4. Mercado de Divisas . Mercado de Divisas

Monografías de Juan Mascareñas sobre Finanzas Corporativas ISSN: 1988-1878

22. Mercado de Divisas

44. Mercado de Divisas. Mercado de Divisas

© Juan Mascareñas

Universidad Complutense de Madrid

Primera versión: enero 1991 - Última versión: agosto 2012

- Introducción al tipo de cambio, 1

- El tipo de cambio, 6

- Operaciones al contado y a plazo, 8

- El riesgo de cambio, 10

- ¿De qué depende el tipo de cambio?, 12

- La teoría de la paridad del poder adquisitivo, 14

- La teoría de la paridad de los tipos de interés, 17

- Las hipótesis de Fisher, 22

- La teoría de las expectativas, 25

- Bibliografía, 26

- Enlaces de interés, 27

- Anexos, 28



1

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2

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Veraneo escandaloso en la City elEconomista.es Eva M. Millán 11/08/2012 Standard Chartered y HSBC están acusados de aplicar prácticas ilegales de blanqueo de dinero, mientras que Barclays habría manipulado el Libor, el índice interbancario. Algo huele a podrido en la industria financiera británica. El gran centro neu-rálgico mundial, con permiso de Nueva York y Hong Kong, la City, trata de detener sin libro de instrucciones una sangría de escándalos de la que no se salvan ni entida-des que, hasta ahora, hacían de los "valores" el factor que definía su cultura. El úl-timo en sumarse al club de los bandidos es el hasta ahora inmaculado Standard Chartered, un banco que hasta esta semana no era siquiera masivamente conocido por el británico medio. Pese a contar con su base en Londres, el foco de negocios se dirige a Asia en la que, en el siglo XIX, se había plantado la semilla de un banco capaz de aglutinar 6.800 millones de dólares en beneficios anuales, mientras parte de sus rivales sufren todavía el color rojo en sus cuentas. Todo cambió, sin embargo, cuando un regulador norteamericano, relativamente nuevo, el Departamento de Servicios Financieros (DFS) del Estado de Nueva York, mandó a la compañía que hablaba de principios como su "primera y última línea de defensa" al mismo rincón de la vergüenza al que en poco más de un mes han ido a parar gigantes como HSBC o Barclays y al que parece en-caminarse inexorablemente RBS, un enfermo prácticamente tutelado por el Gobierno. La acusación de "maquinaciones" con Irán para esquivar la normativa de san-ciones norteamericana ha noqueado al hasta ahora indemne Standard Chartered y amenaza con nuevas bajas, puesto que existirían pruebas de prácticas similares con otros regímenes como Libia, Birmania o Sudán… …… Standard Chartered asegura que el informe del DFS no recoge un "retrato fiel", pero, por lo pronto, deberá comparecer ante el regulador neoyorquino a final de agosto para defenderse y, sobre todo, para evitar que se le retire la licencia pa-ra operar en Wall Street que obtuvo en 1976. La gravedad de las acusaciones justi-fica la demanda de una explicación. Incluso, para demostrar el argumento de la dirección del banco, que asegura que el 99,9 por ciento de las transacciones cum-plían con la normativa norteamericana. Sin embargo, el superintendente del DFS, Benjamín Lawsky, está convencido de que la entidad escondió 60.000 intercambios monetarios para instituciones de Teherán que estaban sujetas a las sanciones econó-micas de EEUU. El tono, por tanto, es incluso superior al del caso contra HSBC, pues-to que la acusación mantiene que, como consecuencia de acciones "intencionadas", el sistema financiero norteamericano habría quedado "vulnerable a terroristas, trafi-

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cantes de armas, señores de la guerra y regímenes corruptos". El método se habría desarrollado a partir de un sistema para ocultar la identidad del cliente iraní, mani-pulando el código SWIFT, necesario para los movimientos de dinero internacionales, y de esta manera evitar la legislación. La batalla está servida y las investigaciones continúan, pero lo que ha quedado claro en este verano de crisis es que los adjetivos para proclamar "la semana más dramática de la banca británica" encuentran el superlativo con cada movimiento del regulador.

