1

2003.10.18

임 준서Paion

Network SoC 산업- “ 미래의 정보사회 : 산업 , 기술과 인력” -

2/70

Agenda

I. Demands

시장에 대한 이해의 필요성Eco-System 의 중요성 – 연못

II. Network SoC 의 기술적 이슈 , 경쟁 및 마켓 상황NP 및 SF 요소기술 소개경쟁관계 – 별자리도Map – 역학관계의 파악 , 전략적인 방향 결정

3/70

Agenda

III. 변화와 대안Telco Crash

생태계 (Eco-System) 의 변화변화에 역동적으로 대응하는 실리콘 밸리 기업들 ; 예 ) PMC-Sierra, Vitesse, AMCC

자금시장 변화Network 기술 시장 대안Network SOC 의 Re-positioning

4/70

Agenda

IV. SoC 산업의 성공적인 미래Global Trend

중국 시장의 부상Eco-System 측면에서 시스템 산업 , Foundry

제품화 Mind 의 기술 개발 - Product Planning

Trend 읽기 – 문화기술 마케팅 – TCP, 시장과 성당교육적인 측면에서

5

•시장에 대한 이해의 필요•통신 사업자의 서비스 변화에 따른 장비 및 부품 수요 •Eco-System 의 중요성

Demand

6/70

Core Router : Hype ?Cisco

GSR12416Juniper M160

CharlotteAranea-1

LucentNx64000

AviciTSR

PlurisTeraplex

AggregatedSwitching Bandwidth

320~640G 160Gbps+ 320G~1.9T 320G~6.4T 400G ~ 36T 320G~19.2T

인터넷 트래픽의 증가 , 3 달에 2 배씩 [ 미국 상무성 ]

WorldCom

2001 년까지 , 대형 Terabit 라우터 , 대용량 고속 스위치 패브릭 , 네트워크 프로세서 개발에 막대한 투자

$215M 2002 가을

7/70

이더넷 신기술 워크샵 2001-5-24

Investment : Bubble ?

8/70

Big Picture

Metro Edge

Enterprise

Last MileAccess

Telco Market

Storage Networking –SAN Fabric, TOE

BSC

MPLS RouterMetro Core

Terabit Core Router

Enterprise Switch

Metro Ethernet (L3 switch)

CDN/ Server Load balancing

Security – VPN, IDS, Firewall

PDSNPSTN

Base stations

EPON (OLT)

EPON (ONU)

VDSLVDSL

SiSi

IP-DSLAMEthernet

802.11 AP

LAN SW

9/70

KT 의 메트로 및 가입자 스위치

G/E

2.5 G

G/E메트로 코어대용량 스위치

메트로 코어중용량 스위치

Ntopia 스위치

백본라우터

2.5 G

1G

1G1G

1G

VOD server

SiSi

SiSi

DSLAM

엑세스스위치

엔터프라이즈스위치

>120Gbps, 48G 포트• Extreme Black Diamond 8808

>36Gbps, 20G+128F 포트• Riverstone 38000

>16Gbps, 4G+70F 포트• Cisco Catalyst 6506, • Riverstone 8600, • Extreme Alpine 3808

>8Gbps, 2G+32F 포트• 로커스 , 미리넷• 다산 , 코어세스 , 텔리언

[KT 메트로 이더넷 망 구성도 ]

FE FE

Cisco GSR12000

GES

10/70

Broadband Access Carrier overcapacity than demand, i.e., carriers are in no condition to purchase any equipment. 전반적으로 침체되었던 네트워크 장비 산업은 2002 년 후반기 VDSL, Metro Ethernet 으로 회복되면서 , 2002년도 평균 42% 성장함 .KT 등 통신 사업자 주도의 VDSL (Ntopia-V) 및 Metro Ethernet (Ntopia-E) 사업 그리고 , Netspot 사업은 Broadband 분야에서 아시아 및 한국의 성공적인 시장을 창출하였음 . 주요 칩셋 벤더의 주된 타깃 시장이 아시아로 이동함 .2003 년의 화두는 여전히 VDSL 고도화 였고 , 향후 중국이 최대 시장으로 부상할 것임 국내 중대형 스위치 시스템은 전량 해외 수입 상황임 .

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Home Network

VDSL,Ethernet,FTTH

ONUEPON-OLT

Splitter16:1~32:1

ONT

EPON – 100Mbps+ Broadband 서비스 , 시스템 , 부품 분야에서 한국이 주도할 수 있는 단계임

20km

Core

DSLAM

Metro Ethernet

SiSi Optical First Mile

•Minimum fiber/space in CO

•No power supply in field

•Downstream broadcast (video)

•100Mbps ~1Gbps Broadband service, cf. VDSL 13~25Mbps, 50Mbps

MTU/MDU

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네트워크 SoC - 통신 서비스 인프라의 핵심 부품

Backbone & Metro – Telco Market Core/Terabit Router - Network Processor, Switch Fabric Metro Ethernet Switch - Network Processor, Switch Fabric

Last Mile Access Market EPON (FTTH) OLT/ONU, VDSL - Ethernet Switch Processor

Home Networking NAT, Home Gateway, Wireless Switch - Low end Network

Processor

Enterprise Market Enterprise Switch - Network Processor, Switch Fabric Security VPN, L7 Content switch - Network Processor

13

• Network Processor• Co-Processor (Classifier, Lookup, Security, Storage)• Switch Fabric• Ethernet Switch Processor

네트워크 SOC 기술의 State-of-the-art

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Network Processor Value PositioningNetwork Processor ? A programmable device optimized for packet processing Header parsing, pattern matching, bit-field manipulation, table look-

ups, packet modification, traffic management Must be done at wire speed, Handle Layer 3-7 tasks

Reduced design cycle for NEV Adaptability to changing standards and protocols being developed–

IPv6, SIP, IPSec, MPLS, DiffServ … Faster implementation of Incremental features Performance “headroom” for future upgrades : 50% in usual

