydraulicfracturehttp://www.epa.gov/hydraulicfracturehttp://www.epa.gov/hydraulicfracture


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9

Regional and State-Level Regulation

As l-sl sl s pd s ll

w pm, sl sps l-

mld sss dl-ss-

s jsd b sld. C-

l, ms ss mplm w l

qms l d s pd w

EPA spsbl s sl

s pd ms l sdds ,

ds, d w smp d m.

Wl m mps d

l s ss ps,

ddd p w dl

s ls sld jsd

m: sm k mps dl -

s wld s sl s pd, wl

s s psp sl s l-

qms s pbl pwk

s-ll ls.

Sm bl s- d l-ll l

sl s pd lds:

T xs Rld Cmmsss J

2011 lsl qs dl-

pm ls md

dsls mps dssd dl .19

A mmm b Psl G-

m Cb Ob 2011 m-

plm mmds

ss Mlls Sl Ads Cm-

mss, ld pss xd

lbl pds, s mp s,

d s ds sl-s

wlls m p d pbl bds

w.

(USGS) d bms pbll lbl.17 M

l, EPA pd d -

m lls ps l s

Dmk, Psl, s xs lw-

s s sl s pd.

I dd s s w, EPA s s-

l s s ql d pll.

O Apl 17, 2012, lzd ls l

plls m k-ld ps -

dd sl m ll

mpd (VOC) msss m

mpl dlll d l d s

wlls. T ls, w wll m

2015, xpd b EPA d ms-

ss m sl s wlls b s m s 95 p.

Bureau of Land Management

T B Ld Mm (BLM) w-

U.S. Dpm I ss

dlpm l d s ss Fdl

ld. Wl BLM ds d pp -

k ps, s ps ms b

pd B b mps

m w 30 ds. N- k

ps q p ppl b B.

Hw, s w EPAs s k, s l d w ss

- p. C-

l, BLM mmds d s bs ld

d w mm ps sl s p-

d. S I K Slz s

ls pbll sd s sd pssbl

ls dsls mls sd

k dl lds. Slz d

Fb 2012 l s mps wll b

qd sp wlls k pbl

lds s s dk w sppls.18

17 Sm Pll, Wm dw s, Eml P A, M 8, 2012. (p://sm.p./p/dmpss.s/d0661852598525735900369d/17640d445b4852579bb006432d!pdm)

18 Gs Wll Isps b Rqd Fk, Slz Ss, Bloomberg, Fb 14, 2012. (p://www.blmb.m/ws/2012-02-14/s-wll-sps--b-qd--k-slz-ss.ml)

19 Bll H.B. N. 3328, A A l dsls mps dl ds sd dl ms, 82d Lsl, Gm S xs. (p://www.pl.s.x.s/BllLkp/Hs.spx?LSss=82R&Bll=HB3328).
http://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/d0cf6618525a9efb85257359003fb69d/17640d44f5be4cef852579bb006432de!opendocumenthttp://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/d0cf6618525a9efb85257359003fb69d/17640d44f5be4cef852579bb006432de!opendocumenthttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-14/gas-well-inspections-to-be-required-after-fracking-salazar-says.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-14/gas-well-inspections-to-be-required-after-fracking-salazar-says.htmlhttp://www.capitol.state.tx.us/BillLookup/History.aspx?LegSess=82R&Bill=HB3328http://www.capitol.state.tx.us/BillLookup/History.aspx?LegSess=82R&Bill=HB3328http://www.capitol.state.tx.us/BillLookup/History.aspx?LegSess=82R&Bill=HB3328http://www.capitol.state.tx.us/BillLookup/History.aspx?LegSess=82R&Bill=HB3328http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-14/gas-well-inspections-to-be-required-after-fracking-salazar-says.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-14/gas-well-inspections-to-be-required-after-fracking-salazar-says.htmlhttp://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/d0cf6618525a9efb85257359003fb69d/17640d44f5be4cef852579bb006432de!opendocumenthttp://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/d0cf6618525a9efb85257359003fb69d/17640d44f5be4cef852579bb006432de!opendocument


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10

Psls pss bll Fb-

2012 llw s l s

l s wlls, w s xpd

b $211 mll s

. Ms m wll m-

ms d b dll P-

sls p Mlls.21

T mp s-ll l sl

s dlpm ws ld b SEAB

p, w mmdd sd dl

d S Rw Ol d Nl

Gs Eml Rls (SRONGER),

d Gd W P Cl, w

xs zs lp ss dlp

ls d bs p.22

O d s s w -

l m d-

lpm sl s ld bs

mmsss; d mpl, w d ll

ms. T x w s lw sp-

sds ms ll-ll ls k-

d sps sl s pd wll

s b ssbl

sl-s dlpm ps.23

E, g,

G E

Wl sl sds s

sl s pd m,

s b ls d d d

lks p k d w

m sd ssm . As

l s l m -

Nw Yks mp mm

k, w ld w k p-

s s. T Gs -

s p wd d m-

l mp sd pbl mm,

sls w wll m ds

w pm k

w sp xmps.

Ws Vs J Sl Cmm

Mlls Sls pss bll -

ss dll pm s, w sd

s lld m

wll sps. T bll, w ls ls

w ms mps s-

ws dm pp, d

mmm dss bw wlls m

ms d dk w, sll ds

b d b ll s lsl.

Cld d Wms md

qm mpl

l s wlls, w s d

ps wld sll sp

msp d mpl ps

wll pd d sld.

T Dlw R Bs Cmmsss

(DBRC, dl s m

mpsd bs ss),

sd w ls l

d s pdd d

w smp d dspslw

bs. Ad DRBC, b

36 p bs ls M-

lls Sl.20

20 Nl Gs Dll Dlw R Bs, Dlw R Bs Cmmss. (p://www.s.j.s/db/ls.m )21 Rm Vs, Psl S L Cs P Fs Nl-Gs Wlls, Bloomberg, Fb 10, 2012. (p://www.bssswk.

m/ws/2012-02-10/psl-s--l-s-p-s--l-s-wlls.ml).22 SEAB, 2011, p.3.23 F xll lss l s Mlls Sl, s Adw Blm l, Imp sl s pl

dms d l l s mks, C I Eml Rs, Us Mld, Ob 2011.
http://www.state.nj.us/drbc/naturalgas.htmhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-10/pennsylvania-set-to-let-counties-put-fees-on-natural-gas-wells.htmlhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-10/pennsylvania-set-to-let-counties-put-fees-on-natural-gas-wells.htmlhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-10/pennsylvania-set-to-let-counties-put-fees-on-natural-gas-wells.htmlhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-10/pennsylvania-set-to-let-counties-put-fees-on-natural-gas-wells.htmlhttp://www.state.nj.us/drbc/naturalgas.htm


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11

s d spsbl d ssbl sl s

dlpm s ss m

d pbl pp s k.

