7 Ημέρες Οικονομία - Eurobank Research

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Αρνητικός ρυθμός αποταμίευσης των νοικοκυριών - η ανάκαμψη των επενδύσεων απαιτεί ισχυρή χρηματοδότηση με κεφάλαια από την αλλοδαπή, σύμφωνα με ανάλυση της Eurobank.

Citation preview

  • 1

    15229 2016

    ISSN:22414878

    -

    () -3,27% 3 2015. ( ) -1,47% ( -2,38% 3 2015). 4 2015 .

    , 8 (2007-2015) - 20 , 78% 98%. : . (+20 ) . - .

    3 2015 -6,49% ( 4 ). (2006-2015) 3 2007, 8,84%, -15,33 . ( 28,3% 2007 36,0% 2014), , , , . .

    . (Corruption Perception Index, Transparency International) . , .

    EurobankErgasiasA.E("urobank") , , . , . , , . Eurobank. Eurobank. ( ) ,, , . , , Eurobank . urobank Eurobank.

    .

    [email protected]

    [email protected]

    ( )

    .

    :Bloomberg

  • 152 29 2016

    2

    () -6,49% 3 2015 ( 4 ). 14 . (2006-2015) 3 2007, 8,84%, -15,33 . .

    (..), () -3,27% 3 2015 -2,38% 2 2015 -0,40% 3 2014 ( .., 2 2015, ).1

    1: () ( , %)

    : () (..), (), Eurobank Research.

    : ()

    , ()

    .

    . (.. ) - . - ( 1). , (), ( ) 3 2015, 2 2015 3 2014 -1,80%, -2,14% -0,61% . ,

    1 .

    -1,47% 3 2015 ( -0,24% 2 2015). T ( 2), , -0,64% ( 2,42% 2 2015). 4 2015 . : 1 , 2 (-0,61% 4 2015 -1,80% 3 2015). .

    2: ( , %)

    : () (..), (), Eurobank Research.

    : ()

    .

    - , , .. , 0,54% 3 2015 ( -0,26% 2 2015) , .. , 0,40% ( -0,07%).2

    3 () ( 4 ). 8 (2007-2015) 20 , 78% 98%.3

    2 (

    2 2). 3

    : 1

    2

    .

    (

  • 152 29 2016

    3

    : . (+20 ) . .

    3: - ( 4 %)

    : () (..), (), Eurobank Research.

    : ()

    .

    . ( , ). 3 2015 -6,49% ( 4 ). (2006-2015) 3 2007, 8,84%, -15,33 . ( 28,3% 2007 36,0% 2014), , , , . (.. ).

    30%).

    3

    ,

    .

    . , , (11,47% 2014).

    4: ( 4 %)

    : () , (), Eurobank Research.

    : ()

    .

    2016 (+4,0 ()). 5 . , (+11,3 ) (+11,2 ). (-2,8 ) .

    4,0 () 2016. 91,6 87,6 2015 ( 5). 2016 5 . . 7 2014, 104,6 , -13 .

    : , +3,5 ( 10 ), , -2,8 , , +11,3 ( 9 ),

    +

  • 152 29 2016

    4

    , +1,9 ( 8 ), , +11,2 ( 11 ).

    3 - . 2 2016.

    5: ( )

    : () (European Commission), (), Eurobank

    Research.

    : ()

    .

    ( ) - 2015, 2.270 ( 3.257 ).

    - 2015 46.589 . 2.030 ( 4,2%).4 , (3.591 ), . 2.922 (-448 . ), () 4.832 . ,

    4 :

    https://www.eurobank.gr/Uploads/Reports/GLOBALFOCUSNOTE_Jan%20

    28BUDGETEXECUTION.PDF

    360 . ( 1).

    , 48.545 , 719 . ( 626 ) ( 25 ). , () 6 , 6.406 .

    2.270 . ( 3.257 ) -3.530 ( -2.573 ). ( , , , , 2016), 1.587 .

    1: 2015 ( , ) .

    ()

    ()

    (-) 1. /

    51.421 53.091 -1.670

    1. /

    46.589 48.618 -2.030

    1. 4.832 4.473 360 2. /

    54.951 55.664 -713

    2. /

    48.545 49.264 -719

    21. 41.298 41.924 -626 22.

    565 590 -25

    23. 703 720 -13 24. 5.800 5.830 -30

    25. 178 200 -22 2. 6.406 6.400 6

    / (1-2+)

    2.270 3.257 -986

    /(1-2)

    -3.530 -2.573 -957

    : () , () Eurobank Research.

