Ambit Coalindia

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may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should not consider this report as the only factor in making their investment decision.

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

AMBIT INSIGHTS3 September 2 14

DAILY

G&C 8.0-Quality at a reasonable price

Company name Weight

(%) RatingFY15

P/E (x)

Bajaj Auto 4.5 BUY 17.3

Tata Motors 4.5 BUY 8.9

Bank of Baroda 4.5 BUY 7.2

ICICI Bank 4.5 BUY 17.2

I D F C 4.5 UR 11.7

Grasim Inds 4.5 NR 15.2

HCL Technologies 4.5 BUY 15.8

TCS 4.5 BUY 22.5

Coal India 4.5 BUY 12.9

NMDC 4.5 NR 9.7Oil India 4.5 BUY 8.3

O N G C 4.5 BUY 11.3

Bharti Airtel 4.5 NR 29.1

Power Grid Corpn 4.5 BUY 12.8

McLeod Russel 2.3 NR 11.5

ING Vysya Bank 2.3 BUY 15.0

DCB Bank 2.3 NR 11.9

Castrol India 2.3 NR 35.6

TTK Prestige 2.3 BUY 38.5

Marico 2.3 BUY 29.6

Bharat Electron 2.3 BUY 16.2

Sadbhav Engg. 2.3 BUY 42.6

eClerx Services 2.3 NR 15.2

D B Corp 2.3 NR 17.5

Petronet LNG 2.3 SELL 19.8

Cadila Health. 2.3 NR 24.1

Oberoi Realty 2.3 BUY 16.1

Sobha Developer. 2.3 BUY 14.9

Vardhman Textile 2.3 NR 5.9

Torrent Power 2.3 BUY 13.8

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research

NR = Not Rated

UR = Under Review

Thematic

Utilities

Its getting a little better

(Click here for detailed note)

Update

Coal India (BUY)

5MFY15 Volume growth revives to 5.1%

Analyst Notes: Economy: Will the Planning Commission really be reinvented?Saurabh Mukherjea, CFA, +91 99877 85848

On 15th August, the PM scrapped the Planning Commission and promised the nationthat something better would replace it. Since then India’s top policymakers,economists and civil servants have been brainstorming in Delhi about what the newPlanning Commission will look like. Beyond the fact that almost all the key peopleinvolved in the brainstorming are veterans of the world created by the old PlanningCommission, there are other reasons for believing the new construct will not be toodifferent from old one. In fact, the “think tank” part of the new Plan Comm willcontinue to report into the PMO and, unless India imports experts from abroad, willcontinue to be staffed by the same sort of policy gurus who were in the old PlanComm. The only aspect of the Plan Comm that looks likely to change is the fiscalsupervisory/regulatory aspects. Our sources suggest that these functions of the PlanComm are likely to move to the Finance Ministry which will then become “judge, juryand executioner” of all matters to do with fiscal policy. We expect the states to then

pushback on this construct and the negotiations that would then follow between thePMO and the states will tell us a lot about just how “federal” India will be under theNDA regime.

Source: Ambit Capital research

http://webambit.ambit.co/reports/Ambit_Utilities_Thematic_03Sept2014.pdf

http://webambit.ambit.co/reports/Ambit_Utilities_Thematic_03Sept2014.pdf



Ambit Capital and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Ambit Capitalmay have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should not consider this report as the only factor in making their investment decision.

ts getting a little better

Amongst several issues faced by the Indian power generation sector, atleast coal production seems to be improving; our mining analyst expectsCoal India’s production CAGR to improve to 5% over FY14-17 vs 1.6%over FY10-14. India’s real challenge is not shortage of capacities butshortage of domestic coal. Despite an installed capacity of 243GW, only130GW was generated in FY14 (peak demand of 136GW). We mapIndian power generating utilities on a competitive matrix based on PPAsigned and coal linkages; Tata Power (TPWR), NTPC and NHPC stand outthe best. We prefer TPWR instead of NTPC and NHPC due to adverseCERC regulation and execution challenges for the latter two. TorrentPower, despite being worst placed given stranded assets, is attractive,as stock prices trades below value of its operating assets.

