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Brasile e il Sudamerica:
Politica, economia e società
Andrés MalamudIstituto di Scienze Sociali, Università di Lisbona
Seminario: L’industria del lusso in BrasileAncona, 24 settembre 2009
Caratteristiche fondamentali del Brasile Caratteristiche fondamentali del Brasile e il sottocontinente sudamericanoe il sottocontinente sudamericano
Scala (territorio, popolazione, distanze)
Tendenze (stabilità politica e crescita economica)
Opportunità (sviluppo sicuro e piattaforma mondiale)
I BRIC: Brasile, Rusia, India e CinaI BRIC: Brasile, Rusia, India e Cina
Categories BRAZIL Russia India China
Area 5th 1st 7th 3rd/4th (disp)
Population 5th 9th 2nd 1st
GDP (nominal) 10th 8th 12th 3rd
Exports 21st 11th 23rd 2nd
Imports 27th 17th 16th 3rd
Received FDI 16th 12th 29th 5th
Foreign exchange reserves 7th 3rd 4th 1st
Number of mobile phones 5th 4th 2nd 1st
Number of internet users 5th 11th 4th 1st
Brasile e i suoi vicini:Brasile e i suoi vicini:prospettive comparateprospettive comparate
Brasile: sistema politico frammentato…Brasile: sistema politico frammentato…ma stabile (2006)ma stabile (2006)
GNI per capita, 1975-2005 (selected countries)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
GNI p
er c
apita
(in
dolla
rs)
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Ethiopia
Korea, Rep.
Spain
United States
Unione Europea: evoluzione delle economieUnione Europea: evoluzione delle economie
European Union: GNI per capita, PPP (1975-2005)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Cu
rre
nt
inte
rna
tio
na
l do
llars
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
America Latina: evoluzione delle economieAmerica Latina: evoluzione delle economie
Latin America: GNI per capita, PPP (1975-2005)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Cu
rre
nt
inte
rna
tio
na
l do
llars Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela, RB
PopulationIndigenous
%GDP PPP GNI PPP/PC
Inequality (Gini)
X + M / GDPEconomy in
FTAA
Economy in subregional
blocUnited States 299 1 13201 44260 41 22 68 85Canada 33 2 1140 34610 33 59 6 7Mexico 104 30 1201 11410 46 60 6 8
Brazil 189 1 1708 8800 57 22 9 71Argentina 39 1 617 15390 51 38 3 26Uruguay 3 0 37 11150 45 45 0 2Paraguay 6 5 30 5070 58 82 0 1
Chile 16 5 208 11270 55 65 1
Colombia 46 3 362 7620 59 38 2 43Venezuela 27 2 202 7440 48 53 1 24Peru 28 45 187 6080 52 41 1 22Ecuador 13 25 61 4400 54 61 0 7Bolivia 9 55 27 2890 60 62 0 3
Panama 3 6 27 7680 56 0 9Costa Rica 4 1 48 10770 50 0 16Nicaragua 5 5 21 4010 43 0 7El Salvador 7 1 38 5340 52 0 12Honduras 7 7 26 3540 54 0 9Guatemala 13 40 61 4800 55 0 20Dominican Rep. 10 1 84 8290 52 0 28
Cuba 11 1Haiti 9 4 14 1490 59 0(Puerto Rico) 4 1
Caratteristicheregionali
1.- Mexico and Central America
Growing share of manufactured exports
2.- South America
Prevalence of resource-based goodies (agriculture and/or mining)
3.- Caribbean countriesSpecialization based on services (tourism and finance)
MERCOSUR: Evoluzione del commercio regionale 1960-2006
Base de datos CEPAL
Millones de dólares y porcentajes
INICIO
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
comercio intrarregional % en el total
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
America Latina y ElCaribe
CAN
MERCOSUR
MCCA
CARICOM
Asia
NAFTA
UE
2000-2006
1990-1994
Commercio regionale ragruppato secondo le diverse strutture d’integrazione
Fuente: CEPAL, División de Comercio Internacional e Integración, sobre la base de información oficial
Il coefficiente del commercio
intrarregionalein UNASUR è del
18.7%
MERCOSUR: misure comparate
EU states, ordered by population
1. Germany2. France3. United Kingdom4. Italy5. Spain6. Poland7. Romania8. The Netherlands9. Greece10. Portugal11. Belgium12. Czech Rep.13. Hungary14. Sweden15. Austria16. Bulgaria17. Denmark18. Slovakia19. Finland20. Ireland21. Lithuania22. Latvia23. Slovenia24. Estonia25. Cyprus26. Luxembourg27. Malta
Random sample (millions)
Germany (82)
The Netherlands (16)
Latvia (2.2)
Estonia (1.3)
Equivalent population (millions)
Brazil (189)
Argentina (39)
[Venezuela (27)]
Paraguay (6)
Uruguay (3)
GDP PC ranking ($)
Argentina (15,390)
Uruguay (11,150)
Brazil (8,800)
[Venezuela (7,440)]
Paraguay (5,070)
MERCOSUR: Leadership regionali e performance a confronto
DimensionEUROPEAN UNION MERCOSUR
Funds to deal with regional asymmetries
CAP and Structural Funds: € 86,000 M in 2006
FOCEM: $ 100 M in 2008
Net contribution to regional budget
Germany: € 8,000 M in 2005 (0.39% of GNI)
Brazil: $ 60 M in 2008 (0.007% of GNI)
Judicial institutionalization Court rulings: 526 in 2004 (33 in 1968; 77 in 1969)
Dispute settlement rulings: 13 between 1991 and 2008
Parliamentary institutionalization
Malta 5 MEPs;Germany 99 MEPs.Increasing competences
Brazil 18 MMPs;Uruguay 18 MMPs.No competences
Legal transposition Supremacy of community law and direct effect
33% were not in force in 2006
Enlargement From 6 to 27 From 4 to… 4? (plus conflicts)
Brasile: il paese del futuro?Brasile: il paese del futuro?