COMPANY UPDATE Thailand BTS Group Holdings · COMPANY UPDATE Thailand BTS Group Holdings ... bts

June 4, 2020

*The Company may be issuer of Derivative Warrants on these securities.

http://research.kgi.com; Bloomberg: KGIT <GO> Please see back page for disclaimer

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Outperform‧Maintained

Price as of 2 Jun 2020 11.90

12M target price (Bt/shr) 13.50

Unchanged/Revised up (down)(%) Unchanged

Upside/downside (%) 13.4

Key messages

กาไรสทธของ BTS ใน 4Q63 (มกราคม-มนาคม 2563) อยท 3.53 พนลานบาท (+462.9% YoY, +43.6% QoQ) แตหากไมรวมกาไรพเศษ 3.22 พนลานบาทจากการขาย Bayswater และอน ๆ กาไรปกตของ BTS ใน 4Q63 จะอยท 306 ลานบาท (-73.6% YoY, -77.2% QoQ) เรายงคงคาดวาผลประกอบการของ BTS จะถกกระทบอยางหนกจาก COVID-19 ใน 1Q64 อยางไรกตาม เรายงคงประมาณการกาไรจากธรกจหลกเอาไวเทาเดมเพราะเราไดรวมผลกระทบของ COVID-19 เขาไวในประมาณการของเราเรยบรอยแลว เรายงคงคาแนะนาซอ และใหราคาเปาหมายป FY64 ท 13.50 บาท

Trading data

Mkt cap (Btbn/US$mn) 157/4,922

Outstanding shares (mn) 13,154

Foreign ownership (mn) 3,504

3M avg. daily trading (mn) 62

52-week trading range (Bt) 8.3-14.2

Performance (%) 3M 6M 12M

Absolute 3.5 (15.0) (2.6)

Relative 3.8 (3.2) 22.3

Quarterly EPS Bt Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42018 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.202019 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.052020 0.08 0.10 0.19 0.27

Share price chart

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Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20

Share Price Price performance relative to SET

Source: SET

ผลการดาเนนงานแผวลงในระยะสน Event ผลประกอบการ 4Q63 (มกราคม-มนาคม 2563) lmpact

ผลประกอบการจากธรกจหลกใน 4Q63 ลดลงทง YoY และ QoQ กาไรสทธของ BTS ใน 4Q63 (มกราคม-มนาคม 2563) อยท 3.53 พนลานบาท (+462.9% YoY, +43.6% QoQ) แตหากไมรวมกาไรพเศษ 3.22 พนลานบาทจากการขาย Bayswater และอน ๆ กาไรปกตของ BTSใน 4Q63 จะอยท 306 ลานบาท (-73.6% YoY, -77.2% QoQ) สาหรบในป FY63 กาไรสทธอยท 8.16พนลานบาท (+184.1% YoY) ในขณะทกาไรปกตอยท 4.78 พนลานบาท (+47.0% YoY) โดยโครงสรางรายไดของ BTS แบงเปน รถไฟฟา 80% สอ 15% อสงหารมทรพย 1% และการบรการ 4% ทงน ประเดนสาคญจากผลการดาเนนงานของธรกจหลกในป FY63 ไดแก i) รายไดจากรถไฟฟาลดลง 22.4% YoY เนองจากมยอดรบรรายไดจากงานกอสรางโครงการ

รถไฟฟาสายสชมพและเหลองลดลง ทงน รฟม. ไดขยายระยะเวลากอสรางรถไฟฟาสายสชมพออกไปอก 12 เดอน และสายสเหลองอก 9 เดอน เนองจากความลาชาในการสงมอบพนทกอสราง

ii) รายไดจากธรกจสอ อสงหารมทรพย และบรการ เพมขน 10.2% 5.8% และ 57.0% YoYตามลาดบ ทงน ปทผานมาถอเปนอกหนงปทโดดเดนของ VGI โดยทงรายไดและกาไรสทธทาสถตสงสดใหมทงค นอกจากน รายไดจากธรกจบรการยงคงเตบโตอยางแขงแกรงเพราะรายไดจากการกอสรางโครงการ HHT (จาก 694 ลานบาท เปน 1.6 พนลานบาท)

iii) อตรากาไรขนตนของ BTS เพมขนเปน 16.8% ในป FY63 จาก 11.7% ใน FY62 จากอตรากาไรทเพมขนของโครงการรถไฟฟาสายสชมพและเหลอง

iv) รบรกาไรพเศษ (หลงหกภาษ) 2.98 พนลานบาทใน 4Q63 จากการขายทดน (ผาน 50% ของจานวนหนทงหมด และหนสนทางการเงนจากการลงทนใน Bayswater)

v) สดสวนการถอหน MACO ลดลงจาก 33.17% เหลอ 26.55% ทาใหสถานะของ MACO เปลยนจากบรษทยอยมาเปนบรษทรวม ดงนน VGI จงแยกผลการดาเนนงานของ MACO ออกจากงบรวมของบรษทตงแต 4Q63 เปนตนมา ซงทาใหเกดกาไรพเศษจากการทาธรกรรมประมาณ 750ลานบาท