Total Cost Of Ownership

15/70

Forwarding and QoS functionsIngress Egress

Queue scheduling

Per Interface InputPorts Output

Ports

Sw

itch

Fab

ric

WRED

Policing/MarkingDSCP writtenL2/L3/L4 filter

RateLimiting

VOQSchedulerDRR, WFQ

• Usage based Billing Service• Wire-Speed Packet Classification for per-flow rate Limiting • DSCP (Differentiated Service Code Point) written at ingress• Classified and potentially discarded by WRED (Congestion avoidance)• Assigned to the appropriate outgoing queue • Output Scheduling for transmission (priority queuing)

Classification

Drop

IP Lookup

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Network Processing Platform

Switch Fabric

Network Processor

High-Speed Interface

Packet Processor(Lookup & Forwarding)

Traffic Manager(QoS,

Scheduling)

Control Plane (Protocol Processing & Management )

Data Plane Processing

Packet Classifier

Security Engine

Search Engine - CAM

Gigabit Ethernet/

IEEE802.3ah/IEEE802.11/

VDSL

MAC/PHY

CPU

Lookup Memory

PCI, HT, RapidIO, PCI-Ex

CSIX, SPI3, SPI4.2, NPF SI

NPF LA-1

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Function Map

Switch Fabric

Network Processor

High-Speed Interface

VDSL

Packet Processor(Lookup & Forwarding)

Traffic Manager(QoS,

Scheduling)

Packet Classifier

Security Engine

Search Engine - CAM

Gigabit Ethernet

EPONIEEE802.3ah

WirelessIEEE802.11

MAC/Framer, PHY

CPU

Lookup Memory

•Routing (BGP, OSPF)•MPLS Routing•Management (SNMP, RMON, MIB)

•Wire Speed Layer 4~7 Content Inspection•Load Balancing•Per-Flow Classification

•VPN - IPsec•SSL acceleration•TCP termination•Security Filtering•Security Rule

•High speed switching•Non Blocking - VOQ•Reliability/Redundancy •Bandwidth Scalability : 80G,320G,640G

•IP Lookup•IPv6 Lookup•Layer3+ Forwarding•NAT•MPLS•Field Manipulation

•Congestion Avoidance•Priority Scheduling•Bandwidth Policing•Service Level Agreement•Billing, Rate Limiting

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Network Processor IssuesProcessing Bandwidth

1G (1.488Mpps) OC-48 (7Mpps) OC-192 (32Mpps) 40G (120+ Mpps) Deep packet classification, 1M LUT Multi-Processors : 100%+ compute headroom More powerful engines – VLIW, SMP, Dynamic multithreading Extensive use of hard-wired co-processor, classification, etc

Memory Bandwidth Layer 3 10G requires 5GBps + sustained, 6~10 GBps peak

4 * Rambus = 6.4 GBps peak 256 bit DDR-266 = 8.5 GBps peak 300MHz DDR = 9.4GBps peak

Layer 7 10G Need 20GBps sustained memory BW just for packet queuing Combination of embedded DRAM (bandwidth) and external memory(capacity)

Line/Fabric Interface Need higher bandwidth & low pin counts CSIX-L1 scales poorly to 10G - Too many pins SPI4.2 standard for 10G line side

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[ 참고 ] Processing Engine – Old Data

Core Forwarding rate

Clock Process Power

Intel IXP 6 packet engine(StrongArm)

3.3Mpps 232MHz 0.28um 4.3W

AMCC 7120 2 packet engine (nPcore RISC)

3Mpps 220MHz 0.18um 4W

IBM Rainier 16 pico engine (32b RISC)

16.6Mpps 133MHz 0.18um 12W

Cport C-5 16 channel processor (MIPS-1)

16.7Mpps 200MHz 0.18um 15W

Agere 6 VLIW+2FPP L3 OC-48 133MHz 0.18um 2*12W

AMCC 7120 7120 core 220MHz 0.18um NA

EZchip NP1 64 packet engine L7 OC-192 200MHz 0.13um

20/70

[ 참고 ] Bandwidth – Old Data

Line BW Fabric BW Memory BW Next Step

Intel IXP 2.6~3.3Gbps IX 2.6~3.3Gbps

800MBps (64bit SDRAM 256M)

400MBps (32bit 18M SRAM-100)

Move to standard interface SPI4/CSIX instead of IX

AMCC7120 5Gbps ViX 5Gbps 440MBps (32bit SRAM lookup)

IBM Rainier 8Gbps DASL 2x7.5Gbps

1.6GBps (256M DDR ) 800MBps(SRAM)

UniLink

C-port C-5 5Gbps CSIX 6.4Gbps

2GBps (64bit 128M SDRAM), 1.1GBps(16M SRAM-133MHz)

Follow standard interface

Agere 5Gbps Utopia 5Gbps 2.2GBps (64bit SDRAM), 1.06GBps(SRAM)

Standard fabric interface SPI4/CSIX

AMCC7250 5Gbps ViX 5Gbps 2~4GBps ViX to SPI4 conversion chip, Next integration

EZchip NP1 20Gbps CSIX 25Gbps+

>60GBps (5MB on-chip DRAM) CSIX and SPI4.2

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[ 참고 ] InterfaceUtopia (ATM Interface)

Level 1 : 8bit, 25MHz OC-3(155Mbps) Level 2 : 16bit, 50MHz OC-12(640Mbps) Level 3 : 32bit, 104MHz OC-48(3.2Gbps) OIF SPI-3 SPI-4.1 : 64bit, 200MHz OC-192(10Gbps) SPI-4.2 : 16bit, 622MHz OC-192(10Gbps), LVDS 311MHz DDR

CSIX L1 CFrame : 32xn bit(n=1,2,3,4) with 100/200/250MHz up to 32Gbps

32bit @100MHz 32Gbps, OC-48 64bit @200MHz 12.8Gbps, OC-192 128bit @100MHz 12.8Gbps, OC-192