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13

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14

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JJ "" ## .-#&0('K-#)0#.-#/-'$.-#&0('K-#)0#.-#/-'$)-)#)0.#/()0'#-)G*$@)-)#)0.#/()0'#-)G*$@ $&$L(##$&$L(## !!O&,$!,%-3E$/!(%1+($! +#+2+$04%#,%!$!\$J+(!Z+2$3(-!@!(%&$33-00$($!)-&,%3+-34%#,%!)-3!n'&,$J!V$&&%0.e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y%A'+0+13+-y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e!V<::O]/!n'&,$J!7.Y.^?R!oPB%!;3%&%#,!:+,'$,+-#!+#!,B%!b-3%+F#!OH2B$#F%&pD!J+(1(,"+)Q(0.1%2D!;)DR!^WNÛ!



15

%0!#+J%0!(%!)3%2+-&!(%!-,3-!)$E&/!%&!(%2+3/!3%0$2+-#$!0$&!,$&$&!(%!+#60$2+*#!%#!$41-&!)$E&%&!@!(%!$BE!(%3+J$!0$!#'%J$!3%0$2+*#!(%!+#,%32$41+-!(%!&'&!4-#%($&D!!!Q%$4-&!'#!%8%4)0-R!:')-#F$4-&!A'%!%0!J$0-3!(%!'#$!B$41'3F'%&$!%#!O&)$S$!%&!(%!W/U^!w!@!%#!0-&!O&,$(-&!"#+(-&!%&!W/U.!tD!;$3$!A'%!&%!2'4)0$!0$!,%-3E$!(%!0$!)$3+($(!(%0!)-(%3!$(NA'+&+,+J-/!(%1%3E$!-2'33+3!A'%!%0!,+)-!(%!2$41+-!(%0!%'3-!2-#!3%&)%2,-!$0!(*0$3!6'%&%!(%!./XW!O"Z[":\D!!:+%#(-!_;

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4-&!%#!%0!%8%4)0-!$#,%3+-3/!&%FM#!0$!6-34$!$1&-0',$!(%!%&,$!,%-3E$!%0!,+)-!(%!2$41+-!J%#(3G!($(-!)-3!0$!3%0$2+*#!%#,3%!0-&!E#(+2%&!(%!)3%2+-&!(%!$41-&!)$E&%&R!!

IP! = IP$ x S0(!/$) ! S0(!/$) = IP! ÷ IP$ !;%3-!0-&!E#(+2%&!(%!)3%2+-&!J$3E$#!$!0-!0$3F-!(%0!,+%4)-/!@!$!(+2B$!J$3+$2+*#!%&!$!0-!A'%!(%#-N4+#$4-&! ,$&$!(%! +#60$2+*#! 7F?/!)-3! 0-!A'%! &+! $! 0$!%H)3%&+*#!$#,%3+-3! 0$! 2$02'0$4-&!)$3$!'#!4-4%#,-!6','3-!(%0!,+%4)-!-1,%#(3%4-&R!!

IP! x (1 + g!) = IP$ x (1 + g$) x S0(!/$) x (1 + t!/$) !(-#(%!,

w[t!+#(+2$!0$!J$3+$2+*#!(%0!,+)-!(%!2$41+-!7%&!(%2+3/!:

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(1 + g!) = (1 + g$) x (1 + t!/$) 1 + g! = 1 + g$ + t!/$ + g$ x t!/$

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t!/$ = (g! – g$) !OH)3%&+*#!A'%!&%!(%3+J$!(%!(%&)3%2+$3!F

t!H!,

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16

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17

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18

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19

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(1 + i$) x F1(!/$) euros !;$3$! -1,%#%3! %&$! 2$#,+($(!B$! ,%#+(-!A'%!B$2%3! '#! (%&%41-0&-! (%! :X7w[t?! %'3-&D!\%! %&,%!4-(-/!0$!F$#$#2+$!%#!,C34+#-&!$1&-0',-&!&%3GR!!

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i! = [(1 + i$) x F1(!/$) - S0(!/$)] / S0(!/$) !A'%!%&,$3G!3%6%3+($!$0!)%3E-(-!(%!,+%4)-!A'%!,3$#&2'33%!%#,3%!%0!4-4%#,-!(%!0$!3%$0+5$2+*#!(%!0$!-)%3$2+*#!@!%0!(%!&'!J%#2+4+%#,-D!:+!$B-3$!-)%3$4-&!2-#!0$!%2'$2+*#!$#,%3+-3R!!

i! = (1 + i$) x [F1(!/$) / S0(!/$)] – 1 (1 + i!) / (1 + i$) = F1(!/$) / S0(!/$)

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!

F1(!/$) - S0 (!/$)S0 (!/$) = ie - i$

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!

