Bisnode Southern Markets Bulletin April 2016 · Bisnode Southern Markets Bulletin April 2016 Main topic:Main topic: LOW PRICES OF RAW MATERIALS REMAIN A THREAT TO GLOBAL ECONOMY LOW

Bisnode Southern Markets Bulletin April 2016

Main topic:Main topic:

LOW PRICES OF RAW MATERIALS REMAIN A THREATTO GLOBAL ECONOMYLOW PRICES OF RAW MATERIALS REMAIN A THREATTO GLOBAL ECONOMY

Bisnode Southern Markets Bulletin April 2016

CONTENT

�e Bisnode Bulletin is free of charge.

Publisher:BISNODE SOUTHERN MARKETS

Lead analysts: mag. GORAN DOLENC (Main topic), SANJA FILIPIČ (Micro and Macro overview)

Editorial board:ESTER ŽIGON, Bisnode Slovenia MEDIADE®

Director: MARIA ANSELMI

Graphic design: IGOR LOGAR, IGORDESIGN

Photos:ARNELA HADŽIPASIĆ, Bisnode Slovenia

Sources: DUN & BRADSTREET, BISNODE BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA,BISNODE CROATIA, BISNODE SERBIA, BISNODE SLOVENIA

Photo on the front cover:ALEKSANDRA BONČINA, Sales Consultant

Photo on the back cover:GAŠPER KRŽIŠNIK, Sales Consultant

EDITORIAL

TRENDS

MAIN TOPIC:Low prices of raw materials remain a threat to global economy

GAZELLE SERBIA:Which company will be the golden Gazelle in Serbia?

MICRO:Start-ups, deregistrations, insolvency proceedings, blockings

MACRO:GDP, unemployment rate, inflation

Bisnode SM Bulletin April 2016 3EDITORIAL

Editorial

LET'S BECOME A FAST AND LEAN REGION, WHICH IS FULL OF LIFE!

general manager, Bisnode Southern Markets

What animal is known to be among the fastest on earth? Gazelles are able to run in bursts as fast as 100 km/h, and to run at sustained speeds of 50 km/h. What does a gazelle stands for in business terms? A gazelle is an extremely fast-growing company, one that is consistently expanding in terms of both employment and turnover over a prolonged period. These companies are fast and resourceful, bold and hardworking, open to gaining and sharing knowledge. What drives them? Excellence. But that alone is not enough! Their motto says that they can always do better!

Bisnode Slovenia has been supporting the selection of Slovenian Gazelles – the fastest growing companies – from the beginning. I am especially fond of this project because it stands for everything that matters in business today: co-operation, integration, ambition, innovation and knowledge.

And good examples are worth following! Which is why we are helping to spread these excellent practices throughout the Southern Markets region. Last year Bisnode Serbia embarked on a new project: the selection of Serbian Gazelles.

The bigger picture shows us that South-eastern Europe is really becoming one region. And we at Bisnode all have great expectations for the region – which is why we also feel a certain responsibility to help develop it. We feel that we can really become a dynamic, propulsive and high-tech region that can be equally (if not even more) powerful force than others in Europe. Each company in the region is looking for the best way to grow. I believe we can grow even more, and faster. How? Through cooperation, integration, mutual understanding and trust – with projects like Gazelle. Why wouldn't the entire Southern Markets region become a Gazelle one day?

Our strategic partner Dun & Bradstreet opened the door wider for us by offering us access to their in-depth analysis and reports. In keeping with the theme of the month we bring you the first, a summarized report of Dun & Bradstreet’s Global Economic Outlook 2020 Vision. And many others will follow!

The Gazelles project stands for everything that matters in business today: co-operation, integration, ambition, innovation and knowledge.

4 MAIN TOPICBisnode SM Bulletin April 2016 Bisnode SM Bulletin April 2016 5MAIN TOPIC

LOW PRICES OF RAW MATERIALS REMAIN A THREAT TO GLOBAL ECONOMYThe global trade is strongly influenced by the economic crises, political riots and natural disasters. Nevertheless, the business risks the world is facing today are according to Dun & Bradstreet’s Global Economic Outlook 2020 Vision much higher than they were 20 years ago.

