2000/8/15 황령산에서 바라본 연제 / 동래 일대

대기질 및 배출 모델링Air Quality and Emission Modeling

2002.4

김 동 영

Outline

Air Quality Management Process Air Quality Management Cycle

Roles of Air Quality Model

Air Quality Modeling Evolution of Air Quality Modeling System

USEPA’s Third-Generation “One-Atmosphere” Modeling Tool:

Models-3/CMAQ System

Applications of Models-3/CMAQ System

Air Pollutant Emission Modeling Methodology of Emission Estimation

Emission Inventory Database and Emission Modeling

Applications

Air Quality Management Process

EstablishGoals

EvalualteResults

What ReductionsAre Necessary?

How toAchive

ImplementImplement

⇒ Science(Criteria) ⇒ Law(NAAQS)

⇒ Monitoring ⇒ Modeling

⇒ Monitoring ⇒ Inventories ⇒ Modeling ⇒ Risk and Econ. Analysis

⇒ National Rules & Programs ⇒ States Plan

⇒ States & Local Rules ⇒ Permits ⇒ Compliance & Enforcement

Air Quality Management Cycle

Air Quality Management Process under CAA/NAAQS(U.S)

Air Quality ModelingAssement

Air Quality ModelingAssement

Air QualityMonitoringAir QualityMonitoring

EmissionInventoryEmissionInventory

Control Strategy &Risk Assessment

Control Strategy &Risk Assessment

Rulemaking &ImplementationRulemaking &

Implementation

Cost/Benefit analysis& Optimizaiton

Cost/Benefit analysis& Optimizaiton

대기오염관리와 대기질모델링Schematic Diagram of Air Quality Management

Goal(Ozone, Acid rain, ...)

$Policy

Decision

Control StrategyEvaluation

MONITORING

Modeling PerformanceEvaluation

MODLEING

Emission - Meteorology - Chemistry - Deposition

MeteorologicalModel

Air QualityModel

EmissionModel

Decision supportinput data

Air qualityinput data

Emissionsinput data

Meteorologicalinput data

DecisionSupportSystem

Dong Young Kim

EmissionChanges

Socio-EconomicFactors

Components of a Modeling Systemfor Air Quality Management

Air Quality Modeling

Roles of Air Quality Models

• Research tool

Understanding of pollution formation process

• Regulatory tool Current AQ Assessment & future AQ projection Control strategy development

Required by Law in the U.S

Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990

U.S. EPA’s Regulatory Models

Physical model : small scale, lab. presentations of the phenomena (wind tunnel, water tank ...)

Mathmatical model : a set of anlytical/numerical algorthms that describe the physical and chemical aspects of the problem

Dong Young Kim

Eulerian modelLaglangian modelGaussian model

Deterministic models based on the fundamental mathematical descriptions of atmpospheric precesses, in which effects(i.e., air pollution) area generated by cause(i. e., emission)

Statistical models based upon semiemperical statistical relations among available data and measurements

Air Qaulity Management - The Tool :Mathematical Modeling

A. Henderson-Sellers, KMcGuffieA Climate Modeling Primer, John Wiley & Sons, 1987p. 2

Dong Young Kim

Dimensions of Atmospheric Dynamics

(Advection at 4m/s)

10-2 10-1 10-0 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 1010

10-3

10-2

10-1

1

00

101

1

02 1

03

104

1

05 1

06

107

1

08

109

Transport(m)

Lif

etim

e(se

c)

year

3 month

week

month

day

hour

minite

OH

HO2

Photostationary state

NO3

O3NO2

NOPAN

HONOH2O2

Methane

COAcetone

Benzene

Methanol

Isoprene

PropeneAcetaldehyde

SO2 troposphere

Robin L. Dennis, Daewon W. Byun, Joan H. Novak, Kenneth J. Galluppi, Carlie J. Coats, The next generation of integrated air quality modeling: EPA's Models-3, Atmos. Environ. 30(12): 1925-1938(196)