คงประมาณการกาไรเอาไวเทาเดม โดยคาดผลการดาเนนงานจะแยสดใน 1Q64 (เมษายน-มถนายน) เรายงคงคาดวาผลประกอบการของ BTS จะถกกระทบอยางหนกจากรายไดทลดลงตามจานวนผโดยสาร และธรกจสอทลดลงเพราะมาตรการคมโรคระบาดของทางการ อยางไรกตาม เราไดรวมผลกระทบของCOVID-19 เขาไวในประมาณการของเราเรยบรอยแลว ดงนน เราจงยงคงประมาณการกาไรจากธรกจหลกเอาไวเทาเดม Valuation & Action เรายงคงคาแนะนาซอ และใหราคาเปาหมายป FY64 ท 13.50 บาท Risks เศรษฐกจฟนตวชาเกนคาด และปญหาความขดแยงทางการเมอง

Key financials and valuations

Mar-17/18A Mar-18/19A Mar-19/20A Mar-20/21F Mar-21/22FRevenue (Bt mn) 12,608 44,749 35,557 36,947 38,685Gross profit (Bt mn) 4,258 5,251 5,991 7,280 8,260EBIT (Bt mn) 3,755 5,490 8,026 8,366 10,060Normalized profit (Bt mn) 1,369 3,248 4,776 4,505 5,738Net profit (Bt mn) 4,416 2,873 8,162 4,505 5,738EPS (Bt) 0.37 0.24 0.62 0.34 0.44DPS (Bt) 0.19 0.42 0.48 0.34 0.44EPS growth (%) 120.3 (34.4) 155.8 (44.8) 27.4 P/E (x) 32.2 49.1 19.2 34.7 27.3P/B (x) 3.5 3.6 2.9 2.8 2.8EV/EBITDA (x) 38.1 31.9 24.8 22.1 18.5 Net Debt to Equity (x) 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1Dividend Yield (%) 1.6 3.5 4.0 2.9 3.7Return on Avg. Equity (%) 9.5 5.5 12.1 6.6 8.3

Source: Company data, KGI Research

COMPANY UPDATE Thailand

BTS Group Holdings (BTS.BK/BTS TB)*

Parin Kitchatornpitak 66.2658.8888 Ext. 8858 [email protected]

Thailand BTS Group Holdings

June 4, 2020 *The Company may be issuer of Derivative Warrants on these securities.


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Figure 1: BTS’s 4Q20 earnings performance

Bt mn 4Q20 4Q19 YoY (%) 3Q20 QoQ (%) FY20 FY19 YoY (%)Sales 5,833 7,956 (26.7) 10,339 (43.6) 35,557 44,749 (20.5)

COGS (5,235) (7,057) (25.8) (8,263) (36.6) (29,566) (39,498) (25.1)

Gross profit 598 899 (33.5) 2,076 (71.2) 5,991 5,251 14.1

SG&A (697) (312) 123.5 (877) (20.5) (3,160) (2,535) 24.7

Equity income (88) 91 (195.8) 1,500 (105.8) 659 220 199.1

EBITDA 1,480 2,067 (28.4) 3,546 (58.3) 8,998 6,283 43.2

EBIT 508 1,274 (60.1) 3,546 (85.7) 8,026 5,490 46.2

Interest expense (549) (475) 15.4 (550) (0.3) (2,245) (1,642) 36.7

Income tax (665) (161) 313.7 (345) 92.8 (1,478) (773) 91.0

Minority interest 1,038 696 49.2 (191) (643.3) (375) (273) 37.2

Normalized profit 306 1,334 (77.1) 1,342 (77.2) 4,776 3,248 47.0

Extra items 3,225 (706) N.A. 1,118 188.5 3,386 (375) N.A.

