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A
A
A
2014 3 7
010-60838226 [email protected]
S1010510120004
010-60836741 [email protected]
S1010514030002
1. .............. ...................................... 2013-12-11
2. ...................................... 2013-12-30
3. ...................................... 2014-01-21
4. ...................................... 2014-01-27
5. ...................................... 2014-02-13
6. ...................................... 2014-03-03
�
� 1981-1990 50%1991-2000 40-50%
2001-2012 35-40%
1981-1991 1992-2000 2001
�
1981-1991 1992-2000 1992-2000
2001 � 2016
2016/2017 2009
2017
20172016
� 2012 20131.9
1981-19911992-2000 2-4
30-40% 20-30%3-5
GDP 6.5% � A 2014
2700 4200 35002013
2014 GDP2005
2014 A
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A
.......................................................................................... 1
1980 ..................................................................................... 1 .......................................................................................... 2
................................................................................................. 3
2016 ........................................................................................... 4
................................................................................................. 4 ................................................................................................. 5 ................................................................................................. 7
2012-13 ................................................. 8
2 ............................................................................................. 8 ............................................................................... 9
...................................................................................................... 10
...................................................................... 10 ......................................................................... 12
A ......................................................................... 13
............................................................................................... 13 A .......................................................................... 17
......................................................................... 18
...................................................................................................... 18 ................................................................................................... 19
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A
1 1981-1991 1992-2000 2001 ............................................... 1 2 ................................................................................ 2 3 1980-2012 ................................................................................ 3 4 1980-2012 ................................................................................ 3 5 ................................................................................... 4 6 1980-2011 .............................................................. 4 7 ..................................................................... 5 8 2009 .............................................................................. 7 9 1960-2000 GDP .................................................... 11 10 1972-2012 GDP ................................................. 12 11 1980-2013 GDP ................................................. 12 12 1981-1991 1992-2000 .......................... 13 13 ............................................................................... 14 14 ............................................................................... 14 15 ............................................................................ 15 16 ............................................................................ 15 17 225 .................................................................... 15 18 ................................................................. 16 19 .................................................................... 16 20 ................................................................. 16 21 ............................................................................ 19 22 1952-2013 ................................................................. 20
