2014년 국내 10대 트렌드_HRI_0103

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  • 1. 14-01( 572) 2014.01.03 2014 10 ICT 3.0

2. (12.27~1.2)Better than the Best! 1 2014 10 1 22 . , . : (2072-6230, swhan@hri.co.kr) : 9 (010-6728-9516, 2072-6219, sododuk1@ hri.co.kr) 3. Executive Summary 201410 , . , , . , . 201410-.(The Age of Moderate Growth)-(5-)(Biflation)-(Deleveraging)-(Purple Collar)-(3-)- ICT -(2)-3.0::,.,,,.:.,.,.:,(deleveraging).,201312014.1 4. .:(purple collar),.()()-,,.:,.,.:.,,,,.ICT:ICTICT.,ICT .:2014....3.0:1.02.03.03.0,,,.. 5. I. 201410 2014,,10-2014(TheModerate Growth) (Biflation),,Ageof,(Deleveraging),(PurpleCollar)5- ,, ICT3- ,3.0 2< 2014 10 > - (5-)- (3-) (2-) (The Age of Moderate Growth)(Biflation)(Deleveraging)(Purple Collar)- ICT-(Second Jump)3.01 6. 1. (the Age of Moderate Growth) (),-2%3%(),-:,,,GDP,57.5%,68.9%1)< >< >(%)102000~20072008~20132014~( 5%)8 ( 2%)(3% )6 4 2 0 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 : ,, IMF.: 20132014,IMF.1) 2014 2012 35.0%, 2013 42.9%, 2014 47.4% .2 7. - :,-:,,-:20132017,97.4,7.0%2)127.5 (),,-,, (02-2072-6211)2) , 2013~2017 (2013. 9).3 8. 2. ()-,20123/420133/4,20111/478%20133/472% (),,--(precautionary saving)4 9. - < >< > :.:: 1. 2.., 2,.: 1 .,., 2,2. 3.,=100*(/-..=). (-) ,, (02-2072-6212)5 10. 3. (Biflation) ()-,,,(biflation)(inflation)(deflation)3) (-)(),10%,40%< >< > : KB.3) , Phoenix 2003 .6 11. - (),,,(1~3)(4200813%2013)1030%,8%< >< > :(2:62.8m), KB,(262.8m)2,~ 96.9m ,.296.9m. ()-,-2013,(02-2072-6216)7 12. 4.(Deleveraging) (),(deleveraging)-,-,()1,-2012964(GDP75%-201286475.7%), 2013(GDP167.9%)90%,2014-20139906.32012136%1:,2004103%73.972.8< GDP > (%)< > () :(,). :: 2013(%)(,3)..8 13. - :(), 198813.0%2002~2012GDP5.9%(720.51,272.5)(138.6(124.722469.6)212.2%2002~201226397.3),< >< (+) > ()(%) :, .: 2013:.: 2013().3. (-):,,-:.,-,,(02-2072-6219)9 14. 5. (Purple Collar) ()-(purplecollar)(,,)(,),4),(), OECD-20039320136.6%,(39.2%),(22.5%),< > : :, OECD. ,,(13.4%)10.3%OECD< OECD > 20125)188: OECD(2012)..4) (white collar) (blue collar) , (purple collar) . 36 . 5) 2,529, 1,824 705 , 1,230 595 . 343 , 188 , 222 .10 15. - OECD,80.5%OECD,57.9%22.6%p(10.7%p),-(9.7%p),(11.1%p)-G713.4%p, OECD17.4%p,362007~20133623.532.736,19.323.22014,, (),-, (-),,,2, (02-2072-6215)11 16. 6. ) - , , 2000 () - : 2014 (20012.5%20123.1%0.2%< :,>International Trade Centre.,1.6%< > : UN com trade. :,,,.12 17. : 2014 2001 596 2012 1,301 2 , , 2001~2012 32.0%, 21.3%, 19.8% - : 2014 2001 149.7 2012 163.1 , 2001 62 2012 98 1990 2000 - : Interbrand 2000 43 2013 (8), (43), (83) 2014 () - - (02-2072-6247) -13 18. 