Chuong 3 - Mo Hinh Mundell - Fleming Va Tong Cau Trong Nen KT Mo (Gui SV)

KINH T V M IICHNG III: M HNH MUNDELL FLEMING V TNG CU TRONG NN KINH T M

Nguyen Thi Hong - FTU

CHNG IV: M HNH MUNDELL FLEMING V TNG CU TRONG NN KINH T M I. M hnh Mundell FlemingM hnh mang tn 2 nh kinh t hc l Robert Mundell v James Marcus Fleming. y l MH c Mundell v Fleming pht trin mt cch c lp trong nhng nm 1960. MH cho thy


I. M hnh Mundell FlemingTrong nn kinh t ng chng ta c:Phng trnh ng IS:

Phng trnh ng LM: M hnh ny xc nh ng thi mc TN thc t hay sn lng (Y) v li sut cn bng trong nn KT ng vi iu kin


I. M hnh Mundell FlemingTrong nn KT m,

Nhng ng IS c thm 2 thnh t l xut khu (X) v nhp khu (M). Phng trnh ng IS lc ny l:

Trong


I. M hnh Mundell Fleming* Gi nh:Nn KT cn nhiu ngun lc cha c s dng ht, do vy tng cu quyt nh mc SLCB.Mc gi khng i T l lm pht trong nc bng t l lm pht quc t.


I. M hnh Mundell FlemingTiu dng v u t ging nh trong nn KT ng.

Li sut khng nh hng n TD m ch nh hng n u t I = I (r) v cu tin L = L(Y, r).Nn KT nh, m ca, vn t do lun chuyn, tc l LS trong nc s c xu hng iu chnh bng LS th gii, T gi hi oi l TGH


I. M hnh Mundell FlemingC 2 cch biu din m hnh Mundell Fleming trn h trc ta : Cch 1: Ging nh m hnh IS LM trong nn KT ng ta c th biu din trnCch 2: i vi mt nn KT nh, m ca, vn t do lun chuyn, LS l bin ngoi sinh nn ta c th biu din trn


1. M hnh trn h trc Y rTng t nh trong nn KT ng,

Tuy nhin, trong nn KT m,


1. M hnh trn h trc Y rBn cnh hai ng IS LM, trong nn kinh t nh, m ca, vn t do lun chuyn chng ta c thm ng BP (Balance of Payment).


1. M hnh trn h trc Y r


2. M hnh trn h trc Y ea. Th trng hng ha v ng IS*ng IS* l tp hp tt c nhng im biu th mi quan h gia TGH (e) v SLCB tha mn iu kin th trng hng ha cn bng (APE= Y) vi mc li sut r = r* cho trc.


2. M hnh trn h trc Y eKhi cc yu t kinh t khc khng i


2. M hnh trn h trc Y eb. Th trng tin t v ng LM*ng LM* l tp hp tt c nhng im biu th mi quan h gia TGH (e) v sn lng tha mn iu kin th trng tin t cn bng M/P = L(Y, r*) vi mc li sut r = r* cho trc.Vi r* c quyt nh ngoi sinh bi th trng ti chnh quc t, ch c mt mc thu nhp duy nht cu tin L(Y, r*) bng mc cung tin thc t cho trc.


2. M hnh trn h trc Y e


3. Cn bng chung trn cc th trng Trn h trc Y r, trng thi cn bng c xc lp ti

Trn h trc Y e, trng thi cn bng c xc lp ti


3. Cn bng chung trn cc th trng


II. M hnh Mundell Fleming trong iu kin TGH th ni1. Chnh sch ti kha Gi s CP thc hin CSTK MR ta s c: Trn h trc Y r:


1. Chnh sch ti kha


1. Chnh sch ti kha

Trn h trc Y e:

Trong c 2 trng hp,


1. Chnh sch ti kha


1. Chnh sch ti khaNh vy, trong ch TGH th ni v vn t do lun chuyn,


2. Chnh sch tin t Gi s NHTW thc hin CSTT m rngTrn h trc Y r:


2. Chnh sch tin t

Dng vn chy ra nc ngoi s chm dt khi Nh vy, trn h trc Y r,


2. Chnh sch tin t


2. Chnh sch tin t Trn h trc Y e:

Kt qu, trong c 2 h trc,


2. Chnh sch tin t


2. Chnh sch tin t Nh vy, CSTT

CSTT tc ng khng cn thng qua li sut v n c c nh mc LS th gii m thng qua TGH v do l XK rng.


