-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
1/116
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
2/116
2
.
e-
Copyright :
Greek Society of Technical Analysis Ltd
()
www.sta-gr.comwww-ekta1.gr
[email protected]
http://www.sta-gr.com/http://www.sta-gr.com/http://www.ekta1.gr/http://www.ekta1.gr/http://www.ekta1.gr/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.ekta1.gr/http://www.sta-gr.com/
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
3/116
3
: ;
................................................................................
4
, &
.....................................................................
6
.......................................................................................
8
............................................................................................................
9
...................................................................
11
.......................................................................................................
13
' ( 1) ........................................ 17
' ( 2) ........................................ 19
12 2,5 , 1 ............... 24
,
..................................................................................
26
' ';
.....................................................................
29
11% 3,5 : ;........... 33
..
.................................................................................
36
................................................................................................................................
38
.......................................................................................................
40
: Rothschild
......................................................................
42
& : Goldman Sachs, Fitch, Moodys, S&P,
................................................. 45
: ..
........................................................................................
49
, ,
....................................................................................
52
Moodys: ...
.........................................................................
54
&
................................................................................................
56
&
.......................................................................................................
57
.......................................................................................
59
.........................................................................
61
.......................................................................................................
63
, Siemens, Vodafone & Shell
.....................................................................................
70
;
....................................................................................................
71
- & &
.................................................................................................
73
(1) .................... 76
(): ....................... 79
Corp:
........................................................................
81
...................................................... 83
...........................................................................
85
......................................................................................
87
, ..
...........................................................................................
92
..........................................................................
94
1981-2020:
.....................................................................................
96
....................................................................
101
;..............................................................
103
........ 105
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
4/116
4
01-04-2009
: ; . , ,
;
,
;
,
,
.
.
,
.
1790
, ,
, .
,
. '
.
,
.
:
10 .
, ..
,
, ,
.
1792 , ,
, William Duer,
, .
, .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
5/116
5
1792 William Senton,
,
,
,
.
. ,
' . , ,
, .
, 1817 New York Stock
Exchange Board, ,
. , , ' , 1792
.
. 1792
, ,
.
, , hedge funds, off shore ,
. ,
, .
, , ,
, .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
6/116
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
7/116
7
, Goldman Sacks,
, Goldman
Budensbank,
, 2011.
, 1
, Christine Lagarde,
, .
,
, ,
.
, , ,
,
, .
, , ,
,
,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
8/116
8
07-04-2010
,
,
, ,
.
, ,
,
,
, , ,
,
.
, ,
, , , ,
.
, , ,
, , .
, ,
,
, , .
, ,
, ,
.
,
, .
, , , ,
, , .
, , , ,
.
.
.
,
, , .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
9/116
9
08-04-2010
7 29 , , 2,2%
6,37% 6% .
, ,
,
.
2010 13 , , ,
, Bloomberg, 40% ,
32 ,
, , ,
. , CDS, '
25,89%, 8
, , , , ,
9 10 .
, 7 10 , , , .
,
, , CDS
. ,
Cambridge, 21
1989 2010 ( PLoS Medicine)
,
,
.
, , , ,
CDS,
, , .
,
, , 2,9%
0,9% , , 0,5%.
24,9%
, , 3,1%.
2001, , , ,
, 30%
, .
2000
0,7%, 2,3% , , 2,9%.
, ,
20-30% . ,
10 , ,
, 12%.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
10/116
10
40% , 12%
5 , , .
, , 5%
10%,
.
, ,
, , , 15-20%.
, 18
, , 18%,
4% 2010.
8%, .
, ,
, , ,
, , ,
, . ,
. ,
,
.
, .
, , 20% ,
15%, , , ,
150%, . , , , ,
, ,
,
, .
, 5 1
,
.
, ,
, ,
. ,
2010,
, . ,
, , ,
.
, , .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
11/116
11
16-04-2010
,
. , , ,
.
/ .
, .
.
()
. ,
.
, . ,
, , ,
, .
10 ,
2009, 4,5% 2010, 7,40%, 65%
5 125% 2 464%
, .
, .
, ,
, ,
,
.
, , 2010
11,9% ( ), ,
, ,
.
,
. , , , 2009 , .
,
, ,
, 1992
1997.
, ,
. ,
, ,
,
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
12/116
12
,
.
,
1 ,
. ,
,
, , , .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
13/116
13
17-04-2010
,
. ,
(GSTA Ltd), , tvxs.gr,
, . ,
, : casting
, . spread .
tvxs.gr, .
,
.
, , ,
.
,
.
spread 13
2010,
( ) ,
,
,
.
,
, :
. , .
, ,
:
,
.
. tvxs.gr:
spread, ;
, , ,
, (...) ,
, .
