CTCP Dch v tng hp Si Gn

M giao dch: SVC Reuters: SVC.HM Bloomberg: SVC VN

Ph hp vi u t gi tr

Ngnh t

Bo co ln u

Thng 3, 2015

BVSC khuyn ngh OUTPERFORM c phiu SVC vi gi mc tiu 20.900

ng/c phiu bng 3 phng php nh gi DCF, P/E v P/B. Nhn chung,

SVC thch hp i vi cc nh u t gi tr vi cc im nhn u t chnh:

SVC l mt trong nh phn phi t hng u trong khi VAMA, chim

10,3% th phn vi cc thng hiu nh Toyota v Ford. y u l

nhng tn tui c th phn ng k v t mc tng trng tt trong

nm 2014. Nh c cu sn phm tp trung phn khc gi trung bnh

thp ph hp vi nhu cu v thu nhp ti Vit Nam, BVSC cho rng

SVC s tip tc t c mc tng trng doanh s tng ng vi

ton ngnh trong thi gian ti.

D bo li nhun sau thu nm 2015 SVC t 61,5 t ng, tng

trng 18% so vi nm 2014. EPS d phng t 2.460 ng/c phiu.

C phiu SVC ang giao dch mc P/E forward 6,7 ln thp hn

trung bnh ngnh 7,2 ln; vi nhng chuyn bin tch cc trong tiu th

t, SVC ni ring cng nh ngnh t ni chung c th c th

trng nh gi cc mc P/E cao hn.

SVC c lch s tr c tc tin mt u n vi t l trn 10% mnh gi,

tng ng vi sut c tc 7,1%.

Tuy nhin, nh u t cng cn ch n ri ro nh iu hnh c th ban

hnh nhiu bin php hnh chnh nhm kim sot tnh trng nhp khu t

t khi thu sut bt buc phi gim theo l trnh hp tc AFTA. Bn cnh ,

n u vic m ca ngnh t trong nc, nhiu doanh nghip phn phi

t mi c th s c hnh thnh v qua , cnh tranh trong ngnh s gia

tng trong thi gian ti.

Mt s ch s ti chnh ca SVC

Ch s ti chnh 2012 2013 2014 2015F

Doanh thu T VND 5.414 6.582 7.930 8.795

EBITDA T VND 110 126 190 211

EBIT T VND 63 79 145 152

LNST T VND 45 41 52 62

EPS VND 1.794 1.647 2.089 2.458

P/E x 9,14 9,96 7,85 6,67

P/B x 0,56 0,55 0,54 0,52

ROA % 1,7% 2,2% 3,2% 3,9%

ROE % 6,3% 8,3% 11,6% 13,3%

Khuyn ngh OUTPERFORM

Gi k vng (VND) 20.900

Gi th trng (26/02/2014) 16.800

Li nhun k vng 24,4%

THNG TIN C PHN

Sn giao dch HSX

Khong gi 52 tun VN/CP12.800-20.000

Vn ha 42 T VN

SL c phiu lu hnh 24.875.507 CP

KLGD bnh qun 10 ngy 22.305 CP

S hu nc ngoi 15,42%

Room nc ngoi 49%

Gi tr c tc/c phn 1.200 VN/CP

T l c tc/th gi 7,14%

Beta 0,88

BIN NG GI

YTD 1T 3T 6T

SVC -2,9% 1,8% -3,4% 3,1%

VN-Index 3,5% 3,9% 1,8% -6,3%

Chuyn vin phn tch

Trng S Ph

(84 8) 3914 6888 ext: 122

truongsyphu@baoviet.com.vn

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

VN/CP C phiu

Bo co ln u SVC

2

THNG TIN S HU CH S TI CHNH D BO

S hu nh nc 40,81% Kt qu kinh doanh

n v (t VND)

2012 2013 2014 2015F

Doanh thu 5.414 6.582 7.930 8.795

Gi vn

5.029 6.187 7.432 8.247

Li nhun gp

385 396 498 548

Doanh thu ti chnh

28 45 11 8

Chi ph ti chnh

183 85 67 75

Li nhun sau thu

45 41 52 62

Bng cn i k ton

n v (t VND)

2012 2013 2014 2015F

Tin & khon tng ng tin

222 187 186 117

Cc khon phi thu ngn hn

230 322 255 283

Hng tn kho

251 327 325 361

Ti sn c nh hu hnh

678 784 688 687

Cc khon u t ti chnh di hn

393 274 300 300

Tng ti sn

2.714 2.806 2.648 2.615

N ngn hn

909 1.080 966 1.088

N di hn

903 808 711 518

Vn ch s hu

733 742 754 786

Tng ngun vn

2.714 2.806 2.648 2.615

Ch s ti chnh

Ch tiu

2012 2013 2014 2015F

Ch tiu tng trng

Tng trng doanh thu (%)

-12,0% 21,6% 20,5% 10,9%

Tng trng li nhun sau thu (%)

0.5% -8,2% 26,9% 17,7%

Ch tiu sinh li

Li nhun gp bin (%)

7,1% 6,0% 6,3% 6,2%

ROA (%) 1,7% 2,2% 3,2% 3,9%

ROE (%) 6,3% 8,3% 11,6% 13,3%

Ch tiu c cu vn

Tng n/Tng ti sn (%)

37% 35% 31% 33%

Tng n/Tng vn ch s hu (%)

137% 132% 107% 111%

Ch tiu trn mi c phn

EPS (ng/c phn)

1.794 1.647 2.089 2.458

Gi tr s sch (ng/c phn)

