FOR RELEASE OCT. 12, P. M.

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

_W_A_S_H_I_N_G_T_O_N_._o_._c_. _________ «~ B. SEPTEMBER 19 51

Approved by the Outlook and Situation Board! October 3. 1951

CONTENTS

S ll1llliZ. ry . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . .. . . . . 1 Output and Employment .•...•. 4 Income and Related Factors .• 5 Commodity Prices .•••.•••••.• 6 Agricultural Exports •.•.••.. 9 Farm Income • • . • • . • . • . • . . • . . • 11 Livestock and Meat .•.•.••..• 11 Dairy Products •.•...••....•. 12 Poultry and Eggs •.•.•••••... 13 Fats, Oils, and Oilseeds ..•. 14

Corn and Other Feed ....... -15 Fruit ..•...•.•.••..•.•.••.. 16 Wheat •....•.•.....•....•.. 16 Commercial Truck Crops •.... 17 Potatoes and Sweetpotatoes .18 Dry Edible Beans and Peas •. 18 Cot ton ..•.•.•.•.....•.•..•• 19 Wool , " o ••••••••••••••••••••• 20 Tobacco •.....•.•.•.••..•.•. 21

SUMMARY

Economic activity in September continued at a high level. High employ­ment and wage rates resulted in personal income payments in July at an annual rate of almost 252 billion dollars. This was about 13 percent above a year ago. However, despite record levels of economic activity, consumer buying has moderated since the first quarter of this year. Consumer expenditures in the second quarter were at an annual rate of 202 billion dollars, down 6 billion from the first quarter rate. Retail sales reported for August were up 2 per­cent from July, after seasonal adjustment, and slightly above the second quar­ter level. Sales at department stores increased a little again in August. There is, however, no evidence of a substantial pick-up in sales for the third quarter. Reduced consumer demand and continued high output of consumer goods resulted in inventory accumulation in the second quarter at a record annual rate of over 14 billion dollars. Although businesc inventories continued to rise in the third quarter, the rate of accumulation was considerably slower and the build-up was primarily in defense goods-in-process. Inventories of finished goods held by retailers and wholesalers continued the decline of re­cent months.

SEPT:El-ffiER 1951 -2-

ECONOJ.IIC FACTORS ..AFF.B:CTING AG-IliCULTUBE

Item Unit or : _____ 1~9"t~o~----+-----~,---~1~9711~--~~------base

period Year Aug. Mey June July

Industrial production 1} • , Total •.••••.••••..••••.•.•..• :1935-39;100: 200

All manufactures •••••••••.• : do, ' 209 Durable goods .............. : do, 237 Nondurable goods, .......... : do, 187

Minerals, ••.••••••••..••••••• ; do, l4S

Construction activity 1/ , . Contracts, total ............. : 1935-39=100: 514 Contracts., residential ••••••• ; do, ' 748

Wholesale prices gj • All commodities .............. : 1926::100 ~ 162

All commodities except farm: and food ............. : do, 153

Farm pro d:uc t s .............. : cl.o, 170 Food ••••••••.•••••••••••••• ; do, 166

Prices received and paid by , , farmers 3} • '

Prices received, all prod •••• : 1910-1llo:100: 256 Prices paid, interest, taxes ; •

and wage rates ••••••• : do. 255 Parity ratio ................. ; do. 100

Consumers' :9ric e fJ liJ : : Total ......................... 1935-39=100, 172

Food ....................... : do, • 204 Nonfood ••••••••••••••••.•.• ; a.o, 154

Income • Nonagricultural peyments 5./, .; Bil. dol.

Income of industrial \·rorkers J./~ 1935-39=100~

Production worker pay rolls E).~ do.

Weekly earnings of factory workers gj ,

All manufacturing •.••••••••.• : Dollars Durable goods •.••••••••.•.• : do, llTonchlrable goods, .••••• , • , .; do,

]Jnp1 O"JI!l en t • Total civilian 21 .......•.... ;

Nonagricultural 21, ........ : .Agricultural 21 •.......•..• ;

Government finance (Federal)l/.:

Millions do, do,

Income, cash operating •..•• ,.: Mil. dol, Outgo, cash operating ........ : do, Net cash operating income or:

outgo ...................... ; do.

206.6

369

396

59.23 63.19 54.66

6o.o 52.4 7.5

209 218 247 195 159

166

156 178 175

267

257 104

173 210 154

208,6

392

420

60.32 64.33 55.65

62.4 54.2 8,2

3,524 3,009

+ 514

223 233 276 198 165

183

172 200 187

305

283 108

185 227 164

229.0

424

456

64.55 69.39 58.01

61,2 53.8 7.4

4,148 5,154

-1,006

222 232 275 198 166

652 708

170 199 186

301

282 107

185 227 164

230.1

429

464

65.32 70.39 58.47

61.8 53.8 8,0

7,367 5,223

+2,144

213 223 266 189 156

528 730

182

169 194 186

282 104

186 228 164

229.2

422

453

64.56 68.92 58.78

Aug,

218 228 269 194 165

505 711

178

167 191 187

282 104

186 227 164

62.6 54.9 7.7

Annual. d.e.ta for the years 1929-49 a:9pear on page 32 of the April 1951 issue of The Denand and Price Situation. lJ Federal Reserve Board, construction activity converted to 1935-39 base, 2/ U, S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1/ U, S, Department of Agriculture, 'BUreau of .Agricultural Economics, to convert prices received and prices paid, interest, ta,xes and wage rates to the 1935-39 base, multiply by .93110 and .79872 respectively. liJ Consumers' price index for moderate-income families in large cities. r:;/ U, s. Department of Commerce re-f vised figures, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, 21 U, 'S'. Departnent of Commerce, Bureau o the Census. 1} u. S, Department of Treasur<J, Data for 1950 are on average monthly oasis.

S:EPTEMBJT~R 1951 - 3 .

Tlle relatively Hghter d.e;:nand foT many consumer g·->Od.s (1u:rlr:g tho svm-· mer was accqmpan16!d 'by a gradual decJine .in the _geuera.'J. ldval of whol:Jr:Jale {.!rice~ which_ lri 'la.t® S~?ntember was 4 p8:cc,:.,nt beJ:ow the h·igh jn mi./~··M..a:cch. Pii.nes n:;~ce~v.;;Jd by fa:cwers· averaged '( perc_ent 1ov:-~Jr in ml<l-·S~ptt:~m~or t.han in mid-February. Ci·ops av~ragecl 16 perc~nt beJ.nw mid -February JI)Vt-J.s, larg.'-'lY a r~flecti0ri .of this y@e.r :; s .large production, Pr'l.ces o: HVMto~k end .UV€1Stock pr1)(lucts wer~ only sl:t13ht1y lower· in -8C1ptember than in F~b:rua.ry, · \~hol~sale prJ.cer> of industr1.al cornmodi tles he.ve decline~ .. about 4 p~1resnJ::. sina~ t:b·z->ir peak .in ro.fd-Mar'ch 1 with ct sharp drop in textU~ prtc~s and mo!il.f"rFl.to f~,)clJn~s rin· prices of bllJ1i:Jins materials and of chemicals. R@teU p:rlcc;s, as :c~pr~·­sF~ntec1 by 'th.:;; BLS index of consumer prJces anc. the lJJ',::I: :ind~x of p:rlt;&s po.id. by: fanners·, including lrite:ro~st, tin~s, and fal'm wage ra t~s,. aro at or closo to" tl:ie h-il?')ls of the year, The parity ratio · wh.i.ch had rj.lilGn to 113 in lt1 0bru·· ary, ·.nas :1_03 :in Sc;.pteinber. ·

· · Prospects in earJ.y Septembs:l:' lndicatC'ld farm ou:t;put :'or salG am\ h0.m.~ . consumption. in 1951 at ~. record ·leve1 of close to 45 perc~nt al.•ov~ 1935·- 3?

and some. '-~ or 5 percent above ·last y~ar. Industrial prod.uction in kJ.gust vaG . up 5 poi.nts. f:rom. the J.ow l8Vf:.!1 jn July but still was 5 points bv1ow tnQ T(l­

c~mt P0f-llc of ~23 ( 1935-39=100) in April 1951. The decl:J.n~ rc<~flocts p:-ima.rlly materiaJ.s restrJ.ct1on9 ·for some durablQ ·goods, i.ncl.ueing automobil@s. anri

. p~o~uctJon ct~t··backs in s0me ind.ustrios because of an !f;asing ri~QJJB.l~.d and. ample invontory stocks c':Jf many consumer goods. '

Ri.s1.ng personal tncomes record deme.nt by buslness for pl.ant arHi e(]uip­m~nt ant r·J si.ng. requir~ments for daf~~1se should as surf- a cuntinuing strong ti~mar.Li:'l. for most goo&s .~nd. servbes. How~vBr, the rapid bui.1d-up o.f in6.nstrial produqtt:vq; · 9a:pactty; the s~bstantlal ir..ventories of many consuner goo~~:s, and i?h~ prospectiv® record output of farm -products should. _s<>.rve to Ill6d~r<:~.tfi; any upw~rd prc;.)ssur€1 or) pricM over the next few months.