;
CDS,
5 . ,
. , , ,
. , , CDS, , .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
14/116
14
, , , ,
.
spread;
, spreads,
13 2010.
; spread; spreads
, ,
, ,
.
,
.
, , .
, , , . , ,
. .
, , .
, ; H
, - ; ;
, , ,
. ,
.
.
;
. .
; (
);
,
, , ,
. .
,
.
, .
. .
. , , ,
.
() ;
.
.
7 10
,
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
15/116
15
.
.
,
. , ,
, . ,
, 19 project , , , 2.
;
, , .
2 .
, , , ,
. ,
, .
,
, 2000
,
, ,
.
.
, , ,
;
,
.
.
.
,
, ,
,
, .
.
, .
,
. , .
, 15-18% 1 5
,
, .
, ,
.
.
,
, , , . .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
16/116
16
, , .
. ,
.
12 .
,
. ,
.
, ;
;
,
, .
,
,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
17/116
17
20-04-2010
' ( 1) IV ,
, ,
,
. .
,
, ' 4
,
, (
) , 90 2000 ,
, , , , ,
,
, ,
.
, 2010, 90 2000
, , 110% - 114%,
12,7%, 8,8%,
( ) 7%, 10,6%,
1% 2% 3,9%.
90 ( )
90, ,
, 110% , 6%, 13,5%,
, , 13%, 10%, 2,5%
7%.
, , ,
90, ,
, 2
.
00 ( )
2000, 105% , 5%,
11%, 5,5%, 10%,
3,5%4% 3,5% 4%.
, , ,
00, 150% ,
30% , ,
, 2010 , .
;
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
18/116
18
,
10 20 , ,
. ,
90, 85% 2000 30%
, 9,25%,
.
.
, , 26
2010, ,
( )
8.2% 2008
, , , .
, , ,
,
,
, .
, , 30 2010,
: () ,
2009 3,25% 0,2% ,
5,7% 2010,
. ,
.
, ( )
, 2011.
,
.
, 2,750%
,
, , , , ,
, , , ,
, ,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
19/116
19
21-04-2010
' ( 2) 1
. , ,
, ,
1 2010 John Lipsky
: , , , ,
G20 . , ,
, , . , (
) , .
, ,
75% 2007, 110% 2014,
. 2014
85% G7 . ,
2010,
1950, .
110 114%
3,5 ,
,
20 . ,
, , , . ,
.
, , , , ;
12,7% , 6
( , , ) 10,41%, 9 9,61%,
7%, ,
, 1,4% , 1,5% 0,2%
.
, , , , ,
2000 .
,
, .
, , , ,
, 1996
, , , ,
,
. ,
: , 1996 ,
, ( ) .
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
20/116
20
, , Goldman,
, Goldman,
,
, . ,
.
, , ,
, ;
1) / 2008
2008,
:
, ,
,
, .
,
. ,
,
. ,
.
..
14% 2008 2010.
2000 , ,
2 , 2000-2003,
2006 , ,
, / ,
2008 1929
80 .
2)
3 ,
, 30 . .
( ) : ) ,
, ) , (
)
, ) ,
) ,
,
.
5346 1457 73%
1,5 . ,
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
21/116
21
,
,
.
, ,
2008,
, , ,
.
, .
2008 2008
.
3)
, , , 2006, 2007.
, . ,
,
.
4)
,
, , .
5)
.
, , ,
, ,
, .
6)
, ,
, 1
, .
7)
, ,
. , 2
.
( ) . , ,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
22/116
22
,
, .
8)
, ,
. , .
:
(
),
, . , , ,
. hedge funds 200% 400%
, ,
, .
9)
,
.
,
.
10)
1 , 90
10% . , ,
. ,
.
, ,
,
.
11) .
, ,
. ,
. ,
,
.
, , ,
,
, .
,
,
,
, , ,
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
23/116
23
. , , ,
, , ,
, , .
3
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
24/116
24
23-04-2010
12 2,5 , 1 CDS
, , .
CDS
, (
)
.
, CDS
,
. CDS
, : CDS
,
.
, CDS ,
, , hedge funds
/ ,
.
, CDS, ,
, .
CDS , ,
,
short , , ,
, , .
CDS,
, . , ,
, , ,
CDS.
, ,
. , , ,
,
short, ,
.
CDS,
,
( spreads ),
. CDS ,
, , .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
25/116
25
, (
, CDS),
,
CDS.
CDS , , ,
. , CDS 1 ,
100 .
CDS 2007,
,
,
2,5 .
12204 , , ,
CDS 4,6 , 2007, 566 ,
,
.
10%, 1
2007 12,204
, , ,
, , (
). , ,
,
, ,
,
CDS.
