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グローバル時代の投資戦略
２０１９年の世界経済・金融市場の展望
2019 年 春号
巻末の「本資料に関してご留意頂きたい事項」および「本資料中で使用している指数について」を必ずご覧ください。
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=100
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1
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IMF
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500
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20
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21
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1 10
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2008 6136.0
2008 1241.9
20146
110.7
2016 128.3
0
50
100
150
200
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
/1
2007-082008 9 10 OPEC 522008 9 152008 10 24 OPEC 1502008 12 17 OPEC 220
1990 81979 1
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2013-14
2018 1254.23
-15
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0
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20
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20
40
60
80
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120
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190
20
40
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120
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
22
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12 OPEC
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2018 12
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1,1701,1451,065
24
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52020
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800
900
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1100
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-600
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20
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1950 1980 2010 2040
(15-64 )
(65 )
(0-14 )
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14
16
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(%)
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/GDP( : )
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25
30
35
40
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(%)
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2017
0
5
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20
25
30
35
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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
(%)
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2017
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( )
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GDP ( )GDP ( )
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CEIC Bloomberg UFJ
2015 World Bank “China 2030” ( 2013 )5 2015 2020 2050 (World Population Prospects, the 2017 Revision )
2017
26
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016
(%)
)
( )
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-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1999 2004 2009 2014
(%)
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2017
+0.5%
+4.5%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
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( )
( )
201811
(63)
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(5)
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2011 2013 2015 2017
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2018 12
(BIS) CEIC UFJ
27
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
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( )
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(PPP)2018 6 12
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2018 122018 12
2018 12
(PMI)
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50
75
100
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
(%) ( )
( : )
( : )) 1-2 2
( : )
( )
02468
10121416182022
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
(%)
( )
GDP( )2018 10-12
+6.4%
( )
2018 12+5.7%
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
(%)
) 3
( )
+8.3%
+6.1%
2018 12
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
(%)
( )
)3
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
(%)
( )
) 3
28
-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.4
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
( )
) 3
( )
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
024681012141618202224
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
12( )
12( )
(RRR)( )
(%) (%)
( )
4.35%
1.5%
13.5%
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(%)
(SLF)
( )
) SHIBOR:SHIBOR 7
SHIBOR: 3
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
( )
( )
2018 4 (RRR)
2018 6