Q!-2.::1'@1<?2-J.tY.. .:U.eb.12..sh t s

.. Fl9g sle .. ughte::' . th:t.s y8ar i.s exp~ct~d to cantinu~~ abovo last yQar J and td r&ael'l its p10ak in. .Dec~mb8r. · R~cently, prlc.:'s have be0n bf)Jo·~r a yiilar Gar­li..ar a~d for. t.h~, s~?as.on nio.y average a. little Joss than J.ast fall. gat_iJ:.2 sJ:aught"'·:r, \rh:i.ch :ls currently beiow last ycsa.r, should reach o. p~ak soc.n. Catth -pr:i.C.;l3 are P.JXpected to contjnu!ll fairly steady. althougl\ some wea.~ing BIB-Y oceur at ·um~s of h~avi~st market1nss. Prices r~ce:i.ved by fo~;:rm~~rs toT whol~. !!!ilk cout;:i.nu.e to rise. aef.:l,sonally. ;§gg pric01s hav€l r~Dc~<".~.r.td. from th(3 W.t.i.d ·S~pt~1mb(Ar · hlgh. lovQJ., and may have r<'!achr,,d th!9::.r SC~asonal :PA9-k. Output of ed1'.2.J.i~. yegt)tal2_le :;ils :J.n the year beginning Octo·b~r 1951 may ·toi:,e.l about lC} pe::.:-·Ge~,;t 1?-I'ger than the record 1.950-51 production O.f 4. 4 billion poU;'l(.iS, porn p:dces rec.:mtly have b'een above the support h'•vol. F9e.d pricos c';.uJ.-il'lg

the comrng y0a~ wUJ. reflE<ct .the prospective strong &emanQ. for fo®6. and. oup­~ort !>rices abov~ those fo;r· th~ 1950 crop, App1~2_ an~, srapes 'will )o lowor 1r1 pde.; this year bQC{luse o.f large.r supp.liC~s, ·and. orans~s ant Z:r.§:'RSJ~ shoula. d0cline seasonally l:;l~g:l.nnicg in October. Ave.l"ago pric&e. re~oi vcd 11y f'nrmer.s f0r all 7!'h~at were a Jittlt-~ b{:llow the national av8rkl.gli> lAar: \dv~l in So[ltembl3r', lielatively short supplies of· commEJrciE~l truck 0_:co.Ps for .fr;~sh )11JU­

b;t thls fall and current strong dt!;rna.nd are exp<:1ctr,;(l to result. i;r. subs-tantially hj_ghlir :prices this fall than· last. ·Cotton prices movl)tl slowly upwar·\~ in. 3t~'9t­mnb;;.r aft.er falling to near the Joan l.evel. Averago pric0s r~coivf.)J). liY f&.:t'In;-:Jrs for _Sh~ woC>l in mid:--September d@clined for the sixth month in succession.

·Total supply. of ~-£B£_ed tobacco for th0 l95Q··51 rna.rk{:}ting ye;ar ·~rill 'Pe l'.t a rocord. lev Ell. and. the. supply of 11urle;r will b.o slightly larg~r- trum in 195:J-51.

SEPTEI~ER 1951

OUTPUT .AND Jill1PLOYl~EH T

Industri.nl nroduc~_!,gn w."'.s UJ.J sl.ightly_ in Aueust from the se~,sonnlly low July lev.ol, but f·dled to r(Jg.".in the 1-ic.rch-Jvnc level. The Fodero.l . ReserVe Bo~rd index of industri['.l production, ndjusted for senson~l vnri• ntion, in August wo.s 218 (1935-39:.:::100) 1 compnre(i \•Ti th 213 in July <md 222 in June. The index·etood nt 209 during Au.~st of l~st ycaro

The out-_put of durnblo mMufr~cturors • L'.t 269 per cent of 1935-39, was down o.bout 2 pbreont from Juno. Tho· combined August outpu·t of producers' equipment, including defon:so'items, hold stcL'.dy nt the hi-.gh level reo.chod lnte in the spring. However, production of con sumcr clut't'.blo goods can "!;inued loss thnn in June nnd o".rlier poLlk months. Steel output .in August con- · · tinuod close to recent highs. While motor vehicle output roqovorod slightly, o.ctivi ty in the o.utomobile industry wr•.s still below Juno, l~rgely boc~us e of restrictions on tho use of criticnl metcls. Tho lktionnl Production . Authority'' recently' f'.~ounced n. further cut in steel ~lotmonts for o..utomo• bile m[lllufncturors 9 \'tho will be limited during t:r.e fourth qu::ti'tor to 60 pe:r­cent of tho o.vern.gc quarterly rn.to of use in tho br,,so period .(first h...,lf of 1950)o It is estimntod thr>..t. this a.llotmont will permit n'production of nbout 1.1 million cnrs in. tho fourth qunrtor of this yon.r, COIDpL'.IOd' \'lith 1. 7 million in the. sa.mo quO.rter of 1950. Lumber output in August was nlso slightly loss thnn in Juno, while activit~ in most other durnblo gpods industries showed little chnnge"

Although recovering some\'rhc.t from July, c.ctivity in textile mills in August wn.s bolO\<! June levels n.s demnnd for textiles r.omninod relatively wonk. Production of chemicals ana chemical proclucts contmuod to rise, nnd output of rubber o.nd rubber products f1lmost ree;~~nod, tho June levolo Production of nondurn.ble goods ns C. whole ,.,,,,s 2 ·oercont less thon in June nnd fro.ctiono.lly d.o\m from August n yec.r onrlior.

Production of mlnoro..l. s in Au2,'Ust · follovtod n similn.r '(Jn.ttor 1 recovo~· ing pnrtiDJ.~y ns sof.t coal minors returned to \'Jork from July vnco.tionso · Crude petroleum production rose slightly, sottine L\ no,., record. At J.65t the index of toto.l production of minera.l s wo.s 6 percent nbovo July o.nd. n little below J~e •.

July mnrkod another incroo.so in mnnu:ro.cturor·s unfillod orders. ~ho bn.cY....log of 55.6 biliion doll['.rs nt tho ond of July \'lD.S 1 billi"Nl groo.ter thnn o. month before, o.s so.los during the m·onth declined more tho..n did tM volume of new orders plo.cod \'lith mnnufo.cturers. t'lhilo non-durn.blo eood:.J nga.in doclinod by o.lmost h .. ..,lf e. billion d.olla.rs during tho month, thooo of durnble goods mo.nuf£'.cturors ndvn.nced o. 'totnl of 1.5 billion dpllo.rs. Moou.fo.cturors' inventories,· ost:i.mntod Cl.t 4o.4 billie~ dollo.r.s, nftor o.d.justment fo~ senoonn.l fnctors, were up o.bout 1 porcont during July. Tho rise wa.s loss tl;l.nn ho.lf o.s largo n.s thos o of sovornl previous months o.nd centered nlmost ontircly in tho durn.:blo-e;o ods industries, \V"hot:o virtunlly all groups rogistorod gnins. Inventories in the nondur~blc goods in­dustries were prCl.cticnlly uncho.ngod. from June.

Tota.l construction oxpcndi turos in Aut,ust ,,ore up n. lit he from July, rising o.round 1 vercont, from 2,770 million d.olltl.l's to 2,862 million. Tho Aug~?.st 1951 construction outlay wo.s only 0.5 1)orcont under l.nst yoo:r but it rcpresonts ~ significnntly snnllor physicdl volume of work put in pl'n.ce in vio\'t of price incron.sos since Auc;ust 1950.

SEPTEMBER 1951 .-. 5 -

Total. private. outlays. :.('or _new cons~~uction declined fractionally during August to. 1,8.65 rni.lHon dollar·s but wer~ almost 11 percent below Aug11st last year." The sli.ght de~line_ from July was due almost entirely to a CC?ntraseaeonal drqp of 2 }'eroent in pJ.~i~q.te residential building:~ and an 11 perqent · decli~e :i~ commerc.ial buj.lding~ Private home building expendi­tures were 'es'timateq. 'at 920 million dollars~ compared with 1;322 mil.Lion in August 1950, a drop. o£ 30.perc~nt i11 dollar volume alone. Reduced activity in thes·e a:re.as co~tinues. to reflect. the effects of restrictions on building. Industrial construction r~gistered another rise (4 percent) in August to a level double that of a year ago •

. . An i.n.crep.se· from July of .4.2 percent in public construction outlays

to 937 miJ,lion dol,lars i.n August more than :Offset the de.cline in private construction expenditures.. Atomic energy projects, military projects. and highway cons:trtiction accounted for m0st of the- riEte. Public construction this August wae 29 percent .. n.bove the 727 million doll-ars spent for this purpose in August 1950.

About 85,000 new non-farm dwelling units were placed under construc­tion during August. This total was slightly less than the 86,000 units begun in July and was 40 pe~c~nt below the A~gust .level last year~ An increase from July'of about 3 percent in tho number of private housing starts, which totale.d 841 000 in August, was more than offset by a decline ;in the number of pUplie units begun during the month, resul'\iing in the reduction in total ho11.sing. starts from July. t.o August. The greater activity in private housing constr1,1ction duripg August occurred'in virtually all sectiona of the country. While credj,t restrictions and allocation of .critical materials will result in total non-farm dwelli.ng starts for 1951 well bQlow 1950P the'75$,000 units begun through August of this year indicate. that the original Government goal of 850,000 housing starts for the year will be exceeded. Total starts may be. around a million units for tho year.

