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ESCUELA POLITECNICA NACIONALDepartamento de Energía Eléctrica
SEMINARIO SOBRE BALANCE DE ENERGIA Y EFICIENCIA ENERGETICA
Ing. Marcelo Jaramillo C.Marzo 2011
BALANCE ENERGETICO
OBJETIVO DEL SEMINARIO:CONCEPTOS GENERALES:DEFINICION DE ENERGIACONCEPTO DE FUENTES Y USOS DE ENERGIAFUENTES: CLASIFICACION, CARACTERISTICASUSOS: CLASIFICACIONBALANCE ENERGETICO: CONCEPTO, EJEMPLOSEFICIENCIA ENERGETICA
BALANCE ENERGETICO Vs MATRIZ ENERGETICA
• BALANCE ENERGETICO: Contabilización de la Oferta y la Demanda de energía y sus procesos, en un sitio y periodo definidos.
• MATRIZ ENERGETICA: Cuantifica la interrelación entre Oferta energética, su inventario, sus procesos de transformación y la Demanda, detallando su evolución
APLICACIONES
Definir Inventarios, tasa de aplicación y usos
Priorizar aplicación de recursos según su naturaleza
Optimizar el uso de energéticos
Optimizar los procesos de Transformación
Optimizar los procesos de uso
Propender a la EFICIENCIA ENERGETICA
ANTECEDENTES
• Incremento de la población
• Industrialización y Desarrollo
• Consumo de energéticos no-renovables
• Contaminación Ambiental
Clasificación de ENERGIAS
• ENERGIA PRIMARIA• PROCESOS ENERGETICOS (ENERGIA EN
PROCESO):• ENERGIA SECUNDARIA• ENERGIA FINAL• ENERGIA UTIL• EFICIENCIA ENERGETICA
PLANTEAMIENTO
• DEFINIR LAS FUENTES DE ENERGIA Y SUS CARACTERISTICAS EN RELACION CON LAS NECESIDADES DE LA DEMANDA
• IDENTIFICAR LOS PRINCIPIOS FISICOS APLICABLES A LA GENERACION Y TRANSFORMACION DE LA ENERGIA
Crecimiento PoblacionalDESAFIO, OPORTUNIDADES,COMPETENCIA
Diez problemas principales de la Humanidad en los próximos 50 años
1. ENERGIA2. AGUA3. ALIMENTACION4. MEDIO AMBIENTE 5. POBREZA6. TERRORISMO Y GUERRA7. EPIDEMIAS8. EDUCACION9. DEMOCRACIA10. POBLACION
2003 6.5 Billion People2050 8-10 Billion People
0,1
1
10
100
0,1 1 10 100 1000
Energy Consumption Per Capita ('000 BTU/person)
GD
P P
er
Cap
ita (
$000/p
ers
on
)
APLICACION DE LA ENERGIA Y EN PIB:Correlación Marcada
Poverty
Affluence
Burkina Faso
United Kingdom
Mexico
Bangladesh
China
Poland
South Korea
UnitedStates.
France
Japan
El Salvador Russia
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2000 Tables E1, B1, B2; Gross Domestic Product per capita is for 2000 in 1995 dollars. Updated May 2002
PLANTEAMIENTO
• DEFINIR LAS FUENTES DE ENERGIA Y SUS CARACTERISTICAS EN RELACION CON LAS NECESIDADES DE LA DEMANDA
• IDENTIFICAR LOS PRINCIPIOS FISICOS APLICABLES A LA GENERACION Y TRANSFORMACION DE LA ENERGIA
ENERGIAS CONVENCIONALES
• ENERGIA PRIMARIA• PROCESOS ENERGETICOS (ENERGIA EN
PROCESO):• ENERGIA SECUNDARIA• ENERGIA FINAL• ENERGIA UTIL• EFICIENCIA ENERGETICA
Diez problemas principales de la Humanidad en los próximos 50 años
1. ENERGIA2. AGUA3. ALIMENTACION4. MEDIO AMBIENTE 5. POBREZA6. TERRORISMO Y GUERRA7. EPIDEMIAS8. EDUCACION9. DEMOCRACIA10. POBLACION
2003 6.5 Billion People2050 8-10 Billion People
0,1
1
10
100
0,1 1 10 100 1000
Energy Consumption Per Capita ('000 BTU/person)
GD
P P
er
Cap
ita (
$000/p
ers
on
)
APLICACION DE LA ENERGIA Y EN PIB:Correlación Marcada
Poverty
Affluence
Burkina Faso
United Kingdom
Mexico
Bangladesh
China
Poland
South Korea
UnitedStates.