2018 7-9 2018 11 (BA)2019 1 11 1 4 1 25 2019 1 11
2019 1 11 2019 1 11 2018 12
(TSF)
(PBoC) (SAFE) CEIC Bloomberg UFJ
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.50.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
( : )
( )
( : )
( / )
( )
↕
29
GDP
2018 7-92018 10-12 2019 10-12 UFJ
UFJ
GDP 2018 7-9 +3.4% +4.2% 23%
2019 3%
7-9 GDP 3.4%
50ISM NBER National Bureau of Economic Research UFJ
ISM ISM
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
57.6
2018 12%
54.1
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1998 2003 2008 2013 2018
%
51.1
62.7
2018 12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%
2018 7-9GDP
+3.4%GDP
2008 9 20142011 8
2017 1
30
GDP 72018
2018 112018 12 29
UFJ
MMFMBS
FRB UFJ
:2018 7-9
FRB UFJ
-0.6
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2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028
% CBO
CBO UFJ
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%
7.7%
4.4%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
%
GDP
51%
38%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
16.5
15.7
31
PCE +1.9% FRB
PCE
2018 11UFJ
UFJ
NFIB 2018 12
NFIB UFJ
UFJ
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
%
2018 1231.2
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
+1.3%+0.9%
20187-9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
% %
2018 12+3.2%
9NFIB
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 2017
1.9%
1.8%
%
FRB
32
12 FOMC 2.25-2.50% 2018 42 2019 FOMC
2 3
FRBFRB
2019 2
FOMC
FOMC 2019
UFJ SL NY BT KC CG SFDD/MM/YYYY FRB
FRB UFJ
FOMC FOMC 2018 12FOMC
FRB UFJ
FOMC
9 FRB UFJ
% 2018 2019 2020 2021GDP
2018/12 3.0 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.99 3.1 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.8
2017/12 2.5 2.1 2.0 - 1.8
2018/12 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.49 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.5
2017/12 3.9 3.9 4.0 - 4.6PCE
2018/12 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.19 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0
2017/12 1.9 2.0 2.0 - 2.0PCE
2018/12 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 -9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 -
2017/12 1.9 2.0 2.0 - -FF
2018/12 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.89 2.4 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.0
2017/12 2.1 2.7 3.1 - 2.8
KC NY
BT
CG
17/9/18
SL
26/11/18
1.50
1.75
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2.75
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3.75%
2018 20202019 2021
2.375%4
2.875%23
3.125%11
3.125%0
2.75%2.875%
33
2018 7-9 GDP +0.62%2018
9 EU
GDP
2018 7-92018 10-12 2019 10-12 UFJ
Eurostat UFJ
-90
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
120
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019( )
(2015 =100) ( )
3
3
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
( )
( )
2018 12
Eurostat EC UFJ
2018 112018 12
Eurostat EC UFJ
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%
20187-9
GDP+0.6%
GDP
2016 6EU2010-122008 9
34
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
(%) (% )
1
( )-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019( )
(%)
2018 2018 7-9 EC
Eurostat EC UFJ
2018 7-92018 11
Eurostat UFJ
-50
-40
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-20
-10
0
10
-5
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-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
(%)
( )
( )
12
2018 11 2018 12Eurostat EC UFJ
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
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0.4
0.6(%)
2019
2018
GDP
OECDOECD UFJ
2017 4.5%2018 (4 ) 7.0%2018 (11 ) 4.7%2019 (11 ) 5.3%
35
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
(%)
( )
ECB(+2%+2% )
( )2018
12+1.6%
ECB
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
(%)
( )
1
1
2018 7-9
:
2018 12EU
Eurostat UFJ ECB UFJ
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
M1
M3
(%)
( )0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
(%)
( )
( / )
WTI
2018 112018 12
Eurostat Thomson Reuters Datastream UFJ
2018 11
ECB UFJ
36
2019 1 15
2011/11-
2010/6-2018/5
2011/6-
2019/10
2019/12
2014/1-
2012/12-
2019/5
2012/1-
2018/6-
2012/1-2014/1
1998/6-2004/5
2003/11-2011/10
2002/6-2010/5
2006/6-2011/12
2003/6-2011/5
2005/6-2011/12
2004/6-2012/5
1998/6-2002/5
1998/6-2003/10
1998/6-2006/5
1998/6-2003/5
1998/6-2005/5
ECB
ECB
ECB
ECB 2018 12 2018
2019 6 3 ECB
ECB
ECB Bloomberg UFJ
ECB
2018 12
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.00
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
( )( / )
( )
( )
1 2017 42016 12
2 2018 122018 6
2019
( )
32019
?
(%)
↑↓
0.25%0%
0.4%
1 22017 4 2018
32019 ?