Anoth~r.r~cord for total ciYilian employment was set during August, when the number of workers employed increased. t00'2.6 million ·from 62.5 mil­lion.in JulY. All of the· rise was attributable.to exransion of non-agricul­tural employment from 54.6 million to 54.9 million, a ne:w high record.. The inc;:rense in .this category is accounted for mainly by increased .factory emploY!nent ·in both dofense and 'civl:lin.n productiqn. .

Unemployment. in August d·ec;t;i..ned ·to an estimated 1.6 million, about 300,000 less than in July, and 900,000 below the August 1950 total" The rate of unemployment (unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force), at. 2~? 1 wa-s the lowest sinco the end of tho· ~nr. · The decline reflected both the slight rise in employment, and a declinoa in the civililln labor force of an estimated 200,000 from 64.4 million in July to 64.2 in August, as students began to leave their summer jobs.

INCOME AND REIA·TED FACTORS

Personal income 'during· July was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 251 .. 6 billion dollars. It :was up only s.lightly from June, but was 28.9 billion greater than.in July'l950. lhe s.light incre~se from June to July came primarily from the season.al rise in· fa.r,m inc:)me. Agricultural marketings were substan­tially 'grea.,ter than· in. the pr\'3vious month, !flare than offsetting-somewhat lower Prices recej:~~d for farm products. .

• I ,>

SEPTEMBER 1951 ... 6 -

Mainly because of lower production•worke~·amployment and a drop in average weekly hours of wo.ck in· durable goods .manufacljuriug during July, total wage and salary receip!:is declined sJ.:lghtly to an estimated annual rate of 166el billion dollars1 · ebmpe,red. with 143.2 billion· in July last year. Total wage receipts in nondurable good:s industries were virtually uno~nged from June,, continuing the relative stability noted 1~ this sector since the !irst of· the year. Government pay roll disbursements continued to rise, reflecting, for the most part, a further increase in the size qf the· defense establishment.

Sa~ at de;eartment store~ scored a:aother slight gain 1n August. The Federal Reserve Board's seaaonaJ.ly adJUSted index for that month was 316 (1935·39=100),, At ·this level sales were 2'percent abo·ve July and 5 p~rcent above June, but 6 peroent below August 1950, when anticipatory buying TAaa s-till ·influencing sales. Dollar sales for January through August this yee.r totaled. 4 percer~t gr-eater than for the ee.me period last year. However, when adjusted for price change, the indicated volume of sales showed ~ decline of roughly 6 percent from the a~e period a year ago,

Total ~etail sales during August, after adjustment for seasonal factora, registered a-2-:percent gain over July and were slightly above the second quarter·average, although 5 percent below August a year'ago. The home furnishings and automo·i;i ve gr-oups, up 7 and 4 percent, respoc-­tively,· showed the largest relative gains from July to August. Almost all gl'oups increased their sales during the month, notable exceptions being apparel stores, down 2 percent, and building materials and hard­ware, down 1 percent. Durable goode sales, on the whole, were up slightly more than those. of nondurable goods.

Consumer installment debt during August rose 155 million dollars to an estimated total of 13 biilion, reversing a 57 million dollar decline in the total outstanding in July., Reflecting the liberalization of credit terms provided for by r~cent amendments to the Defense Production Act of 1950~ all types of inetalJ.Jn,ent debt itu;reased dUl'·ing the month. Auto­n:obile sale credit, es"tJ,.ma.ted at 4.1 billiun dollars; l-ras up 73 million from July ~nd 27 million from August 1950. l'Toninstallment credit at the end of August totaled 6.2 billion doJ.lar.s1 16 million above July and 413 million above August 1950o All categories showed increases, the largest being registered by charge accoUnts, which ~ose 7 million dollars.

Totc.l short· term indobtedness of conS'llDlers a.t thG end. of Augil.st .. was 19.3 billio~.dol1ar~, up 171 million from JU17 and 464 million nbove A.u.gu.st last y&>ar~ · ,

COMMODITf PRICES ·

The general ~~ price level in mid-September was up very slightly from late August. During the week ending Septe.mbor 25, the BLS we~kly index of wholesale prices was 177.1 (1926•100) 1 a gain of.0~2 per· cent for the mon~. 'All components ehowed·increaaes, with the exception o~ text~le PfOducta, which dropped sharply by 4.3 percent. Farm products prices rose 1.6 percent during September, and· foods advanced 0.6 percent. Although there '\<rere gains among all industrial comm.odi ties with the exception of textiles, ranging from 1.2 percent for' metals and metal ·prod• ucte to 0.3 percent for building materials. the average for all other than

SEPTEMBER 1951 .. 7 -

The general wholesale price level during the week ending September 25 wae 4.2 per~ent higher tr.LB.n a,t the end of September last year_ .Aruong the industrial commodities, ~hemjcals and alljed products and metals and produete aecow1ted for the great;ef:l:c rela·!iive price changes, Prioea of building .materiale were only a :t.1.ttle hi@ler than a year ago 1 and textiles were 0,7 percent below September 1950. P.ricea of far.m prod.uets and feeds for the week ending September 25 stood at 16 and 16~1 percent, reepectively1 above late September a year ago.

Table l.,- Group indexes of wholesale prices, week ended September 251

1951 with compa~iaons (1926~~10~0~)------------~-~~~~~~~~

; :Week ended Sept, 25) l951 Week : Week : Week ~ Week ~ p~rcentage change from

Croup ended : ended ~ ended : ended :Week : \-leek : Week

f. Sept. 25, :Aug" 28, :Sept, 26 1 ~June 27,: ended ~ ended :ended ~ 1951 ~ 1951 : 1950 z 1950 ;Aug~ 28~ ~Sept, 26,.;une 27,

--------~- __;______ 1951 1950 : 1950_

All commoditlea

Farm products Foods All other than farm and food

0 •

Textile prod.ucte ~ Fuel and lighting materials

Meta::. a and: pr~e.~,·.CtE1: Building ~bteriala 'Jheruioa1s and.

e.llieC. products

17'7 ol

ls;L8 18806

165o2 160.9

138o6 190.5 222_,3

141.,1

BQreau of LalDor Statistics:

176~8

188.7 187.4

165,9 168"1

137 "8 l88ft2 221.7

140.0

169»9

179e4 176~4

160.4 162.1

13~,.1

177.5 220 0 4

130,1

157.4

165.4 162.4

149~2 13'"( .. 3

132.8 171,9 203~7

114~5

+ .2

+1 .. 6 + .6

...... 4 -4.3

+ .6 +1.2 + .. 3

+ .8

+4.2

+6 .. 9 +6.9

+2.6 +7.3 1" o9

+12,5

+16.0 +16.1

+10,7 +17.2

+23,2

Avera e pr1~es rece:Lved by farmers were off fract1or..a11y in mid-September~ At 291 · · 9l0-14=100J":" the BAE-·index of average prices received by farmers in September was down 1 point from mid.-Augu,st. Prices of most crops de1:)lined, part.ic~ 'C!larl.v of truck crops. The price d~crease for all ~rope combined averaged about 2 percent. Prices received for livestock and p~oducts inereaeed fractionally. Price rises for :poultry and eggs and dairy prod.ucta were offset by declines in meat aniraa.ls and wool_, whi·~h fell 1 per~ent and 13 percent, respectively.

Average prices receivAd by farmers in mid-September 1951 were up 7 percent from the same month in 1950n The increase resulted primarily from higher prices for livestock and livestock :p1•oducts, as prices of ~'rope ae a group were dowu 2 per• cent from a year ago. Considerably higher prices for truck erops, feed grains and hay~ and "o"ther vegeta'Qlea" {up 28, 11 and 18 per~ent1 respectively) were more than Otfaet by lower prices for cotton, fruit and oU~bearing crops. The average :P:t-iee received by farmers for cotton d.e01ined 3 per~ent from August this year,and ~,a 16 :per~ent below the Septembel· 1959 level~ Food gredna prices in September ~_.,e,..agecl 5 Pe-r:~.;ent above the same month last yoor; while oil~ bearing crops were d.own 5 per .. ~~nt. Livestock and livestock product prices in mid.,Septeml:·er were 13 percent ·~gher than a year ago, The largest in~reaae 126 percent, was registered for prices or Poultry and eggs, with dairy products, meat animal and wool prices up 1~,10, and 8 percent, respectively~

SEPTEMBER 1951 ,.. 8 -

Table 2.- Group indexes of .Pr:tce.s .recely~d .by fp.rmers, ?~ptem:t>er 15, 1951 · with .compar.Jsonr-> · · . . .. .. . ., .. > '.

------.,.._.,..,..· ._. -~---·----+'- (l<11Q-14-100) . - ,_:. ---~. · · :8 ·t ·.1"' ·:A .... ~~= :8 t 15 : Septem~er 15,.1951 percent-

Gro11p ., ,' ep • h. ug · j' ~ eP. • '· aae ch8,""'J'e from . ']C""J , 10"'1' ' 1950 ' . t.;> ~I' : 'h · · ,. u:_/) • , , :Aug', 15, 19)1: Sept • 15 Ll-920._

.. grains 233 234 22J_ JJ + 5 Food .. . . ' ... ' .....

