Cuba Embargo Affirmative - MSDI 2013

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  • 8/10/2019 Cuba Embargo Affirmative - MSDI 2013

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    The Missouri State Debate Institute 2013 Cuba Af/NegStarter Pack Jef Bess

    Starter Pack--- Cuba Af/Neg

    ***1AC***..............................................................................................................................................3

    1AC Inherency...................................................................................................................................... 4

    1AC Plan...............................................................................................................................................51AC Latin America Advantage.............................................................................................................6

    1AC Soft Power Advantage................................................................................................................ 10

    1AC Solvency.....................................................................................................................................15

    ***Inherency/Solvency***...................................................................................................................17

    Inherency Ext--- A2 Relations Now....................................................................................................18

    ***Latin America Advantage***........................................................................................................19

    Relations Uniqueness..........................................................................................................................20

    Relations Uniqueness--- Now Key......................................................................................................22

    Relations Uniqueness--- A2 Obama Appeal........................................................................................23

    Removing Embargo Solves Relations.................................................................................................24

    Removing Embargo Solves Relations--- A2 Regional Influences.......................................................26

    Latin America Relations--- China Competition...................................................................................27

    A2 Appeasement Turn--- General.......................................................................................................28

    A2 Appeasement Turn--- Economics..................................................................................................29

    Latin America Impact--- Global Instability.........................................................................................30

    Econ Collapse Causes War........................................................................................................... ......31Proliferation Causes War.................................................................................................................... 32

    ***Soft Power Advantage***.............................................................................................................. 3

    Soft Power Uniqueness--- General......................................................................................................35

    Soft Power Uniqueness--- Cuba Key...................................................................................................36

    Aff Solves Soft Power.........................................................................................................................38

    Soft Power Key to Hegemony.............................................................................................................39

    A2 Soft Power Fails............................................................................................................................ 41

    A2 Hard Power Solves........................................................................................................................42

    A2 Gov Policies Not Key....................................................................................................................44

    Heg Solves War.................................................................................................................................. 45

    Heg Sustainable--- Catch-All.............................................................................................................. 46

    Heg Sustainable--- Soft Power............................................................................................................49

    Heg Sustainable--- Economic Power...................................................................................................50

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    The Missouri State Debate Institute 2013 Cuba Af/NegStarter Pack Jef Bess

    A2 Smooth Transition.........................................................................................................................51

    ***Solvency***.....................................................................................................................................!3

    Solvency--- Reform.............................................................................................................................54

    Solvency--- Obama Leadership Key...................................................................................................55

    ***"AC/#i$cellaneo%$***...................................................................................................................!&2AC Terrorism Add-On...................................................................................................................... 57

    A2 No Capability/Motive....................................................................................................................60

    A2 Politics Link..................................................................................................................................62

    A2 Politics Link--- A2 Cuban Americans...........................................................................................64

    A2 Critique--- Lifting Embargo = D Rule...........................................................................................65

    ***'egative***.....................................................................................................................................&&

    1NC Latin America Relations Defense............................................................................................... 67

    2NC Latin America Relations Defense............................................................................................... 68

    Cuba Relations Defense...................................................................................................................... 70

    1NC Latin America Impact Defense...................................................................................................71

    2NC Latin America Impact Defense...................................................................................................72

    1NC Soft Power Defense....................................................................................................................73

    2NC Soft Power Defense....................................................................................................................74

    1NC Heg Impact Defense................................................................................................................. ..75

    2NC Heg Impact Defense................................................................................................................. ..76

    1NC/2NC Prolif Defense.................................................................................................................... 77

    1NC/2NC Econ Defense.....................................................................................................................78

    1NC Politics Link................................................................................................................................81

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    1AC

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    1AC Inherenc!

    Contention 1" Inherenc!

    #ba$a has $o%e& to ease restrictions on engage$ent 'ithCuba but (u)) )i(t o( the e$bargo is ke!*echte) 2011(Marilyn Bechtel, activist and author, January 31, 2011, Tie to norali!erelations "ith #u$a,% Peo&le's orld, htt&)**"""+&eo&les"orld+or*tie-to-norali!e-relations-"ith-cu$a*.

