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    Barbara Bryant

    30 vet Asia/Pacific

    Co-Founder boutique rep firm ofBryant & Tripptree

    Firm appointed, PATARegional Director

    Former Director HongKong Tourism-LA

    Establish HK Film Dpt

    VP Sales/MarketingMandarin OrientalHotels

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    Slide: 3

    ATME EXECUTIVE CHINA THINK TANK

    Barbara Bryant, PATA North America Regional

    Director

    February 12-13, 2009

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    Ron ErdmannDeputy DirectorOffice of Travel & Tourism Industries

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    Ron Erdmann

    Admin international travelresearch

    Consults with clients onuse and application ofinformation

    Role is to create andimprove uponinternational marketing

    intelligence

    Prior nearly decade withU. S. Travel & Tourism

    Admin until closed

    Experienced indeveloping andpromoting rural tourism

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    6Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    China Research

    Presented by:

    Ron Erdmann

    Office of Travel and Tourism Industries

    International Trade Administration

    U.S. Department of Commerce

    February 2009

    Presented to:

    ATME:Think Tank

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    7Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    OTTI Resources on China

    Visitor volume to U.S. from China (monthly from I-94 form) U.S. resident travel to China (non-stop) (monthly) Other Data collected on DHS I-94 form (monthlyport, visa type, age of travelers,

    address in U.S., etc.)

    Visitor volume forecast (semi-annual)

    Visitor spending (annual) Visitor profile (annual) U.S. resident travel to China (annual) Chinese visitation to all countries (annual)

    China Outbound Study (one-time special study) China Travel Trade Barometer (quarterly planned)

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    8Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    The China Outbound Travel Market

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    9Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    China Outbound Travel

    25,

    0.9

    40,891.4

    5,64

    .2

    11,174.0

    ,151.4

    4,808.4

    1,216.2

    1,8

    4.7

    0

    10,000

    20,000

    30,000

    40,000

    1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007p 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f

    0

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    10,000Total Outbound Travel

    Total Long-haul Travel

    Data from China National Tourism Office and Global Insight Global Travel Navigator May 2008

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    10Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    China Outbound Trends(total outbound travelers)

    Destination 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f 06/01 11/06 11/01

