Basic Radar Analysis and Interpretation Conference...Basic Radar Analysis and Interpretation Mike Gittinger National Weather Service Amarillo Jody James National Weather Service Lubbock

Basic Radar Analysis and Interpretation

Mike Gittinger National Weather Service Amarillo

Jody James

National Weather Service Lubbock

Purpose of this Presentation

• Provide a basic knowledge of radar interpretation and radar limitations.

• Provide some insight into additional factors which play into NWS warning operations

• Cover basic severe signatures

• Intended audience – EMs, HAMs, Skywarn spotters, etc.

• WSR 88-D

• Sends out a microwave pulse

• Listens as energy bounces back

• The more returned, the more dense the object is

• Radar is listening much more than transmitting

Radar Basics

What is Doppler Radar ?

Doppler Radar measures component of velocity that is moving toward or away from the radar by analyzing the Doppler frequency shift from returning echoes.

The WSR-88D uses a pulsed waveform which returns both velocity and range information.

NEXRAD – Why So “Slow”? • Rapid update times (< 1 min) • Continuous monitoring of low levels in

storm • Can continuously sample individual storms • Smaller dish more prone to attenuation • Cores of strong storms near radar often not

sampled

• Can create 3D views of storms • Monitor depth of rotation • Sample storm tops • Evaluate storm strength trends\\ • Create derived products • Minimum sample time of the lowest

elevation scan is 4.1 mins • SAILS - for Supplemental Adaptive

Intra-Volume Low-Level scans • AVSET – Automated Volume Scan

Evaluation and Termination

.5 deg

19.5 deg

Cone of Silence

TV Doppler

WSR 88D VCP- Volume

Coverage Pattern

Beam Characteristics

Definition of the 88D beam

The width of the beam is the distance between the two half-power points (where power drops by 50%). For the 88D, this beamwidth is around 1°.

Beam Characteristics

Fort Worth 94 miles / 8,300 ft

Dyess AFB 25 miles / 1,700 ft

Frederick 112 miles / 11,200 ft

Granger 167 miles / 21,000 ft

Effects of Beam Spreading

RADAR LIMITATIONS

Radar

AMARILLO

The farther the radar is from the storm,

the higher in the storm it “sees”.

PERRYTON

~ 100 Miles

500 ft.

8500 ft.

Beam Location

•Radar assumes beam

is at certain height

based on distance

•Huge implications on

hail forecast

NEXRAD CONUS Coverage Map

Base and Derived Products

The WSR 88D produces three base products: Base Reflectivity – Rain intensity Base Velocity – Wind intensity – radial velocity BV Spectrum Width – Measure of Variability

ALL other WSR 88D products are derived products. Base data is manipulated by a computer program to produce a new product. This new product is a derived product.

Reflectivity (Z)

• Measures returned power back to the radar from targets • Units in dBZ (operational scale from about -30 to +80 dBZ)

Extremely Light

Light

Moderate

Heavy

Extremely Heavy/Hail

Lowest Lowest+1

Lowest+3 Lowest+2

Velocity (V)

Greens/Cool Winds blowing toward the radar

Reds/Warm Winds blowing away from the radar

Velocity (V)

Greens/Cool Winds blowing toward the radar

Reds/Warm Winds blowing away from the radar

• Measures the Doppler Velocity* of targets sampled • Units are in knots. 1 kt = 1.15 mph

Remember – Doppler Velocity

Doppler Radar measures component of velocity that is moving toward or away from the radar (radial velocity).

Just because the radar may indicate low or zero velocity...does not necessarily mean that the wind is not blowing. It may simply mean that the wind is not blowing toward or away from the radar.

Velocity (V)

February 10, 2009 Reflectivity (left) Velocity (right)

Let’s Point out the Features

May 23, 2008 Reflectivity (left) Velocity (right)

Wind Farms

Derived Products

• Composite Reflectivity • Highest value of all tilts

• Echo Tops • VIL • VAD Wind Profile • Precipitation Products • Cross Sections • 3D Views

Two Other Extensively Used Derived Products

Smoothing –boooooo! Storm Relative Velocity

Derived Products

TVS Mesocyclone / Shear Hail Size / Threat

• These 3 derived products are most often misused • Hail algorithms assume standard atmosphere. • Algorithms are meant as Algorithms are meant as last resort • Decisions should NEVER be based solely on a derived product

or algorithm!

Derived Products - Algorithms

The TVS and MESO Indicators

0.5° Reflectivity with TVS/MESO indicators

0.5° Velocity

The TVS and MESO Indicators • These are all areas

of turbulent motion • Radar will have

extreme difficulty in isolating individual circulations within a line

• While tornadoes can form anywhere within a line, the user must focus on favored areas instead of on algorithms

Wait for the Algorithm? • TVS/MESO algorithm failed due to the extensive

range folding in vicinity of the storm.

• Understanding of the near storm environment and subtle radar signatures were key to the successful warning decision.

Bottom line, most tornadoes occur without TVS algorithm

and most algorithm TVSs are not associated with tornadoes

• GR Level 2 Analyst and GR Level 2 processes data at many levels and is more precise.

