Cadila 4Q FY 2013

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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY2013 3QFY2013 % chg (qoq) 4QFY2012 % chg (yoy)Net sales 1,566 1561 0.3 1344 16.5Other income 55 60 (8.7) 69 (20.5)

Gross profit 947 1023 (7.4) 849 11.6

Operating profit 240 212 13.4 229 4.8

Net profit 262 103 155.2 171 53.6Source: Company, Angel Research

For 4QFY2013, Cadila Healthcare (Cadila) reported numbers just in line of

expectations, except on the net profit front. The companys sales for the quarter,at `1,566cr, were just-in-line with estimates. On the operating front, the gross

and net operating margins came below expectations. This, along with a tax write-

back during the quarter, resulted in the net profit coming in higher than

expectations. Overall, the net profit came in at `262cr, a yoy growth of 53.6%.

The Management expects the company to be a US$3bn one by FY2016. Werecommend a Buy with a revised target price of `909.Above-expectation results: For 4QFY2013, Cadila reported net sales of `1,566cr,up 16.5% yoy, just-in-line with our estimate of `1,558cr. The performance was

driven by a 14.4% yoy growth in the domestic markets, while exports on the other

hand grew only by 19.7% yoy during the period. During the quarter, the

companys gross margin dipped to 60.5%, a contraction of 262bps. This led the

OPM to contract to 15.3%, from 17.0% in the corresponding quarter of the

previous year, which is a contraction of 170bps. This along with the tax write back

during the quarter, led the net profit to rise by 53.6% yoy to `262cr (vs `171cr in

4QFY2012), below our estimate of `146cr.

Outlook and valuation: We expect Cadila to post an 18.1% CAGR in net sales to`8,590cr and its EPS to report a 19.1% CAGR to `45.4 over FY201315E. While

we have revised the OPMs downwards from 18.0% to 15.5% for the next two

years, given the revision in the tax guidance, the earning momentum is likely to

sustain. We recommend a Buy with a revised target price of `909.Key financials (Consolidated)Y E March (` cr) FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ENet sales 5,090 6,155 7,280 8,590% chg 14.0 20.9 18.3 18.0

Net profit 650 655 785 930% chg (8.6) 0.8 19.8 18.5

EPS 31.7 32.0 38.3 45.4EBITDA margin (%) 17.9 15.0 15.5 15.5

P/E (x) 24.4 24.2 20.2 17.0

RoE (%) 27.4 23.3 23.5 23.1

RoCE (%) 17.3 13.2 14.3 15.4

P/BV (x) 6.2 5.2 4.3 3.6

EV/Sales (x) 3.4 2.9 2.4 2.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 19.2 19.1 15.8 13.3

Source: Company, Angel Research

BUYCMP 774

Target Price 909

Investment Period 12 months

Stock Info

Sector

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 74.8

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 14.4

FII / NRIs / OCBs 5.6

Indian Public / Others 5.2

Abs.(%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 4.8 21.8 16.6

Cadila 1.9 5.9 26.9

Face Value (`)

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

Pharmaceutical

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap (`cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

15,844

0.1

964 / 705

14,349

Net debt (`cr) 2,211

5

19,760

5,986

CADI.BO

CDH@IN

Sarabjit Kour Nangra+91 22 39357600 Ext: 6806

[email protected]

Cadila HealthcarePerformance Highlights

4QFY2013 Result Update | Pharmaceutical

May 31, 2013

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Cadila Healthcare |4QFY2013 Result Update

May 31, 2013 2

Exhibit 1:4QFY2013 performance (Consolidated)Y/E March (` cr) 4QFY2013 3QFY2013 % chg (qoq) 4QFY2012 % chg (yoy) FY2013 FY2012 % chgNet Sales 1,566 1,561 0.3 1,344 16.5 6,155 5,090 20.9Other Income 55 60 (8.7) 69 (20.5) 240 224 6.9Total Income 1,621 1,621 (0.0) 1,413 14.7 6,395 5,314 20.3Gross profit 947 1023 (7.4) 849 11.6 3835 3390 13.1