France
Japan
El Salvador Russia
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2000 Tables E1, B1, B2; Gross Domestic Product per capita is for 2000 in 1995 dollars. Updated May 2002
Renewable EnergySolar
1.2 x 105 TW at Earth surface
600 TW practical Biomass5-7 TW gross
all cultivatable land not used
for food
Hydroelectric
Geothermal
Wind2-4 TW extractable
4.6 TW gross1.6 TW technically feasible0.9 TW economically feasible0.6 TW installed capacity12 TW gross over land
small fraction recoverable
Tide/Ocean Currents 2 TW gross
energy gap~ 14 TW by 2050~ 33 TW by 2100
Número 19
PRINCIPALES USUARIOS DE ENERGÉTICOS
• Calderos de vapor• Calentadores de agua• Calentadores de fluido térmico• Alto hornos• Incineradores• Hornos • Calentamiento de fluidos• Calentadores de ambiente• Generadores
Número 20
USUARIOS MAS IMPORTANTES DE ELECTRICIDAD
• Iluminación• Alto hornos/hornos• Aire acondicionado / calentamiento de áreas• Compresoras de aire• Compresoras de refrigeración• Bombas de proceso /bombas de agua• Sistema de ventilación / ventiladoras• Maquinaria de producción: Fuerza motriz,
Calentamiento• Bombas de vacío. • Bombas hidráulicas. • Agitadores • Fluidos de calentamiento
Expositor : Dr.Ing. Johnny Nahui Ortiz
kWh / ton
Consumo
Unidad Producida
Galones / kg
Energía Primaria
Energía Secundaria
Energía Final
Energía Util
Sistema
Energético
?Pérdidas Energéticas
m3 / unidad
LA INTENSIDAD ENERGÉTICA
ELECTRICIDAD
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
IM-PORTACION
1992.949483537
77
1254.996772111
04
941.2475790832
78
627.4983860555
2
313.7491930277
6
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HIDRAULICAS
7124.922530664
97
9595.564880568
1
11225.04599741
77
13383.52969657
84
14680.76420271
15
14748.21497740
48
21969.63040671
4
21969.63040671
4
21969.63040671
4
21969.63040671
4
21969.63040671
4
21969.63040671
4
27310.25903808
9
27310.25903808
9
27310.25903808
9
27310.25903808
9
27310.25903808
9
27310.25903808
9
TER-MI-CAS
4712.953518398
97
4712.953518398
97
4713.071336346
01
4713.071336346
01
4778.283570045
19
4706.178986442
87
4251.048256939
96
3512.270819883
8
3512.270819883
8
3647.643641058
74
3647.643641058
74
3647.643641058
74
3647.643641058
74
3647.643641058
74
3647.643641058
74
3647.643641058
74
3647.643641058
74
3647.643641058
74
CEN-TRAL A GAS
1278.560361523
56
1628.067301484
83
2513.645900581
02
2412.322466107
17
4400.853776630
08
4385.007262750
16
4439.615881213
7
4439.615881213
7
4439.615881213
7
4439.615881213
7
4439.615881213
7
4439.615881213
7
4439.615881213
7
4439.615881213
7
4439.615881213
7
4439.615881213
7
4439.615881213
7
4439.615881213
7
GEOTER-MICA
0 0 0 0 0 105.0346998063
27
105.0346998063
27
105.0346998063
27
420.1387992253
07
420.1387992253
07
420.1387992253
07
2804.538411878
63
2804.538411878
63
2804.538411878
63
2804.538411878
63
2804.538411878
63
2804.538411878
63
2804.538411878
63
BIOMASA
103.9154293092
32
116.3452227243
39
125.1815687540
35
134.6659134925
76
144.9160748870
24
155.9320529373
79
167.7727566171
72
180.5560038734
67
194.2228857327
31
209.0090380890
9
224.9144609425
44
241.9980632666
24
260.3776630083
93
280.1710781149
13
301.4372175597
16
324.3528082633
97
349.0356681730
15
375.5447062621
04
EOLI-CAS
34.99193027759
85
53.54825693996
13
72.10458360232
41
90.60200129115
56
109.1583279535
18
127.7146546158