Visibility on improved domestic coal production - A key catalystAmongst the many issues facing the power sector, at least coal productionappears to be improving; Coal India’s 1QFY15 production increased 5% YoY vs1.6% CAGR over FY10-14. India’s challenge is not shortage of power capacitybut shortage of domestic coal. Despite installed capacity of 243GW, only130GW out of the peak demand of 136GW in FY14 could be met, as averagePLF was dismal at 66%. Our Metals analyst expects Coal India’s productionCAGR to improve to 5% over FY14-17 and 8% over FY18-24 due to constructionof key railway lines in Jharkhand, Odisha and Chhattisgarh.

Competitive mapping of players and filters of quality

In our competitive matrix, TPWR, NTPC and NHPC are best placed. We preferTPWR over NTPC and NHPC (due to adverse CERC regulation and execution

challenges). JP Power and Indiabulls Power appear cheap on P/B but facechallenges on equipment quality and poor execution respectively. TorrentPower, despite being exposed to shortage of domestic gas, is attractive, given` 182/share valuation for the operational assets. JSWE emerges as a ‘shortcandidate,’ due to its stretched valuation and negligible pipeline.

SELL JSWE which is the most exposed on our matrix; BUY TPWR

We recommend a switch from JSWE to TPWR. This is because JSWE is currentlytrading close to our bull-case price of ` 84/share which assumes acquisition of2GW capacity; moreover, JSWE remains exposed to lower merchant tariff andhigher imported coal prices. TWPR, on the other hand, has 90% of projects withfuel linkage and secured offtake. Alongside this, its net debt:equity may reduceto 1.0x by FY16 (vs 3.1x in FY14) if it is able to sell its stake in Arutmin and KPC.This can provide enough ammunition to fund the next leg of growth as clarity onfuel pass-through emerges on case 2 bids.

UtilitiesPOSITIVE

THEMATIC September 03, 2014

Key Recommendations

Tata Power BUY

Target Price: 111 Upside : 23%

Torrent Power BUY

Target Price: 225 Upside : 62%

JSW Energy SELL

Target Price: 66 Downside : 14%

NTPC SELL

Target Price: 111 Downside : 21%

Analysts Details

Bhargav [email protected]

+91 22 3043 3252Deepesh [email protected]+91 22 3043 3275

How to play the sector

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research, Note: Size of bubble represents the quality of management ina scale from 1 to 4 with higher the better; valuation as on 2 September 2014; risk-based score is

calculated based on fuel and offtake agreements (higher the better)

NTPC

NHPC

Tata Power

JP Power

Adani Power

Reliance Power

CESC

Indiabulls

Torrent Power

JSW Energy

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

2.0 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.1

Risk Based Scores

F Y 1 6 P

/ B v ( x )

Attractive andundervalued

Attractive andfairly valued

SHORTcandidate

Multibagger; waiting for theright catalysts



AMBIT INSIGHTS

Ambit Capital Pvt Ltd 3 September 2014

Coal India5MFY15 Volume growth revives to 5.1%

For 5MFY15, Coal India (CIL) has reported a production growth of 5.1% YoY, inine with our view that CIL’s production growth is likely to increase to 5%

CAGR over FY14-17 (from 1.6% over FY10-14). Based on our expectations ofpartial completion of the three key railway lines over the next 3-4 years, webelieve CIL’s production growth is likely to further increase to 8% CAGR overFY18-24. We reiterate our BUY stance on the stock, as: (a) we expectproduction growth over the next ten years (FY14-24) to be higher than CIL’shistorical CAGR of 5% and (b) the progress towards gradual deregulation ofenergy prices in India (be it fuel, gas, etc.) makes us believe that there isimited downside risk of the Government curbing CIL’s pricing power to passon the cost escalation. Better visibility on timelines for railway lines and pricehikes are likely to be the key catalysts.

Event: Coal India has reported a production of 34.5mt for August 2014 (up 9% YoY).Given August is a monsoon month, the 9% YoY production growth was partially driven

by revival in production in August-14 as well as a base effect in August-13 volumes.Production growth for 5MFY15 is at 5.1% and CIL’s key subsidiaries, MCL and NCLhave reported a growth of 16.5% and 5.1% respectively. For 5MFY15, althoughofftake growth was at 3.4% (lower than production growth of 5.1%), the quantum ofofftake at 194.9mt was higher than the production of 175.9mt, indicating thatevacuation infrastructure is not a constraint at the current level of production.