LVCMOS(166MHz), LHSTL(250MHz), Trace Length : 6~8 inch Header(2B) – Header Ext(4B) – Payload(256B) – Parity(2B)

Class (8bit 256 Class) , Destination (12 bit 4096 CSIX port) Xon/Xoff port-level flow control, In-band control CFrame Too many implementation option, Not optimized for 10G

NPF SI : Logical protocol scalable from 10Gbps to 40 Gbps 16 bit LVDS datapath 622MHz NP-NP : 256 ~1M port, 256 class, NP-Fabric : 64K port, 256 class

22/70

tCAM Lookup ProcessingSearch entries that match key(comparand) CAM returns address of the matching location Most designs optimized for 72 bit search, 72-bit

comparand bus Often runs at 2xcore clock or in DDR mode 144bit key Write operation in single memory cycle for five-

tuple lookup 576bit search for IPv6

9Mb

4.5Mb

2Mb

Performance

0.13um$300133 Msps

0.15um$150100 Msps

0.18um$7066~100 Msps

23/70

Flow Classification for QoS

Control packetsVoice flows

FTP flowsHTTP flows

Classification(classify flows)

Rate Limiting(Per-flow RL)

Scheduling(Priority)

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Per-Flow Rate LimitingFlow A sequence of packets with one common characteristics

based on any field at certain layer for some period of time Associate IP packets to flows, provide guarantees for specific flows

Rate Limiting Bandwidth allocation for each Customer/Application/Flow If current rate is within agreed controlled(in-profile), admit

Otherwise (out-of-profile) discard or downgrade packet Bandwidth Provisioning granularity

Packet Classification Identifies the flow to the which an arriving packet belongs. Identification may require complex operations Stores this information internally once, then other blocks of NP

operation for each packet using flow ID

25/70

NPU IndustrySystem vendors want Complete Solutions NPU, search engine, MAC, PHY, fabric

Reduces TCO, project overhead, and design time Easier for new OEMs to enter market Fast market creation using off-the-shelf NPUs

Successful vendors must offer all parts – driven continued M&A

Big CPU vendors jumped in Intel, IBM, Motorola

PHY vendors moving upstream AMCC, Vitesse, Agere Software is a new challenge

Related players acquired SwitchOn, Orologic, Maker, NetBoost, SoftCom, Trillium, QED, SiByte

Startup continue to emerge EZchip, ClearWater, Cognigine, Bay Micro, Internet Machine, …

26/70

Competition Map [NP1]

nP34002G+24F

nP751010G

nP7250OC-48

nP34044xGE

nP71202xGE

Sample June2001

2002.May

May 20012000

2000

3rd Generation 4th Generation

nP757010G

nP7270OC-48

0.13um Q2 2002

2003

AMCC7250Same 7120 core220MHz, 0.18um2 SPI3 (2GMII or OC48c) Duplex10Gbps TM (5700) on Line cardViX 5Gbps (no CSIX)2~4Gbps (Memory BW)$300

AMCC 71202 packet engine(nPcore RISC)

220MHz, 0.18um

3Mpps, 5Gbps (line rate)

ViX 5Gbps (Fabric interface)

440MBps (32bit SRAM lookup)

Strong Compiler, Design Win Winner

nP34502G+24F

nP34544xGE

Sample 3Q03

Sample 3Q03

NP Pioneer

Integrated Switch

AMCC (Market 40%)

AMCC nP7510•0.13um Full-Customized nPcore•10G (Simplex) Sample 4Q01•Six engine @ 330MHz•ViX/SPI4 conversion chip•More Headroom •Ingress/Egress 2K Flow each

AMCC nP7570•SPI4.2 Duplex version•Biggest Competitor IXP2800

•StrongArm, 3Mpps@200MHz•IXBUS (External MAC)•3rd software – Teja, IPinfusion,LynuxWorks•SDKv2.0 May/2001 (free)•C compiler $2000/site•Aggressive design win Push

•Simplex OC-48

•7Mpps @600MHz

•CSIXL1 over SPI3

•0.18um, Xscale based

•$200~300, Sep. 2002

INTEL ( 11%)

•10G (Simplex)

•30Mpps with 16 packet engine(1.4GHz)

•700MHz Xscale at 0.13um

•CSIX over SPI4.2

•>$400, Apr. 2003

•2800 + Security

IXP1200 IXP2400 IXP2800 IXP2850

27/70

Competition Map [NP2]

NP4GS3 NP4GX

IBM (19%)

•4 GbE, OC-48•32bit Utopia, CSIX•MIPS-based compiler•233MHz 0.18um•Production 2001, $400~500

Motorola (15%)

4 GbE, OC-48•32bit CSIX•266MHz 0.15um•Production 2002, $450•Traffic Manager Q-5 ($575)

1 GbE or 8 FE•16bit Utopia•180MHz 0.15um•Production 2002, $200•Traffic Manager Q-3 ($235)

10 Gbps (Simplex)•600MHz 0.13um Custom design•SPI4.2 •Sample 2H03 with Q-10

NP4GS3(Rainier)•4GbE MAC•PowerPC 405 + 16 packet engine•8 Gbps line, 2x7.5Gbps fabric (DASL)•Difficult to program - No compiler, support customer base•Limited performance and poor scalability•0.18um, $400•2001/Q1 Production

•4 GMII with CSIX/UDASL•0.13um •Dropped

Agere ( 9%)

Payload APP550 APP750

PayloadPlus•5Gbps, 3chip Solution ($585)

•High-end ATM applications

•On-chip SAR (OC-48 speed)

•Scale well OC-192

•TSMC 0.18um Full custom, Late/2001

APP550•Duplex(OC-48, 4GbE)

•TSMC 0.13um

•266MHz

•$550, 2Q03 Volume

•Traffic Manager $550

APP520•Duplex (2GbE, OC-48)

•$195, Apr. 2003

APP750•Simplex (10Gbps)

•SPI4.2

•Connection to PI40

•Agere 0.16um

•Sample 2003

•NP+TM (860+$700)