Feed grains and ha;y ' ... 216 215 194 ,, ?J .+, .11 ., .

'283 336 J6 Cotton . .. . . . ' 2')1 - 3 I I I t I I I I I t I I t t I I I

'I'obacco . 1J.23' '·!+ 30 '-128 - 2 l I I I I I t I t I I I I I I J I . OiJ.-bearing ~;rop9 .. · .... 28f3 291~ 303 - .. 2' 5

j Fruit ••• I '; •••••••• M • •••• : 201 ?07, 217 .. 7 Truck crops . . 161 181 126 -11 + 28

t I I t I ;f I I I t ' I

Other vegetables ..... ' . 192 '185 163 + 4. + 18 ' I •: .

All ·cro:ps ' . 239 24Lf 243 2 2 I I t I t f I I I I t t

... -:.·. ,, . 'Meat animals I I I t I I I I I I I 411 416. 372 - 1 ;-~-·. 10 Dairy products . . ·283 277 . 248 2 -t 14 . I I I • I • I I f

Poultry and eggs . 247 231 196 7 .. + 26 f' I I t t I I

·'376 8 Wool . .... · .......... ~ . ~ . : ~33 349 ~13 +

~~

. gj Livestod: and produ~t~ 337 336 298 I· 13

Cl\ops a.r.d livestock ' and products ...••... : 291' 292 272 1.1 + .7

L0SS than 0.5 -percent decrGaso, Less thlih 0.'5 percent increase. . ')'

' ' . ' ; . '

The BAE lnd.ex 0f prices .J?i!.id l!Y _;f;±rmerf~, l_nclud:i.:~ interer3t, 1;_~, ·and wage r_ates, dur1ng September rcmainf:Jd at 282 "[l:,;lC;-11t,"--lOO).fqr t~1e

fo.l}rth conr;;0cutive; month.· The index vm.s 8 psrcsnt higher .than a ye£J.r'ago; The plirity ratio of 103 (indox of pric0s received divided by jndox 0f prinea pnid,. interest taxes nnd wag0 rates) compares wlth 101+ 5.n ,July and Aur~ust, and 105 iq Septe;mb$r last. yEJFJ,r. ·

; ' , , 1 • • , 1 ' '

. _: · A~er~:a.e· .pi'ic.e( pcd.d b; ~Il 2.ons~ of m:oclerD.tEJ' incomes '-were· •Jn-. •· ' changed 'durtng August,, tp.e. index reirll1.in:tng at th,o July lev-el of 18'5.? (1935-

;39=100). "This' J.~-ye). )s (.3 percent above Au~~ust o. yon,r.ag,:,. Ferrt:J ros·s··, s'iightly; 'following tho rE,-cent mnenclmont to the Defense Produc liion· Ac't; 1::t!1d clothing prices ·were· nlsr) i.rp ·,slightly, as fllll linei3 wore, 'introduced': Aver­age food pricbs were down a· fraction · ns fruHs and. voeetables Hero su8.::wn­ally plentifu~, ·h_ut most .other food£, potably E;ggs; worE: up'.' 'l'f'lCJ ·larr;(,st price chanse ·~a~ in ·hguse fu:rnish.ings., wld.ch· dropped. .o-.8 'J:le:rcent f'rum JUly to August . · · . · . . -- · , · . · .. ·

I • i o !

.. · ~.!_erage prfc6s ·.£t c6~od:ltfes used ~ ,rurel ,f;lmll;v_ ·iivi·n~ decHned slightly d.ur.:t:ng· September j"' o:s luwor prl,cc·:1 oi; food f.Ll1& buHd..in{~ ll'..ator.lals ·

·more than offs:et cJ.cithinG .'ti?-crc~:sr.~.>. · :·r~d·C:',: .. :il.:~ i.tJ pmt0mobHe grice c~il.:l.ngs had not -gorieraQ.ly 1x.:en: put fnto c..ff't..•:: t l·;y lid d_--,SO'pt,)mbor, At 2(;)8· ( J 910-14:::.. lGO) . the mi'd.,..Septorilbcr 'i'rtd'~x of p;r.i qp; p·aid for ,co:rmnodi tie.s used· for family

.. · living. was :e 'po:tnt{;. b-elow th.c· rocu)"d 'lG'y-c,J. .. reached fn MG.y:. bl,lt 6, p€.lrcont -above mid-S~::.pt~mber ·a yr;l:tr agb. · · -: · · .' . · · .: ,

. . ~ ' . ' ~ ~ ' .... . ' . .. •; I j

• 'if : . . '

SEPTEMBER 1951 .. 9 -

AGRICULTURAl, EXPORTS

In tho 12 months ended June 30, 1951 United States exports of agri­cultural products were valued at 3,409 million dolJars, compared with 2,987 million in the preceding year, Th:l.s was a gain of 422 million dollars or 14 percent. The quantity index of agri.cultural exports declined 4 percent between the two fiscal years.

One factor contributing to the increase in th0 value of United State8 agricultural exports in fiscal 1950-51 was an increase of 13 percent in the gold and dollar holdings of foreign countries at the beginning of fiscal 1950-51 co:rnparei with a year earHe!'. During 1950-51 foreign countril:ls fin­anced out of their own dollar resources about two-thirds of the valuo of lmited States agricultural exports of 3.4 billion dollars.while in the pre­ceding year they financed only slightly over one-third of the 3.0 billion dollars worth of U. S, agricultural exports. Despite this increase in their dollar expenditure on U. S, agricultural exports in 1950-51 foreign countries wGre able to increase their gold and dollar holdings·by 20 percent during that year. The Korean war, which began in June 1950, gave rise to· t-vm fac­tors -vrhich tended to cause foreign countries to spend their dollar exchange rather than to continue to hold it. One of these factors was an increase ln personal incomes in raw-materi~l-producing countries as a result of post­Kore~n priQe increases, and in other countries as a result of full employment and.production expan~1on. The other factor was an attempt by foreign coun­tries to bu:l.ld up their stocks of foods and raw materials in anticipation of expected price increases.

Of the 422 milllon dollar. increase in the total value of agriculturf.l.l exports, the value of total food exports increased 301 million dollars or 19 percent; and the value of cotton tobacco, and other agricultural non­foods increasedl2lmillion dollars or 9 percent in 1950-51 compared to 1949-50.

Exports of cotton and cotton linters. the most important agricul­tural export staple, fell 1 percent in value and 27 percent in volume in the 12 months ended June 30, 1951 compared with exports in the preceding 12 months. This decrease in volume of exports was mainly owing to the re­striction of cotton and cotton linters exports in fiscal 1950-51 in order to conserve domestic stocks. The value of tobacco exports increasEd 3~1 mil­lion dollars o~ 17 percent: although the quantity declined sli~tly. Pa~t of the increase in value was owing to a shift of exports to countries buying higher priced grad.es of tobacco. The principal other agricultural non-foods that increased in value between fiscal yea.rs were soybeans with ·an increase of 37 mlllion dollars and crude soybean oil with an increase of 15 million dollars. The net increase in the value of exports of cotton, linters. un­manufactured tobacco soybeans, and crude soybean oil in 1950-51 over the previous year was 83 million out of the 121 million dollar increase between fiscal years for all agricultural non-foods.

The value of food exports in 1950-51 totaled 1,883 nrlllion dollars) an increase of 301 million over tho previous year. This increase in the value of food exports reversed a downward trend that had been underway since the postwar peak in fiscal 1947-48. This downtrend was associated with the postwar recovery of agricultural production in Europe. The reversal is

SEPTEMBER 1951 - 10 -

probably temporary sinco :1.t was owing in large part to a combination of ex­ceptional circumstances. For example, wheat [:J,nd. flour exports in 1950-51 tot_aled 365 million bushels, up 67 million from the p.revicus year. Nearly half the gain represented increased exports to India and Yugoslavia because of drought conditions ln those countries. In addition there -vras a relatlvely short 1950 wheat crop in the Southern Hemisphere and a considerable part of the Canadian crop was below export grade.

Of the total increase of 301 mtllion dollars in the value of our food exports between fiscal years-, exports of wheat and flour accounted for (-8 mil lion dollars. Exports of grain sorghums accounted for· 64 mHl:l.on dollars of the rise, largely owing to the use of grain sorghums for food in a number of countries, particularly India. EXports of corn accounted for 36 miJ.Uon dol­lar:s of the increase, barley 22 million, tallow 37 million, and lard 26 mil~ lion doJ,lars. The$e six foods accounted for an lncreaGe of 253 mHlion dollars ·of the total.