    /ts sae to say that no issue in +,S, (oreign o)ic! has )ingere& so )ong.(un&a$enta))! unchange&. as our countr!s econo$ic b)ocka&e an&&raconian restrictions on other re)ations 'ith a %er! near neighbor. Cuba,Presi&ent #ba$as recent $o%es to ease those restrictions, includin thoseannounced in id-January, are a ro$ising start to a )ong-o%er&ue nor$a)iationo( +,S, re)ations"ith our island neih$or+ Beun in cto$er 1450 - 6ust onths ater the #u$an&eo&le overthre" 7+S+-$acked dictator 8ulencio Batista - the $lockade and other $ans have $eenstrenthened several ties over the decades+ Besides severely restrictin trade "ith #u$a and

    i&osin &enalties on other countries trade "ith the island, successive 7+S+ adinistrations havei&osed onerous conditions on travel there $y 7+S+ citi!ens+ Soon a(ter beco$ingresi&ent. *arack #ba$a signa)e& a ne' oening to'ar& Cuba b! great)!easing restrictions on tra%e) to Cuba b! Cuban A$ericans. an& on theirsen&ing re$ittances to (a$i)! $e$bers in Cuba, In $i&-anuar! theresi&ent again $o%e& to ease tra%e) restrictions, this tie reo&enin the "ay oreducational and cultural e9chanes and ena$lin all :ericans to send ;nancial su&&ort to &eo&le in#u$a, as "ell as e9&andin the nu$er o 7+S+ air&orts that can receive / a e9treely rati;ed to see the series o &ositive chanes to coe ro thisadinistration, ;rst in 2004 "ith its ne" &olicies or reunitin ailies and increasin

    telecounications and huanitarian aid to #u$a, and today "ith the announceent o theseencourain &olicy chanes,> said 7+S+ ?e&+ Bar$ara =ee, @-#ali+, in a Jan+ 1A stateent+ =ee headed a2004 #onressional deleation to #u$a, "hich on its return called or &ositive chanes in relations$et"een the t"o countries+ otin that #u$a is the only country in the "orld "here :ericans areor$idden to travel, =ee called the $lockade >one o the nations lonest-held orein &olicy ailures,>

    and e9&ressed the ho&e that the a&$inistrations )atest announce$ent 'as 4ustone $ore ste to'ar& nor$a)ie& re)ations,

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    1AC P)an

    P)an" The +nite& States (e&era) go%ern$ent shou)&

    substantia))! increase its econo$ic engage$ent to'ar& the5eub)ic o( Cuba b! )i(ting its econo$ic e$bargo on the5eub)ic o( Cuba,

    C

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    1AC 6atin A$erica A&%antage

    A&%antage 7777 " 6atin A$erica 5e)ations

    The Cuba e$bargo costs the +S internationa) cre&ibi)it! an&&oo$s 6atin A$erican re)ations--- P)an so)%es*irns 2013(=arry Birns, #D: @irector, and, 8rederick B+ Mills, #D: Senior ?esearch 8ello",January 30, 2013, Best Tie or 7S-#u$a ?a&&rocheent is o",% htt&)**"""+coha+or*$est-tie-or-u-s-cu$a-ra&&rocheent-is-no"*Esthash+Fis1&G$+d&u

    /n addition to $ein counter-&roductive and ioral, +,S, o)ic! to'ar&s 8a%ana is a)soanachronistic,@urin the e9cesses o the cold "ar, the 7+S+ souht to use harsh and unorivineasures to isolate #u$a ro its neih$ors in order to liit the ins c)osest a))ies suort the e$bargo, Instea&. o%er the!ears. )ea&ers in NAT# an& the #;CD $e$ber nations ha%e %isite& Cubaan&. in so$e cases. a))ocate& )ines o( cre&it to the regi$e, So it 'as nosurrise that in No%e$ber o( 2012. the +nite& Nations ?enera) Asse$b)!%ote& o%er'he)$ing)!(1II 3., or the 21st year in a ro", against the +S e$bargo,8inally, "hile a sli a6ority o #u$an :ericans still avor the easure, chanin deora&hics areerodin and outdatin this su&&ort+ :s aed #u$an ?esearcher, ayne Sith, the director o the=atin :erica ?ihts K Security) #u$a Pro6ect, at the #enter or /nternational Policy, &oints out, There

    are no" any ore ne" youn #u$an :ericans "ho su&&ort a ore sensi$le a&&roach to #u$a%(ashinton Post, ov+ 4, 2012.+