• This allows for very detailed

volume scans (found in the analyst version).

•Advanced user

• GR Level 3 Data processes at only 4 levels, but you get more derived products and rainfall data

• Basic user

GR Level 2 Analyst Features • Base Reflectivity (BR) • Base Velocity (BV) • Storm Relative Velocity (SRV) • Spectrum Width (SW) • Echo Tops (ET) • Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL) • VIL Density (VILD) • Probability of Severe Hail (POSH) • Maximum Hail Size (MEHS) • Maximum Rotation (NROT) • Tilt Levels • Warnings Display • Placefile Manager – Spotters and Watches • 3-D Volume Scans • Smoothing

Base Reflectivity (BR) – this is the intensity of precipitation returned to the radar site. It is measured in decibels. The color scheme used in GRLevel programs can be adjusted by the user.

Base Velocity (BV) – this feature is perhaps one of the most characteristic of Doppler radars. It revolutionized our ability to detect internal rotation inside potentially tornadic storms prior to tornadic formation. In addition, it allows the radar operator to detect microbursts within storms. Red is outbound, green is inbound.

Radar Site

Storm Relative Velocity (SRV)– similar to Radial Velocity, but takes into account the motion of the storm. Also referred to as Storm Relative Motion (SRM)

Radar Site

Storm Relative Velocity (SRM)

Base Velocity • Ground relative wind speed • Use radar as a reference point • Includes actual storm motion

Storm Relative Velocity • Actual storm motion is subtracted out • Gives a better estimate of the winds

relative to the storm (rotation)


December 31, 2010 0.5° Reflectivity


Base Velocity (top) Storm Relative Velocity (bottom)

0.5° V 0.9° V

0.5° SRM 0.9° SRM

Storm Rotational Tracks & Prelim Damage Paths

http://54.243.139.84/StormDamage/DamageViewer/

http://54.243.139.84/StormDamage/DamageViewer/

Net Rotation – NROT: picks the highest level of wind shear to show the exact location of a Tornado Vortex Signature. Values around 1 or greater are significant.

Echo Tops (ET) – feature that allows the user to quickly calculate the tops of rainfall or thunderstorms (convective activity). Note the scale to the left.

Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL) – integrates the reflectivity vertically to estimate the liquid water content of a cell. The traditional VIL caps the reflectivity values at 56 dbz in order to reduce the contribution of hail.

Severe hail

thresholds are

highly dependent

on atmosphere

temperature

profile

Vil of the day 45

one day, 70

another – based

on level of

various

temperatures

Probability of Severe Hail (POSH) – indicates in percent the probability of hail ¾” or larger.

Vertically Integrated Liquid Density (VILD) – used to indicate hail size.

Maximum Expected Hail Size (MEHS) – An estimate of the maximum hailsize possible in the storm. Does not account for any melting which often occurs.

Smoothing It is important you check the computer graphic requirements from the GRLevel website to see if your computer will have the capability to show smoothing.

Before After Smoothing is EVIL !!!!!!!!!!

Differential Reflectivity (ZDR)

Correlation Coefficient (CC)

Hydrometeor Classification (HCA)

Dual-Polarized Radar Dual-Polarized Radar (upgrade)

• Transmits pulses horizontally and vertically

• Simultaneous

• $225,000/site

Previous After

Upgrade


• Differential Reflectivity (ZDR) is the ratio of horizontally returned power to vertically returned power

Helps discriminate large drops from hail

Liquid vs. Ice

Raindrops become more “oblate”

Hailstones “tumble” and appear more spherical

Oblate Raindrop Hamburger Bun

Hail


• Can help distinguish areas of hail or hail cores

Certain values indicate ice vs. liquid

Reflectivity

Extremely heavy rain or hail?


• Can help distinguish areas of hail or hail cores

Certain values indicate ice vs. liquid

Likely hail core

Differential Reflectivity (ZDR) Reflectivity

Extremely heavy rain or hail?


Good example of hail core area

Correlation Coefficient (CC) Correlation Coefficient measures the “uniformity” of the hydrometeors (or non-precipitation elements)

• Values from 0 to 1.00

• Non-meteorological elements are often noisy and diverse (CC less than 0.80)

Birds, insects, airborne trees, roofs, etc.

Reflectivity

Correlation Coefficient

ALWAYS look

at Base

Reflectivity

with dual-pol

products

WSR-88D view

(NWS Office)


What does this reflectivity image trigger in your mind?

• What may be happening?

Reflectivity


Reflectivity Correlation Coefficient (CC)

Tornado Debris

• Low values

• Noisy signal

• Tip of “hook echo”

Velocity

Hydrometeor Classification (HCA)

Remember…HCA is only where the radar beam intersects a hydrometeor

• It DOES NOT tell you what is falling at the ground

• It can give you strong indications based upon assumptions, but ground truth is needed

Webcams, spotter reports, surface observations (i.e. temp., weather, etc.)

