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Barbara Bryant
30 vet Asia/Pacific
Co-Founder boutique rep firm ofBryant & Tripptree
Firm appointed, PATARegional Director
Former Director HongKong Tourism-LA
Establish HK Film Dpt
VP Sales/MarketingMandarin OrientalHotels
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Slide: 3
ATME EXECUTIVE CHINA THINK TANK
Barbara Bryant, PATA North America Regional
Director
February 12-13, 2009
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Ron ErdmannDeputy DirectorOffice of Travel & Tourism Industries
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Ron Erdmann
Admin international travelresearch
Consults with clients onuse and application ofinformation
Role is to create andimprove uponinternational marketing
intelligence
Prior nearly decade withU. S. Travel & Tourism
Admin until closed
Experienced indeveloping andpromoting rural tourism
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6Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
China Research
Presented by:
Ron Erdmann
Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
International Trade Administration
U.S. Department of Commerce
February 2009
Presented to:
ATME:Think Tank
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7Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
OTTI Resources on China
Visitor volume to U.S. from China (monthly from I-94 form) U.S. resident travel to China (non-stop) (monthly) Other Data collected on DHS I-94 form (monthlyport, visa type, age of travelers,
address in U.S., etc.)
Visitor volume forecast (semi-annual)
Visitor spending (annual) Visitor profile (annual) U.S. resident travel to China (annual) Chinese visitation to all countries (annual)
China Outbound Study (one-time special study) China Travel Trade Barometer (quarterly planned)
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8Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
The China Outbound Travel Market
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9Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
China Outbound Travel
25,
0.9
40,891.4
5,64
.2
11,174.0
,151.4
4,808.4
1,216.2
1,8
4.7
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007p 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000Total Outbound Travel
Total Long-haul Travel
Data from China National Tourism Office and Global Insight Global Travel Navigator May 2008
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10Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
China Outbound Trends(total outbound travelers)
Destination 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f 06/01 11/06 11/01
GRAND TOTAL 11,170 15,097 15,711 21,536 22,753 25,120 28,299 31,585 34,775 38,183 41,789 13,949 16,670 30,619
Asia 9,34
2,
95
3,52
,9
4
9,920 22,0
24,9
2
,929 30,
4 33,
3
,0
9
2,
20
4,953 2
,
3
Europe ,39
,9
3 ,
3 2,
4 2,2
0 2,3
2,5
2,
50 3, 0
3,395 3,
9
9 ,330 2,3 9
North America 3
9 322 234 304 3
4
5 50
5
25
90
45
4
2
0 42
Middle East 35 4
54
3 92
2
40
5
3
93
2
5
Latin America 32 33 32 4
43 44 49 54 59
4
0
2 25 3
Africa 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 0 0 0
Caribbean
9
0
2
3 0 5
Hong Kong 4,449
,
25
,4
,
2,
30
3,
5,
39
,544
9,3
2
,324 23,349 9,3
3 9,5
,900
Macao
,309
,
2
,43
2,
9
2,3
0 2,
2
2,9
3,350 3,
0
4,0
4,45
,3
9
,
3
3,
49
Singapore 4
0
5
0
0
5
,03
,
9
,322
,449
,5
5
,
2
5
90
,2
Thailand
0
9
0
9
2 9
4 993
,
04
,222
,3
,524
3
0
23
Korea, Republic 4
2 539 5
3
2
0
9
,0
9
,
3
,202
,29
,402 4
5 505 920
Japan 39
452 449
53
2 90
99
,0
9
,
,295 42
4
4 904
Vietnam 625 660 693
53
9
3 9
2 ,0
,
3 ,295 66 504 670
Italy 394 53
4
0 72
725 75
5
97 977
,063
,
57 365 399 763
Russia 461 725 680 661 691 722 791 871 953 1,050 1,164 261 442 703
Malaysia 453 558 351 550 352 439 504 560 614 671 732 -14 292 279
Germany 237 270 268 293 313 327 358 395 430 468 509 90 181 272
United States 232 226 157 203 270 320 353 394 433 479 516 88 195 283
Australia 158 190 176 251 285 309 344 376 407 441 478 150 170 320
Canada 87 96 76 102 117 145 155 174 192 210 229 58 84 142
Sw itzerland 49 69 63 100 137 144 154 170 185 201 219 94 75 170
Indonesia 32 37 41 51 112 117 134 149 164 179 195 85 78 163
Belgium 62 113 107 114 109 114 122 134 146 159 173 52 60 111
Netherlands 81 82 78 82 97 113 121 134 146 158 172 32 59 92
United Kingdom 58 64 68 95 92 99 109 120 131 142 155 41 56 97
Data from China National Tourism Office and Global Insight Global Travel Navigator May 2008
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11Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
U.S. Market Share of Long-haul Travel
U.S. Market Share o Long hau Travel
17%16%
13%14%
13%
9%7% 8%
9% 10%12% 12% 12% 12% 12%
12%12%12%12%12%12%13%12%14%
16%16%18%18%
21%22%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007p 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f
U.S. % share of long haul Long haul % share ofoutbound
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12Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
What is Known about China Outbound Travel?Total Outbound
25 million in 2006
Only 12% to long-haul destinations; 70% to Hong Kong/Macau/Singapore. Strong growth across most top 20 destinations, especially Hong Kong,
Macau, Korea, Italy, Australia.
