55èmeème Forum Industrie & Académie Forum Industrie & Académie29 et 30 novembre 2012 – Palaiseau, ENSTA ParisTech

IS : la vision AFIS pour les années 2020-

2025Michel Galinier, DT AFIS

Version 1.0

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ENSTA ParisTech - Arts et Métiers ParisTech - ENSTA Bretagne

Livre Blanc AFIS:Ingénierie Système: La Vision AFIS pour les années 2020- 2025

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White Paper FrameworkWhite Paper Framework

BREAKTHROUGHSBREAKTHROUGHS

EXTRAPOLATIONSEXTRAPOLATIONS

System EngineeringSystem Engineering

Vision 2020Vision 2020AFISAFIS

2010… 2010… Where do Where do we start we start from ?from ?

External External driversdrivers

Needs &Needs & expectationsexpectations

Catherine Devic, EDFDominique Luzeaux, DGAJean-Claude Roussel, EADS Innovation WorksAlain Faisandier, MAP SystemsGérard Morel, University of Nancy Lorraine Pierre de Chazelles, AirbusMichel Galinier, AFISAlain Roussel, CSRoland Mazzella, ThalesJean-Luc Garnier, ThalesMarc Peyrichon, DCNS

Alain Léger, ThalèsAlain Kerbrat, CollESysClaude Pourcel, AFISEric Bonjour, University of Franche-ComtéGauthier Fanmuy, ADNGérard Auvray, EADS AstriumJean-Pierre Meinadier, AFISMarion Wolff, ESTIAPascal Gendre, EADS AirbusRégis Mollard, LATI

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Value of Systems Engineering*Value of Systems Engineering*

*SE-ROI Research Project, Interim Results Aug 2009 Eric Honour

Cost overrun and Schedule overrun lessens with increasing Systems Engineering Effort (SEE). Overrun appears to minimize at something greater than 10% SEEVariance in the cost and schedule overrun also lessens with increasing SEE: at low SEE, a project has difficulty predicting its overrun

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PART 1 :PART 1 :2010… WHERE DO WHE 2010… WHERE DO WHE START FROM? START FROM?

Contents SE Workforce in FranceSE Processes SE Methodologies Human Ressource at the core of SEModeling & Architecture Frameworks SE Tools: a small market

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Systems Engineering WorkforceSystems Engineering Workforce (France vision)(France vision)

Systems engineering manpower: 3% to 5% of the global manpower in major companies

A need for 3000 new SE engineers for the next 5 years in France (2009 System@tic survey)

A discipline recently addressed by universities: about 100 new SE engineers per year

SE research not yet recognized as such: strong need for industry/academia cooperation

System@tic survey identify a need of 12000 new systems engineers for the next 5 years in France

including Information Systems. Hypothesis: 25% are devoted to Systems Engineering only

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SE Tools : a small market SE Tools : a small market … compared to CAD … compared to CAD

* IBM Rational (Doors, System Architect, Rhapsody,…) revenues restricted to SE market (estimated to 20%)

Less and less SE tools providers– IBM leadership (3 of the 6 SysML

Partners tools come from IBM)– Prohibitive cost for SMEs

SE business market size not significant … but significant amount of money is spent by big companies to develop their own SE tools suite– Annual investment > 10 millions € / year

Efficient workbenches are mandatory for complex systems engineering

Lack of efficient standards for data exchange between tools and interface management

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PART 2 :PART 2 :EXTERNAL DRIVERS EXTERNAL DRIVERS FOR CHANGEFOR CHANGE

ContentFocusing on core businessBusiness globalisationNever Ending technological evolution Innovate or die…Clean, cost-effective, sustainable processesSocial Networks… a major cultural changeSkills shortageThree generations in the workplaceA new age for Universities

SocietalAnd

Culturalchanges

Economical constraints

Technological change

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Companies focus on core businessCompanies focus on core business Create value

– Development / delivery of services vs products– Take into account (anticipate) the customer comfort and expectations

Divestment on non core activities used to reinforce key technologies

Federating long term partners– Establishing strong partnerships with companies including the sharing of

programme risks (Risk Sharing Partner concept) is an industrial challenge

System Design (product, services, capabilities) through life cycle cost is the business challenge

Responsibility in terms of reliability / safety Need to be at the leading edge on key technologies

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Skills shortage expected for 2015-2020Skills shortage expected for 2015-2020 (France Vision)(France Vision)

Baby boomers massively retiring Lack of young engineers

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X1000

People leaving to the retirementBeginners

Centre d’Analyse Stratégique, Qualifications et métiers de demain, Novembre 2009

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PART 3 – Enterprise needsPART 3 – Enterprise needs

ContentDevelop Effective SystemsOrganize the EnterpriseDevelop Innovative ServicesInterconnect SystemsSimplify … KISS to the extremeDevelop Heterogeneous and Flexible SystemsDevelop Ultra Scalable Autonomous SystemsIncrease the Confidence in Complex SystemsModel and Simulate globally the SystemIntegrate Human FactorCapitalize, Find and Reuse Information Manage Obsolescence and new Technologies