,
CDS , ,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
26/116
26
25-04-2010
, 05 1993
, .
.
, (),
.
Bundesbank Helmut Schlesinger
. ,
, ' '
.
, , ,
, , , , .
,
,
, , 8,00%.
, ,
. ,
, ,
.
. ,
, , , . , (
) . ,
,
, , , ,
,
.
:
. , . ,
, , ,
, .
, ,
,
.
.
.
. ,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
27/116
27
Theo Waigel
. Ruairi
Quinn, ,
. Michel Sapin
.
. .
,
.
. , , , , ,
, , . traders
,
.
Maastricht. , , Bundesbank
9,50 9,00%, Bundesbank
.
, , ,
.
.' , ,
.
, traders, .
,
.
:
, ,
. , ,
, .
,
, , ,
.
, . ,
.
, , , , ,
,
,
1979.
Helmut Kohl,
' , , ,
,
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
28/116
28
. , ,
.
.
Pierre Beregovoy ,
.
, ,
.
83% 92 51%.
, ,
61 , ,
.
,
.
7,00%, ,
15%. 2,25%.
14
. , ,
189 . . 16 , . , ,
.
,
. ,
. .
.
, ,
, .
2009,
' ',
, , ,
. , ,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
29/116
29
28-04-2010
' '; 70 /
. Paul Volcker,
(1969 1974) , ,
, ,
, .
(, ,
) , ,
, ( , , ),
, , ,
, , .
, , , , ,
, , ,
, ,
, ,
, 1979 (),
(), , ,
, 2,5%.
900% ,
, , . ,
.
, , ,
, (),
.
,
.
, , , , ,
. , ,
, , 80
,
( , 1997),
20% ,
.
90,
, 2,5%
(, , , , , )
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
30/116
30
,
,
, , .
, , ,
,
. ,
, 1998,
, .
(
8,4% 12,8% ) 12,3% ,
.
,
() .
, ,
, , ,
,
,
..
, , ,
, 100% 1999 . , ,
, 80
90, . 90 ,
, ,
.
,
, 1990,
, , ,
( , , ).
, ,
( , ),
,
,
.
,
, CDS
( ), 10 5 1 ,
, , 46,7% , ,
. ,
6 , 26,11% 10 5,53%,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
31/116
31
12 27 , CDS
, CDS 60
325 .
, CDS 100
250 , 70%
CDS 145 200 .
,
,
, , ,
, ,
,
, .
, , ,
, 1997 ,
, . ,
, 2006, ,
,
2006 , , ,
,
, .
, , , , , , , ,
, ,
.
,
, ,
, ,
, , , .
, , , ,
, , , ,
, , , ,
, .
, , ,
, 10, ,
115% ,
2014 3%,
, .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
32/116
32
,
, ,
Paul Volcker,
,
. , ,
,
,
, , 90
, , 1997,
. , ,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
33/116
33
04-05-2010
11% 3,5 : ; , ,
3%, 2012. , , (
), 2014.
2010 2%. 4%.
10 , , 3
, .
, , , ,
110 ,
, ,
( ) 11% 3,5 .
,
, ;
40
;
, 40 ,
, 31 ( )
, , '
'.
8,3%,
2,7% 7,2
, 119% .
5
40 , 8,92%, 2,08%
8,2 , , ,
.
,
.
, 1970 9
,
10% 8,2 .
' ' , ,
, '
, 20% 11 ( 1979 1989),
13,3% 7 (1994-2000).
12,3% 4 (1982-1986),
12,1% ( 1,1%
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
34/116
34
) 6 (1990-1995)
.
' ' , ,
11,1% 3 (1981-1983),
15 11,1% (1984-1998),
14 10,4% (1986-1999).
, ''
'70,
, 100%
1980 , 85% '80 '90
15% , 2003-2007.
.
, 100% ,
,
(,
).
, ,
, ,
, ( 2009)
' ,
.
,
3,5 , 1970 ,
1990 1995, , . ,
, ''
, ( '
' 1990)
80 .
, ,
, . , , ,
' ,
' '
. ' '
, .
, , (2003),
112 , '
.'
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
35/116
35
, ,
(
)
' .
,
,
, ,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
36/116
36
06-05-2010
.. : )
(
) ) (
, , ), )
.
, ,
,
,
.
,
(
,
, ,
, , , ).
& ,
.
90 (
), ,
.
, 500 .
, ,
. , ,
.
, 100 1 5%
, 105 (5
) ,
, ,
. , , ,
99 ,
6%.
,
90 15%.
, ,
, 5% .
, , , , , 15%, ,
(
).
,
:
, ,
. (
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
37/116
37
, ).
/ .
,
/,
(
, , , ). ,
.
, ,
.
.