29.327 29.670 30.165 31.424

S hu nc ngoi 15,42%

S hu khc 43,77%

C NG LN

Tng cng ty Bn Thnh 40,81%

Jom Silkkitie Investment Fund 9,01%

Bo co ln u SVC

3

Tng quan ngnh t Vit Nam

Cng nghip t Vit Nam l mt trong nhng ngnh sinh sau mun, ra i sau cc nc trong

khu vc nh Thi Lan v Malaysia t 40-50 nm. K t nm 1992 n nay, ngnh t lun c l

mt trong nhng ngnh cng nghip trng im v thng c hng cc u i nht nh so vi

nhng ngnh khc. C th, i ly cam kt t l ni a ho, chnh ph Vit Nam ch ng cho

cc doanh nghip sn xut & lp rp t trong nc min gim t 60-100% mc thu sut theo biu

thu tiu th c bit trong thi hn 5 nm u v nu tip tc l c th ko di thi hn thm 1-5

nm tip theo. Bn cnh , bo h ngnh t trong nc, thu sut nhp khu t nguyn chic

lun c p dng mc cao, trung bnh 100% trong giai on 1991-2005 v hin ti l 70% i

vi cc nc trong khi WTO v 50% i vi cc nc trong khu vc ASEAN.

C cu th phn v tiu th t ti Vit Nam

Th phn c tp trung cao: Trong nm 2014, 78% th phn trong nc c nm gi bi

Trng Hi, Toyota, Ford v Honda; y cng l nhng doanh nghip c c s sn xut trong nc

v c nhiu mu sn phm c t l ni a ho trn mc trung bnh ca ton ngnh. iu ng ch

l Trng Hi ln u tin vt Toyota tr thnh doanh nghip c th phn ln nht 31,7% nh s

tng trng mnh ca cc dng t ti THACO, THACO KIA v c bit l Vinamazda. Cc doanh

nghip cn li nhn chung u t c mc tng trng tt ngoi tr GM Vietnam, Suzuki v

Mitsubishi.

Bng 1: Th phn t Vit Nam

(Ngun: VAMA)

Tiu th t tp trung phn khc trung cp: C th thy c cu tiu th t hng nm Vit

Nam tp trung kh mnh cc thng hiu nh Toyota (30,6%), KIA (8,4%), Vinamazda (7%), Ford

(10,4%) v Honda (5,1%). y u l nhng tn tui c nhiu dng t trung cp vi trng tm l

gi bn cnh tranh v hiu qu kinh t khi s dng.

31.69%

30.56%

10.47%

4.86%

3.84%

3.28%

2.82%

2.11%1.80%

2.06%

2.01% 1.72% 1.14%Thaco

Toyota

Ford

Honda

GM

Visuco

Isuzu

Mercedes Benz

VEAM

Hino

Vinamotor

Vinastar

Bo co ln u SVC

4

Chui gi tr ngnh t Vit Nam

Trong giai on 2011-2013, s lng t tiu th hng nm ti Vit Nam bnh qun t 110.000

chic, trong 80% l lp rp trong nc v 20% l nhp khu. i vi t lp rp trong nc, t

ti chim i a s nh t l ni a ho cao vi cc thng hiu nh Trng Hi (THACO) v t

Cu Long (TMT); trong khi xe con chim t trng nh hn vi mt s tn tui nh THACO KIA,

Vinamazda, Ford v Toyota. V nhp khu th c cu sn phm kh a dng gm nhiu chng loi

v thng hiu, c bit xu hng mi trong nm 2014 l cc chng loi xe ti nng & nh, xe u

ko gi r t Trung Quc ng ph vi chnh sch kim sot ti trng ca b Giao Thng Vn Ti.

Cc thng hiu t c mt ti Vit Nam thng u t h thng phn phi ring hoc hp tc vi

cc i l a sn phm ca mnh n khch hng. Nhn chung, c th phn loi nh sau:

i l 1S: Ch bao gm showroom trng by t

i l 2S: Ch bao gm garage cung cp dch v sa cha bo tr v ph tng, khng

trng by t

i l 3S: Kt hp 2 loi hnh 1S v 2S

Bng 2: Chui gi tr ngnh t Vit Nam

(Ngun: BMI, VAMA, BVSC tng hp)

Ngnh cng nghip sn xut v lp rp t trc nhiu th thch

Bt cp trong ng li quy hoch ngnh t: Theo thng k ca BMI vo cui nm 2014, t l

ni a ho Vit Nam ch mi t trung bnh 10%, thp hn ng k so vi mc quy hoch 40-50%

vo nm 2010 ca b Cng Thng cho thy nhng vn nht nh. Mt mt cc nh sn xut &

lp rp t trong nc cha c nh tng quy m sn xut v nng t l ni a ho do ngnh cng

nghip ph tr cn km pht trin; mt khc cc doanh nghip sn xut linh kin - ph tng t li

khng mun m rng u t do dung lng th trng qu nh. Tm li, chnh sch ca nh nc

ang c nhiu mu thun khi a ra nhiu u i cho cc nh sn xut nhng ng thi li p nhiu

mc thu km hm tiu th t do c s h tng cha pht trin theo kp. V l do ny, gi t ti

Vit Nam lun thuc hng cao nht d thu nhp bnh qun u ngi thp hn ng k so vi cc

nc trong khu vc.

Bo co ln u SVC

5

Bng 3: So snh gi Toyota Vios 1.5G A/T v t l xe/1,000 ngi gia cc nc ASEAN

(Ngun: BVSC tng hp, Euromonitor)

Theo quyt nh s 1168/Q-TTg v chin lc pht trin ngnh cng nghip t Vit Nam, n

nm 2020 t l ni a ho s t trung bnh 30-45% i vi cc loi xe tp trung v 25-35% i vi

cc ph tng nh ng c, hp s v m t.

