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Gii thieu

Nong nghiep, nong dan va nong thon (tam nong) co vai tro va v tr rat quan trong oi vi nen kinh te quoc dan nen a nhan c s quan tam t nhieu pha. Nh vay, khu vc nay a gat hai nhng thanh tu to ln do ap dung cac tien bo khoa hoc - ky thuat e lam tang so lng, chat lng nong san hang hoa va nang cao mc song cua nong ho cung nh thuc ay s tang trng cua nganh noi rieng va cua nen kinh te xa hoi noi chung (Le Xuan nh, 2008). Co c ket qua nh vay la nh s ong gop ang ke cua kinh te ho ma nhat la cac nong ho.

Trong thi gian qua, chnh sach phat trien kinh te ho gia nh cua Chnh phu a tao ieu kien e cac TCTD tng bc hoan thien phng thc cho vay nen so ho tiep can nguon tn dung chnh thc ngay mot tang. Tuy nhien, thc te cho thay viec m rong cho vay oi vi nong ho van con gap nhieu tr ngai v mon vay nho trong khi ngi vay lai song rai rac tren cac

a ban nong thon rong nen chi ph vay cao. Ngoai ra, cac nong ho thng xuyen chu anh hng bi thi tiet, dch benh... nhng lai thieu c che bao hiem cay trong, vat nuoi nen hoat ong cho vay khu vc nong thon luon tiem an rui ro cao - cac TCTD co xu hng han che cho vay. He qua cua thc te nay la cac nong ho ac biet la cac ho ngheo luon phai oi mat vi khong t kho khan khi vay von mac du von se giup tao bc ot pha cho qua trnh chuyen dch c cau san xuat nong nghiep cung nh phat trien nong thon. Han che nay lam cho san xuat nong nghiep noi chung van con tnh trang manh mun, nho le v thieu von au t. Ben canh o, nhieu nong ho co thu nhap thap, tch luy khong u trang trai chi ph cuoc song va ap ng nhu cau von cho san xuat nen phai vay phi chnh thc, ban lua non, ban tai san (at ai) hay i lam thue vi thu nhap bap benh (Mikkel Barslund va Finn Tarp, 2008).

Chnh v nhng ly do tren nen mot so nghien cu (Pham Bao

Dng va Yoichi Izumida, 2002; Mikkel Barslund va Finn Tarp, 2008 ) a tien hanh tm hieu cac yeu to lam han che viec tiep can tn dung cua cac nong ho. Tuy nhien, cac nghien cu nay ch e cap en cac yeu to nh tai san the chap, thu nhap, so nhan khau, so ngi trong o tuoi lao ong, ty le ngi song phu thuoc, hoc van cua chu ho ma cha xem xet cac yeu to co tnh quyet nh oi vi viec tiep can tn dung chnh thc cua cac nong ho nh a v xa hoi cua chu ho hay thanh vien trong ho, khoang cach t ni cua ho en th tran, th xa, thi gian c tru tai a phng hay so lan vay. Trong pham vi bai viet nay, chung toi se bo sung them cac yeu to quyet nh lng von vay cua cac nong ho va t o e xuat cac giai phap m rong c hoi tiep can tn dung chnh thc cho cac nong ho, ma cu the la tai tnh An Giang.

C s ly thuyet va mo hnh nghien cu

e nhan dang cac yeu to quyet nh lng von vay tn dung

Bai viet phan tch cac yeu to quyet nh lng von vay tn dung chnh thc cua nong ho bang cach s dung so lieu s cap thu thap t 480 nong ho An Giang. Ket qua phan tch cho thay cac yeu to nh gii tnh cua chu ho, trnh o hoc van, a v xa hoi cua chu ho hay thanh vien trong ho, thu nhap, gia tr tai san the chap, muc ch s dung von va so lan vay co y ngha quyet nh oi vi lng von vay tn dung chnh thc cua cac nong ho. Ngoai ra, cac ho chon vay tn dung phi chnh thc thng t vay chnh thc v khong u kha nang ap ng yeu cau cua cac to chc tn dung (TCTD) chnh thc nh the chap hay co muc ch s dung von ro rang. Tren c s ket qua phan tch, bai viet e xuat cac giai phap e giup cac nong ho vay von c de dang hn.