.
, , 2008
,
2010 2009,
BlackRock, 2,5% 4,5%.
,
2 3 2,5%
10 20.
,
, , , 2008,
. , BlackRock
, .
,
,
.
,
. .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
38/116
38
07-05-2010
: ; (02/04/09),
1790 ,
)
, ,
, , )
,
)
, .
1790 , , 200
4 : , ( )
,
, , ,
,
( )
.
,
(
) . , ,
, (, , )
,
, , 400 . 400 2600 .
, , Strauss-Kahn, ,
G20 , 2 2009,
, , (SDR),
,
. , , 80 , G20 (20
), 1 ,
250 ( )
. , , ,
,
,
.
Strauss-Kahn :
.
, , G20 ) ) )
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
39/116
39
.
.
,
, . 1765
1821 ,
, .
, .
30 2008, , ,
18 2010
,
, .
.
07 2009 ,
60 .
30 2010 26
38 . , ,
, ,
. , , , , ,
junk S&P. , ,
, . ,
2009 90% , , 1
, .
, , , ( , ,
),
. ,
.
, ,
, ,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
40/116
40
08-05-2010
: ; (02/04/09),
1790 ,
)
, ,
, , )
,
)
, .
1790 , , 200
4 : , ( )
,
, ,
,
,
( )
.
,
(
) .
, ,
, (, , )
,
, , 400 . 400 2600 .
, , Strauss-Kahn, ,
G20 , 2 2009,
, , (SDR),
,
.
, , 80 , G20 (20
), 1 ,
250 ( )
. , , ,
,
,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
41/116
41
Strauss-Kahn :
.
, , G20 ) )
)
.
.
,
, .
1765
1821 ,
, .
, .
30 2008, , ,
18 2010
,
,
.
.
07 2009 , 60 .
30 2010 26
38 . , ,
, ,
. ,
, , , ,
junk S&P. , ,
, . ,
2009 90% , , 1
, .
, , , ( , ,
),
. ,
.
, ,
, ,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
42/116
42
01-06-2010
: Rothschild
50%, , , , ,
,
, , S&P 500, 90.
Neuberger Berman
, 1,7
( ) .
Lehman Brothers,
Goldman Sacks George Bush.
, , Rothschild,
.
, Nathaniel Rothschild, 2010
Les Echos ( )
. ( ) ,
, : ( ).
, .
Nathaniel Rothschild ,
.
200
'' . 3
1923 Chicago Evening American : Rothschilds
. . New York Evening
Post 22 1924 ' : Rothschild
. Rothschild
. 8 1937, New York Times :
Rothschilds .
,
Rothschild, 2001
5 .
10 40 .
Rothschild ,
, , Barick Gold, Gold Fields, De Beers, Rio
Tinto . Rothschilds
spot '
1919 2004 Barclays,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
43/116
43
Rothschild
. Rothschild
1821, Rothschild
, ,
, / ,
, .
, , , ,
.
,
( Neuberger Berman)
.
N.M. Rothschild & Sons
, Cosmote, , , ,
, Eurobank .
, Neuberger Berman
2009, Rothschild, . , ,
.
13 2010
Paul Volcker,
, .
Paul Volcker, FED Alan Greenspan 1987,
J. Rothschild, Wolfensohn & Co, Rothschild.
03 2010 George Soros, Paulson, Cohen Einhorn
.
Soros, Madeleine Albright Jacob
Rothschild, ,
. Rothschild 200 ,
. Rothschild
. Soros Rothschild
Soros
Rothschild . ( Soros, ). Soros Quantum Fund.
Richard Katz Rothschild Italia S.p.A.
N.M. Rothschild & Sons .
John Paulson,
. 50
Nathaniel Rothschild Rusal,
.
Steven Cohen . 27 . Atticus Capital
Rothschild, Sothebys (
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
44/116
44
) 6,2% ,
Rothschild 5,4%. 700% Rothschild
Cohen.
, , ' '
Rothschild. .
,
,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
45/116
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
46/116
46
). Fitch,
- ,
. ,
,
CDS,
.
Goldman ,
( Financial Times Der Spiegel ).
. CDS.
Goldman .
/
, , ALPHA, Eurobank
, CDS ,
.
12 Fitch
BBB+ ,
Fitch .
, S&P Moodys,
.
, 2010, BBB- Fitch,
, ,
.
Neuberger Berman Goldman - XA CDS
2009 Neuberger Berman,
( Rothschild), 1,7 31 . 2009 1 2010, Goldman,
CDS (
).
CDS 75% ,
2009 2010, 6
Goldman Sacks.
2 Goldman
Black Rock
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
47/116
47
Goldman Black Rock, Blackstone,
14 2008 Lord Nathaniel Charles Jacob Rothschild
Randall Rothschild.
