33

Controlling globalweatheroct01

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Controlling globalweatheroct01

� � ������� ����� ��� � ��� � � � � ������� � �

� ����� � � � ��� � "!$# % '&)( *,+�-/.0!1+2&3# "!1. 45�76�! � +2!�.8+9&:�;�7!

<>=@? ACBED;FHG�IKJML NPOHQ R'O)SCJTIUAVO;? GWOX=YN[Z]\^G_B`GaN3IbL�FdcdefO3L;gh)ijh k NHIl=nm�GWZoZp<�SHGWO[qHG;c>rdGts[JuOHv�=wAVOxczy < {P|W}~| h �^� <

Page 2: Controlling globalweatheroct01

� � � � � ����

� % ����-��5 ^��-��7!

� � !z�d&:��.0������-��7!

� � 61+^��&:+>��-l�� "���1 1�x-��]# �'&:+�.�-/���P ��9-���-��)�

� � ��&_&:+9!^� "���"��-l�� "����+ � � � �'&� �����-l��+

� � �>�P�C+9� '& �'62-��C+'���d��&:+

� � �>�P�C+9� ���7� ���7!'+9!^�C�

� � 61 '��+ ¡ �,�C¢a+'����-£�>+^�]# &:+^�V�"�¤�C�

� � 61 '��+ ¥ �,�C¢a+'����-£�>+^�

¦^AVO)=@IUA§ZoZ¨JuO3v =@FHG vpZ©AVª«NPZ�m�GaN_=tFHG�I>¬ ­ Lt=wA§ªPG�I i { |;{[{ h

Page 3: Controlling globalweatheroct01

® � �' � ���'�� �

� � � �¯°-�!'+0± !'� .$&:�,��¯06^�C�]² !'� �C�°&_!1 �.8�7+^�]² !1��V!1��³ �C�C�°&_� � .0�"&t-b!�¯ &_�'�§6 61�7��&3² +>�[���

� � ��� �P� +9�/-�� -�!1 ^�C+ 6��"&_&t-l�� �!1+z��# ���^� �P� ���7!z�x&:�7��x61+ �1 ^�x6'� �"´ 6��"&_&t-l�� �!1+z���

µ A GEB¶B`GWOX=�J·NPZ¸Zº¹ »KA�I¼ªPJMQ F[q[InI½J¾LaNPO3GEB¿»�IbAV? Bw=@I½JTÀÁJTOHvDCAVD;q[ZMNX=�JMAVO L)GWOX=¶GWIÂBag

� � ��� �P� �'61 �!�¯8+ �d6'+ ���/-�� ^�C+Ã# �"�z� �C� ���7!^�x&:�7��x61+ �'&:+'�5-��;+ ��-b� -�!1¯ �!1. �� z�x61� �"´ ³ +� z�d6'+9&�P�>�P�C+9� ���

¦^AVO)=@IUA§ZoZ¨JuO3v =@FHG vpZ©AVª«NPZ�m�GaN_=tFHG�I>¬ ­ Lt=wA§ªPG�I i { |;{[{ h

Page 4: Controlling globalweatheroct01

Ä ������� Å Æ Ç0�1�� �

� � + �'&:+^�;+9!z� �x61+ ��!1.�+9&_�¤��-�!�¯ ���7!���+9�^�C� ´��°& �7��& ��"�'&:�� ���6

� È �z�d�/-b!1+ �d6'+ �P�>�P�C+9� '& �'62-��C+'���d��&:+ �"´ ���7!z�d&:�7�Â��+9& ´ �°& �x61+ ¯0���7�1 ��� z�x� �°�V��61+9&:+

� É +^�~��&t-���+ �d6'+ ���7� ���7!'+9!^�C� �"´ �V����6 ���7!z�d&:�7�Â��+9&«�

� *,+�¯� ��7 "!1. +>�x62-l�� "��Ê0�1+^�C��-��7!'��# �!�. �d6'+ -��;�§�'+^��"´ ´ +^ 1�x-��2-��/-��)� "!1. ���°�C�pË���+9!'+5ÌÍ� �x&� 1.�+�ÎH�"� � '&:+�7!��Ï� �1&t-Ð+5Ñ,� ���7!1�x-/.8+9&:+�.¿�

� � 61+ +>Ò'-��C�C+9!���+ ��´ �d6'+ �P+��'6�!'�7����¯2� �P�-�� �"�Ó+9� +2!^� �x61+ ³ +^ ^�x61+2& ���7!z�x&:�7�Ô��+9& -�� �"�� "�'�d-b�"��+ z� �x61+ ��-�� + &� �!�¯8+ �"´ Õ°Ö'×�Ø�Ö �Ù+^ 1&:���

¦^AVO)=@IUA§ZoZ¨JuO3v =@FHG vpZ©AVª«NPZ�m�GaN_=tFHG�I>¬ ­ Lt=wA§ªPG�I i { |;{[{ h

Page 5: Controlling globalweatheroct01

Ú � �Û� �����'KÇ7� � � � Ü9½Ü

� � 61+ +� '&Ý�x6ÍÞb� z�d� �°�V�"6'+9&:+ 61 '� �"+z+9!6^���"���x61+z�d-�ß�+�. �C� �"+ ��61 1����-l���

� � 61 1�°� -�� �"�/-Ð+^� �x6� z� �x6'+9&:+ -�� Ì !2-��C+�'&:+�.°-l���[ ��9-b�/-��)� ��-�� + �/-�� -��

à A ? N_=á=¶G�I�FHAam m�GWZoZ[=tFHG N_=@? ACB_D[FHG�I�G JâB AVªãB:G�IlS3G)Q NPOHQ? ApQ[GWZ©GãQÙg

� � 61 1�°� "�Ó��� -�� ���/-�+^� ��+9!'�x-���-���-��)� �C� �V� ��Ô��"+2&Ý�d��&_�� z��-��7!'���

� ä �;+9&t-�+z� �"´ �V����6 �"+9&Ý�x�"&_�1 z��-��,!1� �C� �d6'+ z�d� �°�V�"6'+9&:+ � -/¯06^� �"+ .8+5��-��;+�. �C� +5� +'����-£�>+2�Ï����7!z�d&:�7�$�x61+ +5�>�7�Ô�z��-Ð�7! �"´ �x6'+ ^�x� ���§��61+2&:+

eл2=@FHG NX=@? ACBED[F3G�IbG J©B AVªãB`GWIlSHGãQ NPO3Q ? ApQ;G�ZåG)Q BEq)æ L3J¾G�OX=tZº¹m�G�Z¸ZÓg