Subsidiary-wise production (mt)

Subsidiary 5MFY15 5MFY14 YoY growth (%) Aug-14 Aug-13 YoY growth (%)

ECL 13.2 13.1 0.5% 2.5 2.5 0.0%

BCCL 13.6 12.9 5.4% 2.5 2.4 4.6%

CCL 17.7 17.1 3.6% 4.6 3.5 33.2%

NCL 24.8 23.6 5.1% 4.4 4.9 -11.7%

WCL 15.4 13.9 11.0% 2.4 1.8 35.2%

SECL 45.3 47.3 -4.4% 8.7 8.8 -1.7%

MCL 45.8 39.3 16.5% 9.5 7.8 22.3%

CIL total 175.9 167.3 5.1% 34.5 31.7 9.0%

Source: Company, Ambit Capital research

Our view: CIL’s 5MFY15 reported production growth of 5.1% is in line with our viewthat CIL’s production CAGR is likely to revive to 5% over FY14-17. We retain our FY15production estimate of 489mt (vs CIL’s target of 507mt) and FY17 estimate of 534mtvs CIL’s ‘business as usual’ target of 555mt). Please refer to Exhibit 23 on page 14

(click here) of our initiation report for mine-wise details for key subsidiaries which are

ikely to contribute to production growth over the next three years. Based on ournteractions with multiple experts in railway and coal industry, we expect highervolumes from a partial completion of the first railway line in FY18, followed by FY19and then in FY20. Thus, we expect CIL’s production CAGR to increase to 8% overFY18-24 due to the gradual progress in the three railway lines. Please refer to Exhibit5 on page 4 of our note dated 11 June for an update on each of the railway lines.

We reiterate our BUY stance on the stock with a TP of Rs464, 27% upside. Bettervisibility on partial completion of the three key railway lines is likely in the next3-4 years; key milestones - completion of land acquisition for the Jharkhand line andOdisha lines and grant of stage I clearance for the Chhattisgarh railway line.

BUY

Quick Insight

AnalysisMeeting Note

News Impact

Coal India BUY

Bloomberg Code: COAL IN

Target Price ( ` ): 464

CMP ( ` ): 364

Mcap ( ` bn/US$ bn): 2,300/38

3M ADV ( ` mn/US$ mn): 1,757/29

Analysts

Parita [email protected] Tel: +91 22 3043 3223

Dayanand Mittal, CFA,

[email protected]: +91 22 3043 3202

http://webambit.ambit.co/reports/Ambit_CoalIndia_Initiation_02Apr2014.pdf


http://webambit.ambit.co/reports/Ambit_CoalIndia_CompanyInsight_11Jun2014.pdf








AMBIT INSIGHTS


Balance sheet (consolidated)

Year to March (Rs mn) FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Net Worth 424,045 538,936 671,280 823,989

Total Debt 3,990 3,990 3,990 3,990

Total Liabilities & Provisions 372,316 407,810 446,145 487,546

Total Liabilities 800,350 950,736 1,121,414 1,315,525

Total Fixed Assets 191,002 196,357 201,759 207,212

nvestments 37,749 37,749 37,749 37,749

Net current Assets (excl. cash) 10,423 -19,226 -64,264 -99,699

Cash & Bank Balances 523,895 698,576 908,890 1,132,982

Total Assets 800,350 950,736 1,121,414 1,315,525


ncome statement (consolidated)

Year to March (Rs bn) FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Sales 688,100 754,200 818,538 922,955

EBITDA 159,632 196,931 213,871 233,756

Total D&A 19,964 20,895 22,160 23,488

EBIT 139,668 176,036 191,711 210,269

Other Income 89,694 90,090 114,738 143,233

PBT 228,782 265,448 305,771 352,824

Taxes 77,679 87,598 100,904 116,432

PAT 151,117 177,850 204,867 236,392


Cash flow statement (consolidated)

Year to March (Rs bn) FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

PBT 228,782 265,448 305,771 352,824

D&A 19,964 20,895 22,160 23,488

Others (44,689) (53,918) (75,725) (101,154)

CFO per WC changes 204,057 232,426 252,205 275,158

Changes in WC (37,952) 29,649 45,038 35,435

Taxes paid (77,679) (87,598) (100,904) (116,432)

