Chuong 6 Phan Tich Ky Thuat

Trn Tun Vinh 1

Phn tch k thut

Technical Analysis (TA) Ths. Trn Tun Vinh GV. i hc Ngn hng TP.HCM

Trn Tun Vinh 2

Nhng cu hi nh u t thng

t ra? 1. Giai on ny u t c cha?

2. Nn u t vo c phiu no? Hay c phiu ny u t c khng?

3. Thi im no nn mua?

4. Mc gi ny cht li c cha? Hay th trng cn tng na khng?

5. Gi xung bao nhiu th ct l hay gi xung qu c nn ct l khng?

Trn Tun Vinh 3

Ti liu tham kho James Dicks (2004), Forex Made Easy: 6 ways to trade the Dollars, McGraw-

Hill, USA.

Nelson Tao (1998), Technical Analysis is not magic, it is not an art, it is not a science, it is simply your own effort anh discipline, Standard Chartered Bank, Singapore.

Martin Pring (1997), Martin Prings introdution to technical analysis, McGraw-Hill, USA.

Martin J.Pring (2002), How to select stocks using Technical Analysis, McGraw-Hill, USA.

Alan Tan (2006), Focus on Technical Analysis, Reuters.

John J. Murphy (1998), Technical Analysis of Financial Markets: a comprehensive guide to trading methods and applications, Prentice-Hall.

Robert D. Edwards & John Magee (2001), Technical Analysis of Stock Trend, Amacom Management.

Martin J. Pring (1991), Technical Analysis Explained, McGraw-Hill, USA

Hc vin ti chnh c (CEREFI) (2006), Phn tch k thut u t chng khon, TP.HCM

Trn Tun Vinh 4

Nhng iu cn c nhn thc

Ngui c thi quen, th trng c to bi con ngi; v vy, th trng cng c thi quen;

bit c thi quen ca th trng, s kim sot c th trng

2007 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Mar Apr May

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650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200VNINDEX (356.080, 357.510, 348.830, 350.140, -1.17999)

Nhim v ca nh phn tch k thut l phi tm kim c thi quen c th ca tng loi th trng, t , d on din bin gi trong thi gian ti, bng cch s dng cc phng tin PTKT c chun ha

Trn Tun Vinh 5

Nhng iu cn c nhn thc

PTKT l mt ngh thut. Chnh v vy, i hi ngi thc hin PTKT phi linh hot trong t duy

v khng ngng sng to. PTKT s tr nn km hiu qu nu ngi phn tch cu ton v mong

mun mi th tht chnh xc; vic i PTKT trng en r rng s lm cho ngi phn tch mt i

c hi nhn thc c din bin ca th trng.

Vic c gng s dng PTKT d on mt cc chnh xc gi trong tng lai l mt sai lm.

PTKT ch cung cp nhng du hiu v mi tng quan gia cung v cu, t nh hng ti xu

hng gi.

Trn Tun Vinh 6

Ni dung bi ging

Phn 1: Nhng vn c bn ca PTKT

1. Lch s hnh thnh v pht trin ca PTKT

2. Nhng gi nh c bn ca PTKT

3. Cc nh ngha v PTKT

Phn 2: Cc kiu th c bn

1. th ng thng (Line Chart)

2. th thanh (Bar Chart)

3. th hnh nn (CandleStick Chart)

4. ngha ca cc yu t trong Bar Chart v CandleStick Chart

Trn Tun Vinh 7

Ni dung bi ging (tt)

Phn 3: L thuyt Dow

1. Gii thiu v Dow

2. Nhng ni dung c bn ca l thuyt Dow

3. Mt s ng dng l thuyt Dow

3.1 Phn tch xu hng ngn hn

3.2 ng xu hng (Trendlines)

4. Hn ch ca l thuyt Dow

Phn 4: Cc cng c phn tch k thut truyn thng

1. Khng c v h tr (Resistance & Support)

2. Cc m hnh gi (Price Patterns)

3. Cc dng thc c bit ca Candlestick (Candlestick Patterns)

Trn Tun Vinh 8

Ni dung bi ging (tt)

Phn 5: Cc ch bo PTKT (Indicators)

1. Nhm ch bo xu hng (Trailing Indicators): MA, MACD, Bolinger Band, Envelopes, MDS, Parabolic SAR

2. Nhm ch bo dao ng (Momentum Indicators): RSI, Stochastic, ROC, Momentum

Phn 6: Cc phn mm PTKT

1. Metastock

2. Netdania.com

Phn 7: Mt s lu khi p dng PTKT

Trn Tun Vinh 9

Phn 1: Nhng vn c ca PTKT

1. Lch s hnh thnh v pht trin PTKT

2. Nhng gi nh c bn ca PTKT

3. Cc nh ngha v PTKT

Trn Tun Vinh 10

Lch s pht trin ca PTKT

Lch s ca Phn tch k thut bt ngun t cch y hn 100 nm, t mt ngi tn l Charles H. Dow, y l cha ca l thuyt Dow v t Wall Street.

William Peter Hamilton l ngi tip tc nghin cu v xut bn cun sch The Stock Market Barometer (Phong v biu th trng chng khon) vo nm 1922, khng nh hn na gi tr l lun ca nhng nghin cu ca Dow.

n thi Schabacker ngi cha ca Phn tch k thut hin i, th mi thc s ra i ci tn Phn tch k thut vi tc phm Stock Market Theory and Practice, Technical Market Analysis and Stock Market Profit.

n thi ca Edward v Magee vi Technical Analysis of Stock Trend (ti bn 8 ln) v sau l John Murphy, Jack Schwager, Martin Pring, th Phn tch k thut mi thc s c pht trin, v tr thnh mt h thng l lun quan trng trong phn tch u t.

Trn Tun Vinh 11

Cc gi nh quan trng ca TA

y c xem l nhng gi nh quan trng i vi gii chuyn mn, nhng i vi

cc tn TA, y l nhng tn iu, v ch khi no chng ta tin vo nhng iu ny th

chng ta mi cm nhn c PTKT.

1. Gi bao hm mi yu t ca th trng, gm c: cc thng tin cng b, cha cng

b, cc k vng ca tng nh u t V vy, h ch quan tm n cc tn hiu t gi ch

khng quan tm n cc nguyn nhn dn n gi tng hay gim. Bi v, nhng thng tin

ny nh hng ti gi s khng bao gi nht qun, m ty thuc k vng ca nh u t

tng giai on.

Trn Tun Vinh 12


Gi phn nh tt c hnh ng th

trng, bao gm:

Thng tin v m

Thng tin ca doanh nghip

Tm l ca nh u t

Nhng thng tin bit v cha bit

..

Khng

cn thit phi phn tch c bn

Trn Tun Vinh 13


2. Gi bin ng theo xu hng: c th trong ngn hn gi bin ng mt cch ngu

hng, nhng nhng ngi theo trng phi TA lun tin rng trong di hn gi s i theo xu

hng

Trn Tun Vinh 14

Trn Tun Vinh 15

Trn Tun Vinh 16

August September Nov ember 2008 February April May June July August September Nov ember 2009 February April May

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250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

VNINDEX (356.080, 357.510, 348.830, 350.140, -1.17999)

VN-Index t 2007 -2009

Trn Tun Vinh 17


3. Bn cht con ngi kh thay i hay th trng c khuynh hng lp li cc thi-quen.

Trn Tun Vinh 18

Martin Pring (1991): Phn tch k thut phn nh quan im cho rng gi bin i

theo xu hng, xu hng ny c hnh thnh do s thay i trong thi ca ngi u t

i vi cung v cu. Ngh thut ca phn tch k thut hin nhin phn tch k thut l

mt ngh thut l ch xc nh c xu hng ngay khi bt u v duy tr u t cho

n khi c cc du hiu cho thy xu hng i chiu.

John Murphy (1986): Phn tch k thut nghin cu bin ng th trng, ch yu s

dng cc th nhm mc ch d bo xu hng gi trong tng lai nu cc nh phn tch

c c ba loi thng tin c bn ca s bin ng th trng l gi, khi lng v trng

thi m ca th trng.

Cc nh ngha v PTKT

Trn Tun Vinh 19

Theo quan im ca Tc gi: PTKT l vic s dng cc d liu qu kh ca gi (bao gm gi

ng ca, m ca, cao nht thp nht) l ch yu v khi lng giao dch (nu c), thng qua mt phn

mm chuyn dng v nn cc dng th ca gi v khi lng; t , tm kim c thi quen bin

ng ca gi trong qu kh, nh d on c xu hng ca gi trong tng lai. Da trn kt qu

ny xut chin lc kinh doanh gm ba bc:

1. Vo th trng (mua hoc bn)

2. Thot khi th trng, kim li (take profit)

3. Ct l (Stop loss)

Cc nh ngha v PTKT

Trn Tun Vinh 20

Phn 2: Cc kiu th c bn

1. th ng thng (Line Chart)

2. th thanh (Bar Chart)

3. th hnh nn (CandleStick Chart)

4. ngha ca cc yu t trong Bar Chart v CandleStick Chart

Trn Tun Vinh 21

th ng thng (Line chart)

th ng thng (Line

chart): l dng th thng

c v bng cch ni cc mc

gi ng ca li vi nhau. Dng

xem xu hng di hn, t

dng kinh doanh ngn hn.

2006 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2007 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008

5000

10000

x100

35404550556065707580859095

100105110115120125130135140145150155160165170175180185190195200205210215220225VNM (168.000, 169.000, 167.000, 168.000, +0.00)

Trn Tun Vinh 22

th thanh (Bar Chart)

th thanh (bar chart): th

thanh c dng ph bin cc nc

phng Ty. Thng thng th

thanh dng ch gi m, ng ca, gi

cao nht, thp nht trong mt n v

thi gian.

Gi c biu din thnh mt ct

thng ng. cao ca ct th hin

khong bin ng gi trong mt n v

thi gian. Vch bn tri biu hin gi

m ca, cn bn phi l gi ng ca.

Trn Tun Vinh 23

Cc dng th c bn

Biu hnh nn (Candlesticks): y l dng biu lu i, do cc thng gia Nht pht minh ra. Candlestick rt d nhn ra thng tin, hnh tng hn so vi cc loi biu khc.

5

2009

12 19 2

February

9 16 23 2

March

9 16

7.7

7.8

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8.0

8.1

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8.6

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9.0

9.1

9.2

9.3

9.4

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9.6

9.7

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10.0

10.1

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11.0

11.1

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11.9VIP (8.20000, 8.20000, 8.10000, 8.10000, +0.0000)

Trn Tun Vinh 24

Candlestick

The highest price: cn trn (gi cao nht)

The lowest price: cn di (gi thp nht

Upper shadow: bng trn

Real body: thn nn, y l phn chnh lch gia gi m ca v ng ca

The opening price: gi m ca

The closing price: gi ng ca

Khong bin ng gi: chnh lch gia gi cao nht v thp nht

Trn Tun Vinh 25

Candlestick

C hai loi hnh cy nn ph bin

Cy nn tng (Bullish): thng thng

c t mu xanh hoc trng, th hin gi

ng ca cao hn gi m ca.

Cy nn gim (Bearish): thng thng

c t mu hoc mu en, th hin

gi ng ca thp hn gi m ca

Trn Tun Vinh 26

Candlestick trong MetaStock

H1

H2

H3

H4

H1: Gi ng ca cao hn gi m ca trong k v gi ng ca k trc

H1: Gi ng ca cao hn gi m ca trong k nhng thp hn gi ng ca k trc

H1: Gi ng ca thp hn gi m ca trong k nhng cao hn gi ng ca k trc

H1: Gi ng ca thp hn gi m ca trong k v gi ng ca k trc

Trn Tun Vinh 27

ngha ca cc yu t trong Bar Chart v CandleStick Chart

Gi m ca th hin nhng phn ng ca cng chng i vi nhng thng tin trc khi

th trng m ca. Nhng nh u t chuyn nghip t giao dch ti mc gi ny, bi v

h hnh ng theo quan im tch cc v cn trng hn i vi nhng g xut hin trn

th trng.

Gi ng ca l mc gi quan trng nht trong mt ngy. Bi v, y l mc gi dng

nh gi gi tr s d trn ti khon nhm tnh ton li l.