+
ECB
ECB Thomson Reuters Datastream UFJ2019 1 15
37
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 202065
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
CI
2015 100
73 2002 1 2008 22012 11 2018 12
57 1965 10 1970 7
2018 7-9 GDP 2.5% 4-610-12
2018 12 73 2019 1
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
%
GDP
DI
2018 11 1112 -2019 1
UFJ
2018 12
UFJ
GDP
2018 7-9 22018 10-12 2019 10-12 UFJ 2019 10
UFJ
-20-18-16-14-12-10
-8-6-4-202468
101214
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%
20187-9
GDP2.5%
GDP
2008 9 2014 42011 3
2009 9
2012 12
38
2018
+14.3%
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
%
2019 108% 10%
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
2005 100
2014 45 8%
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
EU
2012 1 =100
2018 11 3UFJ
90
2018 7-9 20182018 12
UFJ
2018 11UFJ
2019 1 16UFJ
2019 44 305 16 20 207 20138 TICAD10 1 8% 10%
11
2020 7 24 8 9
8
20203 2
60 180 2 1
2021 910
2025 52026 3
2025
2019
39
-2-1012345 %
-30-20-10
010203040
1977/111980/2
1983/31985/6
1986/121991/2
1993/111997/5
1999/22000/11
2002/22008/2
2009/42012/3
2012/12
%
-505
10152025
1977/111980/2
1983/31985/6
1986/121991/2
1993/111997/5
1999/22000/11
2002/22008/2
2009/42012/3
2012/12
%
0123456
GDP%
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4
-2-101234567
1977/111980/2
1983/31985/6
1986/121991/2
1993/111997/5
1999/22000/11
2002/22008/2
2009/42012/3
2012/12
%
8090
100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250
1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
1991 =100
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
1991 =100
2012 12 GDP 2000
2019
90
2017
OECD UFJ
2017OECD UFJ
GDP 2018 7-9 9 10
UFJ
/ /
40
19
38
127.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
501985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
%
DI
DI
%
GDP
7.97.5
5.5
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
%
20187-9
GDP
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
% %
+0.9
+0.3
2018 11+8.1
2018 11
UFJ
2017
UFJ
GDP
2018 7-9 7-9R&D
Eurostat UFJ
DIGDP
DI 2018 12 GDP 7-9 GDPGDP- GDP / GDP
UFJ
2009 1-3100
33.1 38626.1 23826.3 164
41
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
199060.1
99.4
62.5
2019
32.7
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2018
1,107
2018 9 1,859
20211.5%
0.30.8
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
%
1.8% 3.0%1.3% 1.8%
2020 2025
20163.0%
2027+0.3%
1.1%
2018
2025
2017 2018 2 2019
UFJ
GDP
(2018 7 9 )2017 2027
UFJ
UFJUFJ
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
201891.3%4.9%5.9%
41.2%
45.7%
34.2
42.2
23.6
2019
42
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
%
2%
+2%2018 7
%0.2%
2018 10UFJ
2018 12UFJ
+2%
2018 12 ETF J-REIT 1211 CP 2018 9 ETF
2019 1 16Bloomberg UFJ
2019 1 15
10Bloomberg UFJ
2017 12 2018 12
418.5 456.1 37.6 947.1 48% + 80
ETF 17.2 23.5 6.3 30.9 76% + 6
J-REIT 0.45 0.50 0.06 13.0 4% + 900
3.2 3.2 0.0 76.4 4%CP 2.2 2.0 0.2 14.6 14%
521.4 551.8 30.4
/
2%
2%
0.1
10
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
10
2
20
2016 9 212018 7 31
0.10%0.20%0
2
4
6
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
ETF
2018 126.3
2017 86.4
0
500
1000
1500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
J
2018 12554
2017 10 1013
020406080
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2018 1237.6
2015 10 83.6
43
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
