ABC AAssume

B: Borrow

C: Criticize

The capacity to understand, interpret, criticize, and appreciate models is essential to all.

The three most fundamental ideas in mathematical modeling are transience, permanence, and optimality.

05BDVD

1DVD50% DVD P(> 0.5 ) 0.95 .

2 1000

395%DVD 136

rj qj 2004 B

2005B DVD

() 1. 2. 3. 4.

Valuable idea

97 04

CMCM96A()

CMCM05B(DVD) 1 ,DVD1200006250B (n,p), N(np,npq), 0.956315

2 60401.6 395DVD

99 98

98

960.81/80%

9570%

94B

H49

95MCM A

Rabbit , Turtle and Hunter

96MCM B

94CMCMB 5123456535 541

6060

+=

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)