¦^AVO)=@IUA§ZoZ¨JuO3v =@FHG vpZ©AVª«NPZ�m�GaN_=tFHG�I>¬ ­ Lt=wA§ªPG�I i { |;{[{ h

Page 6: Controlling globalweatheroct01

ç ��� Å KÇ0�>� � �����pè ���é ��>Ü

� % ����-Ð�7!1� ���ê�'��& �"�>+9& 6"�1¯�+ �V�"+'���x&_�"� �"´���ê ���+^� -�! �x61+ z�x� �°�V��61+9&:+Ã�

� � � ��Ô��+2& �§�1 ^��-/ ��7�~�� ���+^� 61 ^�>+ �§6'�°&Ý�C+9& ��-�� +���ê ���+^���

R�InIUA�IÔB JuO =tFHG BE? NPZoZåGEBw=�B`LaNPZåGEBëmëJTZoZxL)AV? D[ZåGt=¶GWZº¹LXA§OX=YNP? JTO«N_=ÝG =@FÁACB:G B`LaNPZåGEB�AVO =@FHG LWF«NHI�NHLt=¶GWI½J©Bì=�J¾L =�JT? GB`LÁNPZ©G N)BÝBYApL3J·N_=ÝG)Q mëJí=tF =@F«N_=�B_D«N_=�J·NPZ�B:LaNPZåG;g

� � 61+^�;+ +9&_&:��&:� ³ -��Ô�$�x61+2! -�!1.$����+ +9&_&:�°&:� -�! �x61+!'+>Ò�� �£ '&�¯8+9& �~�� ���+ �!�. ��� �7!Í�ê�ê�>�

� ä � �x61+ �� �� + ��-�� +Ã# �.2�>+'����-��7! -b� ���/-�+^� �d61 z���-�!�� +9&_&:��&:� �7! �d6'+ �£ '&�¯8+ �~�� ���+^� ³ -��Ô�Û-�! �x�"&_!�� "�'�;+ �£ '&�¯�+ +9&_&:��&:� �,! �x61+ �V61��&Ý�P+z�P� �~�� ���+^���

� 61+^�;+ -�!z�P+2&� �����-��7!'� ��+� 1. �C� Ì !9-��C+ �'&:+�.°-l���[ ��9-b�/-��)���-�� + �/-�� -����

¦^AVO)=@IUA§ZoZ¨JuO3v =@FHG vpZ©AVª«NPZ�m�GaN_=tFHG�I>¬ ­ Lt=wA§ªPG�I i { |;{[{ h

Page 7: Controlling globalweatheroct01

� � ������� � � î Ç � � � �1KÇ Üzè�Ü>�ê� é Ü

ï ð3ñ§ò9ójñ�ôÙõdñ ö�÷ øÙñ�ùnú ð~û üzý�ý�ü5û þ5ý£ÿ���ó��5ñ����zó�� þ�ùñ§õ�ÿ¸ð3ñêý¾úõjö>ðHñêô þêñêù���ózù���ü �PÿTö�ôVð � ÿÔý�ý^ð��ÁñVñ�ù �� ñ õ��üjö�Pÿ¤õ ðãú§ð��Áñ�û� ÿ����ÿÔô ÿ��ãð ü�����ùìüÙõ��Áö�ù��� � +z���7!1 �!���+0± �7!'+ �P�>�P�C+9� +9!z�d&� 2-�!'� �!1���x6'+9&

³ -��x6 �1 1&Ý��-/ ��¿-�!�´��°&_� ^��-��7!

� � !'�C�[ ��"�Ó+ ��+9&t-���.°-l� ��&_�9-Ó�P� �ê �! ��+ ´ �7�Ô����³ +�.

¦^AVO)=@IUA§ZoZ¨JuO3v =@FHG vpZ©AVª«NPZ�m�GaN_=tFHG�I>¬ ­ Lt=wA§ªPG�I i { |;{[{ h

Page 8: Controlling globalweatheroct01

� Æ �x��� ��� � ç � � � �W�Û�1�� � � � � �W� Ç0�1KÇ,�

� ózù:ù ñ�ô � ö�þêñ�ùìü �PÿTö8ô]üzý�þ�ùìüjõ��Pÿ¤õdñ ü � ��� � õdñêô��Áñêù ðÿÂý�ý/óVð���ùìü��Áñ ��]ü � ��jñ �]ú^ô�üzû ÿÏõ~ð �5ö�øÙñ�ù:ôêÿÂô�� ��jñü ��û ö>ð�þ jñ�ù ñ õ üzô �êñ ñ�!"��ù ñ�û ñêý¾ú ðHñêôVð;ÿ��Pÿoøjñ �Áö ð~û ü5ý�ýõ]üzô��5ñxð ÿÂô ÿÔô�ÿ��Pÿ£ü5ý1õdö�ô#��ÿ��Pÿ¤ö8ô§ð ��üêÿÂý¾ú�� $%!�üzû þzýoñxðð~ó5û û ü�ù¶ÿ'&xñ(� ÿÂô � �ü � ÷¶ö�ý�ýoö(� ð ÿÂôÙõ�ý�ó#�5ñ )� É ^�P '���x-�� -��£ z��-Ð�7!