Net profit 3,531 627 462.9 2,460 43.6 8,162 2,873 184.1

EPS (Bt) 0.27 0.05 406.9 0.19 43.6 0.62 0.24 155.8

Percent 4Q20 4Q19 YoY (ppts) 3Q20 QoQ (ppts) FY20 FY19 QoQ (ppts)Gross margin 10.3 11.3 (1.0) 20.1 (9.8) 16.8 11.7 5.1 EBITDA margin 25.4 26.0 (0.6) 34.3 (8.9) 25.3 14.0 11.3 EBIT margin 8.7 16.0 (7.3) 34.3 (25.6) 22.6 12.3 10.3 SG&A/Sales 12.0 3.9 8.0 8.5 3.5 8.9 5.7 3.2 Net margin 60.5 7.9 52.6 23.8 36.7 23.0 6.4 16.5

4Q20 4Q19 3Q20Ridership (mn trips) 50.4 61.6 63.0 Growth YoY (%) (18.2) 1.3 2.2 Growth QoQ (%) (20.0) 0.6 (1.5) Average fare (Bt/trip) 29.0 29.1 29.3 Growth YoY (%) (0.3) 1.5 0.7 Growth QoQ (%) (1.0) 1.0 1.7

Revenue structure (Bt mn) Mass Transit 4,667 6,842 8,064 Media 875 875 1,758 Property 58 80 103 Services 233 159 414 Revenue structure (%) Mass Transit 80.0 86.0 78.0 Media 15.0 11.0 17.0 Property 1.0 1.0 1.0 Services 4.0 2.0 4.0


Figure 2: Estimated ridership revenue breakdown - Normal situation

Normal situation % Trip (mn) Average fare (Bt/trip) Revenue per day (Bt mn) Revenue per month (Bt mn)BTS - Ridership per day 100 0.7 29.0 20.3 609.0 i) Working people and others 70 0.5 29.0 14.2 426.3 ii) Student 15 0.1 29.0 3.0 91.4 iii) Tourist 15 0.1 29.0 3.0 91.4

Source: KGI Research

Figure 3: Estimated ridership revenue breakdown - COVID-19 impact

COVID-19 impact % Assumption Trip (mn) Average fare (Bt/trip) Revenue per day (Bt mn) NoteBTS - Ridership per day 100 0.4 29.0 11.6 42.9% decline in ridership revenue i) Working people and others* 70 20% drop 0.4 29.0 11.6 18.3% decline in ridership revenue ii) Student 15 No student 0.0 29.0 0.0 No revenue from student segment iii) Tourist 15 No tourist 0.0 29.0 0.0 No revenue from tourist segment*potential drop in working people and others should be supported by more people working at home, less general passengers





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Figure 4: Estimated potential revenue loss from the previous estimate

Revenue per month (Bt mn): Normal situation (Bt mn) Revenue per month (Bt mn): COVID-19 impact (Bt mn) Difference (Bt mn) Chg. (%)BTS - Ridership per day 609.0 348.0 (261.0) (42.9) i) Working people 426.3 348.0 (78.3) (18.4) ii) Student 91.4 0.0 (91.4) (100.0) iii) Tourist 91.4 0.0 (91.4) (100.0)


Figure 5: Net impact from COVID-19 outbreak on FY21F

Potential impact to BTS's FY20/21FEstimated revenue decline per year (Bt mn) 3,302 i) Working people 626 ii) Student 1,096 iii) Tourist 1,096 iii) Media 483

Estimated revenue loss in FY20/21F (Bt mn): COVID-19 3,302 Estimated revenue in FY20/21F (Bt mn): Normal situation 40,250 Revenue loss (%) 8.2 Impact to net profit (%) 19.3


Figure 6: Revenue structure in FY20

Percent

Mass transit

Property, 1.0

Media80.0

15.0

Services, 4.0





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Figure 7: Summary of project status during 2017-2019


Figure 8: Core network fare adjustment


Figure 9: BTS’s 5-year target for network expansion





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Figure 10: Progress on BTS secured lines


Figure 11: Sum-of-parts valuation

Business segment Valuation method Value to BTS (Bt)Initial Green Line DCF (WACC 7%) 2.62Green Line extensions DCF (WACC 7%) 2.27Pink and Yellow Lines DCF (WACC 7%) 0.60BTSGIF DCF (33.33% stake) 2.56Media DCF (73.7% stake) 1.84Property 1x BV 2.16Intercity Motorway NPV 0.80Net cash BTS' financial statement 0.65

Target price 13.50





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Figure 12: Company profile Figure 13: Group's revenue breakdown in FY19

BTS Group Holdings (BTS) is a leading provider of passenger services inThailand. The company’s primary focuses is the mass transit businessand operates via its majority-owned subsidiary, Bangkok Mass TransitSystem Plc. (BTSC). BTSC is the exclusive concessionaire and operator ofthe BTS SkyTrain Core Network as well as the exclusive operator ofcertain extensions to the Core Network and the Bus Rapid Transitsystem (BRT). In April 2013, BTSC sold its rights to future net fareboxrevenues under its concession agreement with the BangkokMetropolitan Administration to BTS Rail Mass Transit GrowthInfrastructure Fund (BTSGIF).