WHAT ARE THE ECONOMIC FORECASTS UNTIL 2020?

N. AMERICA

S. AMERICA

AFRICA

EUROPE ASIA

AUSTRALIA

2 1

3

7

6

4

5

1 EUROPECURRENT SITUATION: current interest rates below targets, big differences between the countries

FORECAST: UK’s exit from the EU, exclusion of Greece from the euro area, refugee crisis and closed borders

2 NORTH AMERICACURRENT SITUATION: remains among the least risky regions

FORECAST: stable GDP growth until 2019, $ remains a strong currency

3 LATIN AMERICACURRENT SITUATION: similar to the below forecast, has been materialising in Brazil since 2013

FORECAST: lagging behind the global GDP, negative economic trends, growing pessimism, more restrictive monetary policy of the US FED will cause a rise in inflation

4 EAST EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIACURRENT SITUATION: structural reforms have a negative impact on the business environment, but they are also a long-term opportunity for growth; geopolitical tension in the region

FORECAST: lower oil prices will reduce economic growth (2.4% p.a.), few investments

5 MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA CURRENT SITUATION: the region depends on oil price fluctuations, unstable business environment, corruption, poor competitiveness, violation of laws, security

FORECAST: oil price in 2016 under $ 40 for a barrel, as of 2017, it shall start growing again, to about $ 100 for a barrel in 2020

6 ASIA / PACIFIC CURRENT SITUATION: low GDP growth and few investments in Japan; in India, GDP increases in India but profitability is low

FORECAST: the risk of overindebtedness of the Chinese companies, the risk of a balloon of investments in raw materials industry in China; the share of NPLs in India is growing

7 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA CURRENT SITUATION: in the last two years, the prices have dropped, namely that of iron ore (by 70%), oil (by 60%), natural gas (by 50%) etc.

FORECAST: lower prices of raw materials can increase the fiscal deficit, weak domestic currencies and consequently high inflation

CURRENT SITUATION FORECAST

Main topic

Source: Dun & Bradstreet

6 MAIN TOPIC

TODAY’S OPERATIONS TWICE AS RISKY AS 20 YEARS AGO Dun & Bradstreet regularly calculates the CIPS Global Risk Index (CIPS GRI). Its value ranges between 0, meaning no risk, and 100, meaning the highest risk.

2016: WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME RAW MATERIALS WERE SO CHEAP?Operations in 2016 will be characterised by extremely low prices of raw materials such as oil, natural gas, coal, iron ore, aluminium, copper, zinc and cotton. Considering inflation it can be established that the current prices are at the same level as they were more than a decade ago.

THE CHEAPES COMMODITIES PER YEARS:

In 1994 we lived in a world with a Global Risk Index of 25; today, its value ranges around 80. In other words, the risk of operations at the global level has increased at least two-fold. Asia-Pacific and West and Central Europe are the regions contributing the most to this increase, and America the least.

251994

381999

natural gasgasoline, crude oil

zinccopper

a barrel of brent crude oil iron orecoal

402004

772014

802016

642009

CIPS GRI VALUE

YEAR

1991

2003 2004

2005

2007

2009

Cu Zn

Bisnode SM Bulletin April 2016



7MAIN TOPIC

SIX CENTRAL GLOBAL RISKS UNTIL 2020

GDP WILL DROP IN BRICS, CHINA, INDIA,

RUSSIA, BRAZIL,SOUTH AFRICA.

1

2

3

5

4

THE LOW PRICES OF OIL WILL AFFECT THE CHANGES IN THE ECONOMIC

POWER AMONG COUNTRIES.

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON

GDP IN DIRECTLY ENDANGERED

COUNTRIES AND A BROADER AREA.