3. Chnh sch hn ch thng mi Chnh sch hn ch thng mi

Ti mi mc t gi cho trc, chnh sch ny lm gim NK, tng XK rng v dch chuyn ng IS* sang phi. Kt qu l TGH tng, sn lng khng i.


CS hn ch TM trong ch TGH th ni


III. M hnh Mundell Fleming trong iu kin TGH c nh Trong CTGH c nh, c nh TGH NHTW phi hy sinh quyn kim sot cung tin. CSTT phi iu chnh cung tin bo v mc t gi c nh c cng b trc. Nu cu ngoi t tng, NHTW phi bn ngoi t v rt bt ni t v. Nu cung ngoi t tng, NHTW phi bm thm ni t mua ngoi t.


1. Chnh sch ti kha Nu CP thc hin CSTK MR

duy tr TGH,


1. Chnh sch ti kha Trn c h trc Y - e, c IS*/LM*

Kt qu l LS khng i, SL tng ln v c khuch i theo s nhn chi tiu nh m hnh giao im Keynes d on. Nh vy, di ch t gi c nh v vn t do lun chuyn,


CSTK trong ch TGH c nh


2. Chnh sch tin t Gi s NHTW thc hin CSTT MR tng SL. MSr

duy tr TGH c nh,


2. Chnh sch tin t Trn c 2 h trc,

Tuy nhin, hot ng mua ngoi t duy tr TGH lm gim cung tin

Do , vi TGH c nh,


CSTT trong ch TGH c nh


3. Chnh sch hn ch thng mi S hn ch thng mi bi v ging nh CSTK, bin php ny lm

Kt qu l


CS hn ch TM trong ch TGH c nh


IV. S khc bit li sut gia cc nc Chng ta vn gi thit vn t do lun chuyn (hay vn lun chuyn hon ho), tc l ti sn trong nc v nc ngoi thay th hon ho cho nhau, cc nh u t s di chuyn vn cn bng LS gia cc nc. Tuy nhin, trong thc t l ti sn trong nc v nc ngoi c th thay th cho nhau nhng khng hon ho, hay ni cch khc


IV. S khc bit li sut gia cc nc Nu ti sn khng thay th hon ho th

Cc nhn t c th lm cho cc ti sn trong nc v nc ngoi khng th thay th hon ho cho nhau l: s khc bit v ri ro i vi ti sn, ri ro do s thay i TGH, chi ph giao dch, thiu thng tin v cc ti sn nc ngoi, chnh tr bt n,


IV. S khc bit li sut gia cc nc tnh n s khc bit v li sut, gi s LS trong nc bng LS th gii cng thm mt mc bo him , tc lS gia tng mc bo him ny lm li sut trong nc tng ln. Khi li sut trong nc tng ln s c 2 tc ng:


IV. S khc bit li sut gia cc nc LS tng s lm cho T gim ko theo s gim st trong tng cu. Hu qu l

LS tng s lm cho cu tin gim. Vi cung tin khng i, lc ny TN (Y) s tng ln to s cn bng trn th trng tin t. Kt qu cui cng l


IV. S khc bit li sut gia cc nc


Nguyen Thi Hong - FTUNguyen Thi Hong - FTU

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Chuong 3 - Mo Hinh Mundell - Fleming Va Tong Cau Trong Nen KT Mo (Gui SV)