123

104610121

123451002003004005001123420 30 25 252123440 50 80 30

m3m3

1649121013211301980415833142

4656950110971960398793166

50431036311342087462855236

53561092211552212501895192

56441143911472182521909253

53461114011012074515808227

404281049231980481788143

471998879801911453822214

51341065810672119524895396

174470921010752003457871141

4397914710462031495893134

50101031711092222543944195

49121013211301980415833142

4656950110971960398793166

50431036311342087462855236

53561092211552212501895192

56441143911472182521909253

53461114011012074515808227

404281049231980481788143

471998879801911453822214

51341065810672119524895396

184470921010752003457871141

4397914710462031495893134

50101031711092222543944195

4742984310722128507904129

4630959610152101478889175

50801083011092211500928208

53871111711312279513982198

55001124711292224491960228

55051141010782177494902235

427685679602045463844200

4844100489942099465888226

51431056610732261520986332

194425907810692132493924158

4450896710442140496959146

4892989410592127516977185

4729952310372134481940137

432888449652058444852159

0.98990306060.76210932270.62783896170.42667669430.36544572910.5655948393

13456

164,912

4,656

5,0434870.1596666667

5,3565018.06866666674991.5985

5,6445347.47066666675174.502755122.0398

5,3465448.69466666675347.1945208.8755159.4271666667

4,0425010.61733333335096.941755086.09185014.343

4,7194702.4534937.7915021.41585024.9618333333

5,1344631.68033333334810.351254977.0425040.1875

174,4704774.4884591.286754742.30224892.5526666667

4,3974666.96366666674680.050754552.37724684.7083333333

5,0104625.624752.72654746.04364628.6501666667

4,9124772.98066666674697.2624784.61884773.7343333333

4,6564859.26733333334743.635254688.92944763.1155

5,0434870.15966666674905.12354803.44664747.8898333333

5,3565018.06866666674991.59854995.28184895.5246666667

5,6445347.47066666675174.502755122.03985103.369

5,3465448.69466666675347.1945208.8755159.4271666667

4,0425010.61733333335096.941755086.09185014.343

4,7194702.4534937.7915021.41585024.9618333333

5,1344631.68033333334810.351254977.0425040.1875

184,4704774.4884591.286754742.30224892.5526666667

4,3974666.96366666674680.050754552.37724684.7083333333

5,0104625.624752.72654746.04364628.650166666736

4,7424716.3714654.804754750.6534745.4295

4,6304793.97866666674694.668754649.75624730.4711666667

5,0804817.36233333334865.52554771.76824721.4911666667

5,3875032.18733333334959.730254969.78724874.2791666667

5,5005322.38433333335149.178755067.81485058.1815

5,5055464.01966666675368.056255220.35745140.691

4,2765093.855167.0965149.715063.0186666667

4,8444875.29833333335031.5125102.57645098.8413333333

5,1434754.75133333334942.33155053.89585109.3855

194,4254804.15733333334672.199254838.77384949.0036666667

4,4504672.66333333334715.6224627.76264773.9808333333

4,8924589.01933333334727.622254750.99744671.8853333333

4,7294690.424623.950754727.84684747.2886666667

4,3284649.74933333334599.8164564.76144661.2063333333

36

MFEMADMFEMAD

1363366

164,912

4,656

5,0434870.1596666667 173173 173173

5,3565018.0686666667 338338 338338

5,6445347.4706666667 296296 296296

5,3465448.69466666671021025159.4271666667 187187102102 187187

4,0425010.61733333339699695014.343973973969969973973

4,7194702.453 17175024.9618333333306306 1717306306

5,1344631.6803333333 5025025040.1875 9494 502502 9494

174,4704774.4883043044892.5526666667422422304304422422

4,3974666.96366666672702704684.7083333333288288270270288288

5,0104625.62 3843844628.6501666667 381381 384384 381381

4,9124772.9806666667 1391394773.7343333333 138138 139139 138138

4,6564859.26733333332042044763.1155108108204204108108

5,0434870.1596666667 1731734747.8898333333 295295 173173 295295

5,3565018.0686666667 3383384895.5246666667 460460 338338 460460

5,6445347.4706666667 2962965103.369 540540 296296 540540

5,3465448.69466666671021025159.4271666667 187187102102 187187

4,0425010.61733333339699695014.343973973969969973973

4,7194702.453 17175024.9618333333306306 1717306306

5,1344631.6803333333 5025025040.1875 9494 502502 9494

184,4704774.4883043044892.5526666667422422304304422422MAD

4,3974666.96366666672702704684.7083333333288288270270288288

5,0104625.62 3843844628.6501666667 381381 384384 381381

4,7424716.371 26264745.429533 262633

4,6304793.97866666671641644730.4711666667101101164164101101

5,0804817.3623333333 2632634721.4911666667 359359 263263 359359

5,3875032.1873333333 3553554874.2791666667 513513 355355 513513

5,5005322.3843333333 1781785058.1815 442442 178178 442442

5,5055464.0196666667 41415140.691 364364 4141 364364

4,2765093.858188185063.0186666667787787818818787787

4,8444875.298333333331315098.84133333332542543131254254

5,1434754.7513333333 3893895109.3855 3434 389389 3434

194,4254804.15733333333803804949.0036666667524524380380524524

4,4504672.66333333332232234773.9808333333324324223223324324

4,8924589.0193333333 3033034671.8853333333 221221 303303 221221

4,7294690.42 38384747.28866666671919 38381919

4,3284649.74933333333223224661.2063333333333333322322333333

829453337

143,42554,569170,76856,519MFE:Mean Forecast Error

MAD:Mean Absolute Deviation

1

3

4

5

6

plot

1

3

4

5

6

arranged source data

3

3

6

6

original data

3

3

6

6

m3m3H16-17H18-19

164,91210,1321,1301,9804158331424,4704,4704,4254,47076,573

4,6569,5011,0971,9603987931664,3974,3974,4504,39770,719

5,04310,3631,1342,0874628552365,0105,0104,8925,01071,515

5,35610,9221,1552,2125018951924,9124,9124,7424,7294,9124,74271,435

5,64411,4391,1472,1825219092534,6564,6564,6304,3284,6564,63067,811

5,34611,1401,1012,0745158082275,0435,0435,0805,0435,08063,514

4,0428,1049231,9804817881435,3565,3565,3875,3565,38759,687

4,7199,8879801,9114538222145,6445,6445,5005,6445,50057,569

5,13410,6581,0672,1195248953965,3465,3465,5055,3465,50559,089

174,4709,2101,0752,0034578711414,0424,0424,2764,0424,27658,985

4,3979,1471,0462,0314958931344,7194,7194,8444,7194,844

5,01010,3171,1092,2225439441955,1345,1345,1435,1345,143

4,91210,1321,1301,98041583314240004,4704,425

4,6569,5011,0971,9603987931664,3974,450

5,04310,3631,1342,0874628552365,0104,892

5,35610,9221,1552,2125018951924,9124,729

5,64411,4391,1472,1825219092534,6564,328

5,34611,1401,1012,0745158082275,043

4,0428,1049231,9804817881435,356

4,7199,8879801,9114538222145,644

5,13410,6581,0672,1195248953965,346

184,4709,2101,0752,0034578711414,042

4,3979,1471,0462,0314958931344,719

5,01010,3171,1092,2225439441955,134

4,7429,8431,0722,128507904129

4,6309,5961,0152,101478889175

5,08010,8301,1092,211500928208

5,38711,1171,1312,279513982198

5,50011,2471,1292,224491960228

5,50511,4101,0782,177494902235

4,2768,5679602,045463844200

4,84410,0489942,099465888226

5,14310,5661,0732,261520986332

194,4259,0781,0692,132493924158

4,4508,9671,0442,140496959146

4,8929,8941,0592,127516977185

4,7299,5231,0372,134481940137

4,3288,8449652,058444852159

H16-17

H18-19

H16-17

H18-19

m3m3

164,91210,1321,1301,980415833142

4,6569,5011,0971,960398793166

5,04310,3631,1342,087462855236

14,61029,9963,3616,0271,2752,481544

5,35610,9221,1552,212501895192

5,64411,4391,1472,182521909253

5,34611,1401,1012,074515808227

16,34633,5013,4036,4681,5372,612672

4,0428,1049231,980481788143

4,7199,8879801,911453822214

5,13410,6581,0672,119524895396

13,89528,6492,9706,0101,4582,505753

174,4709,2101,0752,003457871141

4,3979,1471,0462,031495893134

5,01010,3171,1092,222543944195

13,87728,6733,2306,2561,4952,708470

4,91210,1321,1301,980415833142

4,6569,5011,0971,960398793166

5,04310,3631,1342,087462855236

14,61029,9963,3616,0271,2752,481544

5,35610,9221,1552,212501895192

5,64411,4391,1472,182521909253

5,34611,1401,1012,074515808227

16,34633,5013,4036,4681,5372,612672

4,0428,1049231,980481788143

4,7199,8879801,911453822214

5,13410,6581,0672,119524895396

13,89528,6492,9706,0101,4582,505753

184,4709,2101,0752,003457871141

4,3979,1471,0462,031495893134

5,01010,3171,1092,222543944195

13,87728,6733,2306,2561,4952,708470

4,7429,8431,0722,128507904129

4,6309,5961,0152,101478889175

5,08010,8301,1092,211500928208

14,45230,2693,1966,4401,4852,721512

5,38711,1171,1312,279513982198

5,50011,2471,1292,224491960228

5,50511,4101,0782,177494902235

16,39233,7743,3386,6801,4982,845661

4,2768,5679602,045463844200

4,84410,0489942,099465888226

5,14310,5661,0732,261520986332

14,26429,1813,0276,4051,4482,719758

194,4259,0781,0692,132493924158

4,4508,9671,0442,140496959146

4,8929,8941,0592,127516977185

13,76727,9393,1726,3991,5052,860489

4,7299,5231,0372,134481940137

4,3288,8449652,058444852159

4,9124,6565,04314,6105,3565,6445,34616,3464,0424,7195,13413,8954,4704,3975,01013,8774,7424,6305,08014,4525,3875,5005,50516,3924,2764,8445,14314,2644,4254,4504,89213,7674,7294,328(4,500)13,557(4,700)(4,800)(4,800)14,300

5,0854,2734,91014,2684,9935,5165,57316,0824,1154,6115,12013,8454,8374,3675,03314,2374,9124,6565,04314,6105,3565,6445,34616,3464,0424,7195,13413,8954,4704,3975,01013,8774,7424,6305,08014,4525,3875,5005,50516,392

() 3.49.02.72.47.32.3 4.11.6 1.82.30.30.4 7.60.7 0.5 2.5 3.5 0.60.7 1.10.6 2.53.00.35.82.70.22.7 1.01.2 2.3 0.8 0.3 6.5 11.4 6.2 12.8 12.7 12.8 12.8

m310,1329,50110,36329,99610,92211,43911,14033,5018,1049,88710,65828,6499,2109,14710,31728,6739,8439,59610,83030,26911,11711,24711,41033,7748,56710,04810,56629,1819,0788,9679,89427,9399,5238,844(9,500)27,867(9,750)(10,000)(10,250)30,000

10,3918,93910,17629,50510,38011,42511,71633,5228,2929,63210,49728,42110,0998,93910,36529,40310,1329,50110,36329,99610,92211,43911,14033,5018,1049,88710,65828,6499,2109,14710,31728,6739,8439,59610,83030,26911,11711,24711,41033,774

() 2.56.31.81.75.20.1 4.9 0.1 2.32.71.50.8 8.82.3 0.5 2.5 2.81.04.50.91.8 1.72.40.85.71.6 0.91.9 1.4 2.0 4.1 2.6 3.3 7.8 12.3 7.9 12.3 11.1 10.2 11.2

m31,1301,0971,1343,3611,1551,1471,1013,4039239801,0672,9701,0751,0461,1093,2301,0721,0151,1093,1961,1311,1291,0783,3389609941,0733,0271,0691,0441,0593,1721,037965(900)2,902(925)(925)(875)2,725

1,1711,0901,1733,4341,1721,1981,1383,5089939821,0913,0661,1491,1081,1703,4271,1301,0971,1343,3611,1551,1471,1013,4039239801,0672,9701,0751,0461,1093,2301,0721,0151,1093,1961,1311,1291,0783,338

() 3.50.6 3.3 2.1 1.5 4.3 3.3 3.0 7.0 0.2 2.2 3.1 6.4 5.6 5.2 5.7 5.1 7.5 2.2 4.9 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.94.01.40.61.9 0.6 0.2 4.5 1.8 3.3 4.9 18.8 9.2 18.2 18.1 18.8 18.4

