<4D6963726F736F667420576F7264202D20353937BBAAC8F3CEA2B5E7D7D32D77777A266C73792DCAD7B7A2B1A8B8E6313430343130B7B1CCE52E646F63>
www.mystockhk.com
1231 08 09 10 11 12 3, 118, 692 3, 036, 881 3, 670, 828 4, 191, 603
4, 697, 259
4. 25% - 2. 62% 20. 87% 14. 19% 12. 06% ( 382, 919) ( 182, 377)
209, 419 360, 784 412, 924
- 6. 334 - 2. 350 2. 359 4. 064 4. 651
- 258. 37% - 62. 90% - 200. 37% 72. 28% 14. 45% 0.39 NA - 16. 6 16.
5 9. 6 8. 4 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 NA NA NA NA NA 0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
86755-33331811
86755-33331812
[email protected]
0.43
17.7% 12 27.5%
IC
30%
46.97
2012
1
0.55 DCF
WACC12% 1%, 0.55
2011 4.06 13.8
0.425 29.4 1 =0 88
2010 4
- 2 -
31.8%19.4%20.6% 26.2%
1: 2:2009
8 0.11
08 7.42
09 1.9 5.6 2010 1
7000 2000-3000 3
2011
DMOSBCD
2003-2008 CAGR 24%
2008
19%
3: 2003 -2008 4: 2008
CCID 08 31.2
DC-DC AC-DC LDO WLED
LED
LCD
MCU MCU
5: 03-08 6: 2008
CCID 08 7.3
34
34 ToshibaIntersil
MPSCirrus-logic IBMBOSCH 2003 -2008
2010 4
- 4 -
CCID
4-6 191
30
CCID
09
2560
2008 2009
2008
9: 2009 1-12 10: 1986 -2009
14.5%
-23.3%
-18.5%
-13.6%
27.5%
47.8%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 -45%
-30%
-15%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
09 3Q 86.5% 2008
11: 97 1Q-09 4Q 12: 97 1Q-09 4Q
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
B/B 2009 7
BB 1 2010 1 1.2
2010 2010
2009 57%
13: 09 1 -10 1 BB 14: 10
2008 2009 2010F
1 6,757 3,518 5,000 42% 2 5,197 4,515 4,900 9%
3 1,877 2,687 4,800 79% 4 2,210 950 1,950 105%
5 AMD 621 466 1,900 308%
6 2,900 855 1,840 115% 7 2,300 800 1,715 114%
8 695 640 1,415 121% 9 349 551 1,350 145%
10 890 535 1,000 87% 23,796 15,517 25,870 67%
SEMI SEMI
0.0
0 .2
0 .4
0 .6
0 .8
1 .0
1 .2
1 .4
( ) ( B / B R a t i o )
2010 4
- 6 -
IC
2010 2011 9.6% 10.8%
IC IC
10%
PC
60% Gartner2009 8 PC
PC
60%
PC 32%
27%
15%
4%
22%
3C
2006-2013 CAGR 16.0% 43.2%
8.9%
2006-2013 CAGR 33.9%
18: 2006-2013
Gartner,2009 8 Gartner,2009 8
07 2008 3217.7
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
3.0%6.5% 6.7%
981 HK
ASM522 HK
2002 -2008 19.1%
3355 HK
2878 HK Fabless
TCL
19:
981 HK USD 1,353,711 181.5 237.3% NA 0.9 100
522 HK ASM HKD 5,258,413 293.7 267.0% 31.3 9.6 78.1 21.9
597 HK HKD 3,118,692 31.6 172.4% NA 0.7 30.7 22.2
19.2 25.9 2.0
3355 HK RMB 932,581 6.4 426.6% NA 0.6 100
2878 HK USD 92,813 17.4 636.8% NA 1.5 36.0 64.0
HSI 186.9% 39
2010 4
- 8 -
6.5%-7%
20:
/
2008
IC ——
IC IC IC
IC
LED
IC IC IC
IC IC
IC
IC 2/8 IC
IC
IC IC 1-2
——
“
2.
