COMISIN NACIONAL DE ENERGAGONZALO DEL CASTILLO 11 DICIEMBRE 2007 PERSPECTIVA ACTUAL Y EVOLUCIN DE LAS ENERGAS RENOVABLES EN ESPAA. BIOCARBURANTES

NDICE

PRESENTACIN: QU ES AOPPOR QU BIOS?: ESCENARIO/PROSPECTIVASITUACIN ACTUAL: NECESIDAD DE LOS BIOCOMBUSTIBLES SOLUCIONES. VENTAJAS. PROBLEMASPOSICIN DEL SECTOR PETROLEROEL FUTURORESUMEN Y CONCLUSIONES

*

AOP: ASOCIACIN ESPAOLA DE OPERADORES DE PRODUCTOS PETROLFEROSEL PRINCIPAL OBJETIVO DE AOP ES LA DEFENSA DE LOS INTERESES GENERALES DE SUS ASOCIADOS ESTABLECIENDO UNA SERIE DE PRIORIDADES EN LAS ACTUACIONES QUE TIENEN EN CUENTA EL INTERS PARTICULAR DE LAS COMPAAS Y EL SERVICIO QUE LA ASOCIACIN PUEDE PRESTAR A LA SOCIEDAD:SEGUIMIENTO DE LA LEGISLACIN PETROLERA Y COLABORACIN CON LAS AUTORIDADES COMPETENTES DE LA ADMINISTRACIN, DANDO SU OPININ EN AQUELLOS ASUNTOS QUE AFECTAN AL SECTOR.RESPONSABILIDAD CON EL MEDIO AMBIENTE, LAS CONDICIONES DE SEGURIDAD E HIGIENE DE LAS INSTALACIONES O PUNTOS DE VENTA Y DISTRIBUCIN DE PRODUCTOS PETROLFEROS, AS COMO LA SEGURIDAD DE LOS MISMOS PARA LOS CONSUMIDORES.*

ESCENARIO/PROSPECTIVA

ESCENARIOEN 2030 SE NECESITAR UN 50 % MS DE ENERGA QUE HOY.LAS RESERVAS DE HIDROCARBUROS SE ENCUENTRAN EN LOS LMITES TECNOLGICOS.EL CAMBIO CLIMTICO ES UN NUEVO Y GRAVE PROBLEMA.EL CAMPO DE ACTIVIDAD DE LAS COMPAAS PETROLERAS ES LA ENERGA.ENUNCIADO: UN PROBLEMA GLOBALCONDICIONES EMPRESARIALES: UN MARCO NUEVOSOLUCIN: NO EXISTE UNA SOLATODAS LAS FUENTES DE ENERGA MERECEN ATENCIN.TODAS LAS TECNOLOGAS SON IMPORTANTES.EL MONOCLIENTE DEL PETRLEO ES EL TRANSPORTE.LAS COMPAAS NO VAN A DESAPARECER DEL MAPA.EL TRANSPORTE CONTRIBUYE CON EL 25% A LAS EMISIONES DE CO2.LA DIVERSIFICACIN DEL SUMINISTRO ES MS NECESARIA CADA DA.

INCREMENTO DE LAS IMPORTACIONES NETAS DE CRUDO, 2006-2030 LAS NUEVAS POLTICAS REDUCEN LA DEMANDA GLOBAL EN 14 mb/d EN 2030PROSPECTIVA: EN 2030 EL MUNDO NECESITAR UN 50 % MS DE ENERGA Fuente: AIE

LAS MEJORAS TECNOLGICAS POSIBILITAN RECUPERAR RECURSOS ANTES INACCESIBLES1984184,1m20041.424,6mESCENARIO: LAS RESERVAS YA NO SON LO QUE ERAN

DISTRIBUCIN DE LAS RESERVAS PROBADAS DE CRUDO (2006)PESADO 11%EXTRAPESADO 23%MEDIO 44%LIGERO 22%SOMERO 34%:NO CONVENCIONAL 20%CONVENCIONAL 14%MEDIO 45%PROFUNDO 21%Fuente: O&GJ (12 Nov 2007)LIGERO >35 APIMEDIO 26-35 APIPESADO 10-26 APIEXTRAPESADO 3.500 mCONVENCIONALNO CONVENCIONAL(1 Billn = 1 Giga= 1012)1,4 Billones de Bbl3,0 Billones de Bbl5,6 Billones de Bbl2,8 Billones de BblTotal: 12,8 Billones de Bbl4,4 Billones de Bbl5,7 Billones de Bbl2,7 Billones de BblTotal: 12,8 Billones de BblEL CRUDO BUENO TAMBIN ES UN RECUERDO*