    GRAND TOTAL 11,170 15,097 15,711 21,536 22,753 25,120 28,299 31,585 34,775 38,183 41,789 13,949 16,670 30,619

    Asia 9,34

    2,

    95

    3,52

    ,9

    4

    9,920 22,0

    24,9

    2

    ,929 30,

    4 33,

    3

    ,0

    9

    2,

    20

    4,953 2

    ,

    3

    Europe ,39

    ,9

    3 ,

    3 2,

    4 2,2

    0 2,3

    2,5

    2,

    50 3, 0

    3,395 3,

    9

    9 ,330 2,3 9

    North America 3

    9 322 234 304 3

    4

    5 50

    5

    25

    90

    45

    4

    2

    0 42

    Middle East 35 4

    54

    3 92

    2

    40

    5

    3

    93

    2

    5

    Latin America 32 33 32 4

    43 44 49 54 59

    4

    0

    2 25 3

    Africa 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 0 0 0

    Caribbean

    9

    0

    2

    3 0 5

    Hong Kong 4,449

    ,

    25

    ,4

    ,

    2,

    30

    3,

    5,

    39

    ,544

    9,3

    2

    ,324 23,349 9,3

    3 9,5

    ,900

    Macao

    ,309

    ,

    2

    ,43

    2,

    9

    2,3

    0 2,

    2

    2,9

    3,350 3,

    0

    4,0

    4,45

    ,3

    9

    ,

    3

    3,

    49

    Singapore 4

    0

    5

    0

    0

    5

    ,03

    ,

    9

    ,322

    ,449

    ,5

    5

    ,

    2

    5

    90

    ,2

    Thailand

    0

    9

    0

    9

    2 9

    4 993

    ,

    04

    ,222

    ,3

    ,524

    3

    0

    23

    Korea, Republic 4

    2 539 5

    3

    2

    0

    9

    ,0

    9

    ,

    3

    ,202

    ,29

    ,402 4

    5 505 920

    Japan 39

    452 449

    53

    2 90

    99

    ,0

    9

    ,

    ,295 42

    4

    4 904

    Vietnam 625 660 693

    53

    9

    3 9

    2 ,0

    ,

    3 ,295 66 504 670

    Italy 394 53

    4

    0 72

    725 75

    5

    97 977

    ,063

    ,

    57 365 399 763

    Russia 461 725 680 661 691 722 791 871 953 1,050 1,164 261 442 703

    Malaysia 453 558 351 550 352 439 504 560 614 671 732 -14 292 279

    Germany 237 270 268 293 313 327 358 395 430 468 509 90 181 272

    United States 232 226 157 203 270 320 353 394 433 479 516 88 195 283

    Australia 158 190 176 251 285 309 344 376 407 441 478 150 170 320

    Canada 87 96 76 102 117 145 155 174 192 210 229 58 84 142

    Sw itzerland 49 69 63 100 137 144 154 170 185 201 219 94 75 170

    Indonesia 32 37 41 51 112 117 134 149 164 179 195 85 78 163

    Belgium 62 113 107 114 109 114 122 134 146 159 173 52 60 111

    Netherlands 81 82 78 82 97 113 121 134 146 158 172 32 59 92

    United Kingdom 58 64 68 95 92 99 109 120 131 142 155 41 56 97

    Data from China National Tourism Office and Global Insight Global Travel Navigator May 2008

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    11Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    U.S. Market Share of Long-haul Travel

    U.S. Market Share o Long hau Travel

    17%16%

    13%14%

    13%

    9%7% 8%

    9% 10%12% 12% 12% 12% 12%

    12%12%12%12%12%12%13%12%14%

    16%16%18%18%

    21%22%

    1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007p 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f

    U.S. % share of long haul Long haul % share ofoutbound

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    12Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    What is Known about China Outbound Travel?Total Outbound

    25 million in 2006

    Only 12% to long-haul destinations; 70% to Hong Kong/Macau/Singapore. Strong growth across most top 20 destinations, especially Hong Kong,

    Macau, Korea, Italy, Australia.

    Tripling of travelers to Hong Kong from 2001-2006 (4.5M to 14M) Top long-haul destinations in 2006: Italy (807K), Russia (720K), Germany

    (442K), US (321K), & Australia (309K). Total travel to all long-haul destinations was 3.2 million in 2006, forecastto grow to 4.8 million by 2011.

    Sources: Global Insights Inc. Global Travel Navigator; OTTI, UNWTO

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    13Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    Chinese Visitors to the U.S.

    000s of visitors

    16th

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    1Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    China Spending in the U.S.

    $ $ $ 2

    $90

    $1,2 $1,291

    $9

    $1, 2$1, 2

    $1,1

    $

    $1,11

    $1,

    $2,0 1

    $2, 99

    $0

    $500

    $1,000

    $1,500

    $2,000

    $2,500

    $3,000

    93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

    Millions of Dollars10th

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    1Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    What is Known about China Outbound Travelto the U.S.?

    Outbound to the U.S.: 397,000 visitors to the U.S. in 2007near doubling in six years.

    Flat visitor volume from 1993 to 2003. 25% growth through November 2008, but slowing considerably.

    U.S. share of Chinese outbound travel has declined for tworeasons:

    Long-haul travel has declined as a share of total outbound U.S. share of long-haul had declined until four years ago. Share of long-haul

    has increased.

    Sources: Office of Travel & Tourism Industries (OTTI) & Global Insights Inc. Global Travel Navigator

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    16Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    What is Known about China Outbound Travelto the U.S.?

    Trip Characteristics: Port of Entry: San Francisco (21%), Chicago (17%), LA (17%), NYC (10%).

    Destinations: concentrated in a few states (CA-57%, NY-32%, followed by: NV,DC, IL)

    Main Purpose of Trip: Business -51%; Visiting Friends & Relatives (VFR) - 23%;Convention - 11%; & Leisure/vacation 9%.

    Accommodations: 83% stay in hotels.

    Stay length: mean average of 28 nights, but is influenced by a few staying fora very long period of time. Median is 11 nights.