F1(!/$) - 0,82(!/$)0,82(!/$) = 0,05 - 0,07

1 + 0,07 !

F1(!/$) = 0,8047 !

!



20

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fg!q!NWg?D!!0;#<3RS9=S3#=#T;=U3#VW39X=9:#<3RS9=<SY#P$0! J%5! 0$! 6-34$!4G&! &+4)0%! (%! )3-,%F%3&%! (%! 0$&! J$3+$2+-#%&! (%0! ,+)-! (%! 2$41+-! (%! '#$!(+J+&$!7%0!(*0$3/!)-3!%8%4)0-?!&%$!',+0+5$#(-!'#!+(1&.%&()%)'2%A(D!z&,%!-10+F$!$!$41$&!)$3,%&!$!3%$0+5$3!'#!+#,%32$41+-!(%,%34+#$(-!(%!(+J+&$&!%#!'#$!6%2B$!6','3$!(%,%34+#$($D!:%FM#!%0!4+&4-/!0$!%4)3%&$!%&,$3E$!(%!$2'%3(-!%#!$(A'+3+3!B-@!0$!(+J+&$!A'%!%00$!#%2%&+,$!$!'#!)3%2+-!)3%(%,%34+#$(-!7%0!&"'()!*)+%,-"()%)'2%A(?!)$3$!A'%!0%!&%$!%#,3%F$($!%#!'#$!6%2B$!2-#J%#+N($! 79*+/%) !*) *G'".%+"31?D! :+! &%! ,3$,$! (%! '#$! %4)3%&$! %'3-)%$! +4)-3,$(-3$/! )-3! %8%4)0-/!2'$#,-!4G&!$0,-!%&,C!%0!(*0$3!%#!0$!6%2B$!(%!%H)+3$2+*#!(%0!$2'%3(-/!4G&!J$0(3G!%0!2-#,3$,-!)$3$!2-4)3$3!(*0$3%&!$0!)3%2+-!)3%6+8$(-D!!\%!%&,$!4$#%3$!0$!2-41+#$2+*#!(%!0$!%H)-&+2+*#!$0!3+%&F-!&'1@$2%#,%/!A'%!)3-J+%#%!(%0!)3-N)+-!#%F-2+-!(%! 0$!%4)3%&$!70$! +4)-3,$2+*#?/!@!(%!&'!2-#,3$,-!(%!2$41+-!$!)0$5-!)%34$#%N2%3G!2-#&,$#,%D!O00-!%&!$&E!)-3A'%!&+!%0!(*0$3!&'1%/!&%!3%('2+3G#!0-&!1%#%6+2+-&!(%0!#%F-2+-!(%!0$!+4)-3,$2+*#!)%3-!(+2B$!3%('22+*#!&%3G!2-#,3$33%&,$($!)-3!%0!$'4%#,-!(%0!J$0-3!(%0!2-#N,3$,-!$!)0$5-D!;'%&,-!A'%!%#!0$!6%2B$!(%!%H)+3$2+*#!%0!J$0-3!(%0!4+&4-!(%)%#(%3G!(%!0$!(+6%N3%#2+$!%#,3%!%0!,+)-!(%!2$41+-!$!)0$5-/!A'%!6+F'3$!%#!%0!2-#,3$,-/!@!%0!,+)-!(%!2$41+-!(%!2-#N,$(-!%#!(+2B-!4-4%#,-D!]$!%H)-&+2+*#!(%!0$!%4)3%&$!,%#(3G!'#$!6-34$!(%!0E#%$!3%2,$!,$0!@!2-4-!&%!4'%&,3$!%#!0$!6+F'3$!^D!!

!b+FD^!O&A'%4$!(%!0-&!)$F-&!3%$0+5$(-&!$!,3$JC&!(%!0$!2-1%3,'3$!(%0!3+%&F-!4%(+$#,%!'#!2-#,3$,-!$!)0$5-!



