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2014 mit for ecomod parewangi, gandy, and hairul

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The Dynamic of APEC interdependency and the Global Welfare Distribution

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Page 2: 2014 mit for ecomod parewangi, gandy, and hairul

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Page 3: 2014 mit for ecomod parewangi, gandy, and hairul

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Page 13: 2014 mit for ecomod parewangi, gandy, and hairul

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3

Outside ASEAN-I (except ROW) increase USD 1,000

India Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Expon. (India)

Page 14: 2014 mit for ecomod parewangi, gandy, and hairul

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

20

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ASEAN increase USD 1,000

United States China, P.R.: Mainland

Japan Australia

Europe Middle East and Africa

Expon. (Japan) Expon. (Middle East and Africa)

Page 15: 2014 mit for ecomod parewangi, gandy, and hairul

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-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Chinas's Trade Growth

Ekspor Impor

Page 16: 2014 mit for ecomod parewangi, gandy, and hairul

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Page 17: 2014 mit for ecomod parewangi, gandy, and hairul

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Europe increase USD 1,000

United States China, P.R.: Mainland Japan

Australia Middle East and Africa India

Indonesia Malaysia Singapore

Thailand Expon. (United States) Expon. (China, P.R.: Mainland)

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Australia increase USD 1,000

United States China, P.R.: Mainland Japan

Europe Middle East and Africa India

Indonesia Malaysia Singapore

Thailand Linear (United States) Expon. (China, P.R.: Mainland)

Expon. (Japan)

Page 18: 2014 mit for ecomod parewangi, gandy, and hairul

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-20

0

20

40

60

80

20

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Middle East and Africa increase USD 1,000

United States China, P.R.: Mainland JapanAustralia Europe IndiaIndonesia Malaysia SingaporeThailand Expon. (China, P.R.: Mainland) Expon. (India)

Page 19: 2014 mit for ecomod parewangi, gandy, and hairul

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0.000

0.010

0.020

0.030

0.040

0.050

0.060

0.070

0.080

2003Q1

2003Q3

2004Q1

2004Q3

2005Q1

2005Q3

2006Q1

2006Q3

2007Q1

2007Q3

2008Q1

2008Q3

2009Q1

2009Q3

2010Q1

2010Q3

2011Q1

2011Q3

2012Q1

2012Q3

Total Foreign Induced Trade Multiplier, other Economies to ASEAN

United States China, P.R.: Mainland Japan

Australia Europe Middle East and Africa

Expon. (United States) Expon. (China, P.R.: Mainland) Expon. (Japan)

Expon. (Australia) Expon. (Middle East and Africa)

Page 20: 2014 mit for ecomod parewangi, gandy, and hairul

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Page 22: 2014 mit for ecomod parewangi, gandy, and hairul

22

Page 23: 2014 mit for ecomod parewangi, gandy, and hairul

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0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

2003Q1

2003Q3

2004Q1

2004Q3

2005Q1

2005Q3

2006Q1

2006Q3

2007Q1

2007Q3

2008Q1

2008Q3

2009Q1

2009Q3

2010Q1

2010Q3

2011Q1

2011Q3

2012Q1

2012Q3

Panel A - Total Foreign Induced Trade Multiplier, ASEAN-I to Big Three

India Indonesia Malaysia

Singapore Thailand Expon. (Malaysia)

Expon. (Singapore) Expon. (Thailand)

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

2003Q1

2003Q3

2004Q1

2004Q3

2005Q1

2005Q3

2006Q1

2006Q3

2007Q1

2007Q3

2008Q1

2008Q3

2009Q1

2009Q3

2010Q1

2010Q3

2011Q1

2011Q3

2012Q1

2012Q3

Panel B - Total Foreign Induced Trade Multiplier, ASEAN-I to Australia

India Indonesia MalaysiaSingapore Thailand Expon. (Singapore)

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

2003Q1

2003Q3

2004Q1

2004Q3

2005Q1

2005Q3

2006Q1

2006Q3

2007Q1

2007Q3

2008Q1

2008Q3

2009Q1

2009Q3

2010Q1

2010Q3

2011Q1

2011Q3

2012Q1

2012Q3

Panel C - Total Foreign Induced Trade Multiplier, ASEAN-I to Europe

India Indonesia MalaysiaSingapore Thailand Expon. (Singapore)

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

2003Q1

2003Q3

2004Q1

2004Q3

2005Q1

2005Q3

2006Q1

2006Q3

2007Q1

2007Q3

2008Q1

2008Q3

2009Q1

2009Q3

2010Q1

2010Q3

2011Q1

2011Q3

2012Q1

2012Q3

Panel D - Total Foreign Induced Trade Multiplier, ASEAN-I to Mid. East and Africa

India Indonesia MalaysiaSingapore Thailand Expon. (India)Expon. (Singapore) Expon. (Thailand)