IC
2000
3. 0.13 0.35 IC
2007 4.6 6.7
7708 8.7 /
2010 4
- 10 -
23: IC IC 24: IC IC
1777.2 1830.8
Intersil2008
199% 3.3
10
LED
25: 2009 26:
57%
0%
17%
7%
11%
1%
7%
2010 4
- 11 -
2012 12.4 2009-2012 CAGR
8.7%
LED
LED CAGR
18.3%2012 9.8 20.8%
STATS ChipPAC
2009-2012
CAGR 18.3% 2012 10.4 22.1%
13.7
2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 09-12CAGR
3,118,692 3,036,881 3,670,828 4,191,603 4,697,259 15.6% 4.2% -2.6%
20.9% 14.2% 12.1%
956,580 964,572 1,193,400 1,228,500 1,239,300 8.7%
6(/ 90 90 90 90 90
70% 75% 85% 88% 85%
1,265 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,350
-7.5% 0.8% 23.7% 2.9% 0.9%
30.7% 31.8% 32.5% 29.3% 26.4%
692,081 589,210 707,052 848,462 975,732 18.3%
-9.2% -14.9% 20.0% 20.0% 15.0%
22.2% 19.4% 19.3% 20.2% 20.8%
599,719 625,561 750,673 900,808 1,035,929 18.3%
43.0% 4.3% 20.0% 20.0% 15.0%
19.2% 20.6% 20.4% 21.5% 22.1%
808,067 795,250 954,300 1,145,160 1,374,192 20.0%
12.6% -1.6% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
25.9% 26.2% 26.0% 27.3% 29.3%
62,245 62,288 65,402 68,673 72,106 5.0%
7.8% 0.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
2.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5%
2010 4
- 12 -
PM ATO
RNOA
PM 12 PM 10.6%
2009 -3.9% 2012 11.6%
RNOA
28: 2008 -2012 ROCE RNOA
2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E ROCE -13.7% -7.0% 7.5% 11.7% 11.9% RNOA
-8.0% -3.9% 6.6% 10.3% 11.6% PM -10.1% -4.6% 6.5% 9.0% 8.9% ATO 0.8
0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 NBC 4.8% 2.6% 3.7% 3.4% 5.6% FLEV 51.0% 26.3% 22.9%
9.9% -1.5% SPREAD -12.8% -6.5% 2.9% 7.0% 5.9% OLLEV 29.2% 30.1%
29.6% 31.8% 34.2%
ROCE RNOA 8 08 7.42 09 5.64
CAPEX
29: 2008 -2012
2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 110 113 110 110 110
116 103 105 105 105
211 196 180 180 180
15 20 35 35 35
/ -1.2 -2.4 2.9 2.6 2
/CAPEX 0.6 3.3 1.3 1.4 1.3
30: 2008 -2012
2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E (%) 56.8 52.5 50.8 49.0 47.4
-4.1 -4.2 2.8 4.9 5.9
/ 33.4 36.4 37.2 40.0 43.4
/ 60.0 57.4 56.5 53.8 50.7
0.55
31: DCF
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E CFO 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% CAPEX (500,000)
(450,000) (450,000) (350,000) (350,000) (350,000) (350,000)
(350,000) (350,000) (350,000) (350,000)
2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
2020E
CFO 600,947 895,724 910,751 947,182 985,069 1,004,770 1,024,866
1,045,363 1,066,270 1,087,596 1,098,472 CAPEX (500,000) (450,000)
(450,000) (350,000) (350,000) (350,000) (350,000) (350,000)
(350,000) (350,000) (350,000) 100,947 445,724 460,751 597,182
635,069 654,770 674,866 695,363 716,270 737,596 748,472 2010
100,947 397,968 367,308 425,062 403,598 371,534 341,908 314,547
289,289 265,984 2,453,694 6,872,329
WACC 12% 1% 0 8,789,431
5,731,840 786,897 90,252 4,854,691 8,789,431 DCF 0.55 DCF
0.49
2011 4.06 0.55 PE 13.5
13.5 PE 0.425
29.4%
005930 KS 856,000 35,696 58,102 81,721 81,973 24. 0 14. 7 10. 5 10.
4 31. 9% I NTC US 22.55 0.95 0.68 1.66 1.84 23. 8 33. 1 13. 6 12. 3
24. 7% 2330 TT 63.00 3.90 3.38 4.82 5.10 16. 2 18. 6 13. 1 12. 4 9.