    Activities: Chinese are less active travelers than average travelers. OTTI tracks 25 Activities

    Top activities 2007: Shopping (88%), Dining in Restaurants (80%), Sightseeing in Cities (51%), VisitHistorical Places (47%), Visit National Parks (29%), Visit Amusement/theme parks (28%) ..

    Source: OTTI , Survey of International Air Travelers, 2007.

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    17Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    What is Known about China Outbound Travelto the U.S.?

    Trip Characteristics (continued): Gender: 70% male. Female proportion is increasing.

    Age: Males41 mean / 39 median; Females36 mean / 35 median. Income: lower than most origin countries.

    $63,900 (mean)

    $36,700 (median)

    Spending: highest spending per traveler of any country ($5,200 at destinations,

    i.e., excluding airfares). High spending relative to income may reflect savingfor dream vacation and souvenir purchases made on behalf offriends/relatives.

    Looking ahead:

    Trip characteristics will likely change if group leisure increases.

    Source: OTTI , Survey of International Air Travelers, 2007.

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    18Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    U.S. China MOU on Group Leisure Travel

    Under to U.S. law Chinese can visit so long as they receive avisa.

    Under Chinese law, Chinese travel agencies can only sellpackaged leisure tours to Chinese to countries with whomthey have a bilateral agreement or ADS

    In December 2007 U.S. China Tourism MOU Signed

    MOU implemented in 2 phases Phase 1: July 2008 covers 9 provinces (over 70 % of the market)

    Phase 2: U.S. is ready to implement when China agrees

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    19Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    U.S. China MOU on Group Leisure TravelKey Provisions

    China National Tourism Administration (CNTA) authorizedtravel agencies may work with tour operators who are

    vetted by associations with programs approved by CNTA

    U.S. travel destinations able to market their brand inChina

    To date NTA is the only U.S. association with a program

    In China the Government sets and monitors standards

    In the US the industry sets and monitors standards.

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    20Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    Supply Side Considerations

    Liberalized restricted agreement (no open skies)

    Non-stop current cap of 10 flights/day per side U.S. at cap (based on January non-stop OAG schedule.

    China at half the cap level.

    Thus, based on current caps, short-term growth in non-stop flights must

    come from Chinese carriers. Long-term growth must come fromupward-adjusted caps.

    57% of all traffic between China and U.S. (inbound+outbound) is non-stop. Non-stop is growing as a share of all traffic.

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    21Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    Whos Flying Whom?

    Traffic Mix: US Flag = 58%, & Foreign Flag = 42% of total air traffic

    62% U.S. Citizens vs. 38% Non-Citizens

    Chinese to the U.S.: 40% fly foreign flag carriers

    60% of U.S. carriers

    Americans to China: 57% fly U.S. carriers

    43% of foreign flag carriers

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    22Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    China Outbound Travel Study

    Purpose: to develop a fuller understanding of the China outbound travelmarket in support of increasing tourism exports to the U.S.

    Collaboration among: Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Travel & Tourism Industry Center, University South Carolina U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Travel & Tourism Industries (OTT) U.S. Travel Association Over 20 U.S. destination and travel-industry partners

    Multi-phase comprehensive project: Qualitative and quantitative components Methods: Telephone / focus-group / in-depth interviews Surveys of long-haul travelers, U.S. visitors, Chinese government officials, Chinese travel

    trade Focuses on Chinese long-haul travelers outside of Asia

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    23Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    phone interviewsin China(n=1600)

    in-person customerinterviews in the U.S.

    (n=400)Phase 3

    11 customer focusgroups in 11 Chinesecities (n=8/session)

    governmentofficial interviews

    (n=20)

    travel tradeinterviews

    (n=30)

    telephone surveyin 11 Chinese cities

    (n= 7,000)Phase 1

    China Outbound Travel Study Phases and Elements

    Phase 2

    Secondary Source Review(Demographics,

    Economics, Politics)

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    2Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    Phase ITelephone SurveyMethodology

    Purpose: gain better understanding of Chinese long-haul travelmarket

    Potential of U.S. destinations and businesses Chinese views of the U.S.