Grfico1

0.230.1093750.43750.22

LIGERO

MEDIO

PESADO

EXTRA PESADO

Hoja2

1012 Bbl%

LIGERO323%

MEDIO1.411%

PESADO5.644%

EXTRA PESADO2.822%

12.8100%

1012 Bbl%

SOMERO4.434%

MEDIO5.745%

PROFUNDO2.721%

12.8100%

Hoja1

NOMBRE DEL CRUDOANALISISAPI

ALBAEC-14/9419.220.9388

ALIFC.B. 198639.390.8280

AL ZAAFARANAEC-07/9523.300.9141

AMALEC-23/8932.120.8648

ANASURIA BLENDSHELL 04/9736.750.8410

AMNAEC-15/9236.810.8407

ANGOLA BLENDEC-48/8535.360.8480

ANTANEC-06/9034.170.8541

ARABIA EXTRA LIGEROARAMCO 11/7/9637.460.8375

ARABIA LIGERO2/38C/9833.190.8592

ARABIA MEDIO?????31.520.8680

ARABIA PESADO2/92C/9728.590.8839

ARABIA SUPER LIGEROARAMCO 4/9451.080.7750

ASHTART2/133C/9629.880.8768

AZERBAIJAN BLENDBP 9/09/199834.680.8515

AZERISAYBOLT 26/03/9725.840.8993

BACHAQUERO-13EC-12/7714.000.9725

BACHAQUERO-17LAGOVEN 2/9115.730.9611

BACHAQUERO-22LAGOVEN 5/8922.200.9206

BARRACUDA2/23/148/1076/0031.840.8663

BASRAHSTATOIL-9434.720.8513

BELAYIMEC-14/9228.220.8859

BELAYIM LAND2/07C/9621.340.9258

BOLIVIANOEC-06/9450.700.7766

BONNY LIGHT2/44C/9734.930.8502

BONNY MEDIO2/21C/9626.300.8967

BOQUERN2/105C/9738.490.8324

BOSCANEC-13/919.941.0004

BOURIEC-07/9126.370.8963

BRASS RIVEREC-08/9242.760.8120

BREGAEC-12/8740.410.8231

BRENTSTATOIL 9/9638.180.8339

BRUNEI LIGHT11/9440.430.8230

BUATTI FELSGS-7/9443.650.8079

CAADON SECOEC-01/9528.010.8871

CAO LIMONEC-30/8928.990.8817

CAPTAIN09/9319.000.9402

CASABLANCAEC-05/9332.580.8624

CHELEKENSAYBOLT 9736.690.8413

CONDENSADO ARGELINO2/78C/9664.370.7224

CONDENSADO BOLIVIANOCORE L. 12/13/9454.270.7617

CONDENSADO BREGA??????67.100.7125

CONDENSADO QATARTOTAL-14/08/9658.970.7429

CUSIANA31/08/199839.500.8275

CYRUSI.P.A.C. 05/6719.130.9394

DJENOELF 20/02/9726.950.8930

DOUGLASSGS/10/9443.060.8106

DRAUGENCHEVRON 1/9340.140.8244

DUBAIEC-12/9332.060.8651

DUCEC-09/9434.170.8541

DURWARD BLEND17/04/199635.620.8467

EAST ZEITH MIXEXXON39.080.8295

EBOME034.290.8535

EKOFISK2/34C/9838.490.8324

EL HAMRA BLENDEC-04/9240.680.8218

EMERALDNESTE 5/9323.620.9122

EOCENETEXACO 28/04/9719.300.9383

ESCALANTEEC-03/9223.530.9127

ESCRAVOSEC-02/9435.840.8456

ES SHARARA2/128C/9843.130.8103

ES SIDEREC-06/9235.960.8450

EZZAOUIAEC-10/9140.200.8241

FAO BLENDEC-18/9029.520.8788

FIFESGS 9536.070.8444

FLOTTA2/16C/9637.030.8396

FOINAVENBP-14/08/9425.290.9025

FORCADOS2/32C/9829.810.8772

FOROOZANEC-04/9531.220.8696

FORTIESEC-15/9339.190.8290

GALEOTATRI-TOBAGO26.570.8952

GALOTA MIXAMOCO 6/9833.710.8565

GEISUMEC-03/9119.320.9382

GRYPHONEC-18/9421.440.9252

GUAFITA BLENDINTEVEP 9429.810.8772

GULLFAKSEC-10/9329.630.8782

GULLFAKS_CSTATOIL 3/11/9435.620.8467

HAMADA16/07/9239.060.8296

HARDINGBP 6/9118.950.9405

HEIDRUNEC-06/9527.330.8909

HERMONDSTATOIL 12/9119.080.9397

HUDSONCORE LAB.38.800.8309

HYDRAEC-09/9239.970.8252

IMAAMNI-ABACAN43.080.8105

IRAN LIGEROEC-11/9333.730.8564

IRAN PESADOEC-17/9129.920.8766

ISTMUS2/77C/9733.190.8592

JABIRUBHP 3/8942.270.8143

KHAFJIA.O.C. 7828.590.8839

KHALDAEC-05/9242.910.8113

KIAMESONANGOL 09/9829.170.8807

KIRKUKF2/7C/9934.850.8506

KITINAAGIP 03/9838.740.8312

KOCH ALBERTACORE LAB JUL-9732.770.8614

KOLEELF 2/08/9732.840.8610

KUITOCHEVRON 10/9820.020.9339

KUWAITEC-09/9331.610.8675

LAGOMARMARAVEN 8/8832.080.8650

LAMINARIANATA 2/9558.100.7463

LANDES MIXEC-08/9033.130.8595

LAVAN BLENDNIOC-08/9334.350.8532

LENNOXCORE/04/9347.500.7905

LEONAINTEVEP-02/9423.990.9100

LIONTOTAL-09/9536.000.8448