81
146.2120723047
12
164.7683989670
76
183.3247256294
38
201.8221433182
71
220.3784699806
34
238.9347966429
96
257.4322143318
27
275.9885409941
88
294.5448676565
54
313.0422853453
84
331.5986120077
47
350.1549386701
1
SO-LARES
16.78905745642
35
26.09667527437
05
35.40429309231
74
44.71191091026
47
54.01952872821
18
63.32714654615
89
72.63476436410
59
81.94238218205
25
91.30890897353
08
100.6165267914
78
109.9241446094
26
119.2317624273
73
128.5393802453
2
137.8469980632
67
147.1546158812
14
156.4622336991
61
165.7698515171
07
175.0774693350
55
2,500
7,500
12,500
17,500
22,500
27,500
32,500
37,500
42,500 OFERTA DE ELECTRICIDAD, GWh
2,008 2,009 2,010 2,011 2,012 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,016 2,017 2,018 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025
PER-DIDAS TRANSM
412.9519044544
86
426.4420593931
57
456.6034538411
87
490.8884764364
11
529.0614912846
99
571.3581342801
81
606.6446094254
33
644.6998063266
67
282.7630729502
88
316.4590058102
358.6967398321
49
402.6428340865
08
454.0703679793
42
507.6186249193
03
564.7603292446
74
625.7311168495
8
690.8844415752
1
760.3970303421
57
PER-DIDAS DIS-TRIB
3252.600064557
78
2530.493867010
98
2344.636055519
69
2233.298095545
51
2184.285829567
46
2206.082149774
05
2244.785345384
12
2303.340865074
24
2385.224338282
76
2131.680116204
01
2060.459167204
65
1945.704486765
66
1966.263718528
08
1984.466591349
27
2003.435280826
34
2023.110877985
8
2043.552291801
16
2064.700613298
9
DIFEREN-CIAS
185.8578114912
85
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CON-SUMO PRO-PIO
566.1152356358
94
595.0984506132
99
629.5012911555
83
665.9659457714
65
704.6691413815
36
745.6697869593
31
789.2035183989
67
835.3881536475
15
884.4004196255
64
936.4170432537
12
991.6147514525
51
1050.229180116
2
1112.495965138
8
1178.591833440
93
1248.811329890
25
1323.390090380
89
1402.622659780
51
1486.803582956
75
TRANSPORTE
10.25016139444
8
16.37669464170
43
23.50468043899
29
31.16284699806
32
39.52792123950
94
46.06681730148
48
53.13589412524
2
60.73515171078
13
68.92349903163
33
77.70093608779
86
87.12637185280
76
97.25871530019
36
108.1568754034
86
119.8208521626
85
132.2506455777
92
145.6229825694
159.9378631375
08
175.1952872821
17
IN-DUS-TRIA
3199.758715300
19
3521.224983860
56
3724.637669464
16
3938.595061329
89
4163.568431245
97
4400.029051000
65
4648.330374435
12
4908.943673337
64
5182.399128470
01
5468.991284699
83
5769.250322788
9
6083.588605551
99
6412.359586830
21
6899.713524854
76
7424.062298256
98
7988.292446739
83
8595.408327953
48
9248.649935442
22
RESI-DEN-CIAL
4010.464009038
09
4261.828599096
21
4498.230309877
34
4748.181084570
71
5012.446739832
15
5291.969819238
22
5587.516139444
83
5900.087153001
94
6230.743221433
2
6580.544706262
1
6950.610877985
8
7342.178825048
42
7756.485635894
12
8194.945125887
62
8658.971110393
76
9150.095222724
33
9670.025823111
68
10220.35345384
12
COM-ER-CIAL PUB-LICO
2860.148482892
19
3229.861200774
69
3543.963847643
64
3886.224983860
56
4259.059877340
2
4665.060522918
01
5106.995642349
9
5587.928502259
52
6111.216914138
15
6680.336507424
15
7299.234183344
07
7971.974661071
68
8703.211749515
86
9312.448353776
63
9964.276145900
58
10661.81730148
48
11408.13508715
3
12206.70513234
34
CON-STRUCCION
766.9948353776
68
818.3045513234
33
866.6099096191
1
917.6839896707
59