    Focus: on Chinese who Have traveled outside of China

    Are at least somewhat likely to travel outside of China

    Are at least somewhat likely to/interested in visiting the United States

    Method: Telephone interview

    7000 randomly selected Chinese adults, ages 18 and older from 11 urban areas

    3 tier 1 cities; 8 tier 2 cities accounting for virtually all outbound travel

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    2Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    Cities Surveyed3 Tier 1; 8 Tier II

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    26Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    Outbound Travel

    Low outbound travel incidence 8% 1+ leisure trips outside mainland China past 3 years

    10% 1+ leisure trips outside Asia past 3 years

    21% are at least somewhat likely to travel outside of Asia in the next two years

    Most travel to nearby Asian countries U.S. top non-Asian country (9%)

    Most visitations connected to Landmark/Sightseeing cities and cities with China towns

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    27Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    Possible future travel

    21% of Chinese at least somewhat likely to travel outside of China innext two years Most likely destinations are Asian

    France ranked third (12%)

    America ranked sixth (10%)

    35% are at least somewhat Interested in traveling to America A significant amount would like to but are unlikely to travel to America

    When asked to pick one dream destination America was number one Only two Asian countries made top ten

    Difference between desire and perception of possible or likely

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    28Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    Chinese attitudes

    America is Dominant; Exciting; Successful

    America isnt Friendly; Safe; Familiar

    Want to come to America to Learning and Discovery

    Experiencing a different culture

    Seeing something new and different

    Interests Seeing and experiencing something new and different important to Chinese tourist Sightseeing cities, landmarks, and tourist attractions scored high

    Rest and relaxation--scored moderately high.

    Interest in traditional vacations to resorts & beaches was low. Chinese tourist has adifferent ideas on rest & relaxation or how to facilitate it

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    29Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    Dream DestinationsThe United States is the most frequently cited dream destinationfor Chinese citizens, followed by France.

    (n=7,000)

    United States 13%

    France 10%

    Australia 7%

    Japan %

    United Kingdom %

    Canada %

    Singapore %

    The statue of Liberty is so famous

    as a national symbol I would be

    eager to see it. The USAs

    advanced economy is anotherattraction for me, as I want to

    experience this in-person.

    Traveler, Xian

    Hollywood in LA and Disneyland

    such modern developments attract

    me to the U.S. very much.

    Traveler, Wuhan

    Europe has a deep cultural

    background and is full of historical

    attractions. In addition, each

    historical attraction has its own

    style and this enables eachdifferent country in Europe to

    present a different culture.

    Traveler, Chongqing

    You can go to see the glaciers

    and national parks in Canada

    such natural sceneries are the

    most famous attractions ofCanada.

    Traveler, Wuhan

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    30Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    Activity Importance vs.U.S. Perception

    35

    34

    34

    32

    27

    28

    28

    28

    31

    31

    31

    37

    38

    44

    Chinese communities

    ma

    towns/Countr side

    Art a eries/ useums

    Nationa parks

    Cit sightseeing

    Beach/Waterfront

    Historic/Heritage sites

    Extreme y Important (5)

    U ffers a ot (5)

    The performance by the native

    Hawaiians was fantastic it

    gave history and drama to us

    tourists.

    Traveler, Guangzhou

    The buildings architecture in

    NewY

    ork was unique everybuilding had its own design andstructure.

    Traveler, Wuhan

    The most impressive sight I

    saw is the Grand Canyon it is

    really a miracle.

    Traveler, Shenzhen

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    31Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    Phase II Focus GroupsMethodology

    Purpose: Qualitative assessment of views of the U.S. as a country and leisure destination

    competing destinations destination choice process

    marketing insights for U.S. business and destinations to promote travel exports

    Method: 8 participants per group

    4 previous leisure travelers to the U.S. (or business trip with leisure component) inpast 3 years

    4 previous leisure travelers to other long-haul destinations (or business trip withleisure component) in past 3 years

    One focus group in each of same 11 tier 1 and tier 2 cities from Phase I phone survey

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    32Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    CommonT

    hemes

    Desire and affinity to experience the outdoors and natural wonders

    Taking lots of pictures/ having ample time at sightseeing locations to takelots of pictures

    Fear of violence in America/ wide spread gun owner ship

    The need to have mandarin translations/ uncomfortable with not knowingwhat is said or is going on

    The feeling that Americans are nice but do not respect them or believethey have money to spend and make our hospitality worth while

    Mandarin Hotline to contact incase of emergency

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    33Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    China Study PhaseIII

    Traveler Segments

    USA FocusHave visited the U.S. - 400 in person Interviews

    China Traveler MarketPhone Interviews with 1,600 Identified Chinese Travelers

    Outside AsiaHave traveled outside of Asia, but have not visited the U.S.