Percent

Mass Transit

Media

Services, 2.3

86.2

Property, 0.8

10.7

Source: Company data Source: Company data, KGI Research

Figure 14: Group's revenue breakdown in FY20 Figure 15: Mass transit's revenue breakdown in FY19

Percent Percent

Mass transit

Property, 1.0

Media80.0

15.0

Services, 4.0

Construction of Pink and Yellow

lines

26.0

74.0

Others

Source: Company data, KGI Research Source: Company data, KGI Research

Figure16: Media’s revenue breakdown in FY19 Figure 17: Property’s revenue breakdown in FY19

Percent Percent

Transit

OutdoorOffice & Other

45.9

21.0

Digital services

8.1

25.0

Commercial & Others Residential96.0 4.0


Figure 18: Historical ridership Figure 19: Historical average fare

Mn trips Bt

200.0

205.0

210.0

215.0

220.0

225.0

230.0

235.0

240.0

245.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

25.0

25.5

26.0

26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

29.0

29.5

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020





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Quarterly Income Statement Jun-16A Sep-16A Dec-16A Mar-17A Jun-17A Sep-17A Dec-17A Mar-18A Jun-18A Sep-18A Dec-18A Mar-19A Jun-19A Sep-19A Dec-19A Mar-20A

Income Statement (Bt mn) Revenue 1,365 1,608 1,717 2,378 2,769 2,555 4,524 2,760 2,733 15,461 18,597 7,956 8,549 10,836 10,339 5,833 Cost of Goods Sold (654) (803) (968) (1,392) (1,782) (1,219) (3,300) (2,048) (1,591) (14,049) (16,801) (7,057) (6,980) (9,088) (8,263) (5,235) Gross Profit 710 805 750 986 987 1,336 1,224 712 1,142 1,412 1,797 899 1,569 1,748 2,076 598 Operating Expenses (442) (509) (527) (389) (453) (541) (566) (703) (815) (746) (662) (312) (844) (742) (877) (697) Other incomes 93 48 122 8 67 23 52 3 40 25 53 16 58 307 60 96 Operating Profit 625 634 708 1,081 1,008 1,022 1,143 582 921 1,281 2,013 1,274 1,820 2,153 3,546 508 Non-Operating Income 164 181 192 2,067 309 312 346 467 442 481 586 580 662 556 787 599 Interest Income 164 181 192 2,067 309 312 346 467 442 481 586 580 662 556 787 599 Other Non-op Income - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Non-Operating Expenses (88) (90) (192) (274) (294) (318) (313) (311) (315) (398) (454) (475) (562) (584) (550) (549) Interest Expense (88) (90) (192) (274) (294) (318) (313) (311) (315) (398) (454) (475) (562) (584) (550) (549) Other Non-op Expenses - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Net Investment Income/(Loss) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Pre-tax Profit 536 545 516 807 714 704 829 271 606 883 1,560 799 1,258 1,568 2,995 (40) Current taxation (150) (133) (144) (219) (168) (165) (213) (229) (111) (254) (247) (161) (207) (260) (345) (665) Minorities (80) (76) (20) (56) (39) (89) (85) (161) (108) (165) (249) 696 (157) (218) (191) 1,038 Extraordinary items 241 213 116 (93) 31 203 357 2,456 - 206 125 (706) - 188 1,118 3,225 Net Profit 548 548 468 439 537 653 889 2,337 387 670 1,189 627 894 1,278 2,460 3,531 EPS (Bt) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 Margins (%) Gross profit margin 52.1 50.1 43.7 41.5 35.6 52.3 27.1 25.8 41.8 9.1 9.7 11.3 18.4 16.1 20.1 10.3 Operating margin 45.8 39.4 41.3 45.5 36.4 40.0 25.3 21.1 33.7 8.3 10.8 16.0 21.3 19.9 34.3 8.7 Net profit margin 40.2 34.1 27.3 18.5 19.4 25.6 19.6 84.7 14.1 4.3 6.4 7.9 10.5 11.8 23.8 60.5 Growth (%) Revenue growth (0.8) 8.5 27.6 76.8 102.9 58.8 163.5 16.0 (1.3) 505.2 311.1 188.3 212.7 (29.9) (44.4) (26.7) Operating growth (9.9) 13.7 5.2 671.9 61.4 61.2 61.3 (46.2) (8.6) 25.3 76.2 118.8 97.5 68.0 76.1 (60.1) Net profit growth (81.8) 15.7 (22.9) 1,107.0 (2.0) 19.1 89.8 432.1 (28.0) 2.7 33.8 (73.2) 131.2 90.6 106.9 462.9