T m ds SEAB p d

wl m ss d sl dl s -

l sps s ps,

ls s m l.24 T p mp-

szd l ds spsbl dl-

pm sl s d lld m

sl s ds pd z wld sbls bs p ps, s

m w ls, d bld pb-

l s. T l sd ws pl

s m p, w

d sm d d ssd s

dd d xss ml mps

sl s pd d sq sk

pbl pps s d xp-

s.25 T x w ds s

spsbl skld d sdd s d

x w pbl d k b d wll l b

sbl d sl s dlpm d

sbl U.S. LNG s xps.

ms, sl s dlpm s lkl

pd lms wll mk LNG x-

ps sbl. Hw, l

ldsp mpss ddl ss p-

ds ld mk ml sl s psps

m, d sz m-

ll bl s, b l -

sbl LNG xps. Csl,

wll dlpd ls, pssbl bsd

ssbl bs p, ld pd b pbl, m d ds. T

m b Obm Adms-

w lld $45 mll

s d dlpm pm

bw Dpm E, I, d

EPA d ws d -

ml mp sl s pdsss

Adms spps ssbl

dlpm sl s ss.

E P P

Isp ls pl d

sd, mp sp dss-

24 SEAB, 2011.25 Ibd.

2: Appls Rd b Dpm E Exp LNG m

Lw-48 Ss (s M 23, 2012)

Facility Quantity Location FTA approved Non-FTA approved

Sabine Pass 2.2 bcf/day Louisiana Yes Yes

Freeport 1.4 bcf/day Texas Yes Under Review

Lake Charles 2.0 bcf/day Louisiana Yes Under Review

Carib Energy FTA: 0.03 bcf/day

Non-FTA: 0.01 bcf/day

various Yes Under Review

Dominion Cove Point 1.0 bcf/day Maryland Yes Under Review

Jordan Cove Point 1.2 bcf/day Oregon Yes Under Review

Cameron LNG 1.7 bcf/day Louisiana Yes Under Review

Gulf Coast LNG Export 2.8 bcf/day Texas Under Review Under Review

Cambridge Energy 0.27 bcf/day various Under Review n/a

S: U.S. Dpm E


20/56



12

P g C

T dlpm sl s pls s lkl

pd l dms

U.S. l s mk. Isd pd-

m Mlls Sl s lkl dspl

sm sppls m Gl Cs d

s l s l Ns

mk.29 M, sl sd

LNG xps m Gl Cs d,

m b d s ppls llw s

w wd Gl Cs.

mxmz m pl U.S.

sl s dwm, w xps

dms s, wll b qm

s xps s l

l s ppl wk, pll

Mlls Sl. I 2010, Ml-

ls pds pdd w l

1,100 wlls dlld d ppl ss.30 ICF I-

l, sl, sms 3,300 dd-

l mls ppl wll b bl N-

s bw 2009 d 2035.31 T s l

6 b/d FERC-ppd ppsd ppl

p wll dl s m Mlls

dmd s. M 2 b/d sp s sdld b mpld b sm-

m 2012.32 A s w s

ppl s wk wll b dlpd

qkl lqd- pls, s s

El Fd, Nb, d U Sls, ll

p l s b pdd. As -

g A E

Cmps lk s xpd l-

s xp LNG m Ud Ss

d ss mb dl l

qms. Ts ld qm

mps sk xp z m

Dpm Es O Fssl E

mp s sbj -

d m (FA) w Ud Ss

(s 2).26 Ops lk md

xs LNG mp mls ms b p-

pl m Fdl E Rl Cm-

mss (FERC).27 O dl s

l pp LNG xp ls -

ld U.S. Cs Gd, w, m

spsbls, pds s s d

p ls; d Ppl d Hzd-

s Mls S Adms, w s

jsd ll ppls. Ud Nl

Eml Pl A, LNG xp ls

m ls b sbj ml ws

m Eml Imp Sm,

Eml Assssm d ms

Cl A A, Edd Sps

A..28 (S 1).

C C

T sbl U.S. LNG xps dpds p

bl s l s s-

spp pd, sp,

s, d spm l s.

26 Ts ds ws w b Nmb 2011 FA bw Ud Ss d K, wlds sd lsmp LNG.

27 Ml R, Pl W. Pmk, Ld L, U.S. Nl Gs Exps: Nw Opps, U Oms, CsslRs S, Nmb 2011. (R, Nmb 2011).

28 S R, Nmb 2011 xm dl ls d ppls dd b LNG xps.29 m C d P Rbs, N d : Iss N Am l s mk Dl

C E Sls, Spmb 2011. (Dl, 2011).30 T Bs Es: E Mk Fdmls Rp, Bk E, M 19, 2010.31 K Pk, Dd Fs, d E. H Vds, N Am Mdsm Is T 2035A S E F,

ps d p ppd b ICF INGAA Fd, J 28, 2011. (p://www../Fl.spx?d=14900 ).
http://www.ingaa.org/File.aspx?id=14900http://www.ingaa.org/File.aspx?id=14900


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13

Ud Nl Gs A (NGA) S 3 (15 USC 717b), xp l s m Ud Ss -qs zs m Dpm Es O Fssl E d m FERC. Blw sm pms ms b ppd b l xp l s:

E Eg z1. Iss xp z s dpd p xp b dmd ss w pbl

s. DE s ss pms p ml l lm, d d sbsqppls w d b pbls s.

) A pj s dmd ss w pbl s d m xss bw U.S.d LNG-p .

b) I U.S. ds d ms w s w LNG s b xpd, O Fssl E ms ss pm lss ds s pbl s pbls- ppl Fdl Rs sk pbl mms, pss, d s .

EC z , G 1. A ppsls s, s p ls s xp l s md x-

s FERC zms b ppl m FERC. C s m ls q ls m U.S. Cs Gd Dpm sp. Appd ppls ssd C Pbl C d Nss.

E A1. B zs q l pjs pd mp pbl d -

m, d w Nl Eml Pl A (NEPA).

2. A Eml Imp Sm s dd ppsd mj dl s xpd sl ql m. O mps dld, sm ms b p-pd b l Rd Ds b ssd.

3. Pjs w lss--s mps sll q dm. I ml mps , Eml Assssm ms b ppd d dm EmlImp Sm s ss. I Eml Assssm ds pj d sds s ml mp, Fd N S Imp p s pdd.

4. Pjs pd s mps ll m b pssd s C-l Exlss. Ts ms s pjs d q pp EmlImp Sm Eml Assssm.

C1. D pps dm qd d NEPA, Dpm E d FERC

ms ls d mpl qms pplbl z.

) F xmpl, ls b sdd ld Cl W A, Cl A A,

Edd Sps A, d Nl Hs Ps A. Ts m q l-m ppl s dl, s ll ll.

b) Bsds ml qms, LNG xp pjs m q mpl w s s--ld qms m s s, ld Dpm spsO Ppl S (w s sd w Ppl d Hzds Mls S Adm-s), Nl F P Ass, d Fdl Em Mm A.

1: Appl Pss Nl Gs Exps

S: Adpd m R, Nmb 2011


22/56



14

d sm pd.34 A sml d s

B Sl xs, w

pd s md dsp

dl .35 Wl sppl dll-

s ms dq, mk

qpm d ss sd kp-

ll -pss pmp qpms

d lkl m s m.36

mks dll d mpl qp-

m sl ss k ss.

h C

Hm pl l l d

s dlpm ss s ls s sppl.

Ad Nl Plm Cl

(NPC), s b 75 p ds

pml-ld s llm s

1982 Ud Ss.37 M, w

x s, b 50 p wk

s ds wll b lbl m. T

dmd plm s, d

sls ds

ld, s s , w NPC w

sdbl m s ll

l d s ds.38

Fl ld ss w plm--

dpms p lk s

d dlpm (R&D) d, w s

s l p dql

ppl jbs dbs s.