PHAN TCH CAC YEU TO QUYET NHLNG VON VAY TN DUNG CHNH THC

CUA HO NONG DAN AN GIANGPGS.,TS. Le Khng Ninh

H Can ThThS. Pham Van Dng

UBND huyen Ch Mi, An Giang

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chnh thc cua cac nong ho, bai viet s dung mo hnh hoi quy bao gom cac bien so e cap trong cac nghien cu trc ay. Cu the la xem xet anh hng cua cac yeu to nh dien tch at, tuoi va trnh o hoc van cua chu ho, so nhan khau, gia tr an gia suc en lng von vay cua cac nong ho nc ta (Pham Bao Dng va Yoichi Izumida, 2002). Qua o nhan thay tac ong cua cac yeu to nh gia tr tai san sinh li, moi quan he gia ngi vay va ngi cho vay, thu nhap va chi tieu cua ho gia nh en lng von vay tn dung chnh thc cua khoang 3.000 nong ho 10 tnh cua Trung Quoc (Li Rui va Zhu Xi, 2010). Ket hp cac bien so tren vi cac quan sat t thc te nc ta noi chung va tnh An Giang noi rieng, bai viet hnh thanh mo hnh nghien cu co dang:

C s ly thuyet cua mo hnh (1) nh sau:

LUONGVAY la bien phu thuoc o lng lng von ma cac nong ho vay t cac TCTD chnh thc (trieu ong/nam).

TUOI la tuoi cua chu ho, do chu ho ln tuoi thng co nhieu kinh nghiem trong viec vay von va co moi quan he xa hoi rong nen co the vay c nhieu hn so vi nhng ngi tre tuoi. Do o, he so 1 c ky vong co gia tr dng. Tuy nhien, cung co lap luan cho rang cung vi tuoi tac va kinh nghiem, cac ho gia nh thng tch luy c nhieu tai san cung nh von nen co the t co nhu cau vay. Khi o, he so 1 co gia tr am. Nh vay, theo cac nha nghien cu, xu hng

anh hng cua tuoi chu ho en lng von vay ch co the kiem nghiem bang so lieu thc te.

GIOITINH la gii tnh cua chu ho - la bien gia co gia tr la 1 neu chu ho la nam va la 0 neu chu ho la n. nong thon noi chung va nong thon An Giang noi rieng, phu n thng co trnh o hoc van thap, phan ln ch lam noi tr va ong vai tro th yeu trong hoat ong san xuat cung nh trong qua trnh ra quyet nh cua ho. Ho t am hieu thu tuc vay von, khong co quan he xa hoi rong nen chu ho la nam se co c hoi tiep can tn dung chnh thc tot hn va vay c lng von ln hn, ky vong cua nghien cu nay la 2 >0.

DANTOC la bien gia co gia tr la 1 neu chu ho la ngi Kinh va la 0 neu chu ho la ngi dan toc (Khmer, Cham ). He so 3

cua bien nay cung c ky vong co gia tr dng v thc te nong thon An Giang cho thay thu nhap, ieu kien phat trien san xuat va kha nang tra n cua cac ho ngi Kinh cao hn cac ho ngi dan toc (mac du cac ho ngi dan toc luon nhan c s u ai cua Chnh phu) nen cac ho ngi Kinh de vay c lng von nhieu hn.

HOCVAN co gia tr la 0 neu chu ho co trnh o hoc van t cap 3 tr xuong va co gia tr la 1 neu chu ho co hoc van tren cap 3 (bao gom ca trung hoc chuyen nghiep). Ro rang, nhng ho vi chu ho co trnh o hoc van cao se nhay ben hn trong viec tiep thu cac tien bo khoa hoc - ky thuat,

tiep can thong tin th trng cung nh thong tin tn dung nen vay c nhieu hn so vi cac chu ho co trnh o hoc van thap; he so 4 cua bien HOCVAN c ky vong co gia tr dng.

DIAVIXH la a v xa hoi cua chu ho - bien gia co gia tr la 1 neu chu ho hay thanh vien trong ho co gi chc vu trong c quan nha nc hay cac to chc oan the a phng hay trung ng va neu ngc lai se co gia tr la 0. Khi chu ho hay thanh vien trong ho co a v xa hoi se hieu ro thu tuc vay va de c bao lanh tn dung nen se vay c nhieu neu co nhu cau, he so 5 c ky vong co gia tr dng.

