2009

( )

--1. a. b.2. a. () b.//3. ()

1.

2.3.()4.() a. 30-100 b.

----

MSCI20012005 0.9() 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.96() 0.6 0.6 0.7

7208,2078% 50% 50% 50%10%20%20%+vs

2000 2001 20022003 2004 2005 20066.25%GDP

1%2%0%2007/9/182008200920092010

/ /

GDP=C+G+I+(X-M)1.2. / /

IIIIIIIV / /()()//

()CRB

/

()

/

( 3~6)

OECD4

ISM81Q FOMC 8/12 FOMC Fed 0.0%-0.25%2009/7 -17.7%-19.3%2009/8 47.4 54.147.9NFP -44.3 -24.7 2008/8

Sheet1

2009

GDPNAHBISMCPICPIPEC

Q1-5.5%0.4%37.761.21.0%52.146.630.94498-2.5%33.335.642.9%7.6%-59.80.0%1.7%1.6%

-0.4%25.056.3-0.1%54.758.333.747293.9%34.235.841.6%8.1%-65.10.2%1.8%1.8%

-0.3%26.057.3-1.1%51.651.035.61579-0.6%31.436.340.8%8.5%-66.3-0.4%1.8%1.8%

Q2-1.0%0.1%39.265.1-0.4%49.445.835.2468140.8%40.440.143.7%8.9%-53.9-0.7%1.9%1.9%

1.2%54.968.70.5%51.853.234.2477161.1%34.942.844.0%9.4%-34.5-1.3%1.8%1.8%

0.7%49.370.80.6%56.358.238.4489151.1%39.944.847.0%9.5%-46.7-1.4%1.7%1.5%

0.6%46.666.0-0.1%56.058.143.3524170.8%43.448.946.4%9.4%-24.7-2.1%1.5%

54.163.252.948.4%-21.6

Sheet2

2009

123456789101112

61.256.357.365.168.770.866.063.2

() -:-59.8-65.1-66.3-53.9-34.5-46.7-24.7-21.6

7.6%8.1%8.5%8.9%9.4%9.5%9.4%9.70%

CPI()1.7%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.7%1.5%

PEC()1.6%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.5%

-:52.154.751.649.451.856.356

-:46.658.35145.853.258.258.1

-:30.933.735.635.234.238.443.3

-:449472157468477489524

NAHB89914161517

()-2.5%3.9%-0.6%0.8%1.1%1.1%0.8%

ISM35.635.836.340.142.844.848.952.9

ISM()42.941.640.843.7444746.448.4

33.334.231.440.434.939.943.450

PMI34.534.833.936.840.74646.348.2

IFO8382.682.183.784.285.987.390.5

ZEW()-31-31-3.51331.144.839.556.1

PMI3232.132.435.439.640.545.249.2

Sheet1 (2)

2009

GDPISMCPIPEC

Q1-5.5%0.0%

0.2%

-0.4%

Q2-1.0%-0.7%

-1.3%

-1.4%

-2.1%

Sheet3

ISM

35.642.9

35.841.6

36.340.8

40.143.7

42.844

44.847

48.946.4

52.948.4

ISM

ISM()

50

2009(ISM)

34.583-31

34.882.6-31

33.982.1-3.5

36.883.713

40.784.231.1

4685.944.8

46.387.339.5

48.290.556.1

PMI

IFO

ZEW()

2009(PMIIFOZEW)

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 41.GDP/147102.(6~912~2)3.(Q2Q3)(Q1Q4)()