21

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f!":\[O"ZD!O&,-!A'+%3%!(%2+3!A'%/!(%#,3-!(%!&%+&!4%&%&/!%0!1$#2-!0%!)3%&,$3G!fsfDdX.DUfd/s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bZ<!79(.;%.!).%&*)%6.**,*1&?/!A'%!%&!'#!2-#N,3$,-!%#!%0!A'%!(-&!)$3,%&!$2'%3($#!%0!,+)-!(%!+#,%3C&!A'%!&%!J$!$!)$F$3!&-13%!'#!(%)*&+,-!,%*3+2-/!2-#!'#!J%#2+4+%#,-!%&)%2E6+2-/!%#!'#$!(%,%34+#$($! 6%2B$! 6','3$D!]-!2'$0!)%34+,%!%0+4+#$3!%0!3+%&F-!(%!60'2,'$2+-#%&!%#!%0!,+)-!(%!+#,%3C&!('3$#,%!(+2B-!)%3E-(-D!O#!0$!6%2B$!(%!%H)+3$2+*#!%0!J$0-3!(%0!2-#,3$,-!&%3G!0+A'+($(-!%#!(+#%3-!&%FM#!&%$!0$!(+6%3%#2+$!%#,3%!%0!,+)-!bZ<!@!%0!(%!2-#,$(-!$0!A'%!&%!4'0,+)0+2$3G!0$!2$#,+($(!,%*3+2$!(%0!)3C&,$4-!-!(%)*&+,-D!!:+F'+%#(-! 2-#! #'%&,3-! %8%4)0-/! 0$! %4)3%&$!>$,$(-3! :D<D! ,+%#%! A'%! )%(+3! %0! )3C&,$4-!(%!fsfDdX.DUfd/s!%'3-&!(%#,3-!(%!&%+&!4%&%&!)%3-/!~A'C!-2'33%!&+!$0!00%F$3!$!(+2B$!6%2B$!0-&!,+N)-&!(%!+#,%3C&!B$#!$&2%#(+(-�/!0%!&$0(3G!4G&!2$3-D!;-3!&')'%&,-/!A'%!&+!B'1+%&%#!(%&2%#(+N(-! &%! $B-33$3G! $0F'#-&! +#,%3%&%&D! O&,-! %&! %0! 3+%&F-!(%! +#,%3C&D! ;$3$! %0+4+#$30-! 0$! %4)3%&$!)'%(%!3%$0+5$3!'#!2-#,3$,-!$!)0$5-!&-13%!,+)-&!(%!+#,%3C&!7bZ<?!2-#!&'!%#,+($(!1$#2$3+$!)-3!%0!A'%!&%!6+8$!%#!0$!$2,'$0+($(!%0!,+)-!(%!+#,%3C&!(%!'#!)3C&,$4-!$!3%$0+5$3!(%#,3-!(%!&%+&!4%N&%&D!<&E/!)-3!%8%4)0-/!&')-#F$4-&!A'%!%0!,+)-!(%!+#,%3C&!$!)0$5-!)$3$!%0!)3*H+4-!&%4%&,3%!7%H)3%&$(-!%#!,C34+#-&!$#'$0%&?!%&!(%0!Ug/!%0!2-&,%!&%3GR!!

fsfDdX.DUfd/s!H!X/XU!H!7.sX[e^X?!q!.YD^sUDXeY/ef!%'3-&!!)-3!,$#,-/!0$!%4)3%&$!)%(+3G!'#!)3C&,$4-!(%!fsfDdX.DUfd/s!w!)$F$3G!2$&+!WX!4+00-#%&!(%!%'N3-&!(%!+#,%3%&%&!&%4%&,3$0%&!@!%0!3%&,-!0-!2$#8%$3G!)-3!0-&!(*0$3%&!$0!,+)-!(%!2$41+-!$!)0$5-!)$2,$(-D!



22

! !!

