Consumers, trends, families,

children, the future shop and

strategic challenges for Norstar

Futurist Marianne Levinsen,

M.Sc. Political Science

Centre for Future Studies http://uk.fremforsk.dk/

Kilde: Statistisk

Sentralbyro

Private consumption

Norway 3,15%.p.a. 2,6 % i DK og SE

Mængde-

Opgørelse

(faste priser)

Kilde: Danmarks Statistik

We get richer and richer in the long

run

Denmark and Finland

volumeindex

Situational consumption:

We buy by

inspiration and temptation

• Private consumption will rise from 25 to 40 % in the nordic region the next ten years

• Our wealth and prosperity have several impacts on the ways we buy things.

• We do not buy out of basic need but increasingly by inspiration, temptation or simply by coincidence

• Shopping for fun or shopping as entertainment

• Since 2008 we focus on price, security, and savings both as private and business costumers

Situational consumption

Nordic Population Growth

The Silver Tsunami

Increase in population the next 25 years.

Norway 28 %, Dk 9 %, Finland 10 % and

Sweden 16 %

Health –

a global trend in a wealthy

World • Becoming richer and richer

• Our body in a runaway world – the new

consumption.

• Health as an important issue at many agendas

– Family: Food diet, exercise, lifestyle – optimizing

your health especially family issue.

• Focus on health in schools, coorporations, retail,

everywhere.

• Health and health easy is business

• Many gurus and prophets to come!

The new luxury

Things we feel we do not

have! • Time: Decoupling, disconnection, having time for

yourself, free time.

• Attention – A luxury to be free of mass media, internet and cell phones

– Full attention from a person a good friend or family

• Space and room – Goodbye to monkey-class, traffic jam on freeways, simplifying

your life, back to nature

• Peace and quietness

• Nature and a sense of cleaness: clean air, clean water, clean food.

• Safety in our house, for a long and healthy life

Sustainability!

• Consumers have since the 1990s a global

focus on what´s going on out-there

• They expect coorporations to work with

ensuring the best and most secure methods for

productions and transportation with respect to

the people(kids) and the environment involved

in Europa, Asia or South America.

• Sustainability is steady work for you in the

future. It´s a company responsibility!

• Consumers will not pay for it, they just expect !

Time and Energy, Space

and Attention

Shortage of time and

attention

Retailing will be in

fierce competition

with e-tail

Increased shopping

while traveling,

staying abroad or

other times

A B

The new consumers

dual worlds

High

quality at

low price

Unique

or very

special

items

Abercrombie & Fitch,

N.Y.

The new paradigm

• Discount goes mainstream

– Ikea, H&M and Lidl will expand futher

– New high quality discount

• Up-market set back – luxury will have to create a new

platform in the future

• (greed is not so good anymore)

• Middle-market platforms eroding

• Brands in trouble – new branding strategies needed

• The old world will never come back again – changes as

profound as going from the 1970s to the 1980s.

Families in the future

The New Phases of Life

0 20 40 60 80

0 20 40 60

2000

1960

2030

Childhood

Teenager

Parents/

family

Elder

Freedom 1 Senior

Freedom 2

Types of Families!

The modern male

revolution

in the family - Men wants to be part of their childrens life

- They spend much moore time with them

- Marriage and being a family is very important to

them

- Knausgaard –” My struggle” 6 volumes,

Parents today

and in the future

• ” As long as the children are satisfied, we are

happy !”

• The health and well-being of the children is a

matter of great importance to them

• Food, leisure, activities,

• No talent must be wasted!

• A Garantee for that the kind of toy, game or

device I invest in will develop my childs talents

and skills !

Six generations: from digital

immigrants to digital natives

Baby Boomers

The large postwar generation, 68-generation

The pill, television and radio, the phone

Solidarity and collectivenes

Born 1940-54

Generation Jones

A huge generation but invisible generation

The stereo

Old time values but

Career and money

Born 1955-64

Generation X

A small generation after the pill, the first individualists

The VCR

Harmony, society and respect .

Born 1965-77

Generation Y

Small generation(women and the workforce)

The Personal computer and the cell phone

Born 1978-89

Generation Z

Born between the end of the Cold War and 9-11

Digital natives

What´s in it for me?

Born 1990-2001

New Millenium

Efter 9-11 generationen

global citizens

Wi–Fi (Wireless internet) born 2002

Generation Y & Z

Digital Natives

Social shoppers – shopping for fun

Inhabitant of the internet and internet shopping malls: The digital natives – Can´t remember a life without a pc and a cell-phone

– Let´s find the best price of a product world wide

– Without the cell-phone ” I feel Naked”

– Social networking is a must in life

Personal recognition for what I say or do – What´s in it for me !

Personal style over Brands – Loves to create their own products, music, way of doing things

Mobil Digital Now or

invisible in 2020

The Digital World

• Not only a sales channel- Retail.