Dong Young Kim

Temporal and Spatial Scale of Chemical Lifetime and Transport

Scale of Known Meteorological Phenomena

Robin L. Dennis, Daewon W. Byun, Joan H. Novak, Kenneth J. Galluppi, Carlie J. Coats, The next generation of integrated air quality modeling: EPA's Models-3, Atmos. Environ. 30(12): 1925-1938(196)

100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108

100

1

01

102

1

03

104

1

05

1

06

107

1

08

m

s e c

VII. -plane approximationVI. neglecting the Coliolis forceV. quasi-geostrophic assumptionIV. hydrostatic assumptionIII. incompressible assumptionII. anelastic assumptionI. Navier-Stokes Eqa.

micro- micro- micro- meso- meso- meso- macro

LONG WAVES

Rossby waves

SYNOPTIC WEATHER

GRAVITY WAVES

SMALL SCALE TURBULENCE

SOUND WAVES

Power spectrum

of horizontal wind spe

ed

baroclinic waves

frontshurricanes

cloud clusters

inertial waveslow level jetsquall line

plumes

dust devils

thunderstorms

short gravity waves

deep convection

tornados

Dong Young Kim

A. Henderson-Sellers, KMcGuffieA Climate Modeling Primer, John Wiley & Sons, 1987p. 135

Dong Young Kim

AtmosphericDynamics

A. Henderson-Sellers, KMcGuffieA Climate Modeling Primer, John Wiley & Sons, 1987p. 135

Dong Young Kim

Governing Equation of Air Quality Dynamics

SRz

cEz

zy

cEy

yx

cEx

xcw

zcv

ycu

xt

C)()()()()()(

Advection Diffusion Rxns Source& Sink

C : Concentration(ML-3)t : Time(T)u, v, w : Wind vector(LT-1)Ex, Ey, Ez : Diffusion coefficient vector(L2T-1)R : Reaction rate(ML-3T-1)S : Source and sink(ML-3T-1) (emission and deposition)

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Air Quality Diffusion Equation : Conservation of mass

Dong Young Kim

MM5The Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model

http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/

•Prognostic vs Diagnostic•GCM and …

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CSU RAMSColorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System

http://rams.atmos.colostate.edu/

Evolution of Air Quality Models

1st-generation AQM (1970s - 1980s) Dispersion Models (e.g., Gaussian Plume Models-ISC)

Photochemical Box Models (e.g. OZIP/EKMA)

2nd-generation AQM (1980s - 1990s) Photochemical Grid Models (e.g., UAM, RADM)

3rd-generation AQM (1990s - 2000s) Community-Based ‘One-Atmosphere’ Modeling System

(e.g., U.S. EPA’s Models-3/CMAQ)

First-Generation Air Quality Models

Gaussian Dispersion ModelISC3, CALPUFF, AERMOD

(for primary pollutants)

Photochemical Box ModelOZIP/EKMA(for ozone)

Eulerian Grid ModelsUAM, RADM,

REMSAD, ROM

2nd-Generation Air Quality Models

Grid sheme and treatment of atmospheric processs of UAM

Dong Young Kim

U. S. EPA, User’s guide for the Urban Airshed Model(CB-IV),EPA-50/4-90-007A, 1990

3-D Modeling Scheme

A. Henderson-Sellers, KMcGuffieA Climate Modeling Primer, John Wiley & Sons, 1987p. 138

Dong Young Kim

3-D Modeling Scheme

Examples of 2nd-Generation Air Quality Models

UAM

Photochemical Grid Models

Modeling Atmospheric Chemistry CBM-IV, RADM2

CBM-IVCarbon Bond Mecanism, Version 4

Gas phase chemisrty for Ozone

Lumped approach

(23 species, 80 rxn eq.)

RADM2Regional Acid Deposition Model

Multi-phase chemistry

Explicit approach

Third-Generation Air Quality Models:U.S.EPA’s Models-3/CMAQ

“Open-Access” Community-Based Models :

User-friendly, Modular, Common modeling framework

for scientists and policy-makers.