  • 152 29 2016

    5

    1:

    : , (%), . . yoy%, . . qoq%

    3 (2015) -0,92% (1,30%, 2015q2 1,58%, 2014q3). % -0,89% (0,32%, 2015q2 1,17%, 2014q3).

    . (, %)

    : 1997q3 2015q3

    :

    : 0,72%

    : 1,95%

    : 6,85% (2004q1)

    : -10,37% (2011q4)

    : =

    : 27/11/2015

    . .: 12/2/2016

    (), 29/2/2016

    ( )

    : 1997q3-2015q3 : 2009q12015q3

    : ( )

    (2015) 24,47% (24,58%, 9/2015 26,03%, 10/2014) -1,57 (-1,51 , 9/2015 -1,65 , 10/2014). 3,630 (3,633 , 9/2015 3,544 , 10/2014) 1,176 (1,184 , 9/2015 1,247 10/2014).

    : 4/2006 - 10/2015

    :

    : 16,97%

    : 15,08%

    : 27,90% (9/2013)

    : 7,30% (5/2008)

    : = ,

    = ,

    = ,

    = . .

    : 7/1/2016

    . .: 11/2/2016

    : 4/200610/2015 : 2/200910/2015

    : (), (%)

    (2015) (%) 0,39% (-0,12%, 11/2015 -2,53%, 12/2014) -1,09% (-1,34%, 11/2015 -1,39%, 12/2014). (%) -0,17% (-0,74%, 11/2015 -2,61%, 12/2015) -1,73% (-1,94%, 11/2015 -1,31%, 12/2014).

    , (, %)

    : 7/1998 - 12/2015

    :

    : 2,41%

    : 3,03%

    : 5,66% (9/2010)

    : -2,86% (11/2013)

    : =

    : 13/1/2016

    . .: 17/2/2016

    : 7/199812/2015 : 4/200912/2015

    : () (..), () Eurobank Research.

  • 152 29 2016

    6

    2: ( 12 )

    (3/2010-11/2015) (3/2010-11/2015) : 20/1/2016

    : (, , ) 2014 - 2015 -0,82 (11/2014-10/2015: -1,09 12/2013-11/2014: -2,56).

    2014 - 2015 -17,79 (11/2014-10/2015: -17,90 12/2013-11/2014: -21,87).

    : (, )

    2014 - 2015 17,19 (11/2014-10/2015: 17,38 12/2013-11/2014: 18,28).

    2014 - 2015 12,11 (11/2014-10/2015: 12,08 12/2013-11/2014: 11,36).

    : (. & ., , . & ., . . .)

    2014 - 2015 0,37 (11/2014-10/2015: 0,07 12/2013-11/2014: 0,56).

    2014 - 2015 , -2,05 (11/2014-10/2015: -2,24 12/2013-11/2014: -2,12).

    : ( )

    2014 - 2015 -0,58 (11/2014-10/2015: -0,65 12/2013-11/2014: 0,47).

    2014 - 2015 -0,68 (11/2014-10/2015: -0,75 12/2013-11/2014: 0,16).

    : () (), () Eurobank Research. : 20/2/2016

  • 152 29 2016

    7

    3:

    : 2/2003-11/2015 : 3/200911/2015 : 30/12/2015

    () (2015) 227,25 (10/2015: 227,87 11/2014: 232,84 ).

    -2,40% (10/2015: -1,33% 11/2014: -2,96%).

    () (2015)

    23,00 (10/2015: 23,36 11/2014: 20,83 ).

    10,42% (10/2015: 24,09% 11/2014: -2,63%).

    () (2015)

    96,54 (10/2015: 96,52 11/2014: 101,62 ).

    -5,00% (10/2015: -4,99% 11/2014: -2,02%).

    () (2015)

    94,26 (10/2015: 94,52 11/2014: 96,92 ).

    -2,74% (10/2015: -2,85% 11/2014: -3,99%).

    : () (), () Eurobank Research. : +1

  • 152 29 2016

    8

    4:

    : 2/2003-11/2015 : 3/200911/2015 : 30/12/2015

    () (2015) ( , ) ( ) 155,19 (10/2015: 157,80 11/2014: 213,33 ).

    -27,26% (10/2015: -26,04% 11/2014: 0,12%).