LOKELEEC-43/8519.530.9369

LORETOCOM.AM.-01/9519.300.9383

MALONGOEC-12/9232.050.8652

MANDJIF2/46C/9929.090.8811

MARIB LIGHT2/70C/9749.260.7828

MARLIMPETROBRAS19.790.9353

MASILACANADIAN-9330.860.8715

MAYA2/23/155/0988/0021.440.9252

MEDANITOEC-03/9435.880.8454

MEREYEC-10/9415.560.9622

MESA2/89C/9729.660.8780

MESLA2/05C/9638.330.8332

MISKARCALEB B.-26/07/9549.280.7827

MOUDI2/20C/9636.330.8431

NC115SGS 9641.020.8202

NEMBA06/9538.490.8324

NILE BLENDSPC 17/9/9834.460.8526

NINIANEC-20/8938.350.8331

NJORDSTATOIL 23/3/8937.640.8366

N'KOSSAELF 6/09/9639.190.8290

N'KOSSA_97ELF 12/04/9746.530.7948

NORNESTATOIL 3-03/9332.790.8613

NORTH WEST SHELF COND.10/199559.590.7405

ODUDU BLEND2/104C/9727.130.8920

OLMECACORE LAB. 08/9240.620.8221

OMANEC-02/8335.620.8467

ORIENTE LIGEROUOP-5/9129.000.8816

OSEBERGELF-03/9535.900.8453

OSSO CONDENSADO2/23/155/0055/0047.340.7912

PALANCAEC-05/9438.980.8300

PENNINGTONF2/237C/9934.190.8540

PIERCERANGER O.-08/9637.030.8396

PILONLAGOVEN 3/9112.420.9832

PRINOSNAPC-9532.390.8634

QATAR MARINOEC-04/8236.490.8423

QUA IBOE2/127C/9736.070.8444

RABI LIGHTELF-03/9634.290.8535

RAINBOWCOMS. AMER. 7/9339.390.8280

RAS BUDRAMEC-15/9425.740.8999

RAS GHARIBEC-14/8121.700.9236

RATAWITEXACO-06/9524.200.9088

RESIDUO E-4EC-36/8819.080.9397

RESIDUO M100-15.330.9637

RHEMOURA2/12C/9631.990.8655

RODABALLO2/89C/9641.690.8170

ROSPO MAREEC-11/9113.610.9751

SAHARA BLEND2/31C/9843.560.8083

SANTA BRBARACORPOVEN 11/9535.800.8458

SANTA CRUZ SUR17/11/199444.800.8026

SARIR2/118C/9637.190.8388

SCHIEHALLIONSHELL 6/9525.460.9015

SHABWAHSHELL 03/9035.760.8460

SHARJAHAMOCO C.-5/12/9359.100.7424

SIBERIA LIGHT2/64C/9835.070.8495

SIRIPHILLIPS 66 12/9538.120.8342

SIRIAN LIGHTF2/234C/9936.090.8443

SIRTICA2/150C/9639.520.8274

SLEIPNEREC-02/9559.180.7421

SOUEDIEEC-17/9422.720.9175

SOUTH ARNESGS 9636.350.8430

SOUTH BLEND-29.200.8805

SOYO2/48C/9639.170.8291

STATFJORDSTATOIL 9/9638.310.8333

SUEZ BLENDEC-16/9129.850.8770

TACHING(DAQUING)EC-04/8632.250.8641

TAKULAEC-10/9232.500.8628

TAPIS BLENDEXXON-11/8845.570.7991

TAZERKAEC-03/9531.330.8690

TCHATAMBANOV-9744.100.8058

TEMPA ROSSAFINA 9616.500.9561

TENGIZ2/157C/9946.380.7955

THEVENARD BLENDCOED 6/9537.560.8370

TIA JUANA LIG.EC-22/8531.970.8656

TROLLSTATOIL 11/02/9728.370.8851

UKPOKITICONOCO 17/10/9741.820.8164

UPPER ZAKUM-33.090.8597

URAL LIGERO2/99C/9732.390.8634

URAL PESADO1/06/9231.110.8702

VASCONIA-25.370.9020

VIC BIHLEXXON 3/8521.590.9243

WIDURISAYBOLT 5/09/8933.320.8585

YOMBOAMOCO17.700.9484

ZAFIRO EXPORT BLENDF2/77C/9933.570.8572

ZAIRECHEVRON-8931.240.8695

ZARZAITINEEC-12/9442.250.8144

ZEITH BAYMARATHON(05-93)36.510.8422

ZEITH BLENDEC-32/8432.540.8626

ZUEITINAEC-24/8740.600.8222

Grfico1

0.218750.43750.1093750.234375

LIGERO

MEDIO

PESADO

EXTRA PESADO

Grfico2

0.21093750.44531250.34375

PROFUNDO

MEDIO

SOMERO

Hoja2

1012 Bbl%

LIGERO2.822%

MEDIO5.644%

PESADO1.411%

EXTRA PESADO323%

12.8100%

1012 Bbl%

PROFUNDO2.721%

MEDIO5.745%

SOMERO4.434%

12.8100%

Hoja1

NOMBRE DEL CRUDOANALISISAPI

ALBAEC-14/9419.220.9388

ALIFC.B. 198639.390.8280

AL ZAAFARANAEC-07/9523.300.9141

AMALEC-23/8932.120.8648

ANASURIA BLENDSHELL 04/9736.750.8410

AMNAEC-15/9236.810.8407

ANGOLA BLENDEC-48/8535.360.8480

ANTANEC-06/9034.170.8541

ARABIA EXTRA LIGEROARAMCO 11/7/9637.460.8375

ARABIA LIGERO2/38C/9833.190.8592

ARABIA MEDIO?????31.520.8680

