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Slocan Integral Forestry CooperativePublic Presentation
February 1-2, 2017 New Denver - Winlaw, BC
Greg Utzig Kutenai Nature Investigations Ltd.Nelson, BC CANADA
Climate Disruption
What does it mean for wildfire and ecosystems?Should we care?
Can we do anything?
Part 3 – Ecosystem Change Mechanismsand Possible Responses
l Global climate disruption – What is happening? and Why?
l What do local climate projections indicate?
l What may this mean for local ecosystems?
l What mechanisms may contribute to change?l What can we do?
2
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Projected Changes in Snow vs. Rain
3
Nelson
Castlegar Creston
Reduction in Snow Cover
4From: Schnorbus et al. 2011 & Murdock et al. 2007 – VIC model
CurrentClimate
2020s(+1.7 C)
2040s(+2.25 C)
April 1 – 1970s vs. 2050s (% change Snow Water Equivalent)
April 1Snow Water
Equivalent (mm)
>
Nelson
Glacial Retreat
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• Short-term increased summer flows
• Long-term decreased summer flows
• Increased stream temperatures
From:Menounos et al. 2006 CBT & Vaux. BC Parks
Nelson
Changes in Seasonal Flows
6
Duncan Riverat Duncan Dam
2050s
1
5
43
2
From: Schnorbus et al. 2011- VIC model & Smith 2013 – BC Hydro
1961-90
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep OctOct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
1. Higher winter flows2. Earlier snowmelt3. Higher peakflow4. Earlier peakflow5. Lower summer/fall flows
Bull River Mica DamSalmo River
Each River System Will Have A Unique Response
Cold-Water Fish GuildsCurrently Suitable Habitat
for Juvenile Bull Trout
~ 1.6 °C Increase
~ 5.0 °C Increase
Dan Isaak, USFS, Boise, ID & Peter Tschaplinski, BC MoF
q Habitat loss for cold water species, potential increase for warm water
q Loss of streamside vegetation due to fire/ insects
q Competition from invadersq Reduced low flows - de-
watering (loss of glaciers)q Change in peak flows affecting
spawning, egg incubation and rearing habitat
q Increased sedimentation from storm events
q Increased flood events degrading habitat
q Fragmentation of habitatsq Lake thermocline modificationsq Increased summer and winter
fish kills in lakes
Potential ClimateChange Impacts
Favourable Stressful Fatal
Salmon
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Loss of connectivity
All RLs1,2,3,11,12
RL 12
RegionalLandscapes
(RLs)
8
Regional Fire History
12
12 3
11
All RLs
9Touchstones Archives, Nelson
Mid West Kootenay Area Burned
Mid Subregion Predictorsq Mean maximum temperature of hottest month (+)q June mean maximum temperature (+)q July and August precipitation (-)
0. 1
1. 0
10. 0
100. 0
1000. 0
10000. 0
100000. 0
1000000. 0
Year1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Actual valuesPredicted values
r2=.60
Sitkum2007
Jordan 2007
Kutetl 2003
MultipleRegression
Analysis
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Historic and Projected Area BurnedMid West Kootenays – Regression Results
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Slocan Valley:Selected Fire
Predictor Variables
New Denver
SouthernSlocanValley
Historic and projected future summer temperatures
Data from EnvironmentCanada and ClimateBC
Data from EnvironmentCanada and ClimateBC;(Perry Siding, Cresent
Valley and South Slocan)AR5 15GCM mean
RCP 4.5 & 8.5
AR5 15GCM meanRCP 4.5 & 8.5
Projected Changes in
Area Burned:Western USA
12National Research Council. 2011. Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia. p. 180.
Percentage increasein area burned foreach 1oC increasein global average
temperature
515%
656%
(relative to 1950-2003 median)
Nelson
Insects/ Pathogens /Decline Syndromes
l Tree decline – drought/ resistancel Bark Beetles
q Mountain pine beetle, spruce bark beetle, Ips beetles, Douglas-fir beetle …..
l Defoliators, blights, pathogensq Spruce budworm, dothistroma, larch needle
cast, root disease
l Complex Interactionsq Birch die-back, yellow cedar, 5-needle pines
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From: Raffa et al. 2008(A) Regions(B) Elevation (C) Stem diameter (D) Genus(E) Fire return interval
Climatic Extremes – 2013 Example
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Extreme Precipitation Event (BC aftermath of Calgary floods)
Precipitation June 18-21, 2013
Buhl Creek
Upper Elk River
Schroeder CreekFry Creek
Hamill Creek
Photos: Peter Jordan, Peter Holmes, Tina Zimmermann, Bob Yetter
Lower Hamill Creek
Upper Hamill Creek
Climatic Extremes – 2012 Example
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• 4 people killed• 4 houses destroyed• 6 properties damaged/
loss of access• Community water
system destroyed• Main road destroyed• Damage to utilities• Ongoing future risks
Monthly Precipitation/ Rapid Snowmelt - Johnson’s Landing
Increased Soil Moisture
Decreased Soil Strength
Landslide (July 12, 2012)
Impacts
TMTV
0
50
100
150
200
250
Prec
ipita
tion
(mm
)
June Precipitation: 1901 to 2012
Mean 1901-2000: 61 mm
2012: 206 mm
Maximum 1901-2000(1963): 120 mm
(preliminary data, subject to correction)
Climatic Interactions – 2003/2004
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Heat Wave / Drought / Fire / Rainstorm - Kuskanook
Water–repellent Soils
Summer Rain Storm
Debris Flow (2004)
Impacts
Upslope Wildfire (2003)
• 2 houses destroyed• Other buildings damaged• Highway blocked•Ongoing future risks
Photos: Peter Jordan
17
Springer CreekFire 2007
SlocanLake
Van Tuyl Creeks
BARC Burn severity data USDA For. ServiceLANDSAT image2007-08-15
P. Jordan,R. Davies, A. Covert, BCMoF
P. Bullock, 17 May 2008
P. Jordan, 6 September 2007
P. Jordan, 22 June 2010 BC MoT 17 May 2008
Debris Flows 2008-10
l Global climate disruption – What is happening? and Why?