3,5
9 , , ( )
.
Black Rock 2
, , EFG Eurobank Ergasias .
, , Moodys S&P. ,
Richard H. Jenrette, Blackstone (
Black Rock) The McGraw-Hill Companies, Standard &
Poor's.
, Black Rock :
- - Goldman Sachs
- Moodys S&P
Norges Bank Investment
,
41
, Alpha, EFG Eurobank Ergasias, .
La Compagnie Benjamin De Rothschild S.A.
Norges , , ,
. , ,
.
Norges Bank Investment :
-
- Goldman
- Fitch.
Fidelity
H Fidelity ( ) Moodys. Bill Rothschild senior vice president
Fidelity.
&
1 2 Goldman
3 ,
Rothschild. , Moodys, Fidelity,
Rothschild.
Goldman, Black Rock, Norges Rothschild
, ,
CDS . , ,
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
48/116
48
.
, Goldman ,
Goldman ,
,
. , ,
/
, .
Goldman
, , ,
,
, ,
,
Goldman .
,
. , 2010
,
.
Goldman Paulson ( 4
, )
,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
49/116
49
10-06-2010
: .. , ,
,
. ,
,
.
, ,
,
,
,
, , .
.
Moodys, Fitch
S&P, . Thomas Friedman, 1996
: , .
Moodys.
Moodys
. , , .
.
.
, , :
, .
, ,
, , ,
, ,
. ,
, ,
.
,
, ,
, ,
,
.
, Moodys ,
. , Moodys Hannover Re,
. Moodys
. Hannover Re Moodys , Moodys junk,
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
50/116
50
, Hannover Re 175
.
2007 , Moodys
Wall Street Goldman Sachs
, , ,
. Moodys, ,
.
.
Moodys
Fitch S&P ,
2008,
.
Moody s Mark Froeba,
1997, , 2007,
.
Lawrence McDonald, Lehman Brothers ,
:
junk ()
;
, ,
, Goldman
,
1
.
, ,
, .
Paulson Soros,
.
9 2010, Moodys ,
,
, . Moodys
.
.
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
51/116
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
52/116
52
15-06-2010
, , H
.
,
junk (''
),
.
, .
, ,
Thomas Friedman ,
Moody, , ,
.
, ,
. S&P
() ::
S&P:
.
: ;. ;
S&P: .
; .
. .
, S&P
. ,
.
, ,
.
, .
S&P:
: ;
S&P: , ,
. .
, , .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
53/116
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
54/116
54
15-06-2010
Moodys: ... Ba1 Moody's
( , )
1,14% 2007 10,64% 2010
. Fannie Mae FreddieMac ,
.
, , , , , ,
, ,
.
, , , .
Bloomberg, 8,5 .
(7,4% ) 141 .
, , ,
, 119.982 ,
59.909 . ,
, 58
, ,
, ( retire and rehire.
( ) 100 ,
80
, ( ,
, Greenspan,)
.
(Soros, Einhorn .)
,
. David Einhorn, ,
Greenlight,
: : ,
,
, ,
, , .
,
, , ,
,
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
55/116
55
,
.
,
, , , , ,
, Moodys
14 4 , 3 1 (junk),
/.
, (
) , ,
,
,
.
, , ,
, ,
( ),
.
, , , ,
, , ,
. 2006 , , .
, , status quo
,
.
,
status quo
Einhorn.
, , Moodys, S&P Fitch
, .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
56/116
56
16-06-2010
&
.
2009 ,
, ,
.
,
.
, CDS
, , , 2009,
, , .
' ' ,
,
,
.
, , , ,
. , ,
.
,
( )
.
/ ,
. spreads
. ,
, spreads
.
, spreads
.
, , . , ,
.
, , Moody's, , CDS
,
, .
,
,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
57/116
57
22-06-2010
& ( ,
) 60, Societe Generale
. , ,
2003 11
, , .
12
,
, .
2003 , ,
... . 21/05/03, ,
1990.
, ,
,
,
.
31 2009
, 2000 70', . , ,
, , ,
,
.
, 2000
. 90'
, ,
, . ,
.
.
25 2009 : ...
: ,
, ,
. ,
.
. .
( , , , ) .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
58/116
58
( ) ,
. ,
, .
, , , ,
' . , ,
,
.
, .
, .
, 10 ,
1 . .
. ,
. ()
() . , , ,
. ,
.
. , ,
.
, , . ,
. ,
. ,
.
, .
.
, , , ,
(
), ( )
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
59/116
59
24-06-2010
1997
, , ,
, , ,
,
, .
, ( ),
,
, , ,
,
,
(
, ).
, , , , ,
,
, .
,
,
.