Table 3.- Value of exports of United Stntes agr1cu1. tura.l products in specified po~tods

Period Cotton Tobacco

:including: unmanu­· linters : factured

--------------~~-Mil.d<lL_ Mll.dol,

1935-39 Annual average 12ii

Total 1948

Total 1949

1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter

Total 1949

12.5.9. 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter

Total 1950

1221 lst quarter 2nd quarter

318

427

511

252 272 103 247

874

302 297 t88 237

253 263

128

271

215

52 40 84 76

252

31 44 80 96

251

Other Grain . Gre.nd agri- and Other total

cultural prepa­non-foods: rations.:

~~~~~~~~. Mil.dol. Mil.dol.

foods agrt-: C1Jltu.ral

0i1Jlo:r.---Mll.d~o~l~.--

29

150

61 60 39 87

2l.J.7

82 103

95

1,8B1

1,715

~-34 385 343 3oo

1,462

210 181 209 238

838

1,197

881

2lt~ 225 147 146

732

113 142 117 1~-4

516

163 222.

1,026 1,006

726 820

3,578

717 724 633 802

891 1,083

SEPTEMBER 1951 .. ll -

FARM INCOMI£

Farmers rece-Lved e.bout 21.7 btllian dollars from markettngs tn the first .9 months of 1951. 'l'his wa~ lli percent more. than they received in the correspond i.ng period las.t y_eax', ·ul thou-gh the total 'volume of market­ings was about the same as a year ago.

, Cash receipts from-l.iv·est9Gk aDd 11-'~(estock .products were about J.lf .1 billion dollars ,in the· -first 9 D19_Tths, or· -23 percent above last year. All th.e major livestock groups qho.retl ln. the increase·. · Poultry and egg re­ceipts. were up 31 percent, meat animals 22 percent, 'and dairy products 18 percent.. C.rop. recelpts we~e around. 7, 6 billion· dol1e.rs, nearly the same as in the .first. 9 months .of 1950. H1gher average pr:lces of crops v1ere off~ set b,y a· s1!1U1ler volume of sales. Receipts froxp. whelit, corn, and fruits were lower than a:year. ago, but those from cotton and vegetables were higher. Tobacco recei~ts w~re l~rgely unchanged.

Total cash receipts from marketings in September were around 3.4 bil­lion dollB.rs,. '13 percent above August because of Ja:::'ger mar~etinss, and

'15 percent above last September hecfl,use of higher average prices. Eeceipts ·from Uvestock and products in September were 1.7 billion dollars, about the

same as the month before: but 10 percent higher than a year earlier, Re­ceipts :f,'rom meat animals were.slightly above those in August,- owi.n,g to larger ma:r:ketings. 'l'he;y were ·6 percent over September last yt;;ar, although lllL'I.rket­lngs were down. Increased marketings and higher prices both contributed to an increase of 8 perc·ent in receipts from poultry and eggs compared with Ausru:st, and .to a 25 percent increase over a year ago. ReGeipts from dairy products wel'e down seasor.ally, although they were about- 12 percent above last year .

. Crop-~ecetpts in September were around 1.7 billion dollars. This wns 30 percen.,t more than in .f\.ugust and 20 percent above last September, despi to lower average pri·c·es in both cases. Receipts from'm9st crops were up Sfi;lason­ally f;rom August· espectally for cotton, peanuts, soybeans, and potatoes; but those from wheat were lower. Receipts from most of the princtpal crops were above a year ago.

LIYES'DOCK.AND MEAT

:Hog plaughter 'IJP to iat~ September has b.een exceptionally large for the season.· rt prpbably will incr.ease less r~pidly.than usual from now until December; when ·.tho seasonal p~a}c ~s expected.. Federally inspected slaughter was 17 percent larger in August ang..a:round 10 to 12 per~ent la!r'gE!r in Sep­tember than in the· same· months of 1950, but .. the percentage gain. over a year earlier will drop. furtl).er' by the year's en.d.. ·

. . ~·... ' .

The large early slaughter reflects in part the greater number of early fe~:rro1'1':ings last winter; I·t· EilSo is .evidence that' the' trend towar~ f~eding ;for qu;l.ck ina turity, wh:l:'ch has been under way sinc·e the war, is con.tinuing . .'I'her~ pa-y~ .b~en Il,Q. big., mar~tinss of. 'light' unfinished ·hog_s. Market. receipts .9f sows, and of heavy· barrows a,nd· gilt's from fall farrowings have been larger this·, fall than last,· Av·erage' Inarket' 'Weights have beem ab'o_ut the same as. at 'ti~e b,~ginnipg of·. the _s'easo:p. last year·. · , · ·

· ~ Prices· of hogs, particu·larly- for the lighte-r·. weights, declined in August and early Septemb.er, and a general seasonal reduction is likely until about December. Prices have been below a year earlier and for the season may average a little less thml last fall.

SEPTEMBER 19 51 - 12 -

Hog prices aro now near an avere,ge relationship to the price of corn. During most of the pnst 3 yenrs the hog-corn price ratio has been above average. As a result of the lower ratio and of prospects tor" a corn crop about the same as last year; little ~f any increase is likely in the 1952 spring pig crop.

Cattle slaughter,. now rising seasonally, will reach a peak within a few weeks, but it i.s questionable whether the fourth quarter slaughter will reach that for the like perirJd last year. large ma,rketings of cattle from dry areas of Texas and Oklahoma have gone chiefly to pastu!"es and feedlot!} elsewhere rather than to slaughter, Moven-1ent out of other range areas i9 !ate this year. Fed cattle marketings from the Corn Belt in August and Se1'tember were less than in the same months of 19501 reflecting the 9 percent decrease in numbers on fe~ July 1. Fed cattle market1ngs ::u:•e likely to hold up well during the reE~t of 1951, though remaining a little below tho comparable period last y(:ar.

Prices of cattle have been nenr ceiling-equivnlent levelsp except for some seasonal widening of the: spr0nd between grades. Prices arc expected to continue frtirly stendy~ aJthough some weakening is possible at times of largest marketings.

Even with the large rrr.rkctings thnt are expected in the .fourth quarter, cattle slaughter for J95J wj lJ. likely total no moro than 18 million head. This would be the smallest annual s1aughtor in at least 8 years~ Cattle numbers arc rlslng. By next J anuar·y 1 th·Jre vrill be around 90 million head of cattle and calves on farms 1 6 million rr:o:r0 than a year earlier 1 and 1. new record high.

Largely becauf:le of ttte reduced cattle slaughter, meat C')n£mmption per person ha~ been slightly srr,aller this year than last. Larger consumption of pork has not entirely offset a smaller consumpti')n of other meats. With a large cattle slaughter &ld beef supply in the last quarter, consumption of all meat per person for 19 51 may about equal the 144 p:mnds of lnst year.

DAIRY PRODUCTS

Wholesale and ::.'etail prices for dairy products have varied within a very narrow range for severnl munths. Pr1ces at both levels of distribution are substantinlly higher than a year ngo. At wholesale, the increases over September 1950 levels range fl"'om 7 percent for butter to 25 poz·cent for nonfat dry Irilk. Wholesale p!"ices frn• manufactured dairy products have been about at the equivalent of U. S. Depar,tn•ent of AP-riculture support prices on mnnufaetur­ing milk and butterf~to However, to date this year only moderate quantities of nonfat dry milk and slTiall quantities of butte:ro and cheefie have been purchased

The price received by farmers for milk delivered to plants end dealers has increased seasonally from the June level. The price of butterfat has be~n essentially unchanged since la5t winter. In September, the U. S. average pr1ce for whole milk delivered to plants and dealers we,s $4.60 per hundred pounds, compared to $4.02 a year earlie~~ the rise of 14 percent reflecting substan· tially increased demand" Tho butterfat p1·ice was 68~4 cents per pound this September, compared to 60.9 cents in September 1950~ Septemb~r 1951 prices were equivalent to 93 percent. of parity !or• milk and 90 percent tov butterfnt,

SEPT:EMEER 1951

·The u. s. average rate. of milk production. per cow in crop. reporters• herds has declined less than usual this yeaT from the June peak. This has been'lp.rgely the result of better l"Jastures .in the impor:tant dairy · sections of the No~theast and the Midwest. !n a number of southern States, however, dry weather caused a decline in milk .r'io,.r j;,er cow •... Total milk pro due tion in August was larger than a year ea~lier, after ~unning ·smaller in every :previous month except May. Milk production in the rest of the year :probably will average about the same as a year earlier, so that total milk production in 1951 probably will be in the neighborhood of 120 bil­lion pounds compared to 120.6 billion pounds in 1950. Consumption of milk in fluid form has been somewhat larger than a year earlier· desp it~ sub­stantially higher prices. With lower farm oU.tput of milk to dat.e this year, therefore, the amounts available fo~ manufactured products have been smaller.

Storage stocks of dairy produ.cto are now about at the seasonal peak. The accumulation of stocks this past summer was relatively large but total holdings are somewhat smaller than a year earlier when the USDA held large quantities of butter and cheese, later sold into domestic channels. Stocks of cream, normally stored mainly for off-season ice cream production, on September 1 were more than double those of a year earliftr•