1 1980 .................................. 6 2 ................................................................. 8 3 2010-2013 ............................. 9 4 2010-2013 .................................... 9 5 2013 2014 ...................... 10 6 GDP .............................................................. 11
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A
1
1980
1952-20131978 1978
1978
-
1978 1981-19911992-2000 2001 1
1981-1991 1980 5.5% 19816.0% 1986 13.8% 1987 1991
7.9%
1992-2000 1992 8.9% 1991 1.01996 13.0% 1997 2000 10.2%
2001 10.3% 2000 0.1 2002-20072007 13.4% 2008 13.3%
2009 15.3% 20102013 11.9% 2001 2009
1978 1981-1991 11 1992-20009 2001 13 2009
1 1981-1991 1992-2000 2001 %
CEIC
-5
0
5
10
15
20
0
40000
80000
120000
160000
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
R
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A
2
2
2
60% 50-60%40-50% 30-40% 30%
50% 35-50%35%
1980
1981-1990 50% 13-15%60% 55-60% 8%-12%
60% 1981-1990 50%60%
1991-2000 54% 39% 10%7.5% 8%
49% 6% 5-6% 5% 1991-200040-50%
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A
3
2001-2012 39% 36% 6-7%15% 12-14% 7%
13% 34.4% 6%10% 18% 9-12%
6% 8% 2001-201235-40%
3 4
3 1980-2012 %
Wind
4 1980-2012 %
Wind
1981-1991 1991-2000 2001-2012
198050%
199053%
2001-201270% 5 6
1980 1990 211981-1991
1992-2000 2001
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0 1980 1995 2005 2012
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0 1980 1995 2005 2012
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A
4
5 %
CEIC
6 1980-2011 %
CEIC
2016
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
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A
5
1981-1991 1992-2000 20011981-1990 1992-2000 1992-2000
2001-2009
7
2001 2009 2010
1981-1991 1992-2000
11981-1991 1981 1986 6 1987 1991
5 1 1992-2000 1992 19965 1997 2000 4 1
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A
6
1.2-1.31981-1991 6 5 6/5=1.2 1992-2000
5 4 5/4=1.251.2 1
2001 2001 2009 92010 4
1 4 20171.2-1.3 2010 7 2016
20012016-2017 2001-2009
2010-2016/17
1 1980 1 2 1 - 2 1 / 2
1981-1991 6 5 1 1.2 1992-2000 5 4 1 1.25
1 1.2 2001-2016/17 9 7-8 1-2 1.2
2016/2017 7-81981-1991 1992-2000
2009
2001 2007 20082009 2010 2008
2001 20072008 7 5-6 12-13
20092006 2007 2008 2009 2010 13.3%
13.4% 13.3% 15.3% 14.9% 8
2001-2007
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A
7
8 2009 %
CEIC
2013
22017
2017
2013 12……
…… ……2013
20172016 2017
2015
2016
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2009
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A
8
2
2013 10
2013 10
5
2013-2017
2013 9
2013 9 2013-2017
20172012 10%
25% 20% 15%60 /
2013 9
2013 9
2013-2017
2017 600010 2016
201730%
2013 4
2013-2017 2013-2017
80 450145 55 30
230 50575 58.6
2012-13
2
20102010
2010-2011
2012-2013
2012-20132012-2013
2012-2013
2012-2013 2.26.7
8.5 8.3 7.9
2012 20137.2 7.5 7.4%
3
2011 2012 2013 9.87.2 6.1 2012 2013 2.6 1.1 2011 2012
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A
9
2013 1.7 3.1 4.52012 2013 1.4 4
2012 2013 3.2 1.02.6 1.1
1.9 1.4 1.41.4
3 2010-2013 %
2010 24.5 26.9 27.2 7.0 35.9 18.5 2011 24.0 31.8 31.8 14.6 36.4 6.6 2012 20.7 22.0 17.9 -2.0 20.6 13.8 2013 19.6 18.5 14.8 -2.1 20.6 21.3
2012-13 12-13 12-13 12-13 12-13 12-13 12-13
-2.2 -6.7 -8.5 -8.3 -7.9 7.4
Wind
4 2010-2013 %
2010 24.5 -5.9 8.1 -0.2 5.1 -5.6 2011 24.0 -0.7 9.8 1.7 1.7 -3.4 2012 20.7 -3.2 7.2 -2.6 3.1 1.4 2013 19.6 -1.0 6.1 -1.1 4.5 1.4
Wind
2012 2013 1.9
2011-20132011-2013 415
445 2012 2013 20142014
2013 41
……20151500 1500 1 2000
……
2014-20151500 1500 1 2000 2013 2014-2015
2014-2015 4000 12000
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A
10
2014 2014 27004200 3500 2014-2015 2014
2014-2015 70% 42%2013 2013
20142014
2012-20132014-2016 2 15%
2014 17.5% 2013 19.6%2.1
5 2013 2014
2011 2012 2013 2013 2014
1 2 3 4 = 1
+ 2 + 3 5 6 = 5
- 4 7 8 = 6
+ 7 9
3122 1000 263 4385 4800 415 1500 1915 2700 2794 780 781 4355 4800 445 1500 1945
15327 21900 7345 44572 37000 0 10000 10000 4200
2940.7 4700 2250 9890.7 9000 0 2000 2000 3500
2014 6
GDP
50% 35-50%35%
40-50% 35-40% 25-35%25%
1947-1952 50-65%1953-1961 40-50%
GDP 9.3% 1962-1978 30-40%GDP 7.3%
2 1979-2003 20-30%GDP 2.6% 4.7 6 9