,
, ,
, ,
, , . ,, ,
,
,
, , (
),
.
(), ,
, (), ,
( ). ,
2000,
,
.
,
, ,
,
,
, , 2009,
,
, .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
60/116
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
61/116
61
30-06-2010
, ,
. ,
, , , ,
, , .
.
8% 2010,
.
, ,
, , . , ,
.
, , , 80%
, , 13 . ,
,
100 , 100% .
,
.
, , ,
..
.
,
.
, , ,
(, , ),
14 .
, , 5,5%, 4%, ,
10% (
13%), 8%.
20 ,
142% 2010.
,
30 .
, 2014,
10 .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
62/116
62
,
, ,
. ,
, ,
.
, , ,
,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
63/116
63
07-07-2010
Icesave 2008,
, , ,
, : ;
,
, , ,
.
Icesave, 5 ,
. 1,5 ,
,
.
,
/
, . ,
1998, 1997,
,
.
2003.
, ,
,
/
, , , . , ,
.
/
,
,
. ,
Harvard , ,
,
.
- &
, 319
( , ). , 294
8,6 . 240 ,
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
64/116
64
55 , 47 30 ,
40 ( Morgan Stanley).
, , hedge funds
(
) .
,
, , ,
.
,
, 1982,
,
. ,
, ,
.
, , , .
(CDS)
85 ,
,
, ,
, , , .
-
. 2% ,
. .
1 2000, ,
, 98%, ,
. ,
,
.
.
,
, ,
,
, de facto , , ,
.
, ,
.
, 90% . 25 ,
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
65/116
65
, , , .
, , ,
.
.
,
, 51%, 66% 75%.
,
90% ,
, , 2004
75% 66% .
90% , .
/
,
, .
90% .
,
.
,
( ),
, 25 .
90%
, 25 ,
, , , (SDR),
, , ,
.
:
( 30 )
( )
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
66/116
66
( 80 )
, ,
. , ,
, . ,
, ,
,
.
.. -
,
.
, , ,
25 .
90% (
) .
.
, ,
. , ,
.
, , ,
,
,
,
.
, , , ,
, , , , , 2
, .
, ,
, ,
, FED ( ) ( )
:
) ( )
)
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
67/116
67
,
.
,
.
,
, , ,
.
&
, ,
. 90%
, ,
,
,
, , , ,
.
. ,
,
,
(
).
Harvard
Harvard , , , ,
,
, .
, , .
75% ,
,
, , ,
.
. , ,
, , ,
.
, ,
.
) )
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
68/116
68
.
,
100%, ,
.
, , 319 , 296 .
, 110 , , , .
, ,
, 319 . , , ,
,
,
.
, , ,
, 25 . , ,
.
, , , .
2-3 ,
,
,
, .
,
,
.
, , ,
,
.
, , ,
.
, ,
.
, , ,
,
. ,
, ,
,
, .
, , , ,
, ,
.
,
CDS, ,
,
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
69/116
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
70/116
70
09-07-2010
, Siemens, Vodafone & Shell 2009
. Josef Ackerman Deutsche Bank,
.
Josef Ackermann Deutsche Bank,
, .
, ,
.
, , Ackermann Siemens 2003,
, , ,
. Siemens
,
. Ackermann
, ,
.
, , , Ackermann
Vodafone, ,
Rothschild, Royal Dutch Shell
Zurich Financial Services, , ,
.
Ackermann
,
, Deutsche Bank Siemens.
, , Ackermann Angela Merkel,
,
. , Merkel
60 Ackermann , , ,
, . Josef Ackerman
Angela Merkel 30 60
,
.
Ackerman ,
, , .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
71/116
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
72/116
72
. , .
.
(
),
.
. ,
. :
, .
,
,
, , ,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
73/116
73
10-08-2010
- & & ;
,
(CERP-cerp.net) 2010.
CERP Robert Solow Joseph Stiglitz .
.
. ,
.
, :
.
(
). 2000
2004 4,5% . (
43% 2000 38% 2004
11,6%, 39% 41%).
, ( 44% ), . 2007
, . ,
Goldman
,
.
2009 2010,
110 ,
2010 2014.
11,1% , 5,3%
5,3% . 5%
, , ,
16% . ,
(
). , ,
8,6% 2009 1% 2011
.
, .
4% 2010
2,6% 2011. 2012
1,1% ( ). 2012
0,94%.
http://cerp.net/http://cerp.net/http://cerp.net/http://cerp.net/
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
74/116
74
2015
2008.
, ,
. ,
1,1% 2012
2,4% .
. , 6%
2015. 9,4% 2009 14% 2013/2014.
, ,
. ,
. (
) (), ,
145% 2014 2009 115% .