Wl sm sll pbl R&D d-

s b md p b p-s spp,

ld b, s qs l s -

l b d sm sl ss U.S.

md-. O w d s

s b sdd b Wms O S

Lds d Isms, w s ppsd

pl w ls pms wld

b qd m ps wlls s lds

b d m 15 ds

mpl. Abs s s

, s pssbl dl m

wll sk l l d l s

wlls. I dd ss ppl -

p, ls s b dq

l s s s, pll

Ns, l sms

ppl p sld pmp sml s-

ms sd s p.33

g P

E s s sp -

s dl sd lms d w

l bss l s pd,

m b lms m lbl qp-

m d qld plm s d-

lp s. d s s dll-

lbl U.S. l s s

s mlzd, s g 3 llss. T

sd pd w dll s s

sd s sppl s kp p w

dmd. F xmpl, Hsll Sl

pl Ls, ll m 181 s

Jl 2010 110 s Ob 2011, p-

d sd m 4.65 b/d 7.58 b/

32 W 2011-12 E Mk Assssm, Fdl E Rl Cmmss, Im N: A-3, Ob 20, 2011.

33 MI, 2011. p. 145.34 Pd Rss B, Hsll Sls E s R Cs Fll, Platts, Ob 11, 2011. (p://www.bk.m/

ITNws.spx#Al5402 )35 Fm w w K Mdlk, Fllw, E Sds, Jms A. Bk III Is Pbl Pl, d mmb

Bks E S I Nl Gs sk F, Nmb 15-16, 2011.36 Cmmd Ps, S Css d Hd: A d p pl d p 2012, Mq Eqs Rs, Nmb

11, 2011.37 Pd Dlpm - Rlz Pl N Ams Abd Nl Gs d Ol Rss, Nl Plm Cl,

Spmb 15, 2011. p. 1.38 Ibd.


23/56



15

m s d p dlpm

s dd.

omestic emand actors

I Ud Ss, pl l s xps

wll mp w w pm mks

smp l s: pw--

s d dsl s, ld

pml pd. T psps -

sd l s dmd sp,

mml d sdl ss s sl

sd sl s pd lss s.

P G

Dmd l s l s

s b smld b sd sppl

d lw ps, d b ml

s l-d . T EIA s-

ms l s pw pls wll

60 p w l p dds

bw 2010 d 2035.41

Nw d sd EPA ls wll pl m-

p l dm m l-

d ms l UdSs, d, , mb l s

pw pls b bl. T EPAs Css-S

A Pll Rl (CSAPR), w s md

ll sl dxd (SO2) d s x-

d (NOx) msss m pw pls 27 U.S.

ss b -pl pll

d z dj ss, ws sdld

b mplmd J 1, 2012. Hw

Dmb 30, 2011 ws dld b dl

ppl d s s d w m

djsms. A m w, l- d b dd ppl.

dms q msm bw

sp ds ddl mps d

l-m ds s. E s

d R&D d s w pdd,

m ls b m l b s d-

q sppl plm s mk.

g C

T sssl xp LNG wll dpd p

ss spp s d p-

b pl. C E s lk

xp p 2.2 b/d s m s Sb Pss

LNG ml Ls.39 Dpd

sz LNG ssl, s wld q bw

d spks p wk. I d

mmd s lm l sps, sm d-

ms U.S. ps wll q ddl dd.

O spp-ld s ld s

ssls d dq Cs Gd p-

pd s (xps ms m

Cs Gd Ww Sbl, S, d

Em sdds p ppl); d

p s ls, pll As. Is-

spms As wll dpd p-

Pm Cl, w s l

smll mmd ms LNG ks. Hw-, pld xps l s

mpldxpd b 2014l 80

p wlds LNG ks wll b bl

pss sms, sl dm

dl spp ss As.40

Ms pl p bsls LNG xps

lkl b s-m sqs -

s sm l kp p w

pd ss sl s pd. O

m, s lkl s blks wll b -sld s mks spd d ll s-

39 C Es xp pm m Dpm E llws l pd 1b/d w pssbl xps 2.2 b/d.

40 Mdm-m Ol d Gs Mks 2010, Il E A, 2010. p. 264.41 EIA, Apl 2011. p. 74


24/56



16

Cl Cmbs Rsdls (CCRs):

l l s d

ws b-pds dspsl;

Gs Gs (GHG) sdds: p-

ps ls GHG msss s-

dds w d xs l -

ls. T GHG sdds w

lsd M 27, 2012 d sk

s l lms m -

b dxd ll w pw pls

m. T ls xpd lm

s w l-pwd pls

wl mk l s pls s-

l .

ICF, sl s mdld s p-

l s d s md pj-

s bsd EPAs ppsd ls d

xs l pw pl , sms

l 40 ws (GW)ql

A sd EPA l, d M

d A xs Sdds (MAS), s sdld

J 1, 2015. T MAS

wll ppl zds plls (HAPs)

ld m, d ld, d

pl m m ll pw pls. Ts

sdds, w w lzd Dmb 16,

2011, pjd sl 90 p -

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mmz ml mps;

15%

g 4: P Exs Cl Rd b R, 2020

S: ICF Il


25/56



17

l-d pw pls, m w wll b -

pld b m l-s pw pls.

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bd U.S. l s s dsl s.

T s l sms l 32 p

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EIA, dmd l s dsl

s s pjd w b 27 p bw

2009 d 2035.47

T dsl s s l p-ss w

sp ps. Bs l s s

pm dsk m dsl sms

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1990s d 2000s. Ad Dw Cml,

s ld dsl mps,

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T sl s bm s m dsl pd-s d ml mps p -

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Dmb 2011 p b PwsC-

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Cl pw pl ms wll b -

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m l pls ld) wll

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Vs mdls pjs w ds-

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l s dmd, w wll b pm

plm l. T sms s

l s dmd pw s

m 1.1 / 3.5 /. ICF pjs

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s w l s pw pls

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l (NGCC) plsld ql bw 1.6

d 2 /.43 Dl, sl ls

s mdls s smp, pjs

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Wl ddl dl ml pls -

ml l-d pw pls lkl b m

w s pps, ms pjs ssm

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ll b mplmd. T sl s lkl

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42 Dms Gs Us Pw S, ps b J Bl ICF Bks Nl Gs sk F, As 3, 2011.A ps ICF ssssm pjd 51 GW ms, b wl ppsd ls sw m xbl lppsls, d m l pls xpd m l.

43 Ibd.44 Dl, 2011. p.5.45 Ul Gs, ps b Adm Smsk Ds Bk Css Bd Fm E Isss, M 13, 2010.46 Ibd., p. 101.47 EIA, Apl 2011. p. 68.48 U.S. S Cmm E d Nl Rss; T F Nl Gs, sm G Blz, V Psd, E d

Clm C, Dw Cml; Jl 19, 2011.