    Within AsiaHave not traveled outside of Asia, but plan to (but not U.S.)

    PotentialHave not traveled outside of Asia, but plan to (including the U.S.)

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    3Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    China Study PhaseIII

    Focus of Questions

    Images of the U.S. as a Leisure Travel Destination

    Atmosphere or Mood of US Expected to Experience Distinctive Tourist Cities & States in U.S.

    Distinctive Tourist Attractions in the U.S.

    Activity Participation & Comparison of US to others

    Factors when deciding on a leisure destination, withcomparisons of the US to other destinations

    Use of Media & MORE.

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    3Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

    Some Additional Sources ofInformation on China

    USTravel China Study Phases I III, see US Travel Website

    U.S. Department of Commerce

    Office of Travel & Tourism Industries www.tinet.ita.doc.gov Monthly Arrival Figures

    Monthly Air Traffic Data to and from China

    Annual Survey of Chinese Travelers to US & U.S. to China

    Inbound Forecasts (2 per year) & Annual Spending Estimates U.S. Commercial Service Offices in China

    See Website - http://trade.gov/cs/

    Also Offering China Webinar February 18th - See OTTI TInews

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    Heather HardwickVice PresidentMenlo Consulting

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    Heather Hardwick

    Specialty is marketinganalysis, strategicplanning, branding andproduct development

    Strong expertise ineducational travel,adventure travel, grouptravel and cruising

    Frequent speaker

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    MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

    xamining the Outboundravel Market from China

    Heather Hardwick

    Vice President

    Menlo Consulting Group

    February 12, 2009

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    MENLO ONSULTINGGROUP, INC.

    China Market Overview

    Most populous country in theworld

    Worlds fourth largest economy

    Worlds third largest country byarea

    Key cities and gateways includeBeijing (1 M), Shanghai (17. M)and Guangzhou (10M)

    Worlds #1 Internet users andmobile communications users

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    MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

    Most populous nation and growing

    1,

    1, 7

    1,134

    981

    1,

    1, 3

    900

    1,000

    1,100

    1, 00

    1,300

    1,400

    1980 1990 1995 2000 2006 2010p

    Per

    (ill

    i

    )

    Source: World Bank World Development Indicators; Chinese State Population and Family Planning Commission

    Populationof China

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    MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

    Chinas Growing Middle Class

    0

    25

    50

    5

    100

    125

    150

    2005 200 2009 2011 2015

    H

    se

    s

    s)

    Source: McKinsey Quarterly

    Upper e C ass

    HHI ~USD 5K-12.5K)

    L wer e C ass

    HHI ~USD 3K-5K)

    N mber f C ese H se s e C ass

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    MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

    GDP is expected to continue to grow,

    albeit at a somewhat slower rate

    8.6%8.5%

    8.2%7.2%

    6.0%

    10.4%10.1%

    11.1% 11.4%

    9.1%

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008p 2009p 2010p 2011p 2012p 2013pY

    ear

    verYearGrw

    thRates(%)

    Sources: China National Bureau of Statistics; The Economist

    Actual and Projected China GDP Growth Rates

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    MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

    Chinese outbound travel is booming

    8. 9.210.

    12.1

    16.620.2

    28.9

    31.03 .

    1.0

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200

    Pes

    s(milli

    s)

    Source: CNTA, compiled by Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA)

    Outb u dt avel f mChi aa dH gK g

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    MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

    Double digit growth has become the norm

    12.3%

    18.6%

    11.3%

    36. %

    15.9%21.7%

    42. %

    7.5%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

    earo

    erYear%

    Change

    Sources: CNTA, PATA

    Growthratesinoutboundtra elfrom ChinaandHongKong

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    MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

    Chinas growing travel spending

    21.

    24.3

    29.