Gross margin (%) 60.5 65.5 63.1 62.3 66.6Operating profit 240 212 13.4 229 4.8 923 911 1.4

Operating Margin (%) 15.3 13.6 17.0 15.0 17.9Financial Cost 32 48 (34.1) 35 (10.7) 169 183 (7.7)

Depreciation 47 50 (6.1) 39 19.1 183 158 15.8

PBT 217 175 24.3 224 (3.0) 811 794 2.1

Tax (58) 63 (192.5) 44 (233.6) 119 113 5.7

Adj. PAT before Extra-ordinary item 275 111 147.0 180 52.8 692 681 1.5Exceptional loss/(gain) 0 0 0 0 0

Minority 13 9 49.0 9 36 29

PAT before Extra-ordinary item & MI 262 103 155.2 171 53.6 655 653 0.4EPS (`) 12.8 5.0 8.3 32.0 31.8


Exhibit 2:4QFY2013 Actual vs. Angel estimates` cr Actual Estimates VarianceNet Sales 1,566 1,558 0.5Operating profit 240 299 (19.6)Tax (58) 46 -

Net profit 262 146 79.3Source: Company, Angel Research

Revenue up 16.5% yoy, just-in-line with estimates

For 4QFY2013, Cadila reported net sales of `1,566cr, up 16.5% yoy, and higher

than our estimate of `1,558cr; driven by both domestic and export markets, which

grew by 15.0% yoy and 19.7% yoy respectively.

Domestic sales were led by the formulation segment which grew by 14.4% yoy,

and the wellness segment, which grew by 26.4% yoy during the quarter. Exports

growth on the other hand was driven by Europe, which grew by 36.0% yoy. The US

on the other hand grew by 9.9% yoy. Emerging markets grew by 85.6% yoy during

the period.

The growth in the US exports was subdued due to lack of new products along with

price erosion among its key products; the company has guided for 22 approvals in

the US in FY2014.

In the domestic markets, the Management indicated that the new pricing policy

could lead to some near-term disruptions, tentatively pushing turnover down by

~2.5%.

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Strengthening its regulatory pipeline, the company filed 33 ANDAs during the

year, taking the cumulative filings to 173. The group received 15 ANDA approvals

during the year, taking the total to 76 product approvals. The company filed 25

additional dossiers for new products in the European markets, taking thecumulative number of new product dossier filings to 161. The company filed 18

dossiers in Brazil taking the cumulative filings to 100. In Mexico, it filed 6 new

product dossiers, taking the cumulative filings to 20.

Exhibit 3:Sales trend in the US and Europe

353 359367

392 388

7185 76

11296

0

80

160

240

320

400

480

4QFY2012 1QFY2013 2QFY2013 3QFY2013 4QFY2013

US Euro e

(`c

r)


For 4QFY2013, the domestic segment reported a 15.0% yoy growth, with the

formulations segment registering a 14.4% yoy growth. In the consumer healthcaredivision, Cadila grew 26.4% during the period. Animal healthcare, on the other

hand, grew by 6.8% yoy.

Exhibit 4:Sales trend in domestic formulation and consumer divisions

499

582 602 570 571

86 103 97 102108

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700


Domestic Formulation Consumer division

(

`

cr)


On the CRAMS front, the company generated sales of `115cr (`114cr), reporting a

growth of 1.1% yoy.

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OPM dips by 170bps yoy

During the quarter, the companys gross margin dipped to 60.5%, a contraction of

262bps. This led the OPM to contract to 15.3% (17.0%), a contraction of 170bpsyoy. During the quarter, the R&D expenditure was ~8.1% of net sales vs 6.6% of

net sales during 4QFY2012.

Exhibit 5:OPM trend

17.0 16.9

17.9

13.6

15.3

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0


(%)


Net profit grew by 53.6% yoy:Cadilas net profit grew by 53.6% yoy to `262cr(`171cr), higher than our estimate of `146cr. This was on account of a tax write

back during the quarter. The tax write back expenses were recorded at `58cr for

the quarter.