C-5 C-5e C-3e C-10

28/70

NPU Industry UpdateNPU Market Forecasting NPU Market $1.5B @2005 [Cahners In-Stat, 2002] NPU Market $728M @2005 [Gartner Dataquest, 2002]

NPU Market 2002 $65 million (total Revenue) - A far cry from the hundreds of million dollars

that IC maker till believe is possible 600 design wins @2001 leads to $65 million @2002 Market is questionable with annual $50 million spending

NPU Player AMCC market leader : 38 % Intel : 200 design wins Motorola : 15% IBM : 19%, High-end, but pulled out Agere : Late player in IP, but actively Vitesse : pulled out from long-haul business Many startup ceased operation, even Big player pulled out

Key Issues What is sweet-spot application? Storage, Security, L7 for IDC Who will be remained? Alternative? 10G NPU, Access, Wireless

29/70

Cypress/Lara

EZchip NP-1

SwitchCore CXE-16

Galileo GalNet-3

2.5G NPU

10G+ NPU

1G NPU

AMCC nP7120

AMCC nP7250

BroadCom SB12500

MindSpeed CX27470

Paion GEP2C02

Intel IXP2800

AMCC nP7510

Agere APP750

Silicon Access

Lexra

Internet Machine

Bay Micro

Xelerated Packet

Paion GEP2F24

Intel IXP1200

40G NPU

EZchip NP-2

Co-processor

SwitchOn

CAM

Vitesse IQ2000

IBM Rainier

CognigineClearwater

Allayer AL1032

ClearSpeedAcorn

Solidum

Fast-Chip

MUSIC

NetLogicSiberCore

Constellation

IDT

Wintegra

Motorola C-5

Agere APP550

Intel IXP2400

Silverback

Trebia

Alacritech

Aristos

Adaptec

Storage processor (TOE, iSCSI, FC)

Qlogic

30/70

[ 참고 ] Market Size and Market Share

[Dataquest, 2002]

31/70

tCAM Lookup Processor IDT : Current market Leader

Major wins for Cisco, Acquiring IBM solution 18Mb & LA-1, 100Msps, TSMC 0.13um, Sampling [2002.9] 250Msps version 18Mb Sample Planned [1Q03]

Cypress/Lara : 2nd leader NSE1000/2000 - 18Mb & LA-1, 233Msps, Sample [4Q02] Leverage Ayama technology M&A [Feb. 2002]

NetLogic : aggressive performance 18Mb NSE Sample Second-source agreement with Micron[2003.1] Micron pulled out [2003.3]

SiberCore : superior 18Mb, 9Mb+LA-1, 288bit search with 50Msps, $250, Sampling [2002.8] Ultra 18Mb Sampling [4Q02]

KLSI : Early lead with 4.5Mb 9Mb delaying with competitors shipping 18Mb Retreat from tCAM market at Jan/2003

Micron/Music : Losing ground Acquisition of Music - for low-end tCAM, 2002 Abandon internal development, Partnership with NetLogic But, Micron pulled out from tCAM market [March 2003]

32/70

Packet ClassifierL4~7 Classification ChipApplication for Content Switching, Firewall, Virus scanning, Intrusion Detection

Rule memory

PMC ClassiPI 2.5Gbps On chip (16K) Layer 7 at lower rates, Based on SwitchOn

IDT/ Solidum PAX.port

2.5Gbps 3 x64bit ZBT SRAM

First, but limited appeal

2.5Gbps (SPI3, 2 GbE)

TSMC 0.18um, June 2002 Sampling, $199

Solidum M&A (2002.9, $10M)

Fast-Chip Policy Edge

10Gbps On chip (16K) Powerful, Not Yet

Sample 2001.10, $450

Closed Operation

Hifn MFA 4Gbps PC133 SDRAM Late Player

0.18um, $350, Sampling 2Q02

M&A (2000.5, Appititue)

SafeNet ReGXP2G

2.5Gbps On Chip (1MB), 8K rule

Better than PMC, Competing IDT

2.5Gbps (SPI4)

Sampling 4Q02, M&A (Raquia, 2003.3, $7.5M)

33/70

[ 참고 ] Security Engines Encryption Engines best suited for IPsec VPN applicationsIntegrated high-speed encryption engine with Network Processor will drive futureGbps IPSec, SSL acceleration

Broadcom : BCM5850 current fastest IPsec chip 4.8Gbps IPsec (3DES, SHA-1, AES) PL3 interface to BCM1250 processor 2002 Oct Sample, $520 Move toward integrating security chip into other products

Cavium NitroxII First flow-through 2~10Gbps IPsec & SSL performance 5Gbps IPsec, 38,000 SSL 2002.4 Sampling, $295~$795

HiFn HIPP-3 Market leader in security, but lost the technology leader to Cavium, Corrent, and Layer N Single chip (Encryption, Classification) 20Gbps IPsec at 10GbE Flow-through SPI4.2, HT, PCI-X Sample Early 2003 Merging Appititude, MeterFlow, into Security processor

Deep packet analysis after packets are decrypted 10,000 or more SSL handshaking per second

Intel 10Gbps On-chip encryption engine with $245 premium SHA, 3DS, AES for IPsec, SSL application General Sample 2Q03

34/70

1

N

1

N

Switch FabricEgress Queue(OQ)

Configuration

Request Uni/MulticastArbitration

Flow Control

Ingress Queue(VOQ)

Scheduler

Crossbar

1

N

Grant

1

N

1

2

3

N

1

2

3

N

1

N

1. Ingress data when there is no backpressure signal, i.e., queue is not full

2. Each ingress Q requests for cell transfer to Egress port

3. Ingress Request Generation Block generates and send requests to destination ports

4. Grant Generation Block selects one request from ingress ports and grant a transfer

5. Start cell transfer

35/70

Switch Fabric RequirementSwitching Bandwidth Increase Single stage 40~80G with 16 or 32 ports (Today) Need 320G+, Terabit Scalability required Shared memory : 80Gbps physical limit? Crossbar : High speed implementation, intelligent scheduling

