Alpharetta Vemuri Madhavan Aff Wake Forest Round6

7/23/2019 Alpharetta Vemuri Madhavan Aff Wake Forest Round6

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/alpharetta-vemuri-madhavan-aff-wake-forest-round6 1/26

CyberterrorContention One is Cyberterror:

The NSA’s electronic backdoors undermine overallcybersecurity – also shuts out the US from establishing cyber

norms

Sasso, technology correspondent for National Journal, 14

Brendan, "The NSA Isn't Just Spying on Us, It's Also Undermining InternetSecurity", April 29 2!, Natio nal Journal, ###$national%ournal$com&daily&thensaisnt%ustspyingonusitsalsoundermininginternetsecurity2!29

(NSA )ac*doors in+rastructure to ma*e hac*ing easy

(This encryption is aaila)le to anyone that -nds it . hac*ing

(Necessary +or international norm modelling people #on/t +ollo# til USA doestheir shit

Bolstering the nation/s de+enses against hac*ers has )een one o+ the 0)amaadministration/s top goals$ 01icials hae #arned +or years that a sophisticatedcy)erattac* could cripple destroy3 critical in+rastructure or allo# thiees to ma*eo1 #ith the -nancial in+ormation o+ millions o+ Americans$ 4resident 0)ama pushed

5ongress to enact cy)ersecurity legislation, and #hen it didn/t, he issued his o#n e6ecutie order in 2!7$ 8Thecy)er threat to our nation is one o+ the most serious economic and nationalsecurity challenges #e +ace, 0)ama #rote in a 2!2 oped in The :all Street Journal$ But critics

argue that the N ational S ecurity A gency has actually undermined

cybersecurity and made the U nited S tates more vulnerable to hackers$ At its

core, the pro)lem is the NSA/s dual mission$ 0n one hand, the agency is tas*ed #ithsecuring U$S$ net#or*s and in+ormation$ 0n the other hand, the agency mustgather intelligence on +oreign threats to national security$ 5ollecting intelligenceo+ten means hac*ing encrypted communications$ That/s nothing ne# +or the NSA; the agency

traces its roots )ac* to code)rea*ers deciphering Na<i messages during :orld :ar II$ So in many #ays,strong Internet security actually ma*es the NSA/s %o) harder $ 8This is an administration

that is a igorous de+ender o+ sureillance, said 5hristopher Soghoian, the head technologist +or the American

5iil =i)erties Union$ “Surveillance at the scale they ant re!uires insecurity "# The

lea*s +rom >d#ard Sno#den hae reealed a ariety o+ e1orts )y the NSA to #ea*ency)ersecurity and hac* into net#or*s$ 5ritics say those programs, #hile helping NSA

spying, hae made U$S$ net#or*s less secure$ According to the lea*ed documents,the NSA inserted a so$called back door into at least one encryption

standard that as developed by the N ational % nstitute of S tandards and

& echnology" The NSA could use that )ac* door to spy on suspected terrorists, )ut

the vulnerability as also available to any other hacker ho discovered it"

N%S&, a 5ommerce ?epartment agency, sets scienti'c and technical standards

that are idely used by both the government and the private sector " The

agency has said it #ould neer 8deli)erately #ea*en a cryptographic standard, )ut it remains unclear #hether

the agency #as a#are o+ the )ac* door or #hether the NSA tric*ed NIST into adopting the compromised

http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/the-nsa-isn-t-just-spying-on-us-it-s-also-undermining-internet-security-20140429






standard$ NIST is re@uired )y la# to consult #ith the NSA +or its technical e6pertise on cy)ersecurity$ Thereelation that NSA someho# got NIST to )uild a )ac* door into an encryptionstandard has seriously damaged NIST/s reputation #ith security e6perts$ 8NIST is

operating #ith a trust de-cit right no#, Soghoian said$ 8 Anything that N%S& has

touched is no tainted"# It/s a particularly )ad time +or NIST to hae lost the

support o+ the cy)ersecurity community$ In his e6ecutie order, 0)ama tas*edNIST #ith dra+ting the cy)ersecurity guidelines +or critical infrastructure such

as poer plants and phone companies$ Because it/s an e6ecutie order instead o+ a la#, the

cy)ersecurity standards are entirely oluntary, and the U$S$ goernment #ill hae to conince the priate sector to

comply$ The Sno#den lea*s #eren/t the -rst to indicate that the NSA is inoled ine6ploiting commercial security$ According to a 2!2 Ne# or* Times report, theNSA deeloped a #orm, du))ed 8Stu6net, to cripple Iranian nuclear centri+uges$But the #orm, #hich e6ploited +our preiously un*no#n a#s in Cicroso+t:indo#s, escaped the Iranian nuclear plant and @uic*ly )egan damagingcomputers around the #orld$ The NSA and Israeli o1icials hae also )een tied to 8Dlame, a irus that

impersonated a Cicroso+t update to spy on Iranian computers$ Eanee Eines, an NSA spo*es#oman, said the U$S$

goernment 8is as concerned as the pu)lic is #ith the security o+ these products$ 8The United States pursues itsintelligence mission #ith care to ensure that innocent users o+ those same technologies are not a1ected, she said$

According to Eines, the NSA relies on the same encryption standards it recommends tothe pu)lic to protect its o#n classi-ed net#or*s$ 8:e do not ma*e recommendations that #e

cannot stand )ehind +or protecting national security systems and data, she said$ 8The actiity o+ NSA in setting

standards has made the Internet a +ar sa+er place to communicate and do )usiness$ But due to concernoer the NSA damaging Internet security, the president/s reie# group onsureillance issues recommended that the U$S$ goernment promise not to 8in any#ay su)ert, undermine, #ea*en, or ma*e ulnera)le generally aaila)lecommercial encryption$ 8>ncryption is an essential )asis +or trust on the Internet ;#ithout such trust, alua)le communications #ould not )e possi)le, the group #rote in

its report, #hich #as released in ?ecem)er$ 8(or the entire system to ork, encryption

softare itself must be trustorthy $ The :hite Fouse/s cy)ersecurity coordinator said that

disclosing security a#s "usually ma*es sense$" In response to the report, the administration adopted a ne# policyon #hether the NSA can e6ploit 8<erodaysGulnera)ilities that haen/t )een discoered )y anyone else yet$

According to the :hite Fouse, there is a 8)ias to#ard pu)licly disclosing a#s in security unless 8there is a clear

national security or la# en+orcement need$ In a )log post Conday, Cichael ?aniel, the :hiteFouse/s cy)ersecurity coordinator, said that disclosing security a#s 8usuallyma*es sense$ 8Building up a huge stoc*pile o+ undisclosed ulnera)ilities #hile leaing the Internet

ulnera)le and the American people unprotected #ould not )e in our national security interest, he said$ But?aniel added that, in some cases, disclosing a ulnera)ility means that the U$S$#ould 8+orego an opportunity to collect crucial intelligence that could th#art aterrorist attac*, stop the the+t o+ our nation/s intellectual property, or een discoermore dangerous ulnera)ilities$ Fe said that the goernment #eighs a ariety o+ +actors, such as the

ris* o+ leaing the ulnera)ility unpatched, the li*elihood that anyone else #ould discoer it, and ho# important

the potential intelligence is$ )ut privacy advocates and many business groups arestill uncomfortable ith the U"S" keeping security *as secret" And many

don+t trust that the NSA #ill only e6ploit the ulnera)ilities #ith the mostpotential +or intelligence and least opportunity +or other hac*ers$ 8The sureillance)ureaucracy really doesn/t hae a lot o+ sel+imposed limits$ They #ant to geteerything , said >d Blac*, the 5>0 o+ the 5omputer H 5ommunications Industry

Association, #hich represents companies including oogle, Cicroso+t, ahoo, andSprint$ 8No# I thin* people dealing #ith that )ureaucracy hae to understand they can/t ta*e anything +or



granted$ Cost computer net#or*s are run )y priate companies, and the

government must ork closely ith the private sector to improve

cybersecurity" )ut companies have become reluctant to share security

information ith the U"S" government, fearing the NSA could use any

info rmation to hack into their systems$ 8:hen you #ant to go into partnership

#ith some)ody and #or* on serious issuesGsuch as cy)ersecurityGyou #ant to*no# you/re )eing told the truth, Blac* said$ oogle and one other cy)ersecurity -rm

discoered 8Feart)leedGa critical a# in a #idely used Internet encryption toolGin Carch$ The companies noti-ed a +e# other priatesector groups a)out thepro)lem, )ut no one told the U$S$ goernment until April$ 8In+ormation you share#ith the NSA might )e used to hurt you as a company, #arned Ash*an Soltani, a technical

consultant #ho has #or*ed #ith tech companies and helped The :ashington 4ost #ith its coerage o+ the

Sno#den documents$ Fe said that company o1icials hae historically discussedcy)ersecurity issues #ith the NSA, )ut that he #ouldn/t )e surprised i+ thoserelationships are no# strained$ Fe pointed to ne#s that the NSA posed asDace)oo* to in+ect computers #ith mal#are$ 8That does a lot o+ harm to

companies/ )rands, Soltani said$ &he NSA+s actions have also made it diicult for

the U"S" to set international norms for cybercon*ict" Dor seeral years, theU$S$ has tried to pressure 5hina to scale )ac* its cy)erspying operations, #hichallegedly steal trade secrets +rom U$S$ )usinesses$ Jason Fealey, the director o+ the5y)er Statecra+t Initiatie at the Atlantic 5ouncil, said the U$S$ has 8militari<ed

cy)er policy$ “&he U nited S tates has been saying that the orld needs to

operate according to certain norms, # he said$ “%t is diicult to get the norms

that e ant because it appears to the rest of the orld that e only ant

to follo the norms that e think are important"# Eines, the NSA spo*es#oman,

emphasi<ed that the NSA #ould neer hac* into +oreign net#or*s to gie domestic companies a competitie edge

as 5hina is accused o+ doing3$ 8:e do not use +oreign intelligence capa)ilities to steal the trade secrets o+ +oreign

companies on )ehal+ o+Gor gie intelligence #e collect toGU$S$ companies to enhance their international

competitieness or increase their )ottom line, she said$ Jim =e#is, a senior +ello# #ith the 5enter +or Strategic

and International Studies, agreed that NSA spying to stop terrorist attac*s is +undamentally di1erent +rom 5hinastealing )usiness secrets to )oost its o#n economy$ Fe also said there is #idespread misunderstanding o+ ho# the

NSA #or*s, )ut he ac*no#ledged that there is a “trust problemG%usti-ed or not$ Fepredicted that re)uilding trust #ith the tech community #ill )e one o+ the topchallenges +or Ci*e ogers, #ho #as s#orn in as the ne# NSA director earlier thismonth$ 8All the tech companies are in arying degrees unhappy and not eager tohae a close relationship #ith NSA, =e#is said$

The risk of cyberterrorism is high!e"#erts agree that

adversaries have the technical skills and #olitical motivation to

carry out a dangerous cyberattack)urg, -rincipal US . /lobal 0ybersecurity eader, 14

?aid, Cichael 5ompton 4rincipal, 5y)ersecurity Strategy H 0perations, 4eterFarries 4rincipal, Fealth Industries, John Funt 4rincipal, 4u)lic Sector, Car*=o)el 4rincipal, Technology, >ntertainment, Cedia H 5ommunications, ary=oeland 4rincipal, 5onsumer and Industrial 4roducts H Serices, Joe Nocera4rincipal, Dinancial Serices, ?ae oath 4artner, is* Assurance, "US cy)ercrimeK



ising ris*s, reduced readiness Ley -ndings +rom the 2! US State o+ 5y)ercrimeSurey", June 2!, cosponsored )y The 5>T ?iision o+ the So+t#are>ngineering Institute at 5arnegie Cellon Uniersity, 5S0 maga<ine, United StatesSecret Serice, ###$p#c$com&us&en&increasingite1ectieness&pu)lications&assets&2!usstateo+cy)ercrime$pd+

(e6perts

(other nations hae )etter cy)ersecurity programs ussia

&he risks and repercussions of cybercrime In this !2th surey o+ cy)ercrimetrends, more than M US e6ecuties, security e6perts, and others +rom the pu)licand priate sectors o1ered a loo* into their cy)ersecurity practices and state o+ris* and readiness to com)at eoling cy)er threats and threat agents$ 0ne thing is

ery clearK &he cybersecurity programs of US organi2ations do not rival the

persistence, tactical skills, and technological proess of their potential

cyber adversaries" Today, common criminals , organi<ed crime rings, and nationstates leerage sophisticated techni@ues to launch attac*s that are highly targeted

and ery di1icult to detect$ 4articularly #orrisome are attac*s )y tremendously s*illed threat actors that

attempt to steal highly sensitieGand o+ten ery alua)leGintellectual property, priate communications, and

other strategic assets and in+ormation$ It is a threat that is nothing short o+ +ormida)le$ In +act, the US?irector o+ National Intelligence has ran*ed cy)ercrime as the top nationalsecurity threat, higher than that o+ terrorism, espionage, and #eapons o+ massdestruction$! Underscoring the threat, the DBI last year noti-ed 7, US companiesGranging +rom small