4% 6502 JP 495.00 (105.55) (10.32) 22.16 32.13 NA NA 22. 3 15. 4 NA
AMD US AMD 9.30 (1.72) (1.44) (0.00) 0.26 NA NA NA 35. 5 NA
000660 KS 28,000 (8,829) (823) 3,496 3,258 NA NA 8. 0 8. 6 NA MU US
10.73 (1.27) (2.27) 0.89 1.07 NA NA 12. 0 10. 0 NA
2303 TT 16.95 (0.22) 0.23 1.23 1.42 NA 75. 3 13. 7 12. 0 NA 21. 3
35. 5 13. 3 14. 6
49
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
3,118,692 3,036,881 3,670,828 4,191,603 4,697,259 581,296 538,413
917,707 1,152,691 1,291,746 (%) 18.64% 17.73% 25.00% 27.50% 27.50%
142,757 207,845 195,000 215,000 235,000 EBITDA (%) 6.16% 18.90%
25.98% 26.48% 23.92% (768,290) (701,038) (789,228) (867,662)
(967,635) (%) -12.28% -6.01% 5.70% 8.61% 8.79% (44,237) 45,220
323,479 500,029 559,111 (92,293) (43,747) (75,646) (73,066)
(70,444)
(229,147) 19,716 0 0 0 /(%) 24.64% 23.08% 21.50% 20.70% 20.60%
(365,677) (168,811) 247,833 426,963 488,667 (%) -4.72% -8.04%
15.50% 15.50% 15.50% (17,242) (13,566) (38,414) (66,179) (75,743)
(%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% (382,919) (182,377) 209,419
360,784 412,924 115.8 103.4 105.0 105.0 105.0 (11,384) (10,171)
2,094 3,608 4,129 109.9 112.5 110.0 110.0 110.0 (371,535) (172,206)
207,325 357,176 408,794 210.8 196.2 180.0 180.0 180.0 (465,403)
(508,990) (630,358) (610,096) (564,445) EBITDA 192,019 573,926
953,837 1,110,125 1,123,555
/ 0.57 0.54 0.52 0.50 0.48 (%) 4.2% -2.6% 20.9% 14.2% 12.1% / 1.02
0.97 1.10 1.13 1.14 EBITDA (%) -72.4% 198.9% 66.2% 16.4% 1.2% /
0.15 0.14 0.16 0.21 0.19
(3.96) (3.86) 3.28 5.84 6.94
<>, <1231> <>, <1231>
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
857,369 1,229,692 1,256,627 1,629,916 2,029,385 EBITDA 192,019
573,926 953,837 1,110,125 1,123,555 876,431 996,165 1,106,277
1,263,223 1,415,612 56,652 35,822 35,646 23,066 10,444 812,721
602,850 791,994 874,208 979,668 82,886 70,338 (274,475) (98,222)
(77,061) 13,505 4,378 4,378 4,378 4,378 (30,202) (13,566) (38,414)
(66,179) (75,743) 2,560,026 2,833,085 3,159,276 3,771,724 4,429,043
165,245 (229,386) (75,646) (73,066) (70,444) 3,767,302 3,339,434
3,209,076 3,048,980 2,934,535 466,600 437,134 600,947 895,724
910,751 22,653 21,839 21,839 21,839 21,839 741,698 564,092 564,092
564,092 564,092 754,189 153,620 500,000 450,000 450,000 27,903
39,709 40,346 40,346 40,346 (1,599,047) (299,315) (960,000)
(850,000) (840,000) 7,119,582 6,798,159 6,994,629 7,446,982
7,989,856 (844,858) (145,695) (460,000) (400,000) (390,000)
1,352,722 1,332,923 1,357,703 1,498,642 1,679,431 515,891 627,535
689,169 739,800 788,961 692,174 (38,366) (38,366) (49,369) (50,839)
81,489 70,809 70,809 70,809 70,809 (14,915) 293,419 0 0 0 1,950,102
2,031,267 2,117,681 2,309,250 2,539,201 0 0 0 0 0 1,913,590
1,475,000 1,375,000 1,275,000 1,175,000 (289,170) (43,747) (75,646)
(73,066) (70,444) 183,878 157,904 157,904 157,904 157,904 388,089
211,306 (114,012) (122,435) (121,283) 4,047,570 3,664,171 3,650,585
3,742,154 3,872,105 98,162 88,158 90,252 93,860 97,989 9,831
502,745 26,935 373,289 399,469 3,072,012 3,133,988 3,344,044
3,704,827 4,117,751 839,210 856,877 1,221,089 1,248,024 1,621,313
() 0.52 0.43 0.38 0.42 0.47 7,836 0 0 0 0 609,924 801,818 1,041,595
1,462,474 1,889,843 856,877 1,359,622 1,248,024 1,621,313
2,020,782
2010 4
- 17 -
71 19 : (852) 2522-2101 : (852) 2810-6789 (“”)