ARABIA PESADO2/92C/9728.590.8839

ARABIA SUPER LIGEROARAMCO 4/9451.080.7750

ASHTART2/133C/9629.880.8768

AZERBAIJAN BLENDBP 9/09/199834.680.8515

AZERISAYBOLT 26/03/9725.840.8993

BACHAQUERO-13EC-12/7714.000.9725

BACHAQUERO-17LAGOVEN 2/9115.730.9611

BACHAQUERO-22LAGOVEN 5/8922.200.9206

BARRACUDA2/23/148/1076/0031.840.8663

BASRAHSTATOIL-9434.720.8513

BELAYIMEC-14/9228.220.8859

BELAYIM LAND2/07C/9621.340.9258

BOLIVIANOEC-06/9450.700.7766

BONNY LIGHT2/44C/9734.930.8502

BONNY MEDIO2/21C/9626.300.8967

BOQUERN2/105C/9738.490.8324

BOSCANEC-13/919.941.0004

BOURIEC-07/9126.370.8963

BRASS RIVEREC-08/9242.760.8120

BREGAEC-12/8740.410.8231

BRENTSTATOIL 9/9638.180.8339

BRUNEI LIGHT11/9440.430.8230

BUATTI FELSGS-7/9443.650.8079

CAADON SECOEC-01/9528.010.8871

CAO LIMONEC-30/8928.990.8817

CAPTAIN09/9319.000.9402

CASABLANCAEC-05/9332.580.8624

CHELEKENSAYBOLT 9736.690.8413

CONDENSADO ARGELINO2/78C/9664.370.7224

CONDENSADO BOLIVIANOCORE L. 12/13/9454.270.7617

CONDENSADO BREGA??????67.100.7125

CONDENSADO QATARTOTAL-14/08/9658.970.7429

CUSIANA31/08/199839.500.8275

CYRUSI.P.A.C. 05/6719.130.9394

DJENOELF 20/02/9726.950.8930

DOUGLASSGS/10/9443.060.8106

DRAUGENCHEVRON 1/9340.140.8244

DUBAIEC-12/9332.060.8651

DUCEC-09/9434.170.8541

DURWARD BLEND17/04/199635.620.8467

EAST ZEITH MIXEXXON39.080.8295

EBOME034.290.8535

EKOFISK2/34C/9838.490.8324

EL HAMRA BLENDEC-04/9240.680.8218

EMERALDNESTE 5/9323.620.9122

EOCENETEXACO 28/04/9719.300.9383

ESCALANTEEC-03/9223.530.9127

ESCRAVOSEC-02/9435.840.8456

ES SHARARA2/128C/9843.130.8103

ES SIDEREC-06/9235.960.8450

EZZAOUIAEC-10/9140.200.8241

FAO BLENDEC-18/9029.520.8788

FIFESGS 9536.070.8444

FLOTTA2/16C/9637.030.8396

FOINAVENBP-14/08/9425.290.9025

FORCADOS2/32C/9829.810.8772

FOROOZANEC-04/9531.220.8696

FORTIESEC-15/9339.190.8290

GALEOTATRI-TOBAGO26.570.8952

GALOTA MIXAMOCO 6/9833.710.8565

GEISUMEC-03/9119.320.9382

GRYPHONEC-18/9421.440.9252

GUAFITA BLENDINTEVEP 9429.810.8772

GULLFAKSEC-10/9329.630.8782

GULLFAKS_CSTATOIL 3/11/9435.620.8467

HAMADA16/07/9239.060.8296

HARDINGBP 6/9118.950.9405

HEIDRUNEC-06/9527.330.8909

HERMONDSTATOIL 12/9119.080.9397

HUDSONCORE LAB.38.800.8309

HYDRAEC-09/9239.970.8252

IMAAMNI-ABACAN43.080.8105

IRAN LIGEROEC-11/9333.730.8564

IRAN PESADOEC-17/9129.920.8766

ISTMUS2/77C/9733.190.8592

JABIRUBHP 3/8942.270.8143

KHAFJIA.O.C. 7828.590.8839

KHALDAEC-05/9242.910.8113

KIAMESONANGOL 09/9829.170.8807

KIRKUKF2/7C/9934.850.8506

KITINAAGIP 03/9838.740.8312

KOCH ALBERTACORE LAB JUL-9732.770.8614

KOLEELF 2/08/9732.840.8610

KUITOCHEVRON 10/9820.020.9339

KUWAITEC-09/9331.610.8675

LAGOMARMARAVEN 8/8832.080.8650

LAMINARIANATA 2/9558.100.7463

LANDES MIXEC-08/9033.130.8595

LAVAN BLENDNIOC-08/9334.350.8532

LENNOXCORE/04/9347.500.7905

LEONAINTEVEP-02/9423.990.9100

LIONTOTAL-09/9536.000.8448

LOKELEEC-43/8519.530.9369

LORETOCOM.AM.-01/9519.300.9383

MALONGOEC-12/9232.050.8652

MANDJIF2/46C/9929.090.8811

MARIB LIGHT2/70C/9749.260.7828

MARLIMPETROBRAS19.790.9353

MASILACANADIAN-9330.860.8715

MAYA2/23/155/0988/0021.440.9252

MEDANITOEC-03/9435.880.8454

MEREYEC-10/9415.560.9622

MESA2/89C/9729.660.8780

MESLA2/05C/9638.330.8332

MISKARCALEB B.-26/07/9549.280.7827

MOUDI2/20C/9636.330.8431

NC115SGS 9641.020.8202

NEMBA06/9538.490.8324

NILE BLENDSPC 17/9/9834.460.8526

NINIANEC-20/8938.350.8331

NJORDSTATOIL 23/3/8937.640.8366

N'KOSSAELF 6/09/9639.190.8290

N'KOSSA_97ELF 12/04/9746.530.7948