Tripling of travelers to Hong Kong from 2001-2006 (4.5M to 14M) Top long-haul destinations in 2006: Italy (807K), Russia (720K), Germany
(442K), US (321K), & Australia (309K). Total travel to all long-haul destinations was 3.2 million in 2006, forecastto grow to 4.8 million by 2011.
Sources: Global Insights Inc. Global Travel Navigator; OTTI, UNWTO
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13Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
Chinese Visitors to the U.S.
000s of visitors
16th
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1Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
China Spending in the U.S.
$ $ $ 2
$90
$1,2 $1,291
$9
$1, 2$1, 2
$1,1
$
$1,11
$1,
$2,0 1
$2, 99
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Millions of Dollars10th
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1Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
What is Known about China Outbound Travelto the U.S.?
Outbound to the U.S.: 397,000 visitors to the U.S. in 2007near doubling in six years.
Flat visitor volume from 1993 to 2003. 25% growth through November 2008, but slowing considerably.
U.S. share of Chinese outbound travel has declined for tworeasons:
Long-haul travel has declined as a share of total outbound U.S. share of long-haul had declined until four years ago. Share of long-haul
has increased.
Sources: Office of Travel & Tourism Industries (OTTI) & Global Insights Inc. Global Travel Navigator
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16Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
What is Known about China Outbound Travelto the U.S.?
Trip Characteristics: Port of Entry: San Francisco (21%), Chicago (17%), LA (17%), NYC (10%).
Destinations: concentrated in a few states (CA-57%, NY-32%, followed by: NV,DC, IL)
Main Purpose of Trip: Business -51%; Visiting Friends & Relatives (VFR) - 23%;Convention - 11%; & Leisure/vacation 9%.
Accommodations: 83% stay in hotels.
Stay length: mean average of 28 nights, but is influenced by a few staying fora very long period of time. Median is 11 nights.
Activities: Chinese are less active travelers than average travelers. OTTI tracks 25 Activities
Top activities 2007: Shopping (88%), Dining in Restaurants (80%), Sightseeing in Cities (51%), VisitHistorical Places (47%), Visit National Parks (29%), Visit Amusement/theme parks (28%) ..
Source: OTTI , Survey of International Air Travelers, 2007.
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17Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
What is Known about China Outbound Travelto the U.S.?
Trip Characteristics (continued): Gender: 70% male. Female proportion is increasing.
Age: Males41 mean / 39 median; Females36 mean / 35 median. Income: lower than most origin countries.
$63,900 (mean)
$36,700 (median)
Spending: highest spending per traveler of any country ($5,200 at destinations,
i.e., excluding airfares). High spending relative to income may reflect savingfor dream vacation and souvenir purchases made on behalf offriends/relatives.
Looking ahead:
Trip characteristics will likely change if group leisure increases.
Source: OTTI , Survey of International Air Travelers, 2007.
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18Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
U.S. China MOU on Group Leisure Travel
Under to U.S. law Chinese can visit so long as they receive avisa.
