BRAC: Challenges & Opportunities

BRAC: Challenges & OpportunitiesThe Role of BRAC inBuilding Marylands Future

BRAC Planning

The Lt. Governor & the BRAC Subcabinet are preparing an Action Plan to address the needs of residents and businesses due to arrive in Maryland from BRAC.

The BRAC Action Plan will maximize and leverage the opportunities created by BRAC by identifying projects, programs and initiatives tokeep Maryland prosperous, safe and sustainable.

BRAC Planning Principles:

Work with the County & municipal governments to identify a common Vision within which interests can be aligned and a strategies established to address needs efficiently and effectively;

Planning work is focused on identifying and eliminating barriers to broad and specific goals, ensure project certainty, and streamlined to avoid project delays;

BRAC Planning Principles:

Coordinate and build upon efforts that support growth management, community revitalization, reduce infrastructure expenses, and generate economic activity;

Build on existing technical capacity to create an atmosphere of cooperation & good-will between state & local governments to ease future interactions.

Key Numbers for the Eight-Jurisdiction Region15,000 direct jobs.

40-60,000 indirect jobs.

25,000 associated households.

BRAC Job Supply by Jurisdiction

BRAC Household Demand by Jurisdiction

Chart4

6533

1998

3653

2549

4457

1853

2274

1995

Eight jurisdiction total = 25,312 households

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from RESI

BRAC Household Demand in Eight Jurisdiction Study Area

Rest of State2,864 (10%)

Prince George's1,995 (8%)

Montgomery2,274 (9%)

Howard1,853 (7%)

Anne Arundel4,457 (18%)

Baltimore City 2,549 (10%)

Baltimore County3,653 (14%)

Cecil1,998 (8%)

Harford6,533 (26%)

Chart1

14159

10679

474

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from RESI

Chart 1. BRAC Household Demand by Base for Eight-Jurisdiction Study Area

Ft. Meade10,679 (42%)

Aberdeen Proving Ground14,159 (56%)

Andrews Air Force Base474 (2%)

Chart2

13549

7189

4573

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning

Chart 2. BRAC Household Demand by Housing Cost/Quality

Medium Cost/Quality7,189 (28%)

High Cost/Quality13,549 (54%)

Lower Cost/Quality4,573 (18%)

Chart3

21569

3743

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning

Chart 3. BRAC Household Demand Inside/Outside of PFAs

Inside PFA21,569 (85%)

Outside PFA3,743, 15%

Chart5

0.0492252504

0.0354170414

0.0708975597

0.1201017968

0.1382096188

0.0710744199

0.2994652406

0.3655648384

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning

* Available supply includes both new units and turnover of existing units

Chart 5. BRAC Household Demand as A Percent of Available Housing Supply Inside of PFAs, 2009 to 2015 *

Chart6

0.0405982906

0.0430793777

0.0543657331

0.1854395604

0

0.1950404012

0.271926465

0.4447407407

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning

* Available supply includes both new units and turnover of existing units

Chart 6. BRAC Household Demand as A Percent of Available Housing Supply Outside of PFAs, 2009 to 2015 *

Sheet1

HarfordCecilBaltimore CountyBaltimore CityAnne ArundelHowardMontgomeryPrince George'sRest of StateTotal

6,5331,9983,6532,5494,4571,8532,2741,9952,86428,17656,352

25.8%7.9%14.4%10.1%17.6%7.3%9.0%7.9%25,312

Aberdeen Proving GroundsFt. MeadeAndrews Air Force Base

1415910679474

High Cost/QualityMedium Cost/QualityLower Cost/Quality

1354971894573

Inside PFAOutside PFA

215693743

87654321

Prince George'sMontgomeryHowardAnne ArundelBaltimore CityBaltimore CountyCecilHarford

Inside PFA/Sewer Areas4.9%3.5%7.1%12.0%13.8%7.1%29.9%36.6%

Outside PFA Sewer Areas4.1%4.3%5.4%18.5%0.0%19.5%27.2%44.5%

Sheet2

Sheet3

234,431Acres

Key BRAC Issues:Increased development pressure, particularly in Harford and Cecil Counties. Many jurisdictions will need to take significant steps now to enable their growth areas to accommodate more development capacity.At the same time take action to protect important rural & natural areas.

Key BRAC Issues:Of the 25,300 households, 21,600, or 85%, are expected in PFAs / growth areas.3,700, or 15%, are expected to locate outside of a PFA/sewer areas.Tapping the reservoir of capacity that exists within Baltimore City.