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18

dl b s. Wl ACC ds

mk xpl ssmps b sp

U.S. l s sppl

p l s, ls ssms ssd lw

s ps, d sll l--s p

. Wl sm lss m k lm

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bll ddl dl, s, d ll x

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pd b spd s mpld dl

49 Sl Gs: A Rss U.S. M, PwsCps, Dmb 2011.50 Sl Gs d Nw Pmls Ism: Bs Em, Jbs, d U.S. M, Am Cms Cl,

M 2011. p. 19. (Am Cms Cl, M 2011)51 Ibd.52 Cls Eb, W Ds S U M E Pl, Brookings Up-Front Blog, J 27, 2012. (p://www.

bks.d/ps/2012/0127_s__pl_b.spx)
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19

s ql mddl dslls

s s spplm sbs dsl

sp s ls . T

s p ss ssd w GL

pd, w 20,000 bl pd pl

s ql $115,000 p bl p

d p.55 Lqd ls pdd b GL

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mk GL sl m. Wl

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pls sbl sd $10 bll pl

Ls l ld m d sbsl

pl sm qd, w

sk mp w ll l mk, ps-

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l . Dsp s l sbl d

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C

T psps sd l s s

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x ds 30 p s l

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pl l d 2011. Hw, dsp

xs d ppsd pl -

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l s l s lkl

m.

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mp s ss d ll s

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ms ss q l l d-

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l d s sssld lmd ,

lk xs l s, d

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d $70,000 lkl p

wdspd s l s bs

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ds.54 M, m k mps

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T lsl ll l p-

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sl qls.

T psps l ls dd m s-

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53 Al Kpk, Wll Nl Gs Vls B O F?, Rss F, M 2011. p.1354 MI, 2011. pp. 123-124.55 D m ClVw E Ps.


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20

A wll-sppld lbl s mk wll U.S.

xps w pps xps; sm-ll, s mk, w sppls

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s.

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Global Gas Market

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b. (S g 5 d

bw mj lbl l s p

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UK (NBP)

Japan LNG Imports

US Henry Hub

g 5: Bmk Nl Gs Ps U.S., U.K. d Jp ($/MMB)

S: ICF Il

56 EIA, Apl 2011.


29/56



21

ls lq p wld), N-

, d Asl. As sl, l b Id-

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p b 2020.58

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l d md-1990s, Ids d Mls

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ppxml 70 p mp mk.57

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s b dd b m w

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229

311

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Pipeline gas

LNG

g 6: Wld Nl Gs d Flws, 2010 ( bll b )

S: BP Ssl Rw Wld E 2011

57 Wld LNG Rp 2010, International Gas Union (IGU), Spmb 2011. pp. 6-9 (Il Gs U, Spmb 2011).58 Fm w w Lk Sm, E Als, Cmmwl Bk Asl. M 19, 2012.


30/56



22

w Jps l pl. T -

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.61 I m w m l

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pw .62

Wl Jp s dll b l p

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l d 11 p Jps

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m xs sp p

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s N Fld, w w Is S

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s lmd xss sppl m

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d ls Mddl Es LNG xp As,

s xp dl LNG xps s m

s s b smd dmsll. I, w

s wlds sd ls s ss, s

ppsd sl LNG pjs, b s b -

bl mplm m bs ss.

Gs dmd As ms s, ld b J-

p, S K, d w, w d m l ll lbl LNG mps

2010.60 Jp, wlds ls mp

LNG, s s pl s pjd

l s dmd s sl d

Fksm l pw pl llw

qk M 2011. T l d,

w s sd s-m sdw ms

Jps l s, s ls pmpd

59 BP Ssl Rw Wld E 2011, BP, J 2011. (BP, J 2011)60 Ibd. I s mp Ud Ss Nmb 2011 d -d m (FA) w S K s ll b

pjs b ppd xp l s l llwd xp LNG s w wm UdSs s FA. O S K, l s w s p d FA w Ud Ss Cd, Cl, Dm Rpbl, d Mx.

61 A pll Jp dmsd mj Jps pbl s ps s xs l s.Jp pll ds 74% spp l ps-, Nuclear Power Daily, J 14, 2011. (p://www.lpwdl.m/ps/Jp_pll_ds_74_spp_l_ps-_999.ml)

62 E Clls Jp 3.11,ps b K Km, C Ems, Is E EmsJp, pm Hd Us, Ob 21, 2011, Bs, Mssss.

63 Wld E Olk 2011 Spl Rp: A W E Gld A Gs Il E A, 2011. p. 23. (IEA, 2011)
http://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/Japan_poll_finds_74_support_nuclear_phase-out_999.htmlhttp://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/Japan_poll_finds_74_support_nuclear_phase-out_999.htmlhttp://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/Japan_poll_finds_74_support_nuclear_phase-out_999.htmlhttp://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/Japan_poll_finds_74_support_nuclear_phase-out_999.html


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23

s d CBM pd d ddss sss

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l b 2014 wll llw LNG ks s sms, b mp ms

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kms, Mm, Om, d I.

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ls l pssbl LNG smp-

wll b s d sbsl l

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mps d spp dms pd-

, pll l s. T EIAs

lbl sm sl s ss s-

ss Id d C l 63 d

1,275 sl s ss, spl.64 T

l-bd m (CBM) s ss smd b qll s: s-

sssm Cs CBM ss s 1,306 d

sms Ids CBM ss m 71

162 .65 F b s, s sms

l s smld l

s l s pd. Hw-

, dlpm s ss s lkl

b md--l m pps. T l-

d pl m b s

wll d b mdd mmd sl

64 Wld Sl Gs Rss: A Il Assssm 14 Rs Osd Ud Ss, U.S. E Im Adms, Apl2011. p. 4. (EIA, Apl 2011b)

65 Esm C s m: Hj Q, S Rs C Ol d Gs Rss, Ms Ld Rss, Clbd MExpl C, dpd m l ps AAPG Al C S A, xs, Apl 20-23, 2008.Esms Id m: M.P. S d Rks Sx, Ss Cl Bd M Iss Id, Glimpses of GeoscienceResearch in India, p. 233.

66 Ad p m Bs Rs, sl, Jl 7, 2011.


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24

ss Pd B. T s m s ld s

xpd l m Alsks N Slp

Vldz Alsks s s, w wll

b lqd d xpd.67 Ad FERC,

l Cd xp l-

s d sd Bs Clmb:

ppsd 1.4 b/d ml Km (l

pd wld s 0.7 b/d), w -

d 20- xp ls Ob 2011;

ppsd 0.25 b/d l Dls Isld;

d pl 1 b/d l P Rp

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sl s ds), Alsk d Ws

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P Bs.

A

T Al Bs mpss pdml

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Al, Q, d N ppl LNGxps .68

Ep l s mps dmd b

sl Rss s Ep sms

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Rsss w ls l s lds (U

d Ymb), s l s pd s p-

jd s b l -d bw

2010 d 2035.69 Ad Il

E A, xps m Rss wll s

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l s, dmp dmd LNG

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l pd; ll,

--xpd p l

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pd sl Q m-

m s dlpm ld dsp

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s, Dmb 29, 2010, Nbl E,

U.S. l d s xpl mp, dsd

bw 14 d 20 s Isls s

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Es Md xpl

pll smll l s lds. A mb

l l s dss Mzmbq

ls pmpd l s bld s-

lq p Ss

A . T ql (lw sl d

b-dxd ) d lqd-

Mzmb s m mk s s s-

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mdm m.