Under Chinese law, Chinese travel agencies can only sellpackaged leisure tours to Chinese to countries with whomthey have a bilateral agreement or ADS
In December 2007 U.S. China Tourism MOU Signed
MOU implemented in 2 phases Phase 1: July 2008 covers 9 provinces (over 70 % of the market)
Phase 2: U.S. is ready to implement when China agrees
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19Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
U.S. China MOU on Group Leisure TravelKey Provisions
China National Tourism Administration (CNTA) authorizedtravel agencies may work with tour operators who are
vetted by associations with programs approved by CNTA
U.S. travel destinations able to market their brand inChina
To date NTA is the only U.S. association with a program
In China the Government sets and monitors standards
In the US the industry sets and monitors standards.
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20Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
Supply Side Considerations
Liberalized restricted agreement (no open skies)
Non-stop current cap of 10 flights/day per side U.S. at cap (based on January non-stop OAG schedule.
China at half the cap level.
Thus, based on current caps, short-term growth in non-stop flights must
come from Chinese carriers. Long-term growth must come fromupward-adjusted caps.
57% of all traffic between China and U.S. (inbound+outbound) is non-stop. Non-stop is growing as a share of all traffic.
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21Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
Whos Flying Whom?
Traffic Mix: US Flag = 58%, & Foreign Flag = 42% of total air traffic
62% U.S. Citizens vs. 38% Non-Citizens
Chinese to the U.S.: 40% fly foreign flag carriers
60% of U.S. carriers
Americans to China: 57% fly U.S. carriers
43% of foreign flag carriers
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22Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
China Outbound Travel Study
Purpose: to develop a fuller understanding of the China outbound travelmarket in support of increasing tourism exports to the U.S.
Collaboration among: Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Travel & Tourism Industry Center, University South Carolina U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Travel & Tourism Industries (OTT) U.S. Travel Association Over 20 U.S. destination and travel-industry partners
Multi-phase comprehensive project: Qualitative and quantitative components Methods: Telephone / focus-group / in-depth interviews Surveys of long-haul travelers, U.S. visitors, Chinese government officials, Chinese travel
trade Focuses on Chinese long-haul travelers outside of Asia
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23Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
phone interviewsin China(n=1600)
in-person customerinterviews in the U.S.
(n=400)Phase 3
11 customer focusgroups in 11 Chinesecities (n=8/session)
governmentofficial interviews
(n=20)
travel tradeinterviews
(n=30)
telephone surveyin 11 Chinese cities
(n= 7,000)Phase 1
China Outbound Travel Study Phases and Elements
Phase 2
Secondary Source Review(Demographics,
Economics, Politics)
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2Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
Phase ITelephone SurveyMethodology
Purpose: gain better understanding of Chinese long-haul travelmarket
Potential of U.S. destinations and businesses Chinese views of the U.S.
Focus: on Chinese who Have traveled outside of China
Are at least somewhat likely to travel outside of China
Are at least somewhat likely to/interested in visiting the United States
Method: Telephone interview
7000 randomly selected Chinese adults, ages 18 and older from 11 urban areas
3 tier 1 cities; 8 tier 2 cities accounting for virtually all outbound travel
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2Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
Cities Surveyed3 Tier 1; 8 Tier II
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26Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
Outbound Travel
Low outbound travel incidence 8% 1+ leisure trips outside mainland China past 3 years
10% 1+ leisure trips outside Asia past 3 years
21% are at least somewhat likely to travel outside of Asia in the next two years
Most travel to nearby Asian countries U.S. top non-Asian country (9%)
Most visitations connected to Landmark/Sightseeing cities and cities with China towns
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27Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
Possible future travel
21% of Chinese at least somewhat likely to travel outside of China innext two years Most likely destinations are Asian
France ranked third (12%)
America ranked sixth (10%)
35% are at least somewhat Interested in traveling to America A significant amount would like to but are unlikely to travel to America
When asked to pick one dream destination America was number one Only two Asian countries made top ten
Difference between desire and perception of possible or likely
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28Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
Chinese attitudes
America is Dominant; Exciting; Successful
America isnt Friendly; Safe; Familiar
Want to come to America to Learning and Discovery
Experiencing a different culture
Seeing something new and different
Interests Seeing and experiencing something new and different important to Chinese tourist Sightseeing cities, landmarks, and tourist attractions scored high
Rest and relaxation--scored moderately high.
Interest in traditional vacations to resorts & beaches was low. Chinese tourist has adifferent ideas on rest & relaxation or how to facilitate it
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29Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
Dream DestinationsThe United States is the most frequently cited dream destinationfor Chinese citizens, followed by France.