Gi cn trn: y l mc gi phn nh lc cu ti a trong ngy

Gi cn di: y l mc gi phn nh lc cung ti a trong ngy

Khong bin ng gi: phn nh mc nhit tnh giao dch ca bn chi phi th

trng

Trn Tun Vinh 28

Phn tch gi ng ca

So snh vi gi ng ca ca ngy lin trc

Nu gi ng ca ca ngy hm nay cao hn gi ng ca ca ngy hm qua th c

ngha l lc mua mnh hn lc bn.

Nu gi ng ca ca ngy hm nay thp hn ngy hm qua c ngha l lc bn mnh

hn lc mua.

Chnh lch gia hai mc gi ng ca cng ln th phn nh lc ca bn chi phi th

trng cng mnh

Trn Tun Vinh 29

Phn tch gi ng ca

V tr ca gi ng ca trong khong bin ng gi

Gi ng ca gn vi mc cn trn trong ngy, ngi mua chi phi th trng vo thi im cui phin.

Gi ng ca gn vi mc cn di trong ngy, ngi bn chi phi th trng vo thi im cui phin.

Gi ng ca gn vi im gia, phn nh khng bn no chi phi th trng vo thi im cui ngy.

Gi ng ca cng gn vi cc u mt bao nhiu th lc chi phi th trng cng mnh by nhiu

Trn Tun Vinh 30

Phn tch gi ng ca

Mi tng quan gia gi ng ca v m ca

Nu gi m ca gn vi mc cn di v gi ng ca gn vi mc

cn trn, ngi mua chi phi th trng c ngy. Mc gn vi cc im

mt cng nhiu th lc chi phi cng ln.

Nu gi m ca gn vi mc cn trn v gi ng ca gn vi mc

cn di, ngi bn chi phi th trng c ngy. Mc gn vi cc im

mt cng nhiu th lc chi phi cng ln.

Nu gi m ca v gi ng ca cng gn im cn trn, phn nh

bn bn chuyn dn quyn kim sot th trng cho bn mua vo cui

phin

Trn Tun Vinh 31

Phn tch gi ng ca

Mi tng quan gia gi ng ca v m ca

Nu gi m ca v gi ng ca cng gn im cn di, phn nh

bn mua chuyn dn quyn kim sot th trng cho bn bn vo cui

phin.

Nu gi m ca nm gia, gi ng ca nm gn cn trn, bn mua

chi phi th trng vo cui phin.

Nu gi m ca nm gia, gi ng ca nm gn cn di, bn bn

chi phi th trng vo cui phin.

Nu gi m ca v gi ng nm gia khong bin ng, khng c

bn no kim sot th trng

Trn Tun Vinh 32

Phn tch khong bin ng gi

Gi ang tng, i km khong bin ng ngy cng m rng, phn nh lc mua mnh dn.

Gi ang gim, i km khong bin ng ngy cng m rng, phn nh lc bn mnh dn.

Gi ang tng, i km khong bin ng ngy cng thu hp, phn nh lc mua yu dn.

Gi ang gim, i km khong bin ng ngy cng thu hp, phn nh lc bn yu dn.

Trn Tun Vinh 33

Phn tch khong bin ng gi

Ngy bin ng trong knh l ngy m ti

khong bin ng gi hon ton nm trong

khong bin ng gi ngy hm trc.

Ngy bin ng ngoi knh l ngy m ti

khong bin ng gi hon ton nm ngoi

khong bin ng gi ngy hm trc.

Khi ngy bin ng trong knh hoc ngoi

knh xut hin, th phn nh xu hng gi hin

ti b yu i

Inside

day

Outside day

Trn Tun Vinh 34

Mt s du hiu o chiu ngn hn

1. o chiu gi ng ca v m ca (Close_Open Reversal)

Xu hng tng: xut hin mt ct gi trong c mc cn trn v cn di

cao nht trong xu hng, trong , gi m ca gn vi mc cn trn v gi ng

ca gn mc cn di nhng vn cao hn gi ng ca ca ngy hm trc

Xu hng gim: xut hin mt ct gi trong c mc cn trn v cn di

thp nht trong xu hng, trong , gi m ca gn vi mc cn di v gi ng

ca gn mc cn trn nhng vn thp hn gi ng ca ca ngy hm trc

Trn Tun Vinh 35


Trn Tun Vinh 36


o chiu gi ng ca (Reversal Bar)

Xu hng tng: xut hin mt ct gi trong c mc cn trn v cn di

cao nht trong xu hng, trong , gi m ca gn vi mc cn trn v gi ng

ca gn mc cn di ng thi thp hn gi ng ca ca ngy hm trc.

Xu hng gim: xut hin mt ct gi trong c mc cn trn v cn di

thp nht trong xu hng, trong , gi m ca gn vi mc cn di v gi ng

ca gn mc cn trn ng thi cao hn gi ng ca ca ngy hm trc.

Trn Tun Vinh 37


ng ca thp hn

ng ca cao hn

Trn Tun Vinh 38


o chiu dng mc kha (Key Reversal)

Xu hng tng:

xut hin mt ct gi c mc cn trn cao nht trong xu hng;

trong , gi m ca cao hn gi ng ca ca ct trc;

nhng gi ng ca li thp hn mc cn di ca ct trc.

Trn Tun Vinh 39


Open above last

close: m ca cao hn ct trc Clsoe be low

previous Low:

ng ca thp hn mc cn di ca ct trc

Trn Tun Vinh 40


o chiu dng mc kha (Key

Reversal)

Xu hng gim:

xut hin mt ct gi c mc cn di

thp nht trong xu hng;

trong , gi m ca thp hn gi ng

ca ca ct trc

nhng gi ng ca li cao hn mc cn

trn ca ct trc.

Close above previous High:

ng ca cao hn mc cn trn ca ct trc.

Open below last Close: m ca thp hn mc ng ca ca ct trc

Trn Tun Vinh 41


o chiu dng mc cu (Hook Reversal)

Xu hng tng:

Xut hin mt ct c mc cn trn thp hn v

mc cn di cao hn ct trc.

V gi m ca gn vi mc cn trn (Open

near High), gi ng ca gn vi mc cn di

(Close near Low)

Trn Tun Vinh 42


o chiu dng mc cu (Hook Reversal)

Xu hng gim:

Xut hin mt ct c mc cn trn thp hn

v mc cn di cao hn ct trc.

V gi m ca gn vi mc cn di (Open

near Low), gi ng ca gn vi mc cn trn

(Close near High)

Trn Tun Vinh 43


o chiu dng hn o (Island Reversal)

Xu hng tng

Xut hin mt ct gi c khong trng (Gap)

gia mc cn di v mc cn trn ca ct gi

trc .

Tip theo sau l mt ct gi c khong trng

gia mc cn trn v mc cn di ca ct trc

.

Trn Tun Vinh 44


o chiu dng hn o (Island

Reversal)

Xu hng tng

Hoc c th l dng qun o

(Cluster Island Reversal)

Trn Tun Vinh 45


o chiu dng hn o (Island

Reversal)

Xu hng gim

Xut hin mt ct gi c khong trng

(Gap) gia mc cn trn v mc cn di ca

ct gi trc .

Tip theo sau l mt ct gi c khong

trng gia mc cn di v mc cn trn ca

ct trc .

Trn Tun Vinh 46


o chiu dng tm im (Pivot

Point Reversal)

Xu hng ln:

Xut hin mt ct gi vi mc cn

trn v cn di cao nht trong xu hng.

Sau l mt ct gi c mc cn trn

thp hn v ng ca mc gi thp hn

mc cn di.

Trn Tun Vinh 47


o chiu dng tm im (Pivot

Point Reversal)

Xu hng xung:

Xut hin mt ct gi vi mc cn

trn v cn di thp nht trong xu hng.

Sau l mt ct gi c mc cn di

cao hn v ng ca mc gi cao hn

mc cn trn.

Trn Tun Vinh 48


o chiu dng tm im (Pivot Point Reversal): phc hp

Trn Tun Vinh 49

Phn 3: L thuyt Dow

1. Gii thiu v Dow

2. Nhng ni dung c bn ca l thuyt Dow

3. Mt s ng dng ca l thuyt Dow

3.1 Phn tch xu hng ngn hn

3.2 ng xu hng (Trendlines)

4. Hn ch ca l thuyt Dow

Trn Tun Vinh 50

Gii thiu l thuyt DOW

Dow tn y l Charles H.Dow (1851-1902),

l sng lp ca t bo Wall Street Journal; l ngi

khi xng ra trng phi PTKT bng s ra i ca l

thuyt Dow, v l ngi u tin a ra ch s trung

bnh Dow Jones.

L thuyt Dow ngy nay c hon thin v pht

trin bi ba nhn vt:

1. William Hamilton (1922), The Stock Market

Barometer (Phong v biu th trng chng khon).

2. S.A Nelson (1903), The ABC stock Speculation

(Bi hc v lng v u c c phiu).

3. Robert Rhea (1932)

Trn Tun Vinh 51

Nhng ni dung c bn ca l thuyt Dow

6 Nhn nh ca DOW:

1. Phn ln cc chng khon tun

theo xu hng c bn ca th trng.

Xu th xu hng c bn ca th trng

chnh l xu hng ca ch s gi bnh

qun - phn nh xu th chung ca mt

s c phiu i din cho th trng.

2006 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2007 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec 2008 Mar Apr May Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Mar Apr

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220VNMVNM (86.0000, 88.5000, 85.0000, 88.5000, +6.00000)

2006 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2007 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 Mar Apr May Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Mar Apr

200250300350400450500550600650700750800850900950

10001050110011501200

VNINDEX (334.430, 340.010, 334.430, 340.010, +26.2500)

Trn Tun Vinh 52


6 Nhn nh ca DOW:

2. Th trng c 3 s

chuyn dch: S dch

chuyn chnh: (primary

movement), nhng phn

ng th cp: (secondary

reaction), nhng s dch

chuyn nh: (minor

movements)

S dch chuyn chnh: ko di t nhiu thng n vi nm; c bit n vi 2 dng: th trng con b (Bullish) l th trng tng v th trng con gu (Bearish) l th trng gim.

Nhng phn ng th cp: L s st gim ng k trong th trng u c gi ln hoc mt s tng gi ng k trong th trng u c gi xung, Khong cch dch chuyn nhn chung thoi li t 33%-66% (1/3 n 2/3) so vi lung dch chuyn trc , ko di t 3 tun n nhiu thng.

S chuyn dch nh: khng quan trng, chnh l s bin ng gi theo ngy

Trn Tun Vinh 53

Trn Tun Vinh 54


6 Nhn nh ca DOW:

3. Mi lung vn ng chnh

thng xy ra trong ba giai on

ring bit.

Th trng tng (Bullish)

Giai on ly li nim tin (Receiving Cofidence): th hin hnh ng tch ly mua (accumulation phase) c hiu bit ca mt s nh u t, chng li kin chung ca c th trng.

Giai on ci thin li nhun (Improving Earnings): cc cng ty kinh doanh li; u tin l s gia nhp ca cc nh u c, khi xu hng tr nn r rng th cng chng s tham gia.

Giai on u c mnh m (Rampant Speculation): th hin hnh ng mua mnh m ca cc nh u c. Cui giai on ny lm pht bt u xut hin.

Trn Tun Vinh 55

J A S O N D 2004 M A M J J A S O N D 2005 M A M J J A S O N D 2006 M A M J J A S O N D 2007 M A M J J A

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Accumulation

Public Participation

Speculation

Tran Tuan Vinh (2009)

VNINDEX (334.430, 340.010, 334.430, 340.010, +26.2500)

Trn Tun Vinh 56


6 Nhn nh ca

DOW:

3. Mi lung vn

ng chnh thng xy ra

trong ba giai on ring

bit.

Th trng gim

(Bearish)

Giai on mt i hy vng (Abandonment of hopes): th hin hnh ng tch ly bn (accumulation phase) c hiu bit ca mt s nh u t, chng li kin chung ca c th trng, do khng cn hy vng gi tng na.

Giai on st gim li nhun (Decreasing Earnings): LN ca cc cng ty st gim; cng chng tham gi bn c phiu do nhn c nhng thng tin xu t li nhun ca cc cng ty.

Giai on bn cng thng (Distress selling): y l giai on cng chng bn tho trong cng thng do kh bn c d l c phiu tt.