ZZ "" ## .-@#[$/,&0@$@#)0#\[email protected]@#[$/,&0@$@#)0#\$@[0'[0' ##!.=#]6T^S7464#<799=:=# #]-&!,+)-&!(%! +#,%3C&!',+0+5$(-&!%#! 0$&! ,3$#&$22+-#%&! 6+#$#2+%3$&!(+$3+$&!&-#!&"'($)1(,"1%2*$/!A'%!%H)3%&$#!0$!3%0$2+*#!(%!+#,%32$41+-!%#,3%!%0!J$0-3!$2,'$0!(%!'#$!4-#%($!@!&'!J$0-3!6','N3-D!;-3!%8%4)0-/!%#!'#-!(%!0-&!2$&-&!$#,%3+-3%&/!%0!Ug!(%!+#,%3C&!A'%!)$F$1$!%0!(%)*&+,-!%#!%'3-&!-!%0!fg!A'%!)$F$1$!%0!(%#-4+#$(-!%#!(*0$3%&!&-#!,+)-&!#-4+#$0%&/!A'%!#-&!(+2%#!A'%!'#!%'3-!@!'#!(*0$3!(%)-&+,$(-&!B-@!%A'+J$0(3G#/!3%&)%2,+J$4%#,%/!$!./XU!%'3-&!@!$!./Xf!(*N0$3%&!(%#,3-!(%!'#!$S-D!:+#!%41$3F-/!0-&!,+)-&!(%!+#,%3C&!#-4+#$0%&!#-!+#(+2$#!2'G#,-&!1+%#N%&!@!&%3J+2+-&!)-(3G#!$(A'+3+3&%!2-#!./XU!%'3-&!-!2-#!./Xf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b+&B%3.f!&%S$0*!A'%!0$!,$&$!(%!+#,%3C&!#-4+#$0!76?!&%!2-4)-#E$!(%!0$!,$&$!(%!3%#(+4+%#,-!3%$0!(%4$#($!)-3!0-&!+#J%3&-3%&!79?!@!0$!,$&$!%&)%3$($!(%!+#60$2+*#!7_?/!$!,3$JC&!(%!0$!(%#-4+#$($!.*2%+"31)!*)="$/*.R!

!(1 + i) = (1 + r) x (1 + g)

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g!76N?/!4+%#,3$&!A'%!%0!(%0!(*0$3!%&!(%0!fg!76O?a!0$!,$&$!(%!+#60$2+*#!%&)%3$($!)$3$!0$!O'3-5-#$!@!)$3$!0-&!O&,$(-&!

17 b_:cOZ/!_3J+#F!7.YeX?R!>/*)>/*(.8)(9)<1&*.*$&D!>$24+00$#D!I'%J$!K-3LD



23

"#+(-&! &%3G#/! 3%&)%2,+J$4%#,%/!_N! @!_OD! V-#! %&,-&! ($,-&! )-(%4-&! 2$02'0$3! 0$! 3%#,$1+0+($(!3%$0!(%!2$($!4-#%($!79N!@!9O?R!!

1 + i! = (1 + r!) x (1 + g!) y 1 + i$ = (1 + r$) x (1 + g$) !:+!$B-3$!3%&,$4-&!%&,$&!(-&!%2'$2+-#%&!@!&')-#%4-&!A'%!&%!2'4)0%!%0!%6%2,-!b+&B%3/!%&!(%N2+3/!A'%!3w!q!3t!q!3/!-1,%#(3%4-&R!!

i! - i$ = (1 + r) x (g! - g$) !(+J+(+%#(-!$41-&!4+%413-&!)-3!7.!r!3?R!!

(i! - i$) / (1+r) = (g! - g$) !(+J+(+%#(-!$B-3$!$41-&!4+%413-&!)-3!7.!r!F

t?!@!3%2-3($#(-!A'%!$0!4'0,+)0+2$3!%&,%!6$2,-3!

)-3! 7.!r! 3?!-1,%#(3%4-&! 7.!r! +t?!)-(3%4-&!-1,%#%3! 0$!%H)3%&+*#!A'%!4'%&,3$!%0!%6%2,-!b+N

&B%3R!!

!

i! - i$1 + i$

= g! - g$1 + g$

!

!O&,$!%H)3%&+*#!&%!)'%(%!&+4)0+6+2$3!$0!&')-#%3!,$#,-!A'%!3w!q!+w!N!Fw!2-4-!A'%!3t!q!+t!N!Ft/!@!($(-!A'%/!&%FM#!%0!%6%2,-!b+&B%3/!3

w!q!3

t!q!3a!+F'$0$#(-!$41$&!%H)3%&+-#%&!)-(3%4-&!2-#20'+3!

A'%!0-&!(+6%3%#2+$0%&!(%!+#,%3C&!@!(%!+#60$2+*#!&-#!)3G2,+2$4%#,%!+F'$0%&R!!