KCACH la khoang cach t ni cua ho en trung tam huyen hay th t (tnh bang km) - ni at tru s cua cac TCTD. Khoang cach t ni cua ho en trung tam huyen hay cac th t cang xa th cac TCTD cang gap nhieu kho khan trong viec tham nh nang lc tra n cung nh tai san the chap cua ho nen se han che cho vay. ong thi, ban than ho cung t co ong c vay hn bi ton kem do xa xoi va t co thong tin ve cac TCTD e biet thu tuc vay; he so 6 cua bien nay c ky vong co gia tr am.

TGCUTRU la thi gian c tru (tnh t nam bat au sinh song tai a phng) - he so 7 c ky vong co gia tr dng v nhng ho c tru lau nam a phng se co quan he gan gui, than thiet vi nhieu ngi, de chng minh nang lc tra n nen cac TCTD co ay u thong tin (hay t b anh hng cua thong tin bat oi xng) va se cho vay nhieu hn.

NHANKHAU la so nhan khau cua ho. Thc te nong thon cho thay cac ho ong con thng ngheo va can vay e tieu dung nhng rat kho vay v cac

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TCTD t cho vay tieu dung oi vi nong ho va neu co th cung khong nhieu. Ben canh o, ho ngheo thng co rui ro tn dung cao v kha nang tra n thap nen cac TCTD cang han che cho vay; he so 8 cua bien nay c ky vong mang gia tr am.

THUNHAP la thu nhap bnh quan au ngi cua ho (trieu ong/nam). Phan ln cac ho co thu nhap cao eu lam an hieu qua nen can lng von ln, ong thi kha nang tra n cung cao nen cac TCTD co xu hng cho vay nhieu hn. Do o, he so 9 cua bien nay c ky vong co gia tr dng.

DIENTICH la tong dien tch at cua ho (tnh bang m2) c ky vong se co he so 10>0 nhieu at ngha la co nhieu tai san the chap co gia tr nen se vay c nhieu hn v oi vi cac TCTD chnh thc lng von vay nhieu hay t phu thuoc vao gia tr tai san the chap.

MUCDICHVAY la bien gia co gia tr 1 neu vay vi muc ch san xuat va ngc lai (tieu dung hay tra n) se co gia tr 0. He so 11 cua bien nay c ky vong co gia tr dng v cac TCTD chnh thc thng u tien cho vay e san xuat.

SOLANVAY la so lan vay cua ho. Nhng ho a tng vay va tra n ung han th se de vay c nhieu lan va lng vay se tang do gay dng c uy tn oi vi cac TCTD (so lan vay cung la mot trong nhng yeu to quan trong e duy tr cho vay theo moi quan he ma cac nghien cu a ch ra), bien nay co he so 12 c ky vong co gia tr dng.

VAYPCT la bien gia co gia tr la 1 neu ho co vay phi chnh thc, la 0 neu khong vay phi chnh thc; he so 13 cua bien nay c ky vong co gia tr am. V thc te An Giang cho thay cac ho vay phi chnh thc thng t vay tn dung chnh thc v khong ap ng c yeu cau cua cac TCTD

ve the chap, thu nhap hay ke hoach s dung von.

Phng phap nghien cu

Phng phap thu thap so lieu

Bai viet s dung ca so lieu th cap va so lieu s cap. So lieu th cap thu thap t nhieu nguon, bao gom cac so lieu thong ke nh ky va ket qua cua cac nghien cu co lien quan. So lieu s cap c thu thap bang cach phong van 480 ho c chon theo phng phap chon mau ngau nhien n gian t cac nong ho trong tnh An Giang.

Phng phap phan tch

Tren c s so lieu s cap thu thap c, nghien cu tien hanh c lng mo hnh (1) bang cach s dung mo hnh Tobit (hay con goi la mo hnh kiem duyet) vi phan mem Stata. Tobit la mo hnh phu hp nhat c s dung e kiem nh s anh hng cua cac bien oc lap en bien phu thuoc trong trng hp gia tr cua bien phu thuoc b kiem duyet hay khong c phep nho hn mot gia tr nhat nh nao o (Damodar N. Gujarati, 2004). Trong trng hp bai viet nay, gia tr cua bien phu thuoc (lng von vay) ch co the ln hn hoac bang khong v ngi vay co the vay mot so tien nao o hay khong.

Ket qua nghien cu va thao luan

Khai quat ve mau khao sat

Theo ket qua khao sat, so nhan khau bnh quan la 3,83 ngi/ho va so lao ong bnh quan la 2,86 ngi/ho, cho thay lc lng lao ong cua cac nong ho An Giang kha doi dao; o tuoi bnh quan cua chu ho la kha ln (khoang 48 tuoi) va chu ho la nam chiem en 84,6% so ho

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c khao sat. Tnh bnh quan, thi gian song a phng cua cac ho la 35 nam, trong o co ho a song ti 76 nam. Ket qua khao sat cho thay 367 ho (chiem 76,5% so ho c khao sat) co s dung ien thoai cho sinh hoat hang ngay cung nh e nam bat cac thong tin can thiet khac.