Efficient Scalability Multi-stage architecture is inevitable for 10s of Tbps router - bit-slicing

method is limited Performance is a factor of flow control, priority schemes, latency and

Non-blocking behavior for Unicast/Multicast/ Broadcast traffic

Total Cost of Ownership Number of chips, power consumption, Multi shelf interconnect Low Power high-speed Serial Technology N+K redundancy trade-off is driven by system cost

Support for multiple services IP, Ethernet, ATM, TDM

36/70

Revenue 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 CAGR(%)

Multigigabit and Terabit Routers 1,781 3,525 5,738 8,250 10,868 67.9

Gigabit Ethernet Switches 3,263 5,756 8,560 11,126 13,812 76.2

10-Gigabit Ehternet Switches 0 71 714 1,784 3,569

Optical Cross-Connects 321 536 1,135 1,870 2,658

DWDM System 7,736 10,761 13,927 15,320 16,104 27.6

Total System 13,101 20,649 30,073 38,350 47,010 49.1

Total Switch Fabric chipset 328 516 752 959 1,175 50.0

System Revenue Forecast [Gartner Dataquest, October 2000] (Unit : $ Million )

[ 참고 ] Market Forecast [2000]

2000 2001 2002 2003

Fast Ethernet Modular/gigabit ethernet switch 1000 1200 1400 1500

Server access management 10 100 150 200

WAN core switches 500 600 800 900

Remote access server concentrators 100 200 300 200

DSLAMs 10 100 150 200

Edge/core routers(gigabit/terabit IP) 20 50 80 100

Enterprise routers 100 100 100 100

37/70

Switch Fabric Market Update [2003]Market Various analysts projected it to exceed $ 1 billion by 2004, with

CAGR 60% Market was too much over forecasted [Gartner Dataquest, 2000]

Service Provider Router Market [Synergy Research Group, 2003] But as we enter 2003, telecom continues to be moribund New chassis design launches are important for switch fabric

market; switch fabric is one of the first architecture decision point

38/70

Fabric Trend UpdateMore system upgrades than new chassis

Cap-ex spending is down Design-win momentum slowing

Long-term fabric market is healthy Most OEMs using merchant fabric silicon from in-house ASIC New design will start again on 2004 for new box (06)

Backbone product design cycle : 6~7 years, last cycle was ’99 Volume and prices continue to decline

Slowdown forcing consolidation Alliance are critical for success

Optimize cost/performance curve Integrated fabric and Traffic Manager Focus shifted from 10G to 1~2.5G application

Trend toward standard interface Standard CSIX/SPI allows flexible choice of NPU CSIX-L1 for OC-48, Many options in the spec NPF-SI addressed 10G applications

39/70

Switch Fabric Players PMC-Sierra

Pulled out Fabric and network processing business But the ace up MPC-Sierra’s sleeve could be microprocessor division

IBM 10Gbps to 320Gbps, So far leader in fabric market PowerPRS fabric marketed together with PowerNP network Processor Pulled out Fabric market, Sold to AMCC at $47 million

Vitesse Leading incumbent vendors GigaStream offers leading integration and power dissipation at OC-48 TeraStream has less competitive feature sets and lags in throughput

AMCC Through acquisition, AMCC provides total solutions Latest product, nPX5800, scales to 160Gbps being cancelled PowerPRS will replace 5800 Yuni networks, fills the 640Gbps fabric solution

Agere Third generation fabric Pi40, first commercial multi-terabit switch fabric Leading product at throughput of 320Gbps and above With 10Gbps NPU, Agere offers all the major components of router designs

Startups Mindspeed, ZettaCom, Erlang, Paion Many a startups pulled out PowerX, TransWarp, PetaSwitch, Tau, TeraBlaze, TeraCross

40/70

AMCC 550020/40Gbps

2001 2002 2003

Vitesse GigaStream 20/80Gbps

Vitesse TeraStream80/160Gbps

Agere PI4080G/2.5Tbps

AMCC nPX8005

IBM 64G40/80Gbps

Competition Map [Switch Fabric]Switch Fabric]

PMC TTX

Mindspeed iScale40/320Gbps

IBM Q64G160/320Gbps

AMCC Npx580020/160Gbps

IBM EQ+

Vitesse CS32/64Gbps

•80Gbps(2SF+8QM)•160Gbps(4SF+16QM)•2Q/02, CSIX, 16class•$1154+$690

•80Gbps(1SF+4QM)•2.5Tbps(32SF+128QM)•2Q02 Sample•Agere 0.16um, $1100•320Gbps(8SF+ 2SC+QM)

•640Gbps(16SF+ 4SC+QM)•1.2Tbps(32SF+8SC+QM)

•20Gbps(1SF+ 1QM)•160Gbps(8SF+ 4QM)

PMC ETT1 320Gbps

Agere PI-X20/80Gbps

•40Gbps(1SF+ 4QM)•80Gbps(2SF+ 8QM)

1.2Tbps

640Gbps

320Gbps

160Gbps

80Gbps

•1Q/02, Utopia, 8class

•$240+$400

•2Q/01

•160Gbps(4SF+16QM)•320Gbps(8SF+32QM)•1H/02

2.5Tbps

ZettaCom Internet Machine

TAU

TeraCrossPetaSwitch

Marvell

Broadcom

•40Gbps(1SF+2QM)•320Gbps(8SF+16QM)•TSMC 0.18um

•Pisces 40/1.2Tbps•320Gbps(3chip)•Sample 1H02•UMC 0.15um

•Gemini•40/640Gbps•3Q02

•Prestera FX9130•80G/5Tbps•2003

•Glimps 1000•80G/1.2Tbps•Intel FAB + IXP2800

TeraChip•160G/1.28Tbps•2003

•40G(1+4)•320G(8+32)•640G(16+64)•3Q02

•80/640G

•40/640G

Erlang

•80/640G

41/70

Switch Fabric Class분야 가입자 및 에지 메트로 코어

대역폭 20 ~ 80 Gbps 40 ~ 320 Gbps 80 ~ 640+ Gbps문제점

칩 가격 경쟁력 집적도 , 확장성 고성능 , 대용량 포트 , 전력소모 , 확장성

주요 경쟁사

AMCC nPX5800

20 Gbps

160G (8X, 4Q)