Advanced Computer Technologies :

High performance hardware and software technologies

(Cross-platform, GUI, distributed computing, visualization

tools, etc.).

“One-Atmosphere” Modeling : Multi-pollutant (Ozone, PM, visibility, acid deposition, air toxics, etc.)

Multi-scale.

Air Toxics

PM

Acid Rain

Visibility

Ozone

Mobile Sources

Industrial Sources

Area Sources

(Cars, trucks, planes, boats, etc.)

(Power plants, refineries/ chemical plants, etc.)

(Residential, farming commercial, biogenic, etc.)

NOx, VOC,PM, Toxics

NOx, VOC, SOx, PM,Toxics

NOx, VOC,PM, Toxics

Chemistry

Meteorology

Atmospheric Deposition

Climate Change

One-Atmosphere Modeling: Models-3/CMAQ

Smog = Ozone + PM(fine)

Acid Rain(NO3- deposition)

Water Quality(Nitrogen deposition,

Lake Acidification)

NOx

Visibility(Fine PM)

(NOx + VOC + hv) -->

Ozone(NO3-, NH4+)

PM

NOx-Related Air Quality Issues

SOx-Related Air Quality Issues

Acid Rain(SO42- deposition)

SOx

(Fine PM)

Visibility

(SO42-, NH4+) PM

Water Quality(Lake acidification,

Toxics deposition)

..OH Role in Pollutants Formation : One-Atmosphere

AirToxics

Ozone

AcidRain

Visibility

PM2.5

Water Quality

..OH

NOx + VOC + OH + hv ---> O3

SOx [or NOx] + NH3 + OH ---> (NH4)2SO4 [or NH4NO3]

SO2 + OH ---> H2SO4

NO2 + OH ---> HNO3

VOC + OH --->Orgainic PM

OH <---> Air Toxics(POM, PAH, Hg(II), etc.)

Fine PM(Nitrate, Sulfate, Organic PM)

NOx + SOx + OH (Lake Acidification,

Eutrophication)

Models-3/CMAQ Technology Transfer & Applications

Models-3/CMAQ Release (annual since 1998) Version :

Cray Supercomputer and Unix Workstations

PCs (Linux OS): recommended

Technology Transfer & User Support

Help Desk & Model-3 User E-mail List Server

Training & User Workshop

CMAS Modeling Support Center

http://www.epa.gov/asmdnerl/models3/

MeteorologyProcessor

EmissionProcessor

Air QualityModel

or RAMS

PAVE

Models-3/CMAQ System Framework

or SMOKE

CMAQChemistry Transport Model

Aerosol

Plumein

Grid

Gas-phaseChemistry

Diffusion

Photolysis rates

J PROC

WRFRAMSMM5

MeteorologicalModel Ouput

MCIP

SMOKE

EmissionsProcessing

ECIP

MEPPS

Advection

CloudAqueousProcess

PDM

ICON/ BCONInit ial/ boundaryconditions

Processanalysis

Models-3Computational

Framework

Photolysis

(Courtesy of Daewon Byun, USEPA/ORD)

Science Process Components in Models-3/CMAQ

XADV

YADV

ZADV

ADJCON

HDIFF

VDIFF

CHEM

AERO

CLDPRC

COUPLE

VDIFF

PING

HDIFF

ZADV

YADV

XADV

ADJCON

Symmetric SCIPROC

DECOUPLE

tsync

tsync / 2

DECOUPLE

XADV*

YADV*

ZADV

ADJCON

HDIFF

DECOUPLE

VDIFF

CHEM

AERO

CLDPRC

COUPLE

PING

Asymmetric SCIPROC

* AlternatingXADV and YADV callsfor each asymmetricSCIPROC call

CGRID_MAP

INITSCEN

ADVSTEP

COUPLE

SCIPROC

SynchronizationTime Step

OutputTime Step

CMAQ-DRIVER

tout

tsync

tsync

tsync

(Courtesy of Daewon Byun, USEPA/ORD)

