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5 - 21 1944 年東南海地震の前兆現象 Precursors to the Tonankai Earthquake 日本大学文理学部 東大地震研究所 静岡県地震対策課 College of Humanities and Sciences, Nihon University Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo Earthquake Preparedness Division, Shizuoka Prefectural Government 予想される東海地震に対応するために,安政東海地震 1) にひきつづいて,東南海地震( M = 7.9,1944)の前兆現象を調べた。本調査は, ⑴ 予備的調査による前兆事例 ⑵ 気象庁地震データによる前震の調査 ⑶ 文献調査による前兆事例 ⑷ 往復葉書通信調査による前兆事例 ⑸ 静岡県アンケート調査による前兆事例 よりなる。 1.予備的調査による前兆事例 これは安政東海地震の調査に関連して得られたもので,第 1 表のような事例が得られている。 2.気象庁地震データによる前震の調査 気象庁観測部地震課による全国有感・無感地震回数表によれば,御前崎,三島,石廊崎,網 代,岐阜,浜松,潮岬,名古屋,尾鷲,津及び静岡の各気象官署では尾鷲を除いて前震らしい 地震活動はない。尾鷲では 1944 年 8 月に S - P 時間が 2 ~ 3 秒の無感地震活動が発生している。第 1,2 及び 3 図には潮岬,尾鷲及び津における月別地震回数を示すが,潮岬及び津にはこれに 対応する地震活動は存在しない。第 2 表は気象庁データによる前兆事例である。 3.文献調査による前兆事例 約 80 編の文献より前兆事例を抽出した。その事例を地殻変動,鳴動( 音 ),地震,動物異常 行動,発光現象及び地下水・温泉の各区分について第 3,4,5,6,7 及び 8 表に示す。異常気 象の報告は省略する。なお文献調査( 予備調査を含む )による前兆事例の一覧を第 9 表に示す。 第 4 図はこれらの前兆の出現地点を示した図で,図中の数字 1,2,3,4,5,6 及び 8 はそれぞ ―287―

5 - 21 1944 年東南海地震の前兆現象 - GSI5-21 1944年東南海地震の前兆現象 Precursors to the Tonankai Earthquake 日本大学文理学部 東大地震研究所

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5 21 1944
1 M
7.91944

1944 8 S P 2 3
12 3
2
80
34567 8
9
4 123456 8
287

5 6 3
34
2,000 130
1,870 610 30

16
7 7 9

……etc

14

6
346
66




1
20

etc.
20


21
289
12 log10T 0 1
log10T 1 0
1
9 log10T 3 4
log10T 3 2


22
23 2 3

14
160 170km



452
66

2
60

8


M 6 7
2 10
3
4 100




277 291.
292
Table 1 Precursors to the Tonankai earthquake obtained by the preliminary investigation.
1
2 Table 2 Foreshocks observed at Owase as reported by the Japan Meteorological Agency.
3 Table 3 Crustal movement precursors.
293
3
4 Table 4 Rumbling sound precursors.
294
295
7 Table 7 Earthquake light precursors.
8 Table 8 Underground water & hot spring precursors.
9 Table 9 Summary of precursors to the Tonankai earthquake obtained by the literature examination including
the preliminary examination.
296
10 Table 10 Crustal movement precursors.
11 Table 11 Rumbling sound precursors.
297
299
13
14 Table 14 Earthquake light precursors.
300
14
15 Table 15 Underground water & hot spring precursors.
301
16 Table 16 Anomalous sea phenomenon precursors
17 Table 17 Summary of precursors obtained by the post card enquiry.
18 Table 18 The summary of enquiry survey related to the Tonankai earthquake carried out in Shizuoka
Prefecture.
302
18
19 Table 19 Summary of precursors obtained by the enquiry survey in Shizuoka Prefecture.
303
Table 20 Summary of precursors for all the data taken by the present investigation.
21 log10T Table 21 Frequency distribution of log10T.
Table 22 Mean precursor time E [s] and its standard deviation.
23 Table 23 Mean precursor times of geophysical precursor
for a number of earthquakes.
24 Table 24 Mean precursor times of anomalous animal behaviour
for a number of earthquakes.
22 E sσ
20
304
25 Table 25 Supplementary data of the precursors to the Ansei Tokai earthquake.
1 Fig. 1 Monthly number of unfelt earthquakes at Shionomisaki.
305
2 Fig. 2 Monthly number of unfelt earthquakes at Owase.
3 Fig. 3 Monthly number of unfelt earthquakes at Tsu.
306
Fig. 4 Places where a precursor is observed as revealed by the literature examination. Numerals indicate the disciplines of precursor:1, earthquake;2, crustal movement;3, rumbling sound;4, anomalous animal behaviour;5, underground water & hot spring;6, anomalous weather;8, earthquake light.
5 Fig. 5 Return post card for the enquiry.
4
307
6 Fig. 6 Reverse side of the post card shown in Fig. 5.
7
Fig. 7 Places where a precursor is observed as revealed by the post card enquiry. The numerals indicate the discipline of precursor the same as the caption of Fig. 4. Numbers 7 and 9 indicate supernatural power and anomalous sea phenomenon, respectively.
308
8 log10T Fig. 8 Histogram of logl0T with the 0.5 interval for all the precursor data.
9 log10T 1.0 Fig. 9 Histogram of log10T with the 1.0 interval for all the data.
309
10 log10T 1.0 Fig. 10 Histogram for the animal data.
11 log10T 1.0
Fig. 11 Histogram for the earthquake light data.
310
Fig. 12 Histogram for the geophysical data. The shaded columns indicate the data for rumbling sound.
13
Fig. 13 Histogram of epicentral distance for all the data which include the ones for which the precursor time cannot be identified. The data for anomalous weather and supernatural power are excluded.
12 log10T 1.0
311
14
Fig. 14 Histogram of epicentral distance for the data for which the precursor time is identified,
15
Fig. 15 The ratio of the data for which the precursor time is identified to those for which the precursor time cannot be identified as given in a form of histogram of epicentral distance.
312
16 T
Fig. 16 Histogram of log10T for the Ansei Tokai earthquake. Shaded columns indicate the data for rumbling and earthquake.
17 Fig. 17 Places where a precursor to the Ansei Tokai earthquake is observed.
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