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Balance Sheet

As of 31 Mar (Bt mn) 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022FTotal Assets 106,258 144,398 173,100 181,802 186,289Current Assets 21,667 19,653 22,398 28,258 29,934 Cash & ST Investments 17,796 13,683 6,607 11,443 12,018 Inventories 646 625 602 608 614 Accounts Receivable 1,759 3,740 9,339 9,806 10,296 Others 1,465 1,605 5,851 6,402 7,006Non-current Assets 84,591 124,745 150,702 153,544 156,355 LT Investments 49,506 25,176 50,951 52,479 54,054 Net fixed Assets 5,124 5,476 4,624 4,855 5,098 Others 29,961 94,093 95,127 96,209 97,203Total Liabilities 59,895 92,089 105,855 113,651 117,491Current Liabilities 22,923 41,612 32,915 38,711 40,491 Accounts Payable 4,920 10,113 8,364 12,407 12,724 ST Borrowings 16,710 29,589 22,508 17,503 17,485 Others 1,294 1,910 2,043 8,801 10,282Long-term Liabilities 36,971 50,477 72,940 74,940 77,000 Long-term Debts 31,116 43,803 66,664 68,664 70,724 Others 5,856 6,674 6,276 6,276 6,276Shareholders' Equity 46,364 52,310 67,246 68,151 68,798 Common Stock 47,761 47,381 52,617 52,617 52,617 Capital Surplus 4,470 12,667 21,056 21,962 22,609 Retained Earnings (5,868) (7,739) (6,428) (6,428) (6,428) Preferred Stock 0 0 0 0 0


Key Ratios

Year to 31 Mar 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022FGrowth (% YoY)Sales 78.4 254.9 (20.5) 3.9 4.7OP 23.2 46.2 46.2 4.2 20.3EBITDA 24.5 39.2 43.2 8.6 20.2NP 120.4 (34.9) 184.1 (44.8) 27.4EPS 120.3 (34.4) 155.8 (44.8) 27.4Profitability (%)Gross Margin 33.8 11.7 16.8 19.7 21.4Operating Margin 15.8 6.1 8.0 11.7 13.4EBITDA Margin 35.8 14.0 25.3 26.5 30.4Net Profit Margin 35.0 6.4 23.0 12.2 14.8ROAA 4.5 5.0 6.0 5.5 6.4ROAE 9.6 5.8 13.7 6.7 8.4StabilityGross Debt/Equity (x) 1.5 2.4 1.9 2.1 2.1Net Debt/Equity (%) 74.0 154.1 150.3 135.3 138.0Interest Coverage (x) 3.3 4.6 6.9 7.0 (3.9)Interest & ST Debt Coverage (x) (3.8) 1.6 2.9 (5.2) (5.9)Cash Flow Interest Coverage (x) 3.3 4.6 6.9 7.0 (3.9)Cash Flow/Interest & ST Debt (x) 3.3 4.6 6.9 7.0 (3.9)Current Ratio (x) 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7Quick Ratio (x) 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6Net Debt (Bt mn) 30,028.9 59,708.5 82,565.6 74,723.9 76,190.4Per Share Data (Bt)EPS 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.4CFPS (0.3) (0.6) (1.2) (1.1) 0.6BVPS 3.4 3.3 4.2 4.2 4.2SPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0EBITDA/Share 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9DPS 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4ActivityAsset Turnover (x) 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2Days Receivables 56.3 22.4 67.1 94.6 94.8Days Inventory 28.6 5.9 7.6 7.4 7.3Days Payable 172.6 69.5 114.0 127.8 150.7Cash Cycle (87.7) (41.2) (39.3) (25.8) (48.6)


Profit & Loss

Year to 31 Mar (Bt mn) 2018 2019 2020 2021F 20221F

Sales 12,608 44,749 35,557 36,947 38,685

Cost of Goods Sold 8,349 39,498 29,566 29,667 30,425

Gross Profit 4,258 5,251 5,991 7,280 8,260

Operating Expenses 2,263 2,535 3,160 2,956 3,095

Operating Profit 1,995 2,716 2,831 4,324 5,165

Net Interest 198 447 359 1,409 1,650

Interest Income 1,434 2,089 2,604 3,409 3,749

Interest Expense 1,236 1,642 2,245 1,999 2,099

Net Investment Income/(Loss) 180 552 2,071 494 519

Net other Non-op. Income/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 0

Net Extraordinaries (including MI) 2,673 (202) 3,858 (518) (544)