POULTRY AND EGGS

E~g ptices have receded fro~ the mi~September level, Which is the :peak to date. !f the mid-September prices received by farmers should prove to be the peak for the year, it would be the second time that the high point had c9me so early in the season. The 1950.peak in prices paid to farmers came in December which is unusur.Uly late. The Sept ember 1951

.Price of 55.0 cents per dozen as the U. S. average compares with 40.4 cents a year earlier, and 57.7 cents as the 1950 mid-month peak in December.

September has in recent year~ been the month of lowest egg pro­duction on farms. The month of lo11rest production, however, is not neces­sarily, the month of highest. egg prices. The timing of the peak :price is also affec~ed by (a), ~he time lag between pro due tion and final salet (b), the extent to ,,rh ich .egg supplies from cold storage supplement current production, and by (c), the seasonally changing proportions of'large, top­q_uality eggs in the total supply. This year, the second of- these three factors is clearly different from 1950 • since storage holdings of shell eggs in 35 important cities on September 29, 1951 were 46 :percent .below a year earlier. .

14arketings of both young ard mature farm chickens are near their seasonal peaks.· Sales of broilers from specialized enterprises are also at a.high level, reflecting the nea~record broiler chick ~lacements.of midr-8Wlli!Ier. 'lhese la.rge marketings have been absorbed,.. at prices averaging somewhat lower than in preceding I!IOilths • In m:l.d.- September • U~ S~ average

.chicken prices :received by farmers were 25.2 ~ants :pe;r pound (live); a. month earlier, they "'ere 26.0 centst t, .... o months earlier, 27.0 cents; 12mon'bhs earlier, 24.5 eents"

~e usual movement into .cold storage ~s begun for those classes of chickens whose slaughter is sharply seasonal, but at present 1 t is. possible t~t the aCC'UmU1ation ma¥ alae> inelud.~ aigni.t':toant quantities of broilers and fryers.

SEPTE-iBBR 1951

. Main-season young turkeys from the record 1951 crop are ~lread¥ being marketed in volume. Despite. the estimated 16 percent :increase from last. year in the number of turkeys raised, the mid-September :price of )6~~3 cents per pound (l~ve) was almost 3 cents hi~er than a year earlier. A factor. :tn the early season demand was military :procurement to supply ovorse~s requi;'ements, .,.rhich are expected to be sa.'liisfied well in ·advance of the Thank'sgiving and Ohris~mal)! holidays.,

. · .. FATS, OILS .AND_ OILSEEDS-

Prices of· the principal edible 'oi1s---cottoneeed and soybeans­declined from August to September, when they averaged about the same e.s

· in July., Probably the. most important· factor in the temporary ·Up\'tar,d movement of prices for these oils in August was the expectation .that the Government would su-pport the price r::rf 1951·-crop cottonseed oil at a level

. considerably above· that prevailing in July.·. ~This was sub stantiat ed when the Government announeed on· August 17 that it \V'Ould. purcbase cottonseed ;products .at- spec1fied prices., ·H.owever, the· agreement_ req_u.ire.s that crush.er:s ·must sell certain quantities of the meal and linters .as well as oil to the. Govel'nrnen.t at· stipulated prices. · Consequently 9 the possible total retur:n- ftom ·-all three. :products will d~te:md.ne. "'rh·ether or not crushers "'rill offer these proclucts to tbe ·Government under the :progro.ll'l -o.r sell them on the open market. Apparently, crushers at present can get a. larger total return by selling all three products on tbe open market, although theY. are :l1 eceiving nearly. 1 cen:t ~per l)Otmc"J •. less for the oil than the price specified in ,the ceo contra,ct.. .

.Prices for. lard increa~ed' £~om August t-o Septemb e.~ .... Prices drer_pped sharply· toward the -e:nd of Au.gilst, fBralleling ·th:e -m-ovement in prices of edible oils, but increased. sharply in tho latter half of Ber_p_tombero Danand fo.r. lard, both ctomestic ®d eiport, bas been heav;v this Y_ear and stocks are below the level of a year earlier., Lard supplies normally increase COJ:+!?iderably beginning about October 11

. Linseed oii (and flaxseed) .priMs adv~~ed sharply in September. probably .re:flecting & delay in· harvesting and marketing flaxseed due to \'retweather 11 and the announcement inmid~Ser,Ptanber that 1952-crop flax..­se~d 'Iilli 1 be eupp.orted at a national average of $3.77 per bushel for lil'o. 1, COn:ipared with $2.65 for th~ 1951 <;:r:oJ?., .

. ·. Prices ot: i11e.dible tallow 'and groascs in Se:ptemi;>e,r remained about

the same as a month earlier.

.. The inde;x of vlholesale prices of -26 major fats an_d oils (excluding butter) in .f?e-.f>tanber.t·ras 190 percent of_ t4e l935-39. average, :·compared with 1S3 in August, 251 in Febru?.:cy (the peak since the out.bre.ak of hostilities in Korea) • and 191 in1 ~er_p·temb.er 1950. ·· ·- .

_ ·' 'output of :~dible vegetable: 'oils in th~ year beginning October 1, 1951, 'may 'he a-b-Qu,t. to percent_ lar·gol' than th.e record lgJo-51 production of 4,4po million po1.fndso The produ'cit;ton estiniato incrlud.e.~ the .oil ecpivalent of ._soybeans and, peonut s expor};ed for c;i:usl:dng. ·

! ' .••

I • t . , ~: ... , i t, ... •

Based on the expectGd producti-on o:( cot ~o:n).fxit' • output of cotton-seed is estimated at 6,990 thousand -tons ,tlompe.red '!ITit'h ~-078 thousand tons in 1950~ Production of soybeans for boan8 is placeQ. a;t; ~73 millioJ:l . . .

SEl' T.EM:B.E R 19 51 -15-

LarCl. production in the year beginning October i951 may be larger than the 2p800 million pounds produced a year earlier, but production of butter probably will be smaller than the 1 9 500 miliion pounds estimated for 1950...5lc

Production of 1951-crop flaxseed vras inclicated at 35o0 million bushels on September li 3o0 million bushels less then on J'.lly 1 and 4 .. 3 mil­lion belot'J' last year. Production of flaxseed. and linseed oil in 1951-52 will be less than disappearance 9 and the relatively large Government stocks will decl inc s ome"rha to

CORN .Al:ID OTHER FE:EJJJ

)?r~ces of feed grains in September held close to August levels, vrhile prices of many of the bypro duet feeds advanced. Feed grain prices have been lOto 15 percent.hir;her this summer than a year earlier and !:ave been generaliy above the price supports for the 1951 crops. During the season ahead, feed prices will be influenced by prospective strong demand and higher price supports on t~e 1951 crops than in 1950. The national average price support for 195i corn is $1.57 per bushel. Corn prices, which are seasonally hiep in summer, have been above the support level in recent months a Sorghum grain prices have been lo''' during 1950-51 in relation to

. priceS Of other feed grai:O.S 1 but the;')' ]_)1'0 babJ.y Hill be relatiVely higher in 1951~52r ·The 1951 price support is 30 cents per 100 pounds hi&ter than last year, and the supply is about one-third smaller.

Prices of high-protein feeds this summer were lower in relation to feed grains than in the past tvJo yearso. Prices of a number of the so feeds advanced. from Aueust to September. In the case of soybean meal, the ad"rance apparently refle·cted a year-end reduction· in sur.plies., With tbe start of crushing of the big 1951 cottonseed crop, cottonseed n:eal prices have dropped well below soybean meal v t...-hereas cottonseed meal prices have been unusually high during most of the 1950-51 feeding season.

Cn So:ptember 21 the Secretar:r of Agriculture announced increased loan rates en 1952 crops of oats, barley, and grain so~gh~s~ The national avera~e price support rates for the crops are as follows~ Oats 78 cents per bushel for No. 3 or better; barley $1Q22 per bushel for Noo 2 or better and grain· sorghun:s $2.38 per cvrt. for No. 2 or better.

Although the 1951 season has been generally favorable for foed crops, a little smaller production .of feed grn.ins is eJg)ected than in ·tho past two yoars.. The 1951-52 supply of all feed concentrates, including the grains and byproduct feeds~ was estimated in early September at 176 million tonso This would be 3 percent belo\'r the big.sup:plies of the twl'l preceding seasons, but.much larger than in most ~rears ~;rior to 1949o However, with livestock numbers increasing~ more feed probably will be used in 195lw52 than in any feeding season since the l'lorld lvar II peak. Totnl consumption of feod. grains probably will exceed. the 1951 l'roduction of 120 million tons, resulting in smaller carry-over stocks at the end of t:he 1951-52 scasono Thol951-·52 corn supply is estimated at close to 3.9 billion bushels, about 100 million bushels B~allor than last year 0

S:&=lT:EMJ3ER 1951

Tho hay s<uj_Jply was estimated· in early September at 129 million tons, whiC'.h would bO' ,.o.rgor than in any past yoaro Hay supplies arc fully ample .for tho'liventock ·bo be fed throughout most of tho northern part of the country 1 but su:pplies arc short in nrens of the South. Pastures continued better than avorage in oa!"·ly Sc:ptorobor in roost of the Northern part of tho country~ but were poor in tho South0

FRUIT

