VN THC HIN CAM KT(L THUYT TR CHI)

CHNG 8

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CHNG 8. VN THC HIN CAM KT

8.1 Cc bc i chin lc8.2 Cam kt trong m phn8.3 i u ht nhn Nga M

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(4 ; 3) (2 ; 4) (3 ; 2) (1 ; 1) Cao

Thp

Thp Cao

M

NHT

8.1 Cc bc i chin lcCuc chy ua gia M v Nht

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8.1 Cc bc i chin lcGii thch thu hoch

Hai bn u cho rng cuc ua u t mc caol kch bn xu nht Nht cho rng nh vy biM c nhiu kh nng thng trong cuc u tonlc ny hn, cn M th lo ngi bi chi ph qucao. Hy gi l thu hoch 1 cho mi bn.

Kt qu xu th hai (thu hoch 2) i vi mi bnl khi h theo ui mc u t thp trong khi itc dc ton lc: iu cng ging vi khi bnvn tiu tin m hu nh khng c c hi chinthng.

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8.1 Cc bc i chin lcGii thch thu hoch

Kt qu tt nht i vi Nht (thu hoch 4) lkhi h theo ui mc u t cao trong khi Mtheo ui mc thp; c hi thnh cng ca hl rt cao v vn chi ph i vi h khngquan trng.

i vi M, tnh hung kh quan nht l khi chai cng u t mc thp; h s c kh nngthng nhiu hn mc thp ny.

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Gi s rng M ginh c quyn i trc.

H cng b n lc v iu kin ca mnhtrc khi ngi Nht t n quyt nh camnh.

iu ny bin tr chi vi cc bc i ngthi thnh tr chi vi cc bc i lunphin/tun t v M l nc i trc.

8.1 Cc bc i chin lcChuyn bi thnh thng

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8.1 Cc bc i chin lcCuc chy ua gia M v Nht

Cao ThpM

USJA

NHT NHT Cao Thp

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Cao Thp

1 1

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Bc i chin lc mang li th n cho Mchnh l tuyn b n phng v v iu kin vla chn ca h. La chn ny khng phi l ci m Ms chn trong tr chi ng thi. y l ch m t duychin lc bc vo.

hnh x mt cch chin lc, bn phi cam kt khngtheo ui chin lc cn bng trong tr chi vi cc bci lun phin. Bc i chin lc thay i k vngca ngi Nht v do vy lm thay i c cu trli ca h.

8.1 Cc bc i chin lc

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Mt bc i chin lc c thit k lm thay isuy ngh v hnh ng ca nhng ngi khc theo hngc li cho bn.

c im ca cc bc i l hn ch mt cch cmc ch s t do trong hnh ng ca bn.

Nhng s thiu t do ca bn c mt gi tr chinlc.

N lm thay i k vng ca nhng ngi khc vcu tr li ca bn trong tng lai v bn c th biniu thnh li th cho mnh.

8.1 Cc bc i chin lcMc ch, c im v vai tr

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1. V sao Nht li phi tin vo li tuyn b ca M?

2. Chng l Nht khng tnh n kh nng M s i haysao?

3. Nu tnh n iu ny th h c nn c chn n lc mc cao hay khng?

Tnh ng tin cy trong bc i trc v iu kinca M l cn phi t cu hi. Nu khng ng tin, bc i s chng c tc dng g. Hu ht cc bc i chinlc phi i mt vi vn v mc tin cy.

8.1 Cc bc i chin lcMt s cu hi v mc tin cy

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bc i chin lc tr nn ng tin, bn cn lm thmmt ng tc h tr khin cho vic o ngc bc i l rt tn km, thm ch l khng th. Tnh ng tin cyi hi phi c cam kt i vi bc i chin lc.

Thng thng cho li cam kt ca mnh l tin cy c;ngi ra cam kt phi thc hin mt s hnh ng m itc c th quan st c. Quan trng hn, hnh ng s gy nn tn ph ln nht cho ngi lm cam kt,nu anh ta nut li. Khi tin hnh nhng hnh ng nhvy, anh ta pht tn hiu cho i tc rng cam kt sc gi vng, cho d ngi ra cam kt c th ly lm tic v hnh ng nh vy.

8.1 Cc bc i chin lcMt s cu hi v mc tin cy

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Chng ta phi t chc mt cuc chin tht khclit. K th ng hng t c tay ln d chming bnh, lt du no. Cc nng trang phi lan gia sc ca mnh ra khi y v nh ton bcy lng thc ln. Ci g khng th ly i thhy tiu hy. Cc cy cu v cc con ng phic gi mn. Rng v cc kho hng phi tton b. Chng ta phi to ra nhng iu kinkhng th chu ni cho k th.

Joseph Stalin, tuyn b v cuc phng th vn khng nhtrng chng qun pht xt, ngy 3 thng 7 nm 1941.

8.1 Cc bc i chin lcV d: Chin lc vn khng nh trng

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8.1 Cc bc i chin lcPhn loi

Cc bc i chin lc

V iu kin C iu kin

p buc Lm nn ch p buc Lm nn ch

e da Ha hn Mt bc i viu kin lmt quy tc iph trong bn i trc vhnh ng cabn l xc nh.

e da v ha hns ny sinh khi bnl ngi i sau. lcc bc c iu kindo cu tr li b chi phibi mt quy tc phthuc vo iu m iphng lm.

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8.2 Cam kt trong m phnTnh hung SIS v ABC

Gi s SIS khng c sc mnh c quyn tuyt i; nhngcng chng d b thay th bi cc nh cung cp khc, do haibn to dng c nim tin vi nhau trong lm n. Khi, vic chia i 50:50 phn ch li cn li em ra m phnxem ra nh l mt kt cc c l.

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Nhng cn mt cch khc, m qua k vng ca cc bnhi t, l mt bn tm cch gy nh hng ln k vng cabn kia thng qua kh nng lm cam kt.

Trong v d nu, gi s SIS n phng a ra yu cutrc vi ABC v iu mnh mun. V tuyn b s khng mphn tip na, nu bn mua dch v t chi li t. Thmvo , gi s ABC thc s tin rng bn bn, tc l SIS, sgi vng cam kt. Khi SIS s i hi c hu ht ch licn li t giao dch.

Chin lc m phn tt nht l chi t m phn. TheoThomas Schelling, nghch l l kh nng khng ch iphng l thuc vo kh nng t khng ch mnh.

8.2 Cam kt trong m phnThay i nim tin, thay i hnh ng

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s dng chin lc cam kt mt cch chiu qu, bn a ra cam kt phi lm cho itc tin rng, li cam kt s c gi vng, chod anh ta (bn a ra cam kt) c th thy ticl lm nh vy.

Ni khc i, cam kt ch c hiu lc, mt khin c lm cho tin cy. Mt trong cch tn kh nng gi cam kt l vic t cc vouy tn.

8.2 Cam kt trong m phnCam kt hiu qu

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Vic nut li ngy hm nay ng ngha vi vicmt kh nng lm cam kt trong tng lai. Chnhv vy m tin l c ngha i vi cc bn mphn.Chp nhn mt s nhng b hin ti s khincho li ha trong tng lai ca bn v vic trungthnh vi i hi ca mnh khng cn ng tincy na.Mt cch t cam kt n tng hn l t chycu: tc l dn xp s vic theo cch nu bnnut li, bn s b thit hi nng nht.

8.2 Cam kt trong m phnCam kt hiu qu

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