• But an interesting place to visit

• Interactive and drags you or your children into

exiting and new universes or worlds

• Guide you to the relevant informations

• It´s can be sustainalibity, rewards for toy of the

year, a special device to develop your childs

fantasy, musical skills …….

• Direct personalised service 24/7

Technology:

From

Web 2.0 to 3.0

• Situational Shopping impulses via the web, cell phones etc

• Social meeting places a significant media factor

– Facebook, YouTube, special tv channels and even to some extend brand channels

• Pop-up Retail will be online

• Consumers will receive offers while they are walking around

– Like Lonely Planet on iPhone

• E-mail and other forms of communication takes place in social venues

• Apps that help to compare prices, product and places

• Involvement, open source and transparency

If you want loyalty - go

buy a dog (A student , London College of Fashion)

Børn og Unge

The new millinium

Generation born after 2001

Born digital

• They play on the i-pad or i-phone from a very

early age without being able to read or write

• It must be interactive when I touch it

• Trained in finding interesting games or

challenges and making hard and fast choices

of what is interesting or not

• Build or create something that is my project

• Let me try and play before I buy ! Trysumers!

Children as Costumers

• Talk to me and my desires as we know it from

• Build A Bear and American girl

• Individual attitude to me not my parents

• A shop that have me and my favorite toys as

the most importantin the world

• A place I feel at home

• Restaurant, cafe and playground

• Girls or Boys World

Tendenser om tid

og tidspres

Danske mænd og kvinder bruger begge 7 ½ time på løn- og husarbejde

Vi arbejder og transporterer os mere og mere

Vi bruger mere tid på at være sammen med vores børn, lave mad, købe ind, huslige gøremål og at spise

Vi sover mindre og bruger langt mindre tid på at lave ingenting

Vi mangler fritid og i særligt grad Fri Tid

– Det er den frie tid, som nogle forsøger at fange igen på toilettet

Ro, stilhed, nærvær, kvalitet, natur og fordybelse er fremtidens luksus og mangelvare ( salg, butik og produkter)

The future shop(location)

• A special destination where you know that you

will see, try, at experience things, you did not

expect.

• A travel or voyage you look forward to.

• Interesting sourroundings– other shops,

restaurants, cafes or historical sites

• Music, oases to sit and relax for parents and

children

Childrens world,

playground, eating and

products……

Strategic Challenges for Norstar

People are still people!

• Next to sex drive is rail transport the most

difficult to manage "Petraeus”

• Evidens is avaible but the human being is in the

way.( routine, power or best practice)

• Experience is not necessarily a good thing, it

can 1 years of experience mutiplied with 20

years.

• Power - Why some people have it- and others

dont! Jeffrey Pfeffer 2010,

• Professor i Organizational Behavoir, Stanford

The value chain

End user

Sub-

supplier

Producer Distributor

Sub-

supplier

Supplier

Supplier

Supplier of

sub-

supplier

Value added

Served market

Articulated

needs

Present products and

services

Market shares

Udnytte nye muligheder?

- Markedsandele

Un-

articulated

needs

Udnytte nye muligheder?

- Mulighedsandele

Udnytte nye muligheder?

- Mulighedsandele

Unserved market

Unexploited Opportunities

Cell phones, RFID

Unexploited Opportunities

Google, Skype, Facebook

Unexploited Opportunities

iPod/iTunes/iPhone,

Hedeselskabet

Challenges for

Companies

The served market

• Others products and brands

• Digital and fysical tools to innovate service and

the adventure for costumers in the shop

• A better digital presentation of the products

and the brands

• Showrooms with not only one brands but old,

new, recycled things and our brands

• Building up a community around the shop and

its products

• Education and traning of the staff in the shops

The served market

• Others products and brands

• Digital and fysical tools to innovate service and

the adventure for constumers in the shop

• A better digital presentation of the products

and the brands

• Showrooms with not only one brand but old,

new, recycled things and our brands

• Builind up a community around the shop

• Education and traning of the staff in the shops

New markets

• Traditionally other countries

• It could also be others segments of costumers

• Toys for pets

• Toys for elderly or disabled people to make life

better and maybee

• The toys – Trend sales

• Outlets – very popular now a days

• Recycling og giving a away markets in towns or

places with a tradition.

New sales channels

• Toys and games in the Bookstores

• Daycare for children at Bauhouse

• Playground or trygrounds for children at the

restaurant, hotel, servicestation, malls, and in

central places in cities.

• Healthy toys at the pharmacy

• Toys and leisure things in the sportshop

Marianne Levinsen

Fremforsk

Montanagade 29E

8000 Århus C

E jbj@fremforsk.dk

T 86 11 47 44

M 20 67 45 00

www.fremforsk.dk

http://uk.fremforsk.dk