Science Modules Flow Charts in Models-3/CMAQ

U. S. EPA, Models-3 conceptsAdaptability

Models-3/CMAQ Demo Simulation : PM 2.5

Fine PM Species (PM2.5)

Sulfate, Nitrate, Ammonium,Secondary anthropogenic & biogenic organics,Primary elementary carbon,Unspeciated primary aerosols

Coarse PM Species (PM10)

Fugitive dustSea saltUnspeciated anthropogenic aerosols

Models-3/CMAQ Demo Simulation : Visibility

Visual Range Parameters:

Deciview (dv) : dV = 10 ln (b / 0.01), b [km-1] : extinction coeff.

Koschmieder Visual Range :

Vr = 3.91 / b [km]

dV Vr [km] km-1]

60 1.0 4.040 7.2 0.5520 53 0.0710 144 0.03 0 391 0.01

CMASCMAQ

Community MultiscaleAir Quality (CMAQ)Modeling System :

• First release 07/1998;• Recent release 06/2001;• Ready to use for O3, PM, visibility, acid rain; • Currently undergoing PM evaluation and air toxics development;

Community Modelingand Analysis System(CMAS) :

Year 2001 - 2004 plan :• Outreach to user community• Provide support to users through Training & Support Center• Hold Models-3 training and workshop

Multi-Media Integrated Modeling System (MIMS):

Year 2000 - 2008 plan :• Include Multi-media and cross-media pollutants;• Common framework for airshed and watershed modeling;

MIMS

Models-3 Future

Dong Young Kim

Schematic Diagram of Multi-Media Environmental Modeling

F : the vertical dry deposition flux(M/L2) vd : the deposition velocity(L/T) C : the concentration of air(M/L3)

F = -vdC1/vd = rt = ra + rb + rc

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Dry Deposition Modeling

Deposition plate : a 13 inch greased(L-Apiezon) Mylar strip, which is mounted on to a clean PVC plate. have a sharp leading edge(to induce laminar flow). are kept pointing into the wind(to avoid reentrainment). should be covered whenever it rains or snows(used the moisture sensors for automation).

Sampling time Short-term samples : 8~72 hrs Long-term samples : 1~4 weeks

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Dry Deposition Sampling

TSP, High volumn sampler PM10, High volumn sampler Dichotonous PM sampler

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Automated aerosol sampler

polar zone

Arerosol Samplers

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Deposition Velocity &Particle Size

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Computing Resource of NCSC

Air Pollutants Emission Modeling

배출목록의 활용

• 대기질 관리 정책의 수립 및 평가• 기존 배출원 관리 및 신규 배출원 평가• 대기질 모형체계의 운영• 오염 예보체계 운영• 환경영향평가• 측정망 설계 및 평가• 규제 이행여부 평가• 배출부과금 산정

U.S. EPA’s NEI & AIRS

http://www.epa.gov/airs/

NEI(national emission inventory)

• input from State and local air agencies

• National Emission Trends (NET) database, Criteria pollutant emissions data (1985 ~ )

• National Toxics Inventory (NTI) database, Hazardous air pollutants emissions data (1993 ~)

U.S. EPA’s AIRS

http://www.epa.gov/airs/

AIRSArerometric Information

Retrieval System

AIRSArerometric Information

Retrieval System

GCSGeo-common SubsystemGCS

Geo-common Subsystem

AQSAir QualitySubsystem

AQSAir QualitySubsystem

AFSFacility

Subsystem

AFSFacility

Subsystem

AMSArea/MobileSubsystem

AMSArea/MobileSubsystem

EmissionsData

EmissionsData

ComplianceData

ComplianceData

PermittingEnhancementsPermittingEnhancements

AGGraphicsAG

Graphics

Emission Factor and Inventory Group Factor and inventory contact News & general information Report