Theo ket qua khao sat nam 2008, tong tai san bnh quan cua cac ho la 444,21 trieu ong va thu nhap bnh quan la 55,96 trieu ong/nam; nam 2009, tong tai san bnh quan cua cac ho la 484,1 trieu ong (tang 9%) va thu nhap la 60,9 trieu ong/nam (tang 8,8%). Tai san va thu nhap cua cac ho nam 2009 tang len mot phan do tac ong cua goi kch cau cua Chnh phu thong qua viec ho tr von cho nong ho e phat trien san xuat nham khac phuc hau qua cua cuoc khung hoang kinh te va qua. Ket qua khao sat cung cho thay s phan hoa giau ngheo nong thon An Giang kha ro net nh mot so ho co tai san rat ln (3.870 trieu ong) va thu nhap rat cao (504 trieu ong/nam) trong khi mot so ho lai khong co tai san va thu nhap rat thap (khoang 6 trieu ong/nam) v ch i lam thue theo mua vu.

Dien tch at bnh quan cua ho nam 2008 la 9.565,6 m2, at nong nghiep la 9.186,54 m2, at mat nc la 19,77 m2, at tho c va cac loai at khac la 259,29 m2. Dien tch at bnh quan cua ho nam 2009 la 9.475,44 m2 va at nong nghiep la 9.043,41 m2. Nam 2009 dien tch at noi chung

va at nong nghiep cua ho noi rieng giam so nam 2008 do b ban bt bi san xuat khong hieu qua, do Chnh phu khuyen khch chuyen dch c cau cay trong hay do tach ho khi con cai lap gia nh.

Trong san xuat va i song, cac nong ho An Giang phai oi mat vi khong t kho khan (Bang 1) nhat la gia san pham thap va khong on nh hay cac kho khan khac nh thanh vien trong gia nh b mat viec, om au, mat mua do dch benh, thien tai... anh hng khong nho en i song va c hoi tiep can tn dung chnh thc (giam sut nang lc tra n bi thu

nhap thap va khong on nh). Ngoai cac kho khan co the khac phuc c bi chnh ban than cac nong ho th viec gia san pham thap va bap benh oi hoi phai co mot chnh sach v mo het sc hieu qua cua Chnh phu tren ca phng dien san xuat lan tieu thu.

Tnh hnh tham gia tn dung cua cac nong ho An Giang

Giong nh nhieu ni, th trng tn dung An Giang co cau truc lng the, trong o tn dung chnh thc va phi chnh thc cung ton tai ben canh s hien dien (khong ang ke) cua tn dung ban chnh thc. Theo ket qua khao sat, hau het cac ho eu co vay t cac nguon chnh thc, phi chnh thc hoac ban chnh thc. Cu the, trong nam 2009 co 448 ho vay (chiem 93,3% so ho c khao sat) va so ho khong vay 32 ho (chiem 6,7% so ho c khao sat), chng to nhu cau von cua cac nong ho rat ln - mot th trng tiem nang e cac TCTD khai thac.

Bang 2 cho thay mac du co en 333 ho vay tn dung chnh thc (chiem 69,4% so ho c khao sat) nhng cung co 199 ho co vay tn dung phi chnh thc (41,5%), trong khi so ho vay ban chnh thc la 27 (5,6%). Nh vay, mac du tn dung chnh thc rat quan trong oi vi cac nong ho nhng tn dung phi chnh thc van gi mot vai tro nhat nh nong thon An Giang. Tn dung ban chnh thc khong pho bien v loai hnh nay ch hoat ong thong qua cac to chc xa hoi hay cac

Tieu thc So ho Ty trong (%)

Gia san pham thap va khong on nh 242 50,4

Thanh vien trong gia nh b mat viec lam 103 21,5

Thanh vien trong gia nh om au 72 15,0Mat mua hay dch benh 40 8,3Thien tai (lu lut, han han...) 18 3,8Khac 5 1,0Tong cong 480 100,0

Bang 1: Kho khan thng gap nhat cua cac nong ho An Giang

Nguon: Tnh toan t so lieu khao sat cua tac gia.