3 1,9801,9602,0876,0272,2122,1822,0746,4681,9801,9112,1196,0102,0032,0312,2226,2562,1282,1012,2116,4402,2792,2242,1776,6802,0452,0992,2616,4052,1322,1402,1276,3992,1342,058(1,950)6,142(1,950)(1,950)(1,900)5,800

2,1032,0132,2506,3662,1932,2252,0466,4641,9181,9272,0745,9192,0302,0542,1146,1981,9801,9602,0876,0272,2122,1822,0746,4681,9801,9112,1196,0102,0032,0312,2226,2562,1282,1012,2116,4402,2792,2242,1776,680

() 5.8 2.6 7.2 5.30.9 1.91.40.13.2 0.82.21.5 1.3 1.15.10.97.57.25.96.93.01.95.03.33.39.86.76.66.45.4 4.32.30.3 2.0 11.8 4.6 14.4 12.3 12.7 13.2

4153984621,2755015215151,5374814535241,4584574955431,4955074785001,4855134914941,4984634655201,4484934965161,505481444(450)1,375(420)(410)(410)1,240

5074804961,4834354644201,3194034174101,2304254824811,3884153984621,2755015215151,5374814535241,4584574955431,4955074785001,4855134914941,498

() 18.1 17.1 6.9 14.015.212.322.616.519.48.627.818.57.52.712.97.722.220.18.216.52.4 5.8 4.1 2.5 3.72.6 0.8 0.77.90.2 5.00.7 5.1 7.1 10.0 7.4 18.1 16.5 17.0 17.2

8337938552,4818959098082,6127888228952,5058718939442,7089048899282,7219829609022,8458448889862,7199249599772,860940852(770)2,563(830)(870)(800)2,500

8677878552,5098678377662,4707147128072,2338168158602,4918337938552,4818959098082,6127888228952,5058718939442,7089048899282,7219829609022,844

() 3.80.7 0.0 1.13.28.65.55.810.415.410.912.26.89.59.88.78.412.18.69.79.75.611.68.97.28.110.28.56.17.53.45.64.1 4.1 17.1 5.8 15.4 9.4 11.3 12.1

142166236544192253227672143214396753141134195470129175208512198228235661200226332758158146185489137159(205)501(200)(225)(230)655

206211254671256306300862205252423880173157180509142166236544192253227672143214396753141134195470129175208512198228235661

() 30.9 21.4 7.3 19.0 25.1 17.5 24.3 22.1 30.2 15.0 6.3 14.4 18.3 14.38.3 7.7 9.55.4 11.7 5.93.0 9.63.5 1.640.25.5 16.30.611.79.1 4.94.16.5 9.1 1.5 2.11.2 1.5 2.1 0.9

m3m3

http://www.mlit.go.jp/toukeijouhou/chojou/tukibetu_yosoku.htm

24-863

24-864

03(5253)8111

03(5253)8283

m3m3

1649121013211301980415833142

4656950110971960398793166

50431036311342087462855236

53561092211552212501895192

56441143911472182521909253

53461114011012074515808227

404281049231980481788143

471998879801911453822214

51341065810672119524895396

174470921010752003457871141

4397914710462031495893134

50101031711092222543944195

49121013211301980415833142

4656950110971960398793166

50431036311342087462855236

53561092211552212501895192

56441143911472182521909253

53461114011012074515808227

404281049231980481788143

471998879801911453822214

51341065810672119524895396

184470921010752003457871141

4397914710462031495893134

50101031711092222543944195

4742984310722128507904129

4630959610152101478889175

50801083011092211500928208

53871111711312279513982198

55001124711292224491960228

55051141010782177494902235

427685679602045463844200

4844100489942099465888226

51431056610732261520986332

194425907810692132493924158

4450896710442140496959146

4892989410592127516977185

4729952310372134481940137

432888449652058444852159

0.98990306060.76210932270.62783896170.42667669430.36544572910.5655948393

13456

164,912

4,656

5,0434870.1596666667

5,3565018.06866666674991.5985

5,6445347.47066666675174.502755122.0398

5,3465448.69466666675347.1945208.8755159.4271666667

4,0425010.61733333335096.941755086.09185014.343

4,7194702.4534937.7915021.41585024.9618333333

5,1344631.68033333334810.351254977.0425040.1875

174,4704774.4884591.286754742.30224892.5526666667

4,3974666.96366666674680.050754552.37724684.7083333333

5,0104625.624752.72654746.04364628.6501666667

4,9124772.98066666674697.2624784.61884773.7343333333

4,6564859.26733333334743.635254688.92944763.1155

5,0434870.15966666674905.12354803.44664747.8898333333

5,3565018.06866666674991.59854995.28184895.5246666667

5,6445347.47066666675174.502755122.03985103.369

5,3465448.69466666675347.1945208.8755159.4271666667

4,0425010.61733333335096.941755086.09185014.343

4,7194702.4534937.7915021.41585024.9618333333

5,1344631.68033333334810.351254977.0425040.1875

184,4704774.4884591.286754742.30224892.5526666667

4,3974666.96366666674680.050754552.37724684.7083333333

5,0104625.624752.72654746.04364628.650166666736

4,7424716.3714654.804754750.6534745.4295

4,6304793.97866666674694.668754649.75624730.4711666667

5,0804817.36233333334865.52554771.76824721.4911666667

5,3875032.18733333334959.730254969.78724874.2791666667

5,5005322.38433333335149.178755067.81485058.1815

5,5055464.01966666675368.056255220.35745140.691

4,2765093.855167.0965149.715063.0186666667

4,8444875.29833333335031.5125102.57645098.8413333333

5,1434754.75133333334942.33155053.89585109.3855

194,4254804.15733333334672.199254838.77384949.0036666667

4,4504672.66333333334715.6224627.76264773.9808333333

4,8924589.01933333334727.622254750.99744671.8853333333

4,7294690.424623.950754727.84684747.2886666667

4,3284649.74933333334599.8164564.76144661.2063333333

36

MFEMADMFEMAD

1363366

164,912

4,656

5,0434870.1596666667 173173 173173

5,3565018.0686666667 338338 338338

5,6445347.4706666667 296296 296296

5,3465448.69466666671021025159.4271666667 187187102102 187187

4,0425010.61733333339699695014.343973973969969973973

4,7194702.453 17175024.9618333333306306 1717306306

5,1344631.6803333333 5025025040.1875 9494 502502 9494

174,4704774.4883043044892.5526666667422422304304422422

4,3974666.96366666672702704684.7083333333288288270270288288

5,0104625.62 3843844628.6501666667 381381 384384 381381

4,9124772.9806666667 1391394773.7343333333 138138 139139 138138

4,6564859.26733333332042044763.1155108108204204108108

5,0434870.1596666667 1731734747.8898333333 295295 173173 295295

5,3565018.0686666667 3383384895.5246666667 460460 338338 460460

5,6445347.4706666667 2962965103.369 540540 296296 540540

5,3465448.69466666671021025159.4271666667 187187102102 187187

4,0425010.61733333339699695014.343973973969969973973

4,7194702.453 17175024.9618333333306306 1717306306

5,1344631.6803333333 5025025040.1875 9494 502502 9494

184,4704774.4883043044892.5526666667422422304304422422MAD

4,3974666.96366666672702704684.7083333333288288270270288288

5,0104625.62 3843844628.6501666667 381381 384384 381381

4,7424716.371 26264745.429533 262633

4,6304793.97866666671641644730.4711666667101101164164101101

5,0804817.3623333333 2632634721.4911666667 359359 263263 359359

5,3875032.1873333333 3553554874.2791666667 513513 355355 513513

5,5005322.3843333333 1781785058.1815 442442 178178 442442

5,5055464.0196666667 41415140.691 364364 4141 364364

4,2765093.858188185063.0186666667787787818818787787

4,8444875.298333333331315098.84133333332542543131254254

5,1434754.7513333333 3893895109.3855 3434 389389 3434

194,4254804.15733333333803804949.0036666667524524380380524524

4,4504672.66333333332232234773.9808333333324324223223324324

4,8924589.0193333333 3033034671.8853333333 221221 303303 221221

4,7294690.42 38384747.28866666671919 38381919

4,3284649.74933333333223224661.2063333333333333322322333333

829453337

143,42554,569170,76856,519MFE:Mean Forecast Error

MAD:Mean Absolute Deviation

1

3

4

5

6

plot

1

3

4

5

6

arranged source data

3

3

6

6

original data

3

3

6

6

m3m3H16-17H18-19

164,91210,1321,1301,9804158331424,4704,4704,4254,47076,573

4,6569,5011,0971,9603987931664,3974,3974,4504,39770,719

5,04310,3631,1342,0874628552365,0105,0104,8925,01071,515

5,35610,9221,1552,2125018951924,9124,9124,7424,7294,9124,74271,435

5,64411,4391,1472,1825219092534,6564,6564,6304,3284,6564,63067,811

5,34611,1401,1012,0745158082275,0435,0435,0805,0435,08063,514

4,0428,1049231,9804817881435,3565,3565,3875,3565,38759,687

4,7199,8879801,9114538222145,6445,6445,5005,6445,50057,569

5,13410,6581,0672,1195248953965,3465,3465,5055,3465,50559,089

174,4709,2101,0752,0034578711414,0424,0424,2764,0424,27658,985

4,3979,1471,0462,0314958931344,7194,7194,8444,7194,844

5,01010,3171,1092,2225439441955,1345,1345,1435,1345,143

4,91210,1321,1301,98041583314240004,4704,425

4,6569,5011,0971,9603987931664,3974,450

5,04310,3631,1342,0874628552365,0104,892

5,35610,9221,1552,2125018951924,9124,729

5,64411,4391,1472,1825219092534,6564,328

5,34611,1401,1012,0745158082275,043

4,0428,1049231,9804817881435,356

4,7199,8879801,9114538222145,644

5,13410,6581,0672,1195248953965,346

184,4709,2101,0752,0034578711414,042

4,3979,1471,0462,0314958931344,719

5,01010,3171,1092,2225439441955,134

4,7429,8431,0722,128507904129

4,6309,5961,0152,101478889175

5,08010,8301,1092,211500928208

5,38711,1171,1312,279513982198

5,50011,2471,1292,224491960228

5,50511,4101,0782,177494902235

4,2768,5679602,045463844200

4,84410,0489942,099465888226

5,14310,5661,0732,261520986332

194,4259,0781,0692,132493924158

4,4508,9671,0442,140496959146

4,8929,8941,0592,127516977185

4,7299,5231,0372,134481940137

4,3288,8449652,058444852159

H16-17

H18-19

H16-17

H18-19

m3m3

164,91210,1321,1301,980415833142

4,6569,5011,0971,960398793166

5,04310,3631,1342,087462855236

14,61029,9963,3616,0271,2752,481544

5,35610,9221,1552,212501895192

5,64411,4391,1472,182521909253

5,34611,1401,1012,074515808227

16,34633,5013,4036,4681,5372,612672

4,0428,1049231,980481788143

4,7199,8879801,911453822214

5,13410,6581,0672,119524895396

13,89528,6492,9706,0101,4582,505753

174,4709,2101,0752,003457871141

4,3979,1471,0462,031495893134

5,01010,3171,1092,222543944195

13,87728,6733,2306,2561,4952,708470

4,91210,1321,1301,980415833142

4,6569,5011,0971,960398793166

5,04310,3631,1342,087462855236

14,61029,9963,3616,0271,2752,481544

5,35610,9221,1552,212501895192

5,64411,4391,1472,182521909253

5,34611,1401,1012,074515808227

16,34633,5013,4036,4681,5372,612672

4,0428,1049231,980481788143

4,7199,8879801,911453822214

5,13410,6581,0672,119524895396

13,89528,6492,9706,0101,4582,505753

184,4709,2101,0752,003457871141

4,3979,1471,0462,031495893134

5,01010,3171,1092,222543944195

13,87728,6733,2306,2561,4952,708470

4,7429,8431,0722,128507904129

4,6309,5961,0152,101478889175

5,08010,8301,1092,211500928208

14,45230,2693,1966,4401,4852,721512

5,38711,1171,1312,279513982198

5,50011,2471,1292,224491960228

5,50511,4101,0782,177494902235

16,39233,7743,3386,6801,4982,845661

4,2768,5679602,045463844200

4,84410,0489942,099465888226

5,14310,5661,0732,261520986332

14,26429,1813,0276,4051,4482,719758

194,4259,0781,0692,132493924158

4,4508,9671,0442,140496959146

4,8929,8941,0592,127516977185

13,76727,9393,1726,3991,5052,860489

4,7299,5231,0372,134481940137

4,3288,8449652,058444852159

4,9124,6565,04314,6105,3565,6445,34616,3464,0424,7195,13413,8954,4704,3975,01013,8774,7424,6305,08014,4525,3875,5005,50516,3924,2764,8445,14314,2644,4254,4504,89213,7674,7294,328(4,500)13,557(4,700)(4,800)(4,800)14,300