Pretax Income 5,046 3,513 9,119 6,170 7,272

Income Taxes 776 773 1,478 1,343 1,680

Normalised Net Profit 1,369 3,248 4,776 4,505 5,738

Net Profit 4,416 2,873 8,162 4,505 5,738

EPS (Bt) 0.37 0.24 0.62 0.34 0.44


Cash Flow

Year to 31 Mar (Bt mn) 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F

Operating Cash Flow (7,543) (15,503) (13,998) 8,140 5,330

Net Profit 4,416 2,873 8,162 4,505 5,738

Depreciation & Amortization 758 793 971 1,407 1,689

Change in Working Capital (10,884) (19,130) (18,947) 3,571 (179)

Others (1,833) (39) (4,185) (1,343) (1,917)

Investment Cash Flow (7,539) (2,387) (17,596) (14,459) (1,181)

Net CAPEX (1,184) (1,334) (4,859) (1,181) (1,181)

Change in LT Investment 4,295 (24,329) 25,775 1,529 1,574

Change in Other Assets (5,498) 8,068 (35,375) (1,529) (1,574)

Free Cash Flow (4) (13,116) 3,598 22,599 6,511

Financing Cash Flow 4,270 27,757 27,551 (2,333) (3,678)

Change in Share Capital 0 0 0 0 0

Net Change in Debt 31,125 20,020 16,077 2,172 2,060

Change in Other LT Liab. (26,855) 7,736 11,475 (4,505) (5,738)

Net Cash Flow 4,266 14,641 31,149 20,266 2,833


Rates of Return on Invested Capital COGS Depreciation Operating Exp. Operating

Revenue Revenue Revenue Margin2018 66.2% 3.7% 18.0% 12.1%2019 88.3% 1.1% 5.7% 5.0%2020 83.2% 1.4% 8.9% 6.6%2021F 80.3% 1.3% 8.0% 10.4%2022F 78.6% 1.3% 8.0% 12.0%

Working Capital Net PPE Other Assets CapitalRevenue Revenue Revenue Turnover

2018 -0.1 0.4 2.0 0.42019 -0.5 0.1 1.6 0.82020 -0.3 0.1 1.6 0.72021F -0.3 0.1 1.6 0.72022F -0.3 0.1 1.5 0.7

Operating Capital Cash After-tax ReturnMargin Turnover Tax Rate on Inv. Capital

2018 12.1% 0.4 69.2% 3.6%2019 5.0% 0.8 79.9% 3.2%2020 6.6% 0.7 74.4% 3.4%2021F 10.4% 0.7 78.9% 5.8%2022F 12.0% 0.7 78.9% 7.0%

Year to Dec 1/ + +

Year to Dec x x =

=

Year to Dec + + =1-





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BTS Group Holdings – Recommendation & target price history

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Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20Share price Target price lowered Target price raised

Date Rating Target Price21-Feb-19 Outperform 11.36 10.2023-May-19 Outperform 12.50 11.5031-May-19 Outperform 12.50 11.6021-Aug-19 Outperform 14.00 12.8002-Oct-19 Outperform 14.00 13.4020-Nov-19 Outperform 15.20 14.0007-Jan-20 Outperform 15.20 13.1020-Feb-20 Outperform 15.20 12.9019-Mar-20 Outperform 13.50 8.7529-May-20 Outperform 13.50 12.10


Thailand Corporate Governance



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Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies

Source: www.thai-iod.com

Disclaimer: The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association ("IOD") regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an assessment of operation and is not based on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that date or when there is any change to the relevant information. Nevertheless, KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (KGI) does not confirm, verify, or certify the accuracy and completeness of such survey result.

Companies with Excellent CG ScoringStock Company name Stock Company name Stock Company name

ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE HMPRO HOME PRODUCT CENTER QH QUALITY HOUSES

ANAN ANANDA DEVELOPMENT INTUCH SHIN CORPORATION RATCH RATCHABURI ELECTRICITY GENERATING HOLDING

AOT AIRPORTS OF THAILAND IRPC IRPC ROBINS ROBINSON DEPARTMENT STORE

AP ASIAN PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT IVL INDORAMA VENTURES SAMART SAMART CORPORATION

BANPU BANPU KBANK KASIKORNBANK SAMTEL SAMART TELCOMS

BCP THE BANGCHAK PETROLEUM KCE KCE ELECTRONICS SCB THE SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK

BTS BTS GROUP HOLDINGS KKP KIATNAKIN BANK SCC THE SIAM CEMENT

CK CH. KARNCHANG KTB KRUNG THAI BANK SCCC SIAM CITY CEMENT

CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS KTC KRUNGTHAI CARD SPALI SUPALAI