)an*s, ma%or de+ense contractors, and leading retailersGthat they had )een ictims o+ cy)er intrusions$ “&he

U nited S tates faces real 3cybersecurity threats +rom criminals, terrorists,spies, and malicious cy)er actors , said DBI ?irector James B$ 5omey at a recent

security con+erence$2 8The playground is a ery dangerous place right no#$ Nation$state actors pose

a particularly pernicious threat , according to Sean Joyce, a 4#5 principal and

+ormer DBI deputy director #ho +re@uently testi-ed )e+ore the US Fouse and Senate Intelligencecommittees$ 8 5e are seeing increased activity from nation$state actors, hich

could escalate due to unrest in Syria, %ran, and 6ussia, he said$ 8These groupsmay target -nancial serices and other critical in+rastructure entities$ In today/s

olatile cy)ercrime enironment, nationstates and other criminals continually andrapidly update their tactics to maintain an adantage against adances in securitysa+eguards implemented )y )usinesses and goernment agencies$ ecently, +or instance,

hac*ers engineered a ne# round o+ distri)uted denial o+ serice ??oS3 attac*s that can generate tra1ic rated ata staggering giga)its per second, the most po#er+ul ??oS assaults to date$

Cyber attacks are frequent and devastating$ %very attack

increases the risk of e"istential catastro#he$

Nolan &' — Andrew Nolan, Legislative Attorney at the Congressional Research

Service, former Trial Attorney at the United States Department of !stice, holds a

"D" from #eorge $ashington University, %&'( )*Cy+ersec!rity and nformation

Sharing- Legal Challenges and Sol!tions,. CRS Report to Congress, /arch '0th,

Availa+le 1nline at http-22fas"org2sgp2crs2intel2R3453'"pdf , Accessed &67&(7%&'(, p"

'748

http://www.pwc.com/us/en/increasing-it-effectiveness/publications/assets/2014-us-state-of-cybercrime.pdf


http://fas.org/sgp/crs/intel/R43941.pdf



http://fas.org/sgp/crs/intel/R43941.pdf



ntrod!ction

1ver the co!rse of the last year, a host of cy+erattac9s' have +een perpetrated on

a n!m+er of high #ro(le American companies " n an!ary %&'3, Target anno!nced

that hac9ers, !sing malware,% had digitally impersonated one of the retail giant:s

contractors,4 stealing vast amo!nts of data—incl!ding the names, mailing

addresses, phone n!m+ers or email addresses for !p to 6& million individ!als andthe credit card information of 3& million shoppers"3 Cy+erattac9s in ;e+r!ary and

/arch of %&'3 potentially e<posed contact and log7in information of e=ay:s

c!stomers, prompting the online retailer to as9 its more than %&& million !sers to

change their passwords"( n Septem+er, it was revealed that over the co!rse of >ve

months cy+er7criminals tried to steal the credit card information of more than >fty

million shoppers of the world:s largest home improvement retailer, ?ome Depot"0

1ne month later, "@" /organ Chase, the largest U"S" +an9 +y assets, disclosed that

contact information for a+o!t 60 million ho!seholds was capt!red in a cy+erattac9

earlier in the year"6 n perhaps the most infamo!s cy+erattac9 of %&'3, in late

Novem+er, Sony @ict!res ntertainment s!Bered a *signi>cant system disr!ption.

as a res!lt of a *+raen cy+er attac9.

that res!lted in the lea9ing of the personaldetails of tho!sands of Sony employees"5 And in ;e+r!ary of %&'(, the health care

provider Anthem =l!e Cross =l!e Shield Eend page 'F disclosed that a *very

sophisticated attac9. o+tained personal information relating to the company:s

c!stomers and employees"'&

The high pro>le cy+erattac9s of %&'3 and early %&'( appear to +e indicative of a

broader trend- the fre)uency and ferocity of cy+erattac9s are increasing,''

posing grave threats to the national interests of the United States" ndeed,

the attac9s on Target, e=ay, ?ome Depot, "@" /organ7Chase, Sony @ict!res, and

Anthem were only a few of the many p!+licly disclosed cy+erattac9s perpetrated in

%&'3 and %'&("'% <perts s!ggest that h!ndreds of tho!sands of other entities may

have s!Bered similar incidents d!ring the same period,'4 with one s!rvey indicating

that *+, of >rms in the United States had e<perienced a data +reach in the past

year"'3 /oreover, G!st as the cy+erattac9s of %&'4—which incl!ded incidents

involving companies li9e the New Hor9 Times, ;ace+oo9, Twitter, Apple, and

/icrosoft'(—were eclipsed +y those that occ!rred in %&'3,'0 the consensus vie- is

that %&'( and +eyond will witness more fre)uent and more so#histicated cy+er

incidents"'6 To the e<tent that its e<pected rise o!tpaces any corresponding rise in

the a+ility to defend against s!ch attac9s, the res!lt co!ld +e tro!+ling news for

co!ntless +!sinesses that rely more and more on comp!ters in all aspects of their

operations, as the economic losses res!lting from a single cy+erattac9 can +e

e"tremely costly"' And the res!lting eBects of a cy+erattac9 can have eBects

+eyond a single company:s +ottom line" As *nations are +ecoming ever moredependent on information and information technology,.'5 the threat posed +y any

one cy+erattac9 Eend page %F can have * devastating collateral and cascading

e.ects across a -ide range of #hysical/ economic and social systems".%&

$ith reports that foreign nations —s!ch as R!ssia, China, ran, and North Iorea —

may +e !sing cy+erspace as a ne- front to -age -ar,%' fears a+o!nd that a

cy+erattac9 co!ld +e !sed to shut do-n the nation’s electrical grid,%% hi0ack a

commercial airliner,%4 or even launch a nuclear -ea#on -ith a single



keystroke"%3 n short, the potential e<ists that the United States co!ld s!Ber a

* cyber 1earl 2arbor,. an attac9 that wo!ld * ca!se #hysical destruction and

loss of life.%( and e<pose—in the words of one prominent cy+ersec!rity e<pert

—* vulnerabilities of staggering #ro#ortions".%0

A cyberattack -ould trigger military retaliation and escalate

to nuclear -ar

o)ert &ilford 17, raduate US Army Air)orne School, Dt$ Benning, eorgia,

85y)er attac*ers could shut do#n the electric grid +or the entire east coast 2!2,httpK&&###$e6aminer$com&article&cy)erattac*erscouldeasilyshutdo#ntheelectricgrid+ortheentireeastcoa (((#e don/t agree #ith the a)leist language

(po#er grids no )ac*up generators

(radar systems go )lan*

(no communication

(launch nuclear #eapons )ecause #e don/t *no# #hat the +uc* is going on

To ma*e matters #orse a cyber attack that can ta*e out a ciilian po#er grid , +or e6ample

could also cripple 8destroy9 the U"S" military $ The senator notes that is that the same po#ergrids that supply cities and to#ns, stores and gas stations, cell to#ers and heart monitors also

po#er 8every military base in our country$ 8Although )ases #ould )e prepared to#eather a short po#er outage #ith )ac*up diesel generators, #ithin ho!rs, not days, +uel

supplies #ould run out, he said$ :hich means military c ommand and c ontrol centers

could go dark $ adar systems that detect air threats to our country #ould shut ?o#n

completely$ 85ommunication )et#een commanders and their troops #ould also go silent$

And many #eapons systems #ould )e le+t #ithout either +uel or electric po#er, said

Senator rassley$ 8So in a fe short hours or days, the mightiest military in the #orld

#ould )e le+t scram)ling to maintain )ase +unctions, he said$ :e contacted the4entagon and o1icials con-rmed the threat o+ a cy)er attac* is something very

real$ Top national security o1icialsGincluding the 5hairman o+ the Joint 5hie+s, the ?irector o+ the National

Security Agency, the Secretary o+ ?e+ense, and the 5IA ?irectorG hae said, 8preenting a cy)er attac* and

improing the nation/s electric grids is among the most urgent priorities o+ our country sourceK 5ongressional

ecord3$ So ho# serious is the 4entagon ta*ing all thisO >nough to start, or end a #ar oer it, +or sure$ A cy)er attac*

today against the US could ery #ell )e seen as an “Act of 5ar# and could )e met #ith

a 8+ull scale US military response$ That could include the use o+ “nuclear

eapons#, i+ authori<ed )y the 4resident$

Successful ac)uisition causes nuclear s#oo(ng – e"tinction

3arrett et al$ &+—@hD in ngineering and @!+lic @olicy from Carnegie /ellon

University, ;ellow in the RAND Stanton N!clear Sec!rity ;ellows @rogram, and

Director of Research at #lo+al Catastrophic Ris9 nstit!te—AND Seth =a!m, @hD in

#eography from @ennsylvania State University, Research Scientist at the =l!e

/ar+le Space nstit!te of Science, and <ec!tive Director of #lo+al Catastrophic

http://www.examiner.com/article/cyber-attackers-could-easily-shut-down-the-electric-grid-for-the-entire-east-coa






Ris9 nstit!te—AND Ielly ?ostetler, =S in @olitical Science from Col!m+ia and

Research Assistant at #lo+al Catastrophic Ris9 nstit!te )Anthony, %3 !ne %&'4,

*Analying and Red!cing the Ris9s of nadvertent N!clear $ar =etween the United

States and R!ssia,. Science J #lo+al Sec!rity- The Technical =asis for Arms Control,

Disarmament, and Nonproliferation nitiatives, Kol!me %', ss!e %, Taylor J ;rancis8

$ar involving signi>cant fractions of the U"S" and R!ssian n!clear arsenals , whichare +y far the largest of any nations, co!ld have globally catastro#hic e.ects

s!ch as severely reducing food #roduction for years, ' potentially leading to collapse

of modern civiliation worldwide, and even the e"tinction of h!manity" % N!clear war

+etween the United States and R!ssia co!ld occ!r +y vario!s ro!tes, incl!ding

accident al or !na!thoried la!nch deli+erate >rst attac9 +y one nation and inadvertent attac9" n an

accidental or !na!thoried la!nch or detonation, system safeg!ards or proced!res

to maintain control over n!clear weapons fail in s!ch a way that a n!clear weapon

or missile la!nches or e<plodes witho!t direction from leaders " n a deli+erate >rst attac9,

the attac9ing nation decides to attac9 +ased on acc!rate information a+o!t the state of aBairs" n an inadvertent

attac9, the attac9ing nation mista9enly concl!des that it is !nder attac9 and la!nches n!clear weapons in what it

+elieves is a co!nterattac9" 4 )=rin9manship strategies incorporate elements of all of the a+ove, in that they involve

intentional manip!lation of ris9s from otherwise accidental or inadvertent la!nches" 3 8 1ver the years, n!clearstrategy was aimed primarily at minimiing ris9s of intentional attac9 thro!gh development of deterrence

capa+ilities, and n!mero!s meas!res also were ta9en to red!ce pro+a+ilities of accidents, !na!thoried attac9, and

inadvertent war" ;or p!rposes of deterrence, +oth U"S" and Soviet2R!ssian forces have

maintained signi>cant capa+ilities to have some forces s!rvive a >rst attac9 +y the

other side and to la!nch a s!+seM!ent co!nter7attac9" ?owever, concerns a+o!t the

e<treme disr!ptions that a >rst attac9 wo!ld ca!se in the other sides forces and

command7and7control capa+ilities led to +oth sides: development of capa+ilities to

detect a >rst attac9 and la!nch a co!nter7attac9 +efore s!Bering damage from the

>rst attac9" ( /any people +elieve that with the end of the Cold $ar and with

improved relations +etween the United States and R!ssia, the ris9 of ast7$est n!clear

war was signi>cantly red!ced" 0 ?owever, it also has +een arg!ed that inadvertent

n!clear war +etween the United States and R!ssia has contin!ed to present asubstantial risk" 6 $hile the United States and R!ssia are not actively threatening

each other with war, they have remained ready to launch nuclear missiles in

response to indications of attac9" ;alse indicators of n!clear attac9 co!ld +e ca!sed in several ways"

;irst, a wide range of events have already +een mista9enly interpreted as indicators of attac9, incl!ding weather

phenomena, a fa!lty comp!ter chip, wild animal activity, and control7room training tapes loaded at the wrong time"

5 Second, terrorist grou#s or other actors might cause attacks on either the United

States or R!ssia that resemble some 9ind of nuclear attack by the other nation

+y actions s!ch as e<ploding a stolen or improvised n!clear +om+, '& especially if

s!ch an event occ!rs d!ring a crisis +etween the United States and R!ssia" '' A variety

of n!clear terrorism scenarios are #ossible" '% Al Oaeda has so!ght to o+tain or

constr!ct n!clear weapons and to !se them against the United States" '4 1ther methods

co!ld involve attempts to circ!mvent n!clear weapon la!nch control safeg!ards or e<ploit holes in their sec!rity" '3

t has long +een arg!ed that the pro+a+ility of inadvertent n!clear war is signi>cantly higher

d!ring U"S"PR!ssian crisis conditions, '( with the C!+an /issile Crisis +eing a prime historical

e<ample" t is possi+le that U"S"PR!ssian relations will signi>cantly deteriorate in the f!t!re, increasing n!clear

tensions" There are a variety of ways for a third party to raise tensions +etween the