CONTINUOUS NON-COMPLIANCE WITH THE INTERNATIONAL TREATIES

IMPACT ON THE PERFORMANCE OF CORPORATIONS.

SLOW GROWTH INCHINESE DEMAND ABROAD

NEGATIVE IMPACTON DEPENDING COUNTRIES.

Read the entire report HERE.



R U S S I A N F E D E R A T I O N

FINLAND

AUSTRIA

ITALY

SPAIN

SWEDEN

NORWAY

GERMANY

FRANCE

PORTUGAL

HUNGARY

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

TURKEY

DENMARK

POLAND

BELARUS

UKRAINECZECH REP.SLOVAKIA

GREECE

CYPRUS

NETH.

BELGIUM

IRELAND

SERBIA

ALBANIA

MOLDOVA

LITHUANIA

LATVIA

ESTONIA

LUX.

MONTENEGRO

BOSNIA &HERZEGOVINA

CROATIASLOVENIA

SWITZ.

MACEDONIA (FYR)

GREENLAND

ICELAND

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

HAWAII (US)

CANADA

MEXICO

THE BAHAMAS

CUBA

PANAMA

EL SALVADORGUATEMALA

BELIZEHONDURAS

NICARAGUA

COSTA RICA

JAMAICA

HAITI

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

PUERTO RICO

ARGENTINA

BOLIVIA

COLOMBIA

VENEZUELA

PERUBRAZIL

FRENCH GUIANASURINAME

GUYANA

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO

CHILE

ECUADORGALÁPAGOS

PARAGUAY

URUGUAY

FALKLAND ISLANDS

KENYA

ETHIOPIA

ERITREA

SUDAN

EGYPT

NIGER

MAURITANIA

MALI

NIGERIA SOMALIA

NAMIBIA

LIBYA

CHAD

SOUTH AFRICA

TANZANIA

CONGODEM. REP. (ZAIRE)

ANGOLA

ALGERIA

MADAGASCAR

MAURITIUSMOZAMBIQUE

BOTSWANA

ZAMBIA

GABON

CENTRAL AFRICANREPUBLIC

TUNISIA

MALTA

MOROCCO

UGANDA

SWAZILAND

LESOTHO

MALAWI

BURUNDI

RWANDA

TOGO

BENIN

GHANAIVORYCOAST

LIBERIA

SIERRA LEONE

GUINEABURKINA

GAMBIA

CAMEROON

ZIMBABWE

CONGO

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

WESTERNSAHARA

DJIBOUTI

SENEGAL

GUINEA BISSAU

JORDAN

ISRAEL

LEBANON

ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN

GEORGIAKYRGYZ REPUBLIC

TAJIKISTAN

KUWAIT

QATARBAHRAIN

U. A. E.

YEMEN

SYRIA

IRAQ IRAN

OMAN

SAUDI ARABIA

AFGHANISTAN

PAKISTAN

INDIA

C H I N A

KAZAKHSTAN

TURKMENISTAN

UZBEKISTAN

MYANMAR

THAILAND

CAMBODIA

NEPAL

BHUTAN

VIETNAM

SRI LANKA

LAOSBANGLADESH

MALAYSIA

SINGAPORE

EAST TIMOR

PAPUANEW GUINEA

BRUNEI

PHILIPPINES

TAIWAN

HONG KONG (S.A.R.)

I N D O N E S I A

JAPAN

MONGOLIA

SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA

AUSTRALIA

NEW ZEALAND

UNITEDKINGDOM

NEW CALEDONIA

FIJI

SOLOMONISLANDS

Dun & Bradstreet assessed country risk as at January 2016. Check how country risk affects the risk of your business partners abroad.

More information on www.bisnode.si/dnb.

Country risk assessment

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Low risk High risk

No rating

COUNTRY RISK MAPIn partnership with Dun & Bradstreet, Bisnode offers business reports for250 million companies from 220 countries all over the world.

