Brunswick Region Brunswick Region Community AuditCommunity Audit

Planning Decisions Presentation

To the Coastal Counties Workforce Board and the Defense Employment and Transitions Steering Committee

March 16, 2006

Part I: OverviewPart I: Overview

Purpose of Community AuditPurpose of Community Audit

Focus on Workforce impacts of Base closing Connect the dots

– Impacts– Economy– Workforce– Training system– Community supports

Provide understanding as basis for strategy development

Sources of informationSources of information

Consultant– Military family survey– Interviews with growing

businesses– Interviews with impacted

businesses

Other primary sources– MDOL contractor survey– MDOL civilian worker

survey– MDOL job profile study– State Planning Office

impact analysis Secondary sources

– Census– MDOL data– Midcoast Comprehensive

Economic Development Strategy

– Base housing study

Level of uncertaintyLevel of uncertainty

Precision at this early date is unattainable– Base, business,

individual plans are still being set

– Research still going on But big picture can be

described Enough to shape

strategic thinking

Nature of event: Nature of event: mill and base closing comparedmill and base closing compared

Base and mill closingsBase and mill closings

Base Closing More Warning Secondary impacts

can be greater than direct job loss impacts

Valuable resources left for community to redevelop

Mill closing1. More sudden2. Direct job loss

impacts usually greater than secondary effects

3. Old mill usually less marketable, less community input

Phases of closing/redevelopmentPhases of closing/redevelopment

Pre-closing Closing Lull Redevelop

Years 2006-08 2009-11 2012-? 201(?) on

Public Committees Phase downBuild new infrastructure

PrivateMake plans for closing

Act on plansMake plans for new development

Act on plans

The complication ofThe complication ofBath Iron WorksBath Iron Works

Major private employer in region

Caught in “production gap” between DDG-51 and DDX

Creates challenge for regional economy, job training – even before BNAS closes

Part II: Closure ImpactsPart II: Closure Impacts

The range of effectsThe range of effects

Direct job losses Secondary jobs Retail Small businesses Housing Schools Workforce Retirement industry Developable land

The sequence of direct job lossesThe sequence of direct job losses

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total

Military 90 14 43 716 962 897 2,722

Civilian 11 0 2 2 49 468 532

Contract 4 1 2 32 42 40 120

Private 2 0 1 16 22 20 61

Total non-

military17 1 5 50 113 528 713

Serious effects not felt until 2010Serious effects not felt until 2010

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Private

Contract

Federal Civilian

Secondary job loss greater than Secondary job loss greater than direct civilian job lossdirect civilian job loss

713

1,440

Direct Indirect

$129 million in consumer spending by $129 million in consumer spending by military leaving region -- $80 million in military leaving region -- $80 million in

Bath-Brunswick storesBath-Brunswick stores

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

Thousa

nds

of d

olla

rs

Out of Region

On Base

Bath-Brunswick

Effect on the housing marketEffect on the housing market

Base housing available– 750 family units– 512 single person units

1,600 depart private market

$14 million in rent and mortgage payments gone

Short term problem– Housing disinvestment

Long term opportunity– Affordable housing

stock– Attract young workers

from Greater Portland

Some small businesses impactedSome small businesses impacted

Sample of interviews revealed:

Established, higher end Brunswick retailers/restaurants – under 3% of sales

Service and retail, especially oriented to young market – 5% to 20% of sales

Businesses catering to Base – 50% + of sales

How to help small businessHow to help small business

Business managers told us they could use:Market researchInformation on financial assistanceInformation on what is happening on the

Base

Most businesses optimistic about the future

Effect on schoolsEffect on schools

Over 1,000 elementary secondary students going

Embry-Riddle Aeronautics will lose 90% of students

Southern New Hampshire University will lose 30% of students

University College in Bath will lose 20% of students

Southern Maine Community College will lose less than 10%

Impact on the workforceImpact on the workforce

Health 15%

Educ 11%

Retail 16%

Service 12%

Clerical 13%

Mgmt 16%

700 military spouses work in the community– 2/3 full time

Another 700 are caregivers, or in school, or otherwise engaged

Long-term effect on retireesLong-term effect on retirees

3 out of 4 men over age 65 in region are veterans

Military retirees important to the workforce, the housing sector, and retail sector

1 in 5 military at BNAS would like to stay in or retire in area

BNAS exposed thousands to the midcoast over the years – will be a loss to tourism, retirement industries

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Military Veteran

Figure 3: Military and Veterans in Brunswick Micropolitan Area, 2000

Over 65

Under 65

But closure also offers a major asset of But closure also offers a major asset of land and infrastructure to the private land and infrastructure to the private

economyeconomy

In short, closure is both a short-term In short, closure is both a short-term problem and a long-term opportunityproblem and a long-term opportunity