� * +9!'+9&� ^��-��7! �"´ +9!'��+9� ����+^�

� � '&�¯8+>�C+�. �7�'�;+9&Y�5 ^��-��7!'�

¦^AVO)=@IUA§ZoZ¨JuO3v =@FHG vpZ©AVª«NPZ�m�GaN_=tFHG�I>¬ ­ Lt=wA§ªPG�I i { |;{[{ h

Page 9: Controlling globalweatheroct01

� � ������� � � î ����é � Ü+� � � ��KÇ é � Å � �fÜ-,� � � �W�Û�1�� � � � �/.Û� é � ����Ü

� 0 .1Î21 ä � ." z�[ 1�;�x-�� -b�£ ^��-��7! Ì !1.�� �x6'+ �§� ��Ô��+^�C�¯0���7�1 "� �"+2&Ý�d��&_�� z��-��7!$# '� � +� '�§��&:+�. �]� �d6'+ �'&t-���&t-��°& �1 ��1(�¯0&:�7�"!1. +9&_&:��& ���"�5 '&t-/ �!���+z�

� � -�!1¯$���£ '& �>+'���C�°&:�]# �'��+^. �P� ¯�+9!'+9&� z�P+ +9!1�;+9� �"�Ó+´ ��&:+'�� 1�C�P�]# '&:+ �x61+ ´  1�C�P+z�P� ¯$&:��³ -�!�¯�"+2&Ý�d��&_�� z��-��7!'� "���7�^� ¯°-£�>+9! � ��.8+9�ô ��&:+'�� 1�C��"�>+9& Ì !2-��P+ ��-�� + -�!z�P+2&Y�5 "�

� � '&�¯8+>�C+�. �7�'�;+9&Y�5 ^��-��7!'� '&:+ .8+9�����1�j+�. -�! �d61 z�&:+�¯°-��7! ��´ �d6'+ -�!2-���-� "�7�C�[ z�P+ ³ 69-l��6$# -£´ �"+>�«�C+9&�7�'��+2&Y�>+�.¿#Û³ �7���£. -�� �'&:�"�>+ �x61+ ´��°&:+'�� '�P� �"´ �x6� z��C�P��&_�

¦^AVO)=@IUA§ZoZ¨JuO3v =@FHG vpZ©AVª«NPZ�m�GaN_=tFHG�I>¬ ­ Lt=wA§ªPG�I i { |;{[{ h

Page 10: Controlling globalweatheroct01

3 è�Ü>��� é � �CÇ � ��ê� Ç0��Æ ���

4 ózù þ�ùö�þêöêð3ñ(� õpö8ô ��ù ö8ý�ý¸ñ�ù ÿuð ð;ÿÂû ÿÂý¤ü�ù ÿÂô �5ñ�ôjñ�ùìüzý��Áö÷Ýñpñ"�5�]üjõ�6 õdö�ô���ù ö�ý�ðãú§ð��Áñ�û ð õdö�û û ö8ô ÿÂô û üzôdú ÿÔô��8óVð���ùÝÿ�üzýþ�ù ö9õdñdðÁðHñdð879jö"� ñ~øjñêù ÿ�� ÿ¸ð �9ù ñÙü���ý¾ú õpö8û þ5ý£ÿ¤õ ü �Áñ"� �[ú �� ñ� � ��� ��+9& �"´ .8+�¯0&:+^+^� ��´ ´)&:+^+�.8�7� &:+�Ê0�9-�&:+^. �P�

&:+9�'&:+^�;+9!z� �x61+ z�d� �°�V�"6'+9&:+ �.8+�Ê0�� z�P+2�Ï�

� � 61+ !'�7!"��-�!1+^ 1& !1 ^�x��&:+ ��´ �d6'+ ¯8�"�>+9&_!2-�!�¯+�Ê0�� z��-��7!'�

� � 61+ �1 "���5-��)� ��´ �7�1�;+9&Y�5 z��-Ð�7!1� �"´ �x61+ z�d� �°�V�"6'+9&:+

� � 61+ &:+�Ê0�9-b&:+9� +2!^� �d61 z� ���7!z�d&:�7����+ +5� +����C+�. ^��x-/¯$!2-£Ìë�� �!^� ��-�� + �£ 1¯��

� � 61+ .°-;: �����¤�)� ��´ +5� +'����-�!1¯ ���7!z�d&:�7�

� � 61+ �� �2-/¯0�1�7�'� !1 z�d��&:+ �"´ �x61+ Ì�¯0��&:+ ��´ � +2&t-��

¦^AVO)=@IUA§ZoZ¨JuO3v =@FHG vpZ©AVª«NPZ�m�GaN_=tFHG�I>¬ ­ Lt=wA§ªPG�I i { |;{[{ h

Page 11: Controlling globalweatheroct01

< ��� � � � � ���Û��� � � Ç7� ������� ���� �

Ü'Ç � � é ���'KÇ = � � Ç � � �H�

>

? @ A B A C DE F @ G A B A F @ HB I B B I B @ B I B @

J K H B L M C B J K H B L M C BN L O B P O Q L G

R S S L T B HU C @ G F ME F @ B O F D D L O

V F W L O @ A @ X

Y Q H L O W C B A F @ H

R Z P C B A F @ H

R�Z¨JT? JTO«N_=ÝG =@F3G [ AVªãB`GWIlS«NX=�JMAVOãB]\ NPOHQ [ L)AVOX=tIUAVZ¸Z©GWI2\ =wA BEFHAamFÁAam N à_^ ` ? ApQ[GWZdNPD[D3IbAãsPJT? N_=¶G_B�=tFHG N_=t? APBED[FHGWIbG

µ FHG B�NP? G a§Aam L�F«NHIl=ÛQ[GEB:L�I½JTªPG_B�=tFHG Q�N_=YN N)BÝBtJu? JTZMNX=�JMAVOBw¹aBì=¶GW? b½=tFHG GEBì= Ju? N_=¶A�Idc7mëJ =@FCJTO =@FHG L)AVOX=tIUAVZ¸Z©GWI�Jí=ìB`G�Zí»

¦^AVO)=@IUA§ZoZ¨JuO3v =@FHG vpZ©AVª«NPZ�m�GaN_=tFHG�I>¬ ­ Lt=wA§ªPG�I i { |;{[{ h

Page 12: Controlling globalweatheroct01

� � é � ��KÇ7�Û�1�� îC� Ç0�ê� �WÜ

µ FHG O[q[? ªPGWI1AC»�Q[G)vpI�G)G_BÛAW»9»áIbGãG)QPA§? IbG�eVqCJuI�G)Q =wAIbGWD3IbG_B`G�O)=7=@FHG N_=t? APBED[FHGWIbG NÁQ[Gfepq«N_=ÝG�Zí¹Xg