    Af boosts re)ations an& so)%es regiona) stabi)it!--- No' is theke! ti$e9hite 2013(?o$ert L+ hite, senior ello" at the #enter or /nternational Policy, 7nited Statesa$assador to Parauay ro 14 to 144 and to Ll Salvador ro 14I0 to 14I1, March , 2013,:ter #hNve!, a #hance to ?ethink ?elations ith #u$a,% e" Oork Ties,htt&)**"""+nyties+co*2013*03*0I*o&inion*ater-chave!-ho&e-or-ood-neih$ors-in-latin-aerica+htl&ae"antedQallKRrQ0.

    @#5 $ost o( our histor!. the +nite& States assu$e& that its securit! 'asine=tricab)! )inke& to a artnershi 'ith 6atin A$erica,This leacy dates ro theMonroe @octrine, articulated in 1I23, throuh the ?io &act, the &ost"ar treaty that &leded the 7nited

    States to coe to the deense o its allies in #entral and South :erica+et (or a ha)(-centur!.our o)icies to'ar& our southern neighbors ha%e a)ternate& bet'eeninter%ention an& neg)ect. inaroriate $e&&)ing an& $isse&oortunities, The &eaththis "eek o(President Duo ChB%eo ene!uela "ho alon"ith 8idel #astro o #u$a "as &erha&s the ost vocierous critic o the 7nited States aon the

    &olitical leaders o the estern Deis&here in recent decades ofers an oortunit! torestore bon&s 'ith otentia) a))ies 'ho share the A$erican goa) o(roserit!,Throuhout his career, the autocratic Mr+ #hNve! use& our e$bargo as a

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    'e&ge 'ith 'hich to antagonie the +nite& States an& a)ienate itssuorters,Dis uel hel&ed &ro& u& the rule o Mr+ #astro and his $rother ?aUl, #u$a's current&resident+ The e$bargo no )onger ser%es an! use(u) urose(i it ever did at all.VPresident #ba$a shou)& en& it, thouh it "ould ean overcoin &o"erul o&&osition ro#u$an-:erican la"akers in #onress+ An en& to the Cuba e$bargo 'ou)& sen& ao'er(u) signa) to a)) o( 6atin A$erica that the +nite& States 'ants a ne'.

    'ar$er re)ationshi 'ith &e$ocratic (orces seeking socia) changethroughout the A$ericas,

    6atin A$erican instabi)it! esca)ates &ra's in great o'ers5och)in 1(Jaes 8rancis ?ochlin, Proessor o Political Science at kanaan 7niversity, 144A,@iscoverin the :ericas) The Lvolution o #anadian 8orein Policy To"ards =atin :erica,% &aes 130-131.hile there "ere econoic otivations or #anadian &olicy in #entral :erica, security considerations "ere

    &erha&s ore i&ortant+ #anada &ossessed an interest in&rootin sta$ility in the ace o a &otential declineo 7+S+ heeony in the :ericas+ Perce&tions o declinin 7+S+ in

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    Pro)i(eration $akes nuc)ear 'ar ine%itab)e- reasons it>s&estabi)iing8eisbourg 2012(8ranXois Deis$our, #hairan o the /nternational /nstitute or StrateicStudies and o the Yeneva #entre or Security Policy, :&ril A, 2012, Do" Bad ould the 8urtherS&read o uclear ea&ons Be,% on&rolieration Policy Lducation #enter,htt&)**"""+n&olicy+or*article+&h&aidQ111KtidQA.

    8u$an societies ten& to )ack the i$agination to think through, and to act u&on,"hat have $ecoe kno"n as Gb)ack s'an> e%ents(25.) that 'hich has ne%er occurre&(or "hich has ha&&ened very rarely and in a "holly diferent conte9t. is deeed not $e in the ;eld o reality, and to"hich ust $e added eventualities "hich are denied $ecause their conseWuences are to a"ul to conte&late+ Thee9trees o huan isconduct (the incredulity in the ace o evidence o the Dolocaust, the ailure to iaine 4*11.$ear testiony to this hard-"ired trait o our s&ecies+ This "ould not norally "arrant ention as a actor oro"in salience i not or the recession into tie o the oriinal and only use o nuclear "ea&ons in :uust 14AC+