(n=7,000)
United States 13%
France 10%
Australia 7%
Japan %
United Kingdom %
Canada %
Singapore %
The statue of Liberty is so famous
as a national symbol I would be
eager to see it. The USAs
advanced economy is anotherattraction for me, as I want to
experience this in-person.
Traveler, Xian
Hollywood in LA and Disneyland
such modern developments attract
me to the U.S. very much.
Traveler, Wuhan
Europe has a deep cultural
background and is full of historical
attractions. In addition, each
historical attraction has its own
style and this enables eachdifferent country in Europe to
present a different culture.
Traveler, Chongqing
You can go to see the glaciers
and national parks in Canada
such natural sceneries are the
most famous attractions ofCanada.
Traveler, Wuhan
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30Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
Activity Importance vs.U.S. Perception
35
34
34
32
27
28
28
28
31
31
31
37
38
44
Chinese communities
ma
towns/Countr side
Art a eries/ useums
Nationa parks
Cit sightseeing
Beach/Waterfront
Historic/Heritage sites
Extreme y Important (5)
U ffers a ot (5)
The performance by the native
Hawaiians was fantastic it
gave history and drama to us
tourists.
Traveler, Guangzhou
The buildings architecture in
NewY
ork was unique everybuilding had its own design andstructure.
Traveler, Wuhan
The most impressive sight I
saw is the Grand Canyon it is
really a miracle.
Traveler, Shenzhen
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31Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
Phase II Focus GroupsMethodology
Purpose: Qualitative assessment of views of the U.S. as a country and leisure destination
competing destinations destination choice process
marketing insights for U.S. business and destinations to promote travel exports
Method: 8 participants per group
4 previous leisure travelers to the U.S. (or business trip with leisure component) inpast 3 years
4 previous leisure travelers to other long-haul destinations (or business trip withleisure component) in past 3 years
One focus group in each of same 11 tier 1 and tier 2 cities from Phase I phone survey
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32Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
CommonT
hemes
Desire and affinity to experience the outdoors and natural wonders
Taking lots of pictures/ having ample time at sightseeing locations to takelots of pictures
Fear of violence in America/ wide spread gun owner ship
The need to have mandarin translations/ uncomfortable with not knowingwhat is said or is going on
The feeling that Americans are nice but do not respect them or believethey have money to spend and make our hospitality worth while
Mandarin Hotline to contact incase of emergency
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33Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
China Study PhaseIII
Traveler Segments
USA FocusHave visited the U.S. - 400 in person Interviews
China Traveler MarketPhone Interviews with 1,600 Identified Chinese Travelers
Outside AsiaHave traveled outside of Asia, but have not visited the U.S.
Within AsiaHave not traveled outside of Asia, but plan to (but not U.S.)
PotentialHave not traveled outside of Asia, but plan to (including the U.S.)
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3Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
China Study PhaseIII
Focus of Questions
Images of the U.S. as a Leisure Travel Destination
Atmosphere or Mood of US Expected to Experience Distinctive Tourist Cities & States in U.S.
Distinctive Tourist Attractions in the U.S.
Activity Participation & Comparison of US to others
Factors when deciding on a leisure destination, withcomparisons of the US to other destinations
Use of Media & MORE.
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3Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)
Some Additional Sources ofInformation on China
USTravel China Study Phases I III, see US Travel Website
U.S. Department of Commerce
Office of Travel & Tourism Industries www.tinet.ita.doc.gov Monthly Arrival Figures
Monthly Air Traffic Data to and from China
Annual Survey of Chinese Travelers to US & U.S. to China
Inbound Forecasts (2 per year) & Annual Spending Estimates U.S. Commercial Service Offices in China
See Website - http://trade.gov/cs/
Also Offering China Webinar February 18th - See OTTI TInews
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Heather HardwickVice PresidentMenlo Consulting
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Heather Hardwick
Specialty is marketinganalysis, strategicplanning, branding andproduct development
Strong expertise ineducational travel,adventure travel, grouptravel and cruising
Frequent speaker
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MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.
xamining the Outboundravel Market from China
Heather Hardwick
Vice President
Menlo Consulting Group
February 12, 2009
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MENLO ONSULTINGGROUP, INC.
China Market Overview
Most populous country in theworld
Worlds fourth largest economy
Worlds third largest country byarea
Key cities and gateways includeBeijing (1 M), Shanghai (17. M)and Guangzhou (10M)
Worlds #1 Internet users andmobile communications users
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MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.