United States and R!ssia, ma9ing one or +oth nations more li9ely to misinterpret

events as attac9s"



That’s key to cybersecurity

&$ 3ackdoors make cyberterrorism a ticking time bomb

Sene!ue 14 areth, I5T pro+essional #ith a particular +ocus on UNIP

Architecture H ?esign, holds a degree in 4hilosophy&4olitics +rom the Uniersity o+Sydney, Ale6 5omninos, an independent researcher +ocusing on in+ormation andcommunications technology and politics, a ?octoral 5andidate at Justus=ie)igUniersity in iessen, ermany at the ?epartment o+ eography, #here he isconducting doctoral research on the challenges and constraints o+ the use o+ usergenerated geographic in+ormation systems in >gypt, =i)ya, and North and Sudanin 2! to 2!!, "5y)er security, ciil society and ulnera)ility in an age o+communications sureillance", 2!, Justus=ie)ig Uniersity iessen and eist5onsulting, gis#atch$org&en&communicationssureillance&cy)ersecurityciilsocietyandulnera)ilityagecommunicationssur

The releance o+ Sno#den/s disclosures to cy)er security The scope and reach o+

the NSA/s sureillance is important$ &he NSA+s surveillance posture is Q as has )een

repeated )y eneral Leith Ale6ander, and is reected in the NSA slide in Digure ! Q to :collect it all:K72

+rom undersea ca)le taps, to ahoo ideo chats, to inight :iDi, to irtual #orlds

and online multiplayer games li*e Second =i+e and :orld o+ :arcra+t$ The NSA has at least three di1erent

programmes to get ahoo and oogle user data$ This sho#s that they try to get the same data +rom multiple

mechanisms$77 :ith the 5FR under the CUS5U=A programme it hac*ed into the internal data lin*s o+ oogle

and ahoo7 +or in+ormation that it could mostly hae gotten through the 4ISC programme$ In addition tohighlighting the NSA/s massie institutional oerreach and glo)al priacy inasion,

Snoden+s disclosures also highlight the many points at hich our data is

insecure, and the vast numbers of vulnerabilities to sureillance that e;ist

throughout our digital #orld$ Fo#eer, #hile the NSA is the largest threat in thesureillance game, it is not the only threat$ oernments all around the #orld are

using the internet to sureil their citi<ens$ 0onsidering the rate of

technological change, it is not unforeseeable that the methods , tools and

vulnerabilities used by the NSA ill be the tools of states, cyber criminals

and lo$skilled hackers of the future" egardless o+ #ho the perceied attac*er

or sureillance operatie may )e, and #hether it is the NSA or not, large$scale,

mass surveillance is a groing cyber security threat" It has also )een disclosed that

the NSA and 5FR hae actiely #or*ed to ma*e internet and technology users aroundthe #orld less secure$ &he NSA has placed backdoors in routers running vital

internet infrastructures$7M The 5FR has impersonated social net#or*ing #e)sites li*e =in*edIn in

order to target system administrators o+ internet serice proiders$7 The NSA has )een #or*ing #iththe 5FR to hac* into oogle and ahoo data centres$7 &he NSA also orks to

undermine encryption technologies , )y coertly inuencing the use o+ #ea*algorithms and random num)er generators in encryption products andstandards$7 The NSA in its o#n #ords is #or*ing under the BU==UN programmeto "insert ulnera)ilities into commercial encryption systems, IT systems,net#or*s, and endpoint communications deices used )y targets" and to 8inuencepolicies, standards and speci-cations +or commercial VencryptionW technologies$79



&he NSA is also believed to hoard knoledge about vulnerabilities rather

than sharing them ith developers, vendors and the general public, as

ell as even maintaining a catalogue of these vulnerabilities for use in

surveillance and cyber attacks$! None o+ these actiities sere to ma*e theinternet more secure$ In +act, they do the ery opposite$ As US 5ongress#oman

Xoe =o+gren commentedK 8:hen any industry or organisation )uilds a )ac*door toassist #ith electronic sureillance into their product, they put all o+ our data

security at ris*$ %f a backdoor is created for la enforcement purposes, it+s

only a matter of time before a hacker e;ploits it, in +act #e hae already seenit happen$"2

4$ Norms!Curtailing surveillance is key to e.ective norms

building!that #revents cyber-arfare

(arrell 7<1=, Fenry Darrell, 4h? in oernment +rom eorgeto#n Uniersity,

Associate 4ro+essor o+ 4olitical Science and International A1airs, April 2!M,

4romoting Norms +or 5y)erspace, 5ouncil on Doreign elations,httpK&&###$c+r$org&cy)ersecurity&promotingnormscy)erspace&p77MOcid.nlcpressYreleasepressYnotelin*22!MHspYmid.7M!!7HspYrid.:tp):EyeUBoc7XDM=nE<S

()uild norms so+t po#er is necessary S4US 5004>ATI0N

(no one is listening to us rn

(ATK Treaties no one listens to them

U$S$ policyma*ers argue that the U nited S tates and others need to )uild norms to mitigatecy)ersecurity pro)lems$ Admiral Cichael S$ ogers, head o+ the National Security Agency NSA3 and

5y)er 5ommand, has argued that shared norms are a )asic )uilding )loc* +or cy)ersecurity$ Fe has called onactors in academia and ciil society to help design them and to assist in their spread$ It may seem strange that

4entagon o1icials are arguing +or so+t tools rather than hard military options, )ut there are +our

good reasons #hy norms are the )est option aaila)le$ Dirst, the United States is

vulnerable to cyberattacks and this #ea*ness is di1icult to address usingconentional tools o+ military statecra+t$ Second, it is di1icult to ensure that comple6in+ormation systems are +ully de+ended, since they may hae su)tle technical#ea*nesses$ Third, classical deterrence is not easy in a #orld #here it is o+tenchallenging to identi+y sophisticated attac*ers, or een to *no# #hen an attac* has ta*en place$

=astly, treaties are hard to en+orce )ecause it is so di1icult to eri+y compliance Gparticularly in cy)erspace, #here #eapons are so+t#are, not missiles$ Although norms are ha<ier than

treaty rules, they may still hae important conse@uences$ Norms against the use o+ nuclear #eapons hae ta*en

hold since the !9Ms, ma*ing their use nearly unthin*a)le in ordinary circumstances$ o)ustcy)ersecurity norms might, oer time, rule out some *inds o+ attac*s asnormatiely inappropriate$ They might encourage other states to see norm )reachesas attac*s on their security, too, spurring cooperation to preent or stop attac*s$ Dinally,norms can proide shared understandings )et#een states that allo# them to #or*together #here they hae shared interests and manage relations #here their interests clash$ 5hallenges to

Norm 4romotion It is hard to spread norms, een in the )est circumstances$ Un+ortunately,

these are +ar +rom the )est circumstances +or the United States$ U$S$ policyma*ers +ace

http://www.cfr.org/cybersecurity/promoting-norms-cyberspace/p36358?cid=nlc-press_release-press_note--link2-20150406&sp_mid=48385113&sp_rid=YWtpbWVyeUBoc3RvZGF5LnVzS0








three ma%or pro)lems$ Dirst, it is easiest to promote norms #hen one can ino*e common alues to support them, yet the #orld's cy)er po#ers hae di1erentGand radically incompati)leGalues oer ho# to protect cy)erspace$

The clashing interests )et#een democratic and authoritarian regimes on the alue o+ an open Internet and

de-nitions o+ security ma*e e1ectie glo)al treaties impossi)le$ Second, the potential adopters o+ normsare li*ely to )e more receptie i+ they do not thin* the proponent o+ the norms isacting in )ad +aith$ To )e sure, many states #ere happy to use the Sno#den

reelations as a coer +or opposition to any rules o+ )ehaior :ashington mighto1er$ But +or others, eorts at persuasion have been damaged by the e;posed

gap beteen U"S" rhetoric and actions$ At the ery least, other states must )e persuaded that

+ollo#ing a norm is in their national interest$ The disclosures, ho#eer, rein+orced the ie# o+ many states that the

United States disproportionately )ene-ts +rom an open, glo)al, and secure Internet, and is only committed to

these alues to the e6tent that they +urther U$S$ economic, political, and military o)%ecties$ In light o+ theSno#den disclosures , the U nited S tates is poorly placed to persuade other actorso+ its good +aith or its commitment to shared interests and alues$ The e6tent o+ thedamage to the U$S$ reputation #as reealed #hen the United States accused NorthLorea o+ hac*ing into Sony's serers and announced its intention to retaliate against North Lorea

through lo#leel sanctions$ Building on preious indictments o+ 5hinese soldiers +or hac*ing into U$S$ -rms, U$S$

o1icials +ollo#ed an approach o+ "naming and shaming" cy)erattac*ers #hile pursuing sanctions and possi)lecriminal charges$ These actions are highly unli*ely to result in success+ul prosecutions, )ut potentially sere a

normatie purpose )y signaling to the #orld that some actions are unaccepta)le$ Although a +e# states critici<ed

North Lorea, many did not )uy U$S$ claims that 4yongyang #as responsi)le$ Cem)erso+ the )usiness and technology communities also e6pressed polite s*epticism oer the

eidence supplied )y the Dederal Bureau o+ Inestigation$

+$ Trust!The SS5A -ould rebuild trust bet-een the

government and the #rivate sector!that’s key to cybersecurity

>e2ima, reporter ? &he 5ashington -ost, 1=

Latie, "0)ama signs e6ecutie order on sharing cy)ersecurity threat in+ormation",De) !2 2!M, ###$#ashingtonpost$com&)logs&postpolitics&#p&2!M&2&!2&o)amatosigne6ecutieorderoncy)ersecuritythreats&

(goernment and industry aren/t #or*ing together

(ATK P0 that %ust ma*es communication easier doesn/t mandate it

(encryption sets up pro)lems #ith priate and pu)lic sectors

4A=0 A=T0, 5ali+$ Q 4resident 0)ama signed an e6ecutie order Driday that urgescompanies to share cy)ersecuritythreat in+ormation #ith one another and the+ederal goernment$ 0)ama signed the order, #hich is adisory in nature, at the -rst :hite Fouse summit

on 5y)ersecurity and 5onsumer 4rotection at Stan+ord Uniersity here$ The summit, #hich +ocused on pu)licpriate partnerships and consumer protection, is part o+ a recent :hite Fouse push to +ocus on cy)ersecurity$

0)ama said the prospect o+ cy)erattac*s are one o+ the nation's most pressing national security, economic and

sa+ety issues$ The specter o+ a cy)erattac* crippling the nation's air tra1ic control system or a city #ith a )lac*out

is real, and hac*s such as the one on Sony 4ictures last year are "hurting America's companies and costing American %o)s$" Fe also said they are a threat to the security and #ell)eing o+ children #ho are online$ "It/s one

o+ the great parado6es o+ our time that the ery technologies that empo#er us to do great good can also )e usedto undermine us and inict great harm," 0)ama said )e+ore a cheering, +riendly audience here at Stan+ord's

Cemorial Auditorium$ The order the president signed here encourages the deelopmento+ central clearinghouses +or companies and the goernment to share data andcreation o+ centers #here data can )e shared across speci-c geographic regions$0)ama pushed +or colla)oration )et#een the pu)lic and priate sectors$ :&here+s

only one ay to defend America from these cyber threats, and that is

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/02/12/obama-to-sign-executive-order-on-cybersecurity-threats/






through government and industry orking together , sharing appropriate

information as true partners,: he said$ Caster5ard chie+ e6ecutie A%ay Banga

praised 0)ama/s e6ecutie action )ut said that eventually “e need a real

legislative solution $ An e6ecutie action can only ta*e you this +ar$ 8ather than -ght

this in indiiduali<ed groups, there/s some merit in %oining hands and doing it together, Banga said$ 0)ama's

order is part o+ a )roader :hite Fouse e1ort to )ee+ up the nation's cy)ersecurityin+rastructure, something the administration #ants to push on 5apitol Fill$ =ast

month 0)ama proposed legislation that #ould shield companies +rom la#suits +or sharing threat data #ith thegoernment$ =ast month he proposed legislation that #ould shield companies +rom la#suits +or sharing threat

data #ith the goernment$ 0)ama said shortly a+ter he too* o1ice he reali<ed that cy)ersecurity is "one o+ the

most serious economic national security challenges that #e +ace as a nation" and made con+ronting them a

priority$ 0)ama has signed other e6ecutie orders, including one that calls +or the creation o+ oluntary standardsto )olster the security o+ computer net#or*s in critical industries and a +rame#or* +or cy)ersecurity and another

last year to protect consumers +rom identity the+t$ So +ar nothing has )een a)le to stem the tide o+ attac*s such as

the one against Sony or others against retailers including Fome ?epot$ Both priacy groups and Silicon Ealley companies hae said they #ould oppose the legislation 0)ama proposed last

month unless reforms are 'rst made to the NSA@s surveillance program " In an

interie# #ith e&5ode, 0)ama ac*no#ledged tensions #ith Silicon Ealley a+ter the NSA disclosures$ " &he