Fll, xps LNG xp pm Alsk d dlpm LNG x-

p p Ws Cd m pd

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LNG. Al Alsks K LNG xp

l, w s b xp smll q-

s LNG Ns As 40 s,

s b dld mpl, sm mps

dmsd s l-sl xps

LNG m Alsk Es As. O M 30,

2012, ExxMbl, l w s pj ps

BP d CPllps, sld dsp w Gm Alsk dlp s s -

67 Y Rs, Alsk, Exx dl ps w LNG xps, Reuters, M 30, 2012. (p://www.s.m/l/2012/03/30/s-lsk-ppl-dUSBRE8212I20120330)

68 BP, J 2011.69 IEA, Nmb 2011. p. 306.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/30/us-alaska-pipeline-idUSBRE82T12I20120330http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/30/us-alaska-pipeline-idUSBRE82T12I20120330http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/30/us-alaska-pipeline-idUSBRE82T12I20120330http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/30/us-alaska-pipeline-idUSBRE82T12I20120330


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25

s mb b ss d w

d pps l ms

l mb s s. M,

Gms ds l ps

s xs l s, s

s lkld m sl l-

s wll b md p sd

l s smp, b spp

dmd d s ps ( m

pl mpls pl U.S. LNG xps

Ep, s P II).

I dd Rss mps, Ep s lkl

s s LNG mps. Dsp xss

s pmls 42 p-

ld 2009w s l-

s pld mb Ep -

s.74 I s dlpms dd

LNG mp p, sm l

ppl s d sd x-

p dlpm dls. M

s ppsd ppls m Mddl Es,

Cl As d Rss, (Nb d S

Sm, s) sdd -

dl ms l d l-

sl bsls d xpd b m-

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s-Ad Ppl (AP) m lkl

md-m. T AP ppl wld s-

p s m Azbjs S Dz s ld

l Ep k, w

xs S Cd Ppl (SCP) ds.

As s s As, l s dl-

pm Ep m pl l l

ppl d LNG xps As.70 Nw s

ls mj sppl l s Ep

d s pd s pjd s

x w dds b pl.71

Hw, s wll mps pp-

s dl dms pd U.K.

d Nlds, w sll sbsl

pds l s.72

As sl, pps

l l s m Rss wll -

d dld b mmss

Nd Sm ppl, s ppl

dl s Rss w EU. Rss -

s b 31 p Eps l s

mps.73 Wl s l s l-

sp bw Rss d Ep sms

wll , p lsp bw

w ps wll dm w m s wll b

mpd, d w wll b p-

p U.S. LNG xps. Hsll, ms

Rss s xps Ep dpd b

l-m s w s sld l-dxd

ps. Hw, w w LNG s p-

sl dsd U.S. w lbl

lbl mk, s b s sp-

mk d sw sms smss d m m p pls

-p s d b l

sppls LNG. T sl s b sd

pss p Rss s xps d -

sd mk pw p sms

l-dxd s w Gzpm,

Rss s-wd s mp. Gzpm

s d sm s w

s sms, pml Gm; w

70 Ibd., p. 312.71 Ibd., p. 165.72 I s mp l U.K. pd s dl, xps m U.K. l Ep

I ppl bw U.K. d Blm s. (Rl Ep Gs? ps b P Nl,Us Cmbd El Pl Rs Gp E Pl D Fb 24, 2011 Cmbd, U.K.

73 BP, J 2011.74 Ak H, European Natural Gas Demand, Supply, and Pricing: Cycles, Seasons, and the Impact of LNG Price Arbitrage, Oxd Is

E Sds, (Oxd, UK: Oxd Us Pss, 2010). p. 167.


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26

sl s dmd dsp

Al Bs. T dlpm s sp-

sb w

d w sd sppls Rss, Mddl

Es, d N Awll ls mp

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Ss. W ds s sppl ld-

lw sp ps Ep, pp-

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Al Bs sl s dlpm wll ls

s b l-m ps-

p LNG mps Ep .

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m llw. I dd s smll mks,

b Mx d Cl pl mks U.S. l s. Wl s xps

Mx wld lkl m ppl m

xs, Cl pss pl pp

LNG mps m Ud Ss. Cl,

w s -d m w Ud

Ss, l mps m 90 p

s l s m LNG (83 p

w m m Eql G, Ep, d

dd d b 2010).76 O

wld mp Cls l s mps wll b

dlpm sl s A. TEIA sms As sl s ss

Al Bs s mk. G

Es Eps dpd Rss -

l s sppl, sl s ss ld ps-

p m d pll b. Ad-

EIA, Uk d Pldw

smd 42 d 187 sl s ss,

spl b pll sd

dlp sl s sss. Hw, sm-

l l s dlpm As,

l d s bsls wll mk

l-sl sl s pd -m

dl. M, sm ps Ep

s pbl pps sl s pd-

w m dlpm d-

ms ss sm s d s.75

F s bd dl d sm

ml d pbl pps ps

lk swp, l lsl

s sl s pd.

E A

T psps U.S.- xps A-

l Bs s s. I pml

dpds lbl ppl s m

Rss, Al, d Nw d lbl

LNG m Al, N, d Q. I lsdpds dmd s l-

s. Gms ds l

ps- s l s ws pd b

Swzld, w ddd ps s -

l s, d Il, w ddd s

bld w s. I s Il, m

s dmd wll b m b l

s. A sml ds F,

l s m -qs

s l m l pw b w s

mds psdl l w l pl s pm sss, wld

75 A Ep Am Gs C Ps Nmb 15-16, m spks sd pbl pps dl s d sl s pd Ep. (Sl s dlpm b slw m, spks w, Platts Oil &Gas Journal, Nmb 28, 2011.)

76 BP, J 2011.


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27

ms . Wl ddl ss

s sz, ll ds,

d l ss, MI pds pl pl

s s LNG sppl :

MMB s, sms lq ss

$2.15, spp ss d $1.25 (dpd

l ss d sp ds), d

s ss $0.70.79 I s ls mp

sd mps sd xp-

LNG wll d s p spd

wll d m ls 10 12 s,

bd p-pl d l s.

Bsd ss lq, sp-

d s, mmm d

bw l LNG ps d U.S.

p l s ds m l

$3.40 s U.S. LNG s mp.

M sss lsd ps ss

b p dms s.

Hw, xps msls ls lkl

p l s s

ps ddl s dmd. T

l p mpl LNG xps, s wll s

m d -m mpls

LNG xps, s dsssd P II.

774 d ls sl s ss

wld.77 I A dlps s s

ml m, ll xp ds

wld b Cl, b d Cls pl

LNG mp ds.

E g

T dml m ll -

l s xps s p dl bw

dms s d ss mks. I d-

d s dsk, s-

l ddl xd ss ms b k

sd w ssss m s-

bl LNG xps, ld s lq-

, sp, d s. T -

s ddd lq ls s

bw $2 bll d $8 bll , dpd

p.78 I d s s

ls mps lk xp s ms

pl l-m s sl

LNG. sp ss dpd sz

ssl sd m LNG, s spp

l, d ds s l.

Rs b spsbl

sppl d sp-

77 EIA, Apl 2011b.78 R, Nmb 2011.79 MI, 2011. p. 25.


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28

PART II: IMPlICATIoNSof U.S. lNG ExPoRTS

P I s p sd s wll bl Ud Ss xp sd lms LNG. T llws ddsss mpls s xps.