Bang 2: Nguon tn dung cua nong ho An Giang

Nguon: Tnh toan t so lieu khao sat cua tac gia.

Nguon tn dung So ho % so ho c khao sat

Chnh thc 333 69,4Phi chnh thc 199 41,5Ban chnh thc 27 5,6

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oan the nh hoi phu n, hoi nong dan hay oan thanh nien. Nhng nam gan ay Chnh phu a quan tam hn en khu vc nong thon, co nhieu TCTD chnh thc hoat ong tai ay, hnh thc xet duyet cho vay cung de hn nhng cac nong ho van tm en vi tn dung phi chnh thc v thu tuc vay n gian, nhanh chong va khong can the chap. ac biet, vao moi au vu, nhu cau tn dung nong thon rat cao nhng cac TCTD chnh thc thng khong ap ng u, do o cac nong ho phai vay phi chnh thc v khong the cham tre do tnh thi vu cua san xuat nong nghiep. Hay khi co nhu cau ot xuat (om au, ma chay, ci hoi, chi ph hoc hanh cua con cai) nhieu ho phai vay phi chnh thc v can vay nhanh mot so tien nho - ieu ma cac TCTD chnh

thc khong san sang ap ng v chi ph cho vay cung nh rui ro qua cao.

Theo ket qua khao sat, ty le cac nong ho vay tn dung chnh thc cao nhat nhng van co 36,7% ho khong muon vay do khong co thoi quen vay; 25,1% khong co nhu cau vay; 20,4% khong vay do s khong u kha nang tra n; 7,5% khong vay do khong thch thieu n oi vi

cac ho muon vay, viec vay tn dung chnh thc con gap nhieu kho khan nh yeu to tai san the chap va moi quan he vi can bo tn dung (nhng ngi co tham quyen nhat nh trong quyet nh cho vay) ong vai tro then chot oi vi viec tiep can tn dung chnh thc cua cac nong ho An Giang (Bang 3).

Bang 4 cho thay so tien cao nhat ma nong ho vay c van la t cac TCTD chnh thc (48,8 trieu ong/ho/nam) vi lai suat kha thap (12,3%/nam) va chi ph vay (bao gom chi ph i lai, an uong, tien chi cho can bo tn dung, tien mua ho s, le ph cong chng) bnh quan 0,43 trieu ong/nam. So tien vay t quy tn dung nhan dan la 30,5 trieu ong/ho/nam vi lai suat la 17,9%/nam va chi

ph vay la 0,24 trieu ong. ieu nay mot lan na cho thay tn dung chnh thc van la nguon tn dung quan trong oi vi cac nong ho An Giang. Con oi vi tn dung phi chnh thc, so tien vay khong chenh lech nhau nhieu gia cac nguon (dao ong t 15,8 en 28,1 trieu ong/ho) nhng lai suat rat cao. ac biet, lai suat vay t nhng ngi cho vay chuyen nghiep len en 67,5%/nam va lai suat cua hui la 61,2% do chi ph tham gia hui rat cao (bao gom ca hue hong cho chu hui). Lai suat ma

Bang 3: Nguyen nhan cua viec khong vay c tn dung chnh thc

Tieu thc So ho Ty trong (%)

Khong co tai san the chap 88 59,9Khong quen can bo tn dung 35 23,7Khong vay c ma khong ro ly do 9 6,1Khong biet thu tuc xin vay 7 4,8Khong biet vay au 4 2,7Khong c bao lanh 2 1,4Khong lap c ket hoach s dung von 1 0,7

Khac 1 0,7Tong cong 147 100,0

Nguon: Tnh toan t so lieu khao sat cua tac gia.

Nguon vay So von vay bnh quan cua moi ho (trieu ong)Lai suat bnh quan

(% nam)

Ngan hang thng mai 48,8 12,3

Quy tn dung nhan dan 30,5 17,9

Ngi cho vay chuyen nghiep 15,8 67,5

ai ly vat t nong nghiep 24,6 27,1

Thng lai 28,1 27,8

Hui 16,2 61,2

Ngi than, ban be... 22,1 52,5

Bang 4: Thong tin ve hoat ong vay cua ho

Nguon: Tnh toan t so lieu khao sat cua tac gia.