Vitesse TeraStream

40 Gbps

160G (4X, 16Q)

ZettaCom IXS250

40 Gbps

640G (16X, 64Q)

Vitesse GigaStream

20 Gbps

80G (4X, 8Q)

IBM PRS-64G, Q64G

40 Gbps

320G (8X, 32Q)

AMCC nPX8005

40 Gbps

1.28T (32X, 8+128*2Q)

MindSpeed iScale

40 Gbps

320G (8X, 16Q)

Agere PI40

80 Gbps

2.5T (32X, 128Q)

42/70

[ 참고 ] Fabric Architecture ComparisonProduct Link speed Switching

BandwidthAggregate Bandwidth

Switch Architecture Cell/Frame Interface

IBM PRS64G

32x32@OC-48

128Gbps 256Gbps (2chip) Single stage shared memoryVOQ , 4 level priority

Fixed/Variable (80B~160B)

DASL 500MHz

IBM PRS-EQ

40~80Gbps 320Gbps (4chip) 4class, SP, VOQ(1024 cell, 40KB), OQ(512cell), 4 shared memory bank(1024 row)

64-80B UniLink 2.5GHz

AMCC nPx5800

16x16@10Gbps

40Gbps 320Gbps (8module)

Shared memory, VOQ 256 Queue, 4 class, Strict Priority

64B Packet/Cell ViX v3 (VIX to SPI-4 phase 2 conversion)

AMCC nPx8000

32x32@2.5Gbps

320Gbps 1.2 Tbps Crossbar, 1024 VOQ (128 port, 8class),, Two * iSLIP, Channelized Max. Matching

Fixed cell (64 / 80B )

SerDes

Vitesse VSC882

32x32@OC-48

80Gbps 320 Gbps (4 chip)

Crossbar, 16 class, VOQ (32+1, 2Mb), OQ(256kb),

80B Variable/Fixed

CSIX (plan)

Agere PI40 32x32@2.5G, 64x64@2.5G

80G, 160G 320G (20chip), 2.5T (160chip)

Shared memory+Crossbar 3 stage Clos, VOQ – 8K cell(UC), 1K Cell(MC)

Variable/Fixed (64,72,80B)

ZettaCom ZEST-IXS

16x16 @OC-48

40Gbps 640Gbps (16 +64chip)

8class, SP, Crossbar, 1K Cell buffer for 256 Q(UC: 4 class*64 port, 8class*32port), 2Q(MC:8 class)

68/80B, Fixed Cell

CSIX : 64bit 250MHz

MindSpeed iScale

16x16@OC-48

40Gbps 320 Gbps (24chip)

8class, SP, WRR, Crossbar, 2.5Mb shared memory buffer for VOQ(512Q/UC,16Q/MC) & OQ (64Q/UC,32Q/MC)

Fixed cell (72B) Skyrail 3.125GHz

43

•Retrospect •Telco Crash•생태계 (Eco-System) 의 변화•변화에 역동적으로 대응하는 실리콘 밸리 기업들•자금시장 변화•Network 기술 시장 대안•Network SOC 의 Re-positioning

변화와 대안

44/70

32 64 128 256 5121684

2

3

4

5

6

7

Intelligence (Layer)

Bandwidth (Gbps)

139Cisco Catalyst 6513

Cisco Catalyst 7606

144 160Cajun P882

32 64

32

96 256

40 60120

120

Extreme Black Diamond 6816

Riverstone RS38000

Foundry Big Iron 15000 Fast Iron III

Extreme Black Diamond 6808

Foundry Fast Iron II+

Riverstone RS8600/ RS16000

Foundry Fast Iron II

Extreme Alpine 3808 Summit7i

4 8 9 56F5 BGP-IP

Nexsi 8000

Alteon 180+

32Arrowpoint CSS1100

24 48

Intel WebICCustomASIC

MMC

In-House ASIC

Intelligent and SecureIntelligent and SecureGiga/Terabit BackboneGiga/Terabit Backbone

Galileo GalNet-3

Next Generation Mobile InfrastructureNext Generation Mobile Infrastructure

Multi-Service PlatformMulti-Service Platform

Network SOC Roadmap

Xelerated Packet DeviceEZchip NP-2ClearSpeed

EZchip NP-1IntelLexraAgereAMCC nP7510Internet MachinesSilicon AccessClearwaterCognigineBay MicroAMCC nP7250

Vitesse IQ2200MindSpeed CX27470BroadCom SB12500

Motorola C-5IBM RainierVitesse IQ2000

Intel IXP1200AMCC nP7120

IntelBroadComAcuteAllayer AL1032

IntelSwitchCore CXE-16

Metro Ethernet BroadbandMetro Ethernet Broadband

Cisco GSR12416

JuniperM160

CharlotteArenea-1

LucentNX64000

AviciTSR

PlurisTeraplex

PMC-sierra ETT1

AMCC nP5800

Power X SX-16

ZettaCom ZEST-IXS

IBM PRS64G

MindSpeed CX27302

Paion GES0032

Agere PI40X/C

PMC-sierra TTX

IBM PRS-EQ

Vitesse VSC882

AMCC nP8000

Velio VC2002

Paion MOSAIC

Foundry ServerIron800

IronCore ASIC

GEP4C04

2001.10.17 전략기술개발사업 기술기획

2.5G NPU

10G+ NPU

1G NPU

64G SF 320G SF 640G SF

Retrospect Retrospect

45/70

46/70

Telecom CollapseTelecom CollapseLargest Network equipment buyersCapital spending cut from $116B(00) to $46B(02) :60% dropTelco revenue $197B for voice, $63B for data [2001 US]Carriers spend 15% of revenues on equipment Cut off 500,000 jobs in two years 61 service provider bankruptcies11 of the top 25 money losing firms in 2001 were telecom Total $107B losses $470B of debt $