1964-1980 50-65% GDP8.2% 1980-1985 40-50%
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A
11
GDP 7.8% 0.4 1985-199130-40% GDP 9.6%1.8 1992 20-30% GDP
4.8% 4.8 6 10
1980-1993 GDP 9.8%1994-2000 GDP 9.6% 0.22000-2012 GDP 10.1%1980-2012 2017
30% 2030 20% 6 11
30-40% 20-30%3.8 4.8 3-5
2000-2012 GDP 10.1%2014-2030 5-7%
30%30% 30%
6 GDP %
GDP GDP GDP 1947-1952 65-50% 1964-1980 65-50% 8.2% 1980-1993 60-50% 9.8% 1953-1961 50-40% 9.3% 1980-1985 50-40% 7.8% 1994-2000 50-40% 9.6% 1962-1978 40-30% 7.3% 1985-1991 40-30% 9.6% 2000-2012 40-35% 10.1% 1979-2003 30-23% 2.6% 1992-2013 30-20% 4.8% 2013-2017E 35-30% 2017-2030E 30-20%
CEIC 1980-2012 0.80.9 0.85 2012 36.2% 34.4% 35 %
2017 30% 2030 20%
9 1960-2000 GDP %
CEIC
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
GDP
20
301981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 20111
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A
12
10 1972-2012 GDP %
CEIC
11 1980-2013 GDP %
CEIC
2014-2030
1981-1991 1981 1986 1987 19911981-1986 GDP 10.4% 1987-1991 GDP 7.9%
GDP 2.5 12
1992-2000 1992 1996 19972000 1992-1996 GDP 12.4% 1997-2000 GDP8.3% GDP 4.1
GDP 2-4 12
2001 2001 20092010 2016 2001-2009 GDP10.5% 2010-2016 GDP 6.5-8.5%
2010-2013 GDP 8.8% 2010-2016
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
GDP
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GDP
20
3079 2002 2007 12201192 1
2
3
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A
13
GDP 6.5-8.5% 7.5% 2014-2016 GDP6.5% 2014-2016
7%
2014-2016 GDP 7%2017-2030 5-7%
12 1981-1991 1992-2000 %
CEIC 14
A
A 20052005-2007
2008 A 2009 A2007 2010 A
2005 A A2005 A
13 14
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
GDP
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A
14
13 %
Wind
14 %
Wind
1516
1987 225
17 18
20102010
2010 19 20
A
0
1200
2400
3600
4800
6000
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
R
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
20000
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
R
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A
15
15 %
CEIC
16 %
CEIC
17 225 %
CEIC
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1968
19
70
1972
19
74
1976
19
78
1980
19
82
1984
19
86
1988
19
90
R
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
1990 2000 2010
R
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
225 R
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A
16
18 %
CEIC
19 %
CEIC
20 %
CEIC
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
1994 1999 2004 2009
TSE:Oil and Coal Products R
TSE:Iron and Steel R TSE:Nonferrous Metals R
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
KOSPI: Manufacturing Industry Index R
0.0
2000.0
4000.0
6000.0
8000.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
KOSPI: Chemicals R
KOSPI: Non Metallic Mineral Products R KOSPI: Iron and Metal Products R
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A
17
A
2010
2010
20142016
2014 A
2015 2016 A2015
A2010
2015 2016A
2014 A2015 2016 A
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A
19
21
Zt Kt , A Kt
2000 1952 1600
5% 1952-19995% 2000-2013
1952-2013 1952 GDP1952-2013 GDP 1952
1952-2013 GDP A0.62
1952-20131953-2013
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A
20
22 1952-2013 %
CEIC
-5
0
5
10
15
20
0
40000
80000
120000
160000
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
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Analyst Certification i
iiThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify
that: (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii) no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
/ ( ) (1)(2)
//
2014
1
66300
2
6300
300 20%
300 5% 20%
300 -10% 5%
300 10%
300 10%
300 -10% 10%
300 10%
48 100125
1568 22 200122
8 518048
1 26
Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S. -
This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company (“CITIC Securities”, regulated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Securities Business License Number: Z20374000). This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule 15a-6(a) (2) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to “major U.S. institutional investors” as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action letters thereunder.
Z20374000 1934 15a-6(a) (2) 15a-6
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