5,0854,2734,91014,2684,9935,5165,57316,0824,1154,6115,12013,8454,8374,3675,03314,2374,9124,6565,04314,6105,3565,6445,34616,3464,0424,7195,13413,8954,4704,3975,01013,8774,7424,6305,08014,4525,3875,5005,50516,392

() 3.49.02.72.47.32.3 4.11.6 1.82.30.30.4 7.60.7 0.5 2.5 3.5 0.60.7 1.10.6 2.53.00.35.82.70.22.7 1.01.2 2.3 0.8 0.3 6.5 11.4 6.2 12.8 12.7 12.8 12.8

m310,1329,50110,36329,99610,92211,43911,14033,5018,1049,88710,65828,6499,2109,14710,31728,6739,8439,59610,83030,26911,11711,24711,41033,7748,56710,04810,56629,1819,0788,9679,89427,9399,5238,844(9,500)27,867(9,750)(10,000)(10,250)30,000

10,3918,93910,17629,50510,38011,42511,71633,5228,2929,63210,49728,42110,0998,93910,36529,40310,1329,50110,36329,99610,92211,43911,14033,5018,1049,88710,65828,6499,2109,14710,31728,6739,8439,59610,83030,26911,11711,24711,41033,774

() 2.56.31.81.75.20.1 4.9 0.1 2.32.71.50.8 8.82.3 0.5 2.5 2.81.04.50.91.8 1.72.40.85.71.6 0.91.9 1.4 2.0 4.1 2.6 3.3 7.8 12.3 7.9 12.3 11.1 10.2 11.2

m31,1301,0971,1343,3611,1551,1471,1013,4039239801,0672,9701,0751,0461,1093,2301,0721,0151,1093,1961,1311,1291,0783,3389609941,0733,0271,0691,0441,0593,1721,037965(900)2,902(925)(925)(875)2,725

1,1711,0901,1733,4341,1721,1981,1383,5089939821,0913,0661,1491,1081,1703,4271,1301,0971,1343,3611,1551,1471,1013,4039239801,0672,9701,0751,0461,1093,2301,0721,0151,1093,1961,1311,1291,0783,338

() 3.50.6 3.3 2.1 1.5 4.3 3.3 3.0 7.0 0.2 2.2 3.1 6.4 5.6 5.2 5.7 5.1 7.5 2.2 4.9 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.94.01.40.61.9 0.6 0.2 4.5 1.8 3.3 4.9 18.8 9.2 18.2 18.1 18.8 18.4

3 1,9801,9602,0876,0272,2122,1822,0746,4681,9801,9112,1196,0102,0032,0312,2226,2562,1282,1012,2116,4402,2792,2242,1776,6802,0452,0992,2616,4052,1322,1402,1276,3992,1342,058(1,950)6,142(1,950)(1,950)(1,900)5,800

2,1032,0132,2506,3662,1932,2252,0466,4641,9181,9272,0745,9192,0302,0542,1146,1981,9801,9602,0876,0272,2122,1822,0746,4681,9801,9112,1196,0102,0032,0312,2226,2562,1282,1012,2116,4402,2792,2242,1776,680

() 5.8 2.6 7.2 5.30.9 1.91.40.13.2 0.82.21.5 1.3 1.15.10.97.57.25.96.93.01.95.03.33.39.86.76.66.45.4 4.32.30.3 2.0 11.8 4.6 14.4 12.3 12.7 13.2

4153984621,2755015215151,5374814535241,4584574955431,4955074785001,4855134914941,4984634655201,4484934965161,505481444(450)1,375(420)(410)(410)1,240

5074804961,4834354644201,3194034174101,2304254824811,3884153984621,2755015215151,5374814535241,4584574955431,4955074785001,4855134914941,498

() 18.1 17.1 6.9 14.015.212.322.616.519.48.627.818.57.52.712.97.722.220.18.216.52.4 5.8 4.1 2.5 3.72.6 0.8 0.77.90.2 5.00.7 5.1 7.1 10.0 7.4 18.1 16.5 17.0 17.2

8337938552,4818959098082,6127888228952,5058718939442,7089048899282,7219829609022,8458448889862,7199249599772,860940852(770)2,563(830)(870)(800)2,500

8677878552,5098678377662,4707147128072,2338168158602,4918337938552,4818959098082,6127888228952,5058718939442,7089048899282,7219829609022,844

() 3.80.7 0.0 1.13.28.65.55.810.415.410.912.26.89.59.88.78.412.18.69.79.75.611.68.97.28.110.28.56.17.53.45.64.1 4.1 17.1 5.8 15.4 9.4 11.3 12.1

142166236544192253227672143214396753141134195470129175208512198228235661200226332758158146185489137159(205)501(200)(225)(230)655

206211254671256306300862205252423880173157180509142166236544192253227672143214396753141134195470129175208512198228235661

() 30.9 21.4 7.3 19.0 25.1 17.5 24.3 22.1 30.2 15.0 6.3 14.4 18.3 14.38.3 7.7 9.55.4 11.7 5.93.0 9.63.5 1.640.25.5 16.30.611.79.1 4.94.16.5 9.1 1.5 2.11.2 1.5 2.1 0.9

