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國票創業投資公司 國票創業投資公司 能源產業趨勢介紹 2006.9.12 國票創業投資公司 陳世芳 副理

2006.9.12 能源產業趨勢介紹

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  • 1. 2006.9.12

2. / 3C/ / ITER Project LiFePO4 /2006 2012~2040 PEMFCRoadmap Hybrid-Electric Flex-Fuel Vehicle/Car 3. OECDOECD 2015OECD 70% 2030 33% 4. 1985~2005 1/31/3 unlisted 2005 1985~ 2005 2005 Region (%) CA G R (%) (M tons ) USA 24.6%1.37% 944.6China8.5% 6.68%327.3Japan6.4% 0.85%244.2Russian FederationGermany 3.4% 3.2%-3.11%-0.19% 130.0 121.5India3.0% 5.04%115.7South Korea2.7% 7.23%105.5Canada 2.6%1.72% 100.1FranceMexico 2.4% 2.3% 0.50% 2.11%93.187.8Saudi Arabia 2.3%3.16%87.2Italy2.2%0.11%86.3Brazil 2.2%2.43%83.6United Kingdom 2.2%0.34%82.9Spain2.1%3.09%78.8Iran 2.0%2.98%78.4World100.0%2.12% 3836.8 EU 25# 18.3%1.02%700.4 OECD 59.2%1.82% 2270.7 Former Soviet Union 4.9% -5.22%186.3 Others 36.00% 5.13% 1379.9 SBP, 2006, SBP, 2006, 5. 200520 mb13 mb Hybrid Electric Vehicle or Hybrid Car 1995110kmFord Liata20001 15kmToyota Vios2006120km (Nissan TIDA) Prius1 Toyota Prius I/II Hybrid Car Source: US Department of Energy, 2005Source: US Department of Energy, 2005 6. 20052000 2005 1995~2005 7. ITER Project ITER 2015 International Thermonuclear Experimental ReactorITER ITER(Investing US$5B) China, EU, Japan, Russian, South Korea, US ITER will produce 500 MW for 300 sec Location Cadarache, France Authorize construction2004 Construction to first plasma~ 8 years Begin operation~2015 End operation~2035 8. / Hybrid Car A Scenario of 2030 Oil Reduction 40 / Flex-Fuel (Biodisel, Biogas) Car biodisel biogas 64% SIEA, 2004 9. Shell2060 German Advisory Council2100 300 E x a jo u le s 2002060 100 20402020 1999 0 O il C oal N u c le a r S o la rG asB io m a s sW in dG eo H y d roSource German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003Source: Royal Dutch Shell Group 10. Fuel Cell 11. 2004384ppm300ppm CO2 2005216CO2530/GWh5/GWh SNature No.399 12. MJ ConcentratorsThin Film CuInGaSe2CIGS Thin Film Nano Poly Si 13. Si-based Solar Cell78~80%6~7%15%26~30%Cell (Wafer) CIGS 20052005 168 486 654 153146 4577 122 228 594 822 74% 82% 80% 7%5%6% 20% 13% 15% 100%100%100% 25% 26% 26%20052005 1071 12432314 83128 211 200256 456 1354 16272981 79%76%78% 6% 8% 7% 15%16%15% 100% 100% 100% 32%28%30% 14. 20053~4 1995 JETRO8~10 15. 12 () S 16. 20052820062120202000215005000 S 17. / 200437NiCdNiMH 2004602/3/ / SAVICENNE, 2005SAVICENNE, 2005 18. LiFePO4 LiMnNiCo-NiMn / / SAVICENNE, 2005 SAVICENNE, 2005SAVICENNE, 2005 19. 3C/ 20054516SanyoSony (27%)NBDT (54%)9 3C HEV/ LiCoO2LiNixCoyO2LiNixMnyCozO2 LiMn2O4LiFePO4 2005 SITT, 2005 20. / /HitachiIC PCB48Cell SITT, 2005/09 SHitachi, 2006 21. LiFePO4 LiFePO4LiFePO4LiC6 LiPON 2003 A123Power Density 3000W/kg V.S. 1350W/KgLi-ion1000 V.S. 500Li-ionLiFePO4 SWake Forest University, 2006 SWake Forest University, 2006 22. 200620062005 PEMDMFC AFCSOFC 40 SZSW, 2006 23. SH2FC, KIST, 2006 24. SH2FC, KIST, 2006 25. SH2FC, KIST, 2006 26. SH2FC, KIST, 2006 27. PEMFC Vehicle SH2FC, KIST, 2006 28. 2012~2040 SH2FC, KIST, 2006 29. PEMFCRoadmap SH2FC, KIST, 2006 30. 2015 CIGS / LiFePO4 Hybrid-Electric Flex-Fuel Vehicle/Car Fuel// Fuel CellLiFePO4