Snoden disclosures """ ere really harmful in terms of the trust beteenthe government and many of these companies , in part )ecause it had animpact on their )ottom lines ," 0)ama said$ The president also said that there should )e a "pu)lic

conersation" a)out encryption and said he li*ely leans more to#ard strong data encryption than la#

en+orcement, )ut is sympathetic to them )ecause o+ the pressure they are under to *eep people sa+e$ U$S$goernment sureillance actiities hae )een seen as a potential lia)ility +or techcompanies that operate glo)ally$ 8Seenty to percent o+ the user )ases +or a lot o+ these companies

are the +oreigners #ho get ery little protection under our system, e6plained Julian Sanche<, a senior +ello#

+ocused on technology and ciil li)erties at the 5ato Institute$ 8I+ they don/t display some push )ac*, they *no#

they #on/t do ery #ell #ith those mar*ets$ In ?ecem)er o+ 2!7, ma%or tech companiesincluding Apple, oogle, T#itter, Dace)oo*, Cicroso+t and ahoo %oined together inthe e+orm oernment Sureillance coalition, urging the 4resident and 5ongress

to impose restrictions and oersight measures on U$S$ spying programs$ The4resident agreed in principle to some limits on spying programs, including the )ul*

collection o+ domestic phone records, during a speech last year$ But progress on reforms has

been too slo +or some priacy adocates , as the administration urged +orlegislatie action that has yet to succeed$ Tech companies , mean#hile, hae ta*ensome measures into their o#n hands )y strengthening and e;panding their

deployment o+ encryption to secure users' online actiities Q setting up a

con*ict beteen the companies and la enforcement ho arn that such

actions may make it harder for them to pursue crime and terrorism #hichincreasingly includes a digital component$ 8I thin* it/s +air to say that changes on the technology

+ront hae outpaced goernmental and legislatie e1orts, said Andre# 5roc*er, a legal +ello# at ciil li)ertiesgroup the >lectronic Drontier Doundation$

Only strong encry#tion can #reserve cybersecurity$

6ehl et al$ &' — Danielle Iehl, Senior @olicy Analyst at the 1pen Technology

nstit!te at the New America ;o!ndation, holds a ="A" in ?istory from Hale

University, with Andi $ilson, @olicy @rogram Associate at the 1pen Technology

nstit!te at the New America ;o!ndation, holds a /aster of #lo+al ABairs degree

from the /!n9 School at the University of Toronto, and Ievin =an9ston, @olicy

Director at the 1pen Technology nstit!te at the New America ;o!ndation, former



Senior Co!nsel and Director of the ;ree <pression @roGect at the Center for

Democracy J Technology, former Senior StaB Attorney at the lectronic ;rontier

;o!ndation, former !stice $illiam =rennan ;irst Amendment ;ellow at the American

Civil Li+erties Union, holds a "D" from the University of So!thern California Law

School, %&'( )*Doomed To Repeat ?istoryQ Lessons ;rom The Crypto $ars of the

'55&s,. Report +y the 1pen Technology nstit!te at the New America ;o!ndation,

!ne, Availa+le 1nline at https-22static"newamerica"org2attachments243&677

'%(2Lessons%&;rom%&the%&Crypto%&$ars%&of%&the

%&'55&s"%d0'(0dc'53'6a(fa('+'3d((%43f"pdf , Accessed &67&07%&'(, p" '58

Strong ncryption ?as =ecome A 3edrock Technology That @rotects The Sec!rity

1f The nternet

The evol!tion of the ecosystem for encrypted comm!nications has also enhanced

the protection of individ!al comm!nications and improved cy+ersec!rity" Today,

strong encryption is an essential ingredient in the overall sec!rity of the modern

networ9, and adopting technologies li9e ?TT@S is increasingly considered an

ind!stry +est7practice among maGor technology companies"'66 ven the report of

the @resident:s Review #ro!p on ntelligence and Comm!nications Technologies, the

panel of e<perts appointed +y @resident =arac9 1+ama to review the NSA:s

s!rveillance activities after the %&'4 Snowden lea9s, was une)uivocal in its

emphasis on the importance of strong encryption to protect data in transit and at

rest" The Review #ro!p wrote that-

ncryption is an essential +asis for tr!st on the nternet witho!t s!ch tr!st,

val!a+le comm!nications -ould not be #ossible " ;or the entire system to

wor9, encryption software itself m!st +e tr!stworthy" Users of encryption

m!st +e con>dent, and G!sti>a+ly con>dent, that only those people they

designate can decrypt their data" ndeed, in light of the massive increase in

cy+er7crime and intellect!al property theft on7line, the !se of encryptionsho!ld +e greatly e<panded to protect not only data in transit, +!t also data

at rest on networ9s, in storage, and in the clo!d"'6

The report f!rther recommended that the U"S" government sho!ld-

@romote sec!rityEF +y )'8 fully su##orting and not undermining eBorts to create

encryption standards )%8 ma9ing clear that it will not in any way s!+vert,

!ndermine, wea9en, or ma9e v!lnera+le generally availa+le commercial encryption

and )48 s!pporting eBorts to enco!rage the greater !se of encryption technology for

data in transit, at rest, in the clo!d, and in storage"'65

https://static.newamerica.org/attachments/3407--125/Lessons%20From%20the%20Crypto%20Wars%20of%20the%201990s.882d6156dc194187a5fa51b14d55234f.pdf








Plan TextThe United States federal government should substantially

curtail its use of backdoor encry#tion standards and metadatacollection #rograms$



InternetContention 4 is 7nternet:

Ne"t is the Cloud Com#uting Scenario:8omestic surveillance erodes American com#etitiveness in the

cloudcom#uting industry!other countries are using the

s#ecter of NSA surveillance as a selling #oint/ costing

American com#anies billions

ehl, -olicy Analyst at Ne America+s Bpen &echnology

%nstitute, 14

?aielle, Lein Ban*ston, 4olicy ?irectorat 0TI, o)yn reene, 4olicy 5ounsel at0TI, o)ert Corgus, esearch Associate at 0TI, "Sureillance 5ostsK The NSA's

Impact on the >conomy, Internet Dreedom H 5y)ersecurity", July 2!, Ne# America's 0pen Technology Institute 4olicy 4aper,httpsK&&###$ne#america$org&do#nloads&SureilanceY5ostsYDinal$pd+

(trust gap in s@uo

(#e)hosting serices are haing an economic +allout +oreign companies are)ene-ting

(! )illion dollar loss in 7 years

(long term drought +or this mar*et. econ collapse

5osts to the U$S$ 5loud 5omputing Industry and elated Business Trust in American )usinesses has ta*en a signi-cant hit s ince the initial reports on the 4ISC

program suggested that the NSA #as directly tapping into the serers o+ nine U$S$companies to o)tain customer data +or national security inestigations$2 The

:ashington 4ost/s original story on the program proo*ed an uproar in the media and prompted the 5>0s o+

seeral ma%or companies to deny *no#ledge o+ or participation in the program$29 The e6act nature o+ the re@uests

made through the 4ISC program #as later clari-ed,7 )ut the pu)lic attention on the relationship

beteen American companies and the NSA still created a signi'cant trust

gap , especially in industries #here users entrust companies to store sensitiepersonal and commercial data$ 8=ast year/s national security lea*s hae also had a commercial and

-nancial impact on American tech nology companies that hae proided these records, noted

epresentatie Bo) oodlatte, a prominent epu)lican leader and 5hairman o+ the Fouse Judiciary 5ommittee, in

Cay 2!$ 8They hae e6perienced )ac*lash +rom )oth American and +oreignconsumers and hae had their competitie standing in the glo)al mar*etplacedamaged $7! ien heightened concerns a)out the NSA/s a)ility to access data

stored )y U$S$ companies, it is no surprise that American companies oering

cloud computing and ebhosting services are among those e;periencing

the most acute economic fallout from NSA surveillance$ :ithin %ust a +e# #ee*s o+

the -rst disclosures, reports )egan to emerge that American cloud computing companies li*e ?rop)o6 and

Ama<on :e) Serices #ere starting to lose )usiness to oerseas competitors$72 The 5>0 o+ Artmotion, one o+S#it<erland/s largest o1shore hosting proiders, reported in July 2!7 that his company had seen a M percent

%ump in reenue since the -rst lea*s,77 an early sign that the country/s perceied neutrality and strong data and

https://www.newamerica.org/downloads/Surveilance_Costs_Final.pdf




priacy protections7 could potentially )e turned into a serious competitie adantage$7M (oreign

companies are clearly poised to bene't +rom gro#ing +ears a)out the securityrami-cations o+ *eeping data in the United States$ In a surey o+ 7 British and5anadian )usinesses released )y 4>> ! in January 2!,7 2M percent o+respondents indicated that they #ere moing data outside o+ the U$S$ as a result o+

the NSA reelations$ An oer#helming num)er o+ the companies sureyedindicated that security and data priacy #ere their top concerns, #ith ! percentstating that they 8#ant to *no# e6actly #here their data is )eing hosted$ Seentypercent #ere een #illing to sacri-ce per+ormance in order to ensure that theirdata #as protected$7 It appears that little consideration #as gien oer the past decade to the potential

economic repercussions i+ the NSA/s secret programs #ere reealed$7 This +ailure #as acutely demonstrated )y

the 0)ama Administration/s initial +ocus on reassuring the pu)lic that its programs primarily a1ect non

Americans, een though nonAmericans are also heay users o+ American companies/ products$ Dace)oo* 5>0Car* Xuc*er)erg put a -ne point on the issue, saying that the goernment 8)le# it in its response to the scandal$

Fe noted sarcasticallyK 8The goernment response #as, Z0h don/t #orry, #e/re not spying on any Americans$/ 0h,

#onder+ulK that/s really help+ul to companies Vli*e Dace)oo*W trying to sere people around the #orld, and that/sreally going to inspire con-dence in American internet companies$79 As Xuc*er)erg/s comments reect,

certain parts o+ the American technology industry are particularly ulnera)le tointernational )ac*lash since gro#th is heaily dependent on +oreign mar*ets$ Dore6ample, the U$S$ cloud computing industry has gro#n +rom an estimated [)illion in 2 to [!M )illion in 2!, #ith nearly M percent o+ #orld#ide cloudcomputing reenues coming +rom the U$S$ Street Institute/s January 2!policy study concluded that in the ne6t +e# years, ne# products and serices that

rely on cloud computing #ill )ecome increasingly perasie$ 80loud computing is

also the root of development for the emerging generation of 5eb$based

applications Ghome security, outpatient care, mo)ile payment, distance learning,e1icient energy use and drierless cars, #rites Street/s Steen Titch in the

study$ 8And it is a research area #here the United States is an undisputed

leader$! &his traCectory may be dramatically altered, hoever, as a

conse!uence of the NSA+s surveillance programs" Dconomic forecasts after

the Snoden leaks have predicted signi'cant, ongoing losses for the cloud$

computing industry in the ne;t fe years$ An August 2!7 study )y theIn+ormation Technology and Innoation Doundation ITID3 estimated that reelations

a)out the NSA /s 4ISC program could cost the American cloud computing industry [22to [7M )illion oer the ne6t three years$2 0n the lo# end, the ITID pro%ection suggests that U$S$

cloud computing proiders #ould lose ! percent o+ the +oreign mar*et share to >uropean or Asian competitors,

totaling in a)out [2!$M )illion in losses; on the highend, the [7M )illion -gure represents a)out 2 percent o+ the

companies/ +oreign mar*et share$ )ecause the cloud computing industry is undergoing

rapid groth right no Ga 2!2 artner study predicted glo)al spending oncloud computing #ould increase )y ! percent +rom 2!2 to 2!, compared to a

7 percent oerall gro#th rate in the tech industry as a #hole7G vendors in this

sector are particularly vulnerable to shifts in the market$ Dailing to recruitne# customers or losing a competitie adantage due to e6ploitation )y rialcompanies in other countries can @uic*ly lead to a d#indling mar*et share $ TheITID study +urther notes that 8the percentage lost to +oreign competitors could gohigher i+ +oreign goernments enact protectionist trade )arriers that e1ectiely cutout U$S$ proiders, citing early calls +rom erman data protection authorities tosuspend the U$S$>U Sa+e Far)or program #hich #ill )e discussed at length in the ne6t

section3$ As the Street 4olicy Study highlights, 8Ironically, the NSA turned the competitie



edge U$S$ companies hae in cloud computing into a lia)ility, especially in >urope$M In a

+ollo# up to the ITID study, Dorrester esearch analyst James Staten argued that the thin*tan*/s estimates #ere lo#, suggesting that the actual 'gure could be as high as

E1F< billion over three years$ Staten highlighted t#o additional impacts notconsidered in the ITID study$ The -rst is that U"S" customersGnot %ust +oreign companiesG

ould also avoid US cloud providers , especially +or international and oerseas)usiness$ The ITID study predicted that American companies #ould retain their domestic mar*et share, )ut