m3m3

http://www.mlit.go.jp/toukeijouhou/chojou/tukibetu_yosoku.htm

24-863

24-864

03(5253)8111

03(5253)8283

Graph1

4470.1064470.1064424.543

4396.7394396.7394450.016

5010.0155010.0154892.499

4912.1884912.1884742.3594728.745

4655.5994655.5994629.5624328.004

5042.6925042.6925080.166

5355.9155355.9155386.834

5643.8055643.8055500.153

5346.3645346.3645505.072

4041.6834041.6834276.325

4719.3124719.3124844.498

5134.0465134.0465143.431

m3m3

1649121013211301980415833142

4656950110971960398793166

50431036311342087462855236

53561092211552212501895192

56441143911472182521909253

53461114011012074515808227

404281049231980481788143

471998879801911453822214

51341065810672119524895396

174470921010752003457871141

4397914710462031495893134

50101031711092222543944195

49121013211301980415833142

4656950110971960398793166

50431036311342087462855236

53561092211552212501895192

56441143911472182521909253

53461114011012074515808227

404281049231980481788143

471998879801911453822214

51341065810672119524895396

184470921010752003457871141

4397914710462031495893134

50101031711092222543944195

4742984310722128507904129

4630959610152101478889175

50801083011092211500928208

53871111711312279513982198

55001124711292224491960228

55051141010782177494902235

427685679602045463844200

4844100489942099465888226

51431056610732261520986332

194425907810692132493924158

4450896710442140496959146

4892989410592127516977185

4729952310372134481940137

432888449652058444852159

0.98990306060.76210932270.62783896170.42667669430.36544572910.5655948393

13456

164,912

4,656

5,0434870.1596666667

5,3565018.06866666674991.5985

5,6445347.47066666675174.502755122.0398

5,3465448.69466666675347.1945208.8755159.4271666667

4,0425010.61733333335096.941755086.09185014.343

4,7194702.4534937.7915021.41585024.9618333333

5,1344631.68033333334810.351254977.0425040.1875

174,4704774.4884591.286754742.30224892.5526666667

4,3974666.96366666674680.050754552.37724684.7083333333

5,0104625.624752.72654746.04364628.6501666667

4,9124772.98066666674697.2624784.61884773.7343333333

4,6564859.26733333334743.635254688.92944763.1155

5,0434870.15966666674905.12354803.44664747.8898333333

5,3565018.06866666674991.59854995.28184895.5246666667

5,6445347.47066666675174.502755122.03985103.369

5,3465448.69466666675347.1945208.8755159.4271666667

4,0425010.61733333335096.941755086.09185014.343

4,7194702.4534937.7915021.41585024.9618333333

5,1344631.68033333334810.351254977.0425040.1875

184,4704774.4884591.286754742.30224892.5526666667

4,3974666.96366666674680.050754552.37724684.7083333333

5,0104625.624752.72654746.04364628.650166666736

4,7424716.3714654.804754750.6534745.4295

4,6304793.97866666674694.668754649.75624730.4711666667

5,0804817.36233333334865.52554771.76824721.4911666667

5,3875032.18733333334959.730254969.78724874.2791666667

5,5005322.38433333335149.178755067.81485058.1815

5,5055464.01966666675368.056255220.35745140.691

4,2765093.855167.0965149.715063.0186666667

4,8444875.29833333335031.5125102.57645098.8413333333

5,1434754.75133333334942.33155053.89585109.3855

194,4254804.15733333334672.199254838.77384949.0036666667

4,4504672.66333333334715.6224627.76264773.9808333333

4,8924589.01933333334727.622254750.99744671.8853333333

4,7294690.424623.950754727.84684747.2886666667

4,3284649.74933333334599.8164564.76144661.2063333333

36

MFEMADMFEMAD

1363366

164,912

4,656

5,0434870.1596666667 173173 173173

5,3565018.0686666667 338338 338338

5,6445347.4706666667 296296 296296

5,3465448.69466666671021025159.4271666667 187187102102 187187

4,0425010.61733333339699695014.343973973969969973973

4,7194702.453 17175024.9618333333306306 1717306306

5,1344631.6803333333 5025025040.1875 9494 502502 9494

174,4704774.4883043044892.5526666667422422304304422422

4,3974666.96366666672702704684.7083333333288288270270288288

5,0104625.62 3843844628.6501666667 381381 384384 381381

4,9124772.9806666667 1391394773.7343333333 138138 139139 138138

4,6564859.26733333332042044763.1155108108204204108108

5,0434870.1596666667 1731734747.8898333333 295295 173173 295295

5,3565018.0686666667 3383384895.5246666667 460460 338338 460460

5,6445347.4706666667 2962965103.369 540540 296296 540540

5,3465448.69466666671021025159.4271666667 187187102102 187187

4,0425010.61733333339699695014.343973973969969973973

4,7194702.453 17175024.9618333333306306 1717306306

5,1344631.6803333333 5025025040.1875 9494 502502 9494

184,4704774.4883043044892.5526666667422422304304422422MAD

4,3974666.96366666672702704684.7083333333288288270270288288

5,0104625.62 3843844628.6501666667 381381 384384 381381

4,7424716.371 26264745.429533 262633

4,6304793.97866666671641644730.4711666667101101164164101101

5,0804817.3623333333 2632634721.4911666667 359359 263263 359359

5,3875032.1873333333 3553554874.2791666667 513513 355355 513513

5,5005322.3843333333 1781785058.1815 442442 178178 442442

5,5055464.0196666667 41415140.691 364364 4141 364364

4,2765093.858188185063.0186666667787787818818787787

4,8444875.298333333331315098.84133333332542543131254254

5,1434754.7513333333 3893895109.3855 3434 389389 3434

194,4254804.15733333333803804949.0036666667524524380380524524

4,4504672.66333333332232234773.9808333333324324223223324324

4,8924589.0193333333 3033034671.8853333333 221221 303303 221221

4,7294690.42 38384747.28866666671919 38381919

4,3284649.74933333333223224661.2063333333333333322322333333

829453337

143,42554,569170,76856,519MFE:Mean Forecast Error

MAD:Mean Absolute Deviation

1

3

4

5

6

plot

1

3

4

5

6

arranged source data

3

3

6

6

original data

3

3

6

6

m3m3H16-17H18-19

164,91210,1321,1301,9804158331424,4704,4704,4254,47076,573

4,6569,5011,0971,9603987931664,3974,3974,4504,39770,719

5,04310,3631,1342,0874628552365,0105,0104,8925,01071,515

5,35610,9221,1552,2125018951924,9124,9124,7424,7294,9124,74271,435

5,64411,4391,1472,1825219092534,6564,6564,6304,3284,6564,63067,811

5,34611,1401,1012,0745158082275,0435,0435,0805,0435,08063,514

4,0428,1049231,9804817881435,3565,3565,3875,3565,38759,687

4,7199,8879801,9114538222145,6445,6445,5005,6445,50057,569

5,13410,6581,0672,1195248953965,3465,3465,5055,3465,50559,089

174,4709,2101,0752,0034578711414,0424,0424,2764,0424,27658,985

4,3979,1471,0462,0314958931344,7194,7194,8444,7194,844

5,01010,3171,1092,2225439441955,1345,1345,1435,1345,143

4,91210,1321,1301,98041583314240004,4704,425

4,6569,5011,0971,9603987931664,3974,450

5,04310,3631,1342,0874628552365,0104,892

5,35610,9221,1552,2125018951924,9124,729

5,64411,4391,1472,1825219092534,6564,328

5,34611,1401,1012,0745158082275,043

4,0428,1049231,9804817881435,356

4,7199,8879801,9114538222145,644

5,13410,6581,0672,1195248953965,346

184,4709,2101,0752,0034578711414,042

4,3979,1471,0462,0314958931344,719

5,01010,3171,1092,2225439441955,134

4,7429,8431,0722,128507904129

4,6309,5961,0152,101478889175

5,08010,8301,1092,211500928208

5,38711,1171,1312,279513982198

5,50011,2471,1292,224491960228

5,50511,4101,0782,177494902235

4,2768,5679602,045463844200

4,84410,0489942,099465888226

5,14310,5661,0732,261520986332

194,4259,0781,0692,132493924158

4,4508,9671,0442,140496959146

4,8929,8941,0592,127516977185

4,7299,5231,0372,134481940137

4,3288,8449652,058444852159

H16-17

H18-19

H16-17

H18-19

m3m3

164,91210,1321,1301,980415833142

4,6569,5011,0971,960398793166

5,04310,3631,1342,087462855236

14,61029,9963,3616,0271,2752,481544

5,35610,9221,1552,212501895192

5,64411,4391,1472,182521909253

5,34611,1401,1012,074515808227

16,34633,5013,4036,4681,5372,612672

4,0428,1049231,980481788143

4,7199,8879801,911453822214

5,13410,6581,0672,119524895396

13,89528,6492,9706,0101,4582,505753

174,4709,2101,0752,003457871141

4,3979,1471,0462,031495893134

5,01010,3171,1092,222543944195

13,87728,6733,2306,2561,4952,708470

4,91210,1321,1301,980415833142

4,6569,5011,0971,960398793166

5,04310,3631,1342,087462855236

14,61029,9963,3616,0271,2752,481544

5,35610,9221,1552,212501895192

5,64411,4391,1472,182521909253

5,34611,1401,1012,074515808227

16,34633,5013,4036,4681,5372,612672

4,0428,1049231,980481788143

4,7199,8879801,911453822214

5,13410,6581,0672,119524895396

13,89528,6492,9706,0101,4582,505753

184,4709,2101,0752,003457871141

4,3979,1471,0462,031495893134

5,01010,3171,1092,222543944195

13,87728,6733,2306,2561,4952,708470

4,7429,8431,0722,128507904129

4,6309,5961,0152,101478889175

5,08010,8301,1092,211500928208

14,45230,2693,1966,4401,4852,721512

5,38711,1171,1312,279513982198

5,50011,2471,1292,224491960228

5,50511,4101,0782,177494902235

16,39233,7743,3386,6801,4982,845661

4,2768,5679602,045463844200

4,84410,0489942,099465888226

5,14310,5661,0732,261520986332

14,26429,1813,0276,4051,4482,719758

194,4259,0781,0692,132493924158

4,4508,9671,0442,140496959146

4,8929,8941,0592,127516977185

13,76727,9393,1726,3991,5052,860489

4,7299,5231,0372,134481940137

4,3288,8449652,058444852159

4,9124,6565,04314,6105,3565,6445,34616,3464,0424,7195,13413,8954,4704,3975,01013,8774,7424,6305,08014,4525,3875,5005,50516,3924,2764,8445,14314,2644,4254,4504,89213,7674,7294,328(4,500)13,557(4,700)(4,800)(4,800)14,300

5,0854,2734,91014,2684,9935,5165,57316,0824,1154,6115,12013,8454,8374,3675,03314,2374,9124,6565,04314,6105,3565,6445,34616,3464,0424,7195,13413,8954,4704,3975,01013,8774,7424,6305,08014,4525,3875,5005,50516,392

() 3.49.02.72.47.32.3 4.11.6 1.82.30.30.4 7.60.7 0.5 2.5 3.5 0.60.7 1.10.6 2.53.00.35.82.70.22.7 1.01.2 2.3 0.8 0.3 6.5 11.4 6.2 12.8 12.7 12.8 12.8

m310,1329,50110,36329,99610,92211,43911,14033,5018,1049,88710,65828,6499,2109,14710,31728,6739,8439,59610,83030,26911,11711,24711,41033,7748,56710,04810,56629,1819,0788,9679,89427,9399,5238,844(9,500)27,867(9,750)(10,000)(10,250)30,000

10,3918,93910,17629,50510,38011,42511,71633,5228,2929,63210,49728,42110,0998,93910,36529,40310,1329,50110,36329,99610,92211,43911,14033,5018,1049,88710,65828,6499,2109,14710,31728,6739,8439,59610,83030,26911,11711,24711,41033,774

() 2.56.31.81.75.20.1 4.9 0.1 2.32.71.50.8 8.82.3 0.5 2.5 2.81.04.50.91.8 1.72.40.85.71.6 0.91.9 1.4 2.0 4.1 2.6 3.3 7.8 12.3 7.9 12.3 11.1 10.2 11.2

m31,1301,0971,1343,3611,1551,1471,1013,4039239801,0672,9701,0751,0461,1093,2301,0721,0151,1093,1961,1311,1291,0783,3389609941,0733,0271,0691,0441,0593,1721,037965(900)2,902(925)(925)(875)2,725

1,1711,0901,1733,4341,1721,1981,1383,5089939821,0913,0661,1491,1081,1703,4271,1301,0971,1343,3611,1551,1471,1013,4039239801,0672,9701,0751,0461,1093,2301,0721,0151,1093,1961,1311,1291,0783,338

() 3.50.6 3.3 2.1 1.5 4.3 3.3 3.0 7.0 0.2 2.2 3.1 6.4 5.6 5.2 5.7 5.1 7.5 2.2 4.9 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.94.01.40.61.9 0.6 0.2 4.5 1.8 3.3 4.9 18.8 9.2 18.2 18.1 18.8 18.4

3 1,9801,9602,0876,0272,2122,1822,0746,4681,9801,9112,1196,0102,0032,0312,2226,2562,1282,1012,2116,4402,2792,2242,1776,6802,0452,0992,2616,4052,1322,1402,1276,3992,1342,058(1,950)6,142(1,950)(1,950)(1,900)5,800

2,1032,0132,2506,3662,1932,2252,0466,4641,9181,9272,0745,9192,0302,0542,1146,1981,9801,9602,0876,0272,2122,1822,0746,4681,9801,9112,1196,0102,0032,0312,2226,2562,1282,1012,2116,4402,2792,2242,1776,680

() 5.8 2.6 7.2 5.30.9 1.91.40.13.2 0.82.21.5 1.3 1.15.10.97.57.25.96.93.01.95.03.33.39.86.76.66.45.4 4.32.30.3 2.0 11.8 4.6 14.4 12.3 12.7 13.2

4153984621,2755015215151,5374814535241,4584574955431,4955074785001,4855134914941,4984634655201,4484934965161,505481444(450)1,375(420)(410)(410)1,240

5074804961,4834354644201,3194034174101,2304254824811,3884153984621,2755015215151,5374814535241,4584574955431,4955074785001,4855134914941,498

() 18.1 17.1 6.9 14.015.212.322.616.519.48.627.818.57.52.712.97.722.220.18.216.52.4 5.8 4.1 2.5 3.72.6 0.8 0.77.90.2 5.00.7 5.1 7.1 10.0 7.4 18.1 16.5 17.0 17.2

8337938552,4818959098082,6127888228952,5058718939442,7089048899282,7219829609022,8458448889862,7199249599772,860940852(770)2,563(830)(870)(800)2,500

8677878552,5098678377662,4707147128072,2338168158602,4918337938552,4818959098082,6127888228952,5058718939442,7089048899282,7219829609022,844

() 3.80.7 0.0 1.13.28.65.55.810.415.410.912.26.89.59.88.78.412.18.69.79.75.611.68.97.28.110.28.56.17.53.45.64.1 4.1 17.1 5.8 15.4 9.4 11.3 12.1

142166236544192253227672143214396753141134195470129175208512198228235661200226332758158146185489137159(205)501(200)(225)(230)655

206211254671256306300862205252423880173157180509142166236544192253227672143214396753141134195470129175208512198228235661

() 30.9 21.4 7.3 19.0 25.1 17.5 24.3 22.1 30.2 15.0 6.3 14.4 18.3 14.38.3 7.7 9.55.4 11.7 5.93.0 9.63.5 1.640.25.5 16.30.611.79.1 4.94.16.5 9.1 1.5 2.11.2 1.5 2.1 0.9

