- 1. 1 2013 7 1 GTAP Model2 3 () GTAP GTAP 1 GTAP Thomas W
Hertel, eds., Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications
(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997). 2 8.1 3 1. ECFA 2.
CEPA , 3.
2. 2 Gravity Model Tariff equivalent 4 1 1. WTO 4 Park
(2002)Francois (2007) 3. 3 CEPA CEPA CEPA 65 52 CEPA 13 CEPA 14
CEPA1 CEPA 4. 4 2. 55 37 18 9 1 8 5. 5 1 1 32.41% 23.86% 36.04%
32.56% 38.54% 7.71% 45.13% 40.19% 20.20% 4.04% 22.00% 19.58% 22.79%
19.29% 24.37% 22.24% 18.82% 11.03% 26.30% 22.55% 9.47% 3.20% 12.34%
9.51% 11.12% 7.02% 14.60% 14.11% 24.79% 24.21% 30.45% 29.74% 9.47%
4.39% 12.55% 9.57% 13.62% 3.92% 17.93% 13.26% 12.46% 9.14% 16.25%
13.22% GTAP 8.1 () 6. 6 1984-2012 1.5 0.02% () 7. 7 ()( ) 8. 8 GDP
9,700 1.34 0.025~0.034% 4.02 37.2% 9,200 9.08% 3.78 1.61% 6,100
6,300 0.30% 2 % * %* 9. 9 GDP 394,587 97~134 0.025~0.034 3,509,068
123 0.004 1,080 401.81~401.88 37.19~37.20 1,011 91.70~91.78
9.07~9.08 23,539 377~378 1.60~1.61 116,844 93 0.08 20,851 61~63
0.29~0.30 100,528 218 0.22 *() 3.9 4.28 0.10 0.11% 0.55% 3,500
6,400 0.33 0.34% 10. 10 1.35 1.43 0.17 6,200-6,400 5,200-5,600 3 %
1 * %* 6,355.77 34.7 ~35.14 0.55 ~0.55 18,741.95 62.19 ~63.62 0.33
~0.34 3,291.19 6.22 ~6.34 0.19 ~0.19 84,719.55 134.98 ~143.16 0.16
~0.17 35,707.14 52.18 ~56.09 0.15 ~0.16 11,228.22 12.99 ~14.06 0.12
~0.13 24,232.85 22.63 ~24.55 0.09 ~0.10 37,154.19 23.11 ~30.96 0.06
~0.08 34,609.75 15.32 ~20.34 0.04 ~0.06 36,809.95 12.26 ~15.88 0.03
~0.04 11,586.73 2.03 ~2.98 0.02 ~0.03 71,320.98 12.27 ~15.34 0.02
~0.02 / 375,758.27 390.87 ~428.49 0.10 ~0.11 1 *() 11. 11 11,380
11923 0.15~0.16% 5 2 4 % * ** %** 2,467,274 5,138 ~5,282 0.21 ~0.21
2,497,388 2,160 ~2,350 0.09 ~0.09 276,875 1,111 ~1,132 0.4 ~0.41
509,182 989 ~1,018 0.19 ~0.20 608,278 904 ~944 0.15 ~0.16 420,412
494 ~590 0.12 ~0.14 283,214 209 ~222 0.07 ~0.08 97,611 153 ~155
0.16 ~0.16 228,401 140 ~150 0.06 ~0.07 11,441 70 ~70 0.61 ~0.61
5,587 12 ~12 0.22 ~0.21 12. 12 7,405,663 11,380 ~11,923 0.15 ~0.16
* **() 2006 GTAP GTAP 2013 5 729.9 740.5 13. 13 1. GDP 9,700 1.34
0.025~0.034% 2. (1) 4.02 37.2% 9,200 9.08% (2) 3.78 1.61% 6,100
6,300 0.30% 3. (1) 3.9 4.28 0.10 0.11% (2) 14. 14 0.55% 3,500 6,400
0.33 0.34% (3) 1.35 1.43 0.17 6,200-6,400 5,200-5,600 4. (1) 11,380
11,923 0.15~0.16% (2) 5 2 15. 15 5. 16. 16 Gravity Model 1. 1 2
3ln( ) ln( ) ln( )ijk j k i i ik iM a a a GDP a PCI a dis (1) i k j
i GDP i GDP i k 2. (1) (predicted value) . (2) (2) ap (actual
value) (predicted value) ijkbjk i (benchmark) k j (2) (Elasticity
of Substitution) 17. 17 ECFA 1. uWFDIDWFDIDWFDIWFDIGDPFDIFDI