971.8802453195
61
1029.198676565
53
1089.933828276
3
1154.203518398
97
1222.302291801
16
1294.465784377
02
1370.811814073
6
1451.693834732
08
1537.347482246
61
1628.067301484
83
1724.088928340
86
1825.824725629
44
1933.569238218
2
2047.617010974
82
REEMPLAZO LPG Y EX-PORT
0 1988.001129761
14
3538.014041316
98
4494.460135571
36
6617.244996772
11
5336.033731439
64
11025.46239509
36
9058.432859909
62
8442.598450613
3
7501.881052291
8
6144.323757262
75
7116.145093608
78
10798.07375726
28
9070.509199483
46
7224.537604906
39
5252.088444157
53
3144.443189154
3
892.4120400258
25
2,500
7,500
12,500
17,500
22,500
27,500
32,500
37,500
42,500
USOS DE ELECTRICIDAD, GWh
AñoBajo Medio Alto
2007 15505 15639 158012008 16195 16486 168172009 16886 17348 178622010 17588 18228 189342011 18294 19132 200492012 19007 20064 212082013 19738 21026 224182014 20473 22020 236812015 21221 23047 249982016 21987 24108 263702017 22768 25201 277952018 23588 26335 292962019 24437 27520 308782020 25317 28759 32545
Escenarios de Crecimiento de la Demanda Estudio de Proyección de la Demanda - Agosto 2007
Demanda de Energía (GWh) en Bornes de Generador
2,008 2,009 2,010 2,011 2,012 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,016 2,017 2,018 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025
PRODUCCION
527981.0753105
56
486521.0597826
09
470289.8874223
6
557825.0194099
38
559979.2313664
59
552159.1614906
83
529255.7259316
77
508965.5473602
47
499778.0473602
47
475991.4596273
3
455425.1746894
41
449647.1273291
93
467842.9736024
86
452067.7406832
3
438166.6343167
71
427482.4340062
12
413781.4440993
79
391537.7523291
93
IM-PORTACION
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 48285.32608695
65
68837.05357142
83
74757.56987577
61
56457.88043478
26
72448.85481366
46
86578.99844720
5
97506.40527950
27
111465.9355590
06
133984.1809006
21
STOCK
-2482.336956521
74
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
50,000
150,000
250,000
350,000
450,000
550,000
OFERTAD DE CRUDO, BPD
2,008 2,009 2,010 2,011 2,012 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,016 2,017 2,018 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025
A OLEODUC-TOS
1549.592391304
35
1485.927795031
06
1487.092391304
35
1640.625
1639.460403726
71
1640.819099378
88
4668.769409937
89
4670.225155279
5
4194.875776397
51
3968.847049689
44
3774.165372670
82
3725.349378882
3418.478260869
57
3418.478260869
57
3418.478260869
57
3418.478260869
57
3418.478260869
57
3418.478260869
57
Refin-ería Es-mer-aldas
92317.93478260
87
92317.93478260
87
92317.93478260
87
104828.9984472
05
104828.9984472
05
104828.9984472
05
104828.9984472
05
104828.9984472
05
104828.9984472
05
104828.9984472
05
104828.9984472
05
104828.9984472
05
104828.9984472
05
104828.9984472
05
104828.9984472
05
104828.9984472
05
104828.9984472
05
104828.9984472
05
Refin-ería La Liber-tad
39131.01708074
53
39131.01708074
53
39131.01708074
53
39131.01708074
53
38886.45186335
4
38886.45186335
4
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Refin-ería Ama-zonas
16753.49378881
99
16753.49378881
99
16753.49378881
99
19639.26630434
78
19639.26630434
78
19639.26630434
78
19639.26630434
78
19639.26630434
78
19639.26630434
78
19639.26630434
78
19639.26630434
78
19639.26630434
78
19639.26630434
78
19639.26630434
78
19639.26630434
78
19639.26630434
78
19639.26630434