m3m3

http://www.mlit.go.jp/toukeijouhou/chojou/tukibetu_yosoku.htm

24-863

24-864

03(5253)8111

03(5253)8283

Graph2

4470.1064470.1064424.543

4396.7394396.7394450.016

5010.0155010.0154892.499

4912.1884912.1884742.3594728.745

4655.5994655.5994629.5624328.004

5042.6925042.6925080.166

5355.9155355.9155386.834

5643.8055643.8055500.153

5346.3645346.3645505.072

4041.6834041.6834276.325

4719.3124719.3124844.498

5134.0465134.0465143.431

m3m3

1649121013211301980415833142

4656950110971960398793166

50431036311342087462855236

53561092211552212501895192

56441143911472182521909253

53461114011012074515808227

404281049231980481788143

471998879801911453822214

51341065810672119524895396

174470921010752003457871141

4397914710462031495893134

50101031711092222543944195

49121013211301980415833142

4656950110971960398793166

50431036311342087462855236

53561092211552212501895192

56441143911472182521909253

53461114011012074515808227

404281049231980481788143

471998879801911453822214

51341065810672119524895396

184470921010752003457871141

4397914710462031495893134

50101031711092222543944195

4742984310722128507904129

4630959610152101478889175

50801083011092211500928208

53871111711312279513982198

55001124711292224491960228

55051141010782177494902235

427685679602045463844200

4844100489942099465888226

51431056610732261520986332

194425907810692132493924158

4450896710442140496959146

4892989410592127516977185

4729952310372134481940137

432888449652058444852159

0.98990306060.76210932270.62783896170.42667669430.36544572910.5655948393

13456

164,912

4,656

5,0434870.1596666667

5,3565018.06866666674991.5985

5,6445347.47066666675174.502755122.0398

5,3465448.69466666675347.1945208.8755159.4271666667

4,0425010.61733333335096.941755086.09185014.343

4,7194702.4534937.7915021.41585024.9618333333

5,1344631.68033333334810.351254977.0425040.1875

174,4704774.4884591.286754742.30224892.5526666667

4,3974666.96366666674680.050754552.37724684.7083333333

5,0104625.624752.72654746.04364628.6501666667

4,9124772.98066666674697.2624784.61884773.7343333333

4,6564859.26733333334743.635254688.92944763.1155

5,0434870.15966666674905.12354803.44664747.8898333333

5,3565018.06866666674991.59854995.28184895.5246666667

5,6445347.47066666675174.502755122.03985103.369

5,3465448.69466666675347.1945208.8755159.4271666667

4,0425010.61733333335096.941755086.09185014.343

4,7194702.4534937.7915021.41585024.9618333333

5,1344631.68033333334810.351254977.0425040.1875

184,4704774.4884591.286754742.30224892.5526666667

4,3974666.96366666674680.050754552.37724684.7083333333

5,0104625.624752.72654746.04364628.650166666736

4,7424716.3714654.804754750.6534745.4295

4,6304793.97866666674694.668754649.75624730.4711666667

5,0804817.36233333334865.52554771.76824721.4911666667

5,3875032.18733333334959.730254969.78724874.2791666667

5,5005322.38433333335149.178755067.81485058.1815

5,5055464.01966666675368.056255220.35745140.691

4,2765093.855167.0965149.715063.0186666667

4,8444875.29833333335031.5125102.57645098.8413333333

5,1434754.75133333334942.33155053.89585109.3855

194,4254804.15733333334672.199254838.77384949.0036666667

4,4504672.66333333334715.6224627.76264773.9808333333

4,8924589.01933333334727.622254750.99744671.8853333333

4,7294690.424623.950754727.84684747.2886666667

4,3284649.74933333334599.8164564.76144661.2063333333

36

MFEMADMFEMAD

1363366

164,912

4,656

5,0434870.1596666667 173173 173173

5,3565018.0686666667 338338 338338

5,6445347.4706666667 296296 296296

5,3465448.69466666671021025159.4271666667 187187102102 187187

4,0425010.61733333339699695014.343973973969969973973

4,7194702.453 17175024.9618333333306306 1717306306

5,1344631.6803333333 5025025040.1875 9494 502502 9494

174,4704774.4883043044892.5526666667422422304304422422

4,3974666.96366666672702704684.7083333333288288270270288288

5,0104625.62 3843844628.6501666667 381381 384384 381381

4,9124772.9806666667 1391394773.7343333333 138138 139139 138138

4,6564859.26733333332042044763.1155108108204204108108

5,0434870.1596666667 1731734747.8898333333 295295 173173 295295

5,3565018.0686666667 3383384895.5246666667 460460 338338 460460

5,6445347.4706666667 2962965103.369 540540 296296 540540

5,3465448.69466666671021025159.4271666667 187187102102 187187

4,0425010.61733333339699695014.343973973969969973973

4,7194702.453 17175024.9618333333306306 1717306306

5,1344631.6803333333 5025025040.1875 9494 502502 9494

184,4704774.4883043044892.5526666667422422304304422422MAD

4,3974666.96366666672702704684.7083333333288288270270288288

5,0104625.62 3843844628.6501666667 381381 384384 381381

4,7424716.371 26264745.429533 262633

4,6304793.97866666671641644730.4711666667101101164164101101

5,0804817.3623333333 2632634721.4911666667 359359 263263 359359

5,3875032.1873333333 3553554874.2791666667 513513 355355 513513

5,5005322.3843333333 1781785058.1815 442442 178178 442442

5,5055464.0196666667 41415140.691 364364 4141 364364

4,2765093.858188185063.0186666667787787818818787787

4,8444875.298333333331315098.84133333332542543131254254

5,1434754.7513333333 3893895109.3855 3434 389389 3434

194,4254804.15733333333803804949.0036666667524524380380524524

4,4504672.66333333332232234773.9808333333324324223223324324

4,8924589.0193333333 3033034671.8853333333 221221 303303 221221

4,7294690.42 38384747.28866666671919 38381919

4,3284649.74933333333223224661.2063333333333333322322333333

829453337

143,42554,569170,76856,519MFE:Mean Forecast Error

MAD:Mean Absolute Deviation

1

3

4

5

6

plot

1

3

4

5

6

arranged source data

3

3

6

6

original data

3

3

6

6

m3m3H16-17H18-19

164,91210,1321,1301,9804158331424,4704,4704,4254,47076,573

4,6569,5011,0971,9603987931664,3974,3974,4504,39770,719

5,04310,3631,1342,0874628552365,0105,0104,8925,01071,515

5,35610,9221,1552,2125018951924,9124,9124,7424,7294,9124,74271,435

5,64411,4391,1472,1825219092534,6564,6564,6304,3284,6564,63067,811

5,34611,1401,1012,0745158082275,0435,0435,0805,0435,08063,514

4,0428,1049231,9804817881435,3565,3565,3875,3565,38759,687

4,7199,8879801,9114538222145,6445,6445,5005,6445,50057,569

5,13410,6581,0672,1195248953965,3465,3465,5055,3465,50559,089

174,4709,2101,0752,0034578711414,0424,0424,2764,0424,27658,985

4,3979,1471,0462,0314958931344,7194,7194,8444,7194,844

5,01010,3171,1092,2225439441955,1345,1345,1435,1345,143

4,91210,1321,1301,98041583314240004,4704,425

4,6569,5011,0971,9603987931664,3974,450

5,04310,3631,1342,0874628552365,0104,892

5,35610,9221,1552,2125018951924,9124,729

5,64411,4391,1472,1825219092534,6564,328

5,34611,1401,1012,0745158082275,043

4,0428,1049231,9804817881435,356

4,7199,8879801,9114538222145,644

5,13410,6581,0672,1195248953965,346

184,4709,2101,0752,0034578711414,042

4,3979,1471,0462,0314958931344,719

5,01010,3171,1092,2225439441955,134

4,7429,8431,0722,128507904129

4,6309,5961,0152,101478889175

5,08010,8301,1092,211500928208

5,38711,1171,1312,279513982198

5,50011,2471,1292,224491960228

5,50511,4101,0782,177494902235

4,2768,5679602,045463844200

4,84410,0489942,099465888226

5,14310,5661,0732,261520986332

194,4259,0781,0692,132493924158

4,4508,9671,0442,140496959146

4,8929,8941,0592,127516977185

4,7299,5231,0372,134481940137

4,3288,8449652,058444852159

H16-17

H18-19

H16-17

H18-19

m3m3

164,91210,1321,1301,980415833142

4,6569,5011,0971,960398793166

5,04310,3631,1342,087462855236

14,61029,9963,3616,0271,2752,481544

5,35610,9221,1552,212501895192

5,64411,4391,1472,182521909253

5,34611,1401,1012,074515808227

16,34633,5013,4036,4681,5372,612672

4,0428,1049231,980481788143

4,7199,8879801,911453822214

5,13410,6581,0672,119524895396

13,89528,6492,9706,0101,4582,505753

174,4709,2101,0752,003457871141

4,3979,1471,0462,031495893134

5,01010,3171,1092,222543944195

13,87728,6733,2306,2561,4952,708470

4,91210,1321,1301,980415833142

4,6569,5011,0971,960398793166

5,04310,3631,1342,087462855236

14,61029,9963,3616,0271,2752,481544

5,35610,9221,1552,212501895192

5,64411,4391,1472,182521909253

5,34611,1401,1012,074515808227

16,34633,5013,4036,4681,5372,612672

4,0428,1049231,980481788143

4,7199,8879801,911453822214

5,13410,6581,0672,119524895396

13,89528,6492,9706,0101,4582,505753

184,4709,2101,0752,003457871141

4,3979,1471,0462,031495893134

5,01010,3171,1092,222543944195

13,87728,6733,2306,2561,4952,708470

4,7429,8431,0722,128507904129

4,6309,5961,0152,101478889175

5,08010,8301,1092,211500928208

14,45230,2693,1966,4401,4852,721512

5,38711,1171,1312,279513982198

5,50011,2471,1292,224491960228

5,50511,4101,0782,177494902235

16,39233,7743,3386,6801,4982,845661

4,2768,5679602,045463844200

4,84410,0489942,099465888226

5,14310,5661,0732,261520986332

14,26429,1813,0276,4051,4482,719758

194,4259,0781,0692,132493924158

4,4508,9671,0442,140496959146

4,8929,8941,0592,127516977185

13,76727,9393,1726,3991,5052,860489

4,7299,5231,0372,134481940137

4,3288,8449652,058444852159

4,9124,6565,04314,6105,3565,6445,34616,3464,0424,7195,13413,8954,4704,3975,01013,8774,7424,6305,08014,4525,3875,5005,50516,3924,2764,8445,14314,2644,4254,4504,89213,7674,7294,328(4,500)13,557(4,700)(4,800)(4,800)14,300

5,0854,2734,91014,2684,9935,5165,57316,0824,1154,6115,12013,8454,8374,3675,03314,2374,9124,6565,04314,6105,3565,6445,34616,3464,0424,7195,13413,8954,4704,3975,01013,8774,7424,6305,08014,4525,3875,5005,50516,392

() 3.49.02.72.47.32.3 4.11.6 1.82.30.30.4 7.60.7 0.5 2.5 3.5 0.60.7 1.10.6 2.53.00.35.82.70.22.7 1.01.2 2.3 0.8 0.3 6.5 11.4 6.2 12.8 12.7 12.8 12.8

m310,1329,50110,36329,99610,92211,43911,14033,5018,1049,88710,65828,6499,2109,14710,31728,6739,8439,59610,83030,26911,11711,24711,41033,7748,56710,04810,56629,1819,0788,9679,89427,9399,5238,844(9,500)27,867(9,750)(10,000)(10,250)30,000

10,3918,93910,17629,50510,38011,42511,71633,5228,2929,63210,49728,42110,0998,93910,36529,40310,1329,50110,36329,99610,92211,43911,14033,5018,1049,88710,65828,6499,2109,14710,31728,6739,8439,59610,83030,26911,11711,24711,41033,774

() 2.56.31.81.75.20.1 4.9 0.1 2.32.71.50.8 8.82.3 0.5 2.5 2.81.04.50.91.8 1.72.40.85.71.6 0.91.9 1.4 2.0 4.1 2.6 3.3 7.8 12.3 7.9 12.3 11.1 10.2 11.2

m31,1301,0971,1343,3611,1551,1471,1013,4039239801,0672,9701,0751,0461,1093,2301,0721,0151,1093,1961,1311,1291,0783,3389609941,0733,0271,0691,0441,0593,1721,037965(900)2,902(925)(925)(875)2,725

1,1711,0901,1733,4341,1721,1981,1383,5089939821,0913,0661,1491,1081,1703,4271,1301,0971,1343,3611,1551,1471,1013,4039239801,0672,9701,0751,0461,1093,2301,0721,0151,1093,1961,1311,1291,0783,338

() 3.50.6 3.3 2.1 1.5 4.3 3.3 3.0 7.0 0.2 2.2 3.1 6.4 5.6 5.2 5.7 5.1 7.5 2.2 4.9 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.94.01.40.61.9 0.6 0.2 4.5 1.8 3.3 4.9 18.8 9.2 18.2 18.1 18.8 18.4

3 1,9801,9602,0876,0272,2122,1822,0746,4681,9801,9112,1196,0102,0032,0312,2226,2562,1282,1012,2116,4402,2792,2242,1776,6802,0452,0992,2616,4052,1322,1402,1276,3992,1342,058(1,950)6,142(1,950)(1,950)(1,900)5,800

2,1032,0132,2506,3662,1932,2252,0466,4641,9181,9272,0745,9192,0302,0542,1146,1981,9801,9602,0876,0272,2122,1822,0746,4681,9801,9112,1196,0102,0032,0312,2226,2562,1282,1012,2116,4402,2792,2242,1776,680

() 5.8 2.6 7.2 5.30.9 1.91.40.13.2 0.82.21.5 1.3 1.15.10.97.57.25.96.93.01.95.03.33.39.86.76.66.45.4 4.32.30.3 2.0 11.8 4.6 14.4 12.3 12.7 13.2

4153984621,2755015215151,5374814535241,4584574955431,4955074785001,4855134914941,4984634655201,4484934965161,505481444(450)1,375(420)(410)(410)1,240

5074804961,4834354644201,3194034174101,2304254824811,3884153984621,2755015215151,5374814535241,4584574955431,4955074785001,4855134914941,498

() 18.1 17.1 6.9 14.015.212.322.616.519.48.627.818.57.52.712.97.722.220.18.216.52.4 5.8 4.1 2.5 3.72.6 0.8 0.77.90.2 5.00.7 5.1 7.1 10.0 7.4 18.1 16.5 17.0 17.2

8337938552,4818959098082,6127888228952,5058718939442,7089048899282,7219829609022,8458448889862,7199249599772,860940852(770)2,563(830)(870)(800)2,500

8677878552,5098678377662,4707147128072,2338168158602,4918337938552,4818959098082,6127888228952,5058718939442,7089048899282,7219829609022,844

() 3.80.7 0.0 1.13.28.65.55.810.415.410.912.26.89.59.88.78.412.18.69.79.75.611.68.97.28.110.28.56.17.53.45.64.1 4.1 17.1 5.8 15.4 9.4 11.3 12.1

142166236544192253227672143214396753141134195470129175208512198228235661200226332758158146185489137159(205)501(200)(225)(230)655

206211254671256306300862205252423880173157180509142166236544192253227672143214396753141134195470129175208512198228235661