CPN CENTRAL PATTANA LPN L.P.N. DEVELOPMENT SPRC STAR PETROLEUM REFINING

DELTA DELTA ELECTRONICS (THAILAND) MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL STEC SINO-THAI ENGINEERING AND CONSTRUCTION

DTAC TOTAL ACCESS COMMUNICATION MONO MONO TECHNOLOGY SVI SVI

EASTW EASTERN WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMPLANB PLAN B MEDIA TCAP THANACHART CAPITAL

EGCO ELECTRICITY GENERATING PSH PRUKSA HOLDING THCOM THAICOM

GFPT GFPT PTT PTT TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP

GPSC GLOBAL POWER SYNERGY PTTEP PTT EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION TMB TMB BANK

GUNKUL GUNKUL ENGINEERING PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL TOP THAI OIL

HANA HANA MICROELECTRONICS PYLON PYLON TRUE TRUE CORPORATION

Companies with Very Good CG ScoringStock Company name Stock Company name Stock Company name

AAV ASIA AVIATION ERW THE ERAWAN GROUP SAWAD SRISAWAD POWER 1979

AMATA AMATA CORPORATION GLOBAL SIAM GLOBAL HOUSE SCI SCI ELECTRIC

BBL BANGKOK BANK GLOW GLOW ENERGY SCN SCAN INTER

BCPG BCPG LH LAND AND HOUSES SEAFCO SEAFCO

BDMS BANGKOK DUSIT MEDICAL SERVICES MAJOR MAJOR CINEPLEX GROUP SIRI SANSIRI

BEM BANGKOK EXPRESSWAY AND METRO MAKRO SIAM MAKRO SMT STARS MICROELECTRONICS (THAILAND)

CENTEL CENTRAL PLAZA HOTEL MALEE MALEE SAMPRAN TASCO TIPCO ASPHALT

CHG CHULARAT HOSPITAL MTLS MUANGTHAI LEASING TKN TAOKAENOI FOOD & MARKETING

CKP CK POWER NOK NOK AIRLINES TVO THAI VEGETABLE OIL

DCC DYNASTY CERAMIC RS RS TWPC THAI WAH

Companies with Good CG ScoringStock Company name Stock Company name Stock Company name

AMA AMA MARINE BPP BANPU POWER SQ SAHAKOL EQUIPMENT

BA BANGKOK AIRWAYS CBG CARABAO GROUP TPCH TPC POWER HOLDING

BCH BANGKOK CHAIN HOSPITAL LPH LADPRAO GENERAL HOSPITAL

BH BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL SAPPE SAPPE

Companies classified Not in the three highest score groupsStock Company name Stock Company name Stock Company name

BGRIM B.GRIMM POWER TOA TOA PAINT (THAILAND) WHAUP WHA UTILITIES AND POWER

CPALL CP ALL UNIQ UNIQUE ENGINEERING AND CONSTRUCTION WORK WORKPOINT ENTERTAINMENT

THAI THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL WHA WHA CORPORATION

Thailand Anti-corruption Progress



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Level 5: ExtendedStock Company name Stock Company name Stock Company name

CPN CENTRAL PATTANA SCC THE SIAM CEMENT

Level 4: CertifiedStock Company name Stock Company name Stock Company nameADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE IFEC INTER FAR EAST ENGINEERING SVI SVI

BBL BANGKOK BANK KBANK KASIKORNBANK TCAP THANACHART CAPITAL

DCC DYNASTY CERAMIC KKP KIATNAKIN BANK TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP

DRT DIAMOND ROOFING TILES KTB KRUNG THAI BANK TMB TMB BANK

EGCO ELECTRICITY GENERATING MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL

ERW THE ERAWAN GROUP SCB THE SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK

Level 3: EstablishedStock Company name Stock Company name Stock Company nameAAV ASIA AVIATION DTAC TOTAL ACCESS COMMUNICATION PACE PACE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

ANAN ANANDA DEVELOPMENT GFPT GFPT PS PRUKSA REAL ESTATE

AP ASIAN PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT GL GROUP LEASE RATCH RATCHABURI ELECTRICITY GENERATING HOLDING