iH th large harvest-time supplies of deciduous fruits in October 11

grower prices for most such :frui·&s will be seasonally low and average some­what undE:rt' 1950 prices, Ho11rov·orQ gr·ower prices for tho 1951 cranberry crop arc o:x:pocted. to o.'9';.;rage a llt ~lo higher this fall than last.,

Grower prices for apples probably will decline a little further in October as marketing of tho larger production of fall varieties cOn. tinuos horrvy, Later in the fall as marketing shifts to winter varieties, of '!.rtl,lich production is smaller this year than in 1950, some rise in prices is eJGoo poe 'bod~

Exports to various countries will again be facil :i.tatod by an export­payment program similar to tho 1950-51 programo It is anticipated also that exports from the United States to tho United Kingdom will be larger in the 1951-52 season than in 1950-51 because of a chango in :Sri tish import policy for apples,. Grower :;o:ricos for pears during Octo·oor and Novcmb or probably will not change much from Sept emb or level so

Prices that growers will recoiYe for grapec this fall are ex-pected to continuo low mainly because of la;r.ge supplies., The production of raisins i'S expected to be sharply incrE}ased over last year! s low pack.

Conditions are favorable for growers to receive somewhat higher prices for cranberries this fall than in the fall of 1950p Tho 1951 crop is abo'\lt 7 percent smaller than tho record 1950 crop and carrJwovcr stocks of cran~ berries are ·much smaller. than a year ago 11

]oth grower and terminal market auction prices for oranges and grape­fruit arc expected to decline in October ~ni Hovembor as -movement of the now crop from Florida gains in volume. On Sc::.ptember 1, 1951~ cond5.tion of tho Florida orange and g~apefruit crops was excellent. Stocks of canned citrus fruits and juices in packers1 hands in Florida on September 1, 1951 wore more than 2-1/2 times as large as stocks on that date in 1950. Stocks of frozen orange juice wore nearly twice as large as a year earliero

Tho 1951 cr~s of deciduous fruits and tree nuts are about on~tenth larg9r than tho 1950 cro:;oso Larger ~adks of dried fruits 9 canned fruits, canned fruit juices, and frozen fruit juices are expected in 1951 than in 1950, for both deciduous and citruso · The pack of frozen fruits, excluding juices, roqy be about as large as in 1950o

WEE AT 1rfith the heavy seasonal movement to market, springwhoa.t prices

currently are little above the lmv of the season. The price of No¢ 1 Dark l'l'orthorn Spring at Minneapolis on October 3 was $2.,35o This is a cent beloW the effective loan rate of $2d6 ($2.46 loss 10 cents for storage), and 7 cents above tho low point reaChed on July 25.

SE.PT:EMilER 1951 -17- .

Now that the heavy movement of 1irinter wheat is past, current prices of 'i.rinter 1irheat ~1ave advanced. to above tho effective loan level.., Tho price of liTo" 2 Hard Winte.:r wheal; at Kansas City on-October 3 was $2o33 1rthich is 4 cents above the offoctiv c loan rate of $2"3lJ. ($2.,41+ less 10 cents fo:r­storage) o

. United States avor:age pri..ces rccoiv od 'by farmers for all wheat in mia...-Soptombo:r ";~~as $2.,07 ~ 1irhlcb. is 2 cents above a month earliori 13 cents above a year earlier? ani dightly below the cff?ctiv·o.national ayerago loan of about $2c 08c Pri.. cos of ~inter ·whea·b, \•rhich cons ti tutos throe-fourths of our total production~ arc usually lowest in June, July, or .A.ugustp after \'Jhich they advance seasonally~ fn 8 of the :past 12 marketing years, since tho loan program was inaugurated~ prices averaged hi~cst in Murch or later. In ono year· they averago'i highest in Fobmary, in 2 years they averaged higho'st in JanuarJ ~ and in one year tho high came ln Dccomberr

On Septambor 13 tho Department announced that because of wides-pread w0ather damage to 1r1hoat in tho field~ the 1951·-crop price SUl)port program has been extended to cover No., 4~ No., 5 and sample grade. Thi.s will enable fanners to hold such ~~aged wheat until it can be marketed in an orderly mannoro

The Soutcrubcr estimate of tho \'Theat crop was practi caDy unchanged. from a month ;arlioro 'rho estimate of tho spring crop was raised only about one million bushels and no now estimate for winter ~Jhca~ was mad.e 19

Indicated total supplies thus remain about unchanged at 1,~,34 million bushels., This includes a crop of 999 m:i.1ilon bushels. probable impo:ots of feeding quality 'lorhcat of about 40 million 7 and the 'Jn.rry-ovor of 395 mil­lidn., Supplio s of this size have boon exceeded in only six ycarso Domestic disa;ppcaranco i.n 1951-52 may total about 748 million bushels 9 1imi ch 1irould leave about 685 million for exports and carry-over~ If exports total abou.t tho same as t;h e 366 million in 1950-51 about 320 million ,,rould rcma~n for ca:rry~ovo:r july l ~ 1952~ This \'rould be 75 million bushels below the carry­over July 1, 1951 9 but only slightly below the 334 million bushel 1941-50 averagoo

. Tho wheat ha:h·cs'b in Canada is officially forecast at a record of 579 million busholsv 25 percent above last yoar1 s big outturnp \'rhich had'a largo }Jropo:r.tion of frost-damaged w'noato .Exports from Canada in 195J...·52 9

howovo·r, may bo rostri..ctod by limited rail and lake transportation faciJ.i ties~ Tho acreage in Argon tina is reported bolO\'l that of tho last crop and c;ro1iring conditions have not 'been favorable because of continued drought. Reduced scodings ~n Australia arc c~cctod to result in a snaller crop than last yoaro

CCi:vfi.m.RCI.AL TRUOK CROPS

For Fresh J'-1n:rkot - --·-lH th Sllpplio s of commercial truck crops for fresh market smaller

than last yoar~ and with demand stronger than in tho fall of 1950 9 gro\'rers arc expected to receive substantially higher pric os this fall than tho relatively 1~ prices of last fall~ Of 11 t1uck crops for fall or early fall ha:r:V'ost for which production has been estimated to dato 9 all but 2 arc

SEPT:BNBER 1951 -l.Gr. "lll", ......

expected. to bo smaller than last yearG Aggrcg~to producUon of these c:rops is o:x:pcctod to 'bo 17 pdrcont below last· fall but 1 per cent above tho lO...yeo.r avorageo Tho hoa'Vi.est reduction in 'tonnage is 'in early fall cabbage which last year was produced in hoo:vy sur:pi-u.s and. brought disastrously low prices to many growerso 'rho largest percentage reduction from last fali is· in tho early fal::. p>la crop~ which is expected to be about one-third snalle:r than last yo~ and two-thirds smaller than aYcrage, Tho fall crops of lima beans and cauliflmver aro tho on:Jy on:os expected to bo eq.ual to last yeare

Farmers and processors are prod.ucing substantia.liy larger Sllpplics· of truck crops for colilllle:tcial processing than :(.ast year, in O:Jq;>ecta.tion of larger military and civilian demands~ ~he estimated total tonnage of 9 import!;Jlt crops for procossi.ng· is more than o~fourth larger than last ;y"~to.r.,' Pros-pects arc for larger :produc't'l:.on than last year for green iima beans 9 snap beans, sweet corn, green peas, '"inter and. spring spinach, nnd tomatoes. Smaller cro:J?s are in prospect for l!abbago, be?ts, and pimientos.,

As of August 31 9 'stocks of roost frozen vegetables, and' of all items combined 9 wore record largo for that date~ On the other hand1 wholesale stocks of canned vegetables in general vro:ce much lower on recent carry-ove:r datos this year than lasto Total supplies of canr10d and frozen vegetables are. belio·ved large enough ·to SUIJPlY the enlarged military and civilian demnnds this fell and vrin·~ er 'ItT lth only modorat e increases in pricoo

POTATOES AND SWJ!lETPO~!ATOES

For 'tho firs·t time in several years~ pr-o spoctive supplies of pota-­toes are abou-t in line with demand t;l-t curron t price so Growers ha:ve c..ut acreage sharply below last yoar? Also • yields per aero aro. not expected to oq_ual last yoa:r7. s record& Prices received ty farmers for the crop in 1951 probably vlill aYcrago moderately higher than in 1950.

Tho very short swoetpotato crop this year is expected to result in prices substnntially higher than in other recent yearso Whether ~~ prices v-rill induce fanners to increase acreage next year will t\.opond in considerable part upon p:cospocts for alternative crops at plantine; time next sprin,g,., Tho farm labor supply· and. the weather at planting time will also be significant·factors. Tho 1951 prospective crop of sweetpotatoos is the smallest crop since 1364. Both tho total acreage and prospective average yield ·par acre arc do\'m substantially from last ·year,,

DRY EDIDUJ BE.AJ::rs .AJ.m PEAS

Although tho'dry bean crop in 1951 is now expected to be slightly larger than in 1950 1 farmers probably will roceiv·o prices o.voraging about as high as those received for tho 1950 c~op., This prospect is based on . tho strongor demand expected :in the 1951-crop-roarketing year and tho smaller total supplios resulting from. tho Sl,lb st~tial r..;duction :!.n Governmon t-hold stocks accomplished during the l9.5()..cr.op-'ro~rkcting year.,