Staten argued that the economic )lo#)ac* +rom the reelations #ould )e +elt at home, too$ 8ou don/t haeto )e a Drench company, +or e6ample, to )e #orried a)out the US goernmentsnooping in the data a)out your Drench clients, he #rote$ Coreoer, the analysis highlighted

a second and 8+ar more costly impactK that foreign cloud providers, too, ould lose

as much as 7< percent of overseas and domestic business because of

similar spying programs conducted by other governments$ Indeed, the NSA

disclosures 8hae prompted a +undamental ree6amination o+ the role o+ intelligence serices in conductingcoordinated cross)order sureillance, according to a Noem)er 2!7 report )y 4riacy International on the

8Die >yes intelligence partnership )et#een the United States, the United Lingdom, 5anada, Australia, and Ne#

Xealand$ Staten predicts that as the sureillance landscape around the #orld )ecomes

more clear, it could hae a serious negatie impact on all hosting and outsourcingserices, resulting in a 2M percent decline in the oerall IT serices mar*et, ora)out [! )illion in losses$9 ecent reports suggest that things are, in +act,moing in the direction that analysts li*e 5astro and Staten suggested$M A sureyo+ !, 8VIn+ormation and 5ommunications Technology I5T3W decisionma*ers +rom Drance,

ermany, Fong Long, the UL, and the USA in De)ruary and Carch 2! +ound that the

disclosures “have had a direct impact on ho companies around the orld

think about %0& and cloud computing in particular $M! According to the data +rom NTT

5ommunications, percent o+ decisionma*ers are changing their purchasing)ehaior #hen it comes to the cloud, #ith the ast ma%ority indicating that thelocation o+ the data is ery important$ The results do not )ode #ell +or recruitmento+ ne# customers, eitherG2 percent o+ those currently not storing data in thecloud indicated that the reelations hae since preented them +rom moing theirI5T systems there$ And -nally, 2 percent suggested that they agree #ithproposals made )y erman 5hancellor Angela Cer*el in De)ruary 2! to hae separatedata net#or*s +or >urope, #hich #ill )e discussed in +urther detail in 4art III o+ this report$ 4roidingdirect eidence o+ this trend, Serint, a Eirginia)ased #e)hosting company,reported in June 2! that international clients hae declined )y as much as hal+,dropping +rom appro6imately percent o+ its )usiness to 7 percent since the

lea*s )egan$M2 5ith faith in U"S" companies on the decline, foreign

companies are stepping in to take advantage of shifting public perceptions$

As eorg Cascolo and Ben Scott predicted in a %oint paper pu)lished )y the :ilson 5enter and the Ne# America

Doundation in 0cto)er 2!7, 8Ca%or commercial actors on )oth continents are preparing o1ensie and de+ensie

strategies to )attle in the mar*et +or a competitie adantage dra#n +rom Sno#den/s reelations$M7 Dore6ample, un)o6, a small Nor#egian company that o1ers secure email serice,reported a 7 percent %ump in customers since June 2!7$M un)o6 mar*ets itsel+ as a sa+er

email and #e)hosting proider +or )oth indiidual and commercial customers, promising that it 8#ill neer

disclose any user data unauthori<ed, trac* your usage, or display any adertisements$MM Since the NSAreelations, the company has touted its priacycentric design and the +act that itsserers are located in Nor#ay as a competitie adantage$ 8Being -rmly located in Nor#ay,

the un)o6 email serice is goerned )y strict priacy regulations and is a sa+e alternatie to American emailserices as #ell as cloud)ased serices that moe data across )orders and %urisdictions, company



representaties #rote on its )log in early 2!$M DSecure, a Dinnish cloud storage company, similarly

emphasi<es the +act that 8its roots VareW in Dinland, #here priacy is a -ercely guarded alue$M -resenting

products and services as GNSA$proof+ or Gsafer+ alternatives to American$

made goods is an increasingly viable strategy for foreign companies hoping

to chip aay at U"S" tech competiveness$M

The current business climate in the technology sector -ill do

lasting damage to American economic com#etitiveness!only

meaningful government reform can change the economic

tra0ectory

ehl, -olicy Analyst at Ne America+s Bpen &echnology

%nstitute, 14

?aielle, Lein Ban*ston, 4olicy ?irectorat 0TI, o)yn reene, 4olicy 5ounsel at0TI, o)ert Corgus, esearch Associate at 0TI, "Sureillance 5ostsK The NSA's

Impact on the >conomy, Internet Dreedom H 5y)ersecurity", July 2!, Ne# America's 0pen Technology Institute 4olicy 4aper,httpsK&&###$ne#america$org&do#nloads&SureilanceY5ostsYDinal$pd+

(declining prices in oerseas mar*ets

( 8secure alternaties

0osts to Bverseas &ech Sales H The economic impact o+ NSA spying does not end

#ith the American cloud computing industry$ According to The Ne# or* Times, 8>en as

5ashington grapples ith the diplomatic and political +allout o+ Cr$ Snoden+s leaks, the

more urgent issue, companies and analysts say, is economic$M9 In the past year,

a num)er o+ American companies have reported declining sales in overseasmarkets like 0hina #here, it must )e noted, suspicion o+ the American goernment #as already high

)e+ore the NSA disclosures3, loss of customers including foreign governments, and

increased competition from non$U"S" services marketing themselves as

Gsecure+ alternatives to popular American products" There is already

signi'cant evidence linking NSA surveillance to direct harm to U"S"

economic interests $ In Noem)er 2!7, 5isco )ecame one o+ the -rst companies to pu)licly

discuss the impact o+ the NSA on its )usiness, reporting that orders +rom 5hina +ell ! percentand that its #orld#ide reenue #ould decline to ! percent in the +ourth @uarter,

in part )ecause o+ continued sales #ea*ness in 5hina$ Ne# orders in the deeloping #orld +ell!2 percent in the third @uarter, #ith the Bra<ilian mar*et dropping roughly 2M percent

o+ its 5isco sales$! Although John 5ham)ers, 5isco/s 5>0, #as hesitant to )lameall losses on the NSA, he ac*no#ledged that it #as li*ely a +actor in declining 5hinese sales2

and later admitted that he had neer seen as +ast a decline in an emerging mar*et as the drop in 5hina in late

2!7$7 These num)ers #ere also released )e+ore documents in Cay 2! reealed that the NSA/s Tailored

Access 0perations unit had intercepted net#or* gearGincluding 5isco routersG)eing shipped to targetorgani<ations in order to coertly install implant -rm#are on them )e+ore they #ere deliered$ In response,

5ham)ers #rote in a letter to the 0)ama Administration that 8i+ these allegations are true, these actions

ill undermine con'dence in our industry and in the ability of technology

companies to deliver products globally"#M Cuch li*e 0isco, Iualcomm, %),





icrosoft, and Kelett$-ackard all reported in late 7<1L that sales ere

don in 0hina as a result of the NSA revelations$ San+ord 5$ Bernsteinanalyst Toni Sacconaghi has predicted that a+ter the NSA reelations, 8UStechnology companies +ace the most reenue ris* in 5hina )y a #ide margin, +ollo#ed

)y Bra<il and other emerging mar*ets$ Industry o)serers hae also @uestioned #hether

companies li*e AppleG#hich hopes to )ring in signi-cant reenue +rom i4honesales in 5hinaG#ill +eel the impact oerseas$ >en ATHT reportedly +acedintense scrutiny regarding its proposed ac@uisition o+ Eoda+one, a >uropean #ireless carrier, a+ter

%ournalists reealed the e6tent o+ ATHT/s colla)oration #ith the NSA $9 American

companies are also losing out on business opportunities and contracts ith

large companies and foreign governments as a result of NSA spying$ According

to an article in The Ne# or* Times, 8American )usinesses are )eing le+t o1 some re@uests+or proposals +rom +oreign customers that preiously #ould hae included them$

This re+ers to erman companies, +or e6ample, that are increasingly uncom+orta)le giing their

)usiness to American -rms$ Cean#hile, the /erman government plans to change

its procurement rules to preent American companies that cooperate #ith theNSA or other intelligence organi<ations +rom )eing a#arded +ederal IT contracts$!

The goernment has already announced it intends to end its contract #ith Eeri<on,

#hich proides Internet serice to a num)er o+ goernment departments$2 8There are indications that Eeri<on is legally re@uired to proide certain things to the NSA, and that/s one o+the reasons the cooperation #ith Eeri<on #on/t continue, a spo*esman +or theerman Interior Cinistry told the Associated 4ress in June$7 The NSA disclosureshae similarly )een )lamed +or Bra<il/s ?ecem)er 2!7 decision to a#ard a [$M)illion contract to Saa) oer Boeing, an American company that had preiously)een the +rontrunner in a deal to replace Bra<il/s eet o+ -ghter %ets$ :el)er Barral, a

+ormer Bra<ilian trade secretary, suggested to Bloom)erg Ne#s that Boeing #ould hae #on the contract a year

earlier,M #hile a source in the Bra<ilian goernment told euters that 8the NSA

problem ruined it for the Americans$ As #e #ill discuss in greater depth in the ne6t section,

ermany and Bra<il are also considering data locali<ation proposals that could harm U$S$ )usiness interests andpreent American companies +rom entering into ne# mar*ets )ecause o+ high compliance costs$ 5ost to 4u)lic Trust in

American 5ompanies The pressure is increasing on American companies to respond to the reelations in order to mitigate potential )ac*lash and preent +oreign companies +rom

poaching their )usiness$ According to the Street Institute study, 8It appears the NSA/s aggressie sureillance has created an oerall +ear among U$S$ companies that there is Zguilt)y association/ +rom #hich they need to proactiely distance themseles$9 Some companies hae tried to regain trust )y pu)licly stating that they are not part o+ 4ISC or otherNSA programs, issuing disclaimers along the lines o+ those pu)lished )y Ama<on and Sales+orce in June 2!7$ 0thers that hae )een directly lin*ed to the NSA programs haepu)licly critici<ed the American goernment and called +or greater transparency in order to re)uild user con-dence and counteract potential economic harms$! To that end, ninema%or American companiesGA0=, Apple, ?rop)o6, Dace)oo*, oogle, =in*edIn, Cicroso+t, T#itter, and ahooG%oined together in the 8e+orm oernment Sureillance campaign in

January 2!, #here they launched a #e)site and #rote an open letter to goernment leaders laying out principles +or sureillance re+orm, including an end to )ul* collection and

opposition to data locali<ation re@uirements$2 Since the launch, the coalition has urged re+orm on 5apitol Fill through outreach and letters to 5ongress, supported the De)ruary2! 8The ?ay :e Dight Bac* actiist campaign, and hired a lo))yist to )olster their e1orts to cur) the NSA/s reach$7 This unli*ely, pu)lic partnership o+ some o+ Internet/s )iggest

rials spea*s to the seriousness o+ the threats to their collectie )usiness interests$ Indeed, according to an April 2! Farris poll commissioned )y a data security company, nearlyhal+ o+ the 2, respondents percent3 hae changed their online )ehaior since the NSA lea*s, paying closer attention not only to the sites they isit )ut also to #hat they say and

do on the Internet$M In particular, 2 percent indicated that they are no# doing less online shopping and )an*ing since learning the e6tent o+ goernment sureillance programs$

5learly, there are signi-cant -nancial incenties +or companies to distance themseles +rom the programs, and a s a result, they are e6pending capitalGactual and politicalGto do so$ 0ther companies hae ta*en it a step +urther, deeloping ne# products or ta*ing additional precautions to assure customers that their data is sa+e +rom the NSA$ 8Cany techcompanies +eel they hae no choice )ut to try to deelop NSA resistant products )ecause customers +rom 5hina to ermany threaten to )oycott American hard#are and cloud serices

they ie# as compromised, #rote USA Today in De)ruary 2!$ 5ompanies li*e ahoo and oogle hae deoted increased resources to hardening their systems against NSAsureillance in order to assure users that their data is ade@uately protected$ ahoo implemented automatic encryption on its email serice in January 2!, and in Carch 2!)egan encrypting all tra1ic that moed )et#een its data centers, as #ell as @ueries on its homepage and its messaging serice$ oogle/s Eice 4resident +or Security >ngineering,>ric rosse, re+erred to e1orts to protect users/ data +rom goernment sureillance as 8an arms race, #hen discussing the company/s moe last +all to encrypt all in+ormationtraelling )et#een its data centers$9 In June 2!, oogle uneiled a source code e6tension +or the 5hrome )ro#ser called 8>ndto>nd #hich is designed to ma*e email encryptioneasy, and announced a ne# section o+ its transparency report called 8Sa+er >mail #hich details the percentage o+ email that is encrypted in transit and identi-es the proiders #ho

support encryption$9 These changes are part o+ a ne# +ocus on encouraging users and companies to harden their systems against NSA sureillance, and the strategy appears to )e#or*ing$ Almost immediately, 5omcast announced its plans to #or* #ith oogle to encrypt all email tra1ic e6changed #ith mail a+ter the ca)le company #as descri)ed as one o+ the

#orst o1enders in the ne# report$9! Cean#hile, Cicroso+t has )een pu)lici<ing its policy that allo#s customers to store their data in Cicroso+t data centers in speci-c countries$92