µ FHG OÁAVO[Z¨JTOHGaNHI0O«N_=@q;IbG AW»9=tFHG vPAWSHGWI¼OCJTOHv G�epq�N_=�JMAVOãBag µ FHGN_=t? APBED[FHGWIbG J©B OHAVO[Z¨JuOHGÁNHI8NPOHQ BYA§? G =�JT? GEB QxJâB:LXAVOX= JuO;qÁAVqãBagg A�I9GtsWNP? D[Z©G�c L�Z©AVqHQWB F«NXS3G BEF«NHInD GãQ[v[G_Bag

µ FHG D«NPqHL«Jí=�¹ NPOHQ JuO�NÁL)LWq[I�NÁLE¹ AW»"AVªãB`GWIlS�N_=�JMAVOãB AW»2=tFHGN_=t? APBED[FHGWIbG;g � N_=¶GWZoZ¨Jí=ÝGEB D3IUACSCJ¾Q[G N F[qHv[G SÁA§Zoq[? G AW»JTO)»½A�I¼? N_=�JMAVOxg k Aam�GESHG�I^=tFCJâB JTO)»KA�I¼? N_= JåAVO J©B OÁA�= NPZím�N ¹ãB JTO=@F3G I½J¾vpFX= D[Z¾NÁL)G�c�NÁL)LWq[I�NX=¶G G�OÁA§qHvpFxc A�I�AC»2=@FHG IKJMvpF)=7=n¹[D[G;g

µ FHG LXAVO)=@IUA§ZÙ? qãBì= ªPG GihzGãLt=¶GãQ N_=�B JMvpOPJkj LÁNPOX=7= Ju? G ZMNHvWB=wA ? JTOCJu? Jml)G =@FHG BtJml)G AC»2=@FHG DPGWI/=tq[I¼ª«NX=�JMAVOãBacV¹XGt=,=@F3GBw¹aBì=¶GW? JâB JTO[FHGWIbG�O)=@Zí¹ q;O[D3IbGãQxJ¾Lt=YN[ª[Z©G NX= ZâAVO3v ZåGaNHQ = Ju? GEBÁg

µ FHG QxJâæ LWq[Zº=n¹ AW»�GihzGãLt= JuOHv LXA§OX=@IbAVZÏg µ FHG LXA§OX=@IbAVZ? G)LWF«NPOCJ©BE? B�Q[A OHA�=�¹_G =ëG sPJ©Bì=Xg µ FHG JMQ;GaNPZÙD[G�I/=tq[I¼ª�N_=�JMAVOãBacmÛFCJTZ©G B_? N[ZoZ JTO NP? D[Z¨Jí=tqHQ[G;c5? N@¹ ª[G Z¾NHI�v[G JuO B`LÁNPZåG;g

µ FHG NP? ªCJ¾vpqÁAVqãB O«NX=@q[I�G AW»2=@FHG j vVq[IbG AW»,? GWI½J =Xg g A�IJTO[F«NPªCJ =YN[OX= B AC» à G m ­ InZ©GÁNPOãBacÙGWZ·JT? JuO�N_=�JTOHv N F[q[I¼IKJMLÁNPOHG=@F;IbGaNX=�=wA =@F«NX=ÛL3J =n¹ ? N ¹ =YNPÀ G D3IbGãL)G)Q;G�OHLãG AWS3G�I9NPZ¸ZxG�Z B`G;gn qX= JuO v[GWOHG�IfNPZdN_=á=¶G�? DX= JuO3v =¶A B�N_=�J©Bw»f¹ ? q;Z = JuD[ZåGAVªpoáG)L =�JâSHG_B ? N ¹ IbG_BEq[Zº= JuO LXA§O�a]J¾Lt= BÁg

¦^AVO)=@IUA§ZoZ¨JuO3v =@FHG vpZ©AVª«NPZ�m�GaN_=tFHG�I>¬ ­ Lt=wA§ªPG�I i { |;{[{ h

Page 13: Controlling globalweatheroct01

3 è�Ü>�ê� é Ç,� é � � � � ���>Ü

� � ��� +2&t-l�� "�ó +� ^�x6'+9& �1&:+^.�-l����-��7!

� É ^�P '���x-�� -��£ z��-Ð�7! �P�>�C�P+9� �

� � ^�C+9�Ô��-��P+ &:+9� ���C+ �;+9!'�d-b!�¯

� � +9&�d��&_�1 ^��-��7!'�

� � �7� �"�z�C+9& �P+��'6�!'�7����¯2�

� � �>�P�C+9� � -b!^�C+�¯0&� ^��-��7!

¦^AVO)=@IUA§ZoZ¨JuO3v =@FHG vpZ©AVª«NPZ�m�GaN_=tFHG�I>¬ ­ Lt=wA§ªPG�I i { |;{[{ h

Page 14: Controlling globalweatheroct01

� Æ é � ��KÇ7� � � ���Û��� � � � ��� Å KÇ0�1�� �

� ä .9�5 �!���+^� -�! ���7� �"�z�C+9& �"��³ +9& ³ -��Ô��+9!1 "����+ �x6'+&:+5Ì !'+9� +9!z� �"´ � � �

¦8q[InIbG�O)= FCJ¾vpF I�GEBYA§ZoqX= JåA§O ? G_BYArqB`LaNPZåG ? ApQ[G�Z B DCAdJTOX=,=@FHGm�N ¹ »KA�I8NÁQ�S�NPOHLãGEB JTO vpZ©AVª«NPZÙ? ApQ;G�Z B

� s Ò��d&� ��"�,�£ ^��-�!1¯ ´ �°& Õ°Ö �Ù+� '&:� �§�1¯"¯8+^�C�P� ¯0���7�1 ��� ��.�+9�¿&:+^���,�Ô�^��-��7! �"´ "���'&:�'Ò'-�� z�P+9�¤� tvu w x

� % �°&:+ �!�. � ��&:+ �"´ �d6'+ �"6^�>�x-l��� �"´ �x61+ z�d� �°�V�"6'+9&:+ ³ -��Â� ��+ &:+^�;�7�Ï�>+�. +>Ò����/-l�5-��x�Ï�

¦^AVO)=@IUA§ZoZ¨JuO3v =@FHG vpZ©AVª«NPZ�m�GaN_=tFHG�I>¬ ­ Lt=wA§ªPG�I i { |;{[{ h