    Non-use o( nuc)ear 'eaons $a! be taken (or grante& rather than beingan abso)ute taboo,?ecent "ritin on the re&utedly liited efects o the Diroshia and aasaki $o$s(2. ay contri$ute to such a trend, in the nae o reducin the leitiacy o nuclear "ea&ons+ ?ecent (and otenco&ellin. historical accounts o the surrender o the Ja&anese L&ire "hich do"n&lay the role o the atoic$o$ins in co&arison to early research can &roduce a siilar efect, even i that ay not have $een theintention (2I.+ Do"ever desira$le it has $een, the end o atos&heric nuclear testin (24. has reoved or orethan three decades the &eriodic reinders "hich such onstrous detonations ade as to the uniWuely destructive

    nature o nuclear "ea&ons+ There is a rea) an& gro'ing risk that 'e (orget 'hat 'asob%ious to those 'ho Frst &escribe& in 11 the uniEue nature o( !et-to-be ro&uce& nuc)ear 'eaons(30.+ The risk is no dou$t hiher in those states or "hich the historyo orld ar // has little relevance and "hich have not had the "ill or the o&&ortunity to "restle at the tie or e9

    &ost acto "ith the oral and strateic i&lications o the nuclear $o$in o Ja&an in 14AC+ +nsustainab)estrains are&ossi$ly thesinle $ost co$e))ing (eature o( conte$orar!ro)i(eration, Tight geograhica) constraints "ith, or instance, e" @elhi and /slaa$adlocated "ithin 300 iles o each other-V nuc)ear $u)ti-o)arit! against the back&ro o($u)ti)e. criss-crossing. sources o( tensionin the Middle Last (as o&&osed to the relativesi&licity o the 7S-Soviet conrontation.V the e=istence o( &octrines(such as /ndia's Zcold start'.an& (orce ostures(such as Pakistan's $roadenin array o $attle;eld nukes.'hich rest on thee=ectation o( ear)! useH the ro)e o( non-state actors as aggra%ating ortriggering (actors 'hen the! are ercei%e& as oerating 'ith theconni%ance o( an antagonist state( in the &ast, the assassination o the :ustrian :rchduke inSara6evo in 141AV in the uture, De!$ollah o&eratives launchin rockets "ith efect aainst /srael or =ashkar-e-Tai$a

    coandos doin a ZBo$ay' redu9 in /ndia. ) individually or in co$ination, these actors test crisis$anage$ent caabi)ities $ore se%ere)! than an!thing seen &uring theCo)& 9ar"ith the &artial e9ce&tion o the #u$an issile crisis+ Lven the overa$undant $attle;eld nucleararsenals in #old ar #entral Luro&e, "ith their ify "ea&ons' saety and security arraneents, "ere less o achallene) the 7S and Soviet short-rane nuclear "ea&ons so de&loyed "ere not &uttin 7S and Soviet territory and

    ca&itals at risk+ It $a! be argue& that these risk (actors are kno'nto &otentialrotagonistsan&that the!thereore 'i)) be )e& to a%oi& the sort o( nuc)earbrinks$anshi 'hich characterie& +S an& So%iet beha%ior &uring theCo)& 9arin crises such as the [orean "ar, Berlin, #u$a or the Oo [i&&ur "ar+ 7nortunately, the $u)ti)enuc)ear crises bet'een In&ia an& Pakistan &e$onstrate no such ru&ence.

    rather to the contrar!,:nd "ere such restraint to eed into nuclear &olicy and crisis &lannin alon thelines o a&&arently reater 7S and Soviet nuclear caution ro the id-Seventies on"ards-, the (act 'ou)&re$ain that initia) intent rare)! resists the strains o( a co$)e=. $u)ti-actor con(rontation bet'een inherent)! &istrust(u) antagonists,/t is also "orthre

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    ;cono$ic co))ase causes nuc)ear conicts*urro's an& 8arris 200Mathe" J+ Burro"s counselor in the ational /ntellience#ouncil and Jennier Darris a e$er o the /#'s =on ?ane :nalysis 7nit ?evisitin the 8uture)Yeo&olitical Lfects o the 8inancial #risis% The ashinton Guarterly 32)2htt&s)**csis+or*;les*&u$lication*t"W04a&ril$urro"sharris+&d/ncreased Potential or Ylo$al #on