ETF
1,900 +12.2%
109.43
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
EPS(
/
1989
PER
2018 1 1989 26 2 49 2 4 10
2018 7
PER
1980 1Bloomberg UFJ
EPS PER 2019 1 15EPS PER PER 2012
1Bloomberg UFJ
2019 1 1 2019 1 112012 1 1
-Bloomberg UFJ
2019 1 152018 12 EPS EPS 5 2018-19
Bloomberg EPS PERBloomberg UFJ
EPS
EPS PER
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
1989 12 2938,957.44
2019 1 1520,555.29
1998 10 912,787.90
1995 7 314,295.90
1992 8 1914,194.40
2008 10 286,994.90
100.038,957.44
0.06,994.90
23.614,538.06
50.022,976.17
2016 6 2414,864.01
1996 6 2622,750.70
61.826,747.75
13 14 15
EPS 1,746 22,703 24,450 26,196
2019 EPS 1,900 24,702 26,602 28,502
PER
10.59(2012/6/4)10.71
(2018/12/25)10111213141516171819202122232425
0100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,900
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
PER
EPS 1,7462019
1 15
11.77
17.4
15.1
12.8
PER EPS
44
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
%
GDP
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
1980
2019 1 15 TOPX Small TOPIX100Bloomberg UFJ
2017 2018 2018 12
JASDAQ
UFJ
GDP
2018 7-9 GDP
UFJ
2018 7-9 12
UFJ
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2011 12 100 %
TOPIX
TOPIX
10
45
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
%
2018 7-9
2018 7-9 GDP2020 3%
2019
2018 11GDP
TWI
UFJ
2018 11 12
UFJ
GDP
2018 7-92018 10-12 2019 10-12 UFJ
UFJ
%2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020
6 12 6 12 6 12
11 3.40 3.50 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.00
8 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.00 3.00
11 5.40 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.75 4.75
8 5.50 5.50 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.00
11 2.10 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.25
8 2.10 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.25
11 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.25
8 2.00 1.75 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.25
11
8 0.74 64 73 /
TWI
0.73 63 72 /
GDP
-10-8-6-4-202468
101214
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
%
20187-9
GDP+1.0%
GDP
2008 9 2011 1 2015 8
46
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
%
10
/
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
20181122.3
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
2019 1 15
Bloomberg UFJ
2018 11 2018 1 11
UFJ
2018 10 12
UFJ
UFJ
34
16
75
4
35
2.3
2.7
1.8
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
%
+2 3%
20187-9
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
%
10
/
47
2000
20002012
2000
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
(%)
: a
1980 1990 2000
: b:a- b
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
( )
207558.5
20757.3
2015
GDP
2017-22 IMF
IMF World Economic Outlook (2018 4 UFJ
2017-22 IMF
IMF World Economic Outlook (2018 4 UFJ
5 2015
World Population Prospects : The 2017 Revision
UFJ
2017-22 IMF
IMF World Economic Outlook (2018 4 UFJ
15
20
25
30
35
40
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
(%)
1980 1990 2000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
(%)(%)
1980 1990 2000
GDP
48
2013-15
2000 2013-15
20162013
2019 Fitch (c) (e) (h) 2019 5 (d) (PPP)(GNI) (i) (j) (l) (m) ( )
( ) (n) == (o) /
--Fitch Ratings UFJ
(a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) (k) (l) (m) (n) (o)
GDP
GDP