    19.1

    13.913.115.4 15.2

    0

    10

    20

    30

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

    U

    D(B

    ons)

    Internat ona Tour smExpend tures

    Sources: UNWTO, China State Foreign Exchange Administration

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    MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

    Most outbound travel is within Asia

    Source: relevant NTOs, compiled by Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA)

    0

    200,000

    400,000

    600,000

    800,000

    1,000,000

    1,200,000

    2004 2006 2007

    ra

    elers

    S ngapore

    V e naT a land

    Korea

    Japan

    Malays a

    Aus ral a

    USA

    Top As a Pac f c des na ons for ra elers fro C na

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    MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

    Chinese travel to North America is

    taking off

    0

    100,000

    200,000

    300,000

    400,000

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    Tr

    l

    r

    Arri l to North Am ric from Chin PRC

    Source: Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA)

    C n d

    USA

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    MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

    California has seen substantial

    growth from China in recent years

    S I T , O T T I .

    Number of Visitors from China to CA, 1998-2007

    (in 000s)

    134149

    120146

    197

    227

    109

    158

    71101

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

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    MENLOCONSULTINGGROUP, INC.

    California is making a move in the

    market

    California opened an office in China in January 2009

    All (100%) Chinese view a Chinese Web site as the mostimportant way for them to learn about California.

    Only 1% Chinese consumers and a handful of tour

    operators and media reps have been to California.Almost all Chinese know ofLos Angeles and San Francisco.They also have special ties to China as sister cities toGuangzhou and Shanghai. One-third recognize San Diego.

    Motivations for visiting California include nature/parks,theme parks, and sunshine

    Source: California Travel and Tourism Commission (CTTC)

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    MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

    What drives Chinese tourists to

    California?

    Events/Activities Consumer Media Tour Operator

    Theme Parks 2 1 1

    National Parks & World Heritage 1 2 2

    Shopping 3 3

    Entertainment & Nightlife 6

    Art & Culture 2

    Wine & Food 6 3

    Source: California Travel and Tourism Commission (CTTC)

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    MENLOCONSULTINGGROUP, INC.

    Outlook for China

    Continuing, albeit slowed, economic growth

    Growth in outbound travel is expected to continue

    Increasing linkages to international destinations and

    organizations

    Competition for the Chinese traveler intensifying

    With the MOU, and increased marketing in China,the USA stands to benefit from strong inbound traffic

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    MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

    mmCCGGMENLO CONSULTING GROUP

    PALO ALTO, CALIFORNIAwww.menloconsulting.com

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    Frank HaasAssistant DeanUniversity ofHawaii

    School of Travel IndustryManagement

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    Frank Haas

    Teaches courses inmarketing and ExecutiveDevelopment in TourismProgram

    Undertaken planningprojects for tourism,government and non-profit corporations

    Formerly VP MarketingHawaii Tourist Authority

    0 million dollar budget

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    The Chinese Travel Market:

    Open CarefullyFrank Haas

    University of Hawaii at Mnoa

    School of Travel Industry Management

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    In China Everything is possible

    Nothing is easy

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    In China

    Negotiation starts

    After the contract issigned

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    Bottom Line

    Huge potential but developing

    the potential will take work

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    Responsible Development

    Hysteria or irrational exuberance

    100 million outbound tourists by 2020

    2 million outbound overnight trips in 2006 3 0%

    increase since 1997 Reality

    A significant and growing market, but

    16.3 million of the 2 .3M travelled to Hong Kong or

    Macau (6 %) 392.6 U.S. arrivals in 2007 projected to 78. in

    2011 (rank = 20)

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    Good News: Time for Orderly

    Development

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    Motivation for Hong Kong andMacau Travel

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    What We Can Learn from theDevelopment of the Japan

    Market in Hawaii

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    To cover

    Be prepared for culture shock

    Learn from experience

    The China market weve seen recentlyprobably isnt the market post MOA

    Relationships matter

    What weve seen with our 6,000 Chinesevisitors

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    Historical Trends (arrivals)

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    7,000

    1951

    1953

    1955

    1957

    1959

    1961

    1963

    1965

    1967

    1969

    1971

    1973

    1975

    1977

    1979

    1981

    1983

    1985

    1987

    1989

    Th

    ousands

    Total Domestic International

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    International Arrivals Percent