Exhibit 6:Adjusted Net profit trend

171

195

149

103

262

0

50

100

150

200

250

300


(`cr)


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Concall takeaways

The company maintained its vision of being a US$3bn company by 2015 (ieFY2016). The key growth drivers for the same would be the US and Indian

markets.

The supply of injectible products to the US has resumed from the Moraiyafacility.

The transdermal facility is expected to undergo a USFDA audit in 2QFY2014. The growth in US exports was subdued due to lack of new products along with

price erosion among its key products. The Management guided for 22

approvals in FY2014 and 20% growth in the region.

In domestic markets, the Management indicated that the new pricing policycould lead to some near-term disruptions, pushing turnover down by ~2.5%.

Tax rate guidance reduced from 25-27% of PBT to 15% of PBT in FY2014. The Management has guided for a capex of `600cr for FY2014.

Recommendation rationale

Strong domestic portfolio: Cadila is the fifth largest player in the domestic market,with sales of about `2,987cr in FY2013, contributing 47% to its top-line. The

company enjoys leadership position in the CVS, GI, women healthcare and

respiratory segments, with a sales force of 4,500 headcounts. The company, on anaggressive front, launched more than 90 new products in FY2013, including line

extensions, of which 10 were for the first time.

During FY2008-13, the company reported an ~15% CAGR in its top-line in the

domestic formulation business.

Further, the company has a strong consumer division through its stake in Zydus

Wellness, which has premium brands, such as Sugarfree, Everyuth and Nutralite,

under its umbrella. This segment, which contributes ~6.5% to sales, posted a

strong growth in FY2013, registering a growth of 19.0% yoy during the year.

Going forward, the company expects the segment to grow at an above-industryaverage growth rate of 1518% on the back of new product launches and field

force expansion. During FY2013-15E, we expect the domestic segment to grow at

a CAGR of 15.4%.

Exports on a strong footing: Cadila has a two-fold focus on exports, wherein it istargeting developed as well as emerging markets, which contributed around 53%

to its FY2013 top line. The company has developed a formidable presence in the

developed markets of US, Europe (France and Spain) and Japan. In the US, the

company achieved critical scale of `1,500cr on the sales front in FY2013.

The growth in the US exports was subdued, on back of lack of new products along

with price erosion among its key products; the company guided for 22 approvals

in FY2014 and 20% growth in the region. In Europe, the companys growth going

forward would be driven by new product launches and improvement in margin by

product transfer to Indian facilities. In emerging markets, Cadila is aggressively

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May 31, 2013 6

targeting Brazil and the CIS region. Overall, we expect exports to grow at a CAGR

of 20% during the period.

Outlook and valuation

We expect Cadilas net sales to post an 18.1% CAGR to `8,590cr and EPS to

report a 19.1% CAGR to `45.4 over FY201315E. While we have revised the OPM

downwards from 18.0% to 15.5% during the next two years, given the revision in

the tax guidance, the earning momentum is expected to be maintained. Werecommend a Buy with a revised target price of `909.Exhibit 7:Key AssumptionsKey assumptions FY2014E FY2015EDomestic growth (%) 13.0 16.0

Exports growth (%) 20.0 20.0

Growth in employee expenses (%) 18.3 18.0

Operating margins (excl tech. know-how fees) (%) 15.5 15.5

Capex (` cr) 650 650


Exhibit 8:One-year forward PE band

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Apr-06

Jul-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

Jan-13

Apr-13

Price 7x 14x 21x 28x


Company background: Cadila Healthcares operations range from API to

formulations, animal health products and cosmeceuticals. The group hasoperations across USA, Europe, Japan, Brazil, South Africa and 25 other emerging

markets. Having already achieved the US$1bn mark in 2011, it shall achieve

sales of over US$3bn by 2015 and be a research-driven pharmaceutical

company by 2020.