Most populous nation and growing
1,
1, 7
1,134
981
1,
1, 3
900
1,000
1,100
1, 00
1,300
1,400
1980 1990 1995 2000 2006 2010p
Per
(ill
i
)
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators; Chinese State Population and Family Planning Commission
Populationof China
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MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.
Chinas Growing Middle Class
0
25
50
5
100
125
150
2005 200 2009 2011 2015
H
se
s
s)
Source: McKinsey Quarterly
Upper e C ass
HHI ~USD 5K-12.5K)
L wer e C ass
HHI ~USD 3K-5K)
N mber f C ese H se s e C ass
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MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.
GDP is expected to continue to grow,
albeit at a somewhat slower rate
8.6%8.5%
8.2%7.2%
6.0%
10.4%10.1%
11.1% 11.4%
9.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008p 2009p 2010p 2011p 2012p 2013pY
ear
verYearGrw
thRates(%)
Sources: China National Bureau of Statistics; The Economist
Actual and Projected China GDP Growth Rates
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MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.
Chinese outbound travel is booming
8. 9.210.
12.1
16.620.2
28.9
31.03 .
1.0
0
10
20
30
40
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200
Pes
s(milli
s)
Source: CNTA, compiled by Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA)
Outb u dt avel f mChi aa dH gK g
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MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.
Double digit growth has become the norm
12.3%
18.6%
11.3%
36. %
15.9%21.7%
42. %
7.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
earo
erYear%
Change
Sources: CNTA, PATA
Growthratesinoutboundtra elfrom ChinaandHongKong
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MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.
Chinas growing travel spending
21.
24.3
29.
19.1
13.913.115.4 15.2
0
10
20
30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
U
D(B
ons)
Internat ona Tour smExpend tures
Sources: UNWTO, China State Foreign Exchange Administration
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MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.
Most outbound travel is within Asia
Source: relevant NTOs, compiled by Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA)
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
2004 2006 2007
ra
elers
S ngapore
V e naT a land
Korea
Japan
Malays a
Aus ral a
USA
Top As a Pac f c des na ons for ra elers fro C na
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MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.
Chinese travel to North America is
taking off
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Tr
l
r
Arri l to North Am ric from Chin PRC
Source: Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA)
C n d
USA
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MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.
California has seen substantial
growth from China in recent years
S I T , O T T I .
Number of Visitors from China to CA, 1998-2007
(in 000s)
134149
120146
197
227
109
158
71101
0
100
200
300
400
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
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MENLOCONSULTINGGROUP, INC.
California is making a move in the
market
California opened an office in China in January 2009
All (100%) Chinese view a Chinese Web site as the mostimportant way for them to learn about California.
Only 1% Chinese consumers and a handful of tour
operators and media reps have been to California.Almost all Chinese know ofLos Angeles and San Francisco.They also have special ties to China as sister cities toGuangzhou and Shanghai. One-third recognize San Diego.
Motivations for visiting California include nature/parks,theme parks, and sunshine
Source: California Travel and Tourism Commission (CTTC)
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MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.
What drives Chinese tourists to
California?
Events/Activities Consumer Media Tour Operator
Theme Parks 2 1 1
National Parks & World Heritage 1 2 2
Shopping 3 3
Entertainment & Nightlife 6
Art & Culture 2
Wine & Food 6 3
Source: California Travel and Tourism Commission (CTTC)
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MENLOCONSULTINGGROUP, INC.
Outlook for China
Continuing, albeit slowed, economic growth
Growth in outbound travel is expected to continue
Increasing linkages to international destinations and
organizations
Competition for the Chinese traveler intensifying
With the MOU, and increased marketing in China,the USA stands to benefit from strong inbound traffic
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MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.