78
19639.26630434
78
Planta Shushufindi
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Refin-ería del Pun-garayacu
0 0 0 0 0 0 50100.05822981
37
50100.05822981
37
50100.05822981
37
98196.13742236
04
98196.13742236
04
98196.13742236
04
98196.13742236
04
98196.13742236
04
98196.13742236
04
98196.13742236
04
98196.13742236
04
98196.13742236
04
Refin-ería el Pací-fico
0 0 0 0 0 0 294588.5093167
72
294588.5093167
72
294588.5093167
72
294588.5093167
72
294588.5093167
72
294588.5093167
72
294588.5093167
72
294588.5093167
72
294588.5093167
72
294588.5093167
72
294588.5093167
72
294588.5093167
72
Con-sumo Pro-pio
5887.325310559
03
1941.576086956
52
2053.668478260
86
2172.651397515
55
2298.815993788
82
2432.647515527
95
2574.631211180
13
2725.349378882
2885.190217391
31
3054.930124223
6
3235.054347826
09
3426.339285714
29
3629.464285714
27
3845.108695652
16
4074.145962732
92
4317.449534161
51
4575.892857142
86
4850.543478260
87
EX-PORTACION
369859.375
334891.2072981
37
318546.5838509
32
390412.5582298
14
392686.3354037
28
384731.0753105
6
52855.39596273
28
32413.14052795
02
23540.95496894
41
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
50,000
150,000
250,000
350,000
450,000
550,000
UTILIZACION DEL CRUDO, BPD
Increasing Fuel Economy Helps for Next 2 Decades, But is Not Enough to Offset Long-Term Growth
DOE is promoting hybrid vehicles in near-termand hydrogen research for long-term.
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Million barrels per day
ProjectedActual
Domestic Production
NHTSA Proposal
20% CAFE Increase
(=28.8 mpg)Transportation
Oil Use 40% CAFE Increase
(=33.6 mpg)
60% CAFE Increase
(=38.4 mpg)
CAFE increases include light trucks
Beyond 2020, EIA data extrapolated
Source: EIA, NREL
Reflexión: contenido manufacturado de exportaciones
Foro Económico MundialRanking de Competitividad del países
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Año
Ra
nk
ing
1
131. pais
EE.UU.Finlandia
ChileEspañaChina
BrazilPeru
Ecuador
Evolución comparada del
PIB per. Cápita
Fuen
te: L
os a
utor
es c
on in
form
acio
n to
mad
a de
Wor
ld D
evel
opm
ent D
atab
ase
Indi
cato
rs
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
45.000
50.000P
IB p
er
cáp
ita U
S$
(1
995=1
00)
Chile Colombia Ireland Israel
Japan Korea, Rep. Singapore Spain
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
45.000
50.000P
IB p
er
cáp
ita U
S$
(1
995=1
00)
Chile Colombia Ireland Israel
Japan Korea, Rep. Singapore Spain
Fuente:Ecsim, 2005
El crecimiento del PIB per cápita de los países Cab ha sido muy modesto frente al de los países que han promovido una transformación productiva
100%100%
25%25%
50%50%
75%75%
Years
Com
poun
d Pr
oduc
tivity
Gro
wth
Standard of living doubles in 72 yearsStandard of living doubles in 72 years
1%1%
3%3%
Standard of living doubles in 24 yearsStandard of living doubles in 24 years
5% 5%
Standard of living doubles in 14 yearsStandard of living doubles in 14 years
Source: Net Impact Study
Productivity Accelerates Standard of Living Improvements
Fossil: Supply and Security
EIA: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/presentations/long_term_supply/index.htm
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Bbbl/yr
10
20
30
40
50World Oil
Production2016
2037
2% demand growthultimate recovery:
3000 Bbbl
When Will Production Peak?