Now we will look at the context of the area economy and workforce in

more depth

Part III: Business and IndustryPart III: Business and Industry

BNAS workers live close byBNAS workers live close by

BIW workers come from a wider areaBIW workers come from a wider area

2,62772

115

794

764

134All Other

1,076Top 10 Cities and Towns

County

ANDROSCOGGIN 1,076CUMBERLAND 966FRANKLIN 26

HANCOCK 2KENNEBEC 794

KNOX 113LINCOLN 651

OXFORD 89PENOBSCOT 2

PISCATAQUIS 1SAGADAHOC 1,661

SOMERSET 75WALDO 54

YORK 72

2006Total

WASHINGTON 0

Bath 504 Wiscasset 174Brunswick 407 Auburn 172Lewiston 336 Richmond 152Topsham 252 Bowdoin 139Woolwich 209 Gardiner 135

Impact area for studyImpact area for study

Primary impact area Brunswick, Bath, and surrounding towns

Secondary impact area to east, north, and west

Portland affected, but because of size of economy, effect not as great

Bath-Brunswick employment in 2004Bath-Brunswick employment in 2004Employees Sector

6,900 Manufacturing

5,130 Education and health

4,200 Government

4,010 Retail

2,960 Leisure and hospitality

2,170 Other services

1,880 Professional and Business Services

1,510 Construction

1,190 Financial activities

390 Information

340 Wholesale Trade

290 Real Estate/rental

280 Transportation/warehousing

140 Utilities

31,480 TOTAL

The importance of 4 key employersThe importance of 4 key employers

Area is heavily dependent on 4 key employers for about a quarter of all jobs

Example of their importance -- area median income is $33,000 with Bath Iron Works, and $29,000 without it

Bath Iron Works 5,000 to 6,000 employees

Brunswick Naval Air Station700 civilians, 2,700 military, 1,400 reservists

Bowdoin College 1,000 to 1,200 employees

Mid Coast Hospital 700 to 800 employees

Issue at Bath Iron WorksIssue at Bath Iron Works

BIW in between ships – finishing production of DDG-51, doing design for DDX

No construction scheduled for DDX before 2009

BIW has slowly laid off production workers in 2004-5

High-paying jobs hard to replace

Businesses still investingBusinesses still investing

New Target, Lowe’s stores openThe Highlands at Topsham continues to

growBowdoin College continues to invest and

expandMid Coast Fiber, Mainely Knobs, Applecart

Press, Disk Media, and others expanding

Composite materials offers the Composite materials offers the promise of a new growth sectorpromise of a new growth sector

Cluster of composite materials businesses in area – BIW, Harbor Technologies, BTI, Hodgdon Yachts, Monolite Composites, Tex Tech Industries

North Star Alliance designed to help these businesses grow

In summary...In summary...

The region has strengths in defense, real estate, education, health, and retail – but is heavily dependent on a few employers

Composites offers a potential growth sector for the future

Aviation-related uses at the Base may offer additional growth opportunities – but it is too early to say what kind

Part IV: The WorkforcePart IV: The Workforce

6 of 7 in official labor force6 of 7 in official labor force

Work for others27,995

Own, self-employed

4,644

In family business

94

Brunswick labor force is relatively Brunswick labor force is relatively young (2000 Census)young (2000 Census)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

Population

Labor force

January 2006 EmploymentJanuary 2006 Employment

Employed32,41095.3%

Unemployed1,5904.7%

Bath-Brunswick labor force has Bath-Brunswick labor force has more education (2000 Census)more education (2000 Census)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

No HSdegree

HS degree Somecollege

4-yeardegree

Graduatelevel

LMA

Maine

Strengths and weaknesses, Strengths and weaknesses, according to local employersaccording to local employers

Good computer skills (2 of 3 employers say it easy to

find computer-knowledgeable staff)

Committed to lifelong learning (47% plan to go back to school in coming years)

Half of new hires need basic skill remediation – math, writing, etc.

Some young employees lack “work skills,” reliability

Civilian workers at BNASCivilian workers at BNAS

Older – over half are 45 to 64Less formal education – 62% HS onlyIn protective services, administrative

support, maintenance, personal services occupations

Make about regional average wage -- $32,000

Outlook for BNAS workers mixedOutlook for BNAS workers mixed

The job outlook in Maine to 2012 is for faster-than-average job growth in 7 of the 8 primary occupational groups in which BNAS civilians work

But it may be hard to get comparable wages -- in 29 of top 41 occupations, wages at BNAS higher than same job elsewhere in Maine

Many BNAS workers interested Many BNAS workers interested in help for a career shiftin help for a career shift

41%36%

22%

34% 35%

Resume writing

OJTStart business

Career advice

Budgeting

Outlook for laid-off BIW workers Outlook for laid-off BIW workers is more challengingis more challenging