Page 15: Controlling globalweatheroct01

y �Û�>� � Ü�Ü9�é ��f���'�� � Üzè�Ü>��� é Ü

� � 61+ ���"&_&:+2!^� �P�P ^�C+�ÎH�"´ÝÎã�x61+�Ϋ '&Ý� -�� 0 .�Îz1 ä �

­ DPG�IfN_=�JMAVO«NPZ~}�Q{q}|�<Í\ NãB¶BEq[? GEB N DPG�I»KGãLt= ? AVQ[G�Z�AWS3G�IBEFÁA�I/=�= Ju? G DPG�IKJåAVQWB bp~ FÁAVq[IÔB�A�I2|W} FÁAVq[IÔB�c�NPOHQ j�OHQWBë=tFHGJTOCJí= J N[ZdLXA§OHQxJ =�JMAVO N_=7=@FHG Bw=YNHIl=¿AW»2=@FHG DPGWI½JMApQÙcVmÛFPJMLWF ªPG_Bì=jx=ìB N[ZoZpN)S«NWJTZMN[ª[Z©G A§ªãB`G�IÂS«N_= JåA§OãB Qpq[I½JTOHv =tFHG DPG�IKJåApQ

� � ��&_&:+9!^� &:+^��+^ 1& ��6 ´ �����1�;+^� �,! ��"�'&:�'Ò'-b� z��-Ð�7!1��C� �d6'+ +>Ò��C+9!�.8+�. � ��Ô� �! Ì �¤�C+9&

µ FHG D3I½JTOHL«JuD«N[ZjJ©B¶BEqHG J©B�=¶A GEæ L3J¾G�OX=tZº¹ Q[GEB:L�I½JTªPG NPOHQ GESÁAVZíSHG=@F3G F[qHv[G LXACS«NHIKJ NPO3L)G ? N_=@IKJís Q[G_B`L�IKJuªPJuOHv =tFHG q[OHL)GWI/=`NWJuO)=n¹AW»9=tFHG Bw¹ãBw=¶G�? Bw=YN_=ÝG;g

¦^AVO)=@IUA§ZoZ¨JuO3v =@FHG vpZ©AVª«NPZ�m�GaN_=tFHG�I>¬ ­ Lt=wA§ªPG�I i { |;{[{ h

Page 16: Controlling globalweatheroct01

3 �Û�ê� ������� ��� é � �ê� Ü^� � Ü9��

� � +>³ �;+9!'����&:� 61 ��>+ �>+2&Y� 69-/¯06 �V�"+'���x&� "�&:+^�;�7�Ô�z��-Ð�7!

<0OHQ mëJTZoZ�D3IUApQVqHL)G FCJ¾vpFHGWI'SHG�Il=�J¾LaNPZjI�GEBYA§ZoqX= JåA§O »½A�I^=tFHGIbG =@IKJMGESHG)Q =¶GW? DPG�IfN_=@q[I�G NPOHQ ? AdJâBw=@q[I�G D3IUA�jêZ©G_B

� � -/¯06'+9& &:+z���7�Â�^��-��7!$# ¯$&:+^ ^�C+9& !��"� �"+9&:� �"´�� ^�C+9�Ô�/-Ó�P+^�]# �!�. 69-/¯06'+9& ��ê���"&� ���� '&:+ +êÒ��"+'���C+�.-�! �x6'+ ´)�^�x��&:+

� � �z�d��&:+ �/-/.� '& �;+9!'����&:� ³ -��Â� �'&:�"��-�.�+ 62-/¯06&:+^�;�7�Ô�z��-Ð�7!Í# 62-/¯06 ��ê����&� ���� �7�'��+2&Y�5 ^��-��7!'� �"´³ -�!1.�� �!1. z�d� �°�V�"6'+9&t-l� ���7� �"�°�x-���-��7!

¦^AVO)=@IUA§ZoZ¨JuO3v =@FHG vpZ©AVª«NPZ�m�GaN_=tFHG�I>¬ ­ Lt=wA§ªPG�I i { |;{[{ h

Page 17: Controlling globalweatheroct01

ç � �H��Æ �x� ���1�� � Ü

� ä -�& ��&� �´`� ���,!^�x&� 9-b���

¦^AVOX=tI�NWJTZ B NHIbG G_B¶B`G�O)=�J·NPZoZí¹ L3JTI¼InqãB L�Z©AVqHQWB NPOHQ JTO�a�qHGWOHL)GªCA�=tF =@FHG BYAVZ¾NHI�N[OHQ =@FHGWI¼? NPZÙIfNÁQxJ·N_=�JMAVOxg � Z·J¾vpFX=�S�NHI½J·N_=�JMAVOãBJTO =tFHG =�JT? JuOHv�c>Z©GESHGWZíBac�N[OHQ IUAVqX=ÝGEB�AW»�NWJTIbLWI�NX»�=�m"AVq[ZåQD3IbApQpqHLãG DPG�Il=@q[Inª«N_=�JMAVOãBÁg

� � �7�£ '& &:+5Ñ�+'���C�°&:�

e�O Z©Aam GaNHIl=@F A�I¼ªCJ =Xcx=@F3GEB`G m"AVq;Z©Q D«IUApQpq3L)G ª3IKJMvVFX=,B_DCA�= B�A§O=@F3G OCJMvVFX=�BtJ¾Q[G;c�NPO3Q B_F«NÁQPAamÃB AVO =@F3G Q�N ¹ BtJ¾Q[G;g

� � �� ���+ ���,�£ '& ���'³ +2&

�Ù��` v;G�OHGWI�N_=¶A�IÂB QPAamÛO;Z·JTO[À G�O3G�IbvW¹ JTO =@FHG ? JMLWIUAam�N)SHG;gµ FCJâB ? N ¹ ªPG N =@q[O�NPª[ZåG N_=@? ACBED;FHG�IKJML FHGÁN_=�BYAVq[I�L)G�g

� � -�!1. �"��³ +9&

<0O G�OHA�I¼? AVqãB vpIKJMQ AW»9»�NPOãBëmÛFCJ¾L�F QPAVq[ª;Z©GãQ NãBëmëJTOHQ=@q;I¼ªCJTOHGEB ? J¾vpFX=7=@IfNPOãBw»¼G�I8NX=@? ACBED[F3G�I½J¾L ? AV? G�OX=tq[? JTO =@FHG»KA�I¼? AW»�G�ZåG)L =@I½J¾L G�OHGWIbv�¹)g