i! - i$ = g! - g$ !O#!%&,$!,%-3E$!#-!8'%F$!#+#FM#!)$)%0!(+3%2,-!%0!,+)-!(%!2$41+-/!)%3-!&E!$!,3$JC&!(%!0-&!4%32$N(-&!A'%!B$2%#!)-&+10%!%&$!+F'$0($(D!<&E/!&+!%0!(+6%3%#2+$0!(%!+#60$2+*#!(%!0-&!O&,$(-&!"#+(-&!2-#!3%&)%2,-!$!0$!O'3-5-#$!%&!(%0!Wg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`2?D!!:%FM#!b+&B%3/!0$!3%#,$1+0+($(!,-,$0!(%0!+#J%3&-3!+#,%3#$2+-#$0!(%1%!&%3!+F'$0!$!0$3F-!)0$5-!%#N,3%!0-&!(+6%3%#,%&!)$E&%&D!P$41+C#!$!0$3F-!)0$5-/!(%1%3G!-2'33+3!A'%!$A'%0!)$E&!A'%!-63%52$!'#!4%#-3!,+)-!(%!+#,%3C&!#-4+#$0!(%1$!%0%J$3!%0!J$0-3!(%!&'!4-#%($!)$3$!)3-)-32+-#$3!$0!+#J%3&-3! '#!1%#%6+2+-! A'%! 0%! 2-4)%#&%!(%0!4%#-3! ,+)-!(%! +#,%3C&D! ;-3! %0! 2-#,3$3+-/! $A'%0!



24

)$E&!2-#!'#!4$@-3!,+)-!(%!+#,%3C&!#-4+#$0!J%3G!(+&4+#'+3!%0!J$0-3!(%!&'!4-#%($/!2-#!0-!A'%!&%! +F'$0$3G! 0$!3%#,$1+0+($(!,-,$0!(%0! +#J%3&-3!%#,3%!%&,-&!(-&!)$E&%&D!<&E/!&+!%0!(+6%3%#2+$0!(%!,+)-&!(%!+#,%3C&!7+t!N!+w?!%#,3%!O&,$(-&!"#+(-&!@!0$!O'3-5-#$!%&!(%0!Wg/!%0!(*0$3!(%1%3E$!(%)3%N2+$3&%!%#!'#!WgD!!;$3,+%#(-!(%!0$!)$3+($(!(%0!)-(%3!$(A'+&+,+J-!@!(%0!*9*+&()="$/*.R!!

(i! - i$) / (1 + i$) = (g! - g$) / (1 + g$) t!/$ = (g! - g$) / (1 + g$)

!!%!+F'$0$#(-!$41$&!%H)3%&+-#%&/!-1,%#(3%4-&R!!

!

t!/$ =i! - i$1 + i$

!!-!%#!&'!%H)3%&+*#!&+4)0+6+2$($R!!

t!/$ = i! - i$ !(%!(-#(%R!!

i! = i$ + t!/$ !!0a6:7R<6=#75Tb96<=#]$!3%0$2+*#!(%!b+&B%3!%&!2-#&+&,%#,%!2-#!0$!%J+(%#2+$!%4)E3+2$a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a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



25

A'%!0-&!+#J%3&-3%&!$(A'+3+3G#!(+2B$!(+J+&$!2-#!-18%,-!(%!&$2$3!'#!1%#%6+2+-!(%!&'!4$@-3!3%#N(+4+%#,-!3%$0!0-!A'%!)3-J-2$3G!'#$!$)3%2+$2+*#!(%!0$!4+&4$D!!O#!2-#20'&+*#/!#-!)$3%2%!%H+&,+3!'#$!%J+(%#2+$!%4)E3+2$!2-#20'@%#,%!&-13%!'#$!3%0$2+*#!%&,$N10%!@!)3%(%2+10%!%#,3%!0$&!J$3+$2+-#%&!(%!0-&!,+)-&!(%!+#,%3C&!#-4+#$0%&!@!0$&!(%!0-&!,+)-&!(%!2$41+-D!!!##