Emission Factor and Inventory Group Factor and inventory contact News & general information Report

AP-42 and Other Estimation references AP-42 L&E documents(air toxics) Source classification code

AP-42 and Other Estimation references AP-42 L&E documents(air toxics) Source classification code

Emission Estimation Software Area source analysis program DESPERATE(Air toxics model) FIRE Fugitive dust emissions Inventory projection software SPECIATE PC-BEIS TANKS others

Emission Estimation Software Area source analysis program DESPERATE(Air toxics model) FIRE Fugitive dust emissions Inventory projection software SPECIATE PC-BEIS TANKS others

Emission Inventory Guidance General inventory guidance Air toxics Criteria pollutants Greenhouse gas

Emission Inventory Guidance General inventory guidance Air toxics Criteria pollutants Greenhouse gas

Emission InventoryImprovement Program Point source Area source Mobile source Biogenic source Data management Coding Quality assurance State/Local interaction

Emission InventoryImprovement Program Point source Area source Mobile source Biogenic source Data management Coding Quality assurance State/Local interaction

National Inventory Data & Projection Ozone transport Emission trend procedure

National Inventory Data & Projection Ozone transport Emission trend procedure

http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/U.S. EPA’s CHIEF

http://www.eea.eu.inthttp://www.dmu.dk

CORINAIRCO-ordination of Information on AIR emissions

EU, EEA’s CORINAIR

국내 배출목록 관련 현황

• 환경부 , 국립환경연구원 , 배출량 연간 보고서• 환경부 , 국립환경연구원 , 1~5 종 배출업소 조사 자료

• 대형 5,000 업소 , 전체 30,000 업소• 대기보전학회 , 서해안권 배출목록 작성 연구 , 1997• 대기질 규제지역의 ‘대기질 실천계획’ 수립시

지방자치단체 단위로 작성된 배출목록 자료• 환경부 , Toxic Release Inventory, 80 여종

화학물질배출량 보고제 (OECD 이행 규정 )• 환경부 , 다이옥신류 배출량 산정기법 및 DB 개발

• ( 스톡홀름협악 , 개발중 )• 환경부 , 대기정책지원시스템 ( 개발중 , 미공개 )

• http://www.me.go.kr/gita/daegi/main.htm

환경부 대기정책지원시스템 1

환경부 대기정책지원시스템 2

Source Classification

Source Classification(CORINAIR, 대기정책지원시스템 )

  

about 500 categories

Source Classification(U.S.EPA)

about 9,400 categories

General Approach to Emission Estimation

Bottom-up approach : Point source, Industrial process

Top-down approach : Mobile, Area, …..

Emission Modeling : Storage tank, Landfill ….

배출원별 접근방법

점배출원 : 환경부 배출업소 조사표 , 전국 약 3 만여개 시설 전수조사 DB

Bottom-up approach

면배출원 : Top-down approach

이동배출원 : Top-down approach

자연배출원 : 식생 , 토양 등 - Emission Modeling

Ex) U.S. EPA’s BEIS2

기타배출원 Solvent use - Painting, Printing, Laundary

: Top-down approach

Storage Tank, Landfill site : Emission Modeling

Ex) U.S. EPA’s TANKS

활동도와 배출계수 (Activity level and Emission Factor)

활동도 (Resolution) 배출계수

면 및 점배출원 연료연소 -소비량점배출원 공정당 생산량이동배출원 , 자동차 -주행거리이동배출원 , 항공기 -기착횟수용제사용에 의한 VOCs 배출 -소비량자연배출원 식생 - 식생밀도…

단위연소량당 배출량 (g/ton)단위생산량당 배출량 (g/ton)단위 주행거리당 배출량 (g/km)단위 기착시 배출량 (g/ 회 )단위소비량당 배출량 (g/ton)단위면적당 배출량 (g/m2)…

배출원별 배출계수 개발 기존 연료연소 배출계수

환경부 차세대 환경기술개발U. S.EPA’s AP-42, Mobile5

각종 통계자료 등배출원별 활동도에 대한 자료

해상도 및 대상물질해상도 (Resolution) 대상물질

규제물질

SO2, NO2, PM, CO)

오존선구물질 (VOCs)

speciated VOCs

온실개스 , 오존층파괴물질

유해대기오염물질 (HAPs)

공간적 해상도 국가단위 행정구역단위 ( 광역시도 , 시군구 ) 격자단위 (1, 2, 4, 100 km...)