Net CFO 88,425 174,477 196,339 194,161

Capex (41,349) (26,250) (27,563) (28,941)

nterest and others 75,894 90,090 114,738 143,233

CFI 34,545 63,840 87,175 114,293

Dividends (216,146) (62,959) (72,523) (83,683)

CFF (221,435) (63,637) (73,201) (84,361) Net change in C&CE (98,465) 174,681 210,314 224,093


Ratio analysis / Valuation parameters (consolidated)

Year to March FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

EBITDA margin (post OBR & provisions) % 23.2% 26.1% 26.1% 25.3%

Net profit margin (%) 22.0% 23.6% 25.0% 25.6%

RoE (%) 33.3% 36.9% 33.9% 31.6%

P/E (x) 15.2 12.9 11.2 9.7

P/B (x) 5.4 4.3 3.4 2.8

Dividend yield 8.0% 2.3% 2.7% 3.1%

EV/ EBITDA (x) 13.5 10.9 10.1 9.2




AMBIT INSIGHTS


Institutional Equities Team

Saurabh Mukherjea, CFA CEO, Institutional Equities (022) 30433174 [email protected]

Research

Analysts Industry Sectors Desk-Phone E-mail

Nitin Bhasin - Head of Research E&C / Infra / Cement / Industrials (022) 30433241 [email protected] Aadesh Mehta Banking / Financial Services (022) 30433239 [email protected]

Achint Bhagat Cement / Infrastructure (022) 30433178 [email protected]

Aditya Khemka Healthcare (022) 30433272 [email protected]

Ashvin Shetty, CFA Automobile (022) 30433285 [email protected]

Bhargav Buddhadev Power Utilities / Capital Goods (022) 30433252 [email protected]

Dayanand Mittal, CFA Oil & Gas / Metals & Mining (022) 30433202 [email protected]

Deepesh Agarwal Power Utilities / Capital Goods (022) 30433275 [email protected]

Gaurav Mehta, CFA Strategy / Derivatives Research (022) 30433255 [email protected]

Karan Khanna Strategy (022) 30433251 [email protected]

Krishnan ASV Real Estate (022) 30433205 [email protected]

Pankaj Agarwal, CFA Banking / Financial Services (022) 30433206 [email protected]

Paresh Dave Healthcare (022) 30433212 [email protected]

Parita Ashar Metals & Mining / Oil & Gas (022) 30433223 [email protected]

Rakshit Ranjan, CFA Consumer / Retail (022) 30433201 [email protected]

Ravi Singh Banking / Financial Services (022) 30433181 [email protected]

Ritesh Gupta, CFA Midcaps – Chemical / Retail (022) 30433242 [email protected]

Ritesh Vaidya Consumer (022) 30433246 [email protected]

Ritika Mankar Mukherjee, CFA Economy / Strategy (022) 30433175 [email protected]

Ritu Modi Automobile (022) 30433292 [email protected]

Sagar Rastogi Technology (022) 30433291 [email protected]

Sumit Shekhar Economy / Strategy (022) 30433229 [email protected]

Tanuj Mukhija, CFA E&C / Infra / Industrials (022) 30433203 [email protected]

Utsav Mehta Technology (022) 30433209 [email protected]

Sales

Name Regions Desk-Phone E-mail

Sarojini Ramachandran - Head of Sales UK +44 (0) 20 7614 8374 [email protected]

Deepak Sawhney India / Asia (022) 30433295 [email protected]

Dharmen Shah India / Asia (022) 30433289 [email protected]

Dipti Mehta India / USA (022) 30433053 [email protected]

Hitakshi Mehra India (022) 30433204 [email protected]

Nityam Shah, CFA USA / Europe (022) 30433259 [email protected] Purohit, CFA UK / USA (022) 30433169 [email protected]

Praveena Pattabiraman India / Asia (022) 30433268 [email protected]

Production

Sajid Merchant Production (022) 30433247 [email protected]

Sharoz G Hussain Production (022) 30433183 [email protected]

Joel Pereira Editor (022) 30433284 [email protected]

Nikhil Pillai Database (022) 30433265 [email protected]

E&C = Engineering & Construction



AMBIT INSIGHTS


Explanation of Investment Rating

nvestment Rating Expected return(over 12-month period from date of initial rating)

Buy >5%

Sell <5%

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Ambit Coalindia