    () (2015)

    ( ) 9,77 (10/2015: 8,62 11/2014: 13,55 ).

    -27,88% (10/2015: -38,26% 11/2014: -17,02%).

    () (2015)

    ( ) (, ) 20,03 (10/2015: 19,85 11/2014: 28,24 ).

    -29,08% (10/2015: -31,29% 11/2014: 7,91%).

    () (2015)

    ( ) 100,88 (10/2015: 101,23 11/2014: 136,06 ).

    -25,86% (10/2015: -25,35% 11/2014: 0,88%).

    : () (), () Eurobank Research. : +1

  • 152 29 2016

    9

    5: - ,

    : 7/1998-1/2016 : 5/20091/2016 : 28/1/2016

    (2016) (91,6 ) 4,0 -4,3 .

    (: 40%) (2016)

    (-10,6 ) 3,5 -2,2 .

    (: 30%) (2016)

    (-5,3 ) 11,3 -14,3 .

    (: 20%) (2016)

    (-63,9 ) -2,8 -14,9 .

    (: 5%) (2016)

    (-3,4 ) 1,9 -2,4 .

    (: 5%) (2016)

    (-37,9 ) 11,2 -8,1 .

    : (European Commission) : 26/2/2016

  • 152 29 2016

    10

    :29/1/2016.

    x. .