mmCCGGMENLO CONSULTING GROUP
PALO ALTO, CALIFORNIAwww.menloconsulting.com
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Frank HaasAssistant DeanUniversity ofHawaii
School of Travel IndustryManagement
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Frank Haas
Teaches courses inmarketing and ExecutiveDevelopment in TourismProgram
Undertaken planningprojects for tourism,government and non-profit corporations
Formerly VP MarketingHawaii Tourist Authority
0 million dollar budget
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The Chinese Travel Market:
Open CarefullyFrank Haas
University of Hawaii at Mnoa
School of Travel Industry Management
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In China Everything is possible
Nothing is easy
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In China
Negotiation starts
After the contract issigned
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Bottom Line
Huge potential but developing
the potential will take work
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Responsible Development
Hysteria or irrational exuberance
100 million outbound tourists by 2020
2 million outbound overnight trips in 2006 3 0%
increase since 1997 Reality
A significant and growing market, but
16.3 million of the 2 .3M travelled to Hong Kong or
Macau (6 %) 392.6 U.S. arrivals in 2007 projected to 78. in
2011 (rank = 20)
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Good News: Time for Orderly
Development
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Motivation for Hong Kong andMacau Travel
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What We Can Learn from theDevelopment of the Japan
Market in Hawaii
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To cover
Be prepared for culture shock
Learn from experience
The China market weve seen recentlyprobably isnt the market post MOA
Relationships matter
What weve seen with our 6,000 Chinesevisitors
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Historical Trends (arrivals)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
Th
ousands
Total Domestic International
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International Arrivals Percent
0
5
10
15
2025
30
35
40
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
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International Arrivals Percent
0
5
10
15
2025
30
35
40
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
Early 70s Hawaii
Gets Serious
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Chinese Arrivals in Hawaii
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
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Chinese Arrivals % of Total
0.00.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
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Opening a huge new marketmeans dealing with first time
travelers and first timeencounters with Western culture
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Culture Shock
P bl D i i W F d
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Problem: Destination Was Focusedon Domestic Visitors
Limited staff possessing multiple languageskills Japanese visitors were dependent on
Japanese speaking guides Confusion in accommodations
Hotel amenities werent culturallyappropriate; fixtures were foreign
Lack of appropriate experiences especially food
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Language Limitations
Visitors were dependent on their guides
Guides were often driven by commission
Result: visitors didnt always get an idealexperience and satisfaction suffered
Guided tours caused large groups to visitattractions, restaurants, etc. en masse,overwhelming capacity
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Confusion in Accommodations
As the Japan market developed, first timevisitors encountered strange/unexpectedfeatures and fixtures
How to work the plumbing?? Electricalappliances?? Call the front desk and no onespeaks Japanese
No green tea/teapots in the room No drains in the bathroom floor
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Lack of Appropriate Experiences
Japanese were consumers of masstourism as westerners were becomingmore independent
Japanese wanted quality Japanese food breakfast, lunch and dinner
No tipping
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Cultural Differences
Visitors carried large amounts of cash vulnerable to robberies and pursesnatchings
Prevalence of smoking
Golf
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The Retail Experience
What we were selling
What they wanted to buy
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Solutions Came with Critical
Mass
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The French Festival
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Chinese visitors so far havenot mimicked the early Japan
visitor
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Because of lack of ApprovedDestination Status and entry
restrictions
Chinese visitors to datehave been senior
government and businessofficials
Visitor Spending
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Visitor SpendingUS Per Person Per Day
US West 1 .90
US East 192.80
Japan 268.80
China 377.20
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Some Emerging Issues(2003 Hawaii Post Arrival Survey)
Chinese food (especially good Chinesefood) is a driver of satisfaction
Language barriers were linked to
perceived cultural discrimination Negatives
Service quality (knowledgeable in Chineseservice expectations)
Time constraints (guides pushing too manyactivities)
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If Chinese tourism booms there will be a change in
character as class goes to mass
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What We Think Well See
Shopping will include authentic luxury items and
Gifts and souvenirs for family and friends at
home and Vitamins, supplements and other safe products
Chinatowns and China connections are a draw
Need for acceptance of Chinese credit (ChinaUnion Pay)
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More Chinese speaking staff throughtraining or new hires HTA contract with the Community College
system Developing retail, food and beverage and
hotel amenities that appeal to the Chinese
Learn to manage diverse cultures in thevisitor mix
Political events pose a risk
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Over time, well see the market evolvefrom GIT PITFIT The market to Hawaii is about 30% FIT at the
moment, but that will change with volume Satisfaction may be sub-par until language
and product are aligned feeling ofcultural discrimination
Prepare for cultural differences i.e.tipping, smoking, group mentality
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Relationships Count
Titles and Official Status
Matter
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Understand that we havecompetition regional Asian
travel
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Mahalo Arigato Xie Xie
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