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Consumers, trends, families,
children, the future shop and
strategic challenges for Norstar
Futurist Marianne Levinsen,
M.Sc. Political Science
Centre for Future Studies http://uk.fremforsk.dk/
Kilde: Statistisk
Sentralbyro
Private consumption
Norway 3,15%.p.a. 2,6 % i DK og SE
Mængde-
Opgørelse
(faste priser)
Kilde: Danmarks Statistik
We get richer and richer in the long
run
Denmark and Finland
volumeindex
Situational consumption:
We buy by
inspiration and temptation
• Private consumption will rise from 25 to 40 % in the nordic region the next ten years
• Our wealth and prosperity have several impacts on the ways we buy things.
• We do not buy out of basic need but increasingly by inspiration, temptation or simply by coincidence
• Shopping for fun or shopping as entertainment
• Since 2008 we focus on price, security, and savings both as private and business costumers
Situational consumption
Nordic Population Growth
The Silver Tsunami
Increase in population the next 25 years.
Norway 28 %, Dk 9 %, Finland 10 % and
Sweden 16 %
Health –
a global trend in a wealthy
World • Becoming richer and richer
• Our body in a runaway world – the new
consumption.
• Health as an important issue at many agendas
– Family: Food diet, exercise, lifestyle – optimizing
your health especially family issue.
• Focus on health in schools, coorporations, retail,
everywhere.
• Health and health easy is business
• Many gurus and prophets to come!
The new luxury
Things we feel we do not
have! • Time: Decoupling, disconnection, having time for
yourself, free time.
• Attention – A luxury to be free of mass media, internet and cell phones
– Full attention from a person a good friend or family
• Space and room – Goodbye to monkey-class, traffic jam on freeways, simplifying
your life, back to nature
• Peace and quietness
• Nature and a sense of cleaness: clean air, clean water, clean food.
• Safety in our house, for a long and healthy life
Sustainability!
• Consumers have since the 1990s a global
focus on what´s going on out-there
• They expect coorporations to work with
ensuring the best and most secure methods for
productions and transportation with respect to
the people(kids) and the environment involved
in Europa, Asia or South America.
• Sustainability is steady work for you in the
future. It´s a company responsibility!
• Consumers will not pay for it, they just expect !
Time and Energy, Space
and Attention
Shortage of time and
attention
Retailing will be in
fierce competition
with e-tail
Increased shopping
while traveling,
staying abroad or
other times
A B
The new consumers
dual worlds
High
quality at
low price
Unique
or very
special
items
Abercrombie & Fitch,
N.Y.
The new paradigm
• Discount goes mainstream
– Ikea, H&M and Lidl will expand futher
– New high quality discount
• Up-market set back – luxury will have to create a new
platform in the future
• (greed is not so good anymore)
• Middle-market platforms eroding
• Brands in trouble – new branding strategies needed
• The old world will never come back again – changes as
profound as going from the 1970s to the 1980s.
Families in the future
The New Phases of Life
0 20 40 60 80
0 20 40 60
2000
1960
2030
Childhood
Teenager
Parents/
family
Elder
Freedom 1 Senior
Freedom 2
Types of Families!
The modern male
revolution
in the family - Men wants to be part of their childrens life
- They spend much moore time with them
- Marriage and being a family is very important to
them
- Knausgaard –” My struggle” 6 volumes,
Parents today
and in the future
• ” As long as the children are satisfied, we are
happy !”
• The health and well-being of the children is a
matter of great importance to them
• Food, leisure, activities,
• No talent must be wasted!
• A Garantee for that the kind of toy, game or
device I invest in will develop my childs talents
and skills !
Six generations: from digital
immigrants to digital natives
Baby Boomers
The large postwar generation, 68-generation
The pill, television and radio, the phone
Solidarity and collectivenes
Born 1940-54
Generation Jones
A huge generation but invisible generation
The stereo
Old time values but
Career and money
Born 1955-64
Generation X
A small generation after the pill, the first individualists
The VCR
Harmony, society and respect .
Born 1965-77
Generation Y
Small generation(women and the workforce)
The Personal computer and the cell phone
Born 1978-89
Generation Z
Born between the end of the Cold War and 9-11
Digital natives
What´s in it for me?
Born 1990-2001
New Millenium
Efter 9-11 generationen
global citizens
Wi–Fi (Wireless internet) born 2002
Generation Y & Z
Digital Natives
Social shoppers – shopping for fun
Inhabitant of the internet and internet shopping malls: The digital natives – Can´t remember a life without a pc and a cell-phone
– Let´s find the best price of a product world wide
– Without the cell-phone ” I feel Naked”
– Social networking is a must in life
Personal recognition for what I say or do – What´s in it for me !
Personal style over Brands – Loves to create their own products, music, way of doing things
Mobil Digital Now or
invisible in 2020
The Digital World
• Not only a sales channel- Retail.
