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KINH T V M IICHNG IV: TNG CUNG V NG PHILLIPS
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
CHNG IV: TNG CUNG V NG PHILLIPS I. Cc m hnh ng tng cung1. Khi qut chung v tng cung a. Khi nim Tng cung (Aggregate Supply: AS) l tng khi lng HH - DV m cc tc nhn trong nc mong mun v c kh nng cung cp tng ng vi mi mc gi chung, mc CPSX v gii hn kh nng SX cn cc yu t KT khc cho trc (khng i).
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
1. Khi qut chung v tng cungb. ng tng cungng tng cung biu din mi quan h gia mc gi chung v lng HH - DV cung ng. Chng ta cn xem xt 2 trng hp: Trong di hn: khi gi c hon ton Trong ngn hn: khi gi c mt s HH - DV
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
1. Khi qut chung v tng cungb.1. ng tng cung di hnng AS di hn (ASLR)
Bi trong di hn khi gi c iu chnh mnh mi th trng trong c th trng cc nhn t SX u trng thi cn bng. Cn bng th trng cc nhn t SX c ngha l mi ngun lc u c s dng y .
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
1. Khi qut chung v tng cungKhi ngun lc SX c s dng ht cung v HH - DV (ASLR) s Ch ph thuc vo cung v cc nhn t SX nh
Khng ph thuc vo
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
ng tng cung di hn
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
1. Khi qut chung v tng cungb.2. ng tng cung ngn hnng AS ngn hn (ASSR) l ng m t mi quan h gia tng SL v mc gi chung khi Mc d c nhiu m hnh tng cung khc nhau nhng u c kt lun chung l
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
1. Khi qut chung v tng cungPhng trnh c bn ca ng ASSR c dng:Trong :
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
1. Khi qut chung v tng cung dc ca ng ASSR ph thuc vo
Nu = 0 Nu rt ln
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
2. Cc m hnh ng tng cung ngn hnC 4 m hnh khc nhau gii thch v ng tng cung ngn hn: M hnh M hnh M hnh M hnh
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. M hnh tin lng cng nhc (The Sticky Wage Model) Theo m hnh ny, ng ASSR dc ln v tin lng danh ngha S cng nhc ny mt phn do hp ng L di hn gia DN v CN. * Gi nh:Khi mc c tin lng, c DN v CN u c mc tiu nht nh v tin lng thc t m h s tha thun.
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. M hnh tin lng cng nhcTrong hp ng c k kt, cc iu khon c lp theo xc nh tin lng danh ngha, cc DN v CN da trn k vng v mc gi chung (Pe):
Trong : w l mc tiu v
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. M hnh tin lng cng nhcCu v L quyt nh s L c thu Theo l thuyt tn c in, DN s la chn bng cch cn bng sn phm cn bin ca L vi tin lng thc t:
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. M hnh tin lng cng nhcHm cu v lao ng c dng: Sn lng c quyt nh bi hm sn xut:
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. M hnh tin lng cng nhcNu P = Pe th: Khi :
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. M hnh tin lng cng nhcNu P > Pe th: L tr nn r hn. Do cc DN s thu nhiu L v sn lng s tng.
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. M hnh tin lng cng nhcNu P < Pe th:
L tr nn t hn. Do cc DN s ct gim L v sn lng s gim.
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. M hnh tin lng cng nhcM hnh ny hm rng chng ta c th biu din ng tng cung bng phng trnh:
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. M hnh tin lng cng nhc
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
b. M hnh nhn thc sai lm ca cng nhn (The Misperception Model)M hnh ny do Milton Friedman a ra nm 1968. Ging nh m hnh tin lng cng nhc, m hnh nhn thc sai lm ca CN mt ln naTuy nhin, n khc m hnh tin lng cng nhc nhng gi nh sau:
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
b. M hnh nhn thc sai lm ca CN* Gi nh:Tin lng
Cu L ph thuc tin lng thc t cung L ph thuc tin lng thc t l v DN v CN c gi thit l c thng tin khc nhau v mc gi:
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
b. M hnh nhn thc sai lm ca CNNu mc gi cao hn mc gi m CN d kinV CN thy tin lng thc t do sn lng s tng.
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
b. M hnh nhn thc sai lm ca CNNu mc gi thp hn mc gi m CN d kinV CN thy tin lng thc t
do sn lng s gim.
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
b. M hnh nhn thc sai lm ca CN
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
b. M hnh nhn thc sai lm ca CNKt lun rt ra t MH ny l ng tng cung cng dc ln.