Strategically Approach BRAC Challenges and Opportunities:BALANCE NEEDS & RESOURCES Housing Infrastructure Commercial Development Transportation

Education Health & Human Services Work Force Development NaturalFinancial

Housing Affordability by Census Tract for Repeat Buyers, 2002 - 2006(Based on Statewide Median Household Incomes)

Closing ThoughtsBRAC is not the sole driver of growth in the State.

Focused, well coordinated planning is critical.

There will be smart growth, sprawl growth, and deflected growth.

Partnerships will be necessary. Everyone has a role public, private and non-profit sectors.

Good Afternoon

My name is Don Halligan

I am the Assistant Secretary for Planning Services at the Maryland Department of Planning

Im here today for Secretary Richard Hall who had a previous commitment. He sends his regards.

Thank you very much for the opportunity to speak to you today on BRAC, its role and the challenges and opportunities it brings to us.

I was placed last in order here to provide you with a bit of a broader perspective on BRAC.

And talk about its role in shaping Marylands future.

The Lt Gov & the BRAC Subcabinet are preparing an ACTION PLAN to address the needs of residents and businesses in MD and due to arrive in MD as a result of BRAC

The ACTION PLAN will maximize and leverage the opportunities created by BRAC by identifying projects, programs and initiatives that build on the Governors Pillars of Progress and keep Maryland Prosperous;Safe; and,Sustainable.As a member of the BRAC Subcabinet and as lead in the Smart Growth Subcabinet efforts, MDP will be utilizing the following four (4) Principles in its approach to the ACTION PLAN.

First, we will work with the County and municipal governments WHO MAKE LAND USE DECISIONS DAILY to identify a common VISION within which interests (STATE, LOCAL, PRIVATE) can be aligned and strategies established to address needs efficiently and effectively.

Second, planning is to be focused to eliminate barriers, ensure project certainty, contain costs, and avoid project delays.

Third, MDP will coordinate PLANNING ACTIVITIES and build upon efforts that support growth management, SMART GROWTH, community revitalization, reducing infrastructure expenses and generate economic activity.

Fourth and last, we will build upon existing technical capacities to create an atmosphere of cooperation and good will between state and local governments to ease future interactions.

In my 23 years of planning I have seen too many opportunities for significant public benefit fall apart because of differences between personalities.Key Numbers for the Eight-Jurisdiction Region15,300 direct jobs.40,000 60,000 additional jobs. *25,000 associated households.23% of 8-county regions HH growth from 2009 to 2015.Varies by county: 55% in Harford; 37% in AA; 36% in Baltimore Co; 26% in Cecil.

Anne Arundel County BRAC InformationMeade: BRAC: 5,800Non: BRAC DoD Changes: around 2,000NSA: around 4,000 (same time period as BRACEUL: 10,000 On Ft. Meade Base * * This is not an official DOD number.YOUVE LIKELY SEEN THESE BEFORE

Where we expect the bulk of jobs to be: Harford Anne Arundel

Several things should be noted:

Estimates here do not reflect the total number of non-embedded contractor jobs. Embedded jobs, along with other support services off base, will add a considerable number of jobs to the base and surrounding communities.

At this time Anne Arundel and Howard County are estimating that an additional 10,000 non-embedded, but mostly BRAC related contractors, will be working in or around Ft. Meade as well as an undisclosed number of non-BRAC related National Security Agency jobs.

New household demand from BRAC is expected to be highest in:Harford County and Anne Arundel Counties,

followed by:Baltimore County, Baltimore City, Montgomery County, Cecil County, Prince Georges County and Howard County.

Its important to note that development is planned to occur across Central MD with-or-without BRAC.

Based upon current trends MDP expects Central MD to develop about 234,431 acres by 2030.

We also expect 775,850 new people in the area, and 339,975 new households.

Total new households:Total Acres in Central MD: 2,309,977Total Developed Acres 2002: 864,305 (~37%)Total Developed Acres 2030: 1,098,786 (+10%)

The size of that red box (new developed acres) can change.

Regardless of how big the red box is, it also makes a big difference how it is allocated across the landscape, which can affect its size too.Currently this is the states development plan for Central MD.

Yellow areas = growth areas defined by local governments Green areas = federal and protected lands.

The balance are neither growth areas or protected areas.Increased development pressure, particularly in Harford and Cecil Counties. More on that in a moment

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