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Modeling Human Response to Threats and Disasters
John H. Sorensen
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
May 29-30, 2003
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Major Modeling Thrusts in Disaster Research
Warning ResponseWarning DiffusionEvacuation BehaviorProtective
Action EffectivenessPsycho-Social ImpactsIntelligent Consequence
Management
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Warning Response Research
Started in the 1950’sDriven by the shadow of nuclear warIf we
sound the sirens, what will people do?Series of studies - tornado,
hurricane, flood, explosion, air raid sirens, alien invasionsMajor
findings People seek more information People converge on event
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Warning Response Process
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Factors Increasing Response
Receiver CharacteristicsVisual and other cuesFamily and
networkFemaleYoungerMajority High SESNon-fatalistic
Sender CharacteristicMessage sourceMessage channelMessage
styleClearSpecificAccuracyCertainConsistencyMessage Content
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Alternative Responses to Natural and Technological Hazards
Do nothing/ denialConfirm warning/ seek informationEvacuate/
temporary relocationSeek protective shelter/ stay home/
isolationRespiratory protectionDecontaminateSeek medical
attentionHelp others
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Modeling Diffusion of Warning
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Intelligent Consequence Management
New sensor networks or links to existing sensor networks
designed to detect and monitor the threats of concernHigh-speed
communications and data exchangeReal-time simulation models running
on high-speed machinesFaster than real-time predictive
capabilitiesAdvanced decision support tools that can process data
and simulation outputs into a format useful to decision-makers
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ORNL LDRD
Dynamic evacuation modelingUtilize deployable road sensor tape
or existing monitorsFirst evacuation model with dynamic traffic
assignmentCan update simulations using real time dataLinked to
GIS
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Alerting Sensor
Sound Preparedness Alert
Intelligent Consequence Management Architecture for Rad/Chemical
Incident
Notify Emergency Response Team
Activate Monitors
Choose Protection Plan
Protection Action ES
Protective Action Library
Data Archive
Dispersion Scenario Library
Evacuate
Go To Safe Room
Generate Evacuation Plan
Generate Evacuation To Safe Room Plan
Distribute Plans (Electronically)
Classify Event
Activate Warning With Evacuation Instructions
RT Traffic Counters
Data Archive
Generate Sampling Plans
Generate Search & Rescue Plan
Distribute to Emergency Response Team
Generate Emergency Response Plan
Send in Response Team
Initiate Search & Response
Initiate Sampling
Initiate Decontamination
Activate Field Monitoring
Send Data
Outdoor Dispersion Model
Run Evacuation and Shelter Models
System components to be tested are in red
Accident Library
Damage Assessment
Run Economic Model
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Major Questions
How will warnings be issued to publics once a bio event is
identified?To what degree will human behavior in a bio event be
similar to other hazards?Will bio events elicit a different types
of human response than observed for other hazards?What are the
relevant parameters to model in a bio event?
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
SIRENS
TONE ALERT
TELEPHONE
MEDIA
SIRENS/TONE ALERTS
SIRENS/TELEPHONES
Time (min)
Portion receiving warnings
Diffusion Of Warnings
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
Sirens
Simulated Siren
Simulated Vs Observed at Nanticoke
Time
2:20
3:00
3:30
4:00
CUM. %
240
180
120
60
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
SIRENS
ROUTE
INFORMAL
MEDIA
Normalized Warning Diffusion by Source
Time
Cumulative Percent
1 am
2 am
3 am
4 am
PROTECTIVE
ACTION
EFFECTIVENESS
ACCIDENT
SCENARIO
DECISION
TO
WARN
WARNING
SYSTEM
DISPERSION
CODE
DOWN-
WIND
CONCENTRATION
MET
CONDITIONS
EXPECTED
DOSE
PROTECTIVE ACTION EFFECTIVENESS MODEL
PROTECTIVE
ACTION
HUMAN
RESPONSE
DOSE
REDUCTION
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Area One
Area Two
Area Three
Mobilization Time By Order of Evacuation
Time (min)
Cumulatve Percent