Tuy nhin, ng tng cung trong m hnh ny
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
c. M hnh thng tin khng hon ho (The Imperfect Information Model) M hnh ny do R. Lucas a ra vo u nhng nm 1970 mt phn nhm chnh thc ha MH nhn thc sai lm ca CN do M. Friedman a ra nm 1968. V th, ng AS a ra da trn MH ny i khi gi l
Ging MH nhn thc sai lm ca CN, MH thng tin khng hon ho cng da trn gi thit
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
c. M hnh thng tin khng hon ho* Gi nh:Khng phn bit CN v DN. C CN v DN
DN bit c gi c hng ha m h SX nhng khng quan st c mc gi chung,
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
c. M hnh thng tin khng hon hoV d: Gi s c mt c sc lm tng gi. DN khng th phn bit mt cch hon ho rng l:C sc lm tng mc gi chung (khng lm thay i gi tng i) v do
C sc lm tng gi c cho cc sn phm ca DN (lm thay i gi tng i) v do
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
c. M hnh thng tin khng hon hoPhn ng tt nht ca DN DN quyt nh SX bao nhiu ph thuc vo mc gi m h d kin Pe. Tm li, MH thng tin khng hon ho cng khng nh rng
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
d. M hnh gi c cng nhc (The Sticky Price Model) MH gi c cng nhc a ra mt quan nim rt khc v hnh vi ca cc DN. Chng ta vn gi nh DN la chn mc SX m h c th bn c ti mc gi cho trc. Tuy nhin, trong thc t cc DN thng
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
d. M hnh gi c cng nhc Mc gi bn p m DN mun quy nh ph thuc vo 2 bin s: Mc gi chung P:
Thu nhp Y:
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
d. M hnh gi c cng nhc Ta c th vit gi m DN mun quy nh nh sau: Trong a > 0Phng trnh ny cho thy gi mong mun ca DN p ph thuc vo
Gi s trong nn KT c 2 loi DN:
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
d. M hnh gi c cng nhc DN c gi c cng nhc chim t trng s DN n nh gi c v duy tr n trong mt khong thi gian. H nh gi trn c s k vng v nhng iu kin KT trong tng lai. n gin chng ta gi nh cc DN ny Khi gi m DN quy nh l
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
d. M hnh gi c cng nhc DN c gi c linh hot chim t trng (1 - s)Mc gi chung trong nn KT l trung bnh gia quyn ca 2 loi gi:
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
d. M hnh gi c cng nhc Nu SL mc t nhinNu tng cu cao, do Cu cao khin cc DN c gi c linh hot tng gi. S thay i ca mc gi chung trc cc c sc v sn lng
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
d. M hnh gi c cng nhc T phng trnh: Ta c:
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
d. M hnh gi c cng nhc Ging nh cc MH khc, MH gi c cng nhc cng hm Hay: Trong :
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
d. M hnh gi c cng nhc Tuy nhin, c s khc bit rt ln ch m hnh ny cho rng ch khng phi nh 3 m hnh trc. Mc d vy, tt c 4 m hnh th c sn lng v mc gi u l cc bin ni sinh.
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
d. M hnh gi c cng nhc T phng trnh:
Khi nn KT c nhiu DN vi gi c cng nhc mc gi s gn mc d kin.
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
e. Kt lun chung4 m hnh v ng ASSR u cho rng SL s khc mc SL t nhin khi mc gi sai lch so vi d kin.
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
e. Kt lun chungTuy nhin, 4 MH cp n cc th trng khc nhau v c quan nim khc nhau v s hot ng ca cc th trng trong nn KT.MH tin lng cng nhc v nhn thc sai lm ca CN MH thng tin khng hon ho v gi c cng nhc
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
e. Kt lun chungMH tin lng cng nhc v gi c cng nhc cho rng cn bng cung cu trong ngn hn MH thng tin khng hon ho v nhn thc sai lm ca CN li nhn mnh n trong vic gii thch cc bin ng KT ngn hn.
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
II. ng Phillips 1. Gii thiu ng Phillips Nm 1958, gio s A. W. Phillips hc vin KT London cho ng 1 bi bo mang tiu Mi quan h gia tht nghip v t l thay i tin lng danh ngha Anh giai on 1861 1957 trn t tp ch KT hc ca Anh. Trong bi bo , Phillips ch ra mi tng quan
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
1. Gii thiu ng PhillipsHai nm sau khi Phillips cng b kt qu nghin cu, P. A Samuelson v R. Solow cho ng bi bo trong t im bo KT M di tiu Cc phn tch v chnh sch chng LP, trong h cng ch ra mi quan h tng t gia tht nghip v LP khi nghin cu s liu nn KT M. P. A Samuelson v R. Solow gi mi quan h