(GDP ) (GDP ) (GDP ) (GDP ) (GDP )
(10 (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) ( )4,948 127 -0.1 44,850 0.9 25.2 24.4 0.8 -4.1 230.6 3.7 -193.2 27.2 92.2 14.5
21,438 329 0.7 60,200 2.6 14.8 18.1 1.7 -5.6 101.2 -3.0 287.3 85.9 19.5 1.23,841 82 0.2 51,680 1.6 27.6 20.9 1.2 0.9 57.8 7.6 -45.1 35.5 37.2 1.2
890 17 0.3 49,930 2.5 31.9 21.6 1.1 1.2 49.6 10.0 4.4 70.7 49.9 0.4265 6 0.4 45,400 1.9 24.6 23.4 0.8 -0.3 59.5 0.1 93.5 50.2 25.9 1.0
2,675 66 0.4 42,000 1.7 22.9 21.2 1.0 -3.0 98.6 -1.3 87.4 64.9 40.9 3.0515 12 0.6 48,240 1.4 26.0 24.9 1.7 -1.2 100.2 -0.3 -8.6 36.3 49.5 0.6373 5 0.6 61,910 4.2 56.8 20.2 0.4 0.1 61.7 11.7 5.2 22.2 11.8 0.1
1,977 61 -0.1 39,640 1.1 21.3 18.5 0.8 -2.2 130.5 2.6 146.0 42.9 23.3 2.71,383 47 0.0 37,990 2.3 23.5 21.8 0.9 -2.2 96.0 0.9 209.8 52.4 25.6 1.6
229 10 -0.4 29,940 1.8 18.7 17.1 1.1 -0.5 119.2 0.6 170.2 63.2 31.7 3.1210 11 -0.3 27,620 2.3 14.4 16.9 0.4 0.2 173.6 -0.5 447.0 23.7 79.5 1.4354 6 0.4 52,390 1.9 27.8 21.3 0.7 -0.3 34.6 6.6 -37.9 28.9 71.5 3.8584 10 0.8 50,980 2.2 29.9 25.4 1.5 0.2 36.9 4.1 44.8 31.7 95.9 3.6
2,850 67 0.7 42,560 1.6 16.5 16.9 1.6 -1.4 84.5 -2.7 53.3 66.2 55.0 1.7400 5 1.2 63,980 2.3 31.1 28.1 2.6 5.0 34.7 6.8 -72.7 50.3 57.7 4.1
1,805 37 1.0 46,070 1.9 21.5 23.8 1.8 -1.0 86.6 -2.8 152.4 28.7 40.4 1.51,412 25 1.5 47,160 2.7 25.7 26.3 1.8 -0.9 40.7 -3.0 214.4 29.2 44.3 1.9
210 5 1.9 39,740 2.9 23.8 23.5 1.3 0.3 23.5 -3.6 175.2 48.1 42.2 3.3384 6 1.4 90,570 3.0 50.5 29.0 0.2 12.0 41.2 14.9 -134.8 24.7 132.7 5.5378 7 0.8 64,100 2.7 24.3 24.3 2.3 1.0 36.8 2.4 -115.4 14.2 161.7 5.6599 24 0.2 -- 2.4 32.9 20.3 0.8 -0.9 39.6 12.8 -246.6 1.7 310.6 13.9
13,355 1,422 0.5 15,470 6.1 45.0 42.9 1.9 -4.5 48.5 -0.0 -100.2 6.4 243.7 11.51,640 52 0.4 38,340 2.5 37.7 30.3 1.4 0.6 38.8 4.1 -64.5 11.5 225.0 7.1
383 33 1.5 28,650 4.6 31.0 24.8 2.2 -3.4 62.2 2.1 -20.8 9.2 104.6 4.7537 68 0.3 17,090 3.9 35.1 24.3 0.6 -0.7 34.6 6.0 -60.4 4.9 256.5 7.2
2,745 1,371 1.2 7,060 7.0 28.0 29.6 4.2 -6.9 71.0 -2.8 17.5 5.6 148.4 5.8358 108 1.6 10,030 6.6 14.4 25.8 3.0 -3.0 37.3 -1.9 -24.8 5.2 399.8 6.3
1,102 270 1.1 11,900 5.0 34.8 34.4 4.0 -1.9 29.4 -2.3 41.3 16.1 83.0 5.3264 98 1.1 6,040 6.8 24.6 20.8 2.9 -4.6 49.1 3.8 1.4 4.6 314.5 3.2
84 21 0.4 12,470 3.6 23.5 32.1 4.1 -5.1 81.8 -3.5 160.8 23.8 58.6 2.3260 11 0.1 34,450 2.9 34.7 25.3 1.5 0.9 30.9 0.5 -27.9 7.8 122.8 8.7383 9 1.6 37,910 3.0 21.9 20.9 0.1 -3.5 60.8 2.4 -143.8 6.7 351.6 11.4776 34 2.7 54,770 1.5 34.2 27.9 1.4 -6.9 22.8 5.3 -130.5 15.1 329.6 23.7599 38 -0.1 27,920 3.8 24.5 19.6 1.0 -2.2 48.6 -0.7 46.2 19.5 75.0 4.2367 59 1.6 12,830 2.1 19.4 18.9 5.2 -4.2 59.4 -3.6 68.4 9.9 83.3 4.4236 19 -0.5 22,370 3.2 22.0 25.3 1.5 -3.5 36.2 -4.3 43.3 11.5 122.2 4.0
1,583 147 0.4 24,890 1.5 29.1 22.9 6.8 1.9 16.5 4.8 -110.7 19.5 364.7 12.767 7 -0.6 19,190 3.5 21.7 22.3 0.9 0.5 21.3 1.4 -25.5 6.3 377.6 7.5
771 83 1.6 26,160 0.6 26.5 27.6 12.8 -2.8 31.3 -1.9 114.7 30.2 65.8 4.0157 10 -0.3 26,960 3.5 30.4 21.5 1.9 -2.0 70.1 1.8 9.9 12.0 147.9 2.6296 18 0.9 23,670 3.5 23.4 22.5 3.1 -1.7 26.4 -2.5 48.1 27.1 80.2 4.1
58 3 0.4 21,870 1.5 18.9 16.9 8.0 -3.1 64.4 -2.8 -55.6 12.2 304.9 9.2239 33 1.1 12,480 4.0 23.8 22.7 2.9 -2.5 25.0 -1.5 -12.9 13.7 249.3 11.0
1,242 133 1.3 17,840 2.1 22.4 23.3 4.1 -1.8 41.8 -1.9 14.3 8.1 107.5 3.7323 50 0.9 13,900 3.3 17.1 22.4 4.8 -1.3 40.8 -3.2 36.0 23.5 107.5 7.5
