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Interest rate Binomial
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A Multi-Factor Binomial Interest Rate Model with State Time Dependent Volatilities
ByThomas S. Y. Ho
AndSang Bin Lee
May 2005
Applications of Multi-factor Interest Rate Models Valuation of interest rate options,
mortgage-backed, corporate/municipal bonds,…
Balance sheet items: deposit accounts, annuities, pensions,…
Corporate management: risk management, VaR, asset/liability management…
Regulations: marking to market, Sarbane-Oxley…
Financial modeling of a firm: corporate finance
Interest Rate Models /Challenges Interest rate models: Cox, Ingersoll and Ross,
Vasicek Binomial models: Ho-Lee, Black, Derman and Toy Extensions of normal model: Hull-White Generalized continuous time models: Heath,
Jarrow, Morton approach Market models: Brace, Gatarek, and
Musiela/Jamshidian Discrete time models: Das-Sundaram, Grant-Vora What is a practical model?
Requirements of Interest Rate Models Arbitrage-free conditions satisfied Can be calibrated to a broad range of
securities, not just swaptions/caps/floors
Multi-factor to capture the changing shape of the yield curve
Consistent with historical observations: mean reversion, no unreasonably high interest rate, no negative interest rates
Outline of the Presentation Motivations of the model Model assumptions: mathematical
construct Key ideas of the theory: Extending
from Ho-Lee model (1986, 2004) Model theoretical and empirical results Practical applications of the model Conclusion: challenges to
mathematical finance
Model Assumptions Binomial model: Cox Ross Rubinstein Arbitrage-free condition:
Consistent with the spot curve Expected risk free return at each node for all
bonds Recombining condition General solution: risk neutral
probabilities and time/state dependent solutions
Continuous Time Specification dr = f(r,t)dt + σ(r, t) dz σ(r, t) = σ(t) r for r < R = σ(t) R for r > R
Ho-Lee 1-factor Constant Volatilities Model
P(T) discount fn
Forward price Convexity
term Uncertainty
term
n 1 n 2 iTni T n 1 T
(1 δ )(1 δ ) (1 δ) δP(T n)P (T) 2P(n) (1 δ) (1 δ )
The Ho-Lee n-Factor Time Dependent Modelforward/spot volatilities
1 21, 1,n 2
i,j 1 21 11, 1,
1 21, 1,
1 1( )P (T) 2( ) 1 1
n nn k n k
k kT n k T n k
i j
T n n T n n
d dP T nP n d d
d d
The Generalized Ho-Lee Model
1 110
11 00
(1 ( ))( 1)( ) (1 ( 1))
kn in ni jk
k j
n kP nPP n n k
11 1
1
1 ( 1)( ) ( 1)1 ( 1)
nn n n ii i i n
i
TT TT
3/ 2exp( 2 ( ) min( , ) )n ni in R R t
Calibration Procedure Forward looking approach: implied
market expectations, no historical data used
Specify the two term structures of volatilities by a set of parameters: a,b,…,e
Non-linear estimate the parameters such that the sum of the mean squared % errors in estimating the benchmark securities is minimize
Market Observed Volatility Surface(%): An Example
Option Term
Swap tenorCap
volatility1 yr 3 yr 5 yr 7 yr 10 yr
1 yr 37.2 29.3 25.4 23.7 22.2 42.5
2 yr 28.3 24.8 22.7 21.7 20.5 40.5
3 yr 25.0 22.9 21.3 20.5 19.4 34.6
4 yr 22.7 21.3 20.0 19.4 18.3 31.1
5 yr 21.5 20.2 18.9 18.3 17.2 28.7
7 yr 19.2 18.0 16.9 16.2 15.5 25.5
10 yr 16.8 15.5 14.6 14.1 13.6 22.6
Estimated Average Errors in %70 swaptions observations/date;11/03-5/04 monthly data
Generalized Ho-Lee
Ho-Lee (2004)
One factor 2.80 2.58
Two factor 1.54 1.75
Principal Yield Curve Movements98% parallel shift, 2% steepening
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4 level
steepness
Two yield curve movements implied by historical level data (1998-2004)
Rat
e S
hift
Time-to-Maturity (years)
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20-0.2
0
0.2level
steepness
Two yield curve movements implied by the Two Factor Ho-Lee Model
Rat
e S
hift
Time-to-Maturity (years)
Davidson and MacKinnon C TestComparison of Alternative Models
(1 )i i i iY
( )i i i i iY
2-Factor Model vs 1-Factor Model H0 : the one factor model is better
than the two factor modelH1 : the two factor model is better than the one factor model
t-testcoefficient std error t-value p-value 2.22 0.17 13.21 0.00
Two factor model is accepted
1 factor model vs 2 factor model
A B C D E
06/30/03 3.51% 4.34% 1.969 7.636 4607/30/03 3.73% 4.42% 2.776 8.119 4908/29/03 2.28% 2.93% 3.048 13.19 7209/30/03 3.49% 4.28% 3.215 11.02 6410/30/03 2.60% 3.34% 2.973 12.95 7111/28/03 1.50% 2.20% 1.981 13.08 7112/31/03 1.83% 2.65% 2.623 19.92 8501/31/04 1.72% 2.49% 2.42 16.52 8002/27/04 1.65% 2.33% 2.626 16.96 8103/31/04 2.22% 3.11% 2.944 21.6 8705/31/04 1.03% 1.44% 1.989 11.34 6506/30/04 2.09% 2.14% 1.877 2.062 6Average 2.30% 2.97% 2.537 12.866 65
* Note that the threshold rate is 3%.