Not going to return to the late 1990s in a near-term recoveryNew business strategies are required

47/70

ImpactImpactEffects on Vendor DSL, wireless, cable vendors devastated –

customers collapsed Components awful – no new design wins Optical very bad – revenues off 80% Core routing bad – revenues off 50%

Effects on Financial Market 60,000 jobs lost in investment banking since 1/2001 - no

acquisitions or IPOs 2,500 companies were acquired or went public in

the 1996-2000 boom Over 10,000 venture-backed private companies now At least 7,500 (75% or more) will run out of money

in 2002-2005

48/70

AMCC

Broadcom

Motorola

Intel

Power X

ZettaComInternet Machines

Agere

EZchip Silicon AccessWintegra

MarvellVitesse

생태계의 변화생태계의 변화

Zarlink

49/70

Market Value ErosionMarket Value Erosion

Leader Market cap (B) 9/30/00

Market cap (B) 9/30/01

Market cap (B) 9/30/02

Chip BRCM+PMCS+ AMCC

$114 $9 $6.5

Optical JDSU+GLW $177 $17 $6.2Network Vendor

JNPR+CIEN+SCMR+SONS+RBAK+FDRY+EXTR

$158 $10 $7.5

Major CSCO+LU+NT $677 $127 $105

ILEC BLS+Q+SBC+VZ $452 $407 $209Total $1578 $569 $335

50/70

Stock Market

51/70

AlternativeAlternative

Find the bottom

Look for a safe niche

Hibernate and wait for an upturn

Seek government intervention

Explore non-US opportunities

Proper market & technology Vendors/investors forced to abandon innovative next-

generation products Telco spend money to save money, not for new services Go after enterprise market instead? What about consumer/residential market?

52/70

Alternative Technology .. Alternative Technology ..

Still Most Promising Security (SSL/VPNs, firewalls, IDS, identity management, attack

mitigation) Wireless (WLANs, roaming, fixed broadband) Storage networks (NAS, SANs migration to Storage networks

over IP)

Still Must Switching (metro, more VPN “flavors”) Sell to technologically-backward incumbents New SONET and MSPP , softswitches

Lagging VoIP (SIP, ENUM, virtual PBX services) Transport (10 Gig Ethernet) Optical (40 Gig SONET/SDH, optical transmission, GMPLS)

53/70

Example: Example: Fusion of Home Network and Fusion of Home Network and Entertainment ClusterEntertainment Cluster

With broadband growth starting to slow, Telco’s are serious about investigating the smart home network segment for value added broadband services -- Residential gateway Integrates cable modem/router/wireless access point Home networking has become a bigger focus of the CE industry Products are emerging to enable connectivity between the home data

network and the entertainment cluster at reasonable price point The next wave of interconnectedness between devices will not for basic

data/broadband sharing, but instead for the fusion of the PC and entertainment worlds in the form of media center

Silicon vendors rush Standard Activity : 802.15 Microsoft – the biggest splash with the media center edition of XP Intel – media center reference design and the push to get CE vendors to

create a new product category around the media center Motorola - connected home

54/70

Example: Example: Home Networking

Switching8 x FE

UWBWiFi1394

CPUUWBIEEE1394802.11

FirewallSecurity

EPON MAC

NPU

Disk Array(Server)

EPON(FTTH)Super VDSLMetro Ethernet

PCI

BillingRate-

limiting

Home Media Server

System memory

FE PHY

802.11 AP

Optional IPSec SA and SSL

Content memory

55/70

802.11 AP

63 m

Example: Example: Wireless+Security

QoS with guaranteed SLA, Bandwidth rate limiting Application-based flow classification for VoIP and streaming media AP & L3/L4 Load Balancing

Wireless Mobility Security Encryption for WEP, TKIP and AES, Kerberos Security VPN(L2TP/IPSec) Wireless Management

Serial and Power over Ethernet

56/70

Example: Example: Wireless/Mobile Coexistence

E1/T1

E1/T1

Voice Network

MSC: Mobile Switching Center

HLR/VLR

BSC

Base Station Controller

PSTN

Internet

ATM/IP

PDSN

Packet Data Serving Node

Fast Ethernet

HA

OAM

AAA

Data Network

BTS 1

BTS n

Radio Access Network

IWF

E1/T1

Data Network

802.11 AP SiSi

Wireless Switch

Metro Ethernet Switch

Roaming / Handoff Wireless LAN

57/70

Repositioning: Ethernet Switch ProcessorMarket

GbE switch silicon revenue : $348 million in 2002, $540 million 2004, and $1.063 billion in 2007, 25% CAGR, [IDC, March 2003]

Broadcom and Marvell owned 90 percent of the market in 2002, the split was about 60-40, Mostly Fast Ethernet market

Sweet-spot : 24/16/8 port Until now, GbE switches were considered to be too expensive for all but enterprise

applications. However, GbE-enabled laptops, PCs and network interface cards (NICs) are driving the cost of GbE to all-time lows. This has accelerated the demand for higher bandwidth GbE switch performance across all segments of the market, further increasing volumes and reducing cost.