NORNESTATOIL 3-03/9332.790.8613

NORTH WEST SHELF COND.10/199559.590.7405

ODUDU BLEND2/104C/9727.130.8920

OLMECACORE LAB. 08/9240.620.8221

OMANEC-02/8335.620.8467

ORIENTE LIGEROUOP-5/9129.000.8816

OSEBERGELF-03/9535.900.8453

OSSO CONDENSADO2/23/155/0055/0047.340.7912

PALANCAEC-05/9438.980.8300

PENNINGTONF2/237C/9934.190.8540

PIERCERANGER O.-08/9637.030.8396

PILONLAGOVEN 3/9112.420.9832

PRINOSNAPC-9532.390.8634

QATAR MARINOEC-04/8236.490.8423

QUA IBOE2/127C/9736.070.8444

RABI LIGHTELF-03/9634.290.8535

RAINBOWCOMS. AMER. 7/9339.390.8280

RAS BUDRAMEC-15/9425.740.8999

RAS GHARIBEC-14/8121.700.9236

RATAWITEXACO-06/9524.200.9088

RESIDUO E-4EC-36/8819.080.9397

RESIDUO M100-15.330.9637

RHEMOURA2/12C/9631.990.8655

RODABALLO2/89C/9641.690.8170

ROSPO MAREEC-11/9113.610.9751

SAHARA BLEND2/31C/9843.560.8083

SANTA BRBARACORPOVEN 11/9535.800.8458

SANTA CRUZ SUR17/11/199444.800.8026

SARIR2/118C/9637.190.8388

SCHIEHALLIONSHELL 6/9525.460.9015

SHABWAHSHELL 03/9035.760.8460

SHARJAHAMOCO C.-5/12/9359.100.7424

SIBERIA LIGHT2/64C/9835.070.8495

SIRIPHILLIPS 66 12/9538.120.8342

SIRIAN LIGHTF2/234C/9936.090.8443

SIRTICA2/150C/9639.520.8274

SLEIPNEREC-02/9559.180.7421

SOUEDIEEC-17/9422.720.9175

SOUTH ARNESGS 9636.350.8430

SOUTH BLEND-29.200.8805

SOYO2/48C/9639.170.8291

STATFJORDSTATOIL 9/9638.310.8333

SUEZ BLENDEC-16/9129.850.8770

TACHING(DAQUING)EC-04/8632.250.8641

TAKULAEC-10/9232.500.8628

TAPIS BLENDEXXON-11/8845.570.7991

TAZERKAEC-03/9531.330.8690

TCHATAMBANOV-9744.100.8058

TEMPA ROSSAFINA 9616.500.9561

TENGIZ2/157C/9946.380.7955

THEVENARD BLENDCOED 6/9537.560.8370

TIA JUANA LIG.EC-22/8531.970.8656

TROLLSTATOIL 11/02/9728.370.8851

UKPOKITICONOCO 17/10/9741.820.8164

UPPER ZAKUM-33.090.8597

URAL LIGERO2/99C/9732.390.8634

URAL PESADO1/06/9231.110.8702

VASCONIA-25.370.9020

VIC BIHLEXXON 3/8521.590.9243

WIDURISAYBOLT 5/09/8933.320.8585

YOMBOAMOCO17.700.9484

ZAFIRO EXPORT BLENDF2/77C/9933.570.8572

ZAIRECHEVRON-8931.240.8695

ZARZAITINEEC-12/9442.250.8144

ZEITH BAYMARATHON(05-93)36.510.8422

ZEITH BLENDEC-32/8432.540.8626

ZUEITINAEC-24/8740.600.8222

EMISIONES GLOBALES DE CO2 RELACIONADAS CON LA ENERGA LAS EMISIONES GLOBALES AUMENTAN UN 57% EN EL ESCENARIO DE REFERENCIA, SE ESTABILIZAN EN EL ALTERNATIVO CMO ES?101520253035404550198019902000201020202030 Gt de CO2Escenario de referencia42 GtEscenario Alternativo27 GtPROSPECTIVA: EL CAMBIO CLIMTICO ES EL PROBLEMAFuente: AIE

ESCENARIO ALTERNATIVO: NO HAY UNA SOLUCIN NICA1015202530354045200520102015202020252030Gt de CO2CCS en la industriaCCS en generacin elctricaNuclearRenovablesCambio a gas de CT de carbnEficiencia energtica electricidadEficiencia energtica combustiblesEscenario de referenciaEscenario de estabilizacin27 GtIndustriaUsuariosFuente: AIE HOY HABLAMOS DE UNA DE LAS SOLUCIONES: LOS BIOCARBURANTES PARA EL TRANSPORTEESTABILIZACIN DE LAS EMISIONES DE CO2

LOS BIOCARBURANTES DE CERCA: EMISIONES DE GEI

DECIR QUE LOS BIOS NO EMITEN CO2 NO ES EXACTO...CICLO DE VIDAFuente: AOPEmisin de CO2Emisin de CO2Absorcin de CO2PRODUCCINUTILIZACINENERGA FSIL EN RIEGO, FERTILIZANTES,COSECHA

... TAMPOCO TODOS LOS BIOCARBURANTES SON IGUALES LA EMISIN SE MIDE A LO LARGO DE TODO EL CICLO DE VIDA. LA REDUCCIN DE EMISIONES SE PRODUCE EN LA FASE DE FABRICACIN. EN LA COMBUSTIN LA EMISIN DE CO2 ES PRCTICAMENTE IGUAL PARA BIOS Y FSILES.Fuente: Estudio WTW Mayo 2006, JRC, Concawe, Eucar

