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Asia
Lesinforma,onsetanalysesdiffuséesparLeCercled'Inves,ssementdel'IESEGnecons,tuentqu'uneaideàladécisionpourlesinves,sseurs.LaresponsabilitéduCercled'Inves,ssementdel'IESEGnepeutêtreretenuedirectementouindirectementsuite à l'u,lisa,on des informa,ons et analyses par les lecteurs. Il est recommandé à toute personne non aver,e deconsulter un conseiller professionnel avant tout inves,ssement. Ces informa,ons indica,ves ne cons,tuent en aucunemanièreuneincita,onàunequelconqueopéra,onboursière.
Mainindicators
GDPGrowthrate:0.7%Unemploymentrate: 3.7%Infla5onrate: 1.3%Interestrate: 1.25%Balanceoftrade: 7187USDMillionGovernmentDebttoGDP: 35.12%
%ofchangeKRW/USD: 0.309%%ofchangeCNY/KRW: -0.308%Interbankrate: 1.48%CPI 111Index-Points
hHp://contact02658.wix.com/cercleinves5ssement
Analyst–AmélieCLEMENT-LAMIRAULT
SouthKoreaAnalysis
11/23/16
Cercled’invesJssementdel’IESEGSchoolofManagement
Macroecon
omic
Analyst
News:
PoliJc :OnemillionofKoreanci5zenmarchedon the12thofNovember inorder toask the resigna5onof theParkGeun-Hye,PresidenteofSouthKorea.TheSouthKoreanPresidenteisheldresponsibleofcorrup5on.Choi-Soon-Sil,aclosest friend of the Presidente, would have used her rela5onship with Park Geun-Hye to embezzle money fromChaebols.Onthe19thofNovember,therewasanotherprotestmarchwithhalfamillionpeopleinSeoul.EducaJon : On the 17th of November, the South Koreanworldwoke up later. In fact, college student passed theirexamstoenterintheUniversity.TheseexamsledtoopenprivatefirmsandeventheSouthKoreanstockexchangeat10o’clock.Eachyear,theseexamsrevivethedebateabouttheeffec5venessofthesesmeasures.Althoughstudentsgetthebestmarksintheinterna5onalrankings,thelevelofdepressionandsuicideisalsoveryhigh.
USelecJon :Duringhiselec5oncampaignTrumpdeclaredunfair thefreemovementofgoodsbetweenSouthKoreaandUnitedStatesofAmerica.Furthermore,SouthKoreaisafraidtoopenislegalservicetoamericanlawoffice.AllthisdecisionsaregoingtobenegociatedbetweenDonaldTrumpandParkGeun-Hye.
Graph1:GDPinUSdollar
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
23/11/2015 23/04/2016 23/09/2016
KRW/EUR KRW/USD
Graph2:Currencies
Announcementofthelast2weeks
Last Forecast PreviousNovember8th2016Unemploymentrate 3.7% 3.8% 4%November11th2016InterestRateDecision 1.25% 1.25% 1.25%November13th2016ExportPricesYoY -1.6% -7.6% -8.3%ImportPricesYoY -0.6% -6.5% -7.7%November17th2016PPIYoY -0.2% -0.1% -1.1%PPIMoM 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Source:TradingEconomics
Source:BloombergSource:Bloomberg
Source:TradingEconomics
98%
99%
100%
101%
102%
103%
01/01/2016 01/04/2016 01/07/2016
GDPSouthKorea GDPUSA
Source:LeMonde
Lesinforma,onsetanalysesdiffuséesparLeCercled'Inves,ssementdel'IESEGnecons,tuentqu'uneaideàladécisionpourlesinves,sseurs.LaresponsabilitéduCercled'Inves,ssementdel'IESEGnepeutêtreretenuedirectementouindirectementsuite à l'u,lisa,on des informa,ons et analyses par les lecteurs. Il est recommandé à toute personne non aver,e deconsulter un conseiller professionnel avant tout inves,ssement. Ces informa,ons indica,ves ne cons,tuent en aucunemanièreuneincita,onàunequelconqueopéra,onboursière. Cercled’invesJssementdel’IESEGSchoolofManagement
Asia
hHp://contact02658.wix.com/cercleinves5ssement
Analyst–AmélieCLEMENT-LAMIRAULT
SOUTHKOREAANALYSIS
11/23/16
Macroecon
omic
Analyst
StockMarketKRX100 3929.66KRWKTOP30 6325.61KRW
8084889296100104108112
23/11/2015 23/04/2016 23/09/2016
KRX100Index(in%)KTOP30Index(in%)
Varia5on in 100 base demonstrate asignificant drop at the end of September onbothIndex.ThisdecreasecanbeexplainedbytheSamsungscandal. In fact,allGalaxyNote7werecalledback
BondMarket2-YearGovernmentBond +2.1%5-YearGovernmentBond +6.7%20-YearGovernmentBond +9.5%
For the first 5me the country is going toinvest in very long maturity bond (50Y) inordertosolvetheissueofageingpopula5on.Thedropinthe20Ybondmightbeduetothecorrup5onmaHer.
Announcementtofollowthenext2weeks
Last ForecastNovember24th2016ConsumerConfidence 101.9 100November29th2016IndustrialProduc5onYoY -2%RetailSalesYoY 0.5%ManufacturingProduc5onYoY -2.2%December1st2016BalanceofTrade $7.2B $10.9BGDPGrowthRateYoYFinal 3.3% 2.8%NikkeiManufacturingPMI 48December2nd2016ForeignExchangeReserves $375.17B
Source:Bloomberg
Source:Bloomberg
Source:TradingEconomics
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
9/1/16 10/1/16
5YBond 2YBond 20YBond
Source:Bloomberg
IstheTrumppolicygoingtoaffecttheSouthKoreaneconomy?Ishegoingtohaveapolicyofcoali5onorapolicyagainstthecurrentagreementsuchasthefreemovement?Alltheseques5onsaregoingtobeansweredinthenextfewweeks.
ThisisabadyearforSamsung.Firstly,thecompanywasamongthefirmsaffectedbythecorrup5onscandalwithMrsChoi.Secondly,thelauchofthe“SamsungGalaxyNote7”wasbroughttoahaltduetoburningtroubles.InOctoberthemarketcapitaliza5ondecreasedfrom1.703to1.553within5days.
Samsungscandal