Doroand for dry field peas in 1951-52 is not. expected to b~. roatorif).llY stronger. than d.u·l'ing the last c.rop marlcoting yearo Hence, with the pros-­pective Cl'Op estimated to be· about one-fourth larger than last year~ s V'ory small crop, prices received by farmers mey average some>what lower than those

SEPT.i!MBEll 1951

COT~rON

Cotton pri cos declined during August and then began to. move slowly trpward i.n Se-pt omb err, Tho d..eel inc in prices reflected the lurgc:r supply of cotton which will bo available this cl:'op your.. Tho riso in price was caused in par·b ,by rcmoyal· of restrictions on the quantity of exports and by the current· disposition of fat"Ille:rs to hold their cotton :l.n view of present market condi"!;ionsn

On September 5 tho a;'IJ'OI'ago 10 spot ma:rkot price for liliddl:l.ng 15/16 inch cot ton was 34,10 cents -l?or · pouno. 1 tho lm·rcst since Juno 30~ 1950o By October 2 this price had rison to 36o 73 conts~ ~c ~9r~c6 ro-. coivod by fanners for cotton was 33o 73 cents on S0ptombor 15 ~ 1951, 9~44 oante bo1ovl tho record high of 43~17 cents on April 15 9 1951 w "'ihilo the parity r)ri co rano.inod at tlw July 15 level of 33.,85 cents., Tho loan rate this season is 3lo 71 cents a pound fo:r: Niddling 15/16 inch cotton at avorago locationo

In col'ltrast bo iast ~rear 'tJhen only about 8,000 bales uore pJacod. in tho Government loan, fanners are OJqJO ctod to place considerable qu.an..., ti tics under loan 'tJith tho Commocli ty Crcc"'ci t Col":poration by tho time this yea~t s cro-p j.s completely harvested. Most of this cotton,· will probably move out of tho loan by next summer. ThrouGh Sc'J:ltember 20, about 175,000 bales had boon plac,,d,, under lean~

Tho September 10 report on ti1e 'cotton crop estimates production at 17 ~291· thousand bales of 500 pouno.s,. _about tho same as :Jho Ausust 8 report. Acrca~e for harvc.st is put at 28 ,544~000 acres. l3asod on this re-port, the August 1 ca:rry'~ovor. ·of about 2., 2 million bales and imports of 200 thouscmd bales, tho cotton supply in tho United Ste.tes rluring 1951-52 is estimated at 19,.. 5 mill ion running bales.,

Tho avoro.gc dany rate of domosti c mill consumption of cot ton :l.n August ,,.,us 37., 7 thousand bales compared with 32.0 thousMd in July~ Tho .August figure is 6 .... 7 percent loss than consumption d~:ring.August 1950.

Exports during July "''oro '129.1· thousand bales, bringing tho· total for tho yoar beginning August 1, 1950~ to 4ol million bn.los, o:!" about 29 per cent less than in 1949-50o Virtually all restrictions have no"'r boon removed from tho export of cot ton to friendly countries, ·Lint cot ton was plMod under general licensing on Septanb or 17 and opon-ond allocations wore oa·ua:>lishod for linters on September io., ·

Tho 1951~52 wol•ld cotton su-pply is no~r estimated at about 47 mil~ . lion bales., This is appxoximatoly-7 percent mo-re than tho world ,supply .. last yoar, arid ab ()Ut ·42 :oorcm t mor.o than, last yoar 1 s record world ~'l.isap­poarancc of 33o2 milli911 bales., \1hilo no official estimato of 1951-52 world cot ton consum}')tion is yet available P tho Int orna tional Cotton Advisory Commi ttoo has estimated n.n incroaso in ;"orlc1 carry--out stocks this year of only 3 million baloso

Prices of cotton textiles in tho United States have decreased and du:ring August tho ·oriccs of 17 construe tio ns o'f grey goods averaged abou·l; 6,31 cc-.a ts loss th:·=m in Julyo Nill l:ilarginl.'l~ tho spread bet\·Tcon tho price of a. pound of cotton and its approximate cloth cg_uivalmt, lave decreased as a result of this largo docreaso in textile :pricosc

SEPTEMBER 1951

-WOOL

The 1~1-52 wool selling ·.s_eason i'n_ th~ British Dominions--Australia, New Zealand, and South.J\.frica-·opell;.;ld J,ate in August .. Prices at the auctions continued the declirw whioh began -la t~···last March, ®til late ilLSep_talllber, when they turned u::_JWard, ·Auction prices for most wools in late Se.ptember , were below p:r'e-Korea levels an.d:were 55 to 65 pe:rcent below the peak levels of last March. ·

Between mid-August and ,late September, prices quoted for Australian 64s, 70a good topmaking wool &t Boston decllned from $2.20 to $1.70 per pound, cl•-Jc:.~l basis (American y· •. eld), 1n bond at Boston. The ;>rice of domestic ~,erri tory sta1;le 64s and finer wool11 which was quoted at $2.20 for th~ week ended August 17 1 was quoted at $1,70 for the week ended· September 28.

During September, the average price received by growers for.'ehorn wool declined for the sixth month in succession. Prices received by growers at mid-September averaged 66.9 cents per pound, grease .basis, The mid~month average for August was 77.1 cents and for September last year was 65,6' cents. ' .

Consumvtion of apparel wool in the United States during the first half of the year was only sli@1tly.lower than last year.· During January­June domestic woolen and worsted mills consumed 208 million pounds, scoured basis; of apparel .. wool, a-bout 2 percent lesa than for the same months of last year, Incr.eased consumptipn of ,appare:L wool for mili tcry i teme just about offset the sharp deqline in consumption for civilian uses. The rate of corisunrption of ,,}arpet wool continued to decline, The weekly rate of 1~6 million puunds in June compared with 1.8 m:J.llion pounds per week during the previous month and 3o7 million pounds dur.ing June of last yea~.

The substitution-of othe~·materials for wool in the spinning of carpet.ysrn) particularly of rayon, has increased rapidly during the past yea~. During May, rayon represented 28 percent of all fiber consumed for the spinning of carpet yarn on the woolen and worsted systems compared with only 3 percent a year earlier,

Importe·of apparel (dutiable) wool fu;ve been substantially higher than last year •. · During the first 7 months of the year, imports of such, wool for consumption totaled 182 million pounds, clean basis, compared with 142 million pounds last year. Imports of.apparel wool, h~~~ver, declined gradually from March through July. Imports of carpet· (duty-free) wool, however, have been substantially lower. Only 72 million pounds of such wool were 1mportAd during the first half of the year, This was about half as much as Yl'ae imported during the same period of last year .. "

SEPTET'JDER 1951 - 21 -

TOBAOCO

Flue-cured tobacco prices this season have averaged lower than the record level for last year' a crop. The 1951 crop was nearly three-fifths ruarketed by October 1 and prices a·veraged 50.5 cents 'Per pound--8 percent less than in the comparable period lP.CJt season. Of the leaf marketed so far this season, a larger proportion than last year has been of low quality. This has been a major factor tending to depress the average prtce in re­lation to a year ago. The total sup:;>ly of flve-cured tobacco for 1951-52 will be at a record lev(:jl. Domestic U3e of flue-cured tobacco in cigarette manufacture will continue high and exports are expected to show an increase above last year's. Ctga~ette output in the first 8 months of 1951 was 5 percent higher than in the e~ periOd of 1950!

Most Burley tobacco also goes into cigarettes. Burley auctions us­ually begin around the first of December. This year•s crop is moderately larger than last year's. However, stocks are lower and the total Burley supply for 1951-52 will be only slightly larger than ~n 1950-51. The support level for the 1951 Burley crop is 49.8 cents per pound--9 per­cent above last year 8 e. The increase .reflects mostly the rise in parity jndex over the past year. The Burley support level is calculated at 90 percent of ita September parity :price. The 1950 Burley crop averaged 48.9 cents per pound.

Snuff and chewing tobacco are important outlets for the fire-cured and dark air-cured types. During the first 8 months of 1951 output of chewing tobacco held about even wjth that in the same period of 1950, but snuff was a little lower. Auctions for the fire-cured and dark air-cured types begin in the late fall and the first of the year. The 1951 produc­tion of these types is a little larger than last year's. The 1951 support levels for fire-cured and dark air-cured (computed at 75 and 66 2/3 per­cent of the Buriey loan level) are 37,4 and 33.2 cents per pound respec­tively. The average prices received by farmers for the 1950 fire-cured and dark air-cured crops were 31.1 and 24.6 cents per pound respectively. The inferior quality of the 1950 crop pulled do~~ the general price average~!' last season.

IJ.'he 1951 cigar filler and binder crops are indicate« at about 9 and 18 percent below last year's while shade-grown wrapper production 1s very nearly as large as in 1950. Tax-paid withdrawals of large cigars in the first 8 months of the year were 5 percent ahead of those in the same pertod a year earlier.

Exports of unmanufactured tobacco from the Untted States during January-July 1951 totaled about 191 million pounds (declared weight)-­pract1cally the eame as in the same 7 month :period last year. The 1951 calendar yea~ total is expected to exceed that of 1950.

U. Sb Department of Agriculture Washington 25t Do 0.

oFFI~IAL :susnwss .

J3A'El-Dl?~1D-5l.:..4300, .. l'ermi t No. '1001 ·

. '

Penalty for private use to avoid · payment of postage $300

..