cc "" ## .-#&0('K-#)0#.-@#0d/.-#&0('K-#)0#.-@#0d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s!w[t/!%#!0$!$2,'$0+($(!%0!,+)-!(%!2$41+-!$!)0$5-!$!'#!$S-!(%1%3E$!(%!&%3!%0!4+&4-D!:+!%00-!#-!6'%&%!$&E/!)-3!%8%4)0-/!&+!%&,%!M0,+4-!6'%&%!4G&!$0,-!NX/sU!O"Z[":\!)-3!%8%4)0-N!0-&!+#J%3N&-3%&!&%!0$#5$3E$#!$!J%#(%3!(*0$3%&!$!)0$5-!2-#!0-!A'%!3%2+1+3E$#!(%#,3-!(%!'#!$S-!X/sU!O"Z!)-3!2$($!(*0$3/!4-4%#,-!%#!%0!A'%!&+!&'&!%H)%2,$,+J$&!&%!2'4)0%#!%0!,+)-!(%!2-#,$(-!%&!(%!X/s!O"Z[":\!2-#!0-!A'%!J-0J%3E$#!$!2$41+$3!&'&!X/sU!%'3-&!)-3!(*0$3%&!@!3%2+1+3E$#!./X^WU!(*0$3%&/!%&!(%2+3/!^/WU!2%#,$J-&!(%!1%#%6+2+-!)-3!2$($!(*0$3D!;%3-!2-4-!%&,%!3$5-#$4+%#,-!0-!B$3E$#!,-(-&!0-&!+#J%3&-3%&!#$(+%!A'%33E$!J%#(%3!%'3-&!$!)0$5-!$!2$41+-!(%!(*0$3%&!)-3!0-!A'%!#-!6'#2+-#$3E$!%0!4%32$(-!(%!(+J+&$!$!)0$5-!O"Z[":\D!!;$3$!(%4-&,3$3!%&,$! ,%-3E$!(%1%3%4-&!',+0+5$3! 0$&! ,3%&!$#,%3+-3%&/! $&E!A'%! 3%2-3(%4-&! &'&!2-#20'&+-#%&R!!

$?!;$3+($(!(%!0-&!,+)-&!(%!+#,%3C&R!!+b!q!

!

F1(!/$) - S0 (!/$)S0 (!/$) = i! - i$

1 + i$!

1?!O6%2,-!b+&B%3R!

!

i! - i$1 + i$

= g! - g$1 + g$

!

2?!;$3+($(!)-(%3!$(A'+&+,+J-R!

!

t!/$ = g! - g$1 + g$

!

!



26

V-4-!&%!-1&%3J$/!$0!&%3!,-($&!+F'$0($(%&/!,+%#%!A'%!2'4)0+3&%!A'%!0$!J$3+$2+*#!%&)%3$($!(%!0-&! ,+)-&! (%! 2-#,$(-! ,+%#%!A'%! 2-+#2+(+3! 2-#! 0-&! (+6%3%#2+$0%&! %#,3%! 0-&! ,+)-&! $! )0$5-! @! (%!2-#,$(-R!!

t!/$ = iF !-!(+2B-!(%!-,3$!4$#%3$!@!&')-#+%#(-!A'%!%0!)0$5-!&%$!(%!,!)%3E-(-&R!!

!

S1(!/$) - S0 (!/$)S0 (!/$) = F1(!/$) - S0 (!/$)

S0 (!/$) !

!(-#(%!:

.7w[t?!3%)3%&%#,$!$0!,+)-!(%!2$41+-!$0!2-#,$(-!w[t!%#!%0!4-4%#,-!.D!:+!%&,-&!(-&!,+N

)-&!(%!2$41+-!%&,G#!3%6%3+(-&!$0!4+&4-!)%3E-(-!(%!,+%4)-!:X7w[t?!&%3G!%0!4+&4-!)$3$!$4N

1-&/!)-3!0-!A'%!B%4-&!(%!(%('2+3!A'%R!!

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

<Z<nÌz:/!T-&C!ZD!7.YYX?R!J+(1(,E%)="1%1+"*.%)<1&*.1%+"(1%2D!;+3G4+(%D!>$(3+(D!9<lOZ/!T$4%&!7.YYs?R!<1&*.1%&"(1%2)="1%1+*D!;3%#,+2%!c$00D!"))%3!:$((0%!Z+J%3D!

><:V<ZOÄ<:/! T'$#! 7WXXs?R! oP+)-! (%! V$41+-! @! Z+%&F-! (%! V$41+-pD!R(1(6.%9E%$) !*) Q0%1)R%$+%.*T%$) $(-.*)

="1%1A%$)?(.'(.%&"#%$!#v!WWD!\%&2$3F$10%!%#!B,,)R[[jjjD'24D%&[+#6-[84$&[4-#-F3$6DB,4!Z_Oc]/!cD/!@!Z`\Z_n"Oh/!ZD!7.YsU?R!R*.+%!($)!*)U"#"$%$)8)R*.+%!($)!*)U"1*.(C)_#,%3$4%3+2$#$D!>$(3+(D!:`]I_l/!93'#-!7.YYe?R!<1#*.$"(1*$)<1&*.1%+"(1%2*$D!<((+&-#!m%&0%@!_1%3-$4%3+2$#$D!m+04+#F,-#!7\%0?D!