LOS BIOCARBURANTES DE CERCA: POSICIN DEL SECTOR PETROLERO

Fuente: CORESESPAA: DESEQUILIBRIO PRODUCCIN-DEMANDA

Grfico3

1.358

1.207

0.91

1.8

2.113

2.934

-7.483

-8.559

-9.85

-11.174

-13.217

-12.655

IMPORTACIONES NETAS GASLEO

EXPORTACIONES NETAS GASOLINA

SUPERAVIT

DEFICIT

Espaa

Millones de Tm

Hoja1

Hoja1

1.358

1.207

0.91

1.8

2.113

2.934

-7.483

-8.559

-9.85

-11.174

-13.217

-12.655

IMPORTACIONES NETAS GASOLEO

EXPORTACIONES NETAS GASOLINA

SUPERAVIT

DFICIT

Espaa

Millones de Tm/ao

Desequilibrio Produccin-Demanda Espaa

Hoja2

Hoja4

Hoja5

2001200220032004200520062001200220003200420052006

Espaa1.3581.2070.911.82.1132.934-7.483-8.559-9.85-11.174-13.217-12.655

Hoja5

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Espaa

Hoja3

GASOLEOGASOLINAS

2001-74831.358

2002-8.5591.207

2003-9.850.91

2004-11.1741.8

2005-13.2172.113

2006 E-12.22

Hoja3

-74831.358

-8.5591.207

-9.850.91

-11.1741.8

-13.2172.113

-12.22

GASOLEO

GASOLINAS

MBD000484F4.xls

Matriculaciones

12.887.2

16.683.4

22.177.9

25.3774.62

33.266.8

36.9363.07

41.558.5

47.452.6

50.449.6

53.146.9

51.748.3

57.342.7

Gasleo

Gasolina

Disel

Gasolina

% Gasleo sobre carburantes

5545

5644

5941

6139

6436

6634

6832

7030

72.0927.91

74.1825.82

76.623.5

77.6222.38

Diesel

Gasolinas

Gasleo

Gasolina

Hoja1

Matriculacin por tipo de carburantes

DiselGasolina

199112.887.2

199216.683.4

199322.177.9

199425.3774.62

199533.266.8

199636.9363.07

199741.558.5

199847.452.6

199950.449.6

200053.146.9

200151.748.3

200257.342.7

Porcentaje de Gasleo sobre total de carburantes

GasleoGasolina

199555.0045.00

199656.0044.00

199759.0041.00

199861.0039.00

199964.0036.00

200066.0034.00

200168.0032.00

200270.0030.00

200372.0927.91

200474.1825.82

200576.623.5

2006 E77.6222.38

MBD0004B8ED.xls

MBD0006E78E.xls

Grfico 23

0.49

1.148

1.506

1.347

-1.692

-4.158

-6.836

-9.155

Excedente

Dficit

1996 1998 2000 2002

EXPORTACIONES DE GASOLINAS

IMPORTACIONES DE DESTILADOS MEDIOS

Espaa

1996 1998 2000 2002

Millones Tm/ao

Hoja1

19961998200020021996199820002002

Espaa0.491.1481.5061.347-1.692-4.158-6.836-9.155

34823608

18632145

1619146315728

UE-1417.116.41515.5-5-5.5-14

Hoja2

Hoja3

MBD0004A4DD.xls

MBD00047BF8.xls

Matriculaciones

12.887.2

16.683.4

22.177.9

25.474.6

33.266.8

36.963.1

41.558.5

47.452.6

50.449.6

53.146.9

51.848.2

57.342.7

60.439.6

65.134.9

67.832.2

7030

Diesel

Gasolinas

Disel

Gasolina

% Gasleo sobre carburantes

5545

5644

5941

6139

6436

6634

6832

7030

Gasleo

Gasleo

Gasolina

Gasleo

Gasolina

Hoja1

Matriculacin por tipo de carburantes

DiselGasolina

199112.887.2

199216.683.4

199322.177.9

199425.474.6

199533.266.8

199636.963.1

199741.558.5

199847.452.6

199950.449.6

200053.146.9

200151.848.2

200257.342.7

200360.439.6

200465.134.9

200567.832.2

2006 E7030

Porcentaje de Gasleo sobre total de carburantes

GasleoGasolina

199555.0045.00

199656.0044.00

199759.0041.00

199861.0039.00

199964.0036.00

200066.0034.00

200168.0032.00

200270.0030.00

ANTECEDENTES DE BIOCARBURANTES EN ESPAA: 1) ETBE ETBE, COMPONENTE DE LA GASOLINA.

BIOETANOL + ISOBUTILENO = (BIO) ETBE

VENTAJAS: COMPATIBLE CON LA GASOLINA, HASTA UN 15% EN LA ESPECIFICACIN (EN 228)SIN PROBLEMAS DE ALMACENAMIENTO Y DISTRIBUCINSIN EFECTOS NEGATIVOS PARA SALUD, VEHCULOS, MEDIOAMBIENTE

LIMITACIONES:YA NO HAY MS ISOBUTILENO EN LAS REFINERAS

ANTECEDENTES DE BIOCARBURANTES EN ESPAA: 1bis) BIOETANOL? INDUSTRIA ESPAOLA PIONERA EN EUROPA, LDERES EN LA INCORPORACIN DE BIOETANOL: 194 KT EN 2006, ... EN FORMA DE ETBE.

NO ADICIN DIRECTA.

VENTAJAS: COMPATIBLE CON LA GASOLINA, HASTA UN 5% EN LA ESPECIFICACIN (EN 228)EXPERIENCIA POSITIVA EN PASES CON SISTEMAS LOGSTICOS AD-HOC: BRASIL ...SIN EFECTOS NEGATIVOS PARA SALUD, VEHCULOS ADAPTADOS, (MEDIOAMBIENTE)

LIMITACIONES:EXCEDENTES DE GASOLINA EN ESPAA: >2 Mt/aMISCIBLE CON AGUA: PROBLEMAS DE ALMACENAMIENTO Y DISTRIBUCINIMPACTO EN LA VOLATILIDAD DE LA GASOLINA: EMISIONES DE COV

FAME (CIDOS GRASOS DE LOS STERES METLICOS)MATERIAS PRIMAS: ACEITES VEGETALES VRGENES O USADOS.ACEITES USADOS: PROBLEMAS DE CALIDAD DEL PRODUCTO FINAL.APUESTA DE LOS OPERADORES POR LOS ACEITES VEGETALES VRGENES.LA FISCALIDAD EN ESPAA, OBSTCULO PARA SU DESARROLLO.

VENTAJAS: EXISTE UNA ESPECIFICACIN PARA FAME (EN 14214).LA ESPECIFICACIN DE GASLEO A (EN 590) ADMITE HASTA EL 5 %. BUEN NMERO DE CETANO. BUENA LUBRICIDAD. SIN AZUFRE. FACILIDAD DE MEZCLA EN REFINERA CON LOS CARBURANTES FSILES.

INCONVENIENTES:ESTABILIDAD. TOLERANCIA AL AGUA. PROPIEDADES EN FRO.COMPATIBILIDAD CON ADITIVOS Y CON GO FSIL BASE.

ANTECEDENTES DE BIOCARBURANTES EN ESPAA: 2) FAME

COMENTARIOS GENERALESCLASIFICACIN: SE NECESITAN UNAS 20 NORMAS NUEVAS POR CADA PRODUCTO:DESARROLLAR LOS MTODOS DE ANLISISFABRICACIN: SE NECESITA FLEXIBILIDAD PARA SU PRODUCCIN CON DIFERENTES MATERIAS PRIMAS COMPITEN CON PRODUCTOS DE PRIMERA NECESIDAD-SE CUESTIONA SU SOSTENIBILIDADMANEJO: SEGURIDAD, ALMACENAMIENTO:ELECCIN DE MATERIALESMEZCLA CON LOS PRODUCTOS FSILESCONSUMO:ELIMINAR LAS INCOMPATIBILIDADES: LUBRICANTES, ADITIVOSADAPTAR LOS VEHCULOS

LOS BIOCARBURANTES SON PRODUCTOS NUEVOS PARA LOS QUE HAY QUE ADAPTAR LA TECNOLOGA EXISTENTE:LA CALIDAD DEBE SER LA MISMA QUE LA DE LOS CARBURANTES FSILES: PERFECTA SIEMPRE.

POSICIN DE LAS COMPAAS PETROLERAS CONSTRUCCIN DE SIETE PLANTAS DE BIODIESEL CON UNA CAPACIDAD DE 1,7 MILLONES DE TONELADAS/AO.

LA INDUSTRIA ESPAOLA INTENTA MAXIMIZAR EN LO POSIBLE LA VA DEL ETBE.