7. ()-70%,60%, 1990,201257.4%5707,600-200214262012103.0%20128 (),,,-:,,,1082.7%< >< >( )() 20022007201210.011.813.341.8144.2228.842.146.212.550.052.852.834.0:50.04.543.542.1201260.132.920071.823.82002.:,,,,.14 19. - :,2002201212.51.86.93.82.3-:,,2009(12565(6)20111,822), 10 ()-- (02-2072-6232)15 20. 8. ICT ()ICTICT-ICT2ICT,ICT///,,,36%ICT201310,160 (),ICT- (ICT),< > ICT : Gartner. : 20131/4.< ICT (2013) > :.16 21. ,,(OS) - (ICT)ICT,(- ()) ICT,,,,(OTT6),,,,)ICT,--(02-2072-6237)6) OTT(Over-the-top) , .17 22. 9. (),,2014(- ()) 2%4~5%,106(59.9%)- (), (68.0%)-()7)18)9.0%,(87.1%),,-,,,,,,,,()< >< > (%) : , 2011. :(2013).7) . 2013. , . VIP Report. 537. . 8) , 2012. .18 23. 9)-(family value),,.(extended family)-,,'(share house)- ,2(Angry Young Men)10),(Angry Old Men)(),,(anxietymanagement)(02-2072-6260)9) (2013) , 3.1% (18.4%) 1/6 , . 10) 1950 (), . , , .19 24. 10. 3.0 ()1.02.03.0-3.0:()3.0,,-1.0:-2.0:1989199819972007,, 20082013,()(),< 3.0 >< > -1.0: 1989~1997() -(1991: 1998~2013(98~072.0)()) : 1 2,, 4(08~13,) :-3.0: 2014(:),.:: 2013. 110.20 25. - 3.0: 2014()1(,)4()(,)(GTI),(SOC)SOC, ()-:-3-4-6:5.24-: (02-2072-6226)21 26. 201220111/42/43/44/4(E)2013 1/42/43/41.82.83.71.22.80.11.61.12.54.11.4-0.6-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.6-0.4-0.20.30.1-0.61.94.8-0.9-3.61.02.04.33.81.99.37.88.17.67.47.97.67.77.57.8 1) 2013 IMF 2013 10 . 2) , , EU , . 20132 01210691212//1.701.852.462.623.032.990.00%p85.86(%)94.2498.5197.90105.04105.370.921.2815 1.3031 1.3493 1.37991.37680.0089$1.3222(p) 12,938(p)310,395 2.82(%)/32014()14,57914,91015,13016,57716,441-39p12,39813,67714,45616,29116,291117p2.862.910.03%p2.522.882.821,070.6 1,111.1 1,142.0 1,074.7 1,055.4 1,050.3(p) 1,997.1 2,004.91,863.31,997.0 2,011.3 1,967.2WTI90.89Dubai107.99 294.78CRB3697.1396.52-32.1p 2013201 2-5.020149102.421298.551295.49-4.08$107.07 100.38 103.58 107.88107.79-0.71$296.39 275.62 285,54 280.17277.41-5.50$1) CRB CRB(Commodity Research Bureau) , , , 21 .22 27. 201220112013 (E) 3.72.61.52.01.93.32.63.8(%)2.41.22.21.71.62.32.02.7(%)-4.7-1.9-2.4-2.25.22.53.72.5(% )3.62.3-6.1-1.9-8.25.8-1.56.72611633174812983976954903081091742832002414423995,5522,7502,7295,4792,7652,83219.00.5-3.1-1.30.63.85,2442,6412,5555,1962,5652,59123.32.3-4.0-0.9-2.92.3-0.310.54.02.71.72.21.41.21.32.43.43.52.93.23.43.23.33.11,1081,1421,1121,1271,1041,0861,0951,070 )()()(, %)()(, % ) ((/(E)(% ) ( 2014(E), %), %)(,)5,5976,1232.28.45,1555,724 : E(Expectation) .23