John >$ Dran*, deputy general counsel at Cicroso+t, told The Ne# or* Times, 8:e/re hearing +rom customers, especially glo)al enterprise customers, that they care more than eera)out #here their content is stored and ho# it is used and secured$97 IBC is reportedly spending oer a )illion dollars to )uild oerseas data centers in an e1ort to reassure +oreigncustomers that their data is protected +rom U$S$ sureillance$9 In re+erence to +oreign customers as*ing a)out #hether their data is protected +rom goernment snooping, an IBCe6ecutie said, 8Cy response is protect your data against any third party G #hether it/s the NSA, other goernments, hac*ers, terrorists, #hateer, adding that it is time to 8start

tal*ing a)out encryption and E4Ns and all the #ays you can protect yoursel+$9M Dinally, +aced #ith an impossi)le choice )et#een maintaining user trust and complying #ith

goernment re@uests, a hand+ul o+ American companies that proide secure email serices hae had to shut do#n their operations altogether$ =aa)it, a secure email serice proiderthat e6perienced a !,9 percent increase in account registrations a+ter the Sno#den reelations, shuttered its )usiness a+ter it )ecame clear that user data could not )e protected

+rom goernment sureillance$ :hen the NSA could not read =ai)it/s communications directly )y )rea*ing its encryption, the agency o)tained orders compelling the company tohand oer in+ormation related to its encryption *eys, #hich #ould hae gien the NSA the a)ility to decrypt the communications o+ all , o+ =aa)it/s customers$9 Silent 5ircle,

a secure communications proider that sa# a percent reenue increase +ollo#ing the Sno#den reelations, +ollo#ed =aa)it/s lead and shut do#n its secure mail serice,

e6plaining that the decision #as made )ecause 8#e see the #riting on the #all$9 %t is abundantly clear that the NSA

surveillance programs are currently having a serious, negative impact on



the U"S" economy and threatening the future competitiveness of American

tech nology companies $ Not only are U$S$ companies losing oerseas sales andgetting dropped +rom contracts #ith +oreign companies and goernmentsGthey arealso #atching their competitie adantage in +astgro#ing industries li*e cloudcomputing and #e)hosting disappear, opening the door +or +oreign companies #ho

claim to o1er 8more secure alternatie products to poach their )usiness$ Industrye1orts to increase transparency and accounta)ility as #ell as concrete steps topromote )etter security )y adopting encryption and other )est practices are

positie signs, )ut U"S" companies cannot solve this problem alone" 8It/s not

)lo#ing oer, said Cicroso+t eneral 5ounsel Brad Smith at a recent con+erence$ 8In June o+ 2!, it is clear it is

getting #orse, not )etter$9 5ithout meaningful government reform and better

oversight, concerns about the breadth of NSA surveillance could lead to

permanent shifts in the global technology market and do lasting damage to

the U"S" economy"

Our evidence is reverse casual the cloudcom#uting industry

is necessary to save the economy!the information economy

a.ects all organi9ations and is ri#e for innovation

Coviello/ %"ecutive ice 1resident/ %;C Cor#oration/ &&

Art, Can Clo!d Comp!ting Save The American conomyQ, /arch '4 %&'', ;or+es,

www"for+es"com2sites2ciocentral2%&''2&42'42can7clo!d7comp!ting7save7the7

american7economy2

The American dream is in peril from the con!ence of s9y roc9eting de>cits , high

!nemployment , and the tic9ing time +om+ of an aging +a+y +oomer generation ,

with its coincident increase in the +!rden of entitlements as a percentage of #D@ " ;or

the >rst time, the ne<t generation of Americans, o!r grandchildren, ris9 having a lower standard of living than weenGoyed" t is not a pro+lem that can +e remedied with ta< increases and +!dget red!ctions" $e will not save

or c!t o!r way +ac9 to economic prosperity" The -ay for-ard is innovation"

America m!st innovate its way o!t of economic stagnation and +ac9 to economic

growth" As has +een the case for the last '(& years, Americans have always responded well in a crisis and yet

again, we are well positioned to lead the world o!t of this one" $ant proofQ American +!sinesses systemically and

c!lt!rally react fast" Two years after the economic downt!rn +egan the United States was generating 56 of its

economic o!tp!t with only 5& of the la+or" This sort of gain in prod!ctivity !ltimately translates into increased

economic activity, the a+ility to pay down de+t and a higher standard of living for those of !s who are employed"

Unfort!nately it does not directly address the iss!e of !nemployment" The fact is that prod!ctivity gains

from wor9ing harder can only ta9e !s so far" nnovation and technology can and

m!st ta9e !s the rest of the way, creating new Go+s and new ind!stries" Our *so

called. information economy, for e<ample, is ri#e for innovation" Today, allorgani9ations are de#endent on information tech nology$ $hat ma9es me

optimistic a+o!t the f!t!re is that we have not even +eg!n to scratch the s!rface of

all that can +e accomplished +y act!ally applying information technology

pervasively" $e have spent trillions of dollars worldwide for the comp!ters to create

and process information, networ9s to move it aro!nd and the hardware to store it"

=!t we are at a point where we spend 0& to 6& of *T. +!dgets G!st to maintain

those systems and infrastr!ct!res" No wonder progress in applying T is so slow" This is the



technology eM!ivalent of every organiation in the world, +ig or small, investing the

capital and h!man reso!rces to +!ild and operate their own electricity prod!cing

power plants" =!t instead, pict!re a world where software platforms are availa+le

online and easily c!stomia+le" @ict!re a world where comp!te power is generated

oB site, availa+le in M!antities when and where yo! need it" And pict!re a world

where information is safely stored, eVciently managed and accessi+le, when and

where yo! need it" These are clo!d infrastr!ct!res" The economies of scale,

e<i+ility and eVciency they oBer will not only save organiations massive amo!nts

of capital and maintenance costs +!t emancipate them to apply and !se

information as never +efore" An !n+elieva+le opport!nity to raise prod!ctivity while

creating !nprecedented opport!nities for +!sinesses and wor9ers" Now pict!re a health7

care system where a doctor has medical records at his >ngertips, can see <7rays with the clic9 of a mo!se, is a+le to

learn and apply the latest diagnostic and s!rgical techniM!e from anywhere in the world" Thin9 of the eVciencies in

hospital s!pply chains, the delivery of prescription dr!gs, the processing of +illing and ins!rance claims, red!ctions

in fra!d, and the application of +est practices for cost controls" The capacity for improvement is endless" As a

matter of fact, these innovations are already +eing applied in isolated poc9ets" =!t for !s to seie the

opport!nity +efore !s it:s imperative that we move from isolated centers of

e<cellence to connected systems of e<cellence" @ic9 any ind!stry and systemic improvements li9e

these are availa+le" A new age of innovation and technology advancement is within o!rgrasp P an opport!nity for Go+ creation, greater prod!ctivity and economic growth"

The time for clo!d comp!ting is now" $e need government and ind!stry to

accelerate +road scale adoption of clo!d infrastr!ct!res so we can reap the rewards

of a tr!e information +ased economy" As said at the o!tset, Americans respond well in a crisis" t is

the nat!re of o!r society- egalitarian, free, open and competitive that ma9e !s the most adaptive, inventive and

resilient co!ntry in the world" Time again for !s to lead"

Com#etitiveness is vital to hegemony and con<ict su##ressionKubbard, Bpen Society (oundations program assistant, 7<1<

Jesse, 8Fegemonic Sta)ility TheoryK An >mpirical Analysis, M2,httpK&&isr%$#ordpress$com&2!&M&2&hegemonicsta)ilitytheory&3

(regression analysis

(insta)ility )ad economy

(I+ lose economic po#ers other hegemons challenge

egression analysis o+ this data sho#s that 4earson/s ralue is $7$ In the case o+

American hegemony, economic strength is a better predictor of iolentcon*ict than even overall national po#er , #hich had an ralue o+ $!9$ The data is also #ell #ithin

the realm o+ statistical signi-cance, #ith a palue o+ $!$ :hile the data +or British hegemony #as not as stri*ing, the sameoerall pattern holds true in )oth cases$ ?uring )oth periods o+ hegemony, hegemonic strength #as negatiely related #ith iolentconict, and yet use o+ +orce )y the hegemon #as positiely correlated #ith iolent conict in )oth cases$ Dinally, in )oth cases,economic po#er #as more closely associated #ith conict leels than military po#er$ Statistical analysis created a more

complicated picture o+ the hegemon/s role in +ostering sta)ility than initially anticipated$ EI$ 5onclusions and Implications +orTheory and 4olicy To elucidate some ans#ers regarding the comple6ities my analysis unearthed, I turned -rst to the e6istingtheoretical literature on hegemonic sta)ility theory$ The e6isting literature proides some potential +rame#or*s +or understandingthese results$ Since economic strength proed to )e o+ such crucial importance, ree6amining the literature that +ocuses onhegemonic sta)ility theory/s economic implications #as the logical -rst step$ As e6plained a)oe, the literature on hegemonicsta)ility theory can )e )roadly diided into t#o camps Q that #hich +ocuses on the international economic system, and that #hich+ocuses on armed conict and insta)ility$ This research +alls s@uarely into the second camp, )ut insights +rom the -rst camp are

still o+ releance$ >en Lindle)erger/s early #or* on this @uestion is o+ releance$ Lindle)erger posited that the economic

http://isrj.wordpress.com/2010/05/28/hegemonic-stability-theory/

http://isrj.wordpress.com/2010/05/28/hegemonic-stability-theory/



insta)ility )et#een the Dirst and Second :orld :ars could )e attri)uted to the lac* o+ an economic hegemon Lindle)erger !973$ But economic insta)ility o)iously has spilloer e1ects into the

international political arena$ Leynes, #riting a+ter ::I, #arned in his seminal tract The >conomic 5onse@uences o+ the 4eace thatermany/s economic humiliation could hae a radicali<ing e1ect on the nation/s political culture Leynes !9!93$ ien latereents, his #arning seems prescient$ In the years since the Second :orld :ar, ho#eer, the >uropean continent has not relapsedinto armed conict$ :hat #as di1erent a+ter the second glo)al conagrationO 5rucially, the United States #as in a +ar morepo#er+ul position than Britain #as a+ter ::I$ As the ta)les a)oe sho#, Britain/s economic strength a+ter the Dirst :orld :ar #asa)out !7\ o+ the total in strength in the international system$ In contrast, the United States possessed a)out M7\ o+ relatie

economic po#er in the international system in the years immediately +ollo#ing ::II$ The U$S$ helped re)uild >urope/s economicstrength #ith )illions o+ dollars in inestment through the Carshall 4lan, assistance that #as neer aaila)le to the de+eatedpo#ers a+ter the Dirst :orld :ar Lindle)erger !973$ The inter#ar years #ere also mar*ed )y a series o+ de)ilitating trade #arsthat li*ely #orsened the reat ?epression I)id$3$ In contrast, #hen Britain #as more po#er+ul, it #as a)le to +acilitate greater+ree trade, and a+ter :orld :ar II, the United States played a leading role in creating institutions li*e the ATT that had anessential role in +acilitating glo)al trade 0rgans*i !9M3$ The possi)ility that economic sta)ility is an important +actor in the

oerall security enironment should not )e discounted, especially gien the results o+ my statistical analysis$ Anothertheory that could proide insight into the patterns o)sered in this research is that

o+ preponderance o+ po#er$ ilpin theori<ed that hen a state has the

preponderance of poer in the international system, rivals are more likely

to resolve their disagreements ithout resorting to armed con*ict ilpin!973$ The logic )ehind this claim is simple Q it ma*es more sense to challenge a #ea*er hegemon than a stronger one$ This

simple yet po#er+ul theory can help e6plain the pu<<lingly strong positie correlation )et#een military conicts engaged in )y thehegemon and conict oerall$ It is not necessarily that military inolement )y the hegemon instigates +urther conict in the

international system$ ather, this military inolement could )e a +unction o+ the hegemon/s #ea*er position, #hich is the true

cause o+ the higher leels o+ conict in the international system$ Additionally, it is important to note that

military poer is, in the long run, dependent on economic strength$ Thus, it is

possi)le that as hegemons lose relative economic poer, other nations are

tempted to challenge them even if their short$term military capabilities are

still strong" This #ould help e6plain some o+ the ariation +ound )et#een the economic and military data$ The results o+

this analysis are o+ clear importance )eyond the realm o+ theory$ As the de)ate rages oer the role o+ the United States in the#orld, hegemonic sta)ility theory has some use+ul insights to )ring to the ta)le$ :hat this research ma*es clear is that a stronghegemon can e6ert a positie inuence on sta)ility in the international system$ Fo#eer, this should not gie policyma*ers a

%usti-cation to engage in conict or escalate military )udgets purely +or the sa*e o+ international sta)ility$ I+ anything,this research points to the central importance o+ economic inuence in +osteringinternational sta)ility$ To misconstrue these -ndings to %usti+y anything else #ould