gas: beyond oilcoal: > 200 yrs
production peakdemand exceeds supply
price increasesgeo-political restrictions
World Oil Reserves/Consumption2001
OPEC: Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, and Indonesiahttp://www.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2004/fcvt_fotw336.shtml
unequal supply insecure access
World Energy Demand
EIA Intl Energy Outlook 2004http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html
0
10
20
30
40
50
%
World Fuel Mix 2001oil
gas coal
nucl renew
85% fossil
2100: 40-50 TW 2050: 25-30 TW
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
1970 1990 2010 2030
TW
World Energy Demand
total
industrial
developing US
ee/fsu
energy gap~ 14 TW by 2050~ 33 TW by 2100
Hoffert et al Nature 395, 883,1998
The Role of Renewables in theWorld Energy Supply
Source: OECD/IEA, 2004
Technology-based Solutions:There is no single nor simple answer
• Energy efficiency• Renewable energy• Non-polluting transportation fuels • Separation and capture of CO2 from fossil fuels• Next generation of nuclear fission and fusion technology• Transition to smart, resilient, distributed energy systems coupled with
pollution-free energy carriers, e.g. hydrogen and electricity
PreviewGrand energy challenge
- double demand by 2050, triple demand by 2100
Sunlight is a singular energy resource- capacity, environmental impact, geo-political security
Breakthrough research directions for mature solar energy- solar electric- solar fuels- solar thermal
Absorción y Dispersión Solar
Día soleado Día nublado
Radiación promedio %TpoSoleado x 68 + %TpoNublado x 28
Assumed Advances In• Fossil Fuels• Energy intensity• Nuclear• Renewables
The “Gap”
Gap Technologies
• Carbon capture & disposal
Adv. fossil• H2 and Adv.
Transportation• Biotechnologies
Soils, Bioenergy, adv. Biological energy
The Challenge of Reducing Carbon Emissions
Office of Science
U.S. Department of Energy
Means of Producing Ethanol from Biomass & other Wastes
Thermochemical Hydrolysis
Technology Pros Cons Technology Pros Cons
Gasification – Catalytic Lower capital cost, feedstock flexibility, high yield per ton of feed
Tar production, requires gas cleanup, catalyst poisoning, catalyst disposal, production of mixture of low alcohols (I.e., impure product)
Dilute Acid Hydrolysis Low capital cost, low acid consumption, public domain technology
Lower conversion efficiency, co-factor/toxin production
Gasification – Bioreactor Lower capital cost,feedstock flexibility, high yield per ton of feed
Tar production, requires gas cleanup - bioreactor poisoning with real feedstocks.
