1

1 6IP 2 VOD 3 .

1.1 1.1.1 5050

1. 2. 3. ABC

1.1.2 1 ABABBA

AB2 ABABAB ABAB

A{} B{} C{} D{}ABCD

A{}B{},E{}, ABE EABABAB EAB2A1{1}A2{2}B{1} 112 BA1 A2

3 ABABABC{},D{},F{}CDFFCDCDFFCD4 ABABAB

ABABAB ABABABABBABABAB

ABBA n

1.1.3

1

[] A1{}A2{}A1A2 B{}C{},D{}E{}BA1A2 ,D EA1A2BCBDCDCECE

1.2 1.2.1 nAmmA Afn(A) nAfn(A)p(0p1)ApAP(A)p P(A)1 P(A)0

1 AAm0mn

2 3

[]

1.2.2 nnAnkAP(A)kn1C{4,5,6}D{4,6}66C3D2P(C)36P(D)26

21000012101001n10000k1210100113 P(A)kn113100000.0113 [] n k P(A)kn

35232 52C2510 C221P11/100.1 C12C136P26100.6

4 4332A1{2}A2{3}A1A2A{2}AA1A2A1A2 ,

[2] P(BA)P(B)P(A) P(BA)P(B)P(A)P(BA)P(B)P(A)

19923A{3}B{2} BA{23} A={3,6,9},B={2,4,6,8},B-A={2,4,8}, P(A)3/9P(B)4/9P(BA)3/94/93/9AA

1.3 1.3.1 [] AB P(AB)P(A)P(B)1 16A={1}B={6}AB16ABP(AB)P(A)P(B)[1] AA

2. 20.80.30.4 A1{}A2{}, P(A1A2)0.8 10.80.2

[200313] P(A)=0.8P( )=0.5P(AB)

[] AB P(AB)P(A)P(B)P(AB)

3 0.820.740.63A={}B={}AB {}AB{}P(AB)P(A)P(B)P(AB) 0.820.740.630.93

1.3.2 BA B={}A={}133/47/103/10P(A|B)

[] P(A)0P(B)0A,B P(AB)P(A|B)P(B) P(AB)P(B|A)P(A) 8 1064A={}B={}AB{}954P(B|A) P(AB)P(B|A)P(A)

10109

B={}A={}

1.3.3 [] A

P(A)10 1022 A={} B={} ={}

12 415%,20%,30%,35%,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.021 A={}Ak={k}P(A1)=15P(A2)=20P(A3)=30P(A4)=35P(A|A1)=0.05P(A|A2)=0.04P(A|A3)=0.03P(A|A4)=0.02

1.4 1.4.1 532() ABP(AB)P(A)P(B)

2 1A1={11}A2={21}A1,A2A={1}AA1A2P(A)P(AB)P(A)P(B)3 0.70.8A={}B={}C={}D={}CABDABABP(C)P(AB)P(A)P(B)0.70.80.56P(D)P(AB)P(A)P(B)P(AB)0.94

[200314] 0.010.02A1={}A2={}A1A2A={} A=A1A2 P(A)10.010.99 P(B)10.020.98 A1A2 P(A)P(A1A2)P(A1)P(A2)0.990.98 0.97020.9702

[] AB

ABCP(ABC)P(A)P(B)P(C)P(AB)P(A)P(B) P(AC)P(A)P(C)P(BC)P(B)P(C)

1.4. n ApnAkP(Ak)0.6532 P(3)

P(2)1-P(0)-P(1)

P.12 34 P.24 6 P.37 347,9 P.44 46 P.65 2,3 3