SE ESTN INVESTIGANDO NUEVAS FORMAS DE INCORPORAR BIOETANOL AL GASLEO.LA INDUSTRIA EST COMPROMETIDA CON LOS BIOCARBURANTES:

PERSPECTIVAS PARA EL FUTURO DE LOS BIOCARBURANTES

VISTA PANORMICA DE LOS COMBUSTIBLES COMBUSTIBLES ALTERNATIVOSCOMBUSTIBLES SINTTICOSACEITESGAS ETANOLG-T-LB-T-LC-T-LCOLZASOJAFRITURAOTROSGNCGLPBIOGASH2REMOLACHACEREALCAACELULOSAGASNATURALCARBNMADERACULTIVOSENERGTICOSFuente: Volkswagen

CONSUMO DE ENERGA: PROSPECTIVA

ENERGA PRIMARIA GLOBALPROYECCIN SIGLO XXI

Fuente: Peter R. Odell, Why carbon fuels will dominate the 21st centurys global energy economy

%2010204020702100CARBN24,022,719,315,6PETRLEO36,025,019,713,0GAS NATURAL20,029,535,029,6RENOVABLE20,022,726,041,8TOTAL100,0100,0100,0100,0

Grfico1

24

36

21

6

2

11

2003

Energa primaria. Cuota % por fuente 2003

Grfico2

23

34

24

5

2

12

2030

Energa primaria. Cuota % por fuente 2030

Hoja1

20032030

Carbn2423

Petrleo3634

Gas natural2124

Nuclear65

Hidroelctrica22

Bio y otras renovables1112

100100

2030

Carbn23

Petrleo34

Gas natural24

Nuclear5

Hidroelctrica2

Bio y otras renovables12

100

PRODUCCIN DE CRUDO, 2005

Reservas GN BP

Giga m3 (109 m3)at end 1985at end 1995at end 2004at end 2005

Total North America10.378.477.467.46

Total S. & Cent. America3.325.967.077.02

Total Europe & Eurasia44.4563.1663.7364.01

Total Middle East27.6745.3772.0972.13

Total Africa6.169.9314.3014.39

Total Asia Pacific7.5710.5414.3514.84

TOTAL WORLD99.54143.42179.00179.84

aos (base 2005)

Giga m3 (109 m3)1985199520042005Relacin R/P

Norte Amrica10.378.477.467.469.9

Sur y Centro Amrica3.325.967.077.0251.8

Europa y Eurasia44.4563.1663.7364.0160.3

Oriente Medio27.6745.3772.0972.13> 100

frica6.169.9314.3014.3988.3

Asia Pacfico7.5710.5414.3514.8441.2

TOTAL MUNDIAL99.54143.42179.00179.8465.10

Fuente: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2006

Natural Gas: Proved reserves

TrillionTrillionTrillionTrillionTrillion

cubiccubiccubiccubiccubicShareR/P

metresmetresmetresfeetmetresof totalratio

USA5.414.625.45192.55.453.0%10.4

Canada2.781.931.5956.01.590.9%8.6

Mexico2.171.920.4214.50.410.2%10.4

Total North America10.378.477.46263.37.464.1%9.9

Argentina0.680.620.5517.80.500.3%11.1

Bolivia0.130.130.7626.10.740.4%71.1

Brazil0.090.150.3310.90.310.2%27.3

Colombia0.110.220.124.00.110.1%16.7

Peru+0.200.3311.50.330.2%*

Trinidad & Tobago0.320.350.5319.20.550.3%18.8

Venezuela1.734.064.29152.34.322.4%*

Other S. & Cent. America0.240.230.175.90.170.1%87.7

Total S. & Cent. America3.325.967.07247.87.023.9%51.8

Azerbaijann/an/a1.3748.41.370.8%*

Denmark0.090.120.082.40.07w6.5

Germany0.300.220.206.60.190.1%11.8

Italy0.260.300.185.90.170.1%14.0

Kazakhstann/an/a3.00105.93.001.7%*

Netherlands1.861.821.4549.61.410.8%22.3

Norway0.571.812.3984.92.411.3%28.3

Poland0.100.150.113.80.110.1%25.3

Romania0.270.410.3022.20.630.3%48.6

Russian Federationn/an/a47.801688.047.8226.6%80.0

Turkmenistann/an/a2.90102.42.901.6%49.3

Ukrainen/an/a1.1139.01.110.6%58.7

United Kingdom0.650.700.5318.70.530.3%6.0

Uzbekistann/an/a1.8665.31.851.0%33.2

Other Europe & Eurasia40.3757.640.4616.20.460.3%47.0

Total Europe & Eurasia44.4563.1663.732259.464.0135.6%60.3

Bahrain0.210.150.093.20.090.1%9.1

Iran13.9919.3526.74943.926.7414.9%*

Iraq0.823.363.17111.93.171.8%*

Kuwait1.041.491.5755.51.570.9%*

Oman0.220.451.0035.11.000.6%56.9

Qatar4.448.5025.78910.125.7814.3%*

Saudi Arabia3.695.546.83243.66.903.8%99.3

Syria0.120.240.3110.90.310.2%57.3

United Arab Emirates3.155.866.06213.06.043.4%*

Yemen-0.430.4816.90.480.3%*

Other Middle East++0.051.80.05w26.7

Total Middle East27.6745.3772.092546.072.1340.1%*

Algeria3.353.694.55161.74.582.5%52.2

Egypt0.260.651.8766.71.891.1%54.4

Libya0.631.311.4952.61.490.8%*

Nigeria1.343.475.23184.65.232.9%*

Other Africa0.590.811.1742.21.200.7%*

Total Africa6.169.9314.30508.114.398.0%88.3

Australia0.771.282.5289.02.521.4%67.9

Bangladesh0.350.270.4415.40.440.2%30.7

Brunei0.240.400.3412.00.340.2%28.3

China0.871.672.2083.02.351.3%47.0

India0.480.680.9238.91.100.6%36.2

Indonesia1.981.952.7797.42.761.5%36.3

Malaysia1.492.272.4687.52.481.4%41.4

Myanmar0.270.270.5017.70.500.3%38.5

Pakistan0.620.600.8034.00.960.5%32.2

Papua New Guinea0.020.430.4315.10.430.2%*

Thailand0.220.180.3512.50.350.2%16.5

Vietnam0.000.150.248.30.240.1%45.6

Other Asia Pacific0.250.410.3813.10.370.2%34.7

Total Asia Pacific7.5710.5414.35523.714.848.3%41.2

TOTAL WORLD99.54143.42179.006,348.1179.83100.0%65.1

Of which: European Union 253.493.442.6590.82.571.4%12.9

OECD15.3815.0915.02527.714.958.3%13.8

Former Soviet Union40.0057.3758.322058.858.3232.4%76.7

* More than 100 years

+ Less than 0.05

w Less than 0.05%

n/a not available

Notes: Proved reserves of natural gas - Generally taken to be those quantities that geological and engineering information

indicates with reasonable certainty can be recovered in the future from known reservoirs under existing

economic and operating conditions.