Fm psp U.S. dl -

m, ss mpls s wd ms

pbl s. Ud xs lsl, x-

ps l s s w d

m (FA) w Ud Ss , b

lw, dmd b pbl s d -

z s qd b w md-

dl. Pjs lk z

xp LNG s w FA, w l 96 p lbl

LNG dmd, qd b ppd b

S E lss, pbl ,

Dpm E ds s xps

not pbl s.80 Al l-

l d pbl s s xpll

xs lsl, d pbl

sms b ls m Dpm

E, pbl s lds:

Adq dms l s sppl; Dms dmd l s p-

psd xp;

Em mps xps ( GDP,

sms, d ds);

U.S. s; Jb ;

U.S. bl d;

Il sds;

Eml sds;

Css w DEs pl p-

m mk mp

d81

T s w s w ddssd

P I. T md s s d-

ms d l mpls U.S.LNG xps.

omestic mplications

T dms mpls U.S. LNG xps

ld mp l s ps, l

s p ll, jbs d mpss, d

ll s.

P G

T dms p mp l s x-

ps wll b s dm

80 LNG sss m BP, J 2011; 96 p ds ld S K w s sd b d d mplmd FA m w Ud Ss. F ll x lsl p l s xps s Nl Gs A (NGA) S3 (15 USC 717b), (p://sd.s./sd-/swb.x?d+sw+1316+1440+12++%28%29%20%20)

81 Rdd m sm b Csp Sm, Dp Asss S Ol d Nl Gs, O Fssl E, U.S.Dpm E b S Cmm E d Nl Rss Nmb 8, 2011.
http://uscode.house.gov/uscode-cgi/fastweb.exe?getdoc+uscview+t13t16+1440+12++%28%29%20%20http://uscode.house.gov/uscode-cgi/fastweb.exe?getdoc+uscview+t13t16+1440+12++%28%29%20%20


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29

G l sz

sl s s bs d w

U.S. m, s ss (b

bsl d xp) w ppld l-

bkd ss:

A s, bsd EIAs 2011 A-

l E Olk;

A lw-sl smd lm

(EUR) s, w sl s pd

m w, dlld wlls s 50 p blw

s s;

A -sl EUR s, w sl s

pd m w, dlld wlls s 50

p s;

A m w s, w U.S.

GDP ws 3.2 p s ppsd

2.7 p ssmd s.

G ssmps, -

sls ws spsl wd. T sls

m 9.6 p s (m $3.56 $3.90/

m) dms l s ps 2025 d

xps ( s sl s , lw

xp lms d slw xp w)

32.5 p s ( s lw sl

s , xp lms d xp w). T p pmm

dms l s ps 2025 s-

l bsl s p s-

m s dld 3.

I dd p pmm xp

l s xss s, EIA sd

pjd s-m spk l s ps

s sl LNG xps. As g 7 blw l-

lss, 2015, s LNG xps

, dms l s ps s pdl -l l xp p s d. I lw-

pd s ps pk 2016, 6

b/d xp p s bl 2 s;

w Ud Ss sld xp

LNG. Wl s ll kwldd

dms p s wll sl m l-

sl LNG xps, sz p s

s sbj db, w mb sds

ss pssbl ms. T m-

p sds w lz sls

d lss s xs sds

ssmps d mdls sd w

mk p ss. Blw sls d

mdls mj p sds d

b EIA d sls: Dl, ICF

Il, d N Csl, w

pblsd w sds.

2012 Eg A

I J 2012, EIA pblsd sd -

ld E Isd Nl Gs Exps

Dms E Mks.82 T sd, d-

d qs O Fssl E

Dpm E, lzd d-

xp ss ss d s

bs m ssmps pj p

spss LNG xps. I dd bs-

l s, w LNG s xpd, EIA

mdl sdd d xp ss:

A lw xp/slw w s,

w 6 b/d LNG s xpd,

psd 1 b/d p ;

A lw xp/pd w s,

w 6 b/d LNG s xpd,

psd 3 b/d p ;

A xp/slw w s,

w 12 b/d LNG s xpd,

psd 1 b/d p ;

A xp/pd w s,w 12 b/d LNG s xpd,

psd 3 b/d p .

82 E Isd Nl Gs Exps Dms E Mks, E Im Adms, J 2012. (EIA, 2012).
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/3.90/mcfhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/3.90/mcfhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/3.90/mcfhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/3.90/mcf


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30

w LNG ld b xpd. T sls

EIAs lss ps xm s

LNG xps. I xs LNG mk,

s pll lkl lw-pd

-pd ss wld mlz.

T m ssmp spls UdSs wld xp 6 b/d LNG b 2016.

G , m w, l l

s b ppd xp 2.2 b/d -

FA s s 2015, s lkl

pls wld b ppd d bl

s s m m.84 T l s,

Ud Ss wld b xp 12 b/

d LNG b 2018, sss x

sl s, Ud Ss wld w m

xp lbl lms LNG

l -d lbl LNG xp -p. N l wld s sppl w p

w lbl LNG dmd, b s p

dd wld ls mp w l

-slw s, l s ps

pk 2026, 12 b/d xp p-

s bl 12 s. T mmd jmp

p bms m pd ss

w LNG xp p ss qkl. I

lw-pd s, p l spks l 18 p b bsl s;

-pd s, l s ps

pk 36 p b bsl s. Ts

p mp s xbd Lw Sl EUR

d H Mm Gw ss, s LNG

xps dms l s m-

ks. I ms xm xmpl, -pd

s xps Lw Sl EUR s,

p l s pks m 50 p-

bsl s.83

T w s sld b sdd

w p sls s p mp

sd. T s s ssmp d

3: P Is Dms Nl Gs P Rl Bsl S, 2025

Scenario BaselineScenarioProjected

Natural GasPrice in 2025

($/mcf)

Low Export-

Slow Growth

Low Export-

Rapid Growth

High Export-

Slow Growth

High Export-

Rapid GrowthCase

Reference Case $4.70 10.0% 12.8% 14.3% 25.7%

High Shale EUR $3.56 9.6% 12.9% 13.2% 24.2%

Low Shale EUR $6.52 13.7% 17.0% 20.2% 32.5%

HighMacroeconomic

Growth$4.99 11.0% 13.4% 15.6% 28.1%

S: E Isd Nl Gs Exps Dms E Mks, E Im Adms, J 2012.

83 Ibd.84 O mj LNG xp ppls w ppl -FA xps, wld q x plsFp LNG, Lk

Cls, d Dm C P b ppd Ud Ss xp p ss 6 b/d sld.


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31

EIA p sss, Dl sd ps pds dlp m ss

p dmd w, s s LNG

xps. T wll b mpl d m

d xps mk sppls l-

bl.86 Us dm mdl, w pd-

sd p w dmd,

Dl sd d 6 b/d xps

LNG wld sl , , 1.7 p -

s (m $7.09 $7.21/MMB) p

l s bw 2016 d 2035.

F, Dl sd d wld

b l s s l

s ps sl m LNG xps. As ms

ppsd lq mls x-

pd b Gl Cs, p H

Hb s, w s k bmk l

s m Gl Cs, wll s b $0.22/

MMB b 2035 s sl U.S. LNG xps.