() 30.9 21.4 7.3 19.0 25.1 17.5 24.3 22.1 30.2 15.0 6.3 14.4 18.3 14.38.3 7.7 9.55.4 11.7 5.93.0 9.63.5 1.640.25.5 16.30.611.79.1 4.94.16.5 9.1 1.5 2.11.2 1.5 2.1 0.9

m3m3

http://www.mlit.go.jp/toukeijouhou/chojou/tukibetu_yosoku.htm

24-863

24-864

03(5253)8111

03(5253)8283

m3m3

1649121013211301980415833142

4656950110971960398793166

50431036311342087462855236

53561092211552212501895192

56441143911472182521909253

53461114011012074515808227

404281049231980481788143

471998879801911453822214

51341065810672119524895396

174470921010752003457871141

4397914710462031495893134

50101031711092222543944195

49121013211301980415833142

4656950110971960398793166

50431036311342087462855236

53561092211552212501895192

56441143911472182521909253

53461114011012074515808227

404281049231980481788143

471998879801911453822214

51341065810672119524895396

184470921010752003457871141

4397914710462031495893134

50101031711092222543944195

4742984310722128507904129

4630959610152101478889175

50801083011092211500928208

53871111711312279513982198

55001124711292224491960228

55051141010782177494902235

427685679602045463844200

4844100489942099465888226

51431056610732261520986332

194425907810692132493924158

4450896710442140496959146

4892989410592127516977185

4729952310372134481940137

432888449652058444852159

0.98990306060.76210932270.62783896170.42667669430.36544572910.5655948393

13456

164,912

4,656

5,0434870.1596666667

5,3565018.06866666674991.5985

5,6445347.47066666675174.502755122.0398

5,3465448.69466666675347.1945208.8755159.4271666667

4,0425010.61733333335096.941755086.09185014.343

4,7194702.4534937.7915021.41585024.9618333333

5,1344631.68033333334810.351254977.0425040.1875

174,4704774.4884591.286754742.30224892.5526666667

4,3974666.96366666674680.050754552.37724684.7083333333

5,0104625.624752.72654746.04364628.6501666667

4,9124772.98066666674697.2624784.61884773.7343333333

4,6564859.26733333334743.635254688.92944763.1155

5,0434870.15966666674905.12354803.44664747.8898333333

5,3565018.06866666674991.59854995.28184895.5246666667

5,6445347.47066666675174.502755122.03985103.369

5,3465448.69466666675347.1945208.8755159.4271666667

4,0425010.61733333335096.941755086.09185014.343

4,7194702.4534937.7915021.41585024.9618333333

5,1344631.68033333334810.351254977.0425040.1875

184,4704774.4884591.286754742.30224892.5526666667

4,3974666.96366666674680.050754552.37724684.7083333333

5,0104625.624752.72654746.04364628.650166666736

4,7424716.3714654.804754750.6534745.4295

4,6304793.97866666674694.668754649.75624730.4711666667

5,0804817.36233333334865.52554771.76824721.4911666667

5,3875032.18733333334959.730254969.78724874.2791666667

5,5005322.38433333335149.178755067.81485058.1815

5,5055464.01966666675368.056255220.35745140.691

4,2765093.855167.0965149.715063.0186666667

4,8444875.29833333335031.5125102.57645098.8413333333

5,1434754.75133333334942.33155053.89585109.3855

194,4254804.15733333334672.199254838.77384949.0036666667

4,4504672.66333333334715.6224627.76264773.9808333333

4,8924589.01933333334727.622254750.99744671.8853333333

4,7294690.424623.950754727.84684747.2886666667

4,3284649.74933333334599.8164564.76144661.2063333333

36

MFEMADMFEMAD

1363366

164,912

4,656

5,0434870.1596666667 173173 173173

5,3565018.0686666667 338338 338338

5,6445347.4706666667 296296 296296

5,3465448.69466666671021025159.4271666667 187187102102 187187

4,0425010.61733333339699695014.343973973969969973973

4,7194702.453 17175024.9618333333306306 1717306306

5,1344631.6803333333 5025025040.1875 9494 502502 9494

174,4704774.4883043044892.5526666667422422304304422422

4,3974666.96366666672702704684.7083333333288288270270288288

5,0104625.62 3843844628.6501666667 381381 384384 381381

4,9124772.9806666667 1391394773.7343333333 138138 139139 138138

4,6564859.26733333332042044763.1155108108204204108108

5,0434870.1596666667 1731734747.8898333333 295295 173173 295295

5,3565018.0686666667 3383384895.5246666667 460460 338338 460460

5,6445347.4706666667 2962965103.369 540540 296296 540540

5,3465448.69466666671021025159.4271666667 187187102102 187187

4,0425010.61733333339699695014.343973973969969973973

4,7194702.453 17175024.9618333333306306 1717306306

5,1344631.6803333333 5025025040.1875 9494 502502 9494

184,4704774.4883043044892.5526666667422422304304422422MAD

4,3974666.96366666672702704684.7083333333288288270270288288

5,0104625.62 3843844628.6501666667 381381 384384 381381

4,7424716.371 26264745.429533 262633

4,6304793.97866666671641644730.4711666667101101164164101101

5,0804817.3623333333 2632634721.4911666667 359359 263263 359359

5,3875032.1873333333 3553554874.2791666667 513513 355355 513513

5,5005322.3843333333 1781785058.1815 442442 178178 442442

5,5055464.0196666667 41415140.691 364364 4141 364364

4,2765093.858188185063.0186666667787787818818787787

4,8444875.298333333331315098.84133333332542543131254254

5,1434754.7513333333 3893895109.3855 3434 389389 3434

194,4254804.15733333333803804949.0036666667524524380380524524

4,4504672.66333333332232234773.9808333333324324223223324324

4,8924589.0193333333 3033034671.8853333333 221221 303303 221221

4,7294690.42 38384747.28866666671919 38381919

4,3284649.74933333333223224661.2063333333333333322322333333

829453337

143,42554,569170,76856,519MFE:Mean Forecast Error

MAD:Mean Absolute Deviation

1

3

4

5

6

plot

1

3

4

5

6

arranged source data

3

3

6

6

original data

3

3

6

6

m3m3H16-17H18-19

164,91210,1321,1301,9804158331424,4704,4704,4254,47076,573

4,6569,5011,0971,9603987931664,3974,3974,4504,39770,719

5,04310,3631,1342,0874628552365,0105,0104,8925,01071,515

5,35610,9221,1552,2125018951924,9124,9124,7424,7294,9124,74271,435

5,64411,4391,1472,1825219092534,6564,6564,6304,3284,6564,63067,811

5,34611,1401,1012,0745158082275,0435,0435,0805,0435,08063,514

4,0428,1049231,9804817881435,3565,3565,3875,3565,38759,687

4,7199,8879801,9114538222145,6445,6445,5005,6445,50057,569

5,13410,6581,0672,1195248953965,3465,3465,5055,3465,50559,089

174,4709,2101,0752,0034578711414,0424,0424,2764,0424,27658,985

4,3979,1471,0462,0314958931344,7194,7194,8444,7194,844

5,01010,3171,1092,2225439441955,1345,1345,1435,1345,143

4,91210,1321,1301,98041583314240004,4704,425

4,6569,5011,0971,9603987931664,3974,450

5,04310,3631,1342,0874628552365,0104,892

5,35610,9221,1552,2125018951924,9124,729

5,64411,4391,1472,1825219092534,6564,328

5,34611,1401,1012,0745158082275,043

4,0428,1049231,9804817881435,356

4,7199,8879801,9114538222145,644

5,13410,6581,0672,1195248953965,346

184,4709,2101,0752,0034578711414,042

4,3979,1471,0462,0314958931344,719

5,01010,3171,1092,2225439441955,134

4,7429,8431,0722,128507904129

4,6309,5961,0152,101478889175

5,08010,8301,1092,211500928208

5,38711,1171,1312,279513982198

5,50011,2471,1292,224491960228

5,50511,4101,0782,177494902235

4,2768,5679602,045463844200

4,84410,0489942,099465888226

5,14310,5661,0732,261520986332

194,4259,0781,0692,132493924158

4,4508,9671,0442,140496959146

4,8929,8941,0592,127516977185

4,7299,5231,0372,134481940137

4,3288,8449652,058444852159

H16-17

H18-19

H16-17

H18-19

m3m3

164,91210,1321,1301,980415833142

4,6569,5011,0971,960398793166

5,04310,3631,1342,087462855236

14,61029,9963,3616,0271,2752,481544

5,35610,9221,1552,212501895192

5,64411,4391,1472,182521909253

5,34611,1401,1012,074515808227

16,34633,5013,4036,4681,5372,612672

4,0428,1049231,980481788143

4,7199,8879801,911453822214

5,13410,6581,0672,119524895396

13,89528,6492,9706,0101,4582,505753

174,4709,2101,0752,003457871141

4,3979,1471,0462,031495893134

5,01010,3171,1092,222543944195

13,87728,6733,2306,2561,4952,708470

4,91210,1321,1301,980415833142

4,6569,5011,0971,960398793166

5,04310,3631,1342,087462855236

14,61029,9963,3616,0271,2752,481544

5,35610,9221,1552,212501895192

5,64411,4391,1472,182521909253

5,34611,1401,1012,074515808227

16,34633,5013,4036,4681,5372,612672

4,0428,1049231,980481788143

4,7199,8879801,911453822214

5,13410,6581,0672,119524895396

13,89528,6492,9706,0101,4582,505753

184,4709,2101,0752,003457871141

4,3979,1471,0462,031495893134

5,01010,3171,1092,222543944195

13,87728,6733,2306,2561,4952,708470

4,7429,8431,0722,128507904129

4,6309,5961,0152,101478889175

5,08010,8301,1092,211500928208

14,45230,2693,1966,4401,4852,721512

5,38711,1171,1312,279513982198

5,50011,2471,1292,224491960228

5,50511,4101,0782,177494902235

16,39233,7743,3386,6801,4982,845661

4,2768,5679602,045463844200

4,84410,0489942,099465888226

5,14310,5661,0732,261520986332

14,26429,1813,0276,4051,4482,719758

194,4259,0781,0692,132493924158

4,4508,9671,0442,140496959146

4,8929,8941,0592,127516977185

13,76727,9393,1726,3991,5052,860489

4,7299,5231,0372,134481940137

4,3288,8449652,058444852159

4,9124,6565,04314,6105,3565,6445,34616,3464,0424,7195,13413,8954,4704,3975,01013,8774,7424,6305,08014,4525,3875,5005,50516,3924,2764,8445,14314,2644,4254,4504,89213,7674,7294,328(4,500)13,557(4,700)(4,800)(4,800)14,300

5,0854,2734,91014,2684,9935,5165,57316,0824,1154,6115,12013,8454,8374,3675,03314,2374,9124,6565,04314,6105,3565,6445,34616,3464,0424,7195,13413,8954,4704,3975,01013,8774,7424,6305,08014,4525,3875,5005,50516,392

() 3.49.02.72.47.32.3 4.11.6 1.82.30.30.4 7.60.7 0.5 2.5 3.5 0.60.7 1.10.6 2.53.00.35.82.70.22.7 1.01.2 2.3 0.8 0.3 6.5 11.4 6.2 12.8 12.7 12.8 12.8

m310,1329,50110,36329,99610,92211,43911,14033,5018,1049,88710,65828,6499,2109,14710,31728,6739,8439,59610,83030,26911,11711,24711,41033,7748,56710,04810,56629,1819,0788,9679,89427,9399,5238,844(9,500)27,867(9,750)(10,000)(10,250)30,000

10,3918,93910,17629,50510,38011,42511,71633,5228,2929,63210,49728,42110,0998,93910,36529,40310,1329,50110,36329,99610,92211,43911,14033,5018,1049,88710,65828,6499,2109,14710,31728,6739,8439,59610,83030,26911,11711,24711,41033,774

() 2.56.31.81.75.20.1 4.9 0.1 2.32.71.50.8 8.82.3 0.5 2.5 2.81.04.50.91.8 1.72.40.85.71.6 0.91.9 1.4 2.0 4.1 2.6 3.3 7.8 12.3 7.9 12.3 11.1 10.2 11.2

m31,1301,0971,1343,3611,1551,1471,1013,4039239801,0672,9701,0751,0461,1093,2301,0721,0151,1093,1961,1311,1291,0783,3389609941,0733,0271,0691,0441,0593,1721,037965(900)2,902(925)(925)(875)2,725

1,1711,0901,1733,4341,1721,1981,1383,5089939821,0913,0661,1491,1081,1703,4271,1301,0971,1343,3611,1551,1471,1013,4039239801,0672,9701,0751,0461,1093,2301,0721,0151,1093,1961,1311,1291,0783,338

() 3.50.6 3.3 2.1 1.5 4.3 3.3 3.0 7.0 0.2 2.2 3.1 6.4 5.6 5.2 5.7 5.1 7.5 2.2 4.9 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.94.01.40.61.9 0.6 0.2 4.5 1.8 3.3 4.9 18.8 9.2 18.2 18.1 18.8 18.4

3 1,9801,9602,0876,0272,2122,1822,0746,4681,9801,9112,1196,0102,0032,0312,2226,2562,1282,1012,2116,4402,2792,2242,1776,6802,0452,0992,2616,4052,1322,1402,1276,3992,1342,058(1,950)6,142(1,950)(1,950)(1,900)5,800