¦^AVO)=@IUA§ZoZ¨JuO3v =@FHG vpZ©AVª«NPZ�m�GaN_=tFHG�I>¬ ­ Lt=wA§ªPG�I i { |;{[{ h

Page 18: Controlling globalweatheroct01

� � é � Æ���� � �ê� Ç � � � ��� è

� ñ ù ñ§ò9óêÿÂù ñ�û ñ�ô �ãð ö�÷ �8ýoö5�]üzý�� ñjü ��jñ�ù õpö8ô ��ù ö8ý9ü�ù ñð���ü�� �5ñ�ùÝÿÂô#�����zó � �8ýoö+��üzý���� � û ö��5ñ�ý·ð ü�� �� ñð~ó�����6jÿÔýoö8û ñ��Áñêù ð«õ üzýoñ ð3ñpñ�û ü ����ü�ÿÔô�ü �5ý¸ñ ÿÔô ��jñ � w��+u wú~ñÙü�ù9�PÿÔû ñ ÷Eùìüzû ñv�� � �! �d6'+ �1 ���+ �"´ 1.2�5 "!���+^� -�! ���7� ���z�P+9&

�C+'��6"!'�7����¯2� �ê �! ��+ � 2-�!z�[ 2-�!'+�.��

¦^AVO)=@IUA§ZoZ¨JuO3v =@FHG vpZ©AVª«NPZ�m�GaN_=tFHG�I>¬ ­ Lt=wA§ªPG�I i { |;{[{ h

Page 19: Controlling globalweatheroct01

3 è�Ü>�ê� é Ü ������ �W���'�� �

� ñ �8ýoö+��üzý�� ñÙü���jñ�ù õdö�ô���ù ö�ý�ðãú§ð��Áñ�û ÿ¸ð üû ñ(��ü�� ðãú§ð��Áñ�û � � ö2ö8ý¨ð üzô�� û ñ��� ö��5ö8ýoöv��ÿTñxð ÷¶ö'ùû ñ(��ü�� ðãú§ð��Áñ�û ð ñ�ô#��ÿÂôjñpñêùÝÿÂô�� �üpøjñ �êñVñ�ô �8ùÝÿ¨øjñêô �[úù ñVõpñ�ô � �5ñ�÷Ýñ�ô§ð3ñ ü5ô#� üjñ�ù ö>ð~þ�üÙõdñ þ�ùö{�Eñ§õ��ãð8��ð~óÙõ üVð

� � 61+ �V�� ���+ �§6��z���x��+

� � 61+ �C�d&� z�P+^¯�-l� .8+5´ +9!'��+ -b!9-���-/ z��-��>+ � � É ���

¦^AVO)=@IUA§ZoZ¨JuO3v =@FHG vpZ©AVª«NPZ�m�GaN_=tFHG�I>¬ ­ Lt=wA§ªPG�I i { |;{[{ h

Page 20: Controlling globalweatheroct01

ç � � Ü^� � � ���§� Ç0�' � ��Ü

� É +5�>+9���7� � +>�x61��. �C� �� "�Ð�����£ z�P+ �x61+�"+2&Ý�d��&_�� z��-��7!'� !1+^+^.�+�. �P� ���7!z�x&:�7�0�d6'+ �x&� ��1( �"´ 6���&_&t-l�� "!'+0�

� � �1 "!z��-�´:� �x61+ �x-�ß�+ �"´ �x61+ ��+9&Ý�d��&_�1 ^��-��7!'�!'+^+�.8+�. �C� .�� �x62-����

¦^AVO)=@IUA§ZoZ¨JuO3v =@FHG vpZ©AVª«NPZ�m�GaN_=tFHG�I>¬ ­ Lt=wA§ªPG�I i { |;{[{ h

Page 21: Controlling globalweatheroct01

ç � � Ü^� � �-. � � ���é � ���>� � Ü^����Æ �

� ñ �]ü§ð[ÿÏõ ñ�!�þ�ñêùÝÿÂû ñêô�� ÿuð ð;ÿÂû þ5ý¾ú ü ø]ü�ùÝÿ�ü �PÿTö�ô ö�ô� ���,ï � )� � �7!'�d-�.�+9& �;�7� + -�!2-���-� "�Í´ ��&:+'�� 1�C� �"´ 6��"&_&t-l�� �!1+

µ FCJâB J©B�=@FHG q[O[D[G�I/=tq[I¼ª[G)Q I¼q[O ��g g IbAV? = Ju? G { =wA �,g^ Jí=tF Bì=YN_=ÝGEB ��b{�cÛNPO3Q ��b��5c_g

� � &:+� z�P+ ¯8�� "�,�C�P ^�C+ � �¡  ¢ ³ -��x6 �x61+ 6��"&_&t-/�ê �!'+�"���d-���-��7!'+�. z� ��-�� +   �P� ��+ uvw £"x +� '�C� �"´ �x6'+�"���d-���-��7! -b! ¤ �¡  ¢

� � �;+ 0 .¥1 ä � �C� Ì !1. "! �7�z��-�� ��Û�"+9&Ý�x��&_�"+�.�x-�� ���£ z��-Ð�7! ¦

§ BtJT? q[Zº=YNPOHG)AVqãBEZí¹ ? JuOPJu? JmlXG_Bë=@FHG QxJ¨hzG�I�G�OHLãG »áIUAV? =@FHGvPA�N[Z § b©�5c ª «�b©�5c�N[OHQ =@FHG JTOCJí= J N[Z�Bì=`N_=¶G § b{�c ª ��b {�c_g

§ b{�c ª ��b {�c JâBë=@F3G ? JTOCJT? N[Z�DPGWI/=@q;I¼ª«N_= JåA§O =¶A v[Gt=7mëJ =@FCJTO§ b©�5cvª «�b��5cëAW»2=@FHG vPA~NPZÏg

¦^AVO)=@IUA§ZoZ¨JuO3v =@FHG vpZ©AVª«NPZ�m�GaN_=tFHG�I>¬ ­ Lt=wA§ªPG�I i { |;{[{ h