Ts s m dbl p s p-

jd s w m LNG x-

p mls. I Nw Yk d Ills, ls ps pjd s b lss

$0.10/MMB. Ts s pll mp

11 b/d Asl- LNG s x-pd mk d sm m.85

T sd ss s mdls ssmps

ml sm l s pd

s sl sd xp p. T spk

p dpd g 7 s bs -

sm m s pds ls ddl d-

md. I mdl, pds spd ,

p, ddl dmd. F s -

s, ps pk xp p s lld,

b sdl ds. I l, xp- dmd wld lkl d s

pds s ddl pd b-

ml dmd s. As sl,

s ps wld lkl b l d

pk lw ll ssd b mdl.

A l sd lsd Nmb 2011

m Dl C E Sls

ld pd-sps s mdl.I dd d LNG xps wld

pd smll s s ps

40.0%

35.0%

30.0%25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

2031

2034

Reference Case/

Low-SlowReference Case/

Low-Rapid

Reference Case

High-Slow

Reference Case/

High-Rapid

g 7: P Is Dms Nl Gs P Rl Bsl S,R Cs 2010-2035

S: E Isd Nl Gs Exps Dms E Mks, E Im Adms, J 2012.

85 Asl s ppxml 10 b/d LNG xp pjs ld d l sm ds. Ms s p sld d w md xpd b sld sp mk. M 90 p s p s xpd ml bw 2014 d 2017. (As w w lss Cmmwl Bk Asl, M 19, 2012.)

86 Dl, 2011.
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/7.21/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.22/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.22/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.10/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.10/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.22/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.22/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/7.21/MMBtu


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32

dm sppl mdls, ds ll k -

ps

sp ddl pd. As sl,

ks s sm sppl w

pl. T p kwlds p

ms mdld s lss sbls

pp mps xps [] m

l s ps.89 Ts sd ls dd

m dsl

s s mj sm l s llw-

sl s l. T sd ssms

l s smp b dsl

s wll dl b 0.3% p 2035. B

s, EIA mdl ssms dsl

s dmd wll s b l 1% p

sm pd.90 T ICF sd -

s s lls pd sps m

s p. Ud s 6 b/d xp

s, p mp s m $0.52/

MMB s m sps dll

s $0.75/MMB s

lss sps dll s.

w g?

G s sds s l s p-

s w dds , s dl d-m w sd s ms . ( 4

sws mps p mp ss

s mdls.) Hw, plmks

wld b m b dsd

sls d m p.

Ts lds s ms l sls

m p. F s, llw -

ls EIA sd, m mms w

qk l l s ps ld -

s b m 50 p s sl LNG

Ns, w sll xp-

s sm s l s ps

, b wll b m dlpm

d smp l s m b

Mlls sl pl.

T sds lzd p

mps U.S. LNG xps. I As 2010,

N Csl d 2 b/d LNG

xps wld s p s bw

7 d 7.9 p m 2015 2035 l

s w s xps. ICF Il

d As 2011 6 b/d xps

wld sl 11 p ($0.64/MMB)

s l s ps sm p-

d.87 M l, N lsd

sd lzd mp w sp

xp ss. T s s mdld

mp 3.6 b/d LNG xps m

mls N Am: Sb Pss L-

s, Km Bs Clmb, d Cs B

O. T sd s mdld m-

p 6.6 b/d LNG xps m

md xp pjs d 2 b/d

ddd xps m Gl Cs d 1 b/dm Mld.88 Ts N sd d

6.6 b/d LNG xps wld sl 6

p ($0.35/MMB) s l s

ps m 2015 2035.

As w EIA d Dl sds, sls

b N d ICFs sds ms b -

lzd x sp md-

ls d ssmps. Ns s sd

ss m s sppl mdl, w, lk

87 Rs d Em Isss Rld LNG Exps, ICF International, As 17, 2011; d Mk Alss Sb Pss LNGExp Pj, Navigant Consulting, As 23, 2010. p. 5. (p://www..m/~/md/S/Iss/E/C_LNG_Exp_Rp_E.sx). I s mp b N d ICF xpld ss d ss; w, pps s p, w lzd p mps ss d ss w w ms lkl. F s, N sd lzs p mps xps 1 b/d d 2 b/d. G Sb Pss LNG xp ml s ldd 2 b/d, s sd ss xp s.

88 Jd C LNG Exp Pj Mk Alss Sd, Navigant Consulting, J 2012.89 N Csl, As 2010. p. 5.90 Al E Olk 2011, E Im Adms, U.S. Dpm E.
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.52/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.52/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.75/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.64/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.35/MMBtuhttp://www.navigant.com/~/media/Site/Insights/Energy/Cheniere_LNG_Export_Report_Energy.ashxhttp://www.navigant.com/~/media/Site/Insights/Energy/Cheniere_LNG_Export_Report_Energy.ashxhttp://www.navigant.com/~/media/Site/Insights/Energy/Cheniere_LNG_Export_Report_Energy.ashxhttp://www.navigant.com/~/media/Site/Insights/Energy/Cheniere_LNG_Export_Report_Energy.ashxhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.35/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.64/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.75/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.52/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.52/MMBtu


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33

sw b, LNG xps lkl s

dms ps l s, ss

sqs s w mp ss. I

lss, b Dl d EIA d

mj63 p, d b sd-

s xpd l s wll m m

w pd s ppsd dspld smp-

m ss. B s, bw 17

d 38 p sppl l s xp

wld b m b dd dmd, s ps

pss sm dms sms s lss s.

I pw d dsl ss,

p mps LNG xps lkl

mds mps. I pw s, -

l s s sll b sd s bk p

l d l bs-ld . F s

s sd m, s l

ps s sl LNG xps wld b lmd

b s mpss l ls: s

s s bms m xps l-

bk p , pw pds

wll sbs w m s.91 Ad ICF

Il, $0.64/MMB s p

xps. Hw, s d ssmps

bd s mb: ws bsd p

l s d ms xm

ssmps xps d dms s

bs. A m mps lss sld -

ld ssssm p mp

m 2015 2035. W dss bw

s sds, plmks sld d

w ssmps ms smbl xs

l s mk d s lkl d, d

w mdls ms mplx

dms d lbl l s d.

Assm ls lms l s xps

s wll s sbl sppl sps b l

s pds mp sds. I s

mp sppl s

s sds d ps

ms ml pd.

T P

P I dd pw- d -

dsl ss wld ms d-

md wl lbl l s ss. As

4: Sd-b-sd mps A P Imp m 2015-2035 6 b/d

LNG xps (lss ws d)

StudyAverage Price without

Exports ($/MMBtu)Average Price withExports ($/MMBtu)

Average Price Increase(%)

EIA* $5.28 $5.78 9%

Deloitte $7.09 $7.21 2%

Navigant (2010)**(2 bcf/day of exports)

$4.75 $5.10 7%

Navigant (2012)*** $5.67 $6.01 6%

ICF International*** $5.81 $6.45 11%

* P mp EIA sd s s, lw-slw xp s.** T N sd dd lz xps 6 b/d.*** N (2010 d 2012) d ICF Il sds bsd H Hb p.S: EIA, Dl, N, ICF I l.