Strong Acid Hydrolysis Medium-high capital cost, low acid consumption
Low conversion efficiency, co-factor production
Fractionization - Mechanical
Recovery of pure components
Moderate capital cost, high energy cost
Concentrated Acid Hydrolysis
98% recycling of acid, high conversion efficiency, near zero liquid discharge
Moderately-high capital cost
Fractionization – Solvents
Recovery of pure components
Moderate capital cost, high energy cost
Enzymatic Hydrolysis Enzyme cost reduced recently
NOT Suitable for MSW and Green wastes
Hybrid – Dilute Acid/Enzymatic Hydrolysis
Enzyme cost reduced recently
Co-factor production
Potential Cellulose-to-Ethanol Technologies Initially Reviewed by ARK Energy, Inc.
– Enzymatic Hydrolysis - uses enzymes to cleave the “carbon-oxygen-carbon” link in cellulose molecule
– Acid Hydrolysis - uses acidic protons (H+) to cleave the “carbon-oxygen-carbon” link in cellulose molecule
• Strong, or Weak acid (i.e., concentrated, or dilute)
• Sulfuric, Hydrochloric, Nitric, Hydrofluoric, and so on.– Combination of acid/enzymatic hydrolysis
Structure of the cellulose molecule
Site of attack by enzymes OR acid
Conclusions• Concentrated Sulfuric Acid Route MORE CHEMICALLY EFFICIENT and
MORE THERMALLY EFFICIENT than either Dilute or Weak Acid Routes.• Concentrated Acid Reconcentration Technology is ALREADY IN INDUSTRIAL
USE throughout the world. Safety record is ESTABLISHED.• Concentrated Acid Hydrolysis produces NO TOXINS OR COFACTORS to
inhibit fermentation. • Dilute and Weak Acid Hydrolysis Routes DO PRODUCE TOXINS AND
COFACTORS to inhibit fermentation.• Concentrated Acid Hydrolysis Technology is ECONOMICAL.• Concentrated Acid Hydrolysis Technology is PROTECTED BY PATENTS.
0%
25%
50%
75%
Scenarios
Gam ing
Essays
Citizens Panels
SWOT Analys is
Brains torm ing
Stakeholder Mapping
Cross-im pact analis is
Multi-criteria Analys is
Backcas ting
Other m ethods
Environm ental Scanning
Literature Review
Bibliom etrical analys is
Modelling and s im ulation
Trend Extrapolation
Key Technologies
Expert Panels
Delphi
Technology Roadm apping
Megatrend Analys is
Futures Workshops
Métodos prospectiva gubernamental
Este análisis se ha realizado en base a 124 casos prospectivos patrocinados por gobiernos de distintas partes del mundo.
CREATIVITY
INTERACTION
EXPERTISE
EVIDENCER. Popper (2005) Source: EFMN
Pays Date del'étude
Objectifs deréduction (%)
Horizon(base)
Suisse 1997 - 60 % 2030(1990)
Allemagne 2002 -80% 2030(1990)
Pays-Bas 20002001
-75%- 80%
2050(1990)
Royaume-uni 2000 - 60% 2050(1990)
France 2002 - 75% 2050(1990)
La reducción de las emisiones de CO2 en algunos países europeos
Las opciones tecnológicas de largo plazo
producción de hidrógeno y / o de electricidad a partir de los recursos fósiles (carbón) con captura y almacenamiento de CO2
producción de combustibles y de carburantes a partir de la biomasa
producción de electricidad a partir de las energías renovables (fotovoltaica, solar termodinamica, geotermia profunda)
Las nuevas ramas de actividad nucleares (EPR)
Transportes: grandes proyectos de infraestructura y vehículos limpios : soluciones híbridas
Construcción: certificación de la calidad energética de las construcciones y reglamentación térmica (referencial)
Análisis del impacto de calefacción eléctrica/climatización sobre el consumo eléctrico de punta (impactos fuertes en términos de emisiones de CO2)
Empresas: cuotas de emisión de CO2 y Permiso de emisión: versus un mercado nacional / internacional (certificados CO2)
El dominio de la energía: un preámbulo necesario
Las restricciones económicas ligadas al desarrollo de las energías renovables
Peso de lass inversiones: electrificación rural, producción de electricidad a partir de las EnR (hidroelectricidad, eólica, geotermia)operadores: compañias nacionales de electricidad, productores independientes, delegación del servicio público (régimen de la concesión
Herramientas promotoras nacionales o internacionales: tarifa de compra de la electricidad (negociadas, bajo licitación pública), financiamientos internacionales (GEF), utilización de los mecanismos CDM (complicado), fondos de garantía o fondos de inversión (con derechos CO2)
Cuadro legislativo: estatuto de la producción independiente, régimen de la concesión, PPA, fiscalización (amortización) …..