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cac nong ho phai chu do mua tra cham vat t nong nghiep t cac ai ly hay thng lai cung khong qua cao so vi vay t nhng ngi cho vay chuyen nghiep, lan lt la 27,1% va 27,8%/nam. Ke en la lai suat phai tra khi vay

ngi than hay ban be mac du thap hn vay nhng ngi cho vay chuyen nghiep nhng cung len en 52,5%, chng to moi quan he xa hoi va gia nh nong thon An Giang ngay cang co xu hng da tren li ch kinh te.

Cac nong ho co nhieu hnh thc e thu thap thong tin tn dung nhng vai tro cua cac nguon thong tin nay lai khac nhau oi vi tng nguon vay. oi vi tn dung chnh thc, nong ho nhan c thong tin tn dung t

chnh cac TCTD, t s gii thieu cua ngi than, chnh quyen a phng va t tm thong tin (Bang 5). Ket qua nay cho thay cac TCTD chnh thc An Giang a co bc tien nhat nh trong viec tiep can ngi vay ac

biet la cac nong ho. Trong khi o, oi vi hnh thc tn dung phi chnh thc, cac nong ho tiep can c ngi cho vay chu yeu nh s gii thieu cua ngi than, t tm thong tin; ke ca cac TCTD va chnh quyen a phng eu biet en s ton tai cua tn dung phi chnh thc.

Theo ket qua khao sat co 88,5% so ho cho rang tn dung chnh thc co lai suat thap nhng en 99% cho rang so von vay rat han che va 82,9% tha nhan phai co tai san the chap khi vay. Nh a phan tch, the chap tai san la rao can oi vi cac nong ho (ac biet la cac ho ngheo) trong viec tiep can tn dung chnh thc v nhieu ho khong co tai san the chap hay co tai san the chap kho c chap nhan bi cac TCTD. Ben canh o, ch co 41,9% so ho cho rang thu tuc vay cac TCTD chnh thc n gian va 40,8% cho rang t phai ch i. Ket qua nay cho thay mac du a cai tien nhng thu tuc van con rm ra va phc tap oi vi nhieu nong ho - nhng ngi co hoc van con han che. Thc te nay dan en chi ph vay cao v viec i lai nong thon An Giang kha kho khan va ton kem trong khi ngi vay phai i lai nhieu lan mi hoan thanh thu tuc vay, ch co 32,1% so ho c khao sat cho rang chi ph vay cac TCTD chnh thc la chap nhan c.

Ngc lai, oi vi tn dung phi chnh thc co en 99,6% so ho cho rang thu tuc vay n gian; 99,8% cho rang t phai ch i va 96,5% cho rang chi ph vay thap; 98,5% so ho cho rang c t do s dung tien vay cung nh khong phai the chap tai san va 87,9% cho rang khong b gii han so tien vay. o la cac u the cua tn dung phi chnh thc a giai thch v sao hnh thc tn dung nay van ton tai nhat

Bang 5: Nguon thong tin tn dung oi vi nong ho

Nguon thong tinTn dung chnh thc Tn dung phi chnh thc

So ho Ty trong (%) So ho Ty trong (%)

T chnh quyen a phng 97 20,2 12 2,5

T cac TCTD 152 31,7 63 13,1

T s gii thieu cau ngi than 145 30,2 261 54,4

T tm thong tin 86 17,9 142 29,6

Khac 0 0 2 0,4

Tong cong 480 100,0 480 100,0

Nguon: Tnh toan t so lieu khao sat cua tac gia.

NGHIEN CU - TRAO OI

So 60Thang 03/201114

la khu vc nong thon - ni tap trung nhieu ho ngheo. Tuy nhien co en 97,7% so ho cho rang lai suat vay tn dung phi chnh thc cao nhng phai chap nhan v nhieu khi gap cac tnh huong ot xuat can co tien e giai quyet ngay nhng khong the vay cac TCTD chnh thc.

Phan tch ket qua hoi quy

Ket qua hoi quy x ly bang mo hnh Tobit trong Bang 6 cho thay lng von vay tn dung chnh thc cua cac nong ho An Giang chu anh hng cua nhieu bien so, trong o mot so co y ngha thong ke mc 1% hay 5% ben canh mot so khong co y ngha (trc khi phan tch mo hnh hoi quy, chung toi a kiem nh cac gia thuyet cua mo hnh, ac biet la hien tng a cong tuyen gia cac bien oc lap; ket qua kiem nh cho thay cac bien nay khong co hien tng a cong tuyen).