1,888 213 0.8 15,160 2.2 16.6 15.9 5.8 -7.8 81.5 -1.6 59.3 25.8 182.0 13.543 11 1.5 7,100 4.5 15.2 21.8 3.1 -6.0 39.3 -5.7 -8.1 9.6 396.7 5.9
411 45 1.0 20,270 -1.7 14.9 14.8 33.6 -4.2 89.0 -2.0 43.4 41.6 67.3 7.598 31 0.3 18,229 -5.0 40.5 35.8 2,274,291 -30.0 87.7 3.7 -197.7 52.7 22.3 4.0
49
2018 7-9 GDP +1.3%
BCB CEIC UFJ
Fitch Ratings2017 2018
2018 7-9
Fitch Ratings UFJ
IBGE (BCB) Bloomberg UFJIBGE UFJ
GDP
0
20
40
60
80
100
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
GDP( )
GDP( )
( )
(%) (%)
GDP( )
( )
(%) (%)
-450-400-350-300-250-200-150-100
-500
50100150200250300350400450
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
( )
( )
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
(%)
2018 7-9GDP
+1.3%
( )
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
2018 3 21 6.50%
2018 12 +3.75%
50
50
2017 12 11.8%
50 2019
MDB
BCB Bloomberg UFJIBGE UFJ
IBGE UFJ IBGE UFJ2005 9 100
2019 1 16
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
%
2018 1293.8
2018 11+4.4%
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% %
2018 1161.8%
2018 1111.6%
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
2018 12 52.6
2018 12 51.9
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.50
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
( : )
( ) ( / )
( : )
( )
51
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
(%)
GDP( )2004-05
2018 7-9GDP
+7.1%
( )
GDP( )2011-12
-350-300-250-200-150-100
-500
50100150200250300350
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
( )
( )0
20
40
60
80
100
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 ( )
(%) (%)
GDP( )
GDP( )
2017
2018 7-9 GDP +7.1% +8.2%
2018 12 +2.2% 6 +4.9%4% 2016 ( 2017 3 ) GDP 0.7% 2012 4.8%
2017 1.9%
( )
Fitch Ratings2017 2018-19
2018 7-9
GDP( )
GDP 2014 7-9 2012 4-62018 7-9 2018 12
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
(%)
( )
)
(RBI) CEIC UFJ
CEIC UFJ
Fitch Ratings UFJ
CEIC UFJ
52
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ( )
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
( )
2
(%)
) 2
( )
10
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
( )
(a)
(a+b+c)
( )
(b)
(c)
)
2018 68
2019 2018 12(BJP)
( )
2 ( )
(PMI)
2019 1 14 : 2019 1 14 : 1 4
2018 12 2018 11
(RBI) Bloomberg UFJ(RBI) Bloomberg UFJ
CEIC UFJ Markit Bloomberg UFJ
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 3,600 3,800 4,000 4,200 4,400
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
( )
( ) ( / )
( )
( )
53
-150
-125
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
( )
( )0
20
40
60
80
100
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 ( )
(%) (%)
GDP( )
GDP( )
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
(%)
GDP
2018 7-9GDP
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( )
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: 2018 12 : 2019 1 14
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Fitch Ratings2017 2018-19
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
(%)
2016 8 19 (1 2):
( )
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( )
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CEIC UFJ(BI)
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GDP
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UFJ
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2019 1 15 2018 7-9
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100
200
300
400
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
( )