Page 22: Controlling globalweatheroct01

ç � � Ü^� � Ç,� Ü>� îpÆ � Ç0�'�� �

¬ ö'ù � ]ü§ðHñ ­ �êö��� �� ñ �>ö1ü5ý�û ÿ¸ð~û ü �Hõ ü5ô#� ��jñ ð;ÿ®&dñ ö�÷��jñ ÿÂôêÿ��Pÿ�üzý�þêñêù���ózù���ü �PÿTö�ô ü�ù ñ û ñjü§ð�ózù ñ"� � ÿ��� ü ð[ÿÔû þzýoñò8ó�ü#�9ùìü �Pÿ¤õ ôjö�ù:û )

¯ °±�²´³µ²·¶i²�¸¹²´º

¦ ±{³;¶�¸ �¡»¼¢9½ ¤ ±{³;¶�¸ �¡»�¢¾ ±¿¸

|

À ñ�ù ñ Á  ÃrÄ5Å�Æ_Å�Ç"È��ÊÉ�ÅpË�Å £ ù üzô#�>ñ ö�øjñêù üzý�ý���jñ �9ùÝÿÌ� þêö�ÿÂô �ãðüzô�� »  à w Å   È#� � jñ ð«õ üzý�ÿÂô#� ¾ �5ñ�þêñêô��êð ö�ôzý¾ú ö�ôø]ü�ùÝÿ�ü��zýoñ üzô�� ýoñ�øÙñ�ýz�

ÍvÎ"Ï�ÐÒÑ2Î(ÓÔÓÖÕ'Ï{× ÐÒØÚÙ ×8ÓmÎ"ÛrܹÓ�ÝÊÙÞÜ�Ð�ØÚÙßÑ�à á â�ÐãÎ(Û¹ÙßÑåä�æ ç�æèæ�é

Page 23: Controlling globalweatheroct01

ç ê ë ìví � î ë ìví ì�ïñð ò ó

ô õ ö+÷�÷�øúù�û�üþý ÿ�ü�ø���ø�û�� ��� � � �� � ý� ��¹ý�� ��ý¥÷������ þ÷���� ø��5ý�� �/ö+÷ ø ü¥ø���ø û������èû��¹ý

ô � ý ! ! " ù#�$� +ö��¹û���ø%��ü &�÷�ø�� ø%� ')( * (�',+.- ø/�0 û 132 465 &�÷�ø�� �6 ñûñù�ø ü7&8+ û�ü�� �¿ý�ü �;û:9#ý�÷�� ø ü �; ý��ý�÷<��øúù�û��

ô � ø=� �� ø�>-ý?� ûþ÷�û�� ý)�¿ý�÷�ø%@û���ø%�/ü3� �,A �0 þý ���/ö+ü���ûþ÷B9�;û:9#ý�÷C+ ù ö�� ö�� ö�� ùD�/ü���ýþùE��ø%�/üF+ û�ü�� ÷�û�� ø û���øG��ý��÷�û�ü3�HA�ý�÷ ûþ÷�ý ö3��ý?�

ô � ý ���3��ý¥÷B��ý?� ��ý û �(ö+÷BAÒûñù�ý �¿ý�� �ý�÷�û���ö�÷�ý ø%�ø üñù ÷�ý û���ý?� �:9 I J ýK��ý�÷B9D- þý�÷�ý ø ü ��ö�÷��ø=� ö,�;û���øL�/ü��M Ù N©Î6O�ÏQP ÐÒØ¿ÕSR�Ý%ÜTR Ù�Ï Î6OÚ×"Ø Ð Î U Ü�Õ Ï�Ð�Ü�Õ'Ï Ð�ØÚÙ ØHOèÑ Ñ©Õ âÞܹÏÚÙÝ9ØÚÙ�Ï OVRiÕ'ÏÚ× Ð�ØÚÙ R�ÕWU XèÓÖÕZY�ÙTP XrÜÚÑ Ü[U Ù�СÙßÑ©ÕS\ÞÜ�Ð�Õ Î"ÏVRÁg á Ï�Ó^] Ð�ØÚÙR�Õ_U XèÓ�ÕZY�ÙVP XßÜÚÑdÜ[U ÙiÐ ÙßÑ�ÕZ\ÞÜ�мմÎ(ÏVR ÜÚÑ Ù â`OèÑ Ñ ÙßÏ�Ð�Ó^] ÜTarÜ�Õ Ó ÜèÛèÓmÙ Õ ÏÐÒØ{Ù b b c dePCfhgjilk Rm]nR Ð Ù`U g

ÍvÎ"Ï�ÐÒÑ2Î(ÓÔÓÖÕ'Ï{× ÐÒØÚÙ ×8ÓmÎ"ÛrܹÓ�ÝÊÙÞÜ�Ð�ØÚÙßÑ�à á â�ÐãÎ(Û¹ÙßÑåä�æ ç�æèæ�é

Page 24: Controlling globalweatheroct01

o ê ë ìví p qßí9ì+ð r2ï�ì

ô s �/�,�[� ��A �; ý ùD����� A�ö+üñùt��ø%�/üu�v�R ÐwNxOHyÚâ{z}|~v6y aVRagD|�z Ù`�dÜ�z�|�v6y

u�v�R�zwNxOHyÚâ{z}|~v6y XC��v`Yj�S� N�v��þÝ8|_yQP`R8aVRagjU v�PH�`��� Ü�]����

u�v�R�zwNxOHyÚâ{z}|~v6y XC��v`Yj�S� N�v��?z��`U X[��� Ü�z�OH�=� aVRagjU v�PH�`��� Ü�]����

ô ! �w�+ý��$�"ö+÷BAÒûåùý �C���3- ý��[� �;û:9#ý�÷�� þ÷�ý����"ö�÷�ý û+ü7�- ø ü��,�� yHXH����z�OH���H�TP |Wy[|�z�|��[����v6yCP;|�z�|�v�yVR

� yHXH����z�OH���H�TP � ��v6OH�3N�v����V�n�TRmz

  ����z�OH���H�TP � ��v6OH�3N�v����V�n�TRmz

  ����z�OH���H�TP |Wy[|�z�|��[����v6yCP;|�z�|�v�yVR

  ����z�OH������z}|~v6y

u�v6yTz���v��¡�¢|WyC£ z��Q� £��Sv6�¤�[�¦¥��n��z��Q���)§ ¨ ��zmv��[���ª©�« ¬�«H«�­