2014
, 2020 120% ,
99% 2008.
6%,
3,1% 2013 5,9%
. ,
.
, , 6% ( ) 3%; ,
2020 140% .
, 2014, 110
, 40% . ,
. 145%
. (
, , .)
.
, , :
:
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
75/116
75
. ,
, .
40 110 ,
.
:
, , ; ;
,
. ,
.
80%
,
. , ,
200
. , 25%
( ) .
City .
80%
,
. , ,
200 . , 25%
( ) .
City .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
76/116
76
11-08-2010
(1) CNN, Reuters, BBC Yahoo ,
, .
CNN
BBC , , ,
Al Jazeera.
,
, ,
.
,
(),
, ,
.
2010, Greek,
Terence Spencer, (Fair Greece, Sad Relic- Literary
Philhellenism
from Shakespeare to Byron, Athens,1954 , P.37)
Greek 16 , , , , .
,
,
, .
,
.
.
,
, , .
, ,
,
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
77/116
77
,
.
2009,
, .
,
.
'.
, , , ,
.
' 1999,
,
.
,
.
, , ,
, , ,
2009.
,
,
. ,
.
:
.
.
,
.
,
2009.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
78/116
78
,
. , , ,
.
, , ,
,
, .
,
, ,
, ,
.
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
79/116
79
12-08-2010
():
. ,
.
, ,
.
,
,
.
,
.
, ,
, .
.
,
.
2009,
. , ,
.
.
. , ,
.
(
),
. .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
80/116
80
, ,
.
, ,
.
,
.
,
,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
81/116
81
19-08-2010
Corp: google, , 2009
2010 Greece 400%
5 ,
, , , .
,
, .
, ,
,
Goldman,
,
,
, .
, ,
, , .
2009,
, ,
, , .
2010
:
;
, google 30 , 3000 .
,
,
,
,
, , , FED .
, ,
, ,
,
, 600 .
, google, ,
, , ,
7 .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
82/116
82
,
, , ,
20 .
, 1960.
,
18 .
, ,
,
,
.
, ,
, Corp
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
83/116
83
15-10-10
, ,
, , , ,
2011 2011.
, , , ,
,
, ,
, .
, ,
,
(
, ),
,
, , 40 .
, ,
50
,
.
,
12% 8,5% 2009, .
2009, (+43,2%) 181.784 , 602.185. ,
5.206 (+0,9%).
.
12%, , 6
, , , , , , ,
, .
6 ( 50 ) , 8
.
, CDS,
( )
, ,
. , CDS, 2 ,
5 50%.
10 ( ) , ,
; ,
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
84/116
84
(
).
, , 2 , ,
, , , , , ,
. , , , ,
10 3,44%, 3,89% (;) 5,64%,
10,15%.
: ,
12 ;
, , ,
, ;
, ,
. , ,
, , ,
, , , , ;
,
.
, , ,
,
.
, ,
, ,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
85/116
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
86/116
86
, 10 2,39%, 3
, , 15 .
.
4,00% 2,58%, 20 .
, ,
, .
, , 9% 2010,
, .
.
,
, ,
, , , 20
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
87/116
87
31-08-2010
Harvard,
, .
, , ,
.
,
,
,
.
,
90% ( 90% )
.
,
,
de facto ,
, , ,
. ,
, ,
,
,
, , , .
&
. ,,
.
-
- , ,
. ,
, ,
. ,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
88/116
88
, ,,
.
,
.
, .
, , ,
.
( 80 )
.. ( ) .
,
.
()
,
. ,
,
, ,
,
, .
2 , ,
, .
,
,
, . ,
, ,
.
, ,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
89/116
89
2020
,
, 2020
2008
. ,
, 2015.
;
.
.
, , , . ,
, .
, ,
.
.
.
.
2011. ,
2010 ,
,
,
53%,
.
.
, .
13% 13% .
, , , 3%.
.
, , , ,
.
& /
20 .
8-10% . ,
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
90/116
90
,
,
, ,
.
.
)
, , ,
;
)
, .
)
,
.
)
.
.
;
)
, , .
;
, , .
)
;
) , ;
)
2011 ;
;
)
.
;
)
, , 20 ;
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
91/116
91
5 100
.
)
, ;
)
10 50 ;
.
.
. , , ,
.
,
de facto
. .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
92/116
92
16-10-2010
, ..
,
, .
/ /
. , , ,
, , .
.
,
.
,
4 40
, , , .
,
, .
.
, ,
,
, , ,
. ,
, . .
,
/ /
, , ( , , ,
/ , , )
/
, CIA.
,
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
93/116
93
, ,
,
.
,
, ,
, , .
2000
2002 2006,
.
,
.
,
90,
, .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
94/116
94
21-10-2010
2007
,
.