Reserves/Production (R/P) ratio - If the reserves remaining at the end of any year are divided by the

production in that year, the result is the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if production were to continue at that level.

Source of data: The estimates in this table have been compiled using a combination of primary official sources and third party data from Cedigaz,

and the OPEC Secretariat.

The reserves figures shown do not necessarily meet the definitions, guidelines and practices used for determining proved reserves at the company level,

for instance those published by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission or recommended for the purposes of UK SORP,

nor do they necessarily represent BP's view of proved reserves by country

Reservas petrleo BP

Oil: Proved reservesat end 1985at end 1995at end 2004at end 2005

ThousandThousandThousandThousandThousandThousandThousandThousand

millionmillionmillionmillionmillionmillionmillionmillionShareR/P

barrelstonnesbarrelstonnesbarrelstonnestonnesbarrelsof totalratio

USA36.44.529.83.729.33.63.629.32.4%11.8

Canada9.61.310.51.516.52.32.316.51.4%14.8

Mexico55.67.648.86.714.82.01.913.71.1%10.0

Total North America101.513.589.011.860.68.07.859.55.0%11.9

Total S. & Cent. America62.99.083.812.0103.014.714.8103.58.6%40.7

Total Europe & Eurasia78.610.781.511.1138.719.019.2140.511.7%22.0

Total Middle East431.358.7661.590.1738.2100.6101.2742.761.9%81.0

Total Africa57.07.672.09.6113.815.115.2114.39.5%31.8

Total Asia Pacific39.15.339.25.339.85.45.440.23.4%13.8

TOTAL WORLD770.41027.01194.1163.61200.7100.0%40.6

Of which OECD118.6111.381.810.680.66.7%11.2

OPEC535.8785.1897.4123.2902.475.2%73.1

Non-OPEC 172.0179.8175.823.5175.414.6%13.6

Former Soviet Union62.762.1120.916.8122.910.2%28.4

770.4104.81027.0139.91194.1162.7163.61200.71.0

Giga toneladas (109)1985199520042005Relacin R/P

aos (base 2005)

Norte Amrica13.4611.847.967.8111.9

Sur y Centro Amrica8.9811.9714.7114.7840.7

Europa y Eurasia10.7411.1418.9519.2122.0

Oriente Medio58.7590.10100.56101.1781.0

frica7.599.5715.1315.2031.8

Asia Pacfico5.255.275.355.4013.8

TOTAL MUNDIAL104.77139.89162.66163.5740.6

Fuente: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2006

Grfico3

2.5421

34.52.52.5

3.55.52.53.5

464.53

55.56.55

5.568.15

5.66.49.35.4

5.85.910.57.8

65.510.612.5

6511.214.8

6511.416.1

Carbn

Petrleo

Gas Natural

E. Alternativas

Gtep

Grfico4

0.26315789470.42105263160.21052631580.1052631579

0.240.360.20.2

0.23333333330.36666666670.16666666670.2333333333

0.22857142860.34285714290.25714285710.1714285714

0.22727272730.250.29545454550.2272727273

0.22357723580.2439024390.32926829270.2032520325

0.20973782770.23970037450.34831460670.202247191

0.19333333330.19666666670.350.26

0.17341040460.15895953760.30635838150.3612716763

0.16216216220.13513513510.30270270270.4

0.15584415580.12987012990.29610389610.4181818182

Carbn

Petrleo

Gas Natural

E. Alternativas

PARTICIPACIN DE LAS DISTINTAS FUENTES EN EL BALANCE ENERGTICO DEL SIGLO XXI

Fuentes

Gtep20002010202020302040205020602070208020902100

Carbn2.53.03.54.05.05.55.65.86.06.06.0

Petrleo4.04.55.56.05.56.06.45.95.55.05.0

Gas Natural2.02.52.54.56.58.19.310.510.611.211.4

E. Alternativas1.02.53.53.05.05.05.47.812.514.816.1

9.512.515.017.522.024.626.730.034.637.038.5

%20002010202020302040205020602070208020902100

Carbn26.3%24.0%23.3%22.9%22.7%22.4%21.0%19.3%17.3%16.2%15.6%

Petrleo42.1%36.0%36.7%34.3%25.0%24.4%24.0%19.7%15.9%13.5%13.0%

Gas Natural21.1%20.0%16.7%25.7%29.5%32.9%34.8%35.0%30.6%30.3%29.6%

E. Alternativas10.5%20.0%23.3%17.1%22.7%20.3%20.2%26.0%36.1%40.0%41.8%

100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%

MBD00083D6F.xls

RESUMEN Y CONCLUSIONES

RESUMEN Y CONCLUSIONESLOS BIOCARBURANTES SON UNA NECESIDADPARA LA SOCIEDADPARA LAS COMPAAS PETROLERAS

LOS BIOCARBURANTES SON PARTE DE LA SOLUCIN AL CAMBIO CLIMTICOREDUCEN EMISIONES EN SU PRODUCCINHAY OTROS FACTORES COMPLEMENTARIOS: LOS MOTORES

LOS BIOCARBURANTES PLANTEAN HOY PROBLEMASSOSTENIBILIDADCOMPETENCIA CON LA ALIMENTACINPRECIOCALIDAD

LOS BIOCARBURANTES FORMAN PARTE DEL PORVENIR DE LAS PETROLERAS

www.aop.es