R-square(%)
C test1&2 factor model of mean
1-factor model* Coefficientsdates
2-factor model* t-statistics
Lognormal vs Normal Model H0: The threshhold rate is 9% H1: The threshold rate is 3% t-test: on 5/31/2004 Coefficient std error t-value p-value 2.648 0.661 4.007 0.004 The results are mixed. Depends on the
date
Normal vs Lognormal models
A B C D E
06/30/03 3.51% 3.79% 1.289 3.494 1507/30/03 3.73% 4.08% 2.558 4.888 2608/29/03 2.28% 2.67% 2.542 7.136 4209/30/03 3.49% 3.84% 2.129 4.74 2510/30/03 2.60% 2.97% 1.184 4.697 2411/28/03 1.50% 1.86% 1.067 6.132 3512/31/03 1.83% 2.25% 1.919 7.348 4401/31/04 1.72% 2.04% 1.733 6.15 3502/27/04 1.65% 1.89% 1.88 5.507 3103/31/04 2.22% 2.62% 2.048 6.172 3605/31/04 1.03% 1.36% 1.576 8.259 5006/30/04 2.09% 1.48% 0.0635 0.5661 0Average 2.30% 2.57% 1.666 5.424 30
R-square(%)
C test2 factor model mean
Dates3%
threshold rate
9% threshold
rateCoefficients t-statistics
1Factor Model Latticeintuitive results
0 20 40 60 80 100 120-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
10-year term
One Month Interest Rate on the Lattice of the Generalized Ho-Lee Model
In Contrast: Lognormal Model with Term Structure of Volatilities
0 20 40 60 80 100 1200
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
11000 Randomly Simulated Paths from Lattice of the one Factor BDT Model
10 year term
Combining Two Risk Sources: Extended to Stock/Rate Recombined Lattice
Advantages of the Model: a Comparison Arbitrage-free model: takes the market curve as
given – relative valuation and use of key rate durations
Accepts volatility surface, contrasts with market model
Minimize model errors, contrasts with non-recombining interest rate models
Accurate calibration for a broad range of securities A comparison with the continuous time model:
specification of the instantaneous volatility
Applications of the Model A consistent framework for pricing an interest rate
contingent claims portfolio Ho-Lee Journal of Fixed-Income 2004
Portfolio strategies: static hedging… Ho-Lee Financial Modeling Oxford University Press 2004
Balance sheet management: Ho Journal of Investment Management 2004
Building structural models: credit risk Ho-Lee Journal of Investment Management 2004
Modeling a business: corporate finance Ho-Lee working paper 2004
Use of efficient sampling methods in the path space of the lattice:
Ho Journal of Derivatives LPS
Applications to Modeling a Firm Financial statements
Fair value accounting, comprehensive income Primitive Firm
Revenues determine the risk class Correlations of revenues to the balance
sheet risks Firm is a contingent claim on the market
prices and the primitive firm value
Applications of the Corporate Model A relative valuation of the firm A method to relative value equity
and all debt claims Risk transform from all business
risks to the net income Enterprise risk management An integration of financial
statements to financial modeling
Applications to Mathematical Finance Lattice model offers a “co-ordinate system”
for efficient sampling and new approaches to modeling
Information on each node is a fiber bundle Lattice is a vector space, “Bond” is a vector Arrow-Debreu securities defined at each node Embedding a Euclidean metric in the manifold
to measure risks Can we approximate any derivatives by a set
of benchmark securities? Replicate securities?
Conclusions N-factor models are important to some of
the applications of interest rate models in recent years
The model offers computational efficiency
The model provides better fit in the calibrating to the volatility surface when compared with some standard models
Avenues for future research