Trn Tun Vinh 57

2006 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2007 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 Mar Apr May Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Mar Apr May Jun

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

HET HY VONGHET HY VONG

LOI NHUAN GIAM

BAN CANG THANG

Tran Tuan VinhVNINDEX (418.750, 427.630, 418.440, 426.430, +14.7900)

Trn Tun Vinh 58


6 Nhn nh ca Dow

4. Gi xc nh xu hng ca th trng: du hiu tng gi c a ra khi s tng gi

lin tip to ra cc nh cao hn v s gim gi xen vo to thnh cc y cao hn. V

ngc li, khi mc gi khng th t n mc gi cao trc , v xung thp hn mc thp

trc l du hiu ca th trng gi xung

Trn Tun Vinh 59


Xc nh th trng gi ln:

Xu hng th trng gi ln bt

u khi ta thy xut hin mt y cao

hn v sau l mt nh cao hn.

Xu hng th trng gi ln kt

thc khi ta thy xut hin mt nh

thp hn v mt y thp hn.

Bt u xu hng tng

Kt thc xu hng tng

Trn Tun Vinh 60


Xc nh th trng gi xung:

Xu hng th trng gi xung bt

u khi ta thy xut hin mt nh thp

hn v sau l mt y thp hn.

Xu hng th trng gi xung kt

thc khi ta thy xut hin mt y cao hn

v sau l mt nh cao hn.

Bt u gi gim

Kt thc gim gi

Trn Tun Vinh 61

ng xu hng (Trendline)

ng xu hng tng (Up trendline): l mt ng thng ni lin cc y v hng

ln trn.

Trn Tun Vinh 62


ng xu hng gim (Down trendline): l mt ng thng ni lin cc nh v hng xung.

Trn Tun Vinh 63


ng xu hng ngang (Sideway/Non trendline): l mt ng thng nm ngang ni

lin cc nh hoc cc y li vi nhau

Trn Tun Vinh 64

Trn Tun Vinh 65

Mt s ng dng quan im 4

2. V ng xu hng:

B1: Xc nh xu hng ca th trng theo quan im 4 ca Dow: Xu hng tng

bt u bng mt y cao hn sau l mt nh cao hn. Cn xu hng gim bt u

bng mt nh thp hn v sau l mt y thp hn.

B2: V ng xu hng tm thi bng cch ni hai im y hng ln i vi xu

hng tng v hai im nh hng xung i vi xu hng gim.

B3: ng xu hng c khng nh khi xut hin im nh th 3 (i vi xu

hng gim) hoc im y th 3 (i vi xu hng tng) tip xc vi ng xu hng

tm thi.

Trn Tun Vinh 66

December 2009 February March April May June July August September Nov ember December 2010 February April

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75P P PResisitance

O

Trendline

KDC (65.0000, 65.0000, 64.0000, 64.0000, +0.000)

Trn Tun Vinh 67


C 2 tnh hung xy ra khi ng xu hng b ph v

1. Hnh thnh xu hng mi ngc vi xu hng c, gi l o chiu

Trn Tun Vinh 68


C 2 tnh hung xy ra khi ng xu hng b ph v

2. Ch l s gin on tm thi ca xu hng hin ti, sau s tip tc xu hng ny

Trn Tun Vinh 69


Mc mnh yu ca Trendline

ng xu hng d ph v gi l ng xu hng yu.

ng xu hng kh ph v gi l ng xu hng mnh

Mc mnh yu ca ng xu hng ph thuc vo 3 yu t: di thi gian, s ln

tip im ca gi v nghing ca ng xu hng.

Mt trendline mnh, c: di thi gian ln, hoc s ln tip im nhiu, hoc

nghing t, hoc kt hp nhiu yu t trn.

Mt trendline yu, c: di thi gian nh, hoc s ln tip im t, hoc nghing

nhiu, hoc kt hp nhiu yu t trn.

Trn Tun Vinh 70



Mt trendline yu khi b ph v s khng to ra mt kt qu ln, thng thng ch lm

gin on xu hng hin ti

Trn Tun Vinh 71



Mt trendline mnh khi b ph v s to ra mt kt qu ln, thng thng lm xut hin

mt xu hng mi ngc chiu.

Trn Tun Vinh 72


Thi quen, xu hng v chin lc kinh doanh

1. Khi mt up trendline mnh bi ph v, gi s c xu hng xung. Chin lc kinh doanh: bn khi gi xung di ng xu hng, cht li khi gi gim xung mt on ng bng khong cch ln nht gia gi v ng trendline trong qu kh, ct l khi gi t ngt tng li qua ng trendline.

Trn Tun Vinh 73



2. Khi mt down trendline mnh bi ph v, gi s c xu hng ln. Chin lc kinh doanh: mua khi gi tng trn ng xu hng, cht li khi gi tng ln mt on ng bng khong cch ln nht gia gi v ng trendline trong qu kh, ct l khi gi t ngt xung li qua ng trendline.

Trn Tun Vinh 74


6 Nhn nh ca Dow

5. C hai ch s trung bnh cng nghip v ng st phi khng nh xu hng th

xu hng mi xc thc. Vit Nam, chng ta c th p dng cho VN-Index v

HASTC-Index.

6. Khi lng giao dch l mt bng chng h tr cho xu hng gi.

PRICE VOLUME MARKET

UP UP STRONG

UP DOWN WARNING SIGN

DOWN UP WEAK

DOWN DOWN WARNING SIGN

Trn Tun Vinh 75

Nhc im ca l thuyt Dow

Khng ng dng c trong th trng giao dch khng xu hng (Sideway).

Lun phn ng chm hn din bin gi ca th trng

Bt u gi gim

Bt u gi tng

Trn Tun Vinh 76

Phn 4: Cc cng c PTKT truyn thng

1. Khng c h tr (Resistance & Support)

2. Cc m hnh gi (Price Patterns)

3. Cc dng thc c bit ca Candlestick (Candlestick Patterns)

Trn Tun Vinh 77

Khng c v h tr (Resistance Support)

Khng c (Resistance): l vng gi m

ni lng cung tng mnh vt qua lng cu

hin ti, lm gi ang tng t ngt o chiu,

thng thng l mc nh trc trong qu kh

H tr (Support): l vng gi m ni

lng cu tng mnh vt qua lng cung hin

ti, lm gi ang gim t ngt o chiu, thng

thng l mc y trc trong qu kh

Trn Tun Vinh 78


Thi quen, xu hng v chin

lc kinh doanh

1. Khi gi tng mnh v ph v

ngng khng c mnh (gm nhiu

nh) s tip tc tng. Chin lc kinh

doanh: mua khi gi vt qua mc khng

c, cht li ti mc khng c tip theo,

dng l khi gi o chiu xung di

mc khng c

Trn Tun Vinh 79


Thi quen, xu hng v

chin lc kinh doanh

2. Khi gi gim mnh v ph

v ngng h tr mnh (gm

nhiu y) s tip tc gim. Chin

lc kinh doanh: bn khi gi vt

qua mc h tr, cht li ti mc

h tr tip theo, dng l khi gi

o chiu ln trn mc h tr

Trn Tun Vinh 80



3. Khi gi ph v ngng khng c mnh hay c thi quen quay li mc gi trn, lc ny mc khng c s tr thnh mc h tr mnh. Chin lc kinh doanh: mua khi gi quay li mc khng c, cht li ti mc khng c tip theo, dng l khi gi o chiu xung di mc khng c.

Trn Tun Vinh 81



4. Khi gi ph v ngng h tr mnh hay c thi quen quay li mc gi trn, lc ny mc h tr s tr thnh mc khng c mnh. Chin lc kinh doanh: bn khi gi quay li mc h tr, cht li ti mc h tr tip theo, dng l khi gi o chiu ln trn mc h tr.

Trn Tun Vinh 82



5. Khi gi t ngt tng mnh gp phi mc khng c bnh thng m khng vt qua c th gi s rt li mnh. Chin lc kinh doanh: bn khi gi gim di mc khng c, cht li ti mc h tr pha di, ct l khi gi quay li vt ln ngng khng c

Trn Tun Vinh 83



6. Khi gi t ngt gim mnh gp phi mc h tr bnh thng m khng vt qua c th gi s tng li mnh. Chin lc kinh doanh: mua khi gi tng ln mc h tr, cht li ti mc khng c pha trn, ct l khi gi quay li xung di ngng h tr.

Trn Tun Vinh 84

Tnh hung vng

Trn Tun Vinh 85

Lch s

Leonardo Fibonacci tn tht l Leonardo Pisano, l mt nh ton hc sng vo khong th k 12 -13 ti Pisa (Italy).

Nm 1202 ng xut bn tc phm Liber Abaci (Mt cun sch v tnh ton). Cun sch :

Gii thiu v c v cho vic s dng h k s Hindu- Rp chu u thay cho h s La M

Gii thiu v h thng ha dy s Fibonacci (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,) da trn nhng quan st v Kim t thp Gizeh Ai Cp v k tha dy s c pht hin bi cc nh ton hc n t TK 6

Trn Tun Vinh 86


S dng Phng php Fibonacci xc nh R-S

Dy s Fibonacci c nh ton hc Leonardo Fibonancci to ra vo nhng nm

1200s, bng cch thc: bt u dy s l hai s 0, 1; cc s tip theo c tnh bng tng hai

s lin trc:

0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233,377.

T l vng: nu chng ta ly bt k mt s trong dy s FB chia cho s lin trc n

th kt qu xoay quanh t l 1.618. Ngc li, nu ly bt k mt s ca dy FB chia cho s

lin sau n th kt qu xoay quanh t l 0.618

Trn Tun Vinh 87

Dy FB S ln chia s

nh lin trc

S nh chia s

ln hn 1 bc

S nh chia s

ln hn 2 bc

S nh chia s

ln hn 3 bc

0

1

1 1.000 100.0% 0.0%

2 2.000 50.0% 50.0% 0.0%

3 1.500 66.7% 33.3% 33.3%

5 1.667 60.0% 40.0% 20.0%

8 1.600 62.5% 37.5% 25.0%

13 1.625 61.5% 38.5% 23.1%

21 1.615 61.9% 38.1% 23.8%

34 1.619 61.8% 38.2% 23.5%

55 1.618 61.8% 38.2% 23.6%

89 1.618 61.8% 38.2% 23.6%

144 1.618 61.8% 38.2% 23.6%

233 1.618 61.8% 38.2% 23.6%

377 1.618 61.8% 38.2% 23.6%

610 1.618 61.8% 38.2% 23.6%

987 1.618 61.8% 38.2% 23.6%

1597 1.618 61.8% 38.2% 23.6%

Trn Tun Vinh 88

T l vng trong t nhin

Trn Tun Vinh 89

T l vng vi con ngi v thi trang

Trn Tun Vinh 90

T l vng trong thit k cng nghip

Trn Tun Vinh 91

T l vng trong y khoa nha khoa

Trn Tun Vinh 92

T l vng trong kin trc

Trn Tun Vinh 93

Fibonacci trong PTKT

S dng dy s Fibonacci l mt trong nhng phng php xc nh cc im h tr

v khng c.

Dy Fibonacci thng c ng dng trong PTKT di nhiu dng:

S hi li (Fibonacci Retracements)

Dng cung (Fibonacci Arcs),

Dng qut (Fibonacci Fans)

Vng thi gian ( Time Zones)

Trn Tun Vinh 94

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci Retracements c to thnh bng cch v ng xu hng ni 2 im cc

tr, t mt y n mt nh hoc ngc li.

Cc ng ngang s c thit lp cc mc tng ng vi t l Fibonacci: 0%

(nh hoc y), 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 76.4% v 100% (nh hoc y), hoc m

rng mc cc mc 261.8% v 423.6%.

Sau mi t bin ng gi (tng hay gim), gi thng c xu hng hi li mt t l

ng k so vi s dch chuyn ban u. Khi gi bin ng hay hi li mc khng c v h

tr thng xut hin gn cc mc Fibonacci Retracement.

Trn Tun Vinh 95

Fibonacci Retracements

Trong k thut s dng Fibonacci Retracements vic xc nh cc im v y ban

u ng vai tr quan trng.

Cc mc Retracements cng c mc ngha khc nhau. H tr v khng c

thng xut hin hn gn cc im 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%.

Trn Tun Vinh 96

2003 A S O N D 2004 A M J J A S O N D 2005 A M J J A S O N D 2006 A M J J A S O N D 2007 A M J J A S O N D 2008 A M J A S O N D 2009 A M J

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

100.0%

VNINDEX (418.750, 427.630, 418.440, 426.430, +14.7900)

Trn Tun Vinh 97

July August September October Nov ember December 2009 February March April May June

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

440

450

460

470

480

490

500

510

520

530

540

550

560

570

580

590

600

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

100.0%

VNINDEX (418.750, 427.630, 418.440, 426.430, +14.7900)

Trn Tun Vinh 98

Fibonacci Arcs

Fibonacci Arcs c thit lp bng cch trc tin v mt ng xu hng t 2

im cc tr, t im y n nh i din hoc ngc li.