Cnh tranh l tt yu trong qu trnh hi nhp: T l ni a ho nc ta hin nay khng ng

u gia cc loi xe, vi mc 40% cho t ti trong khi t con ch t trn di 10%. BVSC nhn

thy mng sn xut lp rp xe ti vi t l ni a ho tt hn nu y mnh quy m sn xut s c

nhiu c hi trong vic cnh tranh vi nhng sn phm xe ti t nc ngoi m c bit l t Trung

Quc. Tuy nhin, mng sn xut v lp rp t con li t ra yu th hn do t l ni a ho cn thp

li ng trc nguy c cnh tranh khc lit khi thu nhp khu tip tc c ct gim, t bit l

thu i vi t t khu vc ASEAN cam kt s xo b k t 2018. Nn bit rng, Thi Lan l nh

sn xut t thuc top 5 th gii v ln nht ti ng Nam , vi t l ni a ho sn xut ln n

80-90%. Theo thng k ca Thailand Automotive Institute, 58 trong tng 100 nh sn xut t v ph

tng hng u th gii ang c c s sn xut ti quc gia ny.

Bng 4: Doanh s xe con gia Vit Nam v cc nc trong khu vc (vt: nghn chic)

(Ngun: VAMA, CAMPI, JATO, GAIKINDO, EUROMONITOR, BVSC tng hp)

$-

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

VietnamIndonesia

Philippines

Thailand

Malaysia

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100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam

Bo co ln u SVC

6

Lnh vc phn phi t khi sc

Tiu th t tip tc kh quan: Theo thng k ca hip hi t Vit Nam VAMA, doanh s bn xe

ca ton th trng t 20.208 chic trong thng 12 (+53% yoy) v l thng th 20 lin tip tiu th

gi c tng trng. V c cu ngun gc, sn lng xe lp rp trong nc tng 32% trong khi

xe nhp khu tng n 83% so vi cng k nm trc. Nh vy trong c nm 2014, tiu th t

vt hn 157.000 chic (+43% yoy). BVSC cho rng mc tng trng n tng trn l kt qu cng

hng ca nhu cu tng mnh v vic gim nhiu loi thu, trong thu trc b c gim t

15% xung 10%, thu nhp khu t nguyn chic cn 70% i vi thnh vin WTO v 50% i vi

cc nc ASEAN.

Bng 5: Tiu th t trong nm 2014 (vt: chic)

(Ngun: VAMA)

Xe ti gi r Trung Quc ln ngi: Chnh sch kim sot ti trng ca b Giao Thng Vn Ti

c p dng k t thng 4/2014 c nhng tc ng r nt ln tiu th xe ti. Nhm m bo

kh nng thc hin cc hp ng vn chuyn hin ti v n u cao im ch hng vo dp Tt

2015, cc cng ty vn ti ang bt u mua mi thm nhiu phng tin vi xu hng tng dn v

cui nm. Tnh n ht thng 10/2014, doanh s xe ti ton th trng t gn 44.500 chic, tng

n 38,5% so vi cng k nm trc. Ring nhp khu xe ti t 30.000 chic (+42,9% yoy) trong

xe nhp khu t Trung Quc t 9.650 xe, tng t bin n 205%. BVSC cho rng do gi bn r

hn ng k so vi cc hng xe ni a hoc t cc th trng nhp khu khc nh Hn Quc v

Nht, xe ti Trung Quc ang l gii php tnh th hng u ca cc doanh nghip vn ti hin nay,

c bit l i vi cc doanh nghip va v nh.

23.11%

71.97%

38.82%

29.17%

24.69%22.62%

34.71%

58.97%

65.04%

45.28%

57.21%

53.03%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12

2014 2013 Tng trng yoy (%)

Bo co ln u SVC

7

Bng 6: Thng k nhp khu xe ti qua cc nm (vt: chic)

(Ngun: Cc Hi Quan)

Tng cng kim sot cht lng phng tin c gii ng b: Theo thng t s

53/2014/TT-BGTVT, k t 1/12/2014 cc phng tin c gii ng b bt buc phi tri qua bo

dng nh k nhm m bo an ton v cht lng khi tham gia giao thng. Cc iu kin xc

nh thi im mt phng cn tin hnh bo dng c da trn qung ng hoc thi gian k

t ln bo dng trc, tu iu kin no n trc:

Bng 7: Quy nh bo tr bo dng phng tin giao thng

Loi t Chu k bo dng

Qung ng (km) Thi gian (thng)

t con 5.000 - 10.000 6

t ch ngi, 10 ch tr ln 4.000 - 8.000 3 6

t ti, t chuyn dng 4.000 - 8.000 3 6

(Ngun: B GTVT)

BVSC cho rng trin vng ca lnh vc phn phi t ang kh kh quan do vic gim thu v kim

sot ti trng bn cnh kch thch tiu th t cn c tc ng cng hng vi quy nh v bo tr

bo dng lm cho nhu cu s dng cc dch v km theo tip tc tng ln. Ni cch khc, vai tr

ca cc nh phn phi t s cng c cng c trong thi gian ti, c bit l cc n v c nhiu

i l t chun 2S v 3S c kh nng cung ng ph tng t v dch v sa cha. Cn bit rng,

li nhun chnh ca lnh vc bn l t ny ch yu n t cc dch v theo km vi bin li nhun

c th ln n 30% trong khi hot ng phn phi thng ch c bin li nhun khong 6-7% i vi

xe khch v 15% i vi xe ti. Thc t cho thy cc doanh nghip t ln u c nhng chuyn

bin rt tch cc trong kt qu kinh doanh nm 2014.