ttttititit 661114312110 ... itFDI i t 1itGDP i t-1 tWFDI 1-tWFDI t
t-1 61... 6 WFDI u 2. 2009-2012 1tWFDI tWFDI 18. 18 GTAP GTAP ISIC
v3 ISIC v3 GTAP GTAP 38 380 3801 3802 3803 3804 39 390 3901 3902 40
400 4001 4002 4003 41 410 4100 42 420 4200 9204 44- 45 455 4551
4552 4553 4554 46- 48 472 4721 4729 474 19. 19 GTAP 4741 4742 4743
4744 479 4791 95 951 9511 9512 9592 44- 45 441 4411 4412 4413 4414
4415 4416 4419 442 4421 4422 4423 4424 4425 4429 443 4431 4432 4433
4434 4435 4439 444 4441 20. 20 GTAP 4442 4443 4444 4445 4449 445
4451 4452 4453 446 4461 4462 4463 4464 447 4470 448 4480 451 4511
4512 4513 4514 4515 4516 4519 452 4521 4522 453 4531 4539 454 4541
4542 4543 4544 4545 21. 21 GTAP 4554 456 4560 457 4570 459 4591
4592 4599 462 4620 475 4751 4752 4753 4754 4759 461 4611 4612 4614
4615 4619 461 4613 4619 463 4631 4632 4633 4634 4635 4639 464 4641
4642 4643 4644 4645 22. 22 GTAP 4649 465 4651 4652 4653 466 4661
4662 4663 4664 467 4670 468 4680 471 4711 4719 472 4729 473 4731
4732 4739 479 4799 479 4791 629 6292 481 4811 4812 4819 95 959 9591
9599 9693 23. 23 GTAP 50 501 5011 5012 509 5090 51 511 5110 512
5120 519 5191 5199 53 531 5310 532 5320 533 5331 5332 5333 534 5340
539 5390 56 560 5600 57 571 5710 572 5720 573 5730 574 5741 5742
5743 575 5750 576 5761 24. 24 GTAP 5769 577 5770 579 5790 58 580
5801 5802 964 9640 54 541 5410 542 5420 55 551 5510 552 5520 59 591
5910 592 5920 60 600 6000 62 621 6211 6212 6213 622 6220 623 6230
624 6240 625 6250 629 6291 6293 6294 25. 25 GTAP 6295 6296 6299 62
629 6299 63 631 6311 6312 6313 6314 6319 632 6321 6329 645 6450
7401 64 641 6410 642 6420 643 6430 644 6440 649 6490 66 661 6611
6612 669 6691 6699 672 6721 6722 6723 6729 26. 26 GTAP 671 6711
6712 6713 6714 6719 673 6731 6732 6739 72 720 7201 7202 7209 73 731
7310 732 7321 8492 75 751 7510 752 7520 753 7530 69 691 6911 6912
6919 692 6920 70 700 7000 71 710 7101 7102 7109 74 740 27. 27 GTAP
7401 7402 7403 7409 76 760 7601 7602 7609 77 770 7701 7702 7703
7704 7705 7709 875 8750 92 920 9201 9202 9203 9204 9205 9206 9209
9691 73 732 7322 84 8491 85 851 8510 852 8520 853 8530 28. 28 GTAP
854 8540 86 861 8610 862 8620 863 8630 87 871 8710 872 8720 873
8730 874 8741 8742 8749 88 880 8800 89 890 8900 90 900 9001 9002
9003 9004 9009 96 961 9610 962 9620 963 9630 969 9692 9699 96 965
9650 98 981 9811 9812 982 9820 29. 29 GTAP 79 791 7910 792 7920 793
7930 794 7940 795 7950 796 7960 799 7990 77 770 81 811 8110 812
8120 819 8191 8192 8193 8199 82 820 8201 8202 8203 8204 8209 93 930
9301 9302 9303 () 9309 94 941 9410 942 9421 9422 9423 30. 30 GTAP
9424 949 9491 9499 99 990 9901 9902 9909