( )
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0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
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2018 7-9GDP
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( )0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
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2018 12+20.30%+19.53%
+3 7%
0
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10
15
20
25
30
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
27.00%
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24.00%
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55
2,9482018 1-3
102.632004
117.752005
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
2,9872005
2017 26,117
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150-20,000
-15,000
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
1 7
1 7
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2018 1 104.56 114.55 10
1 100
2018 2019
2019 1 14 2018 11Bloomberg UFJ
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100
102
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70
80
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100
110
120
130
140
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8,000
10,000
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16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ( )
( ) ( / )
02468101214161820222426283032
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018
9.99
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2018
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60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
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1973 100
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4
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8
10
12
14
16
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
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20
70
120
170
220
270
320
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2006 2012
2013 2018
1990 .1994 2 1995 2.1999 6 2000 5 IT .2004 6 2006 6
. 2018
2019
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 19981999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20052006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
01234567 %
1992 1998
1999 20052013
2006 2012
-40-20
020406080 %
-40-20
020406080 %
9.11IT
-60-30
0306090 %
-20-10
010203040 %
65
8101214161820222426283032343638404244
-100-80-60-40-20
020406080
100120140160180
1990 1997 2004 2011 2018
PER
EPS
199016.9
15.4
2018
2018
MSCI USA EPS 12IT EPS
2018 12
EPS PER S&P500
S&P Bloomberg UFJ
EPS S&P500
EPS 2018 7-9 S&P2019 1 9 2018 12
EPS MSCI
Bloomberg UFJMSCI I/B/E/S UFJ
S&P500
3
Bloomberg UFJ
EPS Bloomberg PER EPS2018 12
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
2003 =100
IT
1949-52 2013-2016 2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,6002,8003,0003,200
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
EPS 42018 10-12 S&P
EPS2018 2019 2020+26.0% +8.5% +13.3%
IT2009
EPS S&P500
2018 PER
6.3 6.7
16.1
6.7
19.4
6.2
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 2 3 4
3+14.9%+17.6%
2 +26.2%
%
2017
66
2009 7 2018 12 114 2
NBER Bloomberg UFJ
1953 4 1976 12 10 1 2018 122018 12 1959 1 2018 11 NBER
10% 3
10 -2
S&P500
-3-2-101234
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
%
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
020406080