GDP 20% 3 ( 6.8% 13)70%

(:30)9,300 10,000 9,000 1,0600

S&P500(:500)1,000 1,100 950 1,150

NASDAQ()2,000 2,150 1,900 2,300

2000()570 640 530 700

PMI3550

GDPQ1 -4.8%Q2 -4.6%

CPI2%(5~7)0%-0.1% -0.6%

IFO 35

ZEW( 0) 4856.1

PMI19849.2

Sheet1

2009

GDPNAHBISMCPICPIPEC

Q1-5.5%0.4%37.761.21.0%52.146.630.94498-2.5%33.335.642.9%7.6%-59.80.0%1.7%1.6%

-0.4%25.056.3-0.1%54.758.333.747293.9%34.235.841.6%8.1%-65.10.2%1.8%1.8%

-0.3%26.057.3-1.1%51.651.035.61579-0.6%31.436.340.8%8.5%-66.3-0.4%1.8%1.8%

Q2-1.0%0.1%39.265.1-0.4%49.445.835.2468140.8%40.440.143.7%8.9%-53.9-0.7%1.9%1.9%

1.2%54.968.70.5%51.853.234.2477161.1%34.942.844.0%9.4%-34.5-1.3%1.8%1.8%

0.7%49.370.80.6%56.358.238.4489151.1%39.944.847.0%9.5%-46.7-1.4%1.7%1.5%

0.6%46.666.0-0.1%56.058.143.3524170.8%43.448.946.4%9.4%-24.7-2.1%1.5%

54.163.252.948.4%-21.6

Sheet2

2009

123456789101112

61.256.357.365.168.770.866.063.2

() -:-59.8-65.1-66.3-53.9-34.5-46.7-24.7-21.6

7.6%8.1%8.5%8.9%9.4%9.5%9.4%9.70%

CPI()1.7%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.7%1.5%

PEC()1.6%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.5%

-:52.154.751.649.451.856.356

-:46.658.35145.853.258.258.1

-:30.933.735.635.234.238.443.3

-:449472157468477489524

NAHB89914161517

()-2.5%3.9%-0.6%0.8%1.1%1.1%0.8%

ISM35.635.836.340.142.844.848.952.9

ISM()42.941.640.843.7444746.448.4

33.334.231.440.434.939.943.450

PMI34.534.833.936.840.74646.348.2

IFO8382.682.183.784.285.987.390.5

ZEW()-31-31-3.51331.144.839.556.1

PMI3232.132.435.439.640.545.249.2

Sheet1 (2)

2009

GDPISMCPIPEC

Q1-5.5%0.0%

0.2%

-0.4%

Q2-1.0%-0.7%

-1.3%

-1.4%

-2.1%

Sheet3

ISM

35.642.9

35.841.6

36.340.8

40.143.7

42.844

44.847

48.946.4

52.948.4

ISM

ISM()

50

2009(ISM)

34.583-31

34.882.6-31

33.982.1-3.5

36.883.713

40.784.231.1

4685.944.8

46.387.339.5

48.290.556.1

PMI

IFO

ZEW()

2009(PMIIFOZEW)

Stox5E10,000 11,000 8,000 13,000

DAX30 (NASDAQ) 10,000 11,000 8,000 13,000

BC

8

II5

10,000 11,000 8,000 13,000225

19,200 22,000 12,000 25,000

1,400 1,800 1,000 2,000KOSPI

6,700 7,384 6,100 7,603

800 1202 600 1,600

55,000 60,000 48,000 74,000

CRB250 270 186 278

() () CPI () USD [ ]() USD [ ]

950 1032 700 1300

68 73 50 80

()+()

..CRB.. 10019991157.6 657.613.6 11.99.14.23.6

=+

=+ =+

()()()()()

(GDP)

(CPI)

()

2010

Sheet1

2009

GDPNAHBISMCPICPIPEC

Q1-5.5%0.4%37.761.21.0%52.146.630.94498-2.5%33.335.642.9%7.6%-59.80.0%1.7%1.6%

-0.4%25.056.3-0.1%54.758.333.747293.9%34.235.841.6%8.1%-65.10.2%1.8%1.8%

-0.3%26.057.3-1.1%51.651.035.61579-0.6%31.436.340.8%8.5%-66.3-0.4%1.8%1.8%

Q2-1.0%0.1%39.265.1-0.4%49.445.835.2468140.8%40.440.143.7%8.9%-53.9-0.7%1.9%1.9%

1.2%54.968.70.5%51.853.234.2477161.1%34.942.844.0%9.4%-34.5-1.3%1.8%1.8%

0.7%49.370.80.6%56.358.238.4489151.1%39.944.847.0%9.5%-46.7-1.4%1.7%1.5%

0.6%46.666.0-0.1%56.058.143.3524170.8%43.448.946.4%9.4%-24.7-2.1%1.5%

54.163.252.948.4%-21.6

Sheet2

2009

123456789101112

61.256.357.365.168.770.866.063.2

() -:-59.8-65.1-66.3-53.9-34.5-46.7-24.7-21.6

7.6%8.1%8.5%8.9%9.4%9.5%9.4%9.70%

CPI()1.7%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.7%1.5%

PEC()1.6%1.8%1.8%1.9%1.8%1.5%

-:52.154.751.649.451.856.356

-:46.658.35145.853.258.258.1

-:30.933.735.635.234.238.443.3

-:449472157468477489524

NAHB89914161517

()-2.5%3.9%-0.6%0.8%1.1%1.1%0.8%

ISM35.635.836.340.142.844.848.952.9

ISM()42.941.640.843.7444746.448.4

33.334.231.440.434.939.943.450

PMI34.534.833.936.840.74646.348.2

IFO8382.682.183.784.285.987.390.5

ZEW()-31-31-3.51331.144.839.556.1

PMI3232.132.435.439.640.545.249.2

Sheet1 (2)

2009

GDPISMCPIPEC

Q1-5.5%0.0%

0.2%

-0.4%

Q2-1.0%-0.7%

-1.3%

-1.4%

-2.1%

Sheet3

ISM

35.642.9

35.841.6

36.340.8

40.143.7

42.844

44.847

48.946.4

52.948.4

ISM

ISM()

50

2009(ISM)

34.583-31

34.882.6-31

33.982.1-3.5

36.883.713

40.784.231.1

4685.944.8

46.387.339.5

48.290.556.1

PMI

IFO

ZEW()

2009(PMIIFOZEW)

ECFA-- MOU--926WINDOW7C(CULV Calpella)2000--LEDIC

( 2009 / 06 / 29 00:10)

(CPI) 2010-2011 2 CPI 3-6%

20078

( 2009/06/12 15:07)20092010

(1) (2) (3)

200920102009/6/13 121.25%2009/7/30 12802009/7/28 FED2009/8/7 1100%84%2009/8/12 FED20117%

(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) MACD

(1)(2)

!

!END

**