Ket qua cho thay bien GIOITINH co anh hng thuan chieu en lng von vay cua ho v he so cua

bien nay la dng mc y ngha 5%. Nh vay, neu chu ho la nam th lng von vay se ln hn so vi chu ho la n. Tng t, he so cua bien HOCVAN cung co gia tr dng mc y ngha 1%, cho thay hoc van la yeu to quan trong quyet nh lng von vay cua ho - phat trien he thong giao duc se giup cai thien c hoi tiep can tn dung cua nong ho.

Mot phat hien cua nghien cu nay la a v xa hoi cua chu ho hay thanh vien trong ho co tnh quyet nh oi vi lng von vay cua ho v he so cua bien DIAVIXH co gia

tr dng mc y ngha rat cao 1%. V nong thon, nhng ngi co a v xa hoi thng c knh ne, ton trong, co tieng noi trong cong ong va c u ai hn, ong thi, ho cung la ngi uy tn cao xet tren quan iem cua cac TCTD. Bien THUNHAP co he so dng mc y ngha 1% v ho co thu nhap cao la lam an hieu qua va kha nang tra n se cao do o se vay c nhieu von hn.

oi vi nong ho, viec vay c nhieu hay t lien quan rat chat che vi gia tr tai san the chap (chu yeu la at ai) v ay la chnh sach chung cua cac TCTD chnh thc. Ket qua hoi quy cho thay he so cua bien DIENTICH co gia tr dng mc y ngha 5% - the chap la yeu to quan trong quyet nh lng von vay tn dung chnh thc. Ben canh o, bien MUCDICH co anh hng tch cc en lng von vay cua nong ho mc y ngha 1% v co he so dng. oi vi nong ho, khi vay tn dung chnh thc ngoai tai san the chap con phai co muc ch s dung von vay ro rang. Khi xet duyet cho vay, cac TCTD chnh thc se u tien cac ho s dung von vay cho muc ch san xuat (tren thc te viec nong ho s dung von vay ung muc ch hay khong con phu thuoc vao kha nang kiem soat cua cac TCTD). Lng von vay cua nong ho con lien quan en so lan vay trc o v neu vay nhieu lan va tra n ay u

Bang 6: Ket qua hoi quiBien phu thuoc: Lng von vay tn dung chnh thc (LUONGVAY)

Bien so He so dY/dX Gia tr P

Hang so C 1.198 --- 0,01**

TUOI 0,000 0,000 0,92

GIOITINH 0,553 0,492 0,01**

DANTOC 0,068 0,062 0,72

HOCVAN 1,723 1.670 0,00***

DIAVIXH 0,452 0,414 0,00***

KCACH 0,017 0,016 0,16

TGCUTRU 0,003 0,003 0,54

NHANKHAU 0,027 0,025 0,60

THUNHAP 0,027 0,024 0,00***

DIENTICH 0,020 0,019 0,01**

MUCDICHVAY 1,430 1,252 0,00***

SOLANVAY 1,272 1,166 0,00***

VAYPCT 0,907 0,819 0,00***

So quan sat (N) 480Pseudo R2 0,281Gia tr kiem nh mo hnh (Prob > chi2) 0,000

Ghi chu: (*): Mc y ngha 10%; (**): Mc y ngha 5%; (***): Mc y ngha 1%.Nguon: Tnh toan t so lieu khao sat cua tac gia.

NGHIEN CU - TRAO OI

15So 60Thang 03/2011

th lng von vay se tang do chng to c uy tn tn dung, bien SOLANVAY co y ngha mc 1% vi he so dng. Ket qua hoi quy con cho thay bien VAYPCT co he so am mc y ngha 1% ngha la cac ho chon vay tn dung phi chnh thc thng t vay tn dung chnh thc v khong ap ng c yeu cau cua cac TCTD chnh thc nh a phan tch tren.

Tuy nhien, ket qua hoi quy cho thay cac yeu to nh tuoi cua chu ho, dan toc, thi gian c tru a phng va khoang cach t ni c tru en trung tam huyen hay th t khong co tnh quyet nh oi vi lng von vay cua nong ho; cac TCTD chnh thc quan tam nhieu hn en tai san the chap, thu nhap, a v xa hoi, muc ch vay va uy tn tra n.

Ben canh cac ket qua at c nh tren, nghien cu nay van con mot so han che nh cha bao gom c tat ca cac yeu to co the co lien quan en lng von vay cua nong ho nh so lng (hay gia tr) gia suc cua ho, kinh nghiem san xuat, kha nang tiep can cac nguon ho tr ky thuat san xuat, so lao ong hay ty le ngi song phu thuoc trong ho nen he so xac nh R2 cua mo hnh ch mc chap nhan c.