    0

    5

    10

    15

    2025

    30

    35

    40

    1951

    1954

    1957

    1960

    1963

    1966

    1969

    1972

    1975

    1978

    1981

    1984

    1987

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    International Arrivals Percent

    0

    5

    10

    15

    2025

    30

    35

    40

    1951

    1954

    1957

    1960

    1963

    1966

    1969

    1972

    1975

    1978

    1981

    1984

    1987

    Early 70s Hawaii

    Gets Serious

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    Chinese Arrivals in Hawaii

    0

    10,000

    20,000

    30,000

    40,000

    50,000

    60,000

    1989

    1990

    1991

    1992

    1993

    1994

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

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    Chinese Arrivals % of Total

    0.00.1

    0.2

    0.3

    0.4

    0.5

    0.6

    0.7

    0.8

    0.9

    1989

    1991

    1993

    1995

    1997

    1999

    2001

    2003

    2005

    2007

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    Opening a huge new marketmeans dealing with first time

    travelers and first timeencounters with Western culture

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    Culture Shock

    P bl D i i W F d

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    Problem: Destination Was Focusedon Domestic Visitors

    Limited staff possessing multiple languageskills Japanese visitors were dependent on

    Japanese speaking guides Confusion in accommodations

    Hotel amenities werent culturallyappropriate; fixtures were foreign

    Lack of appropriate experiences especially food

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    Language Limitations

    Visitors were dependent on their guides

    Guides were often driven by commission

    Result: visitors didnt always get an idealexperience and satisfaction suffered

    Guided tours caused large groups to visitattractions, restaurants, etc. en masse,overwhelming capacity

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    Confusion in Accommodations

    As the Japan market developed, first timevisitors encountered strange/unexpectedfeatures and fixtures

    How to work the plumbing?? Electricalappliances?? Call the front desk and no onespeaks Japanese

    No green tea/teapots in the room No drains in the bathroom floor

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    Lack of Appropriate Experiences

    Japanese were consumers of masstourism as westerners were becomingmore independent

    Japanese wanted quality Japanese food breakfast, lunch and dinner

    No tipping

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    Cultural Differences

    Visitors carried large amounts of cash vulnerable to robberies and pursesnatchings

    Prevalence of smoking

    Golf

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    The Retail Experience

    What we were selling

    What they wanted to buy

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    Solutions Came with Critical

    Mass

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    The French Festival

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    Chinese visitors so far havenot mimicked the early Japan

    visitor

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    Because of lack of ApprovedDestination Status and entry

    restrictions

    Chinese visitors to datehave been senior

    government and businessofficials

    Visitor Spending

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    Visitor SpendingUS Per Person Per Day

    US West 1 .90

    US East 192.80

    Japan 268.80

    China 377.20

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    Some Emerging Issues(2003 Hawaii Post Arrival Survey)

    Chinese food (especially good Chinesefood) is a driver of satisfaction

    Language barriers were linked to

    perceived cultural discrimination Negatives

    Service quality (knowledgeable in Chineseservice expectations)

    Time constraints (guides pushing too manyactivities)

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    If Chinese tourism booms there will be a change in

    character as class goes to mass

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    What We Think Well See

    Shopping will include authentic luxury items and

    Gifts and souvenirs for family and friends at

    home and Vitamins, supplements and other safe products

    Chinatowns and China connections are a draw

    Need for acceptance of Chinese credit (ChinaUnion Pay)

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    More Chinese speaking staff throughtraining or new hires HTA contract with the Community College

    system Developing retail, food and beverage and

    hotel amenities that appeal to the Chinese

    Learn to manage diverse cultures in thevisitor mix

    Political events pose a risk

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    Over time, well see the market evolvefrom GIT PITFIT The market to Hawaii is about 30% FIT at the

    moment, but that will change with volume Satisfaction may be sub-par until language

    and product are aligned feeling ofcultural discrimination

    Prepare for cultural differences i.e.tipping, smoking, group mentality

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    Relationships Count

    Titles and Official Status

    Matter

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    Understand that we havecompetition regional Asian

    travel

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    Mahalo Arigato Xie Xie

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