-

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2011 2012 2013 10T 2014

Nhp khu xe ti c nc Nhp khu xe ti Trung Quc

Bo co ln u SVC

8

Bng 8: Tng trng doanh thu/li nhun ca cc doanh nghip t tiu biu trong nm 2014

Doanh nghip Thng hiu Tng trng doanh thu (%) Tng trng li nhun (%)

HAX Mercedes Benz 78% 586%

HHS Dongfeng 185% 66%

SVC Toyota, Ford, GM 21% 27%

TMT Cu Long 172% 1.290%

THACO KIA, Mazda,

THACO Bus &

Truck

65% 188%

(Ngun: BCTC cng ty)

Trin vng tiu th t ti Vit Nam

BVSC cho rng d a nhu cu tiu th t ti Vit Nam tip tc tng trng vn cn kh ln khi

so snh vi cc th trng khc trong khu vc. Ngoi ra, chnh sch hin ti ca nh nc i vi

cc vn hi nhp, giao thng h tng, v.v cng ng vai tr h tr th trng t Vit Nam

tip tc pht trin.

T trng xe con vn cn thp: Tng s lng t ang lu hnh ti Vit Nam tnh n cui 2013 l

1,63 triu xe trong xe con ch chim 44%, kh thp khi so snh vi mc trung bnh 80% ca khu

vc chu Thi Bnh Dng theo thng k ca MarketLine.

L trnh gim thu c thng qua: Theo Thng t 165/2014/TT-BTC, biu thu nhp khu u

i c bit i vi mt hng t t khu vc ASEAN c ban hnh vi l trnh gim dn t 50%

trong nm 2015 v mc 0% n nm 2018. iu ny s lm cho gi t trong nc gim ng k

gp phn kch thch nhu cu mua sm t trong nhng nm ti.

H thng c s h tng giao thng ngy cng hon thin: Xt ring TP.H Ch Minh khu vc

tiu th t ln nht c nc, c s h tng dng nh cha p ng c nhu cu i li ngy

cng tng khi mt ng giao thng hin ti ch mc 1,4 km/km2 v din tch dng cho giao

thng ch t di 6%. Tuy nhin, vi ch trng quy hoch mt giao thng t 2,2 km/km2 v

din tch dng cho giao thng t 12,2% n nm 2020, cng vic xy dng mi cng nh ci thin

hiu qu cc h thng giao thng cng cng hin c, BVSC cho rng lu lng xe my s gim

trong thi gian ti to iu kin cho t lu thng thun tin hn trong ni thnh. y cng l mt

yu t h tr rt quan trng i vi tiu th t trong tng lai.

Da trn mc tng trng kp 12,7% i vi xe con v 7,4% i vi xe ti trong 5 nm ti, chng ti

d bo t l xe con s t 53% trong khi xe ti gim cn 39% thi im cui nm 2019.

Bo co ln u SVC

9

Bng 9: D bo tiu th t (2014-2019) (vt: chic)

(Ngun: BMI, VAMA)

Bng 10: D bo c cu t lu hnh (2014-2019)

(Ngun: BVSC d bo)

Cc yu t ri ro

Ri ro chnh sch: Trong bi cnh t nhp khu t vo th trng Vit Nam trong khi c s vt

cht h tng giao thng trong ngn hn vn cha kh nng h tr, kh nng cc nh iu hnh

khu vc ban hnh thm cc bin php hnh chnh tm thi kim hm tng trng qu mc

trong mua sm t l hon ton c th xy ra. V d gn y nht l vic TP. H Ch Minh xut

tng thu trc b tr li mc 15%, yu cu chng minh s hu t phi km theo bi xe hoc

thm ch l a ra kin phi qun l bng bin php u gi c gii hn quyn s dng t trong

thnh ph.

Ri ro cnh tranh: i cc nh sn xut t trong nc chnh l sc p phi cnh tranh trc tip

vi cc nn cng nghip t pht trin vt bc ca cc nc trong khu vc ASEAN, c bit l

Thi Lan. i vi cc nh phn phi t th chnh l ri ro cc i l t phi cnh tranh vi nhau khi

ngy cng c nhiu i th nhn thy c hi v tham gia vo chui bn l t.

19.4%

35.7%

10.4%

7.6% 8.2%8.8% 8.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2012 2013 2014E 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Xe lp rp Xe nhp khu Tng trng (%)

42.9% 44.7% 46.4%48.0% 49.5% 51.0%

52.5%

43.2% 42.6%42.0% 41.3%

40.7% 40.0%39.3%

13.9% 12.7% 11.7% 10.7% 9.8%9.0% 8.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013 2014E 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Xe con Xe ti Khc

Bo co ln u SVC

10

CTCP Dch v Tng hp Si Gn

Cng ty c phn Dch v tng hp Si Gn (SAVICO) tin thn l l Cng ty Dch v Qun 1

c thnh lp t 1982 vi ngnh ngh chnh bao gm nhiu hot ng cung cp dch v nh may

o, git i, un tc, giy da, sa cha in lnh, in t SAVICO chnh thc chuyn sang m

hnh Cng ty c phn k t 2005 vi tm nhn chin lc tp trung vo 3 lnh vc: Dch v thng

mi, Dch v bt ng sn v Dch v ti chnh.

Bng 1: C cu doanh thu

Bng 2: C cu li nhun gp

(Ngun: BCTC SVC, BVSC c tnh)

Mng phn phi t & xe my

y l mng hot ng chnh ca SAVICO v ng gp trn 90% tng doanh thu hng nm, trong

xe my chim t trng ln v s lng nhng t li chim t trng ln nht v gi tr.