91 Im d ICF Il d Dl.
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.64/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/0.64/MMBtu


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34

l s dmd ws s pw

s. T EIA Al E Olk 2005

pblsd w wll d ps

w $7/MMBUpjd l s

dmd l s wld s b

70 p bw 2003 d 2015.96

Ulk pw s, w d

bld l-s d d pd

s s ps, dsl s ws

l d b w l s mp

dpd, s ps, d s p l-

l. Bw 2000 d 2005, p -

l s sd b 99 p d LNG mps

m dbld.97 B 2005,

p l p l s ws ppx-

ml 6:1, js blw 7:1 l--s p -

w U.S. pml d plss p-

ds lbll mp.98 T sm

Al Gsp, -Cm Fdl

Rs, d bs l s p

ss N Am s-s ds-

[ws] wkd mp ps.99

S p l s s llpsd.

I 2011, l--l s p ws m

24:1. I 2012 s b . Tdl l s ps s lzd

dsl s. A j sd b PwC d N-

l Ass Ms, ds

d p, d dlpm sl

s ld s ms s m s $11.6 bl-

l p dsk ss 2025.100

Nw sms pml d plss

l s wld sl l p -

s bw $1.66 d $4.97/mw-

(MW), dpd w s s sd s

ml l l. Dl sms

p s l wld b m

$1.65/MW.92 EIA sms l

p mps wll b ml s wll (bw

$1.40/MW d $2.90/MW) xp -

pd xp s.93 T EIA Al E

Olk 2011 sms , w xp

LNG, p l (ss ll -

ls) 2035 wll b $92/MW.94

I l m, l s s sl lkl b

sd m bs-ld . T pd -

s sl s pd, pld w

ms s m s 50 ws (GW)

l-d l d pl bl

d pssbl m EPA ls

s lkl s dmd l s

pw s. Ad sm lss,

-m dmd sd b ms

lds d ls l-d pw pls

ld sl ddl l s dmd

2 b/d.95 G lk mll

d mll bl ls, md

s s ps s lkl sl lm w m l s, l sd

ss wll b sd sms. Nl s

smp pw s s b sd-

d m ps m s

sl m LNG xps s

p-mp pjs. E p sl

s l, w l s ps w ,

92 Dl, 2011.93 E Isd Nl Gs Exps Dms E Mks, E Im Adms, J 2012.94 EIA, Apl 2011.95 Ad p ClVw E Ps Wk Pp.96 Al E Olk 2005, E Im Adms, U.S. Dpm E. p. 159.97 Ad EIA sss.98 Ad EIA sss, 2005 p B Cd l ws $54.57 p bl d p l s H Hb ws $8.67

p MMB, l--s p ( - ql bss) ppxml 6.3:1. T 7:1 sld s d Am Cms Cl p, Sl Gs d w Pmls Ism, M 2011. (ACC, M 2011). O bl d l s l 6 MMB.

99 Rmks b Al Gsp, Cm Fdl Rs, b Nl Pml d Rs Ass C S A, xs, Apl 5, 2005. (p://www.dls./bdds/sps/2005/20050405/dl.m)

100 Sl Gs: A ss U.S. m? PwC w b m Nl Ass Ms, Dmb 2011.
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/4.97/megawatthttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/1.65/MWhhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/1.40/MWhhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/2.90/MWhhttp://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/20050405/default.htmhttp://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/20050405/default.htmhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/2.90/MWhhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/1.40/MWhhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/1.65/MWhhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/4.97/megawatt


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35

d b pdd.102 Isd s

pd xps sls sd p-

d s l s lqds, w s

xps b s s pd b

pml ds.

g

A mj m dms d ss

l s s pssbl s

l s p ll sl m -

s U.S. LNG xps. As g 8 dm-

ss, p ll xpd d

2000s ws s dms s mk

s xpd ps dds.

T ll l s mk

2000s ws ll sd b sppl-dmd

bl. Nl s dmd sd sbs-

ll s U.S. m w d l s

ws wd s mll pbl l

pw . Ts s dmd

dd w d dms sppl

d sd l mps. T

s U.S. l s pd s sld

lss mk ll s 2010. Ad

EIA, sdd d p -l s ( l ssl d ll)

bw 2010 d 2011 ws -d w ws

d 2000s.103 Pl xps U.S. LNG

s sm dms sms w p-

pl ss: ll dms -

l s ps; d xps dms l

s ps l ps sl-

bw lw U.S. ps d

l ps.

T s s m d d q- s lsp bw d-

pd ls

Es d Ss, ll pdd

lbl xps l s.

Opps LNG xps d s -

sms wld b dd s -

sl ss p l s. Hw-

, d sss mp

d U.S. dsl pds l

s mps Ws Ep d As s

lkl b d sl b pjd

s l s ps sl m LNG

xps. As Ep d m As p-

ml pds s l-bsd pds s

s p d l l s dsk, U.S. m-

ps m lkl j s s

d ss mps. E

-d dl smd p d

l 2035 wld sl l--s

14:1.101

T s ls pl sd xps

lp dsl sms. E, lqd b-

pd l s pd sl U.S.

s pls, s pm dsk l,

pml pd sd wd

pds. Ad sd b Am Cms Cl, ds d

bd, 25 p s pd

wld ld $32.8 bll s U.S. m-

l pd. B pd mk

p d s, LNG xps wll d-

dl pd l s lqds (NGL)

pdd ss w d s. A-

d EIA, pd sd

b l 30 p bw 2009 d 2011 s

l s pd m sl sd w

sbsll. E pd s w ll-m , w m mll bls p

101 T Il E A ss p l 2035 b $140. T l p -d m EIAssd s p 2035 (w 6 b/d xps) s l 14:1 ($98/bl:$6.98/MMB). Ol p m Il EAs Wld E Olk 2011.

102 D m EIA Nl Gs Pl Fld Pd sss.103 Ad lls EIA l s p d, sdd d dms l s ps 2010 d 2011 s b 0.54.
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/6.98/MMBtuhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/current/tmp/scratch1355/6.98/MMBtu


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36

T j

T mm d jb mpls LNG

xps dpd w ppl s: s

m d m xpl p dls

d s lbl mk; d

mplm mpls s s, dms l s ps, d dms-

l s pd. T Dpm

E s mmssd sd b

mm d mplm mpls

U.S. LNG xps, w wll b lsd l s

. Ts sd wll pd ql ssss-

m mpls LNG xps

U.S. m d mplm.

LNG xps lkl b b

U.S. m, l pbbl sb ms l U.S. GDP. Exps

U.S. l s wll k d bs

xs pds spls sl m

p dls bw l s

mks Ud Ss, Ep, d As.

Cl ms wll dm w s spls

ms l s p ll d LNG x-

ps. Hw, ss LNG

mk lkl lm ll. LNG s bd

b l ss: ms b lqd d

spd ddd ks b -

mls w s l

ms b slld. Lq ls -p lms w m s

LNG. I p ls- ll -

p, s ls wll ll s

dmd l s, l

p sppl sk wld ll mp

dms s ps. M, lk l d-

, w xpllslls

ml bl pd s

bdd lbl mk, p lm

LNG pd d xp ms LNG x-

ps s-lmd dmd l s l s l s

dms smp. As ms LNG s-

ls bl pj bss

d dpd b l-m s, s d-

md b pd b mk s

d, d lkld ll.

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

1 713

19

25

31

37

43

49

55

61

67

73

79

85

91

97

103

109

115

Price($/Mc

f)

Month Number

1980s

1990s

2000s

Standard

Deviation:

1980s - 0.43

1990s - 0.37

2000s - 1.9

g 8: Nl Gs Ps 1980s, 1990s, d 2000s, b m ($/M)

S: EIA


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