)e a grae error indeed$ Fegemons may play a sta)ili<ing role in the internationalsystem, )ut this role is complicated$ %t is economic strength, not military

dominance that is the true test of hegemony" A eak state ith a strong

military is a paper tiger Q it may appear +earsome, )ut it is ulnera)le to een ashort )last o+ #ind$

=reat #o-er -ar>hang et al", 0arnegie Dndoment researcher, 7<11

uhan, 8America/s declineK A har)inger o+ conict and rialry, !22,httpK&&###$eastasia+orum$org&2!!&!&22&americasdeclineahar)ingero+conictandrialry&, ldg3

(no one can challenge USA and attac* us

()and#agon so they don/t %ust attac* USA )ut USA and s@uad

(#ithout hegemony there #ill )e trade )locs and regional po#er #ars

This does not necessarily mean that the US is in systemic decline, )ut it encompasses a trend that appears to )e negatie andperhaps alarming$ Although the US still possesses incompara)le military pro#ess and its economy remains the #orld/s largest, the

once seemingly indomita)le chasm that separated America +rom anyone else is narro#ing$ Thus, the glo)al

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/






distri)ution o+ po#er is shi+ting, and the ineita)le result #ill )e a #orld that isless peace+ul, li)eral and prosperous, )urdened )y a dearth o+ e1ectie conictregulation$ 0er the past t#o decades, no other state has had the a)ility toseriously challenge the US military$ Under these circumstances, motiated )y )othopportunity and +ear, many actors hae )and#agoned #ith US hegemony and

accepted a su)ordinate role$ 5anada, most o+ :estern >urope, India, Japan, South Lorea, Australia, Singapore and

the 4hilippines hae all %oined the US, creating a status @uo that has tended to mute great po#er conicts$ Fo#eer, asthe hegemony that dre# these po#ers together #ithers , so #ill the pulling po#er)ehind the US alliance$ The result #ill )e an international order #here po#er ismore di1use, American interests and inuence can )e more readily challenged, and conicts or #ars may)e harder to aoid $ As history attests, po#er decline and redistri)ution result inmilitary con+rontation$ Dor e6ample, in the late !9th century America/s emergence as a regional po#er sa# it launch

its -rst oerseas #ar o+ con@uest to#ards Spain$ By the turn o+ the 2th century, accompanying the increase in US po#er and#aning o+ British po#er, the American Nay had )egun to challenge the notion that Britain Zrules the #aes$/ Such a notion #ouldeentually see the US attain the status o+ sole guardians o+ the :estern Femisphere/s security to )ecome the ordercreating=eiathan shaping the international system #ith democracy and rule o+ la#$ ?e-ning this UScentred system are three *eycharacteristicsK en+orcement o+ property rights, constraints on the actions o+ po#er+ul indiiduals and groups and some degree o+

e@ual opportunities +or )road segments o+ society$ As a result o+ such political sta)ility, +ree mar*ets,

li)eral trade and e6i)le -nancial mechanisms hae appeared$ And, #ith this,many countries hae sought opportunities to enter this system, proli+erating sta)leand cooperatie relations$ Fo#eer, #hat #ill happen to these adances as America/s inuence declinesO ien that

America/s authority, although sullied at times, has )ene-ted people across much o+ =atin America, 5entral and >astern >urope,the Bal*ans, as #ell as parts o+ A+rica and, @uite e6tensiely, Asia, the ans#er to this @uestion could a1ect glo)al society in a

pro+oundly detrimental #ay$ 4u)lic imagination and academia hae anticipated that a posthegemonic #orld #ould return to the pro)lems o+ the !97sK regional )locs, tradeconicts and strategic rialry$ Durthermore, multilateral institutions such as theICD, the :orld Ban* or the :T0 might gie #ay to regional organisations$ Dore6ample, >urope and >ast Asia #ould each step +or#ard to -ll the acuum le+t )y

:ashington/s #ithering leadership to pursue their o#n isions o+ regional political and economic orders$ Dree mar*ets#ould )ecome more politicised G and, #ell, less +ree G and ma%or po#ers #ould

compete +or supremacy$ Additionally, such po#er plays hae historically possesseda <erosum element$ In the late !9s and !9s, US economic po#er declined relatie to the rise o+ the Japanese and

:estern >uropean economies, #ith the US dollar also )ecoming less attractie$ And, as American po#er eroded, so did

international regimes such as the Bretton :oods System in !973$ A orld ithout American

hegemony is one here great poer ars re$emerge, the li)eral internationalsystem is supplanted )y an authoritarian one, and trade protectionism deolesinto restrictie, antiglo)alisation )arriers$ This, at least, is one possi)ility #e can +orecast in a +uture that

#ill ineita)ly )e deoid o+ unrialled US primacy$

%con decline causes nuclear -ar

Farold James 14, 4ro+essor o+ history at 4rinceton Uniersity/s :oodro# :ilson

School #ho speciali<es in >uropean economic history, &2&!, 8?e)ateK Is 2!,li*e !9!, a prelude to #orld #arO, httpK&&###$theglo)eandmail$com&glo)ede)ate&readandoteis2!li*e!9!apreludeto#orld#ar&article!972MM&

As #e get closer to the centenary o+ arilo 4rincip/s act o+ terrorism in Sara%eo, there is an eer more iid +earK

it could happen again$ The approach o+ the hundredth anniersary o+ !9! has put a

spotlight on the +ragility o+ the #orld/s political and economic security systems$ At the

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/read-and-vote-is-2014-like-1914-a-prelude-to-world-war/article19325504/






)eginning o+ 2!7, =u6em)ourg/s 4rime Cinister Jean5laude Junc*er #as #idely ridiculed +or eo*ing the shades

o+ !9!7$ By no# he is loo*ing li*e a prophet$ By 2!, as the security situation in the South 5hinaSea deteriorated, Japanese 4rime Cinister Shin<o A)e cast 5hina as the e@uialent to Laiser :ilhelm/s

ermany; and the -ghting in U*raine and in Ira@ is a sharp reminder o+ the dangers o+escalation$ =essons o+ !9! are a)out more than simply the dangers o+ national and sectarian animosities$

The main story o+ today as then is the precariousness o+ -nancial glo)ali<ation, and

the conse@uences that political leaders dra# +rom it$ In the inuential ie# o+ Norman Angell in his !9! )oo*

The reat Illusion, the interdependency o+ the increasingly comple6 glo)al economy

made #ar impossi)le$ But a @uite opposite conclusion #as possi)le and e@ually

plausi)le Q and proed to )e the case$ ien the e6tent o+ +ragility, a cleer t#ist to

the control leers might ma*e #ar easily #inna)le )y the economic hegemon$ In

the #a*e o+ an epochal -nancial crisis that almost )rought a complete glo)al

collapse, in !9, seeral countries started to thin* o+ -nance as primarily an

instrument o+ ra# po#er, one that could and should )e turned to national adantage$ The !9 panic

emanated +rom the United States )ut a1ected the rest o+ the #orld and demonstrated the +ragility o+ the #holeinternational -nancial order$ The a+termath o+ the !9 crash droe the then hegemonic po#er Q reat Britain to

reect on ho# it could use its -nancial po#er$ Bet#een !9M and !9, the British Admiralty eoled the )road

outlines o+ a plan +or -nancial and economic #ar+are that #ould #rec* the -nancial system o+ its ma%or >uropean

rial, ermany, and destroy its -ghting capacity$ Britain used its e6tensie net#or*s to gather in+ormation a)outopponents$ =ondon )an*s -nanced most o+ the #orld/s trade$ =loyds proided insurance +or the shipping not %ust

o+ Britain, )ut o+ the #orld$ Dinancial net#or*s proided the in+ormation that allo#ed the British goernment to-nd the sensitie strategic ulnera)ilities o+ the opposing alliance$ :hat pre!9! Britain did anticipated the

priatepu)lic partnership that today lin*s technology giants such as oogle, Apple or Eeri<on to U$S$ intelligence

gathering$ Since last year, the >d#ard Sno#den lea*s a)out the NSA hae shed a light on the #ay that glo)alnet#or*s are used as a source o+ intelligence and po#er$ Dor Britain/s rials, the -nancial panic o+ !9 sho#ed

the necessity o+ mo)ili<ing -nancial po#ers themseles$ The United States reali<ed that it needed a central )an*

analogous to the Ban* o+ >ngland$ American -nanciers thought that Ne# or* needed to deelop its o#n

commercial trading system that could handle )ills o+ e6change in the same #ay as the =ondon mar*et$ Some o+

the dynamics o+ the pre!9! -nancial #orld are no# reemerging$ Then an

economically declining po#er , Britain, #anted to use -nance as a #eapon against its

larger and +aster gro#ing competitors, ermany and the United States$ No# America is in turn o)sessed

)y )eing oerta*en )y 5hina Q according to some calculations, set to )ecome the #orld/s largest

economy in 2!$ In the a+termath o+ the 2 -nancial crisis, -nancial institutions

appear )oth as dangerous #eapons o+ mass destruction, )ut also as potential instruments +or

the application o+ national po#er$ In managing the 2 crisis, the dependence o+ +oreign )an*s on U$S$ dollar

+unding constituted a ma%or #ea*ness, and re@uired the proision o+ large s#ap lines )y the Dederal esere$ The

United States proided that support to some countries, )ut not others, on the )asis o+ an e6plicitly political logic,as >s#ar 4rasad demonstrates in his ne# )oo* on the 8?ollar Trap$ eopolitics is intruding into )an*ing

practice else#here$ Be+ore the U*raine crisis, ussian )an*s #ere trying to ac@uire assets in 5entral and >astern

>urope$ >uropean and U$S$ )an*s are playing a much reduced role in Asian trade -nance$ 5hinese )an*s are)eing pushed to e6pand their role in glo)al commerce$ A+ter the -nancial crisis, 5hina started to )uild up the

renmin)i as a ma%or international currency$ ussia and 5hina hae %ust proposed to create a ne# credit rating

agency to aoid #hat they regard as the political )ias o+ the e6isting American)ased3 agencies$ The ne6t stagein this logic is to thin* a)out ho# -nancial po#er can )e directed to national adantage in the case o+ a diplomatic

tussle$ Sanctions are a routine and not terri)ly success+ul3 part o+ the pressure applied to rogue states such as

Iran and North Lorea$ But -nancial pressure can )e much more po#er+ully applied to countries that are deeply

em)edded in the #orld economy$ The test is in the :estern imposition o+ sanctions a+ter the ussian anne6ationo+ 5rimea$ 4resident Eladimir 4utin/s calculation in response is that the >uropean Union and the United States

cannot possi)ly )e serious a)out the -nancial #ar$ It #ould turn into a )oomerangK ussia #ould )e less a1ected

than the more deeloped and comple6 -nancial mar*ets o+ >urope and America$ The threat o+ systemic

disruption generates a ne# sort o+ uncertainty, one that mirrors the decisie +eature

o+ the crisis o+ the summer o+ !9!$ At that time, no one could really *no# #hetherclashes #ould escalate or not$ That +eature contrasts remar*a)ly #ith almost the entirety o+ the 5old

:ar, especially since the !9s, #hen the strategic doctrine o+ C utually A ssured ? estruction



le+t no dou)t that any superpo#er conict #ould ineita)ly escalate $ The idea o+

net#or* disruption relies on the a)ility to achiee adantage )y surprise, and to #in at no or lo# cost$ But it isineita)ly a gam)le, and raises prospect that others might, )ut also might not )e a)le to, mount the same sort o+

operation$ Just as in !9!, there is an enhanced temptation to roll the dice, een though

the game may )e +atal$

1rioriti9e sto##ing <ash#oints of -ar over structural violence –stats #rove this is a better a##roach to sto# in0ustice

osh!a =oldstein, nt:l Rel @rof W American U, 4>>&, $ar and #ender, p" 3'%

;irst, peace activists face a dilemma in thin9ing a+o!t ca!ses of war and wor9ing for

peace" /any peace scholars and activists s!pport the approach, *if yo! want peace,

wor9 for G!stice". Then, if one +elieves that se<ism contri+!tes to war one can wor9

for gender G!stice speci>cally )perhaps among others8 in order to p!rs!e peace" This

approach +rings strategic allies to the peace movement )women, la+or, minorities8,

+!t rests on the ass!mption that inG!stices ca!se war" The evidence in this +oo9

s!ggests that ca!sality r!ns at least as strongly the other way " ?ar is not a

#roduct of ca#italism/ im#erialism/ gender/ innate aggression/ or any othersingle cause/ altho!gh all of these in!ence wars: o!t+rea9s and o!tcomes"

Rather, war has in part f!eled and s!stained these and other inG!stices "5 So,.if yo!

want peace, wor9 for peace". ndeed, if yo! want G!stice )gender and others8, wor9

for peace " Ca!sality does not r!n G!st !pward thro!gh the levels of analysis, from

types of individ!als, societies, and governments !p to war" t r!ns downward too"

nloe s!ggests that changes in attit!des towards war and the military may +e the

most important way to *reverse women:s oppression". The dilemma is that peace

wor9 foc!sed on G!stice +rings to the peace movement energy, allies, and moral

gro!nding, yet, in light of this +oo9:s evidence, the emphasis on inG!stice as the

main ca!se of war seems to +e empirically inadeM!ate "