Bisnode D&B Southern market d.o.o.Likozarjeva ulica 3, 1000 Ljubljana,T: 080 39 03 www.bisnode.si/dnb

9TRENDS

YOU FIND AN ANSWER AND ARE CONTENT TO STOP THERE. The world around us is constantly changing and data is changing with it.To rely on smart data is a work in progress.

The content is a part of the article Analysis traps you should avoid published in Brains Magazine. © Bisnode Sweden

1.

COMING UP WITH AN ANSWER FIRST AND THEN LOOKING FOR IT IN THE DATA. It’s not a bad thing to have hypotheses, but to have decided on the answer in advance is something that should be avoided. A hypothesis must be tested critically for the result to have any value.

FINDING CORRELATIONS THAT DON’T HAVE ANY DIRECT CONNECTION. An increase in the number of drowning accidents at the same time as sales of ice cream increase does not mean that ice cream is dangerous. After all, they both depend on it being hot and sunny.“This is how many mistakes are made: you find connections but don’t bother to investigate whether they are dependent on one another or on a common third factor,” says Nicke Rydgren, the Head of Professional Services and Analysis at Bisnode.

4 COMMON MISTAKES WHEN YOU INTERPRET LARGE QUANTITIES OF COMPLEX DATA

DRY, HOT AND SUNNYSUMMER WEATHER

CORRELATION ?

ICE CREAM

CAUSATION

SUNBURN

2.

3.

WORKING ON YOUR OWN … … instead to discuss your analysis with a colleague who is neutral. It’s difficult to push the analysis an extra notch on your own because the brain quickly and unconsciously starts to confirm its own conclusions.

4.

CAUSATION

Trends


10 GAZELLE SERBIA Bisnode SM Bulletin April 2016

Gazelle Serbia

WHICH COMPANY WILL BE THE GOLDEN GAZELLE IN SERBIA?Among the many companies on the market the Gazelles have been recognized in the European environment as a very special ingredient of every national economy. They are not only fast growing and exert a positive influence on their partners and the community, but they also become examples and cornerstones of economic growth. In The Year of Entrepreneurship Bisnode Serbia will for the first time award the best among the fastest growing companies in Serbia.

Bisnode Serbia has established a robust methodology in bringing together experience with Gazelle projects abroad and their business intelligence expertise in Serbia. The first step was to choose the 500 fastest growing companies and to double-check their financial results and business intelligence indicators. Files for the top 20 companies to emerge out of the process were handed over to trained experts who made detailed interviews with the managers and/or owners who contributed to their success and are primarily responsible for their growth.

PROMOTING THE VALUES OF GROWTHThe interviews are designed to elicit an answer to the question: why are they so successful and how do they see their venture developing in the future. We look for sustainability and potential for growth, examine the risk profile, company culture and values, as well as communications within the company and the social responsibility it demonstrates.

Qualitative analysis supported by quantitative data narrows the field down to five candidate files that are forwarded to the Council of Gazelles. The council is established as a body of experts that have the final decision on who earns a place among the best three gazelles in Serbia, together with their ranking. The Council of Gazelles consists of individuals and representatives of institutions and companies that are both intelligent and experienced, drawn from a wide spectrum from the commercial sphere, where they have demonstrated a strong impact with their results and the resulting reputation they reflect back on the community.

Bisnode Serbia also takes care that the wider community gets information on the project and that it is promptly notified through media partnerships and collaboration with national business associations, government institutions and others that have established themselves as generous supporters of the values behind the Gazelle project. Supporters are offered the opportunity to bring attention to their partners by sponsoring candidates, and through nominees and winners of the Gazelle of Serbia project.

CONNECTING AND PROMOTING COMMON IDEAS

This year Serbia celebrates The Year of Entrepreneurship. So it’s no coincidence that Bisnode Serbia decided to establish the Gazelle of Serbia project now, in the Year of Entrepreneurship. The aim of promoting entrepreneurship and our own project goals are tightly connected in terms of values and address society as whole in order to rise awareness of the good examples we have all around us and that make our business environment more efficient and competitive. The main goal of Gazelles of Serbia is to connect these common values with common ideas and to bring related projects together.