Page 25: Controlling globalweatheroct01

® ¯ ° ï ±8ð ² ³�ï3´ ¯ ² µ °w¶ ´ ïj· q`¸ ï�´ ¯ ²

18km-shift

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7¹

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Iteration

J T

otal

/ 10

00

Total Cost Function vs. Iteration in 4D-Var

112km-shift

u�v6yTz���v��¡�¢|WyC£ z��Q� £��Sv6�¤�[�¦¥��n��z��Q���)§ ¨ ��zmv��[���ª©�« ¬�«H«�­

Page 26: Controlling globalweatheroct01

® ¯ °)¼ ±�½ ² ³ ¼ ´ ¯ ² ¾ q ¯ ¿ r�· ± ¯ q À ´Á² ò °

J0 500 1000 1500

108

64

2

Wind

i0t0i0t6i10t0i10t6

u�v6yTz���v��¡�¢|WyC£ z��Q� £��Sv6�¤�[�¦¥��n��z��Q���)§ ¨ ��zmv��[���ª©�« ¬�«H«�­

Page 27: Controlling globalweatheroct01

® ¯ °)¼ ±0½ ² ³ ¼ ´ ¯ ² ¾ q ¯ ¿ r�· ± ¯ q ¼ · Â ¾ · q`¸ ¼ ½ q�·

J0 1000 2000 3000 4000

108

64

2

Temperature

i0t0i0t6i10t0i10t6

u�v6yTz���v��¡�¢|WyC£ z��Q� £��Sv6�¤�[�¦¥��n��z��Q���)§ ¨ ��zmv��[���ª©�« ¬�«H«�­

Page 28: Controlling globalweatheroct01

à ² ¾ · q ¼ ½ q;Ä · ò ´Á² ´ ¼ ´Å¸ r ³ ¯ ² ò ´ ¼ ´ ¯ ² °

u�v6yTz���v��¡�¢|WyC£ z��Q� £��Sv6�¤�[�¦¥��n��z��Q���)§ ¨ ��zmv��[���ª©�« ¬�«H«�­

Page 29: Controlling globalweatheroct01

à ² ¾ · q ¼ ½ q;Ä · ò Æ Ç ¯ ½ q ± ¯ q�· ³�¸ °)¼

u�v6yTz���v��¡�¢|WyC£ z��Q� £��Sv6�¤�[�¦¥��n��z��Q���)§ ¨ ��zmv��[���ª©�« ¬�«H«�­

Page 30: Controlling globalweatheroct01

o · q ¼ ½ q;Ä · ò Æ Ç ¯ ½ q ± ¯ q�· ³�¸ °)¼

u�v6yTz���v��¡�¢|WyC£ z��Q� £��Sv6�¤�[�¦¥��n��z��Q���)§ ¨ ��zmv��[���ª©�« ¬�«H«�­

Page 31: Controlling globalweatheroct01

o · q ¼ ½ q;Ä · ò ´Á² ´ ¼ ´Å¸ r ³ ¯ ² ò ´ ¼ ´ ¯ ² °

u�v6yTz���v��¡�¢|WyC£ z��Q� £��Sv6�¤�[�¦¥��n��z��Q���)§ ¨ ��zmv��[���ª©�« ¬�«H«�­

Page 32: Controlling globalweatheroct01

o · q ¼ ½ q;Ä ¸ ¼ ´ ¯ ²

u�v6yTz���v��¡�¢|WyC£ z��Q� £��Sv6�¤�[�¦¥��n��z��Q���)§ ¨ ��zmv��[���ª©�« ¬�«H«�­

Page 33: Controlling globalweatheroct01

o Ç ¸ ° · È ¯ Ä)É�· ³ ¼ ´Êµw· °

ô Ë ý)> ü ýÌ� ý�ü���� ��� �0 þý ÍÎ��Ï�Ð Ñ Ë �[��ö���9� RÒ� �[|~£��C���Î����RBv6�ÓO�z}|~v6y;ÔKU v¦��� ���T�`OH����z�� aQ�`�ÕR�|~v6y v`N8b b c

Ö�× �[U |WyC� z��Q� �{Ø��V��zÙv`N�P;|ZØ����=��y�z ���n��P z�|WU �ÚR.v6y z��C� R{|Z\T�v`N�z��Q� X[���Ûz�OH�Ü�¤��z�|�v6ynR

Ý v¦�3z��Q� £[ve�[�ÞÔj|WyQ�`�¡OCPH� v6yH��] z��Q� ��yC����£`] v`Nßz��Q� U |ZR�U ��z����|_y RÒv6U � �=�T£;|~v6y

b v�P0|�NÊ] z��Q� ��v�y�z���v6��aQ�V��z�v��3RBv z��¤��zàv6y��^] �V����zÒ�`|_y zá]HX[��Râv`NX[�`��z�O����¤��z�|�v�yVR U |~£��Tz �[� �[�¡�Svn¥��VPãÔ)�HO�z �H�¡�Svn¥X[�`��z�O����¤��z�|�v�yVR ��v6yTz}|_yHO�v6OVR |_y z}|_U �

ä z�OQP�] z��Q� �ÚØ��T�{zwv`N$U v�P����0�[yQP X[�`��z�OH���¤��z}|~v6y ���Ü��v��

ô � �$ � ýK��ý��F�H9)���¹ýÌ� �5ý���ø�&�ü� RÒ� z��Q� ��yQ�`��£�] v`N�z��Q� X[���Ûz�OH�Ü�¤��z�|�v6ynR |Wy z��Q� �HO����Å|h�n�HyQ��n�VRÒ� R�z�OQP0|~��RÙz�v PHv � RÒ���[��� �Hy¤�[��]VR�|SR v`NÌz��Q� v6y v��Ü��|�zRm]nR�z��`U ��v6U X�v�yQ��y�z�R ���TRÒ�TP v6y z��C� RÒv6�~�C�Î���{å��T��z�v����v�yQ�T�`X�z

u�v6yTz���v��¡�¢|WyC£ z��Q� £��Sv6�¤�[�¦¥��n��z��Q���)§ ¨ ��zmv��[���ª©�« ¬�«H«�­