Sau 3 ng hnh cung s c xy dng vi tm l mt trong hai im cc tr

v ct ng xu hng ti cc t l Fibonacci 38.2%, 50% v 61.8%.

Fibonacci Arcs thng c xem l cc mc h tr v khng c tim nng.

Trn Tun Vinh 99

Fibonacci Arcs

Trn Tun Vinh 100

Fibonacci Fans

Fibonacci Fans c thit lp t mt ng xu hng c v t nh n y i

din v ngc li. Sau , mt trc dc v hnh c v qua im cc tr th 2

(nh hoc y).

3 ng xu hng s c v t im cc tr th nht ct trc dc ti cc mc

38.2%, 50%, 61.8%. (Vi 2 im nh v y tng ng 0% v 100%).

Ty tng trng hp cc ng ny c th xem l cc ng h tr v khng c

trong PTKT.

Trn Tun Vinh 101

Fibonacci Fans

Trn Tun Vinh 102

Fibonacci Time Zones

Fibonacci Time Zones c thit lp bi vic chia th bng cc trc thng

ng vi khong cch tun theo dy Fibonacci (1,1,2,3,5,8,).

Cc thay i gi mnh thng nm gn cc trc dc ny.

Trn Tun Vinh 103

Fibonacci Time Zones

Trn Tun Vinh 104

L thuyt sng Elliott

Lch s hnh thnh

Nguyn l c bn ca EWP

ng dng

Trn Tun Vinh 105

Lch s hnh thnh

Nm 1938, cng trnh nghin cu mang tn Nguyn tc sng (The Wave Principle) hay

Nguyn tc sng Elliott (Elliott Wave Principle - EWP) c cng b ln u tin, gii thiu

v nghin cu ca Ralph Nelson Elliott.

Thuyt ny chu nhiu nh hng t thuyt Dow (Dow theory) v bn thn R. N. Elliott

cho rng thuyt ca ng l mt b sung cn thit cho thuyt Dow.

Nm 1946, Elliott hon tt vic nghin cu nguyn tc sng v cng b tc phm, Quy

lut t nhin - b n ca V tr(Natures Law Secret of the Universe).

Trn Tun Vinh 106

Lch s hnh thnh

Elliott nhn thy th trng bin ng theo nhng chu k phn nh nhiu yu t khc

nhau. Nhng t bin ng tng hay gim ca th trng lun lun bc l qua mt s m

hnh c bn, c th l di dng sng (waves). Cc sng ny c th lp i lp li v hnh th,

nhng khng nht thit lp li v thi gian v ln.

Nm 1978, A.J.Frost v Robert Prechter b sung, h thng ha v gii thch r hn

v l thuyt ny trong cun sch Nguyn tc sng Elliot (Elliott Wave Principle - EWP)

Trn Tun Vinh 107

Nguyn l c bn ca EWP C 3 kha cnh c bn ca l thuyt sng:

Cc dng mu (Pattern): L cc dng thc bc sng c lp i lp li. y c coi l yu t quan trng nht trong l thuyt sng.

Phn tch t l (Ratio Analysis): Nhm xc nh cc im hi li v cc mc gi mc tiu bng vic xc nh t l gia cc sng khc nhau.

Thi gian (Time) : L yu t c th gip khng nh thm v dng mu v t l ca cc bc sng. y l c xem l yu t t quan trng nht trong cc yu t.

Trn Tun Vinh 108

Pattern

Dng thc c bn.

Chu k hon tt

Dng thc bao qut

Sng iu chnh

Trn Tun Vinh 109

Dng thc c bn The Basic Pattern (H1)

Trn Tun Vinh 110

Dng thc c bn

C hai dng thc pht trin ca sng : Vn ng (Motive) v iu chnh (Corrective).

Vn ng c cu thnh bi 5 bc sng, iu chnh c cu thnh bi 3 bc sng.

Cc bc sng 1 3 5 th hin xu hng vn ng chnh ang chi phi mnh m th

trng.

Cc bc sng 2 4 th hin s iu chnh hi li mt phn hng vn ng ca sng

trc .

Trn Tun Vinh 111

Chu k hon tt (Complete Cycle) - H1

Trn Tun Vinh 112

Chu k hon tt

EWP cho rng th trng i theo mt nhp iu ca 5 bc sng tng v sau l 3 bc

sng gim. Khi th trng thc hin xong mt chu k hon tt ( Complete Cycle).

Mt chu k hon tt bao gm 8 bc sng: 5 bc sng tng v 3 bc sng gim.

Trn Tun Vinh 113

Chu k hon tt

trong chu k tng (Bullish Numberred Phase) cc bc sng c nh s. Cc sng 1 3

5 l cc sng tng (cn gi l cc bc sng y Implulse waves). Cc bc sng 2-4 l

bc sng gim, ngc li vi xu hng tng (Cn gi l bc sng iu chnh - Corrective

waves).

Sau khi 5 bc sng trong giai on nh s (Numberred Phase - Bullish) kt thc, giai on

iu chnh gim (Bearish Letterred Phase) s bt u vi 3 bc sng iu chnh a, b,c (

trong a v c l bc sng gim, b l bc sng tng).

Trn Tun Vinh 114

Dng thc bao qut

M hnh 8 bc sng trn l khun mu ca thuyt Elliott, tuy nhin ln (

rng) ca xu hng hay chu k li rt a dng.

Elliott phn ln ca xu hng thnh 9 cp t chu k v i (Grand

Supercycle) ko di ln n hng trm nm n chu k nh nht (Subminuette) ch bao

qut vi gi giao dch. Do vy xem xt n ln ca xu hng cng ng vai tr rt

quan trng.

im cn ghi nh y l 8 bc sng c bn trong chu k vn c duy tr bt k

ln ca xu hng m chng ta ang xem xt.

Trn Tun Vinh 115

Dng thc bao qut

Mt sng c th c chia thnh cc bc sng mc nh hn, cc bc sng nh ny c

th c chia thnh cc bc sng nh hn na. M hnh 8 bc sng ca mt chu k c th

ng vai tr mt bc sng ca mt chu k ln hn.

V d: Hai bc sng 1 v 2 c th c chia thnh 8 bc sng nh hn v sau

c th c chia thnh 34 bc sng nh hn. Tuy nhin hai bc sng ny ch l 2 bc

sng u tin trong chu k tng bao gm 5 bc sng ln hn..

Trn Tun Vinh 116

Dng thc bao qut

Nguyn tc chia bc sng:

Mi bc sng nh s 1 n 5 ( Numberred Phase) c cu thnh t 5 hoc 3

bc sng nh hn.

Qu trnh tch nh cc bc sng tun theo quy lut v xu hng. Cc bc sng

(1), (3), (5) l sng tng, cng chiu vi xu hng chnh tng ( Circle Bull Market) nn bao

gm 5 bc sng nh hn. Trong khi , sng (2) v (4) i ngc chiu vi xu hng chnh

nn ch cu thnh t 3 bc sng nh hn.

Tng t cho cc sng iu chnh (a), (b), (c). Cc bc sng (a) v (c) l sng

gim, cng chiu vi xu hng chnh gim (Cycle Bear Market) nn bao gm 5 bc sng

nh hn. Bc sng (b) l bc sng tng ngc vi xu hng chnh ca th trng nn ch

cu thnh t 3 bc sng nh hn.

Trn Tun Vinh 117

Dng thc bao qut ( H2)

Frost and Prechter

Trn Tun Vinh 118

Phn tch t l - Ratio Analysis

Trong cc bc sng vn ng (Motive wave)

Bc sng 2 khng bao gi hi li qu 100% bc sng 1.

Bc sng 4 khng bao gi hi li qu 100% bc sng 3.

Bc sng 3 thng ln nht v khng bao gi l nh nht trong cc bc sng

1-3-5.

Mt trong 3 bc sng y (impulse) thng c xu hng m rng. Hai bc

cn li c xu hng bng nhau v thi gian v ln.Nu bc sng 5 m rng, bc 1 v

3 s bng nhau. Nu bc 3 m rng, bc 1 v 5 s c xu hng bng.

Trn Tun Vinh 119

Ratio Analysis

Bc sng th 2 ( Wave 2):

Wave 2 = 38.2% * Wave1

= 50% * Wave 1

= 61.8%* Wave 1

Bc sng th 3 (Wave 3): im mc tiu ca bc sng 3 l :

Wave 3 = 1.618 wave 1

Wave 3 = 2 1.618 wave 1 ( Trng hp m rng)

Bc sng th 4 ( Wave 4):

Wave 4 = 38.2% * Wave 3

= 50% * Wave 3

= 61.8%* Wave 3

Trn Tun Vinh 120

Ratio Analysis Bc sng th 5 (Wave 5): im mc tiu ca bc sng 5 l :

Maximum targer : Wave 5 = 2 1.618 wave 1 + nh bc sng 1

Minimum targer : Wave 5 = 2 1.618 wave 1 + y bc sng 1

Nu bc sng 1 v 3 bng nhau, bc sng 5 c k vng l s m rng, mc gi mc

tiu c th c tnh bng cch : ly khong cch t y bc sng 1 n nh bc sng 3

nhn vi 1.618 v cng vo y bc sng 4.

Trn Tun Vinh 121

Ratio Analysis

n = 0.382*x y = 1.618*x

Minimum z = 2*1.618*x Maximum z = 2*1.618*x + x

Z m rng = 1.618*(x + y n) + m

Trn Tun Vinh 122

Ratio Analysis

Trn Tun Vinh 123

Ratio Analysis (Corrective Waves)

Trn Tun Vinh 124

Ratio Analysis (Motive Waves) - Mt vi dng

Trn Tun Vinh 125

Ratio Analysis ( Corrective Waves)

Trong bc sng iu chnh (Corrective Wave):

Trong dng Zig zags 5-3-5 bc sng c c xu hng bng a.

Trong dng Flat 3-3-5, nu sng b vt qua nh ca sng a, sng c s bng 1.618 sng a

Trn Tun Vinh 126

Ratio Analysis Zig - Zags

Trn Tun Vinh 127

Ratio Analysis Flat

Trn Tun Vinh 128

Ratio Analysis Flat

Trn Tun Vinh 129

Cc m hnh trong PTKT

Triangles (tam gic)

Rectangles (hnh ch nht)

Flags and pennants (l c)

Head and shoulders (u_vai)

Double and triple tops/bottoms

Wedges (Cy nm)

Rounding tops/bottoms (y hoc nh vng cung)

The Cup with Handle

The Saucer

Trn Tun Vinh 130

Triangeles (Tam gic)

Tam gic nh bng (Flat top triangle)

Trn Tun Vinh 131

Trn Tun Vinh 132

Trn Tun Vinh 133


Tam gic y bng (Flat bottom triangle)

Trn Tun Vinh 134

Trn Tun Vinh 135


Tam gic cn (Equilateral triangle)

Trn Tun Vinh 136

Trn Tun Vinh 137

Retangles

Trn Tun Vinh 138

Trn Tun Vinh 139

Flags and Pennants

Bullish Flag

Trn Tun Vinh 140

Flags and Pennants

Bearish Flag

Trn Tun Vinh 141

Flags and Pennants

Pennant

Trn Tun Vinh 142

Trn Tun Vinh 143

Head and shoulders

Trn Tun Vinh 144

2008 February April May June July August September Nov ember 2009 February March April May June July

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

S

H

Neckline

S

Tran Tuan Vinh (2009)VNINDEX (424.100, 430.780, 424.100, 427.050, +8.50000)

Trn Tun Vinh 145

Trn Tun Vinh 146

Oct Nov Dec 2007 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1

2

Right Shoulder

Right Shoulder

Head

VNINDEX (528.160, 549.620, 513.490, 547.990, +19.5000)

Trn Tun Vinh 147

Trn Tun Vinh 148

Trn Tun Vinh 149

DOUBLE-TRIPLE TOPS/BOTTOMS

Double Top (2

nh) Double Bottom (2

nh)

Trn Tun Vinh 150

Trn Tun Vinh 151

Trn Tun Vinh 152

Trn Tun Vinh 153

DOUBLE-TRIPLE TOPS/BOTTOMS

Triple Top (2 nh) Triple Bottom (2 nh)

Trn Tun Vinh 154

Wedge (Cy nm)

Trn Tun Vinh 155

16 23 30 7

April

13 20 27 4

May

11 18 25 1

June

8 15 22 29 6

July

13 20 27 3 10

August

17 24 31 7

September

14 21

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

440

450

460

470

480

490

500

510

520

530

540

550

560

570

OBreak out

Wedge

VNINDEX (539.900, 542.000, 536.110, 536.110, -1.70001)

Trn Tun Vinh 156

Rounding tops/bottoms

Rounding

Tops

Rounding

Bottoms

Trn Tun Vinh 157

The Cup with Handle (Ci tch)

Trn Tun Vinh 158

Trn Tun Vinh 159

The Saucer (Ci nong)

Trn Tun Vinh 160

2007 Nov Dec 2008 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

260

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

100.0%

Saucer

Break Out

SNG (62.9000, 63.0000, 59.5000, 61.1000, -0.90000)

Trn Tun Vinh 161

Cc dng thc c bit ca Candlestick

1. Dng thc o chiu (Reversal Patterns)

1.1 Cy ba v ngi treo c (Hammers and Hanging men)

1.2 m my m bao ph (Dark Cloud Cover)

1.3 Piercing Line

1.4 Dng thc lp y (Engulfing Patterns)

1.5 Ngi sao (Stars)

2. Dng thc tip tc xu hng (Continution Patterns)

2.1 Khong trng tng v khong trng gim (Upside and Downside Gaps)

2.2 Phng thc ba tng v phng thc ba gim (Rising-three and Falling-three

Methods)

Trn Tun Vinh 162


Cy ba (Hammer)

- c hnh thnh sau 1 lot ngy gim gi lin tc (xu

hng gim chim u th).