Phn phi t: SAVICO l doanh nghip phn phi t hng u Vit Nam, s hu 18 i l trn

ton quc, tp trung ch yu khu vc TP.H Ch Minh v H Ni vi cc thng hiu ph bin

nh Chevrolet, Ford, Honda, Toyota, Hyundai v Suzuki. a s cc i l ca SAVICO u thuc

chun 3S, trng by - bn t v ng thi cung cp dch v bo hnh sa cha.

Toyota: TP.H Ch Minh (3), H Ni (3), Cn Th (1) v Hi Dng (1)

Ford: TP.H Ch Minh (3), Cn Th (1), Bnh nh (1), Nng (1) v Gia Lai (1)

Hyundai: Nng (1)

Chevrolet: TP.H Ch Minh (1)

Suzuki: TP.H Ch Minh (1)

Cc n v trong h thng SAVICO chim 20,2% th phn Toyota, 28% th phn Ford, 7% th phn

GM v 12,5% th phn Suzuki trong nm 2013.

92%

6%

2% 0%

Phn phi t & xe my Dch v t & xe my

Dch v BS u t Bt ng sn

43%

34%

22%

1%

Phn phi t & xe my Dch v t & xe my

Dch v BS u t Bt ng sn

Bo co ln u SVC

11

Bng 3: Th phn SVC (2012-2013)

Bng 4: Sn lng t tiu th ton h thng SVC

(Ngun: SVC, BVSC d bo)

Ngoi thi im nm 2012 khi doanh s ton th trng gim mnh do tiu th km th sn lng

bn hng ca h thng SAVICO u tng trng tt. Th phn ca cng ty xt trn tng thng

hiu t c xu hng gim nh cho thy cnh tranh lnh vc phn phi t ngy cng gay gt.

Tuy vy, SAVICO vn duy tr c v th l mt trong nhng nh phn phi hng u hip hi

VAMA vi th phn 10,3% trong nm 2013, tng 0,5% so vi 2012.

Phn phi xe my: SAVICO hin ang phn phi hai thng hiu xe my quen thuc ti Vit Nam

l Yamaha v Suzuki vi 15 i l tp trung ch yu khu vc pha Nam.

Yamaha: Cn Th (4), TP.H Ch Minh (1), Vnh Long (1)

Suzuki: TP.H Ch Minh (5) , Cn Th (3), An Giang (1)

Do tnh hnh tiu th xe my kh khn nn sn lng bn hng trong nm 2013 ca SAVICO ch

t 16.604 chic, gim n 21% so vi nm 2012. y cng l nm u tin trong 7 nm gn nht

h thng phn phi xe my ca cng ty khng c li nhun.

Mng dch v t & xe my

Cung cp dch v t l hot ng mang li hiu qu kinh t cao, ng gp n 34% li nhun gp

ca ton cng ty trong nm 2013 d ch chim 9% tng doanh thu. Bin li nhun bnh qun ca

mng ny trong 3 nm tr li y dao ng mc 30%, ch thp hn mng bt ng sn u t.

S hu nhiu i l phn phi t chun 2S-3S ti trung tm cc thnh ph ln l th mnh quan

trng ca SAVICO khng nhng v tiu th t m cn trong cung cp cc dch v sa cha, bo

dng v tn trang. Bn cnh , cng ty cn ang iu hnh mt trung tm mua bn t qua

s dng duy nht ca Toyota ti min Nam. BVSC cho rng y l li th cnh tranh khc bit gip

SAVICO c th tip cn vi nhiu phn khc khch hng khc nhau.

21.5%

31.8%

7.0%

15.9%

9.8%

20.2%

28.0%

6.9%

12.5%10.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Toyota Ford GM Suzuki VAMA

2012 2013

11.3%

-22.4%

23.2%

33.1%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E

Sn lng t tiu th (chic) Tng trng (%)

Bo co ln u SVC

12

Mng kinh doanh bt ng sn

Bt ng sn u t mang li hiu qu cao nht vi t sut li nhun gp t bnh qun trn 80%

v l mt trong 3 mng hot ng ch o trong chin lc pht trin ca SAVICO trong nhng

nm ti. Trc tnh hnh th trng bt ng sn cn gp nhiu kh khn, cng ty ch trng ct

gim tng ti sn ca mng ny to ngun thu v tp trung khai thc nhng d n c hiu qu

cao, gp phn pht trin h thng dch v bt ng sn n nh, bn vng.

C th, SAVICO thoi vn ti cc d n nh Icon 56 Bn Vn n Q4 cho Novaland v 1 phn

d n Khu dn c Tam Bnh Hip Phc Th c cho DXG (Sunview Town). Ngoi ra, cng ty

cng ang tin hnh chuyn nhng cc d n khc nh Savico Plaza 104 Ph Quang cho

Novaland v Savico Plaza H Tng Mu cho Vinaland Investment Limited; cc d n ny c th

to ra li nhun t bin trong nm 2015.