• But an interesting place to visit
• Interactive and drags you or your children into
exiting and new universes or worlds
• Guide you to the relevant informations
• It´s can be sustainalibity, rewards for toy of the
year, a special device to develop your childs
fantasy, musical skills …….
• Direct personalised service 24/7
Technology:
From
Web 2.0 to 3.0
• Situational Shopping impulses via the web, cell phones etc
• Social meeting places a significant media factor
– Facebook, YouTube, special tv channels and even to some extend brand channels
• Pop-up Retail will be online
• Consumers will receive offers while they are walking around
– Like Lonely Planet on iPhone
• E-mail and other forms of communication takes place in social venues
• Apps that help to compare prices, product and places
• Involvement, open source and transparency
If you want loyalty - go
buy a dog (A student , London College of Fashion)
Børn og Unge
The new millinium
Generation born after 2001
Born digital
• They play on the i-pad or i-phone from a very
early age without being able to read or write
• It must be interactive when I touch it
• Trained in finding interesting games or
challenges and making hard and fast choices
of what is interesting or not
• Build or create something that is my project
• Let me try and play before I buy ! Trysumers!
Children as Costumers
• Talk to me and my desires as we know it from
• Build A Bear and American girl
• Individual attitude to me not my parents
• A shop that have me and my favorite toys as
the most importantin the world
• A place I feel at home
• Restaurant, cafe and playground
• Girls or Boys World
Tendenser om tid
og tidspres
Danske mænd og kvinder bruger begge 7 ½ time på løn- og husarbejde
Vi arbejder og transporterer os mere og mere
Vi bruger mere tid på at være sammen med vores børn, lave mad, købe ind, huslige gøremål og at spise
Vi sover mindre og bruger langt mindre tid på at lave ingenting
Vi mangler fritid og i særligt grad Fri Tid
– Det er den frie tid, som nogle forsøger at fange igen på toilettet
Ro, stilhed, nærvær, kvalitet, natur og fordybelse er fremtidens luksus og mangelvare ( salg, butik og produkter)
The future shop(location)
• A special destination where you know that you
will see, try, at experience things, you did not
expect.
• A travel or voyage you look forward to.
• Interesting sourroundings– other shops,
restaurants, cafes or historical sites
• Music, oases to sit and relax for parents and
children
Childrens world,
playground, eating and
products……
Strategic Challenges for Norstar
People are still people!
• Next to sex drive is rail transport the most
difficult to manage "Petraeus”
• Evidens is avaible but the human being is in the
way.( routine, power or best practice)
• Experience is not necessarily a good thing, it
can 1 years of experience mutiplied with 20
years.
• Power - Why some people have it- and others
dont! Jeffrey Pfeffer 2010,
• Professor i Organizational Behavoir, Stanford
The value chain
End user
Sub-
supplier
Producer Distributor
Sub-
supplier
Supplier
Supplier
Supplier of
sub-
supplier
Value added
Served market
Articulated
needs
Present products and
services
Market shares
Udnytte nye muligheder?
- Markedsandele
Un-
articulated
needs
Udnytte nye muligheder?
- Mulighedsandele
Udnytte nye muligheder?
- Mulighedsandele
Unserved market
Unexploited Opportunities
Cell phones, RFID
Unexploited Opportunities
Google, Skype, Facebook
Unexploited Opportunities
iPod/iTunes/iPhone,
Hedeselskabet
Challenges for
Companies
The served market
• Others products and brands
• Digital and fysical tools to innovate service and
the adventure for costumers in the shop
• A better digital presentation of the products
and the brands
• Showrooms with not only one brands but old,
new, recycled things and our brands
• Building up a community around the shop and
its products
• Education and traning of the staff in the shops
The served market
• Others products and brands
• Digital and fysical tools to innovate service and
the adventure for constumers in the shop
• A better digital presentation of the products
and the brands
• Showrooms with not only one brand but old,
new, recycled things and our brands
• Builind up a community around the shop
• Education and traning of the staff in the shops
New markets
• Traditionally other countries
• It could also be others segments of costumers
• Toys for pets
• Toys for elderly or disabled people to make life
better and maybee
• The toys – Trend sales
• Outlets – very popular now a days
• Recycling og giving a away markets in towns or
places with a tradition.
New sales channels
• Toys and games in the Bookstores
• Daycare for children at Bauhouse
• Playground or trygrounds for children at the
restaurant, hotel, servicestation, malls, and in
central places in cities.
• Healthy toys at the pharmacy
• Toys and leisure things in the sportshop
Marianne Levinsen
Fremforsk
Montanagade 29E
8000 Århus C
T 86 11 47 44
M 20 67 45 00
www.fremforsk.dk
http://uk.fremforsk.dk