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The KISS principle : a universal The KISS principle : a universal and interdisciplinary challengeand interdisciplinary challenge

Product /system complexity

Product /system variants

Development time

Work distribution& organization

Architecture

Behavior

Variants

Multiple skills

Organization

Pro

du

ct

/ S

yste

mP

rocess

Dimensions of complexity

• Reduce the competency demand, e.g. modular architecture design

• Deal with uncertainty, e.g. resilience engineering

• Design for maintainability

• Reduce interactive complexity design

• Reference architectures and design rules to simplify

interactions and to reduce non-determinism,

• Provable isolation mechanisms in time and space

• Verifiable and safe sharing of services and controls

• Design for reuse

FunctionnalityUser requirements

• What are the real needs ? Will the system be understood and

useable ?

Keep It Simple & Smart

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Integrate the Human FactorIntegrate the Human Factor The Human Factor as a part of the solution Optimize the human-machine coupling Adequate Methods& tools for HF modeling

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PART 4: EXTRAPOLATIONSPART 4: EXTRAPOLATIONS

Content

Agile and Lean processesSE for small projects and SMEs

Efficient Collaborative Engineering

Model based System Engineering

Service Oriented Architectures

The Operator’s Mindmap in System Analysis

New Management Schemes

Certified SE Training, supported by ResearchKnowledge& Skill of

Workforce

Concepts and Processes

Tools &Methodology

Capab

ility

Capab

ility

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Agile&Lean designAgile&Lean design Co-creative process

User experience oriented engineering

Multiple skills involved

Partnership agreement with sub-contractors

« science push » + « market pull »

Lean design, engineering and manufacturing

6 Principles1. Customer defines value 2. Map the value stream3. Make value flow continuously 4. Let customers pull value5. Pursue perfection6. Respect people

All along the product life cycle Lean maturity model Dependability approaches in system

design

Be Agile Think Lean

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Towards Model Based SETowards Model Based SE Document centric model centric

All along the product life-cycle

Domain Specific Languages

Multi-domains modeling & simulation

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Certified SE trainingCertified SE training– System Engineering Education :

• Pre-recruitment• Agreements Universities-Industry on SE training, SE Certification and SE

curriculum • Individual certification• For instance: GRCSE Graduate Reference Curriculum in Systems Engineering

under development by INCOSE

– A way of recognition and a mobility asset • SE as a bridge between Technical and Non Technical disciplines; seen more

and more as a key factor for wider job opportunities

– SE Company Certification : • Manage competitiveness and get new markets

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PART 5: MAJOR PART 5: MAJOR BREAKTHROUGHSBREAKTHROUGHS

Content

Domain specific approachRisk sharing between business partnersFormalizing human-system interactionsDesign Patterns to master system complexityLarge scale Virtual Prototyping Economic and social innovationNew tool vendors for SE toolsets

Tools

SkillsFormation

SEProcess

Design of appropriate

tools

Conducting integrated

design

The system design

Industrial organization

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Domain specific approachDomain specific approach

Based on system thinking and generic SE approach Strong links with the core business

– Engineers will develop airplanes, nuclear plants, air traffic management systems,…with domain oriented objects, vocabulary,… but based on a system vision and approach (in order to better consider interfaces, operational scenarios, safety, evolution, self-healing, etc.)

SE as a generic discipline could be complemented with domain specific approaches

This combination could be the source of drastic improvements in terms of reuse, cost and delay improvements

The generic SE discipline could be developed in an associative manner

Good system engineers must have strong domain knowledge!… Good engineers must have strong experience in system engineering !

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Putting Design patterns to good use Putting Design patterns to good use to master system complexityto master system complexity

Systems designers can master complexity using hierarchical design approaches

Need to perform design activities at every level of abstraction Use of validated design patterns

– At high level of abstraction– Capitalise solutions on problems yet solved , data, and corporate knowledge– Fitting domains business– Design systems more quickly and more efficiently

… but need to understand the limits and weaknesses of design patterns

18 months….. 7 years

8000 exigences

Ingénierie du besoin : 5 ans

150 exigences

Ingénierie du besoin : 1 semaine

SE an Art and a ScienceSE an Art and a Science Sharing a visionSharing a vision… … and working together and working together to to make it a make it a reality ! reality !

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Next stepsNext stepsBuilding a new AFIS Strategic Plan for 2013-2018

Building the SE Education & Research White Book

AFIS

2013-2018 Strategic Plan Updating

2007- 2011 Strategic Plan

…

White Book

2013- 2018 Strategic Plan

Steering Board WG Leaders

2007-2011 SP

Assessment

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Informations pratiquesInformations pratiquesAccès au livre

– Version électronique sur site AFIS (www.afis.fr)• Section Livre Blanc (avec login adhérent)

– Version papier: requête à afis@afis.fr

Commentaires/suggestions/propositions à• mic.galinier@free.fr