Of 16 job types in recent layoff, only 2 were in fields expected to grow in Maine in next seven years

For 7 of the 16 types, BIW salary ranges much higher than state averages

Experience to date – BIW workers salaries decrease by 17% when they move to a new employer

But there are related occupations But there are related occupations that workers can transfer to that workers can transfer to

BIW workers qualified to shift into high-demand occupations

Current training in:– Electrical– Carpentry– Machine tool– Nursing– Computer repair– Business management– Associate engineer

Retail workers will be affectedRetail workers will be affected

Most job impacts will be in retail sector

But this sector has 1,000 jobs (25%) turn over per year already

Retail chains continue to invest in area – so effect may be slower growth, not absolute loss

Workforce challenges Help small business

owners to start and grow retail businesses

Create career paths from sales to management in the retail sector

In summary...In summary...

Local workforce has many strengths But some young and new workers lack “job-

ready” skills BIW and BNAS workers have an interest in

retraining and new careers – especially since current jobs may not pay as much on outside

Workers are qualified to shift into careers that support local economic growth, like composites and construction

Part IV: Training CapacityPart IV: Training Capacity

The area has job growth potential... The area has job growth potential... It has workers needing retraining...It has workers needing retraining...

Does it also have the capacity to meet the need?

Three levels of capacityThree levels of capacity

The Public Education system

Higher Education

Public and private training resources

Effect on public schoolsEffect on public schools Brunswick Bath SAD 75: Topsham, Bowdoin,

Harpswell, Bowdoinham Voc 10: Brunswick, Topsham Bath Regional Voc Center Merrymeeting Adult Ed Bath Adult Ed

Will lose 1,000 students from a total of 8,400 – and nearly $1 million in federal aid

Effect on higher educationEffect on higher education

Embry-Riddle Aeronautics University – lose 90% of students

Southern New Hampshire University – lose 30%

University College, Bath – lose 20%

Southern Maine Community College – lose under 10%

Area employers use many Area employers use many training providers training providers

Employer rating of training quality (2001)

0 1 2 3 4 5

U Maine

Other

Private

State

Adult Ed

Trade

Poor (1) ..............Excellent (5)

Employers use

(in 2001)% using

Trade associations 60%

Private vendors 55%

Technical college 19%

Adult Ed 16%

State agency 16%

University system 11%

Other post-secondary

10%

Two training needs in regionTwo training needs in region

CONTENT Health care Construction trades,

services Composites Business services Retail Education

JOB READINESS Work ethic Basic work skills Basic production skills Job seeking skills Entrepreneurial skills

In summary...In summary...

There are growing occupations in the region that pay well for which training would be helpful

The Base re-use will benefit from aggressive workforce training efforts

Because of the importance of trade and professional organizations, and the shortage of public funds, public-private partnerships will be essential to success in new training initiatives

Part V: Community Services Part V: Community Services

Questions Base Closing raises Questions Base Closing raises for Community Servicesfor Community Services

Who will serve the military retirees once Base services are discontinued?

What will happen to groups who have benefited from the employment of spouses, and volunteer help from military families?

How will the demographic change affect the mix of social services needed?

The Base services are leavingThe Base services are leaving

The Base now provides: Medical clinic Dental clinic Commissary Convenience shopping Personnel Support Credit Union Family Services Center Gym, track, golf course YMCA memberships

Effect on retirees Most get medical and

dental care off-base. The loss of shopping and

recreation will reduce quality of life, but can be replaced

The loss of Personnel Support and Family Services and banking will be more difficult to replace.

Effect on familiesEffect on families

Unemployment increases are associated with increases in alcohol and drug use and abuse

Workers will need counseling through the period

35%

20%15%

10%

27%

Counseling needs of civilian workers

Impacts to community programsImpacts to community programs

From departing employees and families

Hospitals Martins Point Health

Care Bath YMCA

From lost volunteers Midcoast Red Cross Big Brothers/Big

Sisters Girl Scouts Sexual Assault

Support Services

Gains and losses of buildingsGains and losses of buildings

The Naval Sea Cadets will lose their building on the Base, and will look to the reserves or others remaining on site to help them out.

People Plus is looking at reusing Base housing for affordable housing for seniors

The aging of the communityThe aging of the community

The Base closing will remove many young families from the area

Their housing may be reoccupied by retirees and older families

This may alter the mix of community services needed over the long term

In summary...In summary...

There will be increased needs in the transition for civilian workers who are laid off, and for military retirees to adjust

There will be reduced capacity from some agencies as a result of losses of workers, volunteers, and donations

Over the longer haul, the composition of community services may have to adjust to cope with an aging population

What’s next?What’s next?

Creating strategies

Questions and discussionQuestions and discussion