- Cy ba hnh thnh l mt ngy m khi m ca gi gim

nhng cui ngy gi tng li v ng ca gn mc cn trn.

Bng di di t nht gp hai ln thn.

Ngi treo c (Hanging men)

- Hnh thnh sau mt giai on tng gi

- C mt cy nn vi thn nh nm pha trn (gi m cao

hn ng), bng di di t nht gp hai ln thn

Hammer

Hanging

men

Trn Tun Vinh 163

18 25 1

February

8 22 1

March

8 15 22 29

April

5 12 19

30.5

31.0

31.5

32.0

32.5

33.0

33.5

34.0

34.5

35.0

35.5

36.0

36.5

37.0

37.5

38.0

38.5

39.0

39.5

40.0

40.5

41.0

0.0%

23.6%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

Hammer

BHS (33.9000, 34.7000, 33.5000, 34.7000, +1.60000)

Trn Tun Vinh 164


m my en bo ph (Dark Cloud Cover)

- Hnh thnh sau mt thi k gi tng

- Xut hin mt cy nn vi gi m ca cao hn gi m ca ca ngy lin trc, nhng gi ng li thp hn khong gia ca cy nn lin trc. V bng ca cy nn ny rt nh.

- Cy nn lin trc phi l cy nn tng

Dark Cloud Cover

Dark

Cloud

Trn Tun Vinh 165


Piercing Line

- Xut hin sau mt giai on gim gi

- Xut hin cy nn c gi m ca thp hn

gi ng ca v gi ng ca cao hn mc gia

ca cy nn lin trc.

- Cy nn lin trc phi l cy nn gim

im gia

ng ca trn im gia

Piercing

Line

Vinh (09)

Trn Tun Vinh 166


Dng thc lp y tng (Bullish

Engulfing Patterns)

- Xut hin sau mt giai on gim

- Mt cy nn c gi m ca thp hn

mc cn di v gi ng ca cao hn mc

cn trn ca cy nn lin trc.

- Cy nn lin trc phi l cy nn

gim.

- Bng ca hai cy nn ny rt t

Bullish Engulfing

Patterns Vinh (09)

Trn Tun Vinh 167


Dng thc lp y gim (Bearish

Engulfing Patterns)

- Xut hin sau mt giai on tng

- Mt cy nn c gi m ca cao hn

mc cn trn v gi ng ca thp hn mc

cn di ca cy nn lin trc.

- Cy nn lin trc phi l cy nn tng.

- Bng ca hai cy nn ny rt t

Bearish Engulfing

Patterns Vinh(09)

Trn Tun Vinh 168


Dng thc khong trng tng (Upside Gap)

- Xut hin trong giai on tng

- Dng thc ny khng nh thm xu hng tng

- Cy nn u tin l cy nn tng, to thnh mt khong trng vi cy nn lin trc n, cy nn th hai l cy nn gim nhng mc cn di vn nm trn gi ng ca ca cy nn trc cy nn th nht.

- Cy nn trc cy nn th nht phi l cy nn tng

Gap

Upside

Gap Vinh(09)

Trn Tun Vinh 169


Dng thc khong trng gim (Downside Gap)

- Xut hin trong giai on gim

- Dng thc ny khng nh thm xu hng gim

- Cy nn u tin l cy nn gim, to thnh mt khong trng vi cy nn lin trc n, cy nn th hai l cy nn tng nhng mc cn trn vn nm di gi ng ca ca cy nn trc cy nn th nht.

- Cy nn trc cy nn th nht phi l cy nn gim

Gap

Downside Gap Vinh(09)

Trn Tun Vinh 170


Phng thc ba tng (Rising Three Methods)

- Xut hin trong giai on tng

- Khng nh thm xu hng tng

- Bt u vi mt cy nn tng ln, sau xut hin khong 3 hay 4 cy nn gim nh nhng khong dao ng ca cc cy nn ny u nm trong lng cy nn trng. Sau , xut hin mt cy nn trng ln vi gi m ca v ng ca cao hn cy nn trng trc.

Rising Three Methods

Trn Tun Vinh 171


Phng thc ba gim (Falling Three Methods)

- Xut hin trong giai on gim

- Khng nh thm xu hng gim

- Bt u vi mt cy nn gim ln, sau xut hin khong 3 hay 4 cy nn tng nh nhng khong dao ng ca cc cy nn ny u nm trong lng cy nn gim. Sau , xut hin mt cy nn gim ln vi gi m ca v ng ca thp hn cy nn gim trc.

Falling Three Methods

V Vn Ho 172

V Vn Ho 173

Phn tch k thut cc

ng ch bo Ths. V Vn Ho (Bin son)

V Vn Ho 174

Du hiu th trng v gi c trong PTKT

Khi chuyn sang phn cc du hiu d bo th trng, chng ta khng xem xt gi c mt cch trc tip m ch trng n vic s dng cc m hnh ton hc nhng o hm ca gi.

Cc du hiu th trng ch l phng tin xc nh xem iu g s hin th r rng trn th gi. S dng nh l cng c h tr gia tng gi tr ca vic phn tch th gi c bn.

Cn nhn thc rng mt s du hiu th trng thng a ra cc tn hiu mun, tc l tn hiu ca du hiu th trng thng n sau tn hiu gi trong khi 1 mt s du hiu th trng lai a ra tn hiu mang tnh cht dn ng a ra trc c cc tn hiu gi.

V Vn Ho 175

Cc loi du hiu th trng

Du hiu d bo xu hng th trng (Trailing Indicators)

c s dng xc nh xu hng th trng mt cch khch

quan. Nhm du hiu ny c xy dng nhm sp xp cc d

liu gi c sao cho hnh thnh mt xu hng th trng di dng

th. Nhm du hiu ny c th lit vo nhm du hiu nh

hng (trailing indicators). Quan trng nht trong nhm du hiu

theo xu hng l cc ng trung bnh ng. Mc ch s dng

ca nhm ny l nhm pht hin ra s khi u v kt thc ca

cc xu hng th trng

V Vn Ho 176

Nhm du hiu th trng c s dng o lng tc bin ng ca gi c. Nhm du hiu ny c gi l cng c o dao ng ca gi (momentum oscillators).

nh ngha v dao ng gi y c hiu l l cc dao ng c th o lng c, iu ny cho php chng ta pht hin ra nhng thay i v tc v xu hng bin ng ca gi. Cc du hiu ny c coi l cc du hiu dn ng hoc du hiu ngu nhin.

Cc du hiu ny c thit k nhm pht hin nhng dao ng ca gi trong phm vi mt khong dao ng gi hay trong phm vi ca mt xu hng. Mc ch l xc nh thi im giao dch khi gi thay i do vic nh gi qu cao hay qu thp.


V Vn Ho 177

Du hiu d bo xu hng th trng ch hu dng khi

dng n phn tch cc xu hng thay i ca gi chng khng

c ch i vi cc khong dao ng ca gi. dao ng ca gi

cng ch c th c s dng phn tch cc giao dch thay i

trong phm vi gii hn v dng cnh bo s kt thc xu hng

v phn tch cc khong dao ng gi khi cc du hiu d bo

xu hng th trng khng c th pht hin cc thay i

trong ngn hn.

Mt th o giao ng gi nhn chung s dao ng v

pha ny hay pha khc mt ng trung tm hay cn gi l

ng zero.


V Vn Ho 178

Phn loi khc

Average True Range Bollinger Bands Commodity Channel Index Moving Average (Variable) ODDS Probability Cones Relative Volatility Index Standard Deviation Standard Error Bands Volatility, Chalkin's

Accumulation Swing Index Chande Momentum Oscillator Commodity Channel Index Dynamic Momentum Index Intraday Momentum Index Linear Regression Slope MACD Mass Index Momentum Indicator Price Oscillator Price Rate-Of-Change Random Walk Index Range Indicator Relative Momentum Index Relative Strength Index Stochastic Momentum Index Stochastic Oscillator Swing Index Trix Ultimate Oscillator Williams' %R Williams' Accumulation-Distribution

1. Ch bo v giao ng

(Volatility Indicators)

2. Ch bo v xung lng

(Momentum Indicators)

V Vn Ho 179

Cycle Lines

Detrended Price Oscillator

Fibonacci

Fourier Transform

MESA Sine Wave Indicator

Accumulation-Distribution Chaikin Money Flow Chaikin A/D Oscillator Demand Index Ease of Movement Herrick Payoff Index Klingler Oscillator Money Flow Index Moving Average (Volume Adjusted) Negative Volume Index On Balance Volume Open Interest Positive Volume Index Price Volume Trend Trade Volume Index Volume Volume Oscillator Volume Rate-Of-Change

3. Ch bo theo chu k

(Cycle Indicators)

4. Ch bo cng th

trng (Market Strength

Indicators)

V Vn Ho 180

Andrew's Pitchfork Envelope Fibonacci Arcs, Fans, Retracements Gann Lines, Fans, Grids Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Projection Bands Projection Oscillator Quadrant Lines Speed Resistance Lines Tirone Levels Trendlines

Aroon Commodity Selection Index DEMA Directional Movement Forecast Oscillator Linear Regression Indicator Linear Regression Slope Linear Regression Trendline MACD Moving Averages (all methods) Parabolic SAR Performance Polarized Fractal Efficiency Price Oscillator Qstick Indicator r-squared Raff Regression Channel Standard Deviation Channel Standard Error Standard Error Bands Standard Error Channel TEMA Time Series Forecast Vertical Horizontal Filter

5. Ch bo mc h tr v

khng c (Support and

Resistance Indicators)

6. Ch bo v xu hng

(Trend Indicators)

V Vn Ho 181

A. Nhm du hiu nh hng

1. ng trung bnh ng Moving average

2. Ch s bo hiu gi o chiu Parabolic Sar

3. Vn ng c nh hng : -DI/+DI

4. Bollinger Band

5. MACD

6. Biu MACD

V Vn Ho 182

182

1. ng trung bnh ng- MA (Moving

Average)

a. ng trung bnh ng

gin n

MA (moving average)

SMA = Tong gia ong

ca cua n ngay /n ngay

Day

Daily

Close 10-day SMA

1 67.50

2 66.50

3 66.44

4 66.44

5 66.25

6 65.88

7 66.63

8 66.56

9 65.63

V Vn Ho 183

183

SMA (10)

10 66.06 66.39

11 63.94 66.03

12 64.13 65.8

13 64.5 65.6

14 62.81 65.24

15 61.88 64.8

16 62.5 64.46

17 61.44 63.95

18 60.13 63.3

19 61.31 62.87

20 61.38 62.4

V Vn Ho 184

MA sang bng hm m - Exponential

MA hm s m t t trng ln hn cho cc mc gi

gn hin ti hn. V th n cng chnh l mt ng MA c

tnh t trng. Vic iu chnh c thc hin bng cch thay

i gi tr phn trm i vi mc gi ca ngy sau cng, t

trng m gi tr cu ngy trc c cng vo phn trm

MA. V d MA 21 ngy

MA= today(close) x 0.09 + mov (yesterday) x 0.9

Cng thc tnh exponential percentage = 2/(times period +1)

Mun tnh s ngy th

Times Period = 2/percentage +1

V Vn Ho 185

MA chui thi gian TIME SERIES MA

MA chui thi gian cng ging nh mt d bo

chui thi gian. i khi n nghin cu ng hi quy

tuyn tnh di ng. Xu hng c da trn vic phn

tch ng hi quy tuyn tnh. C 2 u im hn so vi

MA

-TSMA biu l nhiu s chm tr khi iu chnh nhng s

thay i gi. Do ch s l s iu chnh chnh n dn n

d liu hn l mc trung bnh ca chng, d bo chui thi

gian th d p ng hn n nhng thay i gi.