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    these countries indeed turns in'ar&.one o the $ost ob%ious (un&ing targets $a!be $i)itar!+ *ui)&uo reional naval ca&a$ilities cou)& )ea& to increase& tensions,rivalries, and counterba)ancingoves, $ut it also "ill create o&&ortunities or ultinationalcoo&eration in &rotectin critical sea lanes+ ith "ater also $ecoin scarcer in :sia and the MiddleLast, coo&eration to anae chanin "ater resources is likely to $e increasinly diHcult $oth "ithinand $et"een states in a ore do-eat-do "orld+

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    1AC So(t Po'er A&%antage

    A&%antage 7777 " So(t Po'er

    A$erican so(t o'er is co))asing &ue to base)ess an&h!ocritica) o)icies )ike the Cuba e$bargo--- The af so)%es theke! interna) )inkPere 2010(@avid :+ Pere9, J+@+ Oale =a" Schoo, :ericas #u$a Policy) The ay 8or"ard) :Policy ?ecoendation or the 7+S+ State @e&artent,% S&rin, 2010, Darvard =atino =a" ?evie",=e9is.

    Anti-A$ericanis$ has beco$e the o)itica) chant &e 4our (or )ea&ersseeking )ong-ter$ as 'e)) as short-ter$ gains in 6atin A$erican e)ections,/n ene!uela, the anti-:erican rhetoric s&e"ed $y Duo #have! asks his other"ise autocratictendencies, "hile countries like Bolivia and Lcuador tilt urther a"ay ro ashinton, $othrhetorically and su$stantively+ The orer e9&elled the 7+S+ :$assador in cto$er 200I, and thelatter has reused to rene" ashintons lease on an air$ase traditionally used or counter-narcoticsissions+ The systeic nelect or eiht years durin the Bush :dinistration eant that &olitical

    ca&ital "as never seriously s&ent dealin "ith issues afectin the reion+ Because o this, PresidentBush "as una$le to et uch head"ay "ith his &ro&osal to reor iiration, and his ree tradeareeent "ith #olo$ia encountered sini;cant o&&osition in #onress+ ?ecent e9a&les o 7+S+unilateralis, disreard or international la" and nors, and a ro"in ;nancial crisis, have all $eensei!ed $y a ne" eneration o &o&ulist =atin :erican leaders "ho stoke anti-:erican sentient+

    The region. ho'e%er. is abso)ute)! critica) to our nationa) interest an&securit!, #%er thirt! ercent o( our oi) co$es (ro$ 6atin A$erica - $orethan the +,S, i$orts (ro$ the Mi&&)e ;ast,:dditionally, over hal o the orein-$orn&o&ulation in the 7nited States is =atin :erican, eanin that a sini;cant &ortion o :ericansociety is intrinsically tied to the reion+ 1 These iirants, as "ell as their sons and dauhters, have

    already $eun to take their &lace aonst :ericas social, cultural, and &olitical elite+ust southo( A$ericas bor&ers. a &eeening o)ariation is srea&ing throughoutthe entire region, In the )ast (e' !ears i&eo)ogica) a))ies in *o)i%ia.

    ;cua&or. an& Jeneue)a ha%e 'ritten an& aro%e& ne' constitutions thatha%e conso)i&ate& the o'er o( the e=ecuti%e. 'hi)e e=ten&ing - or inJeneue)as case e)i$inating - resi&entia) ter$ )i$its,/n ene!uela the&olari!ation has $een dra"n alon econoic lines, "here$y #have!s $ase o su&&ort continues to $e&oor ene!uelans+ /n Bolivia the &olari!ation has $een dra"n alon racial lines) the &rea$le to thene" Bolivian constitution, a&&roved in January 2004, akes reerence to the >disastrous colonialties,> a oent in history that Bolivians o :ndean-descent &articularly laent+ Those reions inBolivia "ith the ost &eo&le o Luro&ean or i9ed descent have consistently voted or increased&rovincial autonoy and aainst the constitutional chanes &ro&osed $y President Morales+ Perha&sdue to its s"ee&in chanes, the ne" #onstitution "as re6ected $y our o Bolivias nine &rovinces+ 2