l What do local climate projections indicate?
l What may this mean for local ecosystems?
l What mechanisms may contribute to change?l What can we do?
18
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
19
Water
Fire
Reorganization
Geomorphic Processes
AdaptationManagement / Policy ResponseHuman Society
Ecosystem Services - Resources - Natural Hazards
Human Activities
ClimateTemperature / Precipitation
Seasonal / Annual VariabilityExtremes
TopographyParent
Material
Epidemic Pests/
PathogensHydrologic Processes ?
Windthrow
AquaticRiparian
TerrestrialSpeciesHabitats
SpeciesHabitats
Soils
ClimateChange
InvasiveSpecies
Mitigation
Mitigation – GHG Reduction
l Increased Energy Efficiency/ Conservationl Alternative Energy Sources
q Hydro-electricq Solarq Windq Geothermalq Biomass
l Carbon Capture/ Storageq Burial/ bedrock storageq Biomass/ organic matter sequestration 20
interventions to reduce the greenhouse
gas emissions and/or enhance greenhouse gas
sinksFrom: IPCC 2007
212015 2020 2025 2030
2005 trajectory
2015 policiesUnconditional Paris pledgesConditional Paris pledges
< 1.5o C increase (>50% probability)
< 2.0oC increase (>66% probability)
60
40
50
Tota
l glo
bal G
HG
emis
sion
s (G
tCO
2eq
uiv.
) 52.7 GtCO2e in 2014increasing at 2-3%/yr
Mitigation – Where are we at today?
Adapted from: UNEP 2016 The Emissions Gap Report
The Gap
NOT where we need to be
22
Guardian:1-5 & 1-18-17. NSW Rural Fire Service/AAP
Record-breaking extreme weather in Australia devastates ecosystems
Deadly wildfire razes entire town in Chile:'Literally like Dante's Inferno'
Guardian: Reuters 1-25 & 26-17
Santa Olga Martin Bernetti—AFP/Getty Images NASA Earth Observatory; Jeff Schmaltz
New Brunswick Ice Storm 2017
In the last fewweeks …..
Canadian Press:Diane Doiron & Ron Ward
Adaptation – Reducing Vulnerability (1)
l Enabling Resistancel Promoting Resiliencel Assisting Responsel Accepting Changes 23
Broad Adaptation Strategies
initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and humansystems against actual or expected
climate change effects From: IPCC 2007
Adaptation – Reducing Vulnerability (2)
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l Research anticipated changesl Communication (all levels/ all departments)l Encourage active adaptive managementl Mainstream climate change activitiesl Monitor changes as they occurl Understand uncertainty – plan for the unexpected
Adaptation Preparation/ Management
Adaptation – Reducing Vulnerability (3)
l Enabling Resistanceq increasing fire fighting capabilitiesq treating insect/ disease outbreaksq irrigation
l Promoting Resilienceq stand treatments for reducing the risk of crown firesq thinning to reduce competition for waterq doubling culvert capacities/ rehabilitating roadsq increasing redundancy in reservesq reducing other stressors (e.g. invasive species)
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Adaptation – Reducing Vulnerability (4)
l Assisting Responseq promoting species migration into projected rangesq harvesting vulnerable tree speciesq planting species suitable for projected conditionsq managing for connectivity
l Accepting Changesq adjusting AACs for catastrophic eventsq emphasizing salvage harvestingq enabling/ promoting in-migration of heat tolerant species
26
Fuel Management Treatments
27
Reduced Stand Level Hazard
INCREASED
Before After
Kootenay Conservation Strategy
28
• Habitat corridors and mountain passes to facilitate wildlife range changes
• Improved conservation measures during resource extraction to reduce habitat degradation
• stand level retention• access management
• Strategic increases in protected areas to provide refugia
• Habitat treatments to increase resilience to fire and other extreme events
• Increased conservation of riparian areas to protect wetlands and aquatic ecosystems
Mapping andManagement Strategies
Grizzly
Best Options
29
l For example:q Using wood from interface fire treatments to displace
fossil fuels for heatq Protecting forests to sequester carbon and assist
ecosystem adaptationq Increasing building insulation to reduce fuel use and
adapt to summer heat waves
Actions that achieve adaptation and mitigation
30
“We have options, but the past is not one of them”Sauchyn and Kulshreshtha 2008, p.295
“Times have changed – no longer is our goal sustainable development …. our goal must now be sustainable survival”
Blackstock 2008, p.15
www.kootenayresilience.org
It is all about that thin little layer of air