27

PKn_OZ/!V0$'(%!7.Yss?R!V%$"+)W%1!-((4)(9)=(.*"61)JG+/%16*D!O'3-4-#%@D!]-#(3%&D!!

!!!

0%.-+0@#)0#$%&0'H@0%.-+0@#)0#$%&0'H@ ##V-,+5$0+$!7B,,)R[[jjjD2-,+5$0+$D%&?!

bP!74%32$(-&?!7B,,)R[[4$3L%,&D6,D2-4?!

_#J%&,-)%(+$!7B,,)R[[jjjD+#J%&,-)%(+$D2-4?!

!

!

!



28

Anexo I Nomenclatura de las principales divisas

ARS – pesos argentinos AUD – dólares australianos BOB – bolívares bolivianos BRL – reales brasileños CAD – dólares canadienses CHF – francos suizos CLP – pesos chilenos CNY – yuanes chinos COP – pesos colombianos CZK – coronas checas DKK – coronas danesas EUR – euros GBP – libras esterlinas GTQ – quetzales guatemaltecos HKD – dólares de Hong Kong HUF – florines húngaros ILS – shéquels israelíes INR – rupias indias JPY – yenes japoneses MXN – pesos mexicanos (nuevos pesos) NOK – coronas noruegas NZD – dólares neozelandeses PEN – soles peruanos PLN – zlotys polacos PYG – guaraníes paraguayos RUB – rublos rusos SEK – coronas suecas SGD – dólares de Singapur TRY – liras turcas USD – dólares de los Estados Unidos UYP – pesos uruguayos VEB – bolívares venezolanos ZAR – rands sudafricanos



29

Anexo II Amas de casa desesperadas (en el mercado de divisas)

El Mundo. Pablo Pardo. 12-Abril-2012 Watanabe es, según Wikipedia (dónde si no), el quinto apellido más común en Ja-pón. También es el nombre coloquial de las amas de casa niponas que invierten en mercados financieros fuera del país. Puede parecer exótico eso de que un ama de casa invierta en divisa extranjera. Y lo es. Pero no en Japón. El mercado de divi-sas de particulares en Japón es mayor que el de todos los demás países del mun-do juntos.

La señora Watanabe se endeuda en Japón a tipos cerca-nos al 0%, y compra deuda brasileña que da más del 10%. Otras veces compra derivados (activos cuyo precio de-pende de otros activos) en Brasil que utilizan como subya-cente (es decir, los activos de los que dependen su precio e interés) deuda de alto riesgo de Estados Unidos. Eso es lo que se llama 'carry trade': endeudarse en una divisa ba-rata y encima con intereses bajos (el yen) y comprar con intereses altos (el real). No es algo nuevo. En los noventa, mi amigo Manolo P. se compró su piso en Barcelona contra-

tando una hipoteca en yenes. Si encima el real se aprecia, como pasa a menudo, la ganancia es aún mayor para Watanabe. Aunque si sucede lo contrario, como pasó hace tres años, el ama de casa se estrella. No es de extrañar que ahora el ministro de Finanzas brasileño, Guido Mantega, y la presidenta de ese país, Dilma Rousseff estén neuras perdi-dos con Watanabe, que les sube y les sube el precio del real. Porque esta activi-dad es además una profecía que se autocumple: al invertir fuera de Japón, Watanabe y sus amigas devalúan el yen, y al comprar reales aprecian esa di-visa. Watanabe no sólo invierte en Brasil, obviamente. También lo hace en EEUU, en la eurozona y, últimamente, en algunos otros mercados emergentes, como Turquía. En esas operaciones, tiene alrededor de un cuarto de billón de euros en divisas. Ahora, Dilma Rousseff ha venido a Estados Unidos a quejarse entre otras co-sas de la política monetaria de EEUU y de la UE que es, en su opinión, dema-siado laxa e inunda al mundo de dólares y euros y empuja al alza al real. Es cier-to, pero no lo es menos que el 'carry trade' es sobre todo un invento japonés. Y no lo es menos que Brasil, con sus tipos de alto exageradamente altos, con su peculiarísimo banco de desarrollo (el BNDES), que es casi 'un Estado dentro del Estado' para financiar a grandes empresas a tipos preferentes, o su sis-tema financiero que todavía sigue sin desarrollarse plenamente, tiene que re-solver sus propios problemas antes de echarle la culpa de sus problemas a las amas de casa de Japón, a Ben Bernanke o a Mario Draghi.

Documents

4. Mercado de Divisas . Mercado de Divisas