시간적 해상도 년간 월별 ( 계절별 ) 일별 ( 주중 , 주말 ) 시간별

Hourly, Gridded, Speciated …Emission Modeling Air Quality Modeling …

Emission Modeling forGridded, Hourly, Speciated Data

Spatial allocation activity level database : spatial information

Temporal allocation activity level database : temporal information

Chemical speciation Chemical speciation database : U. S. EPA’s SPECIATE(VOC, PM) database

Dong Young Kim

UncertaintyModel

EmissionProjection Model

Normalized Emission EstimationModel

Anthropogenic Point source Area source Mobile source OthersNatural source Biogenic

EmissionInventoryDatabase

Domain Definition Spatial Domain Temporal Domain Resolution

SpatialAllocation

TemporalAllocation

ChemicalSpeciation

GIS database Spatial Information

Spatial Modeling

SPECIATEDatabase

Activity LevelDatabase

ModelApplication

Report

Post-processing

Pre-processing

Pre-processing

배출 모델링 개요The schematic diagram of emission modeling system

Dong Young Kim

Scheme U.S. EPA’s Emission Modeling System(EMS) for UAM

SMOKE

InventoryImport

GriddingMatrix

TemperaturePreprocess

EmissionFactor

TemporalAllocation

SpeciationMatrix

LayerFractions

ControlMatrix

ElevatedSource ID

Land UseImport

BiogenicHourly

Adjustment

AllMerge

InventoryMerge

Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emssions Modeling Systemfor Models3 by U.S. EPA’s NEI & MCNC

BB

P P

M M

P

M

B

Point only

Mobile only

Biogenic only

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Spatial Allocation

TemporalAllocation

Monthly allocation

Daily allocation

Hourly allocation

수도권 배출량 계산예

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수도권 점배출원 배출량 분포

Dong Young Kim

배출원별 기여도 분석

Dong Young Kim

수도권 배출분포( 점배출원 제외 )

Dong Young Kim

경기도 배출분포( 점배출원 제외 )

Dong Young Kim

QA/QC

1) 정성적 방법 Delphi methods Rating and/or Ranking system

2) 정량적 방법 정량적 검증의 어려움 배출량과 측정 농도를 직접 비교하는 방법 NMHC/NOx, CO/NOx ratio 07:00-08:00, 08:00-10:00, 07:00-09:00(LST) 대기질 모형을 이용하는 방법 (Rolling back)

Dong Young Kim

배출목록시스템의 발전 방향 1

배출계수 문제 - 연료연소 부문 보완 - 자동차 모드별 운행에 의한 배출계수 산정 - 산업공정부분 활동도 자료의 주기적인 조사 및 DB 화 시공간적 해상도 향상 - Urban/Local/National/Regional domain definition 환경정보체계 (Environmental Information System) 의 필요성 - 지형 , 토지이용 DB

- 대기질 , 기상관측 자료 DB

정확도 향상을 위한 QA/QC 과정 확립 배출량 예측 (Projection)

유해대기오염물질 (HAPs), 온실개스 등으로 확장 Dong Young Kim

배출목록시스템의 발전 방향 2

업무분담 문제 주관기관과 운영기관의 분리 ( 환경부 - 지방자치단체 )

산재되고 산발적인 자료의 체계적인 취합 및 관리 문제 ex. 미국의 AIRS system

자료 활용 문제

Dong Young Kim

Thank you.You can download this presentation from http://kimdy.kri.re.kr/research/paper_data/

Dong Young Kim