2,1032,0132,2506,3662,1932,2252,0466,4641,9181,9272,0745,9192,0302,0542,1146,1981,9801,9602,0876,0272,2122,1822,0746,4681,9801,9112,1196,0102,0032,0312,2226,2562,1282,1012,2116,4402,2792,2242,1776,680

() 5.8 2.6 7.2 5.30.9 1.91.40.13.2 0.82.21.5 1.3 1.15.10.97.57.25.96.93.01.95.03.33.39.86.76.66.45.4 4.32.30.3 2.0 11.8 4.6 14.4 12.3 12.7 13.2

4153984621,2755015215151,5374814535241,4584574955431,4955074785001,4855134914941,4984634655201,4484934965161,505481444(450)1,375(420)(410)(410)1,240

5074804961,4834354644201,3194034174101,2304254824811,3884153984621,2755015215151,5374814535241,4584574955431,4955074785001,4855134914941,498

() 18.1 17.1 6.9 14.015.212.322.616.519.48.627.818.57.52.712.97.722.220.18.216.52.4 5.8 4.1 2.5 3.72.6 0.8 0.77.90.2 5.00.7 5.1 7.1 10.0 7.4 18.1 16.5 17.0 17.2

8337938552,4818959098082,6127888228952,5058718939442,7089048899282,7219829609022,8458448889862,7199249599772,860940852(770)2,563(830)(870)(800)2,500

8677878552,5098678377662,4707147128072,2338168158602,4918337938552,4818959098082,6127888228952,5058718939442,7089048899282,7219829609022,844

() 3.80.7 0.0 1.13.28.65.55.810.415.410.912.26.89.59.88.78.412.18.69.79.75.611.68.97.28.110.28.56.17.53.45.64.1 4.1 17.1 5.8 15.4 9.4 11.3 12.1

142166236544192253227672143214396753141134195470129175208512198228235661200226332758158146185489137159(205)501(200)(225)(230)655

206211254671256306300862205252423880173157180509142166236544192253227672143214396753141134195470129175208512198228235661

() 30.9 21.4 7.3 19.0 25.1 17.5 24.3 22.1 30.2 15.0 6.3 14.4 18.3 14.38.3 7.7 9.55.4 11.7 5.93.0 9.63.5 1.640.25.5 16.30.611.79.1 4.94.16.5 9.1 1.5 2.11.2 1.5 2.1 0.9

m3m3

http://www.mlit.go.jp/toukeijouhou/chojou/tukibetu_yosoku.htm

24-863

24-864

03(5253)8111

03(5253)8283

Graph3

4470.106

4396.739

5010.015

4912.1884742.359

4655.5994629.562

5042.6925080.166

5355.9155386.834

5643.8055500.153

5346.3645505.072

4041.6834276.325

4719.3124844.498

5134.0465143.431

4470.1064424.543

4396.7394450.016

5010.0154892.499

4912.1884728.745

4655.5994328.004

5042.692

5355.915

5643.805

5346.364

4041.683

4719.312

5134.046

H16-17

H18-19

m3m3

1649121013211301980415833142

4656950110971960398793166

50431036311342087462855236

53561092211552212501895192

56441143911472182521909253

53461114011012074515808227

404281049231980481788143

471998879801911453822214

51341065810672119524895396

174470921010752003457871141

4397914710462031495893134

50101031711092222543944195

49121013211301980415833142

4656950110971960398793166

50431036311342087462855236

53561092211552212501895192

56441143911472182521909253

53461114011012074515808227

404281049231980481788143

471998879801911453822214

51341065810672119524895396

184470921010752003457871141

4397914710462031495893134

50101031711092222543944195

4742984310722128507904129

4630959610152101478889175

50801083011092211500928208

53871111711312279513982198

55001124711292224491960228

55051141010782177494902235

427685679602045463844200

4844100489942099465888226

51431056610732261520986332

194425907810692132493924158

4450896710442140496959146

4892989410592127516977185

4729952310372134481940137

432888449652058444852159

0.98990306060.76210932270.62783896170.42667669430.36544572910.5655948393

13456

164,912

4,656

5,0434870.1596666667

5,3565018.06866666674991.5985

5,6445347.47066666675174.502755122.0398

5,3465448.69466666675347.1945208.8755159.4271666667

4,0425010.61733333335096.941755086.09185014.343

4,7194702.4534937.7915021.41585024.9618333333

5,1344631.68033333334810.351254977.0425040.1875

174,4704774.4884591.286754742.30224892.5526666667

4,3974666.96366666674680.050754552.37724684.7083333333

5,0104625.624752.72654746.04364628.6501666667

4,9124772.98066666674697.2624784.61884773.7343333333

4,6564859.26733333334743.635254688.92944763.1155

5,0434870.15966666674905.12354803.44664747.8898333333

5,3565018.06866666674991.59854995.28184895.5246666667

5,6445347.47066666675174.502755122.03985103.369

5,3465448.69466666675347.1945208.8755159.4271666667

4,0425010.61733333335096.941755086.09185014.343

4,7194702.4534937.7915021.41585024.9618333333

5,1344631.68033333334810.351254977.0425040.1875

184,4704774.4884591.286754742.30224892.5526666667

4,3974666.96366666674680.050754552.37724684.7083333333

5,0104625.624752.72654746.04364628.650166666736

4,7424716.3714654.804754750.6534745.4295

4,6304793.97866666674694.668754649.75624730.4711666667

5,0804817.36233333334865.52554771.76824721.4911666667

5,3875032.18733333334959.730254969.78724874.2791666667

5,5005322.38433333335149.178755067.81485058.1815

5,5055464.01966666675368.056255220.35745140.691

4,2765093.855167.0965149.715063.0186666667

4,8444875.29833333335031.5125102.57645098.8413333333

5,1434754.75133333334942.33155053.89585109.3855

194,4254804.15733333334672.199254838.77384949.0036666667

4,4504672.66333333334715.6224627.76264773.9808333333

4,8924589.01933333334727.622254750.99744671.8853333333

4,7294690.424623.950754727.84684747.2886666667

4,3284649.74933333334599.8164564.76144661.2063333333

36

MFEMADMFEMAD

1363366

164,912

4,656

5,0434870.1596666667 173173 173173

5,3565018.0686666667 338338 338338

5,6445347.4706666667 296296 296296

5,3465448.69466666671021025159.4271666667 187187102102 187187

4,0425010.61733333339699695014.343973973969969973973

4,7194702.453 17175024.9618333333306306 1717306306

5,1344631.6803333333 5025025040.1875 9494 502502 9494

174,4704774.4883043044892.5526666667422422304304422422

4,3974666.96366666672702704684.7083333333288288270270288288

5,0104625.62 3843844628.6501666667 381381 384384 381381

4,9124772.9806666667 1391394773.7343333333 138138 139139 138138

4,6564859.26733333332042044763.1155108108204204108108

5,0434870.1596666667 1731734747.8898333333 295295 173173 295295

5,3565018.0686666667 3383384895.5246666667 460460 338338 460460

5,6445347.4706666667 2962965103.369 540540 296296 540540

5,3465448.69466666671021025159.4271666667 187187102102 187187

4,0425010.61733333339699695014.343973973969969973973

4,7194702.453 17175024.9618333333306306 1717306306

5,1344631.6803333333 5025025040.1875 9494 502502 9494

184,4704774.4883043044892.5526666667422422304304422422MAD

4,3974666.96366666672702704684.7083333333288288270270288288

5,0104625.62 3843844628.6501666667 381381 384384 381381

4,7424716.371 26264745.429533 262633

4,6304793.97866666671641644730.4711666667101101164164101101

5,0804817.3623333333 2632634721.4911666667 359359 263263 359359

5,3875032.1873333333 3553554874.2791666667 513513 355355 513513

5,5005322.3843333333 1781785058.1815 442442 178178 442442

5,5055464.0196666667 41415140.691 364364 4141 364364

4,2765093.858188185063.0186666667787787818818787787

4,8444875.298333333331315098.84133333332542543131254254

5,1434754.7513333333 3893895109.3855 3434 389389 3434

194,4254804.15733333333803804949.0036666667524524380380524524

4,4504672.66333333332232234773.9808333333324324223223324324

4,8924589.0193333333 3033034671.8853333333 221221 303303 221221

4,7294690.42 38384747.28866666671919 38381919

4,3284649.74933333333223224661.2063333333333333322322333333

829453337

143,42554,569170,76856,519MFE:Mean Forecast Error

MAD:Mean Absolute Deviation

1

3

4

5

6

plot

1

3

4

5

6

arranged source data

3

3

6

6

original data

3

3

6

6

m3m3H16-17H18-19

164,91210,1321,1301,9804158331424,4704,4704,4254,47076,573

4,6569,5011,0971,9603987931664,3974,3974,4504,39770,719

5,04310,3631,1342,0874628552365,0105,0104,8925,01071,515

5,35610,9221,1552,2125018951924,9124,9124,7424,7294,9124,74271,435

5,64411,4391,1472,1825219092534,6564,6564,6304,3284,6564,63067,811

5,34611,1401,1012,0745158082275,0435,0435,0805,0435,08063,514

4,0428,1049231,9804817881435,3565,3565,3875,3565,38759,687

4,7199,8879801,9114538222145,6445,6445,5005,6445,50057,569

5,13410,6581,0672,1195248953965,3465,3465,5055,3465,50559,089

174,4709,2101,0752,0034578711414,0424,0424,2764,0424,27658,985

4,3979,1471,0462,0314958931344,7194,7194,8444,7194,844

5,01010,3171,1092,2225439441955,1345,1345,1435,1345,143

4,91210,1321,1301,98041583314240004,4704,425

4,6569,5011,0971,9603987931664,3974,450

5,04310,3631,1342,0874628552365,0104,892

5,35610,9221,1552,2125018951924,9124,729

5,64411,4391,1472,1825219092534,6564,328

5,34611,1401,1012,0745158082275,043

4,0428,1049231,9804817881435,356

4,7199,8879801,9114538222145,644

5,13410,6581,0672,1195248953965,346

184,4709,2101,0752,0034578711414,042

4,3979,1471,0462,0314958931344,719

5,01010,3171,1092,2225439441955,134

4,7429,8431,0722,128507904129

4,6309,5961,0152,101478889175

5,08010,8301,1092,211500928208

5,38711,1171,1312,279513982198

5,50011,2471,1292,224491960228

5,50511,4101,0782,177494902235

4,2768,5679602,045463844200

4,84410,0489942,099465888226

5,14310,5661,0732,261520986332

194,4259,0781,0692,132493924158

4,4508,9671,0442,140496959146

4,8929,8941,0592,127516977185

4,7299,5231,0372,134481940137

4,3288,8449652,058444852159

H16-17

H18-19

H16-17

H18-19

m3m3

164,91210,1321,1301,980415833142

4,6569,5011,0971,960398793166

5,04310,3631,1342,087462855236

14,61029,9963,3616,0271,2752,481544

5,35610,9221,1552,212501895192

5,64411,4391,1472,182521909253

5,34611,1401,1012,074515808227

16,34633,5013,4036,4681,5372,612672

4,0428,1049231,980481788143

4,7199,8879801,911453822214

5,13410,6581,0672,119524895396

13,89528,6492,9706,0101,4582,505753

174,4709,2101,0752,003457871141

4,3979,1471,0462,031495893134

5,01010,3171,1092,222543944195

13,87728,6733,2306,2561,4952,708470

4,91210,1321,1301,980415833142

4,6569,5011,0971,960398793166

5,04310,3631,1342,087462855236

14,61029,9963,3616,0271,2752,481544

5,35610,9221,1552,212501895192

5,64411,4391,1472,182521909253

5,34611,1401,1012,074515808227

16,34633,5013,4036,4681,5372,612672

4,0428,1049231,980481788143

4,7199,8879801,911453822214

5,13410,6581,0672,119524895396

13,89528,6492,9706,0101,4582,505753

184,4709,2101,0752,003457871141

4,3979,1471,0462,031495893134

5,01010,3171,1092,222543944195

13,87728,6733,2306,2561,4952,708470

4,7429,8431,0722,128507904129

4,6309,5961,0152,101478889175

5,08010,8301,1092,211500928208

14,45230,2693,1966,4401,4852,721512

5,38711,1171,1312,279513982198

5,50011,2471,1292,224491960228

5,50511,4101,0782,177494902235

16,39233,7743,3386,6801,4982,845661

4,2768,5679602,045463844200

4,84410,0489942,099465888226

5,14310,5661,0732,261520986332

14,26429,1813,0276,4051,4482,719758

194,4259,0781,0692,132493924158

4,4508,9671,0442,140496959146

4,8929,8941,0592,127516977185

13,76727,9393,1726,3991,5052,860489

4,7299,5231,0372,134481940137

4,3288,8449652,058444852159

4,9124,6565,04314,6105,3565,6445,34616,3464,0424,7195,13413,8954,4704,3975,01013,8774,7424,6305,08014,4525,3875,5005,50516,3924,2764,8445,14314,2644,4254,4504,89213,7674,7294,328(4,500)13,557(4,700)(4,800)(4,800)14,300