BA BANGKOK AIRWAYS GLOW GLOW ENERGY ROBINS ROBINSON DEPARTMENT STORE

BDMS BANGKOK DUSIT MEDICAL SERVICES GPSC GLOBAL POWER SYNERGY SAMART SAMART CORPORATION

BIGC BIG C SUPERCENTER HMPRO HOME PRODUCT CENTER SPALI SUPALAI

BJCHI BJC HEAVY INDUSTRIES KTC KRUNGTHAI CARD STEC SINO-THAI ENGINEERING AND CONSTRUCTION

CENTEL CENTRAL PLAZA HOTEL LPN L.P.N. DEVELOPMENT TASCO TIPCO ASPHALT

CHG CHULARAT HOSPITAL MAKRO SIAM MAKRO TMT THAI METAL TRADE

CK CH. KARNCHANG MODERN MODERNFORM GROUP TPCH TPC POWER HOLDING

CKP CK POWER NOK NOK AIRLINES WHA NOK AIRLINES

Level 2: DeclaredStock Company name Stock Company name Stock Company nameAOT AIRPORTS OF THAILAND GUNKUL GUNKUL ENGINEERING QH QUALITY HOUSES

BH BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL ILINK INTERLINK COMMUNICATION TRT TIRATHAI

GLOBAL SIAM GLOBAL HOUSE MTLS MUANGTHAI LEASING TVO THAI VEGETABLE OIL

Level 1: CommittedStock Company name Stock Company name Stock Company nameCBG CARABAO GROUP RS RS SAWAD SRISAWAD POWER 1979

MAJOR MAJOR CINEPLEX GROUP

No progressStock Company name Stock Company name Stock Company nameBCH BANGKOK CHAIN HOSPITAL CPALL CP ALL WORK WORKPOINT ENTERTAINMENT

BEM BANGKOK EXPRESSWAY AND METRO LPH LADPRAO GENERAL HOSPITAL

Anti-corruption Progress Indicator

Source: www.cgthailand.org

Disclaimer: The disclosure of the Anti-Corruption Progress Indicators of a listed company on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, which is assessed by the relevant institution as disclosed by the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission, is made in order to comply with the policy and sustainable development plan for the listed companies. The relevant institution made this assessment based on the information received from the listed company, as stipulated in the form for the assessment of Anti-corruption which refers to the Annual Registration Statement (Form 56-1), Annual Report (Form 56-2), or other relevant documents or reports of such listed company . The assessment result is therefore made from the perspective of a third party. It is not an assessment of operation and is not based on any inside information. Since this assessment is only the assessment result as of the date appearing in the assessment result, it may be changed after that date or when there is any change to the relevant information. Nevertheless, KGI Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (KGI) does not confirm, verify, or certify the accuracy and completeness of the assessment result.

Thailand Contact



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KGI Locations China Shanghai

Room 1507, Park Place, 1601 Nanjing West Road, Jingan District, Shanghai,

PRC 200040

Shenzhen

Room 24D1, 24/F, A Unit, Zhen Ye Building, 2014 Bao’annan Road,

Shenzhen, PRC 518008

Taiwan Taipei

700 Mingshui Road, Taipei, Taiwan

Telephone 886.2.2181.8888 ‧ Facsimile 886.2.8501.1691

Hong Kong

41/F Central Plaza, 18 Harbour Road, Wanchai, Hong Kong

Telephone 852.2878.6888 Facsimile 852.2878.6800

Thailand Bangkok

8th - 11th floors, Asia Centre Building

173 South Sathorn Road, Bangkok 10120, Thailand


Singapore 4 Shenton Way #13-01 SGX Centre 2

Singapore 068807


KGI's Ratings Rating Definition

Outperform (OP) The stock's excess return over the next twelve months is ranked in the top 40% of KGI's coverage universe in the related market (e.g. Taiwan)..

Neutral (N) The stock's excess return over the next twelve months is ranked in the range between the top 40% and the bottom 40% of KGI's coverage universe in the related market (e.g. Taiwan)

Under perform (U) The stock's excess return over the next twelve months is ranked in the bottom 40% of KGI's coverage universe in the related market (e.g. Taiwan).

Not Rated (NR) The stock is not rated by KGI.

Restricted (R) KGI policy and/or applicable law regulations preclude certain types of communications, including an investment recommendation, during the course of KGI's engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain other circumstances.

Excess return = 12M target price/current price-

Note When an analyst publishes a new report on a covered stock, we rank the stock's excess return with those of other stocks in KGI's coverage universe in the related market. We will assign a rating based on its ranking. If an analyst does not publish a new report on a covered stock, its rating will not be changed automatically.

Disclaimer KGI Securities (Thailand) Plc. ( “The Company” ) disclaims all warranties with regards to all information contained herein. In no event shall the Company be liable for any direct, indirect or any damages whatsoever resulting from loss of income or profits, arising by utilization and reliance on the information herein. All information hereunder does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any securities but constitutes our sole judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice.

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COMPANY UPDATE Thailand BTS Group Holdings · COMPANY UPDATE Thailand BTS Group Holdings ... bts