Apsurdi Velike dužničke krize – prezadužene su najrazvijenije zemlje; druge velike zemlje nisu; većina

zemalja Balkana je u teškoj poziciji

Neki značajni aspekti i dileme

U drugim člancima iz ove oblasti izneli smo neke bitne podatke o korišćenju externih kredita od strane najrazvijenijih i ostalih najvećih zemalja. Zatim podatke o još nekim razvijenim ali externo veoma zaduženim zemljama. Najzad, i o externim dugovima i odgovarajućim performansama zemalja Balkana.

U ovom članku iznosimo , pa i po cenu ponavljanja, kraća akcentiranja.

(1) externi dugovi većine najrazvijeniji zemalja su enormni;

(2) zbog toga se oni, verovatno, i ne objavljuju u zvaničnim publikacijama IMF i The World Bank (što znači, u stvari, da se tretiraju tajna za svetsku javnost);

(3) pored Engleske, ima još nekoliko visoko razvijenih zemalja (prvenstveno Irska, Holandija), koje ne ulaze u klub G7, a koje su prezadužene per capita.

(4) međutim, odmah ćemo videti da ključni ekonomski parametri ukazuju da su i mnoge druge zemlje prezadužene;

Činjenica da u domenu visoke eksterne zaduženosti ima velik broj zemalja, nameće potrebu da se ovaj problem posmatra dvojako – i sa strane same zemlje–korisnika kredita i sa šireg, globalnog stanovišta. U tom smislu treba razlikovati barem sledeće grupe zemalja:

(a) externo visoko zadužene zemlje, bez obzira na nivo razvijenosti, koje ostvaruju visoke stope štednje/akumulacije i na taj način povratno jačaju  „globalnom pool of saving“;

(b) externo visoko zadužene zemlje, koje imaju više stope domaćih investicija, bez visoke finalne potrošnje i investicija u inostranstvu,

(c) externo visoko zadužene zemlje koje nemaju visoke stope domaće štednje a ipak imaju visoke stope domaće finalne potrošnje i/ili visoka vlasnička investiciona ulaganja u inostranstvu,

d) externo visoko zadužene zemlje koje nemaju koje, iako nemaju visok GDP per capita, ipak imaju visoke stope domaće finalne potrošnje i/ili visoka vlasnička investiciona ulaganja u inostranstvu, među kojima i visoko razvijenih zemalja – dakle, zemalja sa visokim domaćom potrošnjom i visokim životnim standardom, što nameće dilemu:

(1) da li su sve visoko-zadužene zemlje  u velikoj nevolji, u stanju blizu bankrotstva, ili

(2) visoka externa zaduženost, barem kod nekih, ima drugo značenje: da, uslovno rečeno „globalni finansijski sistem“ većini visoko-zaduženih zemalja omogućuje privilegovan položaj koji se ogleda u mogućnosti i efektivnom korišćenju nesrazmerno velikog dela „globalne štednje“. One koriste nesrazmerno velik deo globalne štednje, ili za svoj razvoj ili za uspostavljanje dominacije nad drugim zemljama, pa i za održavanje domaće

potrošnje, tj. životnog standarda svog stanovništva, iznad nivoa svog doprinosa globalnim ekonomskim rezultatima.

Eksterni dugovi u kontekstu šire posmatranih ekonomskih performansi zemalja - korisnika

 

External debt

stocks, total  % GDP - u

2009.

GDP per capita

(current U.S.$) u

2009

Expor of goods and service as

% of Extern debt

stocks,  pros. 2005-

09

General governm. final cons. expendit.

(% of GDP) (pros. 2005-

09)

Househ. final cons. expendit., etc. (% of

GDP) (pros. 2005-09)

Gross savings (% of GDP) (pros.

2005-09)

Gross capit. formation

(% of GDP);

Investment  (pros. 2005-

09)

FDI, net outflows

(% of GDP) - u

2009

GDP growth (annual

%) (pros. 2005-09)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Najrazvijenije/najzaduženije zemlje1.Ireland 991,7 51049,0 10,2 21,8 64,5 14,3 16,6 5,4 1,52.Netherl 471,3 47917,0 23,4 25,6 46,6 26,0 19,8 9,6 1,43. U.K. 413,0 35165,0 7,1 21,8 64,5 14,3 16,6 5,4 0,64. Portug 213,8 21903,0 17,7 20,3 66,0 12,3 22,5 1,7 0,45.France 177,3 41051,0 15,3 23,6 57,1 18,9 20,9 5,6 0,86.Greece 161,5 29240,0 43,7 17,5 73,7 7,4 19,8 1,1 2,37. Spain 148,3 31774,0 21,4 19,0 57,2 21,0 29,0 5,4 1,78. Germ 141,5 40670,0 31,2 18,5 58,0 23,8 17,6 3,5 0,69. Hunga 140,2 12868,0 80,8 9,8 66,3 16,9 23,8 22,3 0,610.Slove 114,9 23726,0 70,2 18,7 53,5 25,5 28,7 2,2 2,611. Italy 105,2 35084,0 31,8 20,4 59,2 18,7 20,8 2,6 -0,412. Croat 102,0 14222,0 50,0 19,8 56,2 22,6 28,1 3,7 1,213. U.S. 101,3 45989,0 12,4 16,2 70,5 13,0 18,1 1,9 1,014.Austra 99,5 42279,0 21,8 17,2 58,1 20,7 26,4 1,1 2,916. E.U. 83,8 32845,0 43,8 21,1 57,9 20,2 20,1 6,0 0,918. Cana 75,5 39599,0 60,3 19,8 56,2 22,6 28,1 3,7 1,223.Japan 48,2 39738,0 49,6 18,4 57,6 26,7 23,0 1,6 0,0Velike zemlje koje nisu u krugu najrazvijenije26.Argent 39,1 7.626 51,8 13,2 59,2 25,1 22,6   6,827. Russ 31 8.684 115,1 17,8 50 29,3 21,9 2,9 4,128. Indon 29,2 2.349 88,9 8,6 61,1 20,1 26,8   5,630. Mexi 21,9 8.143 145,7 10,8 65,8 24,2 25   1,332. Braz 17,4 8.230 75,8 20,4 60,2 17,1 17,5   3,533. India 17,3 1.192 125,5 10,9 57,4 20,1 35,5 1,2 8,534. Chin 8,6 3.744 341,9 13,6 35,8 52,2 43,7   11,4Ostale balkanske zemlje15.Monte 96,9 6.635 92,2 21,2 84,5 ... 28,9   4,917. Bulg 83,3 6.423 76,1 17,2 67,6 14,1 31,4   4,119.Serbi 73,6 5.872 43,2 19,3 76,2 7,9 25,7   4,120. Rom 72,9 7.500 63,8 13,3 69,5 21,1 27,5   3,821. Mace 59,7 4.515 93,1 18,4 78,6 19,7 23,8   3,622. B - H 56,2 4.525 65,5 21,4 85,1 13,6 26,1   4,124. Turk 40,9 8.215 62 12,9 70,9 15,4 20   3,225. Alb 39,3 3.808 92,3 9,2 88,1 16,2 27,8   5,3