-C th d bo chui thi gian d bo mc gi ca thi

k tip theo.

V Vn Ho 186

MA c trng s : Weighted MA

MA ny c thit k nhm t trng s ca ngy gn nht

quan trng hn nhng d liu qu kh. Vic tnh ton ny l mc gi

ng ca ca ngy th 10 (MA 10) c nhn vi 10, mc gi ng

ca ngy th 9 nhn vi 9

Day Price Weighted P * W

1 25 1 25

2 26 2 52

3 28 3 84

4 25 4 100

5 29 5 145

total 133 15 27.067

V Vn Ho 187

MA Triangular

MA ny c thit k ging MA c trng s v MA san

bng s m nhng c thit k khc trng s ca d liu. MA

t vai tr quan trng ca d liu nm gia ca chui d liu.

Cch tnh l ly di d liu chia cho 2 nh l s trung bnh (s

th 1) sau cng 1 nh l s th 2..

V d: tnh MA 9 ngy

1.9:2 = 4.5

2.Lm trn 4.5 thnh 5

3.Triangular = Mov (mov(c,5,s),5,s)

V d tnh MA 12 ngy

1.12/2 = 6

2.6 +1 = 7

3.Triangular = mov (mov (c,6,s),7,s)

V Vn Ho 188

Khong thi gian dng tnh MA

Thng thng ngi ta hay tnh MA 39 tun, nhng d

l bao nhiu i na th MA phi m bo l ghi chp y

cc du vt theo thi gian ca cc chu k th trng. C

ngha rng di ca mt MA phi ph hp vi chu k th

trng m nh u t ang i theo.

di l tng ca mt MA = ( di chu k/2) +1

Mun chuyn MA hng ngy sang MA hng tun ly s

ngy chia cho 5. V d MA 200 ngy s l tng ng MA

40 tun.

V Vn Ho 189

Cc mc gi dng tnh MA

Mc gi ng ca c xem l mc gi quan trng nht

trong giao dch hng ngy v mc gi c s dng nhiu

nht trong vic xy dng nn ng MA.

MA c th tnh ton t bt k loi d liu no: gi m

ca, ng ca, cao nht v thp nht, khi lng giao dch

hay bt k loi ch s no khc.

Cc ch s c bit thch hp cho vic s dng MA l

MACD, Price ROC, Momentum v Stochatic Oscillator.

V Vn Ho 190

Xu hng MA

Rt ngn hn 5 13 ngy

Ngn hn 14 25 ngy

Trung hn nh 26 49 ngy

Trung hn 50 100 ngy

Di hn 100 200 ngy

V Vn Ho 191

Ca s thi gian Li th Bt li

Khung thi gian

ngn hn

Phn ng nhy hn

vi bin ng gi

Biu th bin ng

gi theo hnh dao

ng rng ca

nhiu hn, kh

giao dch hiu qu

Khung thi gian

di hn

Biu th bin ng

gi chnh xc hn,

giao dch hiu qu

hn

Du hiu chm hn

V Vn Ho 192

Cc tin ch ca MA

Xc nh khng nh cc xu hng

Xc nh khng nh vng khng c hay h tr

Cc h thng giao dch

Xc nh khng nh cc xu hng:

Chng ta c 3 cch xc nh cc xu vi MA: hng,

v tr v s giao nhau

K thut u tin l s dng hng ca nhng ng

MA xc nh xu hng chung.

V Vn Ho 193

MA Khng nh xu hng

- MA i ln chng ta ang xu hng tng gi

- MA i xung chng ta ang xu hng gim gi

- MA nm ngang chng ta khng xu hng no

c m nm khong dao ng gi.

- Gi nm trn MA Xu hng tng

- Gi nm di MA Xu hung gim

V Vn Ho 194 194

MA Quy tc giao dch

oMua ti im m ng gi ct ng trung bnh ng

t pha di ln

o Bn ti im m ng gi ct ng trung bnh ng

t trn xung.

o Mua ti im ng gi ct ng MA theo hng t

di ln, tt ton giao dch mua khi ng gi ct MA

t trn xung di.

o Bn ti im ng gi ct MA theo hng t trn

xung, tt ton giao dch bn khi ng gi ct ng

trung bnh ng theo hng t di ln.

V Vn Ho 195 Vo Van Hao - Technical analysis

CHARTS

V Vn Ho 196 Vo Van Hao - Technical analysis

SUPPORT

V Vn Ho 197

V Vn Ho 198

V Vn Ho 199

V Vn Ho 200

S dng 2 ng MA

Tn hiu mua xut hin khi ng MA nhanh (t ngy

hn) ct t di ln trn ng MA chm (nhiu ngy

hn)

Tn hin bn xut hin khi ng MA nhanh ct t trn

xung ng MA chm.

V Vn Ho 201

V D

V Vn Ho 202

3 ng MA

La chn s thi gian:

- S dng khung thi gian 3 chu k lin tip nh 5 ngy l chu k 1 tun, 21 ngy l chu k 1 thng, v 63 ngy l chu k qu cho chu k bo co qu

- S dng cc con s c gi l s iu ha nh chu k chnh l 30 ngy (chu k chnh), 15 ngy (s iu ha th 2), v 5 ngy

- S dng dy s Fibonacci :1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21

V Vn Ho 203

Cc nguyn tc im mua: l khi ng trung bnh ngn nht i qua

pha trn ca MA c di trung bnh v ng MA c di trung bnh i qua pha trn ca ng MA di nht

im bn: khi ng trung bnh ngn nht i qua pha di ng MA c di trung bnh v MA c di trung bnh i qua pha di MA di nht

V Vn Ho 204

2. Parabolic Stop and Reverse hay l

Parabolic Sar, Parabolic)

Parabolic Stop and Reverse (hay cn gi l Parabolic

SAR, Parabolic), c pht trin bi J. Welles Wilder, l

mt cng c phn tch k thut theo sau xu hng ca th

trng. N c s dng rng ri trn th trng chng

khon, vng v c tin t. Parabolic SAR da trn nguyn

tc c bn l: mt xu hng mnh s tip tc tng sc mnh

ca n qua thi gian v theo s i theo mt ng vng

cung parabol. Parabolic SAR biu din di dng mt

ng vng cung parabol nm pha di ng gi trong

xu hng ln v nm pha trn ng gi trong xu hng

xung.

V Vn Ho 205

Hai yu t ca PAR

Mt h thng gi thuyt l chng ta ang giao dch theo

xu hng v do vy ngi ta k vng gi s dch chuyn

theo thi gian. Do vy, cc im t lnh dng b tc

ng bi yu t gia tc trn khong thi gian tri qua.

Yu t gia tc c ngha l khi cc im t lnh dng

giao dch to ra mt m hnh ging nh ng parabon.

V Vn Ho 206

CCH TNH th biu din Parabolic SAR (PSAR) l mt ng

vng cung parabol nm di/trn mt xu hng. N s dng gi t bin nht (cao nht v thp nht) trong mt xu hng (EP) cng vi mt h s gia tc (AF) xc nh nhng im tip theo trn vng cung parabol.

Cng thc tnh: PSAR = PSARn+1 = PSARn + (AF * (EP PSARn))

EP = gi cao nht trong mt xu hng ln ( trng thi Long) hoc gi thp nht trong mt xu hng xung (Trng thi short). c cp nht khi xut hin mt EP mi.

AF = c mc nh l 0,02 (2%), tng thm 0,02 (2%) mi ln EP mi xut hin v t gi tr ln nht ti 0,20 (20%).

V Vn Ho 207

CCH TNH

Ch : Do PSAR c tnh ngc cho mi xu hng mi nn s xy ra 2 trng hp c bit lm thay i gi tr ca PSAR.

Nu PSARn+1 nm trong hoc vt qua bin dao ng gi ca ngy hm nay hay ngy hm qua, PSAR s c tnh bng vi mc gi cao nht/thp nht ca phin giao dch gn vi n nht. V d: trong xu hng i ln, PSARn+1 c tnh v gi tr ca n ln hn gi thp nht ca ngy hm nay hay ngy hm qua th PSARn+1 phi cho bng vi gi thp nht .

Nu PSARn+1 nm trong hoc vt qua bin dao ng gi ca ngy mai th s bo hiu mt xu hng gi mi, dn n s hon i v tr ca PSAR. Khi , gi tr PSAR u tin s c tnh bng vi gi tr EP cui cng ca xu hng trc . EP mi s c iu chnh li t u v AF cng c iu chnh tr v gi tr ban u l 0,02 (2%).

V Vn Ho 208

V Vn Ho 209

p dng

Do Parabolic SAR l mt cng c theo sau xu hng, nh

u t ch nn s dng n khi xu hng c khng nh. Mt

khc, tn hiu nhn c s khng tht s chnh xc trong th

trng dao ng t hoc i ngang.

Trong xu hng th trng i ln, du hiu mua vo khi

vng cung parabol i ln bt u v bn ra khi vng cung parabol

chm vi ng gi. Ngc li, trong xu hng th trng i

xung, du hiu bn ra khi vng cung parabol i xung bt u

v mua vo khi vng cung parabol chm vi ng gi.

Parabolic SAR s tng thm chnh xc khi nh u t s

dng n kt hp vi cc cng c khc nh Moving Average,

Williams %R, Momentum.

V Vn Ho 210

3.Nhm ch bo k AROON

Th trng c ang trong mt xu hng r rng hay khng

v nu c th cng ca xu hng ny nh th no? Nhm tr

li cu hi trn, Tushar Chande pht trin nhm ch s k thut

Aroon c dng trong c th trng chng khon, tin t v mt

s sn phm ti chnh khc. Tushar Chande l ngi ng u

Cng ty qun l qu Tuscarora, ng thi cng l mt nh khoa

hc, nh pht minh v l tc gi mt vi quyn sch phn tch k

thut. T Aroon trong ting Phn c ngha l nh sng bnh

minh. Chande s dng t Aroon cho thy mong mun tm ra s

bt u ca mt xu hng mi. Nhm ch s Aroon gm c

Aroon Indicator v Aroon Oscillator, trong Aroon Oscillator

c tnh t Aroon Indicator.

V Vn Ho 211

AROON INDICATOR Ch s Aroon bao gm hai ng l Aroon Up (mu xanh) v Aroon Down (mu ). Hai ng ny dao ng trong khong t 0 n 100 v hai mc 30, 70 c s dng, tng t ch s RSI.

Khi ng Aroon Up nm di mc 30 v Aroon Down nm trn mc 70, th trng ang i xung mnh m. Ngc li, th trng trong xu hng tng mnh khi ng Aroon Up trn mc 70 v Aroon Down di mc 30. Quan st biu ta s thy mi khi ng Aroon Up t 100, th trng s thit lp mt nh mi cho khong thi gian tnh Aroon. Th trng s to y mi khi Aroon Down t gi tr 100.

V Vn Ho 212

AROON INDICATOR

Vic tnh ton cc ch s Aroon kh n gin. Bin s duy nht trong cng thc tnh ca cng c ny l s ngy giao dch. C th, Aroon (N ngy) c cng thc tnh nh sau:

Aroon Up = (N N1)/N x 100

Aroon Down = (N N2)/N x 100

Trong :

N1: s ngy giao dch tnh t ngy gi t mc cao nht trong khong thi gian N ngy.

N2: s ngy giao dch tnh t ngy gi t mc thp nht trong khong thi gian N ngy.