Bng 5: Tng hp cc d n Bt ng sn ca SAVICO

D n V tr S hu Din tch t Tnh trng

SAVICO Plaza 115-117 H Tng Mu,

Q.1 TP.HCM

25% 3.023 m2 ang tin hnh chuyn

nhng cho Vinaland

SAVICO Plaza 104 Ph Quang, Q.Tn

Bnh TP.HCM

100% 9.028 m2 ang tin hnh chuyn

nhng cho Novaland

SAVICO Megamall Nguyn Vn Linh, H Ni 46.400 m2 khai thc t 12/2011

Nam Cm L i l Phm Hng,

Nng

100% 21.822 m2 Hon thnh ng giao

thng ni b

ang tip tc tm i tc

u t

TTTM SAVICO Nng 66 V Vn Tn, Q.Thanh

Kh, Nng

100% Khai thc t 01/2007

Cng sut 95%

TTTM SAVICO Cn Th 101 Trn Vn Kho,

Q.Ninh Kiu, Cn Th

100% Khai thc t 2007

HMTC SAVICO 91 Pasteur, Q.1 TP.HCM 51% 1.604 m2 Khai thc t 09/2010

Cng sut khai thc 100%

To VP 555 Trn Hng

o

555 Trn Hng o, Q.1

TP.HCM

100% Khai thc t 06/2008

To VP 95B-97-99 Trn

Hng o

95B-97-99 Trn Hng

o, Q.1 TP.HCM

100% Khai thc t 01/2006

To VP 35 ng Khi 35 ng Khi, Q.1

TP.HCM

100% Khai thc t Q3/2009

Cng sut khai thc 100%

To nh 66-68 NKKN,

Q.1 TP.HCM

66-68 Nam K Khi

Ngha, Q.1 TP.HCM

100% 582,2 m2 ang tm i tc u t d

n

Bo co ln u SVC

13

To VP 277-279 L T

Trng, Q.1 TP.HCM

277-279 L T Trng, Q.1

TP.HCM

20% 450 m2 Hon tt mng v sn

tng hm 1

ang chn thu thi cng

M&E, phn thn v hon

thin (3/2015)

KCH cao tng Hip Bnh

Phc Tam Bnh, Th

c

ng G Da & ng

s 12, Q. Th c,

TP.HCM

100% 55.340 m2 thu vn gp 46 phn

t nn, tip tc xc tin

phn cn li

hch ton phn chung

c chuyn nhng cho

DXG

KCH cao tng QL13, Th

c

QL13, Q.Th c,

TP.HCM

100% 18.247 m2 Hon thnh th tc cp

giy chng nhn quyn s

dng t

ang tm i tc u t

Trung tm tic ci

Melisa

1014B Thoi Ngc Hu,

Q.Tn Ph TP.HCM

10.814 m2 Khi cng t Q1/2014

D kin khai thc t

Q3/2014

Resort Mecure Sn Tr Nng 100% 57.650 m2 ang nghim thu phn h

tng v villa mu

Hon thnh thit k khch

sn v villa. Tip tc

qung b v tip th

D n H Trm Xuyn

Mc

B Ra Vng Tu 96.300 m2 Tip tc tip hnh n b

v gii to

(Ngun: BCTN, BCTC, Website SVC)

Bo co ln u SVC

14

Phn tch ti chnh

Tng trng doanh thu

C th nhn thy ngoi tr nm 2012 khi sc mua t ca ton th trng trong nc suy yu, tng trng

doanh thu ca SVC u c duy tr n nh mc 2 ch s. Nm 2014 t l tng trng SVC c phn yu

th hn cc doanh nghip khc vi cc l do chnh nh sau:

Thng hiu Mercedes Benz ang c phn phi bi HAX tng trng n tng 63% so vi mc

23% ca Toyota trong nm 2014.

HHS v TMT c c mc tng trng t bin l do tc ng ca chnh sch kim sot trng ti

khin cho cc loi xe ti lp rp (TMT) v nhp khu t Trung Quc (HHS) bn hng rt tt. Tuy nhin,

t l ny kh c th duy tr trong trung di hn do nhu cu xe ti hng nm thng kh n nh.

Bin li nhun gp Bin li nhun thun

Bin li nhun gp ca SVC n nh mc 6-7% trong giai on 2012-2014 v ch thuc mc trung bnh nu

so snh vi cc doanh nghip khc:

Bn cht hot ng phn phi xe ti ca TMT v HHS thng c bin li nhun cao hn xe con.

Nu so snh bin li nhun gp vi doanh nghip cng phn phi xe con l HAX th SVC cho thy hiu

qu cao hn nh quy m doanh thu ln.

2012 2013 2014

SVC -12.00% 21.39% 20.38%

HAX -36.59% 6.84% 77.58%

HHS -26.16% 7.78% 185.37%

TMT -34.39% -6.01% 150.10%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

SVC HAX HHS TMT

2012 2013 2014

SVC 7.10% 6.01% 6.27%

HAX 3.10% 4.14% 2.95%

HHS 16.85% 18.63% 12.75%

TMT 9.49% 11.16% 12.00%

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%20%

SVC HAX HHS TMT

2012 2013 2014

SVC 0.86% 0.93% 1.09%

HAX -3.71% 0.21% 1.36%

HHS 15.10% 16.44% 9.54%

TMT 0.24% 1.13% 4.69%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

SVC HAX HHS TMT

Bo co ln u SVC

15

Bin li nhun thun ca SVC ang c s ci thin dn t mc 0,86% nm 2012 ln 1,09% nm 2014. y l

mc ci thin rt ng k nu xt trn doanh thu gn 8.000 t hng nm ca cng ty. Tuy nhin, con s trn

vn cn thp so vi cc doanh nghip cng ngnh do:

Bin li nhun thun ca HAX nm 2014 ch cao hn SVC do cng ty vn cn l lu k nn chi ph

thu trong k rt thp.

Bin li nhun gp ca HHS v TMT cao hn.

HHS c hng u i thu do c cu lao ng bao gm ngi khuyt tt.