Irina Zdravković, Bisnode SerbiaProject manager of the Gazelles of Serbia contest

MEMBERS OF THE COUNCIL OF GAZELLES ARE (in alphabetical order):

Maria Anselmi, general manager of Bisnode Southern Markets, Marko Čadež, president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Serbia, Milan Petrović, president of the Serbian Association of Managers (SAM), dr. Miloš Petrović, director of the Serbian Development Agency (RAS), Dragica Pilipovic Chaffey, CEO of Serbia Broadband (SBB), Željko Sertić, Minister of Economy, dr. Dejan Šoškić, Faculty of Economics University of Belgrade, and Aleksandar Vlahović, president of the Serbian Association of Economists.

11GAZELLE SERBIA Bisnode SM Bulletin April 2016

THE LIST OF 500 FASTEST GROWING COMPANIES The list of the 500 fastest growing companies, the so-called Gazelles, serves as the starting point for the Gazelle contest. Based on official data, reported to APR, all companies are ranked according to their 5-year turnover performance. A 5-year period is taken into account in order to avoid the impact of sudden and short-term sales growth, and to provide a sound indicator of sustainable growth in the future.

After the first selection criterion is put in place a unique methodology is applied, whereby a company should prove compliant with the following standards. The company should have• a turnover of more than 30 million RSD in the last year,• generated a positive net profit in the last two years,• created new job positions during the last 5 years,• not been involved in insolvency or account blocking procedures in the last year,• not assumed excessively high credit risk to secure legal relief from its creditors,• managed and operated its assets in efficiently and effectively.

Robert Petrič, Bisnode Slovenia, Director of Production

´HAND-PICKED´ 50 CANDIDATES AND 20 NOMINEESThe 500 listed gazelles are scored according to the BSI Bisnode Success index. The index is based on the stakeholders concept: how a company is performing from the perspective of its owners, lenders, employees and the state. The index information is combined with desktop research on the companies: history, entrepreneurial story, business model, internationalisation, brand development, innovation. A total of 50 candidates are proposed by the Bisnode intelligence unit, from which 20 nominees are then selected by the methodology committee, represented by experts in the fields of entrepreneurship, management and business analytics. Experience shows that knowledge transfer and innovation generation is an intrinsic part of their co-operation. 20 nominees are then invited to take part in the contest, and personal interviews are conducted with all of them. The aim of the structured interview is to determine the growth orientation of the company, its business model, leadership potential and potential for innovation and sustainability. The company information file is complemented by a rating report on the participating company and systematically presented in the form of a detailed company file suitable for further methodology process phases.

Ljiljana Cupara, Bisnode Serbia, Rating, COO

CHOOSING THE BEST FROM THE FASTEST GROWING COMPANIESThe aim of the Gazelle Contest is to recognize the best company among the body of fastest growing companies. A complex yet transparent process integrates advanced business data analysis and desktop research with qualitative research. From the 20 nominated companies the methodology committee selects 5 finalists. The key and final decision on the selection of the Golden Gazelle of the year is entrusted to the highest level of the project – the Council of Gazelles. In addition to the business metrics components and entrepreneurial story of the candidates the Council’s decision also takes into account the values of the dynamic growth as well as the company’s potential for sustainable growth.

Mag. Edita Krajnović, Mediade,head of the Gazelle methodology process

METHODOLOGY: THE STORY BEHIND THE NUMBERS

12 GAZELLE SERBIABisnode SM Bulletin April 2016

TOP 50 GAZELLE SERBIA CANDIDATES (in alphabetical order)