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Exhibit 9:Recommendation SummaryCompany Reco CMP Tgt. price Upside FY2015E FY123-15E FY2015E

(`) (`) % PE (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) CAGR in EPS (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)Alembic Pharma. Neutral 136 - - 9.8 1.3 6.9 26.1 34.0 34.7Aurobindo Pharma Buy 171 264 54.4 8.9 1.1 6.9 58.2 12.0 18.0

Cadila Healthcare Buy 774 909 17.4 17.0 2.1 13.3 12.7 15.4 23.1Cipla Buy 370 444 20.0 16.7 2.5 11.4 15.9 15.7 15.9Dr Reddy's Buy 2,093 2,535 21.1 16.5 2.4 11.7 12.8 18.3 21.8

Dishman Pharma Buy 71 206 190.6 3.4 0.8 3.9 38.8 12.0 13.7

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,507 - - 30.1 5.9 20.6 6.1 36.1 31.0

Indoco Remedies Buy 63 78 23.8 8.1 0.8 5.3 15.8 15.3 14.7

Ipca labs Accumulate 594 676 13.8 13.2 1.9 9.1 27.3 26.0 25.3

Lupin Accumulate 740 877 18.5 17.7 2.3 11.0 29.1 28.5 24.8

Ranbaxy* Neutral 375 - - 16.7 1.2 9.7 (6.8) 13.1 19.1Sanofi India* Neutral 2,518 - - 26.3 2.5 15.1 13.4 15.9 16.7

Sun Pharma Neutral 1046 - - 25.4 6.1 15.0 18.8 29.4 22.0

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year ending

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Profit & Loss statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EGross sales 3,614 4,521 5,181 6,285 7,353 8,677Less: Excise duty 40 56 91 129 74 87

Net sales 3,574 4,465 5,090 6,155 7,280 8,590Other operating income 113 166 173 203 203 203

Total operating income 3,687 4,630 5,263 6,358 7,482 8,793% chg 25.9 25.6 13.7 20.8 17.7 17.5

Total expenditure 2,881 3,604 4,179 5,232 6,152 7,259

Net raw materials 1,178 1,475 1,679 2,320 2,744 3,238

Other mfg costs 150 162 320 387 457 540

Personnel 393 549 751 903 1,068 1,260

Other 1,159 1,417 1,429 1,622 1,882 2,221

EBITDA 694 861 911 923 1,128 1,331% chg 28.3 24.1 5.8 1.4 22.2 18.0

(% of Net Sales) 19.4 19.3 17.9 15.0 15.5 15.5

Depreciation& amortisation 134 127 158 183 221 254

EBIT 560 734 753 740 907 1,077% chg 30.5 31.1 2.6 (1.7) 22.5 18.8

(% of Net Sales) 15.7 16.4 14.8 12.0 12.5 12.5

Interest & other charges 82 70 185 169 180 180

Other income 16 13 53 37 37 37

(% of PBT) 3 2 7 5 4 3

Recurring PBT 606 842 794 811 967 1,137% chg 53.9 39.0 (5.7) 2.1 19.1 17.6

Extraordinary expense/(Inc.) 5 - 3 - - -

PBT (reported) 602 842 794 811 967 1,137Tax 74.1 106.4 113.0 119.5 145.0 170.6

(% of PBT) 12.3 12.6 14.2 14.7 15.0 15.0

PAT (reported) 527 736 681 692 822 967Less: Minority interest (MI) 22.9 25.1 28.6 36.4 36.4 36.4

PAT after MI (reported) 505 711 653 655 785 930ADJ. PAT 509 711 650 655 785 930% chg 55.5 39.6 (8.6) 0.8 19.8 18.5(% of Net Sales) 14.1 15.9 12.8 10.6 10.8 10.8

Adj.Basic EPS (`) 24.9 34.7 31.7 32.0 38.3 45.4Adj. Fully Diluted EPS ( ) 24.9 34.7 31.7 32.0 38.3 45.4% chg 3.6 39.6 (8.6) 0.8 19.8 18.5

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Balance Sheet (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity share capital 68 102 102 102 102 102Reserves & Surplus 1,560 2,069 2,471 2,938 3,548 4,303

Shareholders funds 1,629 2,171 2,574 3,041 3,652 4,407Minority interest 39 67 90 119 156 192Total loans 1,091 1,092 2,289 2,681 2,681 2,681