Ket luan va giai phap

Bai viet phan tch cac yeu to quyet nh lng von vay tn dung chnh thc cua nong ho bang cach s dung so lieu s cap thu thap t 480 nong ho An Giang. Ket qua phan tch cho thay cac yeu to nh gii tnh cua chu ho, trnh o hoc van, a v xa hoi cua chu ho hay thanh vien trong ho va thu nhap co y ngha quyet nh oi vi lng von vay tn dung chnh thc cua cac nong ho. Ben canh o, lng von vay cua nong

ho con lien quan chat che vi gia tr tai san the chap cung nh muc ch s dung von vay. Bai viet cung cho thay lng von vay cua nong ho cung b quyet nh bi so lan vay v neu vay va tra n ay u th se c vay nhieu hn do chng to c uy tn tn dung. ong thi, cac ho chon vay tn dung phi chnh thc thng t vay chnh thc v khong u kha nang ap ng yeu cau cua cac TCTD chnh thc, nh the chap hay co muc ch s dung von ro rang. Tuy nhien, ket qua nghien cu cho thay cac yeu to nh tuoi, dan toc chu ho, thi gian song tai a phng va khoang t ni en trung tam huyen hay th t khong quyet nh lng von vay cua nong ho.

T ket qua phan tch, ta co the thay lng von vay tn dung chnh thc cua cac nong ho An Giang chu anh hng cua nhieu yeu to co lien quan en chnh sach cho vay cua cac TCTD (ac biet la the chap) va cac ac iem lien quan en ban than nong ho nh thu nhap, uy tn tra n ... do o giai phap lam tang lng von vay cho cac nong ho phai bao ham cac yeu to nay.

e khai thac tiem nang cua th trng tn dung nong thon, cac TCTD can ap dung cac sang kien mi e giam bt viec qua phu thuoc vao tai san the chap khi ra quyet nh cho vay nh cho vay theo nhom, ap dung hnh thc tra n eu an, m them cac iem giao dch va tuyen dung ngi a phng vao lam viec v ho rat am hieu a ban cung nh ngi vay e giam bt anh hng tieu cc cua thong tin bat oi xng en lng von cho vay.

Ket qua nghien cu con cho thay lng von vay phu thuoc vao so lan vay hay gian tiep phu thuoc vao uy tn tra n cua ngi vay (v ch co tra n tot th mi vay c lan sau), ma ngi vay ch

co the tra n tot khi co thu nhap on nh. Chnh v the, cac nong ho can chu ong tm cho mnh hng i phu hp e tranh hien tng san xuat o at khong theo quy luat cung cau cua th trng khien gia san pham giam nghiem trong vao vu thu hoach lam giam kha nang tra n. Ben canh o, cac ho nen tien hanh san xuat theo hng hp tac e nam bat va tan dung c hoi tham gia th trng mot t the vng vang hn. Hp tac trong san xuat se lam tang kha nang thng lng khi giao dch mua ban cung nh cung cap thong tin ve uy tn tn dung cho cac TCTD, qua o on nh gia san pham ban ra va ong thi co the vay c nhieu hn

Tai lieu tham khao

1. Pham Bao Dng va Yoichi Izumida (2002), Rural Development Finance in Vietnam: A Microeconometric Analysis of Household Surveys, World Development 30 (2), trang 319-333.2. Le Xuan nh (2008), Bc tranh kinh te nong ho hien nay va mot so van e at ra, Tap ch Cong san so 151. 3. c Thanh (2010), Tn dung nong thon: Ca a m nhng nong dan kho vao, http://vovnews.vn/Home/Tin-dung-nong-thon-Cua-da-mo-nhung-nong-dan-kho-vao/20107/149576.vov, truy cap ngay 1/11/2010.4. Abhijit V. Banerjee va Esther Duflo (2010), Giving Credit Where It Is Due, Journal of Economic Perspectives 24 (3), trang 61-80.5. Mikkel Barslund va Finn Tarp (2008), Formal and Informal Rural Credit in Four Provinces of Vietnam, World Development 44 (4), trang 485-503.6. Damodar N. Gujarati (2004), Basic Econometrics, Fourth Edition, McGraw-Hill.7. Li Rui va Zhu Xi, 2010, Econometric Analysis of Credit Constraints of Chinese Rural Households and Welfare Loss, Applied Economics 42 (13), trang 1615-1625.