V d, gi c phiu VNM t nh cao nht 6 ngy trc. Aroon Up 10 ngy ca VNM s l (10 6)/10 x 100 = 40. Tng t, nu gi c phiu VNM ri xung y thp nht cch y 4 ngy, Aroon Down s bng (10 4)/10 x 100 = 60.

V Vn Ho 213

V Vn Ho 214

Lu Khi ly ch s Aroon Up tr i ch s Aroon Down, ta s c ch s Aroon Oscillator xc nh th trng ang c xu hng hoc i ngang. V c bn, nh u t c th lin tng Aroon Oscillator n ng ADX, c tnh ton t DI+ v DI-.

Ba ct mc chnh trong khi s dng Aroon Oscillator l mc 50, 0 v -50. Nu ch s ny i ln v vt qua mc 50, th trng vo xu hng tng mnh. Khi ny, vic Aroon gim v mc 50 l du hiu cnh bo xu hng tng yu dn v kh nng o chiu ca th trng. Tng t, Aroon i xung ct ng -50 khi th trng vo t sng gim mnh. Kh nng o chiu i ln xut hin khi ng ny tng tr li khi mc -50. Thm vo , Aroon Oscillator s dao ng quanh mc 0 nu th trng khng c xu hng r rng hay i ngang.

Vi nhng c tnh v cng thc nh trn, nhm ch s k thut Aroon tuy khng phi l v kh hu hiu trong vic a ra cc tn hiu mua/bn nhng s h tr nh u t xc nh khi no s dng ch s theo sau xu hng (trend following indicators) nh trung bnh ng l tt nht v khi no s dng ch s dao ng nh Stochastic hiu qu nht.

V Vn Ho 215

V Vn Ho 216

V Vn Ho 217

4. Vn ng c xu hng Ngy xu hng tng: +DM l mt phn trong khong bin ng gi hm nay nm bn trn mc cn trn ca ngy hm qua

Ngy xu hng gim: - DM l mt phn trong khong bin ng gi ngy hm nay nm di mc cn di ca ngy hm qua

Ngy bin ng trong knh: DM lun bng zero

V Vn Ho 218

4. Vn ng c xu hng

Ngy bin ng ngoi knh: +DM hoc DM tu thuc vo khong dao ng ra bn ngoi no ln hn, nu bng nhau th DM s bng zero

Khong cch xu hng gi ln: +DM l khong cch tnh t mc cn trn ca ngy hm qua n mc cn trn ca ngy hm nay.

Khong cch xu hng gi xung: - DM l khong cch t mc cn di ca ngy hm qua n mc cn di ca ngy hm nay.

V Vn Ho 219

Khong bin ng gi trong ngy thc t

(TR)

L khong cch ln nht ca:

- Mc cn trn ca ngy hm nay tr i mc cn di ca

ngy hm nay

- Mc cn di ca ngy hm nay tr i mc gi ng

ca ca ngy hm qua

- Mc gi ng ca ca ngy hm qua tr i mc cn

di ca ngy hm nay

V Vn Ho 220

Minh ha DM

+DM

- DM

DM Zero

+DM

- DM

+DM

V Vn Ho 221

Minh ha True Range

True range

True range

True range

True range

V Vn Ho 222

Phng php tnh h thng DM

Tnh Directional movement ngy hm nay.

Tnh khong bin ng gi thc t ny hm nay.

+DM14 = exponential moving average* ca +DM

-DM14 = exponential moving average* ca DM

TR14 = exponential moving average* ca True Range.

+DI 14= +DM14/TR14 x100

- DI 14 = - DM14/TR14 x100

V Vn Ho 223

Du hiu v hng

Mua vo khi ng +DI vt ln trn ng DI. Tt

ton giao dch khi +DI ct DI t trn xung.

Bn ra khi ng DI vt ln trn +DI. Tt ton giao

dch khi DI ct +DI t trn xung.

V Vn Ho 224

V Vn Ho 225 225

5. Di BOLLIGER

Do lch chun l thc o bin ng, do gii

Bolliger s t iu chnh, m rng khi th trng bin

ng v thu hp khi th trng bnh n.

Gii Bolliger gm 3 ng : ng gia (Middle

Band): chnh l ng trung bnh trt gin n (SMA),

ng di ( Lower Band ), ng trn (Upper Band)

Cng thc ng trn v ng di c xc nh nh

sau.

V Vn Ho 226 226

Di BOLLINGER

ng di tng t nh vy, thay vo l php tr. vi D l s lch chun ( 1,2,3.. )

V Vn Ho 227 227

Di BOLLINGER

Gi ca c phiu c khuynh hng bin ng trong

phm vi di bolliger.

S thay i ln v gi thng xut hin khi di Bolliger

hp li.

V Vn Ho 228

Di Envelope

Di Envelope c cu to tng i ging vi

Bollinger.

Envelope bao gm 2 ng :

- ng pha trn = MA (n) + D%*MA(n)

- ng pha di = MA (n) D%*MA(n)

V Vn Ho 229

6. ng MACD

Bc 1: Xc nh ng MA theo hm s m 12 k ca gi ng ca

Bc 2: Xc nh ng trung bnh ng theo hm s m 26 k ca gi ng ca

Bc 3: Ly khong chnh lch gia MA (12) v MA (26). y chnh l ng MACD c bn v l ng m hn

Bc 4: Xc nh ng trung bnh ng theo hm s m 9 k gi ng ca t MACD tnh bc 3. y l ng tn hiu v l ng m hn.

V Vn Ho 230

V Vn Ho 231

Ba cch nhn bit tn hiu MACD dng cho giao dch

1. S thay i v ln ca biu ct

2. S bin ng ca ng MACD

3. S giao nhau ca 2 ng MACD v 9 ngy EMA

MACD c chc nng g?

MACD cho chng ta bit s khc nhau gia 2 ng EMAs.

Mt tn hiu MACD tt cho thy ng EMA chu k 12 ngy

c giao dch trn ng EMA chu k 26 ngy. Ngc li,

tn hiu MACD xu cho thy ng EMA chu k 12 ngy

c giao dch di ng EMA 26 ngy. Nu MACD tt v

ang tng, khong cch gia ng EMD chu k 12 ngy v

26 ngy s cng ni lng. iu ny cho thy t l thay i ca

ng MA nhanh cao hn t l thay i ca ng MA chm.

Xu hng tng ln cho thy chu k tng gi ca th trng

v ngc li khi MACD xu v gim. ng MACD nm

ngay gia khi m ng MA nhanh v chm ct nhau!

V Vn Ho 232

MACD Tn hiu tng gi ( Bullish Signal)

MACD c hnh thnh tn hiu tng gi t 3 ch tiu sau:

1. S tn thun (Positive Divergence)

2. S giao nhau ca ng MACD i ln v ng MA ca n

(Bullish Moving Average Crossover).

3. S giao nhau ca ng MACD v ng trung tm (Bullish

Centerline Crossover)

S phn tn thun hnh thnh khi MACD bt u c xu hng i

ln trong khi gi ca chng khon vn ang trong xu hng i xung

v i xung thp hn im thp nht trc . Trong xu hng i ln

, MACD c th to ra mt chui cc di chuyn vi nh sau thp

hn nh trc hoc im sau cao hn im thp trc.

V Vn Ho 233

V Vn Ho 234

Quy tc giao dch

Quy tc 1: Thc hin giao dch mua vo khi ng MACD (ng m) ct ng tn hiu (ng nht) t di ln trn. Tt ton giao dch mua khi ng MACD th hin tn hiu th trng bn ra.

Quy tc 2: Bn ra khi ng MACD ct ng tn hiu t trn xung. Tt ton giao dch bn khi ng MACD c du hiu mua

V Vn Ho 235

S giao nhau vi ng MA trong xu

hng tng

S Giao nhau vi ng MA trong xu th tng hnh thnh khi

ng MACD di chuyn ct ng 9 ngy EMA ca chnh n (ng

tn hiu) t di ln.

V Vn Ho 236

S giao nhau vi ng trung tm trong xu

th tng

V Vn Ho 237

S giao nhau vi ng trung tm trong xu th tng l

s di chuyn ca ng MACD t vng nh hn 0 ln vng

ln hn 0. N th hin r rng s thay i ca lc y t m

sang dng hoc ni cch khc l xu th gim sang tng. Tn

hiu ny l tn hiu rt ph bin trong phn tch k thut.

V Vn Ho 238

S kt hp cc tn hiu

V Vn Ho 239

Trong biu trn chng ta thy c 3 tn hiu th hin xu

hng i ln v gi chng khon tng ln 20%. MACD

hnh thnh dng im sau cao hn im trng trc vn l

khuynh hng ca phn tn thun v MACD tao ra s Giao

nhau vi ng MA trong xu th tng bng cch ct ng 9

ngy EMA ca chnh n. V cui cng MACD vt qua 0.

V Vn Ho 240

Tn hiu gim gi Bearish Signal

MACD hnh thnh tn hiu suy gim t 3 ch tiu

sau. Tn hiu ca nhng ch tiu ny chnh l s

tng phn ca tn hiu tng gi

1. S phn tn nghch (Negative Divergence)

2. S giao nhau ca MACD v ng MA ca n trong

xu th gim (Bearish Moving Average Crossover)

3. S giao nhau ca MACD v ng trung tm trong

xu th gim (Bearish Centerline Crossover)

V Vn Ho 241

S phn tn nghch

V Vn Ho 242

S phn tn nghch hnh thnh khi c phiu c xu

hng tng gi hoc xu hng di chuyn ngang trong lc

MACD suy gim. S phn tn nghch ca MACD c th c

dng nh sau thp hn nh c hoc gim thng. S phn

tn nghch c th l tn hiu t ph bin nht trong 3 tn hiu

ca xu hng gim tuy nhin n l tn hiu ng tin cy v

c th l du hiu cnh bo s chm nh.

V Vn Ho 243

S giao nhau trong xu th gim

V Vn Ho 244

Tn hiu giao nhau ca MACD v ng MA ca chnh

n l tn hiu rt ph bin. S giao nhau vi ng MA

trong xu th gim xy ra khi ng MACD tt xung di

ng 9 ngy EMA ca chnh n.

V Vn Ho 245

S giao nhau vi ng trung tm trong xu

th gim

V Vn Ho 246

u im ca MACD

Kh nng th hin cng mt lc ng nng v xu hng ca th trng. L mt ch s di chuyn theo xu hng s dng phng php MA hng di chuyn ca n s khng sai lch nhiu v lun cng hng vi c phiu. ng thi s p dng EMA thay cho SMA gip ch s MACD gim bt c mt s yu t gy chm.

L mt ch s th hin ng lc, MACD c kh nng bo trc s di chuyn ca c phiu. S phn tn ca MACD c s dng nh cha kha chnh choa vic d on s i chiu. S phn tn nghch c th l du hiu cnh bo kh nng i chiu t tng sang gim. N c th l du hiu cho nhng nh u t tin hnh thu li t vic bn ra c phiu ang nm gi hoc tin hnh bn khng.

MACD c th p dng vo biu ngy, thng hoc nm. MACD th hin s hi t hoc phn tn ca hai ng MA. i vi th tun c th s dng chu k ngn hn. ng thi mi nh u t c th thay i chu k ca MACD cho thch hp vi kiu giao dch, mc ch v mc chp nhn ri ro.

V Vn Ho 247

Nhc im ca MACD u im ca MACD ng thi cng l nhc im chnh l s dng MA.

MA c nhiu loi, tuy nhin chng l ch s chm. iu ny anh hng nhiu

n th thng hn l th ngy. C gii php cho vn ny l s dng

biu MACD.

MACD khng thc s hiu qu trong nh gi mc d mua hoc vt bn.

Tuy n c th hin vt mua, vt bn da vo d liu qu nh nhng

MACD khng c mc gii hn trn v di hn ch s di chuyn ca n.

Do , MACD c th tip tc di chuyn vt ra ngoi khong d liu trong qu

kh.

MACD tnh ton gi tr tuyt i ca s khc nhau gia hai ng MA thay v

phn trm khc nhau. MACD c hnh thnh t hiu s ca 2 ng MA khi

m c phiu tng gi, s khc nhau gia 2 ng s tng. V vy, s rt kh

so snh mc MACD trong khong thi gian di nht l i vi c phiu tng

gi t bin.

V Vn Ho 248

Biu MACD

Quy tc 1: Mua vo khi biu MACD i ln (khi biu

ny nm di ng zero).