    q (1),(7) (yoy,%) 0.92% 2015q3 1.30% 2015q2 1.58% 2014q3 0.96% 2013q3 7.31% 2012q3 (qoq,%) 0.89% 0.32% 1.17% 0.17% 1.51% y 185.51 2014 184.31 2013 190.39 2012 205.39 2011 226.03 2010 177.56 180.39 191.20 207.03 226.03 m % 24.47% 15 24.58% 15 26.03% 14 27.68% 13 26.02% 12 (yoy,%) 0.17% 15 0.74% 15 2.61% 14 1.71% 13 0.80% 12 0.39% 0.12% 2.53% 1.82% 0.33% q (yoy,%) 1.38% 2015q3 0.93% 2015q2 0.64% 2014q3 3.48% 2013q3 0.18% 2012q3....() q (1),(7) (yoy,%) 0.64% 2015q3 2.42% 2015q2 0.77% 2014q3 1.92% 2013q3 7.91% 2012q3. 0.40% 1.47% 3.51% 0.25% 14.61%.() 13.59% 1.51% 2.05% 5.40% 31.98%.() 10.01% 2.62% 7.22% 6.88% 0.89%.() 20.10% 3.38% 5.91% 6.98% 16.95%..() q (4),(7) (yoy,%) 2.80% 2015q3 1.02% 2015q2 0.78% 2014q3 1.28% 2013q3 0.78% 2012q3..() 4.42% 1.04% 3.79% 1.11% 1.68%..() 2.42% 3.97% 2.72% 6.05% 4.55%..() 2.66% 3.44% 2.25% 5.38% 3.77% m (1),(7) 3630.45 15 3632.64 15 3544.15 14 3498.07 13 3611.04 12 1175.90 1184.19 1247.39 1339.13 1270.22 4806.35 4816.83 4791.55 4837.20 4881.26 3267.49 3260.47 3327.83 3333.64 3341.86 q (2),(7) (yoy,%) 6.09% 2015q3 4.97% 2015q2 6.98% 2014q3 10.18% 2013q3 12.56% 2012q3.() m (1),(7) 11.35% 15 3.54% 15 19.02% 14 4.05% 13 42.69% 12(PMI) m (6),(7) 50.2 15 48.1 15 49.4 14 49.6 13 41.4 12 (1),(7) (yoy,%) 1.75% 15 1.89% 15 3.33% 14 6.60% 13 2.36% 12 10.14% 18.77% 0.61% 11.55% 4.60% 3.89% 15 5.31% 15 0.79% 14 2.08% 13 17.13% 12 2.52% 3.34% 2.11% 1.14% 18.11% q (1),(7) (yoy,%) 11.23% 2015q3 3.26% 2015q2 1.18% 2014q3 11.13% 2013q3 9.12% 2012q3. 9.73% 10.06% 19.89% 5.17% 32.41%(+++) 12m (2),(7) 0.82 15 1.09 15 2.56 14 4.02 13 8.51 12A.(1+2+3) 17.79 17.90 21.87 20.53 21.531. 4.41 4.50 6.11 6.69 8.722. 0.59 0.58 2.10 1.41 1.273. 12.79 12.82 13.65 12.43 11.54.(1+2+3) 17.19 17.38 18.28 15.58 13.991. 12.11 12.08 11.36 10.28 8.582. 4.85 5.14 6.80 5.46 6.063. 0.22 0.17 0.12 0.17 0.64.(1+2+3) 0.37 0.07 0.56 0.22 0.161. 0.25 0.28 0.26 0.24 0.282., 2.05 2.24 2.12 2.72 2.323. 2.67 2.59 2.94 2.73 2.44.(1+2) 0.58 0.65 0.47 1.16 0.811. 0.68 0.75 0.16 0.69 0.842. 0.10 0.10 0.31 0.47 0.03()% y (1),(7) % 3.60% 2014 12.40% 2013 8.80% 2012 10.20% 2011 11.20% 2010% 0.40% 8.40% 3.70% 3.00% 5.30%% 178.60% 177.00% 159.40% 172.00% 146.20%()() (5),(7) 51.42 15 44.94 15 39.76 15 34.29 15 30.77 15() 53.09 46.25 41.86 36.34 34.92 1.67 1.32 2.11 2.05 4.15() 54.95 46.18 37.73 36.20 31.87() 55.66 49.26 40.89 40.08 36.61 0.71 3.07 3.17 3.88 4.74.() 2.27 4.34 4.53 3.07 3.80.() 3.26 2.65 2.42 1.27 3.26() 3.53 1.25 0.79 1.90 1.10() 2.57 3.00 2.88 3.74 1.69 (2),(7) % 0.30% 3/12/14 0.20% 10/9/14 0.10% 11/6/14 0.00% 13/11/14 0.00% 8/5/13 0.05% 0.05% 0.15% 0.25% 0.50% 0.30% 0.30% 0.40% 0.75% 1.00%(10) m (2),(7) % 7.41% 15 7.81% 15 8.10% 14 8.41% 13 17.20% 12() 0.58% 0.62% 1.19% 1.81% 2.79%() 4.92% 5.08% 5.12% 5.50% 5.63%() 0.61% 0.67% 1.38% 2.14% 2.89%() 5.07% 5.05% 5.25% 5.59% 5.82%(+++) m (2),(7) 227.25 15 227.87 15 232.84 14 239.94 13 260.27 12A. 23.00 23.36 20.83 21.39 30.88B. 96.54 96.52 101.62 103.72 109.24. 94.26 94.52 96.92 100.95 106.31.,.. 13.46 13.48 13.47 13.88 13.84(++) m (2),(7) 155.19 15 157.80 15 213.33 14 213.09 13 210.29 12.(1+2+3) 130.67 129.70 177.85 177.37 164.441. 9.77 8.62 13.55 16.33 8.552.(2.1+2.2+2.3) 20.03 19.85 28.24 26.17 24.772.1. 1.59 1.70 2.77 3.06 2.592.2. 3.87 3.74 4.84 5.31 3.742.3. 14.57 14.41 20.63 17.80 18.443. 100.88 101.23 136.06 134.87 131.12. 1.25 1.23 1.52 1.44 1.49. 23.27 26.87 33.97 34.28 44.36. m (3),(7) 91.6 16 87.6 15 95.9 15 93.4 14 86.4 13 10.1 13.6 7.9 11.2 13.7 5.3 16.6 9.0 2.5 28.6 63.9 61.1 49.3 62.7 71.9 3.4 5.3 1.0 11.6 30.5 37.9 49.1 29.8 23.4 58.6

    ,,,.

    A6:

    :(1)y,qm,,(2)(yoy),(qoq),12m(5),(6)Bloomberg,(7)EurobankEconomicAnalysisandFinancialMarketsResearch.:(1)(..),(2)(),(3)(EuropeanCommission),(4)(Eurostat),

    12,,(3),(4)(),,(5)()

  • 152 29 2016

    11

    Eurobank http://www.eurobank.gr/research

    Daily Overview of Global markets & the SEE Region: Greece Macro Monitor: Regional Economics & Market Strategy Monthly: Global Economy & Markets Monthly:

    : http://www.eurobank.gr/research twitter: http://twitter.com/Eurobank_Group

    Eurobank Ergasias SA, 8 Othonos Str., 10557 Athens, tel: +30 210 33 37 000, fax: +30 210 33 37 190, contact email: [email protected]

    . Eurobank

    .

    Eurobank

    &

    : :

    : :

    : : G10 . :

    :