5,0854,2734,91014,2684,9935,5165,57316,0824,1154,6115,12013,8454,8374,3675,03314,2374,9124,6565,04314,6105,3565,6445,34616,3464,0424,7195,13413,8954,4704,3975,01013,8774,7424,6305,08014,4525,3875,5005,50516,392

() 3.49.02.72.47.32.3 4.11.6 1.82.30.30.4 7.60.7 0.5 2.5 3.5 0.60.7 1.10.6 2.53.00.35.82.70.22.7 1.01.2 2.3 0.8 0.3 6.5 11.4 6.2 12.8 12.7 12.8 12.8

m310,1329,50110,36329,99610,92211,43911,14033,5018,1049,88710,65828,6499,2109,14710,31728,6739,8439,59610,83030,26911,11711,24711,41033,7748,56710,04810,56629,1819,0788,9679,89427,9399,5238,844(9,500)27,867(9,750)(10,000)(10,250)30,000

10,3918,93910,17629,50510,38011,42511,71633,5228,2929,63210,49728,42110,0998,93910,36529,40310,1329,50110,36329,99610,92211,43911,14033,5018,1049,88710,65828,6499,2109,14710,31728,6739,8439,59610,83030,26911,11711,24711,41033,774

() 2.56.31.81.75.20.1 4.9 0.1 2.32.71.50.8 8.82.3 0.5 2.5 2.81.04.50.91.8 1.72.40.85.71.6 0.91.9 1.4 2.0 4.1 2.6 3.3 7.8 12.3 7.9 12.3 11.1 10.2 11.2

m31,1301,0971,1343,3611,1551,1471,1013,4039239801,0672,9701,0751,0461,1093,2301,0721,0151,1093,1961,1311,1291,0783,3389609941,0733,0271,0691,0441,0593,1721,037965(900)2,902(925)(925)(875)2,725

1,1711,0901,1733,4341,1721,1981,1383,5089939821,0913,0661,1491,1081,1703,4271,1301,0971,1343,3611,1551,1471,1013,4039239801,0672,9701,0751,0461,1093,2301,0721,0151,1093,1961,1311,1291,0783,338

() 3.50.6 3.3 2.1 1.5 4.3 3.3 3.0 7.0 0.2 2.2 3.1 6.4 5.6 5.2 5.7 5.1 7.5 2.2 4.9 2.1 1.6 2.1 1.94.01.40.61.9 0.6 0.2 4.5 1.8 3.3 4.9 18.8 9.2 18.2 18.1 18.8 18.4

3 1,9801,9602,0876,0272,2122,1822,0746,4681,9801,9112,1196,0102,0032,0312,2226,2562,1282,1012,2116,4402,2792,2242,1776,6802,0452,0992,2616,4052,1322,1402,1276,3992,1342,058(1,950)6,142(1,950)(1,950)(1,900)5,800

2,1032,0132,2506,3662,1932,2252,0466,4641,9181,9272,0745,9192,0302,0542,1146,1981,9801,9602,0876,0272,2122,1822,0746,4681,9801,9112,1196,0102,0032,0312,2226,2562,1282,1012,2116,4402,2792,2242,1776,680

() 5.8 2.6 7.2 5.30.9 1.91.40.13.2 0.82.21.5 1.3 1.15.10.97.57.25.96.93.01.95.03.33.39.86.76.66.45.4 4.32.30.3 2.0 11.8 4.6 14.4 12.3 12.7 13.2

4153984621,2755015215151,5374814535241,4584574955431,4955074785001,4855134914941,4984634655201,4484934965161,505481444(450)1,375(420)(410)(410)1,240

5074804961,4834354644201,3194034174101,2304254824811,3884153984621,2755015215151,5374814535241,4584574955431,4955074785001,4855134914941,498

() 18.1 17.1 6.9 14.015.212.322.616.519.48.627.818.57.52.712.97.722.220.18.216.52.4 5.8 4.1 2.5 3.72.6 0.8 0.77.90.2 5.00.7 5.1 7.1 10.0 7.4 18.1 16.5 17.0 17.2

8337938552,4818959098082,6127888228952,5058718939442,7089048899282,7219829609022,8458448889862,7199249599772,860940852(770)2,563(830)(870)(800)2,500

8677878552,5098678377662,4707147128072,2338168158602,4918337938552,4818959098082,6127888228952,5058718939442,7089048899282,7219829609022,844

() 3.80.7 0.0 1.13.28.65.55.810.415.410.912.26.89.59.88.78.412.18.69.79.75.611.68.97.28.110.28.56.17.53.45.64.1 4.1 17.1 5.8 15.4 9.4 11.3 12.1

142166236544192253227672143214396753141134195470129175208512198228235661200226332758158146185489137159(205)501(200)(225)(230)655

206211254671256306300862205252423880173157180509142166236544192253227672143214396753141134195470129175208512198228235661

() 30.9 21.4 7.3 19.0 25.1 17.5 24.3 22.1 30.2 15.0 6.3 14.4 18.3 14.38.3 7.7 9.55.4 11.7 5.93.0 9.63.5 1.640.25.5 16.30.611.79.1 4.94.16.5 9.1 1.5 2.11.2 1.5 2.1 0.9

m3m3

http://www.mlit.go.jp/toukeijouhou/chojou/tukibetu_yosoku.htm

24-863

24-864

03(5253)8111

03(5253)8283

Graph4

4470.106

4396.739

5010.015

4912.1884742.359

4655.5994629.562

5042.6925080.166

5355.9155386.834

5643.8055500.153

5346.3645505.072

4041.6834276.325

4719.3124844.498

5134.0465143.431

4470.1064424.543

4396.7394450.016

5010.0154892.499

4912.1884728.745

4655.5994328.004

5042.692

5355.915

5643.805

5346.364

4041.683

4719.312

5134.046

H16-17

H18-19

m3m3

1649121013211301980415833142

4656950110971960398793166

50431036311342087462855236

53561092211552212501895192

56441143911472182521909253

53461114011012074515808227

404281049231980481788143

471998879801911453822214

51341065810672119524895396

174470921010752003457871141

4397914710462031495893134

50101031711092222543944195

49121013211301980415833142

4656950110971960398793166

50431036311342087462855236

53561092211552212501895192

56441143911472182521909253

53461114011012074515808227

404281049231980481788143

471998879801911453822214

51341065810672119524895396

184470921010752003457871141

4397914710462031495893134

50101031711092222543944195

4742984310722128507904129

4630959610152101478889175

50801083011092211500928208

53871111711312279513982198

55001124711292224491960228

55051141010782177494902235

427685679602045463844200

4844100489942099465888226

51431056610732261520986332

194425907810692132493924158

4450896710442140496959146

4892989410592127516977185

4729952310372134481940137

432888449652058444852159

0.98990306060.76210932270.62783896170.42667669430.36544572910.5655948393

13456

164,912

4,656

5,0434870.1596666667

5,3565018.06866666674991.5985

5,6445347.47066666675174.502755122.0398

5,3465448.69466666675347.1945208.8755159.4271666667

4,0425010.61733333335096.941755086.09185014.343

4,7194702.4534937.7915021.41585024.9618333333

5,1344631.68033333334810.351254977.0425040.1875

174,4704774.4884591.286754742.30224892.5526666667

4,3974666.96366666674680.050754552.37724684.7083333333

5,0104625.624752.72654746.04364628.6501666667

4,9124772.98066666674697.2624784.61884773.7343333333

4,6564859.26733333334743.635254688.92944763.1155

5,0434870.15966666674905.12354803.44664747.8898333333

5,3565018.06866666674991.59854995.28184895.5246666667

5,6445347.47066666675174.502755122.03985103.369

5,3465448.69466666675347.1945208.8755159.4271666667

4,0425010.61733333335096.941755086.09185014.343

4,7194702.4534937.7915021.41585024.9618333333

5,1344631.68033333334810.351254977.0425040.1875

184,4704774.4884591.286754742.30224892.5526666667

4,3974666.96366666674680.050754552.37724684.7083333333

5,0104625.624752.72654746.04364628.650166666736

4,7424716.3714654.804754750.6534745.4295

4,6304793.97866666674694.668754649.75624730.4711666667

5,0804817.36233333334865.52554771.76824721.4911666667

5,3875032.18733333334959.730254969.78724874.2791666667

5,5005322.38433333335149.178755067.81485058.1815

5,5055464.01966666675368.056255220.35745140.691

4,2765093.855167.0965149.715063.0186666667

4,8444875.29833333335031.5125102.57645098.8413333333

5,1434754.75133333334942.33155053.89585109.3855

194,4254804.15733333334672.199254838.77384949.0036666667

4,4504672.66333333334715.6224627.76264773.9808333333

4,8924589.01933333334727.622254750.99744671.8853333333

4,7294690.424623.950754727.84684747.2886666667

4,3284649.74933333334599.8164564.76144661.2063333333

36

MFEMADMFEMAD

1363366

164,912

4,656

5,0434870.1596666667 173173 173173

5,3565018.0686666667 338338 338338

5,6445347.4706666667 296296 296296

5,3465448.69466666671021025159.4271666667 187187102102 187187

4,0425010.61733333339699695014.343973973969969973973

4,7194702.453 17175024.9618333333306306 1717306306

5,1344631.6803333333 5025025040.1875 9494 502502 9494

174,4704774.4883043044892.5526666667422422304304422422

4,3974666.96366666672702704684.7083333333288288270270288288

5,0104625.62 3843844628.6501666667 381381 384384 381381

4,9124772.9806666667 1391394773.7343333333 138138 139139 138138

4,6564859.26733333332042044763.1155108108204204108108

5,0434870.1596666667 1731734747.8898333333 295295 173173 295295

5,3565018.0686666667 3383384895.5246666667 460460 338338 460460

5,6445347.4706666667 2962965103.369 540540 296296 540540

5,3465448.69466666671021025159.4271666667 187187102102 187187

4,0425010.61733333339699695014.343973973969969973973

4,7194702.453 17175024.9618333333306306 1717306306

5,1344631.6803333333 5025025040.1875 9494 502502 9494

184,4704774.4883043044892.5526666667422422304304422422MAD

4,3974666.96366666672702704684.7083333333288288270270288288

5,0104625.62 3843844628.6501666667 381381 384384 381381

4,7424716.371 26264745.429533 262633

4,6304793.97866666671641644730.4711666667101101164164101101

5,0804817.3623333333 2632634721.4911666667 359359 263263 359359

5,3875032.1873333333 3553554874.2791666667 513513 355355 513513

5,5005322.3843333333 1781785058.1815 442442 178178 442442

5,5055464.0196666667 41415140.691 364364 4141 364364

4,2765093.858188185063.0186666667787787818818787787

4,8444875.298333333331315098.84133333332542543131254254

5,1434754.7513333333 3893895109.3855 3434 389389 3434

194,4254804.15733333333803804949.0036666667524524380380524524

4,4504672.66333333332232234773.9808333333324324223223324324

4,8924589.0193333333 3033034671.8853333333 221221 303303 221221

4,7294690.42 38384747.28866666671919 38381919

4,3284649.74933333333223224661.2063333333333333322322333333

829453337

143,42554,569170,76856,519MFE:Mean Forecast Error

MAD:Mean Absolute Deviation

1

3

4

5

6

plot

1

3

4

5

6

arranged source data

3

3

6

6

original data

3

3

6

6

m3m3H16-17H18-19

164,91210,1321,1301,9804158331424,4704,4704,4254,47076,573

4,6569,5011,0971,9603987931664,3974,3974,4504,39770,719

5,04310,3631,1342,0874628552365,0105,0104,8925,01071,515

5,35610,9221,1552,2125018951924,9124,9124,7424,7294,9124,74271,435

5,64411,4391,1472,1825219092534,6564,6564,6304,3284,6564,63067,811

5,34611,1401,1012,0745158082275,0435,0435,0805,0435,08063,514

4,0428,1049231,9804817881435,3565,3565,3875,3565,38759,687

4,7199,8879801,9114538222145,6445,6445,5005,6445,50057,569

5,13410,6581,0672,1195