8ecline causes every scenario for e"tinction)r2e2inski, John Kopkins American (oreign -olicy professor, 7<17

X)ignie#, Strategic EisionK America and the 5risis o+ lo)al 4o#er, google )oo*s,ldg3

A n American decline #ould impact the nuclear domain most pro+oundly )y inciting a crisis

of con'dence in the credi)ility o+ the American nuclear um)rella$ 5ountries li*e South Lorea, Tai#an, Japan, Tur*ey, and

een Israel, among others, rely on the United States/ e6tended nuclear deterrence +or security$ I+ they #ere to seethe United States slo#ly retreat +rom certain regions, +orced )y circumstances to pull

)ac* its guarantees, or een i+ they #ere to lose con-dence in standing USguarantees, )ecause o+ the -nancial, political, military, and diplomatic conse@uences o+ an American decline, then they#ill hae to see* security else#here$ That 8else#here security could originate +rom only t#o sourcesK +rom nuclear#eapons o+ one/s o#n or +rom the e6tended deterrence o+ another po#erGmost li*ely ussia, 5hina, or India$ It is possi)le

that countries that +eel threatened )y the am)ition o+ e6isting nuclear #eapon states, the addition o+ ne# nuclear #eapon states,

or the decline in the relia)ility o+ American po#er #ould deelop their o#n nuclear capa)ilities$ Dor cryptonuclear po#ers li*eermany and Japan, the path to nuclear #eapons #ould )e easy and +airly @uic*, gien their e6tensie ciilian nuclear industry,their -nancial success, and their technological acumen$ Durthermore, the continued e6istence o+ nuclear #eapons in North Loreaand the potentiality o+ a nuclearcapa)le Iran could prompt American allies in the 4ersian ul+ or >ast Asia to )uild their o#nnuclear deterrents$ ien North Lorea/s increasingly aggressie and erratic )ehaior, the +ailure o+ the si6party tal*s, and the



#idely held distrust o+ Iran/s megalomaniacal leadership, the guarantees o1ered )y a declining America/s nuclear um)rella might

not stae o1 a regional nuclear arms race among smaller po#ers$ =ast )ut not least, een though 5hina and India today

maintain a responsi)le nuclear posture o+ minimal deterrence and 8no -rst use, the uncertainty o+ an increasingly nuclear

#orld could +orce )oth states to reealuate and escalate their nuclear posture $ Indeed, they as #ell as

ussia might een )ecome inclined to e6tend nuclear assurances to their respectie client states$ Not only could this signal a

rene#ed regional nuclear arms race )et#een these three aspiring po#ers )ut it could also create ne# and

antagonistic spheres of in*uence in >urasia drien )y competitie nuclear deterrence$ The decline o+ the

United States #ould thus precipitate drastic changes to the nuclear domain$ An increase in proli+eration among

insecure American allies and&or an arms race )et#een the emerging Asian po#ers are among the more li*elyoutcomes$ This ripple e1ect o+ proli+eration #ould undermine the transparent management o+ the nuclear

domain and increase the li*elihood o+ interstate rivalry, miscalculation, and eentually

een perhaps o+ international nuclear terror$ In addition to the +oregoing, in the course o+ this century the #orld #ill

+ace a series o+ noel geopolitical challenges )rought a)out )y signi-cant changes in the physical enironment$ The managemento+ those changing enironmental commonsGthe gro#ing scarcity o+ +resh #ater, the opening o+ the Arctic, and glo)al #armingG

#ill re@uire glo)al consensus and mutual sacri-ce$ American leadership alone is not enough to secure cooperation on all these

issues, )ut a decline in American inuence #ould reduce the li*elihood o+ achieingcooperatie agreements on enironmental and resource management $ America/sretirement +rom its role o+ glo)al policeman could create greater opportunities +or

emerging po#ers to +urther e6ploit the enironment al commons +or their o#neconomic gain, increasing the chances of resource $driven con*ict, particularly in

Asia$ The latter is li*ely to )e the case especially in regard to the increasingly scarce #ater resources in many countries$

According to the United States Agency +or International ?eelopment USAI?3, )y 22M more than 2$ )illion people #ill )e liingin either #aterscarce or #aterstressed regions, as glo)al demand +or #ater #ill dou)le eery t#enty years$9 :hile much o+ theSouthern Femisphere is threatened )y potential #ater scarcity, interstate conictsGthe geopolitical conse@uences o+ cross)order#ater scarcityGare most li*ely to occur in 5entral and South Asia, the Ciddle >ast, and northeastern A+rica, regions #here limited

#ater resources are shared across )orders and political sta)ility is transient$ The com)ination o+ political insecurity and resource

scarcity is a menacing geopolitical com)ination$ The threat o+ #ater conicts is li*ely to intensi+y as the economic gro#th andincreasing demand +or #ater in emerging po#ers li*e Tur*ey and India collides #ith insta)ility and resource scarcity in rialcountries li*e Ira@ and 4a*istan$ :ater scarcity #ill also test 5hina/s internal sta)ility as its )urgeoning population and gro#ing

industrial comple6 com)ine to increase demand +or and decrease supply o+ usa)le #ater$ In South Asia, the neerending political tension )et#een India and 4a*istan com)ined #ith oercro#ding and 4a*istan/s

heightening internal crises may put the Indus :ater Treaty at ris*, especially )ecause the rier )asin originates in the long

disputed territory o+ Jammu and Lashmir, an area o+ eerincreasing political and military olatility$ The lingering dispute

)et#een India and 5hina oer the status o+ Northeast India, an area through #hich the ital Brahmaputra ier

o#s, also remains a serious concern$ As American hege mony disappears and regional

competition intensi'es , disputes oer natural resources li*e #ater hae the potential to

deelop into full$scale con*icts " The slo# tha#ing o+ the Arctic #ill also change the +ace o+ the international

competition +or important resources$ :ith the Arctic )ecoming increasingly accessi)le to human endeaor, the -e Arctic littoralstatesGthe United States, 5anada, ussia, ?enmar*, and Nor#ayGmay rush to lay claim to its )ounty o+ oil, gas, and metals$ Thisrun on the Arctic has the potential to cause seere shi+ts in the geopolitical landscape, particularly to ussia/s adantage$ As

Eladimir adyuhin points out in his article entitled 8The Arctic/s Strategic Ealue +or ussia, ussia has the most to gain +romaccess to the Arctic #hile simultaneously )eing the target o+ +ar north containment )y the other +our Arctic states, all o+ #hich aremem)ers o+ NAT0$ In many respects this ne# great game #ill )e determined )y #ho moes -rst #ith the most legitimacy, since

ery +e# agreements on the Arctic e6ist$ The -rst ussian supertan*er sailed +rom >urope to Asia ia the North Sea in the summero+ 2!$! ussia has an immense amount o+ land and resource potential in the Arctic$ Its territory #ithin the Arctic 5ircle is 7$!

million s@uare *ilometersGaround the si<e o+ IndiaGand the Arctic accounts +or 9!\ o+ ussia/s natural gas production, \ o+ itse6plored natural gas reseres, 9\ o+ its o1shore hydrocar)on reseres, and a large store o+ metals$!! ussia is also attemptingto increase its claim on the territory )y asserting that its continental shel+ continues deeper into the Arctic, #hich could @uali+y

ussia +or a !Mmile e6tension o+ its >6clusie >conomic Xone and add another !$2 million s@uare *ilometers o+ resourcerichterritory$ Its -rst attempt at this e6tension #as denied )y the UN 5ommission on the 5ontinental Shel+, )ut it is planning toreapply in 2!7$ ussia considers the Arctic a true e6tension o+ its northern )order and in a 2 strategy paper 4residentCedede stated that the Arctic #ould )ecome ussia/s 8main strategic resource )ase )y 22$!2 ?espite recent conciliatorysummits )et#een >urope and ussia oer >uropean security architecture, a large amount o+ uncertainty and distrust stains the:est/s relationship #ith ussia$ The United States itsel+ has al#ays maintained a strong claim on the Arctic and has continued

patrolling the area since the end o+ the 5old :ar$ This #as rein+orced during the last month o+ 4resident Bush/s second term #henhe released a national security directie stipulating that America should 8presere the glo)al mo)ility o+ the United States militaryand ciilian essels and aircra+t throughout the Arctic region$ The potentiality o+ an American decline could em)olden ussia tomore +orce+ully assert its control o+ the Arctic and oer >urope ia energy politics; though much depends on ussia/s politicalorientation a+ter the 2!2 presidential elections$ All -e Arctic littoral states #ill )ene-t +rom a peace+ul and cooperatieagreement on the ArcticGsimilar to Nor#ay/s and ussia/s 2! agreement oer the Barents StraitGand the geopolitical sta)ilityit #ould proide$ Neertheless, political circumstances could rapidly change in an enironment #here control oer energy remains



ussia/s single greatest priority$ lo)al climate change is the -nal component o+ the enironmental commons and the

one #ith the greatest potential geopolitical impact$ Scientists and policy ma*ers ali*e hae pro%ectedcatastrophic conse@uences +or man*ind and the planet i+ the #orld aerage temperature rises )y more

than t#o degrees oer the ne6t century$ 4lant and animal species could gro e;tinct at a rapid pace, large

scale ecosystems could collapse, human migration could increase to untena)le leels, and

glo)al

economic development could becategorically

reversed$

5hangesin geography, +orced

migration, and glo)al economic contraction layered on top o+ the perennial regional security challenges could create a

geopolitical reality o+ unmanageable comple6ity and con*ict, especially in the densely populated and politically

unsta)le areas o+ Asia such as the Northeast and South$ Durthermore, any legitimate action inhi)iting glo)al climate change #illre@uire unprecedented leels o+ sel+sacri-ce and international cooperation$ The United States does consider climate change aserious concern, )ut its lac* o+ )oth longterm strategy and political commitment, eidenced in its re+usal to rati+y the Lyoto

4rotocol o+ !99 and the repeated de+eat o+ climatechange legislation in 5ongress, deters other countries +rom participating in aglo)al agreement$ The United States is the secondlargest glo)al emitter o+ car)on dio6ide, a+ter 5hina, #ith 2\ o+ the #orld/sshare$ The United States is the num)er one per capita emitter o+ car)on dio6ide and the glo)al leader in per capita energy

demand$ There+ore, US leadership is essential in not only getting other countries tocooperate , )ut also in actually inhi)iting climate change$ 0thers around the #orld, including the >uropean Union and Bra<il,

hae attempted their o#n domestic re+orms on car)on emissions and energy use, and committed themseles to pursuingrene#a)le energy$ >en 5hina has made reducing emissions a goal, a +act it re+uses to let the United States ignore$ But none o+those nations currently has the a)ility to lead a glo)al initiatie$ 4resident 0)ama committed the United States to energy andcar)on re+orm at the 5openhagen Summit in 29, )ut the increasingly polari<ed domestic political enironment and the truculent

American economic recoery are unli*ely to inspire progress on costly energy issues$ 5hina is also critically important to anydiscussion o+ the management o+ climate change as it produces 2!\ o+ the #orld/s total car)on emissions, a percentage that #illonly increase as 5hina deelops the #estern regions o+ its territory and as its citi<ens e6perience a gro#th in their standard o+liing$ 5hina, ho#eer, has re+used to ta*e on a leadership role in climate change, as it has also done in the maritime, space, andcy)erspace domains$ 5hina uses its designation as a deeloping country to shield itsel+ +rom the demands o+ glo)al ste#ardship$5hina/s tough stance at the 29 5openhagen Summit underscores the potential dangers o+ an American declineK no other countryhas the capacity and the desire to accept glo)al ste#ardship oer the enironmental commons$ 0nly a igorous Unites Statescould lead on climate change, gien ussia/s dependence on car)on)ased energies +or economic gro#th, India/s relatiely lo#

emissions rate, and 5hina/s current reluctance to assume glo)al responsi)ility$ The protection and good +aith

management o+ the glo)al commons G sea, space, cyberspace, nuclear

prolif eration, ater security, the Arctic, and the environment itsel+Gare

imperative to the longterm gro#th o+ the glo)al economy and the continuation

of )asic geopolitical stability $ But in almost eery case, the potential a)sence o+constructie and inuential US leadership #ould +atally undermine the essential

communality o+ the glo)al commons $ The argument that America/s decline #ould generate glo)alinsecurity, endanger some ulnera)le states, produce a more trou)led North American neigh)orhood, and ma*e cooperatiemanagement o+ the glo)al commons more di1icult is not an argument +or US glo)al supremacy$ In +act, the strategic comple6itieso+ the #orld in the t#enty-rst centuryGresulting +rom the rise o+ a politically sel+assertie glo)al population and +rom thedispersal o+ glo)al po#erGma*e such supremacy unattaina)le$ But in this increasingly complicated geopolitical enironment, an

America in pursuit o+ a ne#, timely strategic ision is crucial to helping the #orld aoid a dangerous slide into internationalturmoil$

Documents

Alpharetta Vemuri Madhavan Aff Wake Forest Round6