    =ike Bolivia, =atin :erica is still searchin or its identity+ \]141^ Tra&itiona))! the +,S, hasro4ecte& its inuence b! using %ar!ing co$binations o( har& an& so(to'er, It has been a )ong ti$e since the +nite& States )ast sonsore& orsuorte& $i)itar! action in 6atin A$erica. an& a)though high)! conte=t-&een&ent. it is %er! )ike)! that 6atin A$erican citiens an& theirgo%ern$ents 'ou)& %ie' an! o%ert &is)a! o( A$erican har& o'er in theregion negati%e)!,3 ne can only iaine the odder an :erican ilitary e9cursion into =atin:erica "ould &rovide or a leader like Duo #have! o ene!uela, or Lvo Morales o Bolivia+ So(to'er. on the other han&. can 'in o%er eo)e an& go%ern$ents 'ithoutresorting to coercion, $ut is liited $y other actors+ The ke! to so(t o'er isnotsi&ly a stron ilitary, thouh havin one hel&s, $ut rather an en&uring sense o()egiti$ac! that can then be ro4ecte& across the g)obe to a&%ance

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    articu)ar o)icies,The key to this leitiacy is a ood iae and a re&utation as a res&onsi$leactor on the lo$al and reional stae+ A goo& reutation an& i$age can go a )ong'a! to'ar& generating goo&'i)). 'hich u)ti$ate)! 'i)) he) the +,S, 'henit tries to se)) unou)ar i&eas an& re(or$s in the region, In or&er toefecti%e)! e$)o! so(t o'er in 6atin A$erica. the +,S, $ust reair itsi$age b! going on a &i)o$atic ofensi%e an& re$in&ing, not 6ust =atin :ericasleaders, $ut also the 6atin A$erican eo)e. o( the i$ortant re)ationshibet'een the +,S, an& 6atin A$erica,Many o the rob)e$s (acing 6atinA$erica to&a! cannot be a&&resse& in the absence o( +,S, )ea&ershi an&cooeration,orkin "ith other nations to address these challenes is the $est "ay to shore u&leitiacy, earn res&ect, and re&air :ericas iae+ :lthouh this &ro&osal ocuses heavily on #u$a,every country in =atin :erica is a &otential riend+ ashinton "ill have to not only strenthen itse9istin relationshi&s in the reion, $ut also "in over ne" allies, "ho look to us or >ideas and

    solutions, not lectures+> C 9hen ana)!ing ecos!ste$s. en%iron$enta) scientistsseek out ke!stone secies , These are organis$s that. &esite their s$a))sie. (unction as )!nchins (or. or baro$eters o(. the entire s!ste$sstabi)it!, Cuba. &esite its sie an& iso)ation. is a ke!stone nation in 6atinA$erica. ha%ing &isroortionate)! &o$inate& 9ashingtons o)ic! to'ar&

    the region (or &eca&es,5 :s a result o its continuin tensions "ith Davana, :ericasre&utation \]142^ in the reion has sufered, as has its a$ility to deal "ith other countries+ @orF(t! !ears. 6atin A$erican go%ern$ents that hoe& to en&ear the$se)%esto the +,S, ha& to ass the Cuba )it$us test,But no" the ta$les have turned, andthe $aa :dinistration, i it "ants to re&air :ericas iae in the reion, "ill have to &ass a #u$alitus test o its o"n+ I /n short, :erica ust once aain $e adired i "e are oin to e9&ect other

    countries to ollo" our e9a&le+ To that end, 'ar$ing re)ations 'ith Cuba 'ou)& ha%ea re%erberating efect throughout 6atin A$erica. an& 'ou)& go a )ong 'a!to'ar& creating goo&'i)),

    So(t o'er so)%es )aun&r! )ist o( g)oba) rob)e$s an& isnecessar! to sustain A$erican ri$ac!

    6agon 2011(Mark P+ =aon, /nternational ?elations and Security #hair at Yeoreto"n7niversitys Master o Science in 8orein Service Prora and ad6unct senior ello" at the #ouncil on8orein ?elations, Se&te$er*cto$er 2011, The alue o alues) Sot Po"er 7nder $aa,% orld:fairs Journal, htt&)**"""+"orldafairs6ournal+or*article*value-values-sot-&o"er-under-o$aa.

