ADAS Current & Future Perspectives - · PDF file77 GHz LRR 77 GHz MRR 24 GHz NB 24 GHz UWB 79 GHz UWB sensors also under development Balance of cost and functionality may differ by

© 2015 IHS

Presentation

ihs.com

IHS AUTOMOTIVE

ADAS – Current & Future Perspectives

IHS Automotive Seminar– Frankfurt | June 17th

Helena Perslow, Senior Analyst, +44 1933 408074,

[email protected]

Jeremy Carlson, Senior Analyst, +1 310 524 4065,

[email protected]

Contents

© 2015 IHS

SADA GNITNEVNIER YLLAUNITNOC

TEKRAM OT GNIMOC YGOLONHCET

KOOLTUO TSACEROF SADA

YMONOTUA OT NOITAMOTUA OT SADA MORF

2

IHS Automotive Seminar Frankfurt / June 2015

© 2015 IHS 3

Continually Reinventing ADAS


© 2015 IHS

New added benefits

being realized

1

4

Assisting the driver in more ways than one

ACC

AEB

Comfort &

Convenience

Efficiency

Safety

LDW

LKA

BSI

TJA

AHB

TSR

ESC

US PA AutoPA

360PA

Cam PA

Transmission

Acceleration

Braking

Powertrain

Auto

Pilot

Maps


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Driver Biometrics

Digital Agenda

Wearables

V2V + V2I

DSRC

Cellular

GPS

Maps

Navigation

ESC

Transmission

Powertrain

Radar

Camera

Ultrasound

Comprehensive sensor coverage

Many sensor choices to build an ADAS portfolio – and more possible

Decisions will differ by brand, segment and market


© 2015 IHS


6

New Sensors Causing Disruption – 77 GHz MRR

24 GHz UWB 24 GHz NB 77 GHz LRR 77 GHz MRR

79 GHz UWB sensors also under development

Balance of cost and functionality may differ by brand and segment

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77 GHz LRR

Mono or Stereo Camera


Sensor Fusion

77 GHz MRR

© 2015 IHS

Trifocal camera a significant threat to displace stereo-camera

Trifocal camera may replace mono-camera in long-term autonomous

future

New sensors causing disruption – trifocal camera

8


77 GHz LRR Trifocal Camera

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Technology Coming To Market


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ADAS Going Mainstream – Technology Tiers Emerging

Everything At Once

Audi Q7

Par for the near-luxury course

Lincoln MKX

More tech, improved functionality

Chevrolet Volt

Strategic deployment

Nissan Titan, Toyota Tacoma


RADAR +

Ford Mustang

Honda Pilot

Hyundai Tucson

Jaguar XE

Seat Leon

Skoda Superb

Volkswagen Sharan

CAMERA

Citroen Berlingo

Citroen DS5

Honda Civic

Honda Jazz

Mazda CX-3

Peugeot Partner

Peugeot 208

Opel Karl

Renault Kadjar

Mainstream Models

Radar deprioritized – Camera incredibly popular – Lidar proliferating

Geneva NAIAS / CES

77 GHz MRR

77 GHz MRR

© 2015 IHS 11

ADAS Forecast Outlook


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Vehicle production installation rates – Europe & Worldwide

© 2015 IHS

Source: IHS

12

EU production surpassing worldwide averages for every major ADAS

ADAS outlook – Europe vs the World

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Adaptive CruiseControl

AutonomousEmergency Brake

Lane DepartureWarning

Blind SpotInformation

Autonomous ParkAssist

2015 EU 2020 EU 2015 WW 2020 WW


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Vehicle production units – North America & Europe

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Source: IHS

13

North American production shifts from FCW only towards AEB

European regulation and tech-forward strategy significantly outpaces North

America

ADAS outlook – North America vs Europe

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

NA 2015 EU 2015 NA 2020 EU 2020

#K

Autonomous Emergency Braking Forward Collision Warning


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From ADAS To Automation To Autonomy


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Defining the terminology

Automated Autonomous

Cooperative Replacement Car-Driver Relationship

Driver in Driver out or absent “In the loop”

Driver Car Failsafe

Evolutionary Revolutionary Approach

Automotive Industry Challengers Proponent

0 3 3 4* NHTSA Levels

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Current state of the art & announced plans

2

3

4

In Production Announced / Expected

Many incremental and evolutionary steps within Level 2

Level 2 debatable – many are capable but limit functionality for liability (US) or regulatory (EU et al) reasons

“The major distinction between level 1 and level 2 is… that the driver is disengaged… by having hands off

the steering wheel AND foot off pedal at the same time.” -- NHTSA Automated Vehicle Preliminary Policy

5

IHS Level 5: Fully autonomous without driver controls

NHTSA LEVEL OF

AUTOMATION

(L5 = IHS)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

as of June 2015

16


© 2015 IHS

Automated driving evolution

17

2005 2015 2025 2035

L4

L2 L3

L1 L0

Autonomous with driver controls

L5 No driver controls

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2020 2025 2030 2035

%

#M

L4 L5 % New LV Sales

Autonomous vehicle sales forecast

© 2015 IHS

Source: IHS


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ADAS Current & Future Perspectives - · PDF file77 GHz LRR 77 GHz MRR 24 GHz NB 24 GHz UWB 79 GHz UWB sensors also under development Balance of cost and functionality may differ by