H s hot ng kh quan: Cc ch s vng quay tn kho v vng quay khon phi thu u tch cc hn so

vi nm 2013 vi s ci thin ln lt l t 18,9 ln 22,9 ln v 20,4 ln 31,1 ln. Bn cnh , nh doanh thu

tng trng tt trong nm 2014, h s vng quay tng ti sn cng tng t 2,4 ln 2,9 ln.

Hiu qu trn vn ch s hu ngy cng c ci thin: H s t sut li nhun trn vn ch s hu

chuyn bin tch cc t mc 6,3% nm 2012 ln 11,6% nm 2014, ch yu l nh t sut li nhun thun v

vng quay tng ti sn u tng so vi cc nm trc.

2012 2013 2014

ROE 6,34% 8,29% 11,59%

Li nhun rng (%) 0,86% 0,93% 1,09%

Vng quay tng ti sn 1,99 2,38 2,91

H s n by ti chnh 3,70 3,78 3,51

C cu ti chnh lnh mnh: N ngn hn v di hn nu gim ng k so vi nm trc khin h s n trn

vn ch s hu gim t 1,37 cn 1,07 ln. Ngoi ra, h s kh nng thanh ton li vay c ci thin t 1,43

ln 2,93 ln. Cui cng, li nhun k ton cng c cht lng cao khi h s dng tin hot ng kinh doanh

trn li nhun rng t 1,4 ln cui nm 2014.

2012 2013 2014

Vng quay tn kho 20.06 18.90 22.86

Vng quay phi thu 23.59 20.43 31.12

Vng quay tng ti sn 1.99 2.38 2.91

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Vng quay tn kho Vng quay phi thu Vng quay tng ti sn

Bo co ln u SVC

16

Cp nht kt qu kinh doanh c nm 2014

Tng doanh thu ca SVC t 7.930 t ng (+20% yoy) v li nhun trc thu ton cng ty t 119 t ng

(+40% yoy):

Mng phn phi t xe my tng trng tt: Theo thng k ca VAMA, hai thng hiu chnh ca

SVC l Toyota v Ford u c doanh s tng trng tt trong nm 2014, hng li t xu hng ci

thin dn trong tiu th t c nc nh nhiu loi thu c ct gim. Chng ti c tnh sn lng

tiu th t ton h thng SVC t 14.000 chic, tng trng 33% so vi nm trc.

Mng dch v n nh: Tng doanh thu dch v t gn 532 t ng, gim nh 10% so vi nm trc;

Doanh thu t dch v t xe my t 398 t ng trong khi mng dch v bt ng sn u t c

ng gp 134 t ng.

Kim sot chi ph cht ch: T l chi ph SG&A trn tng doanh thu gim nh cn 4,4% so vi mc

4,8% ca nm trc. iu ny cho thy h thng phn phi ca SVC c nhng ci thin tt v hot

ng hiu qu hn trong nm nay. Vi mc doanh thu khong 7.930 t ng, cng ty c th tit

kim c gn 32 t ng t cc chi ph lin quan n SG&A.

Chi ph ti chnh gim mnh: Chi ph li vay c nm t 65 t ng, gim 26% do tng n vay gim

hn 17% trong khi mt bng li sut vay cng thp hn nm trc.

Trin vng 2015: Kinh doanh ct li tip tc tng trng tt

D bo KQKD nm 2015

(n v: t ng) 2015F 2014E yoy (%) Gii thch

Doanh thu 8.795 7.930 +11,0% Doanh thu phn phi t t 8.236 t ng,

tng ng vi sn lng 15.456 chic

(+10,4% yoy)

Doanh thu dch v BS t 120 t ng; dch

v t t 439 t ng

Gi vn hng bn 8.247 7.433 +11,0%

Li nhun gp 548 498 +10,0% Phn phi t: 4,6%

Dch v garage: 19%

Dch v BS: 82% (t cc d n hot ng

n nh nhiu nm, chi ph ch yu l khu

hao)

SG&A 395 352 +12,2% Gi nh chi ph ny t l/doanh thu tng t

nh nm 2014

Bo co ln u SVC

17

DT ti chnh 8 11 -27,3%

CP ti chnh 67 65 +3,1% Gi nh li sut vay trung bnh khng bin

ng mnh trong nm 2015.

Li nhun trc thu 131 119 +10,0%

Li nhun sau thu (c

ng cng ty m)

62 52 +19,2% Mc li nhun d bo ny ch bao gm cc

hot ng kinh doanh chnh, cha tnh cc

khon t bin c th ghi nhn thm t vic

chuyn nhng 2 d n SAVICO Plaza Ph

Quang v H Tng Mu

nh gi SAVICO

Phng php nh gi: nhn mnh tm quan trng ca mng kinh doanh t, dch v bo tr bo dng

t v dch v bt ng sn u t, BVSC chn Chit khu dng tin FCFF lm phng php ch o trong

qu trnh nh gi c phiu SVC. Ngoi ra, chng ti cng cp thm cc phng php P/E v P/B nh

gi tng quan SVC vi cc cng ty thuc ngnh t v bt ng sn.

C s nh gi:

Mng bn l t: Bm st d bo ca BMI, mc tng trng v sn lng t ca ton h thng SVC

gi nh t bnh qun 8,6% trong giai on 2015-2019.

Mng bn l xe my: Gi nh sn lng xe my tng trng nh 2%/nm trong giai on 2015-2019,

phn nh s bo ho ca th trng xe my Vit Nam.

Mng dch v t xe my: Gi nh tng trng cng mc vi sn lng bn hng ca SVC

Mng dch v bt ng sn u t: Gi nh cc d n hin ti s tip tc hot ng n nh trong

nhng nm ti. Chng ti cha tnh n hiu qu ca cc d n cha c trin khai.

