Exp.CurveExp.Curve2012.

Planed tasks

Prediction of behavior for each task!

We should determine the time

constant τ

τ RC

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

00 1t 2t 3t 4t 5t

99%98%

95%

86%

63%

37%

14%

5% 2% 1%

Number of time constants

Per

cent

of f

inal

val

ue

Rising exponential

Falling exponential

Exp.CurveExp.Curve

Math and portals• We assume exp. Curve scenario

Exp.CurveExp.Curve2012.

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

00 1t 2t 3t 4t 5t

99%98%

95%

86%

63%

37%

14%

5% 2% 1%

Number of time constants

Per

cent

of f

inal

val

ue

STOP WORK HERE

37% OF WORK LEFT (TO BE DONE)

Exp.CurveExp.Curve

When to stop work!• We stop work when curve starts to go

in saturation!

Exp.CurveExp.Curve

Large number of portal with different Locations ...

...end up with different results

Exp.CurveExp.Curve

Portals behave similar ...

... We select best portals !!!

Exp.CurveExp.Curve

There are differences • Depends if portal is already live?• If work will be continued after planed period • etc....

Exp.CurveExp.Curve

The Normal Probability Distribution

• Graph of the Normal Probability Density Function

xx

f f ((x x ))

Exp.CurveExp.CurveWhat we will have?

Exp.CurveExp.Curve

10% of portals will be extraordinary!!!

Exp.CurveExp.CurveNormal Curve

68%

95%

99.7%

Approximate percentage of area within given standard deviations (empirical rule).