Player Broadcom – announced 24 port and 16 port GbE switch on Sep. 2003, and provides 4-,

5-, and 8-port GbE switch with integrated PHY, General sampling Oct. 2003 Marvell – Announced 24 port GbE switch, Prestera-EX242, on Feb., Integrated

SERDES with 24 port GbE on Apr. 2003, Vitesse – announced Stapleford(VSC7303) – 24 port GbE switch chip, doing Layer 4

processing on April. 2003, Announced Heathrow-II, 16 port GbE on 2002 Spring Others : Zarlink, Realtek, ADMtek, SwitchCore, Via, Paion

Issues Integration up to Layer 3, Filtering. SERDES and PHY consideration in future Cost : < $6~8 / GbE port Power : < 0.2 ~0.25 watt/ GbE port Foundry : 0.13um CMOS process

58/70 2002 2003

Competition Map [Ethernet Switch Processor]

VITESSE

MARVELL

BROADCOM

40/160Gbps

16GE

24GE

M&A(Sitera) M&A(Exbit) Drop(NPU)

CrossStream

20/80Gbps

M&A(Galileo)

4G+48FE

24GE

24GE+ SERDES

80G~5Tbps

2G+24FE

13GE24GE40~640Gbps

M&A(Allayer, SiByte)

Prestera EX242$200+

Prestera EX241$600

BCM5633

BCM53450.13um

BCM5615

GigaStream

TeraStream

VSC7303(Stapleford)

VSC7301(Heathrow-II)

59/70

New Roadmap

60/70

61

•Global Trend•중국 시장의 부상•Eco-System 측면에서 시스템 산업 , Foundry •제품화 Mind 의 기술 개발 - Product Planning•Trend 읽기 – 문화•기술 마케팅 – TCP, 시장과 성당•교육적인 측면에서

SoC 산업의 성공적인 미래

62/70

Global TrendFTA 로 인한 경제 글로벌화 가속 IT 버블 붕괴 , 인력구조조정 일본 - 통합화 , 미주 / 유럽 - 공동개발 Alliance 활발

Foundry 산업 12” Fab. 건설비용 25 억불 , AMD+UMC, STMicro+Philips 합작 추진 Infineon SMIC 투자

차세대표준주도권 Core Open Standard 화 -ARM, MIPS, SH, TI, StarCore, Trimedia

중화권 급부상 반도체 시장 아시아 비중 증가 (2002 년 40%) 아시아 시장의 重要성 대두 - “ 왜 우리가 한국 등 아시아에 Behind 되고

있는가 ?” “ 연방정부가 나서야 한다 .” [NGN, Broadband session, 2002] 중국 2005 275 억 ( 세계시장의 14%), 미 / 일본 - 비중감소 대만 : Foundry-> SoC 로 사업확대 , Fabless Design House (> 1 억 $ ) 10 개이상 중국 : Foundry 본격진출 , 대만에서 중국으로 Foundry 위주로 산업

개편 미국 / 한국 / 일본등 - 위기로 대두

63/70

Network Eco System

Bandwidth Service, Culture Creation

Revenue Generation, Value Creation, Recovery

End-to-End intelligence, TCO Minimization

Silicon cycle out-sourcing, End to End Solution,

Market Window

eBay AOL Yahoo

MCI China Telecom

CISCO Nortel

Vitesse

PMC

AMCCBroadcomIntel

Daum

KT

NHN

Comcast

HuaweiRedback

AgereMarvell

Motorola

네트워크 생태계의 건강의 중요성 – Otherwise, arteriosclerosis BCN (Broadband Convergence Network) 성공적 로드맵 서비스의 발전 , 표준화 , 시스템벤더 , SoC 의 구현 TCO 최적화를 위한 Embedded Software 및 Foundry 발전의 연계 SoC 발전을 위한 테스트베드 시스템의 투자

64/70

Foundry Fabrication

Downturn – outsourcing strategy from foundry China semiconductor market $16B (02), $31B(06) [Gartner Dataquest] Big 3 – TSMC, UMC, … > $8.4B, 90% total Prospect Foundry sales $25B (07) [Scottsdale IC insights]

TSMC $4.6B (02), 28% , 40% market share $2.57B (10th, 1H03) cf. Intel $12.21B (1st, 1H03) 0.18um + 0.18um > 85 % sales Altera, ATI, Motorola, nVidia, Broadcom, TI, Via

UMC Fab alliance with AMD Infineon $3.6B partnership

IBM Next serious player 6.1% market share, became Rank 4th 3rd, (02) AMD, nVidia, Xilinx, Qualcomm, Broadcom

SMIC Cost advantage 300 mm wafer at 0.11um, investment by Infineon Chartered partnership for < 90ns Broadcom, Elpida, Fujitsu, Infineon, Toshiba

65/70

66/70

중국선진국의 돈과 새로운 에너지가 모이는 곳상해 면적 6000km^2, 1700 만 90.4 포동개발 시작 , 연평균 20% 전체 경제 성장율 12%

황하와 천안문사태연안도시 상해 중점개발 , 효과를 몸통 ( 장강 ) 통해 사천성 ( 꼬리 ) 등 내륙까지 미치게 한다는 경제발전 전략개인적인 견해 미국의 주적으로 부상 10 년전 일본에 의한 경제헤게모니로 인한 미국 자존심의 상처는 ,

10 여년후 중국에게서 올 수도 엔지니어로 계속살아 남으려면 중국어를 해야할지도

67/70

저장성

북경지역

내륙지역

텐진

반도체 , IT

홍콩

상하이 ( 포동 )

68/70

69/70

EducationDemand Creation Story, Contents Digital Life – Emotion,Temptation Culture 에 대한 이해

Feature vs. Benefit TCP (Target Customer Profile) - 마켓의 소리듣기 TCO (Total Cost of Ownership)

Engineering Education 안목과 소양

문화와 역사 , 인류학 기술정책 , 산업전략 , 상품화 능력

기술적 능력 Technology Leadership Technical Marketing 기술의 경쟁적 Positioning

제품화 Mind 의 기술개발 Product Planning 고객을 공동의 개발자로 생각하라 [ 시장과 성당 (cathedral and bazaar)

]

70/70

맺음말 맺음말 - - 변화와 위험변화와 위험 인생에서 가장 큰 위험은 위험을 감수하지 않는 것이다 .

“So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself– nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.”

Saturday, March 4, 1933, Franklin D. Roosevelt

At the time, he was speaking of the crisis that was facing the nation—the “Great Depression.” Today, we reflect on his word, in light of the crisis that now confronts this nation.

JoonSeo@paion.com