Bin li nhun: n nh mc 6% trong giai on 2015-2019; trong bn l (4,6%), dch v t xe

my (19%), dch v bt ng sn u t (82%)

Tng trng di hn: 2%

Sut chit khu WACC: 14,3%

Phng php nh gi Gi mc tiu T trng Bnh qun gia quyn

FCFF 20.887 60% 12.532

P/E = 7,2x 17.712 20% 3.543

P/B = 0,8x 24.132 20% 4.827

Gi trung bnh 100% 20.902

Bo co ln u SVC

18

Khuyn ngh u t

BVSC khuyn ngh OUTPERFORM c phiu SVC vi gi mc tiu 20.900

ng/c phiu bng 3 phng php nh gi FCFF, P/E v P/B. Nhn chung,

SVC thch hp i vi cc nh u t gi tr vi cc im nhn u t chnh:

SVC l mt trong nh phn phi t hng u trong khi VAMA, chim

10,3% th phn vi cc thng hiu nh Toyota v Ford. y u l

nhng tn tui c th phn ng k v t mc tng trng tt trong nm

2014. Nh c cu sn phm tp trung phn khc gi trung bnh thp

ph hp vi nhu cu v thu nhp ti Vit Nam, BVSC cho rng SVC s

tip tc t c mc tng trng doanh s tng ng vi ton

ngnh trong thi gian ti.

D bo li nhun sau thu nm 2015 SVC t 61,5 t ng, tng trng

18% so vi nm 2014. EPS d phng t 2.460 ng/c phiu.

C phiu SVC ang giao dch mc P/E forward 6,7 ln thp hn

trung bnh ngnh 7,2 ln; vi nhng chuyn bin tch cc trong tiu th

t, SVC ni ring cng nh ngnh t ni chung c th c th trng

nh gi cc mc P/E cao hn.

SVC c lch s tr c tc tin mt u n vi t l trn 10% trn mnh

gi, tng ng vi sut c tc 7,1%.

Tuy nhin, nh u t cng cn ch n ri ro nh iu hnh c th ban hnh

nhiu bin php hnh chnh nhm kim sot tnh trng nhp khu t t khi

thu sut bt buc phi gim theo l trnh hp tc AFTA. Bn cnh , n

u vic m ca ngnh t trong nc, nhiu doanh nghip phn phi t mi

c th s c hnh thnh v qua , cnh tranh trong ngnh s gia tng trong

thi gian ti.

Bo co ln u SVC

19

THUYT MINH BO CO

Gi k vng. L mc nh gi ca chuyn vin da trn phn tch hot ng

kinh doanh ca doanh nghip, cc yu t v tim nng, trin vng pht trin, cc

ri ro m doanh nghip c th gp phi xc nh gi tr hp l c phiu ca

doanh nghip . Phng php s dng xc nh gi tr k vng l cc

phng php c s dng rng ri nh: phng php chit khu dng tin

(FCFE, FCFF, DDM); phng php nh gi da vo ti sn NAV; phng php

so snh ngang da trn cc ch s (P/E, P/B, EV/EBIT, EV/EBITDA,..). Vic p

dng phng php no ty thuc vo tng ngnh, doanh nghip, tnh cht ca

c phiu. Ngoi ra, tm l th trng cng c th nh hng ti vic xc nh gi

mc tiu ca c phiu.

H THNG KHUYN NGH CA BVSC

H thng khuyn ngh ca BVSC c xy dng trn c s mc tng/gim tuyt

i ca gi c phiu t ti gi k vng, c 5 mc khuyn ngh c BVSC s

dng tng ng vi cc mc chnh lch c ln t thp n cao. Lu l cc

khuyn ngh u t c th s thay i vo mi cui qu sau khi BVSC thc hin

nh gi li doanh nghip.

Cc mc khuyn ngh

Khuyn ngh nh ngha

OUTPERFORM Gi th trng thp hn gi k vng trn 15%

NEUTRAL Gi th trng thp hn gi k vng 0% - 15%

UNDERPERFORM Gi k vng thp hn gi th trng

KHUYN CO S DNG

Tt c nhng thng tin nu trong bo co ny c xem xt cn trng v c cho l ng tin cy nht, tuy nhin

Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bo Vit (BVSC) khng m bo tuyt i tnh chnh xc v y ca nhng thng tin

nu trn. Cc quan im, nhn nh, nh gi trong bo co ny l quan im c nhn ca cc chuyn vin phn tch ti

thi im vit bo co v c th thay i bt c lc no. Do , chng ti khng c trch nhim phi thng bo cho nh

u t.

Bo co ch nhm mc tiu cung cp thng tin m khng hm cho bn, li ko, khuyn ngui c mua, bn hay nm

gi chng khon. Nh u t ch nn s dng bo co phn tch ny nh mt ngun thng tin tham kho.

BVSC c th c nhng hot ng hp tc kinh doanh, tham gia u t hoc thc hin cc nghip v ngn hng u t

vi i tng c cp n trong bo co ny. Ngi c cn lu rng BVSC c th c nhng xung t li ch i

vi cc nh u t khi thc hin bo co phn tch ny.

B PHN PHN TCH V T VN U T

Cng ty C phn Chng khon Bo Vit

Tr s chnh: 8 L Thi T, qun Hon Kim, H Ni Chi nhnh: Tng 8, 233 ng Khi, Qun 1, Tp. HCM

Tel: (84 4) 3 928 8080 Fax: (8 44) 3 928 9888 Tel: (84 8) 3 914 6888 Fax: (84 8) 3 914 7999