AB & CO DOO NOVI SAD

ASA IBELIK DOO BEOGRAD

BANIJA-PAL DOO TEMERIN

BELIT DOO BEOGRAD

CHEMICAL AGROSAVA DOO BEOGRAD

COMING-COMPUTER ENGINEERING DOO BEOGRAD

ĆATIĆ COMPANY DOO PRIJEPOLJE

D.A.-DIZAJN ARHITEKTURA DOO BEOGRAD

D-COMPANY DOO BABUŠNICA

DRVOPROMET-KULA DOO BEOGRAD

ELPOS DOO BEOGRAD

ENEL DOO BEOGRAD

ENEL DOO VALJEVO

EP-BELT DOO LOZNICA

EUROMODUL DOO NOVA PAZOVA

FEROMONT INŽENJERING DOO BEOGRAD

FORMAPHARM ENGINEERING GROUP DOO BEOGRAD

FULLHOUSE OGILVY DOO BEOGRAD

GASTEH DOO INĐIJA

GRINDEX DOO KIKINDA

HDL DESIGN HOUSE DOO BEOGRAD

HRANA PRODUKT DOO SALAŠ NOĆAJSKI

IBIS-INSTRUMENTS DOO BEOGRAD

IIB DOO BEOGRAD

INDAS DOO NOVI SAD

INOP DOO ŠABAC

KIM-TEC SERVIS DOO BEOGRAD

MATIS DOO IVANJICA

MDS INFORMATIČKI INŽENJERING DOO BEOGRAD

MERA DOO ZRENJANIN

METALFER DOO SREMSKA MITROVICA

MIKRO KONTROL DOO BEOGRAD

MINEL GENERAL ELECTRIC DOO BEOGRAD

MONT-R DOO BEOGRAD

MPG PLUS DOO BEOGRAD

PEKARA KIRĆANSKI ALEKSANDAR KIRĆANSKI PR BEOGRAD

POL DOO BEOGRAD

PROPULZIJA DOO BEOGRAD

PUBLIK DOO VALJEVO

SAMEDI DOO VALJEVO

SZR VRAČAR BRANISLAV VRAČAR PR NOVI SAD

TERMOENERGO INŽENJERING DOO BEOGRAD

TERMOMETAL DOO ADA

TODOROVIĆ DOO KRAGUJEVAC

UNIMER DOO KRUŠEVAC

UNIPROMET DOO ČAČAK

VEGA IT SOURCING DOO NOVI SAD

VINARIJA KOVAČEVIĆ DOO IRIG

WOOD MASTER DOO VALJEVO

ZOMONT DOO BEOGRAD

COMPANY MUNICIPALITY

TOTAL REVENUEIN 2014

(in RSD THOUSAND)

NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN

2014

REVENUE GROWTH INDEX

IN 2014

Novi Sad-Grad

Beograd-Zvezdara

Temerin

Beograd-Stari Grad

Beograd-Novi Beograd

Beograd-Čukarica

Prijepolje


Babušnica

Beograd-Palilula

Beograd-Voždovac

Beograd-Voždovac

Valjevo

Loznica

Stara Pazova

Beograd-Voždovac

Beograd-Palilula

Beograd-Stari Grad

Inđija

Kikinda

Beograd-Vračar

Sremska Mitrovica


Beograd-Čukarica

Novi Sad-Grad

Šabac

Beograd-Palilula

Ivanjica


Zrenjanin

Sremska Mitrovica

Beograd-Savski Venac


Beograd-Čukarica

Beograd-Zemun

Beograd-Zvezdara

Beograd-Zvezdara

Beograd-Čukarica

Valjevo

Valjevo

Novi Sad-Grad

Beograd-Zvezdara

Ada

Kragujevac-Grad

Kruševac

Čačak

Novi Sad-Grad

Irig

Valjevo

Beograd-Rakovica

93,269

639,791

497,313

166,699

3.095,248

517,856

451,790

154,744

1.399,331

607,471

154,392

476,334

380,503

1,366,349

746,014

2,399,460

1,361,966

516,809

647,369

417,258

298,132

2,258,219

755,954

140,673

818,138

110,860

94,982

2,191,035

1,029,849

272,827

4,327,469

599,882

70,235

849,485

258,864

73,400

367,530

125,849

1,217,282

556,941

687,683

218,735

1.109,199

166,203

185,995

2,981,014

217,886

251,499

571,451

219,977

24

65

85

22

137

38

52

32

248

50

21

34

25

128

57

696

82

38

104

72

74

95

34

27

73

28

27

306

50

75

42

43

25

255

33

21

59

22

79

156

48

29

300

26

34

279

43

23

133

46

2.18

4.22

4.95

1.44

1.89

1.41

2.27

2.18

3.60

1.38

1.48

1.25

2.65

1.94

5.83

2.11

2.67

2.22

1.25

6.69

2.63

2.19

1.65

1.55

2.52

1.82

2.08

2.60

1.28

3.37

39.20

1.90

2.18

1.75

3.60

1.73

3.95

3.21

1.78

3.18

1.60

4.89

2.21

1.71

2.34

2.23

5.75

1.93

1.99

1.95

14 MACROBisnode SM Bulletin April 2016

MACRO OVERVIEWOF THE ECONOMY – SOUTHERN MARKETS

GDP, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, INFLATION

GROWTH

DECREASE

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

INFLATIONBIH

0.2%

€€

SLO

-0.7%3.3%

€€€

12.9%

HR

RS

1.2% 17.9%* 1.5%

€€

1.9% -1.4%18.5%

€€€

€

GDP€€€€€€€€

ZERO GROWTH

Source: www.bisnode.si

In the fourth quarter of 2015 SLOVENIA recorded the highest economic growth – 3.3 PERCENT, while SERBIA still recorded the lowest growth – 1.2 PERCENT. Compared to the third quarter of 2015, economic growth improved in all countries, most of all in BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA, by as much as 3.2 PERCENTAGE POINTS.

In January CROATIA recorded the highest level of unemployment, namely 18.5 PERCENT, and Slovenia the lowest, at 12.9 PERCENT. According to the ILO data SERBIA recorded 17.9 PERCENT unemployment in the fourth quarter of 2015. Compared to the same period last year, unemployment in both SLOVENIA and CROATIA fell, while in SERBIA unemployment rose slightly.

In February, only SERBIA recorded inflation, while in BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA, prices remained unchanged; on the other hand CROATIA and SLOVENIA recorded deflation. Compared to the same period the previous year, prices dropped most significantly in CROATIA, namely by 1.0 PERCENTAGE POINT. Prices only increased in SERBIA – by 0.7 PERCENTAGE POINTS.

GLOSSARY:

GDP or gross domestic product is the market value of all final products and services created by the economy of a country in one year. Economic growth is measured as growth in gross domestic product (GDP) for the quarterly period. The infographic shows growth in the FOURTH QUARTER 2015 compared with growth for the third quarter of 2015.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE indicates the proportion of persons in the active population not in an employment relationship. Calculated according to two methodologies: survey-based unemployment (ILO) and registered unemployment. For Slovenia and Croatia, data on registered unemployment is provided, while ILO data is used for Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia, as no data on registered unemployment is available. The infographic shows data for JANUARY 2016 and the development trend compared to the same period last year.

INFLATION marks the growth in the level of prices in general, while the inflation rate shows the change in the level of prices (annual index). The infographic shows data on annual inflation for FEBRUARY 2016 and the development trend compared to the same period last year.

data for the fourth quarter of 2015

no data for the selected period.

15MICRO Bisnode SM Bulletin April 2016

MICRO OVERVIEWOF THE ECONOMY – SOUTHERN MARKETS

NEW BUSINESS START-UPS – FEBRUARY 2016The number of new business start-ups includes companies, private entrepreneurs and other legal forms of organisation engaged in economic activities. The infographic shows the share of all businesses less than one month old in total active economic subjects on southern markets at the monthly level, the absolute value for such, and the trend in growth compared to the same period the previous year.

In February 2016, the largest number of companies were founded in SLOVENIA and the smallest in SERBIA. Compared to the same period last year, the number of new business start-ups fell in all countries, most notably in SERBIA.