Quy tc 2: Bn ra khi biu MACD i xung ( khi

biu ny nm trn ng zero)

V Vn Ho 249

nh ngha v cu trc Biu MACD cho thy s khc nhau gia ng MACD v ng MA ca n, ng EMA(9). th cho thy s khc bit ny c hin th di dng biu ct , lm cho s giao nhau vi ng trung tm v s phn tn c nhn din d dng hn. S giao nhau vi ng MACD cng ging nh s giao nhau vi ng MA ca MACD. S giao nhau vi ng MA xut hin khi MACD di chuyn trn hay di ng tn hiu kch hot hay cn gi l ng EMA (9) ca chnh MACD.

V Vn Ho 250

nh ngha v cu trc Khi gi tr ca MACD ln hn gi tr ca EMA(9) th gi tr ca MACD trn biu s l gi tr dng v ngc li s l gi tr m.

S gia tng hay suy gim ca khong cch gia MACD v ng EMA ca n s biu th trong biu ct MACD. S gia tng mng trong biu ct MACD cho thy MACD ang tng nhanh hn ng EMA(9) ca n v ng lc tng cng ln. Ngc li th ng lc gim s cng ln.

V Vn Ho 251

V Vn Ho 252

Trong th pha trn biu MACD di chuyn c lp

vi MACD. i khi MACD tng trong khi biu ct li

gim. Trong trng hp khc, MACD gim trong khi biu

li tng. Biu MACD khng cho bit chnh xc gi tr

ca MACD nhng cho bit gi tr tng quan ca MACD v

ng EMA (9) . Thng s di chuyn ca ng MACD

c d on trc bi s phn tn trong biu ct

MACD.

V Vn Ho 253

Cc du hiu

Du hiu chnh c hnh thnh vi biu ct MACD

l s phn tn, tip theo l s giao nhau vi ng MA ca

MACD. Du hiu v mt chu k tng xut hin khi s phn

tn thun c hnh thnh v s giao nhau vi ng trung

tm trong xu th tng c hnh thnh v ngc li. Lu

rng du hiu giao nhau vi ng trung tm ca biu

MACD tng ng vi s giao nhau vi ng MA ca

th MACD.

Hai dng chnh ca s phn tn l s phn tn nghing

v tch nhau nh hoc y.

V Vn Ho 254

S phn tn nghing

V Vn Ho 255

S phn tn nghing c hnh thnh khi s di chuyn

lin tip v mt hng (ln hay xung) to thnh s

phn tn. S phn tn nghing thng c chu chu k

ngn hn s phn tn c hnh thnh hai nh hay hai

vng trng.

V Vn Ho 256

S phn tch vng nh hoc vng trng

V Vn Ho 257

S phn tch vng nh hoc vng trng xut hin khi c t

nht hai nh hoc 2 vng trng hnh thnh mt hng to

thnh s phn tn. Mt chui t hai hay nhiu vng trng

tng dn ln c th to thnh s phn tn thun v ngc li

chui cc nh ang gim c th to thnh s phn tn

nghch. Chu k thi gian ca s phn tn ny di hn s phn

tn nghing.

S phn tn cng ln v cng su th tn hiu tip theo s

cng chnh xc. S phn tn ngn v cn thng dn ti tn

hiu sai.

V Vn Ho 258

Li ch ca biu MACD

on trc c cc tn hiu MACD. S phn tn

thng xut hin trong biu MACD trc s giao

nhau vi ng MA ca MACD.

V Vn Ho 259

V Vn Ho 260

Trong th tun ca IBM, biu MACD xut hin 4

tn hiu. Trc mi s giao nhau vi ng MA trong biu

MACD u c s phn tn to thnh biu MACD.

Chu k ca ng MA c rt ngn v 6 v 12 thch

ng vi th tun. Biu MACD chnh l hiu s ca 12

tun v 6 tun EMA. ng 6 tun EMA ca MACD c

dng nh ng kch hot. Biu MACD c xc nh

bng s khc bit gia ng MACD (6/12) v ng EMA

(6) ca MACD.

V Vn Ho 261

1. S giao nhau vi ng MA trong xu hng gim vo

thng 1/1999.

2. S giao nhau vi ng MA trong xu th tng t thng 4.

3. S giao nhau vi ng MA trong xu hng gim vo

cui thng 7.

4. S giao nhau vi ng MA trong xu hng tng c

hnh thnh bi s phn tn nghch.

V Vn Ho 262

Hn ch ca biu MACD

Biu MACD l tn hiu ca cc tn hiu. Biu

MACD l pht sinh u tin ca bin ng v gi c

phiu v biu ct MACD l pht sinh th 2 ca cc

bin ng v gi ca c phiu.

Biu MACD c to ra on trc cc du hiu

ca MACD v lun c cm d v vic on trc cc s

vic.

Nn cn thn vi cc s phn tn nh v nng.

V Vn Ho 263

B. DAO NG CA GI 1. ADX

2. RSI

3. STO

4. MFI

5.CMF

6. Momentum

7. Price ROC

8. Williams % R

9. CCI

V Vn Ho 264

1.ng ADX (Average Directional Index)

ADX l s kt hp gia 2 ng +DI v DI . ADX o sc mnh ca xu hng ch khng phi ch ra xu hng. Nh u t cng cn lu rng ADX ch l ng th hin sc mnh ca mt xu hng, bt k l xu hng tng hay gim. Gi s th trng ang trong xu hng gim, ADX thp hn 20 ng ngha xu hng hin hu suy yu. Nh u t s phi chun b cho mt xu hng tip theo. Tuy nhin, s tng tr li ca ADX trn mc 20 khng c ngha th trng s o chiu v tng tr li. iu ny ch cho thy th trng xut hin mt xu hng mi, c th l tng hoc th trng vn c th li ri t do.

V Vn Ho 265

1.ng ADX (Average Directional Index)

Nu ADX di 20 th xu hng s b yu i

Nu ADX trn 40 th xu hng s rt mnh

ADXR c tnh nh sau:

ADXR = [ADX (today) +ADX (14 days ago)]/2

V Vn Ho 266

V Vn Ho 267

D tm nh y th trng s dng ADX

1. Biu din 3 ng ADX, DI+, DI- trn cng mt biu . M hnh s bt u khi ADX nm trn c DI+ v DI-. Trong trng hp ny, ADX hu ht u c gi tr cao, thng thng trn 35. ADX cao cho thy xu hng din ra ca th trng l mt xu hng mnh. V nh u t s c nm bt c hi t mt kh nng o chiu.

2. Nu ADX bt u suy gim, nh u t cn quan st s giao nhau ca hai ng DI+ v DI-. Nu DI- i ln v ct DI+, xu hng tng hin ti yu i. Nh u t nn xem xt cht li trc khi xu hng mi bt u. Ngc li, DI- i xung v ct DI+ cho thy xu hng gim c du hiu kt thc. Nh u t c th xem y l du hiu mua vo, ch i xu hng tng sp ti.

3. Trong trng hp th trng i ngc vi d on, nh u t cn lu a ra quyt nh iu chnh ti nh/y gn nht. Ngoi ra, DI+ v DI- c th ct nhau vi ln trc khi xu hng mi thc s bt u.

V Vn Ho 268 268

2. ng RSI

RSI = 100 100/(1+RS)

Trung bnh li = Tong li/n

Trung bnh lo = Tong lo/n

RS au tien = (Trung bnh li/Trung bnh lo)

RS tiep theo =

n la so thi ky cua RSI

Loss)/14Current 13 x loss Average (Previous

Gain)/14Current 13gain x Average (Previous

V Vn Ho 269

269

Close Chg Adva Decl AvgGain AvgLoss RS RSI

46.125

1 47.125 1 1

2 46.4375 -0.6875 -0.6875

3 46.9375 0.5 0.5

4 44.9375 -2 -2

5 44.25 -0.6875 -0.6875

6 44.625 0.375 0.375

7 45.75 1.125 1.125

8 47.8125 2.0625 2.0625

9 47.5625 -0.25 -0.25

10 47 -0.5625 -0.5625

11 44.5625 -2.4375 -2.4375

12 46.3125 1.75 1.75

13 47.6875 1.375 1.375

14 46.6875 -1 -1 0.5848 -0.5446 1.0738 51.7787

15 45.6875 -1 -1 0.543 -0.5772 0.9409 48.4771

16 43.0625 -2.625 -2.625 0.5043 -0.7234 0.697 41.0734

17 43.5625 0.5 0.5 0.504 -0.6718 0.7502 42.8634

18 44.875 1.3125 1.3125 0.5617 -0.6238 0.9005 47.3818

19 43.6875 -1.1875 -1.1875 0.5216 -0.664 0.7855 43.9921

V Vn Ho 270 270

LU

Khi trung bnh li ln hn trung bnh lo, ng RSI

i len v RS se ln hn 1. Ngc lai, khi trung bnh

lo ln hn trung bnh li, ng RSI se i xuong v

RS se nho hn 1.

Khi RSI i len ln hn 30 th gia co phieu se i len,

ngc lai neu RSI ri xuong 70 o la dau hieu cua

th trng i xuong.

V Vn Ho 271

Kt hp ADX V RSI

Khi no th bn? Bi l cc nh u t s ri ro s khng tham gia vo th trng nh vy. i vi phng php u t ny, cc chuyn gia s dng RSI 9 ngy xc nh im cht li. Nh u t nn cht li khi RSI 9 ngy vt qua mc 75. Mt khc, nhm cc nh u t mo him l lun rng tht khng hp l khi mua vo lc RSI cao v bn ra khi RSI vn cao. Quan im ny cho rng nh u t nn b qua RSI sau khi mua v ch bn ra khi ADX c du hiu suy gim. Khi ADX i ln, RSI thng c xu hng i vo vng mua qu mc (overbought) v i khi s nm trong vng ny mt khong thi gian tng i di. S dng phng php trn, nh u t c th tham gia vo th trng v tm thy li nhun.

V Vn Ho 272

3. ng OSCILLATOR

V Vn Ho 273

V Vn Ho 274

4. CH S DNG TIN (MONEY FLOW INDEX

MFI)

TNG QUAN:

L mt cng c so snh gia dng tin dng v dng tin

m to ra mt du hiu ch bo c th so snh vi gi chng

khon nhm xc nhn xu hng tng, gim gimt loi CK c th

SO SNH MFI VI RSI:

MFI c hiu v tnh ton tng t RSI. Tuy nhin, nu

nh RSI ch ch trng vo yu t gi CK th MFI c tnh n c

yu t khi lng giao dch nn n l mt cng c tt trong vic

xem xt sc mnh ca dng tin ra vo mt chng khon.

Tng t RSI, MFI c o lng trong khong t 0 ti 100

v thng c tnh trong khong k hn 14 ngy.

V Vn Ho 275

CH S DNG TIN (MONEY FLOW INDEX MFI)

CNG THC

Trc tin, chng ta cn tnh dng tin ca mi CK (money flow)

Money Flow = (Typical Price) x (Volume)

MFI so snh t s ca lung tin dng v m. Nu gi ngy hm

nay cao hn hm qua, n c cho l tin dng ( positive money),

cn ngc li l tin m (negative money). Trong 14 ngy, tng tt c

cc tin dng c gi l lung tin dng( positive money flow).

MFI c tnh da trn t s tin:

V Vn Ho 276

CH S DNG TIN (MONEY FLOW INDEX MFI)

Cui cng, MFI c tnh da trn t s:

Ch : cng t ngy c s dng tnh MFI th tnh

linh ng cng cao.

V Vn Ho 277

CH S DNG TIN: NG DNG

MFI c 2 ng dng c bn:

S phn k ( o chiu xu th):

Nu ng MFI khng cng chiu ng gi m ngc

chiu, xu hng hin ti ca gi c th b o ngc.

Vng mua qu nhiu vng bn qu nhiu (overbought/oversold):

- Nu ng MFI trn mc 80 ngha l th trng ang trong

tnh trng mua qu nhiu v gi tng cao. Gi s iu chnh tr li khi

MFI i xung thp hn 80 cho ta tn hiu SELL.

- Nu ng MFI di mc 20 ngha l th trng ang

trong tnh trng bn qu nhiu v gi gim qu thp. Gi s iu chnh

tr li khi MFI i vt ln mc 20 cho ta tn hiu BUY.

V Vn Ho 278

CH S DNG TIN: V D

V Vn Ho 279

CH S DNG TIN: V D

V Vn Ho 280

CH S DNG TIN: V D LAF

Nov ember Decem

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Chuong 6 Phan Tich Ky Thuat