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
Mi quan h gia t l tht nghip v t l LP trong ngn hn
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
1. Gii thiu ng Phillipsng Phillips cung cp cho cc nh hoch nh chnh sch mt thc n v cc kt cc KT c th xy ra.
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
1. Gii thiu ng PhillipsTuy nhin, vic la chn yu t no nh i cn ph thuc vo dc ca ng Phillips. Chng hn, khi ng Phillips rt dc
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
1. Gii thiu ng Phillips
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
2. Xy dng ng Phillips t ng tng cung a. Xy dng ng Phillips Thc ra, ng Phillips ch l mt cch biu din khc ca ng ASSR. ng ASSR ch ra mi quan h t l thun gia mc gi v SL. V LP l t l thay i ca mc gi v tht nghip bin ng ngc chiu vi SL, cho nn ng ASSR cng cho thy mi quan h
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. Xy dng ng PhillipsTa c th xy dng phng trnh ng Phillips t ng tng cung ngn hn:
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. Xy dng ng PhillipsVi P-1 l gi c ca thi k trc , ta c:Trong e l
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. Xy dng ng PhillipsVn dng Quy lut Okun (nu %u = + 1% th %Y = - 2,5%) ch ra rng cc c sc lm tng SL s i km vi tht nghip thp hn ta c th biu din:Th ta s c:
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. Xy dng ng PhillipsCui cng ng Phillips hin i thng c iu chnh vi s tha nhn rng i khi c nhng c sc cung v:Nh vy, theo Phillips, t l LP trong mt thi k nht nh ph thuc vo 3 nhn t:
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. Xy dng ng PhillipsLm pht d kin, lch ca tht nghip thc t so vi mc t nhin (u un), gi l tht nghip chu k.
Cc c sc cung, v
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. Xy dng ng PhillipsT phng trnh ng Phillips:cho thy nu lm pht hay tht nghip thay i th s c s Do vy, vic iu tit tng cu thng qua cc CSTK v CSTT n gin ch lm nn kinh t
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. Xy dng ng Phillips
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. Xy dng ng PhillipsTuy nhin, t l LP d kin v cc c sc cung thng c coi l nm ngoi tm kim sot trc tip ca cc nh hoch nh CS. Khi cc yu t ny thay i s lmNu t l LP d kin tng, ng Phillips s
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. Xy dng ng Phillips
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
b. Hai nguyn nhn lm lm pht thay iLm pht do cu ko LP do cu ko (Demand Pull Inflation) xy ra khi tng cu tng ln mnh m, c bit l khi SL t hoc vt qu mc SL tim nng.
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
Lm pht do cu koCc c sc lm tng tng cu s khin cho SL tng, tht nghip gim, lm pht tng v ngc li.
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
b. Hai nguyn nhn lm lm pht thay iLP do chi ph y LP do chi ph y(Cost Push Inflation) xy ra khi CPSX tng t ngt.Cc c sc cung bt li
Ngc li, c sc cung thun li
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
Lm pht do chi ph y
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
b. Hai nguyn nhn lm lm pht thay iNh vy, khi LP xy ra do chi ph y th
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
3. Chi ph ca chnh sch gim lm pht Chi ph ca cc CS ct gim LP ph thuc mt phn quan trng vo c ch hnh thnh k vng.a. Trong iu kin k vng thch nghi Trong iu kin k vng thch nghi, d on v LP tng lai v do l v tr ng Phillips ph thuc voch khng lin quan n cc cam kt ct gim lm pht ca chnh ph.
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. Trong iu kin k vng thch nghiKhi ng Phillips c dng: Trng hp n gin nht l Tc l
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. Trong iu kin k vng thch nghiPhng trnh trn cho thy:LP trong qu kh nh hng n k vng v LP hin ti v k vng ny li nh hng n tin lng, gi c m mi ngi thit lp.LP c tnh , khi khng c cc c sc cung hay tht nghip chu k, LP s c nh mc hin ti.
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. Trong iu kin k vng thch nghi
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
a. Trong iu kin k vng thch nghiNh vy, trong iu kin k vng thch nghi cc nh hoch nh ch c th la chn cc tp hp gia lm pht v tht nghip nm trn mt ng Phillips xc nh.
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
b. Trong iu kin k vng hp l (Rational Expectation)Trong iu kin k vng hp l, mi ngi thit lp k vng da trn
bao gm nhng thng tin v nhng CS hin ti v tng lai. Ngoi ra, gi thit k vng hp l cn cho rng mi ngi s dng thng tin sn c
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
b. Trong iu kin k vng hp lNu cc nh hoch nh CS cam kt mt cch ng tin cy rng h s ct gim LP th nhng ngi suy ngh hp l s hiu c cam kt v nhanh chng h thp k vng ca h v LP. Khi , tn tht do vic ct gim LP gy ra
Tuy nhin, iu ny ch thc hin c khi
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
b. Trong iu kin k vng hp l
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU
Nguyen Thi Hong - FTUNguyen Thi Hong - FTU