2010
, , , ,
70
/ .
, ,
,
, , , , ,
, , ,
, .
, ,
,
,
.
2006
,
, 2008 ,
( ),
.
,
.
.
,
.
, 6 ,
,
, ,
, .
:
( FED),
, .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
95/116
95
, 6%
12% ,
.
, , ,
,
. ,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
96/116
96
22-10-2010
1981-2020:
.
(: pool - ).
. ,
.
,
.
,
.
,
80 , .
,
.
, ,
2003, ,
.
1920,
,
, . 1922
,
20 6,5% , , , .
1929
.
, 1981, ,
2000 . , ,
80,
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
97/116
97
,
,
, 100%
, 34,5% 1981,
80 19% ( 25% 1985),
.
80 , , ,
. ,,
1991 12%
,
.
,
,
.
19,8% 4,07%
11,5% 3,64%.
.
1996
90 .
90 20
, ,
,
. ,
100% .
,
, ,
.
, 2000
2003
.
2003 2007 , ,
2007
. ,
, 2003,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
98/116
98
1 2007
, :
,
. 3156/2003.
,
, .
.
,
.
.
, ,
2008,
,
Alpha, Marfin Eurobank, , , . ,
, 2010
15 , 3 .
,
,
, ,
. 5
, , , ,
, , , , , .
,
,
. , ,
(
),
,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
99/116
99
, , .
(
),
.
,
.
,
, , .
.
:
) (80-90%) , , ,
.
) 90%
,
.
) 100%
100% .
,
( , ,
),
...,
:
) ,
.
) ,
.
)
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
100/116
100
)
,
.
,
,
, ,
2010 ,
CERP ( )
, , 2020.
,
,
, ,
, .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
101/116
101
27-10-2010
5
10
, 0,55%. ,
, .
, ,
.
,
, 9,50%
0,55%.
(FED),
, ,
. 1,7
, FED
1 2 ( Bank
of America-Merrill Lynch Global Research Goldman Sachs) ,
.
FED .
,
.
110 , 3 euribor (
).
euribor 3,00% 0,5% .
euribor
.
09 2010, euribor 0,682%,
.
( FED 0-0,25% 1%) euribor .
, ,
,
2,00% 1,00% . ,
1,60% 1,80% , euribor 0,682%
1,037% 15 .
FED
.
,
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
102/116
102
50%
.
, 2003-2007. , ,
euribor 2%,
. 4,20% 2010 5,5%. , , , ,
euribor
.
FED euribor 2%
2003 3,00% 2006, 4,00% 2007 5% 2008.
euribor 2,50% 3,00% 2,5 .
, , 2,5
.
+4,00% , ,
euribor +3,00% ( 2013).
euribor 2,00% 2013,
6,00% .
6% ,
.
+3,00%
+4,00% euribor ,
,
.
,
,
,
.
, ,
,
2020 2025.
. ,
, ,
.
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
103/116
103
29-10-2010
;
109 1980 1986, 326
430 .
, 322 , 658
, 1986 882 ,
.
Libor ,
.
1,4 1990 2,5 2000,
.
142,7%
2010 111% 2010, 2013 150% (
euribor
)
.
, ,
, . , ,
. ,
80%
,
, , ,
.
: )
, )
, )
)
.
,
17% 46%
, 60% .
,
50%
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
104/116
104
( , , , )
,
.
2014-2015. : .
,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
105/116
105
2009 2010
,
. 10
( 10 ) 6,00% 2010
4,41% 2009 ,
, 12% , 2010.
10 6,00%,
.
6,00% 10
6,00% 3,23%,
4,55%.
4,55%
. ,
,
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
106/116
106
. ,
10 6,00%,
. ,
10 2010
10 6,00% 2009
6,00% 2009 , 4,40%.
10
: 2008
2009 2009 2010. :
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
107/116
107
) , ( )
)
.
) 4,5%
6,00%
2008 2009 2009
2010 10
. , ,
, spread 10
.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
108/116
108
, , , CDS,
.
, , ,
75 89 2008 2009 74 88 2009 2010,
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
109/116
109
. , ,
, 75 .
, ,
.
: 10 .
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
110/116
110
10 (
) .
:
2008 .
, , )
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
111/116
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
112/116
112
.
, ,
, .
10, 5 2
3,
,
. ,
.
,
.
, ,
2011.
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
113/116
113
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
114/116
114
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
115/116
115
-
8/7/2019 47946541-ebook-Krisi2010gr
116/116
Copyright:
e-
Greek Society of Technical Analysis Ltd
( )
www.sta-gr.comwww-ekta1.gr
[email protected]
http://www.sta-gr.com/http://www.sta-gr.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.sta-gr.com/