• HCA can classify hydrometeors incorrectly

Precipitation Classification

Rain Below

Melting Level

Heavy Rain Below

Melting Level

Dry Snow

Wet Snow

Hail

Hail

Graupel

Ground Clutter

Melting

Level

New – Giant Hail

Digital Storm-Total Accumulation (DSA)

Expected to produce (and has) more accurate rain amounts

• Processed to a higher resolution

Digital Precipitation Rate (DPR)

Instantaneous precipitation rate!

• Give a good idea of heaviest rain at the moment

And Radar Limitations

Tilt Levels

• Useful with Base Velocity and Storm Relative Velocity to determine the location of rotation

• Useful in locating the hail core.

0.5 Deg 2250 ft 1.5 Deg 5300 ft 2.4 Deg 8200 ft 3.4 Deg 11200 ft 4.3 Deg 13600 ft 5.3 Deg 16500 ft 7.5 Deg 21500 ft 6.2 Deg 18200 ft 8.7 Deg 25000 ft 10.0 Deg 29000 ft 12.0 Deg 34000 ft

Tilt Levels

Algorithms take all scans and produce a 3-D image of a storm. The user can zoom and rotate the storm from virtually any angle.

Hail

April 22, 2015

Hail Cores • Hail growth zone: -10 to -30 ͦ C • Height of 50 and 60 dBZ cores • Severe hail indications

• 50 dBZ to -30 C • 60 dBZ to -20 C

Large Hail?

Composite Ref

Cross Section

Radar Challenges…

The exact same radar signature be severe one time and not the next. True or False

True

What changed?

The Atmosphere

Changes in instability and temperatures high up in the atmosphere (freezing level, etc) impact

• Tornadoes reaching the ground, or not

• Strong winds reaching the surface in squall lines and from downbursts

• Hail formation and size

• This also strongly impacts algorithms!

Storm Circulations and Updrafts

Measuring Updraft Strength Low Level Convergence / Storm Top Divergence

.5 º Ref - 5200 ft 5.0 º Ref - 37000 ft

.5 º Vel - 5200 ft 5.0 º Vel - 37000 ft

Measuring Updraft Strength Storm Top Divergence

.5 Ref - 5200 ft 3.9 Vel - 29000 ft

Measuring Updraft Strength Storm Top Divergence / Low Level Convergence

Ref Vel

Measuring Downdraft Strength Ground Level Divergence – Too Late!

* Severe downburst is hardest element to forecast

Ref Vel

Measuring Downdraft Strength Mid Altitude Radial Convergence (MARC)

Some Lead Time - Not Commonly Seen

Ref SRM

Squall Lines

Small Appendages can sometimes produce brief

tornadoes

“Bowing” appearance in the line can indicate severe

straight-line winds

Aug 19, 2015 – 2 am - Reflectivity

Rear Inflow

Notch

140 am 155 am

201 am

August 19, 2015 – Tornado? Survey Determined this was 90-100 mph Straight-line Winds!

Why Velocities So Low?

Radar only detects component of wind toward or away from radar

Squall Line (QLCS) Tornadoes San Antonio, TX Feb 19 – 956 pm



Ref Vel


Ref Vel

SRM NROT

Tornado,

or No Tornado

Tornado!

Tornado, or No Tornado

No Tornado!


Tornado!


Tornado!


Tornado!


No Tornado!


Tornado!

Tornado, or No Tornado 33 mins later…

Tornado!


When Might a Radar Operator Not Issue Tornado warnings on Strongly Rotating Storm?

Atmosphere not conducive for tornadoes

Storm bases are high (above 6000 ft)

making tornado touchdown unlikely

• More common issue in plains. Rarely

issue for gulf coast.

Storm is elevated above a stable layer

behind a cold front

Spotters have good view and see no

lowering in cloud base

Basic Review - You Tell Me! Quick Glance – Storm Type

Multi-Cell Cluster o Downburst Winds o Hail o Flash Flooding o Tornadoes (usually low)

Multi-Cell Bow Echo o Damaging Winds o Isolated Tornadoes o Flash Flooding o Hail (usually low)

Supercell o Tornadoes o Large Hail o Damaging Winds o Flash Flooding

Basic Review - You Tell Me! Most Dangerous?

Caddo Gap, AR o Catastrophic Flash Flood o 8”+ Overnight o 20 Fatalities o Flow on Little Missouri

River went from 30 ft3/sec to 71,000 ft3/sec in a few hours

Dallas, TX o Squall line merges with

supercell o Catastrophic urban flash

flooding o Rain rates of 6.1”/hr measured o 16 Fatalities

Kiowa County, KS o Supercell over open country in

SW KS o Produced multiple tornadoes o 1 Injury o 0 Fatalities

Radar Apps and Sources

Conclusions

Radar is just one of many tools used to analyze storm intensity and structure. It has many limitations and the user is responsible for understanding these limitations. NEVER base a decision solely on a derived product or algorithm!! What you see is not always what you get. Storm spotters and other information must be utilized in addition to radar data.

Questions ? Comments

[email protected] 806-335-5571 [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Basic Radar Analysis and Interpretation Conference...Basic Radar Analysis and Interpretation Mike Gittinger National Weather Service Amarillo Jody James National Weather Service Lubbock