Kategorijalna preciziranja i objašnjenja:

U kol. 2: External debt stocks, total  % GDP - u 2009.- Total external debt is debt owed to nonresidents repayable in foreign currency, goods, or services. Total external debt is the sum of public, publicly guaranteed, and private nonguaranteed long-term debt, use of IMF credit, and short-term debt. Short-term debt includes all debt having an original maturity of one year or less and interest in arrears on long-term debt. Data are in current U.S. dollars.

U kol. 3: GDP per capita (current U.S.$) u 2009 - GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in current U.S. dollars.

U kol. 4: Exports of goods and services  as % of External debt stocks, total ( current US$), pros. 2005-09 - Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) - Exports of goods and services represent the value of all goods and other market services provided to the rest of the world. They include the value of merchandise, freight, insurance, transport, travel, royalties, license fees, and other services, such as communication, construction, financial, information, business, personal, and government services. They exclude compensation of employees and investment income (formerly called factor services) and transfer payments.

U kol. 5: General governm. final cons. expendit. (% of GDP) (pros. 2005-09) - General government final consumption expenditure (formerly general government consumption) includes all government current expenditures for purchases of goods and services (including compensation of employees). It also includes most expenditures on national defense and security, but excludes government military expenditures that are part of government capital formation.

U kol. 6:  Househ. final cons.. expendit., etc. (% of GDP) - Annual percentage growth of household final consumption expenditure is based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2000 U.S. dollars. Household final consumption expenditure (formerly private consumption) is the market value of all goods and services, including durable products (such as cars, washing machines, and home computers), purchased by households. It excludes purchases of dwellings but includes imputed rent for owner-occupied dwellings. It also includes payments and fees to governments to obtain permits and licenses. Here, household consumption expenditure includes the expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households, even when reported separately by the country. This item also includes any statistical discrepancy in the use of resources relative to the supply of resources.

U kol. 7:  Gross savings (% of GDP) - Gross savings are calculated as gross national income less total consumption, plus net transfers.

U kol. 8:   Gross capit. formation (% of GDP); Investment - Annual growth rate of gross capital formation based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2000 U.S. dollars. Gross capital formation (formerly gross domestic investment) consists of outlays on additions to the fixed assets of the economy plus net changes in the level of inventories. Fixed assets include land improvements (fences, ditches, drains, and so on); plant, machinery, and equipment purchases; and the construction of roads, railways, and the like, including schools, offices, hospitals, private residential dwellings, and commercial and industrial buildings. Inventories are stocks of goods held by firms to meet temporary or unexpected fluctuations in production or sales, and "work in progress." According to the 1993 SNA, net acquisitions of valuables are also considered capital formation.

U kol. 9: FDI, net outflows (% of GDP) - Foreign direct investment are the net inflows of investment to acquire a lasting management interest (10 percent or more of voting stock) in an enterprise operating in an economy other than that of the investor. It is the sum of equity capital, reinvestment of earnings, other long-term capital, and short-term capital as shown in the balance of payments. This series shows net outflows of investment from the reporting economy to the rest of the world and is divided by GDP.

U kol. 10:  GDP growth (annual %) - Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2000 U.S. dollars. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources.

Indicators calculated from data in:

Basic source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator

Additional source: for the countries of the Balkans, Central and Eastern Europe for years (and these are transitional years, as a rule, until 1997.) For which there is no data in the primary source, used data from  Economic statistics and forecasts [EBRD - Economics] - sei - Selected economic indicators

Special note:  sources for data on external debt of most developed countries and countries with the largest debts, are Wikipedia and primary sources.

 

Oznake

(ne)zaduženost ostalih, Apsurdi, balkanskih zemalja, e, externi dugovi enormni, global pool of saving, jacna potrošnja, nedovolj izvoz, potrošnja domaćinstava, prezaduženost najrazvijenijih, slaba štednja najzdauženijih, strani dugovi, tajna za svetsku javnost, ternal debts, Velike dužničke krize