DEREGISTRATIONS – FEBRUARY 2016The infographic shows the share of deregistrations of companies, sole proprietors and other legal entities performing economic activity in total active economic subjects on southern markets at the monthly level, the absolute value of such, and the trend of growth compared to the same period the previous year.

In February, the largest number of deregistrations was recorded in CROATIA, at 1,695. Compared to the same period last year, the number of deregistered companies rose both in CROATIA and SLOVENIA.

In February, the largest share of new business start-ups was recorded in BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA – 1.9 PERCENT, and the smallest still in SERBIA – 0.53 PERCENT. This means that one new company was founded in BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA per 50 companies, while in SERBIA, the respective figure was one per 200 companies.

In February, the highest share of deregistrations was recorded in CROATIA – 1.11 PERCENT, which means that in CROATIA one company per every 90 was deleted, while the respective number in SLOVENIA was one per every 100 companies.


902 1,792 1,470 688

1.90% 1.26% 0.96% 0.53%

NUMBER OF NEW BUSINESS START-UPS

TREND COMPARED TO THE SAME PERIOD OF THE PREVIOUS YEAR

SHARE OF NEW BUSINESS START-UPS IN TOTAL ACTIVE ECONOMIC ENTITIES


1,695 1,458

1.11% 1.02%

NUMBER OF DEREGISTRATIONS


SHARE OF DEREGISTRATIONS OF COMPANIES IN TOTAL ACTIVE ECONOMIC ENTITIES

16 MICROBisnode SM Bulletin April 2016

INSOLVENCY PROCEEDINGS – FEBRUARY 2016The infographic shows the share of insolvency proceedings for companies, sole proprietors and other legal entities performing economic activity in the southern markets in total active economic subjects against which an insolvency proceeding was initiated in the month concerned (bankruptcy, compulsory settlement, liquidation), the absolute value of such, and the trend of growth compared to the same period the previous year.

The largest number of new insolvency procedures in February were initiated in SLOVENIA, and the least in CROATIA. Compared to the same period last year, the number of new insolvencies fell in SLOVENIA and CROATIA, while it rose in SERBIA.

BLOCKINGS – FEBRUARY 2016The infographic shows the share of companies, sole proprietors and other legal entities performing economic activity in the southern markets in total active economic subjects whose transaction accounts were blocked for at least one day in the month concerned, the absolute value and the trend of growth compared to the same period of the previous year.

In February, the most blockings were recorded in SERBIA and the least in SLOVENIA. Compared to the same period last year, the number of blockings again fell in all countries, and falling most significantly in BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA.


393 264 205

0.28% 0.20% 0.13%

NUMBER OF INSOLVENCY PROCEDURES


SHARE OF INSOLVENT COMPANIES IN TOTAL ACTIVE ECONOMIC ENTITIES

In February, the largest share of insolvencies was recorded in SLOVENIA – 0.28 PERCENT, and the smallest in CROATIA – 0.13 PERCENT. Thus in SLOVENIA one new insolvency proceeding was initiated per every 360 companies, in SERBIA one per every 490 companies and in CROATIA one per every 740 companies.


14,016 31,539 20,799 9,522

29.57% 24.25% 13.64% 6.67%

NUMBER OF BLOCKINGS


SHARE OF BLOCKINGS IN TOTAL ACTIVE ECONOMIC ENTITIES

In February, the largest number of blockings was recorded in BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA – 29.57 PERCENT and the lowest in SLOVENIA – 6.67 PERCENT. This means that in BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA every THIRD company was blocked, in SERBIA every FOURTH, in CROATIA every SEVENTH, and in SLOVENIA every FIFTEENTH.

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Documents

Bisnode Southern Markets Bulletin April 2016 · Bisnode Southern Markets Bulletin April 2016 Main topic:Main topic: LOW PRICES OF RAW MATERIALS REMAIN A THREAT TO GLOBAL ECONOMY LOW