100120
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
2016 =100
A. B. B-A C. C-A1956 12 1957 10 1956 7 5 1957 12 1957 8 +8 1958 41959 9 1960 2 1959 7 2 1960 10 1960 4 +7 1961 2
1965 12 1967 2 1966 1 +1 1966 91967 12 1970 2 1968 11 +11 1970 6 1969 12 +24 1970 111973 3 1974 10 1972 12 3 1974 12 1973 11 +8 1975 51978 8 1980 4 1980 1 +17 1980 3 1980 1 +17 1980 71980 9 1982 6 1980 11 +2 1982 7 1981 7 +10 1982 111989 1 1989 9 1990 5 +16 1990 10 1990 7 +18 1991 31998 6 --- 1998 6 0 1998 82000 2 2000 11 2000 8 +6 2002 9 2001 3 +13 2001 11
2005 12 2007 5 2007 10 +22 2009 2 2007 12 +24 2009 6+5.9 +14.3
S&P500
---
---
67
2468
101214161820
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
%
2017 1-3
2016 4-6
2016 7-9
2011 1-3
2011 7-9
2010 1-3
2007 7-9
20054-6
2006 7-9
60708090
100110120130140150160170180190
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
2005 1-3 =100
2007 7
2012 3
200942006
4
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
2005 1-3 =100
20107-9
20084-6
20087-9
20087-9
20117-92009
10-12
S&P Green Street Advisors REIS Bloomberg Thomson Reuters Datastream UFJ
S&P REIT UFJ 2018 12S&P REIT UFJ
2018 12REIT 2019 1 11
2018 7-9S&P / 20 UFJ
2018 11 102018 7-9
050
100150200250300350400
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
2003 =100
100
325
+225
-100-50
050
100150200250300
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
2003 =0+225
+92
+133
-4-202468
101214
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
%
10
68
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
2004 =100
2012 9
2008 3
GDP
50
100
150
200
250
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
2003 =100
REIT
TOPIX
152
2007 5
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
2004 =100
2013 12
2008 8
02468
10121416
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
%
2007 11
2012 6
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0
0123456789
10
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
NAV
%
NAV 1
NAV
REIT TOPIX
2018 12 UFJ2018 12 NAV =2018 12 IPO2018 12 2007
2018 9 GDP 2018 7-96 UFJ 2007
2018 122018 7-9 UFJ 2007
Bloomberg UFJ
69
2019 3 21 EU 22-251 22 23 ( )
29 30 FOMC 24 ECB TAG( )
2 17 1 EPA( ) 5
( )
3 1 3 14 15 1 7 ECB 31 (10 )19 20 FOMC 21 22 EU
29 EU31
4 10 ECB 7 21 11 12 G2030 5 1 FOMC 14 24 25 12-14 IMF
30 17
5 23-26 1 ( ) 2631 ECB
6 18 19 FOMC 6 ECB 19 20 8 9 G2020 21 EU 22 23 ASEAN
28 29 G20OPEC
7-12 7 FOMC 7 ECB 7 (2013 ) 8 G79 FOMC 9 912 FOMC 9 10
9 ECB 10 10 G2010 10 1110 12 (COP25)10 EU 11 APEC10 11 ASEAN
12 OPEC10 ECB10 ECB12 EU
UFJ
BREXIT
FRB
2019
70
KO
KU
SAI A
sset Managem
ent Co., Ltd.70
2019 1 22
TOPIX TOPIX100 TOPIX Small REIT
MSCI ACWI MSCI WORLD MSCI KOKUSAI MSCI EM MSCI JAPAN MSCI USAMSCI Inc.
S&P REIT S&P S&P DJIS&P DJI S&P REIT
J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified J.P. Morgan GBI-EM BroadJ.P.
J.P.Copyright 2018 J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
FTSE FTSE FTSEFTSE FTSE Fixed Income LLC
FTSE Fixed Income LLCICE BofAML US High Yield Index ICE BofAML US Emerging Markets External Sovereign Index ICE BofAML US High YieldIndex ICE Data Indices, LLC ICE Data
ICE DataBloomberg Commodity IndexSM Bloomberg®
Bloomberg Finance L.P.Bloomberg Commodity
IndexSM UBS UBS Securities LLCUBS
UBS UBSUBS
Bloomberg Commodity IndexSM
Markit Economics Limited Markit Economics LimitedVIX
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