Other Long Term Liabilities 19 43 47 43 43

Long Term Provisions 62 79 64 76 76

Deferred tax liability 114 113 119 100 119 119

Total liabilities 2,872 3,523 5,193 6,054 6,608 7,399APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross block 2,074 2,317 3,008 4,105 4,755 5,405

Less: Acc. depreciation 873 969 1,175 1,358 1,579 1,833

Net block 1,201 1,348 1,833 2,747 3,176 3,572Capital Work-in-Progress 248 431 484 248 248 248

Goodwill 484 484 1,015 862 862 862

Investments 21 21 24 21 21 21Long Term Loans and Adv. 201 263 411 314 371Current assets 1,775 2,125 2,760 3,191 3,730 4,327

Cash 251 295 467 582 506 583

Loans & advances 307 411 275 279 337 337

Other 1,217 1,420 2,019 2,330 2,887 3,407

Current liabilities 866 1,087 1,186 1,426 1,744 2,002

Net Current assets 909 1,038 1,574 1,765 1,987 2,326Mis. Exp. not written off 10 - - - - -

Total assets 2,872 3,523 5,193 6,054 6,608 7,399

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Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EProfit before tax 602 842 794 811 967 1,137

Depreciation 134 127 158 183 221 254(Inc)/Dec in WC 3 (286) (427) (223) (201) (319)

Less: Other income 16 13 53 37 37 37

Direct taxes paid 77 106 113 119 145 171

Cash Flow from Opr n. 646 564 359 614 805 865(Inc.)/Dec.in Fixed Assets (299) (291) (743) (861) (650) (650)

(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments (84) (0) (4) 3 - -

Other income 16 13 53 37 37 37

Cash Flow from Investing (368) (278) (694) (821) (613) (613)Issue of Equity - - - - - -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans (177) 7 1,238 382 7 -

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 75 (176) (175) (175) (175) (175)

Others (177) (72) (557) 115 (100) 1

Cash Flow from Financing (279) (242) 506 322 (268) (175)Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (1) 45 171 115 (76) 77

Opening Cash balances 252 251 295 467 582 506Closing Cash balances 251 295 467 582 506 583

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Key RatiosY/E March FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 31.1 22.3 24.4 24.2 20.2 17.0

P/CEPS 24.6 18.9 19.6 18.9 15.7 13.4

P/BV 9.7 7.3 6.2 5.2 4.3 3.6

Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

EV/Sales 4.7 3.7 3.4 2.9 2.4 2.1

EV/EBITDA 24.0 19.2 19.2 19.1 15.8 13.3

EV / Total Assets 5.8 4.7 3.4 2.9 2.7 2.4

Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 24.9 34.7 31.7 32.0 38.3 45.4

EPS (fully diluted) 24.9 34.7 31.7 32.0 38.3 45.4

Cash EPS 31.5 41.0 39.5 41.0 49.3 57.9

DPS - 6.3 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5

Book Value 79.7 106.1 125.7 148.5 178.4 215.2

Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 15.7 16.4 14.8 12.0 12.5 12.5

Tax retention ratio 87.7 87.4 85.8 85.3 85.0 85.0

Asset turnover (x) 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4

ROIC (Post-tax) 20.1 22.7 16.8 12.8 13.7 14.5

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 6.1 5.6 9.4 5.8 5.7 5.7

Leverage (x) 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5Operating ROE 29.5 30.3 20.8 17.7 18.8 19.2

Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 20.2 22.9 17.3 13.2 14.3 15.4

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 30.9 34.9 27.2 19.5 19.4 20.1

ROE 35.6 37.4 27.4 23.3 23.5 23.1

Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7

Inventory / Sales (days) 67 62 66 66 66 65

Receivables (days) 47 49 57 54 53 52

Payables (days) 72 80 49 42 43 42

WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 65 55 64 66 65 67

Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5

Net debt to EBITDA 1.2 0.9 2.0 2.3 1.9 1.6

Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 6.8 10.5 4.1 4.4 5.0 6.0

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May 31 2013 12

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Disclosure of Interest Statement Cadila

1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

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Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

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Documents

Cadila 4Q FY 2013