Techcast´s Latest Strategic Analysis
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Energía
OpticalComputer
sTherapeuti
cFood
DistanceLearnin
g
Ambiente IT-Hardware
Entertainment
on-demand
FabricaciónIT- SoftwareAlimentos IT- Servicios Medicina TransporteEspacial
Information
Appliances
Alternative
Energy
EfficientEnergy
Fuel Cells
Fusion
Designed
Species
Green Business
GreenTaxes
Industrial
Ecology
Recycling
EcosystemDesign
Precision
FarmingOrganicFarmin
g
Artificial food
Aquaculture
Portable
Devices
Parallel CPUs
Wall MonitorsIntelligen
tNetworks
Biochips
Global Communication
s
NeuralITNetwork
s
SmartComputer
s
Virtual Assistants
LanguageTranslation
ExpertSystem
s
ModularSoftware
Human-PCInterface
VirtualReality
Contact
Nanotech
GeneticDifference
s
Designed
Babies
Star Travel
Teleworking
E-Commerce
On-LinePublishin
g
ElectronicBank/Cash
MassCustomizin
g
SmartBioRobots
Automated
Factories
Super-Conductors
Buckyballs
Ceramic Engines
Recyled Autos
Life Span =100
CompositeMetals
Intelligent
Materials
Computerized
Health Care
Cloned Organs
MannedMars
MissionArtificial OrgansGeneticTherap
y
Hybrid Cars
FuelCellCars
Hypersonic
PlanesMaglevTrains
Añ
o e
sti
ma
do
pa
ra a
lcan
zar
el
de
sarr
oll
o e
n .
..
Moon Base
2030
Greenhouse Gases
DesalinizedSea Water
Electronic Paper
Micro-Machines
IntelligentHighways
AutomatedHighways
Fuente: GWForecast.gwu.edu
Motivación: Visión prospectiva del desarrollo de las tecnologías emergentes (Cyberinfrastructure –
NSF)
Potencial de los servicios para el
desarrollo
Tiempo / Crecimientot1 t2 t3 t4
Pony Express
Correo
TrenUnir Fronteras
Transporte
AcercamientoTransoceánico
Telecomunicaciones
Defensa
InternetDesarrolloSocialEconómico
Conocimiento para el Desarrollo, construido sobre Conocimiento
Motivación…. Comunicaciones para el desarrollo
Electricity Outlook: 2001-2025Electricity Outlook: 2001-2025
Source: International Energy Outlook 2003, Table A9
Central/South America782 BKh
1,577 BKh202%
Middle East/Africa
1,000 BKh2,633 BKH
263%
Japan/Australia1,221 BKh1,658 BKh
136%
DevelopingAsia
3,103 BKh6,604 BKh
213%
WesternEurope
2,540 BKh3,708 BKh
146%
3.3%
1.4%
Eastern EuropeFormer Soviet Union 1,768 BKh2,642 BKh149%
NorthAmerica4,293 BKh6,628 BKh
154%1.8%
3.0%
1.6% 2.3%
3.7%
• Total annual average world electricity growth - 2.4% from 2001 to 2025• Growth rates in transitioning economies higher than developed economies• Natural gas and coal will be near-term fuels of choice for generation• Distributed generation and renewable energy will offer attractive options
74% increase
1990: 12 TW 2050: 28 TW
Total Primary Power vs Year
1990: 12 TW 2050: 28 TW
Total Primary Power vs Year