    Desite )arge econo$ic cha))enges. t'o rotracte& $i)itar! e=e&itions.an& the rise o( China. In&ia. *rai). an& other ne' )a!ers on theinternationa) scene. the +nite& States sti)) has an unri%a)e& abi)it! tocon(ront terroris$ . nuc)ear ro)i(eration . Fnancia) instabi)it! . an&e$ic

    &isease . $ass atrocit! . or t!rann! ,:lthouh ar ro oni&otent, the + nite&

    S tates is sti)), as orer Secretary o State Madeleine :l$riht called it, Kthe in&isensib)e

    nation,L So(t o'er is crucia) to sustaining an& best )e%eraging this ro)eas cata)!st,

    That Presi&ent #ba$a shou)& ha%e e=c)u&e& it (ro$ his %ision o( A$erica>s(oreign o)ic! assets&articularly in the key cases o /ran, ?ussia, and Ly&tsuggeststhat he (ee)s the countr! has so &ec)ine&. not on)! in rea) o'er but in theo'er o( e=a$)e. that it )acks the $ora) authorit! to ro4ect so(t o'er ,In the 10s. $an! a)so consi&ere& the +S in &ec)ine as it gra)e& 'ithcounterinsurgenc! in (ara'a! )an&s. a crisis &ue to econo$ic stagnation.an& re)iance on (oreign oi),=ike $aa, Denry [issiner tried to anae decline in "hat hesa" as a ulti&olar "orld, dressin u& &rescri&tions or &olicy as descri&tions o iuta$le reality+ Inthe 10s. ho'e%er. so(t o'er )a!e& a crucia) art in a turnaroun& (or

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    +S (oreign o)ic!,:&&lyin it, President 5eagan sought to transcen& a nuc)earba)ance o( terror 'ith &e(ensi%e techno)ogies. ushe& a))ies in the Co)&9ar(e++, Ll Salvador, #hile, Tai"an, South [orea, and the Phili&&ines. to )ibera)ie (or theiro'n goo&. backe& )abor $o%e$ents oose& to Co$$unists in Po)an& an&Centra) A$erica. an& ca))e& (or the *er)in 9a)) to be torn &o'nOo%er@ogg! *otto$ ob4ections+ This sy$olis not only $oosted the &erce&tion and the reality o7S in

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    to channe) or )i$it their acti%ities in 'a!s it re(ers. it $a! not nee& as$an! cost)! carrots an& sticks.

    8ar& o'er is insucient?a))arotti 2013(Yiulio Yallarotti, Proessor o Yovernent esleyan 7niversity @e&artent oYovernent John :ndrus #enter or Pu$lic :fairs, 8e$ruary 12, 2013, Sart Po"er) "hat it is, "hy it's

    i&ortant, and the conditions or its efective use,% esleyan 7niversity, oole.8irst, the costs o( using or e%en threatening (orce a$ong nuc)ear o'ersha%e sk!rockete&,/ndeed, current leadin scholarshi& in the ;eld o security has &roclaiedthat the nuc)ear re%o)ution has been instru$enta) in creating a ne' age o(a Ksecurit! co$$unit!.L in 'hich 'ar bet'een $a4or o'ers is a)$ostunthinkab)e$ecause the costs o "ar have $ecoe too reat (Jervis 14II, 1443, 2002.+ Mueller(14II. reinorces and odi;es the nuclear deterrent aruent $y introducin the inde&endent

    deterrent o conventional "ar in an ae o advanced technoloy+ /n short, the uti)it! o(res&ect,adiration and coo&eration (i+e+, so(t o'er. has increase& re)ati%e to the uti)it! o(coercion 'ith resect to the use(u)ness o( the instru$ents o( statecra(t,Moreo%er. the e=orbitant &angers that the har& resources o( $i)itar!techno)og! ha%e ro&uce& reEuire (ar greater use o( the instru$ents o(

    so(t o'er in or&er (or nations to achie%e sustainab)e securit! in the )ongrun,

    +S hege$on! so)%es esca)ation o( g)oba) hotsots- &ec)inecauses hotsots to esca)ate 'or)&'i&e*reinski 2012F$inie" [+ Br!e!inski (#S/S counselor and trustee and cochairs the #S/S:dvisory Board+ De is also the ?o$ert L+ sood Proessor o :erican 8orein Policy at the School o:dvanced /nternational Studies, Johns Do&kins 7niversity, in ashinton, @+#+ De is cochair o the:erican #oittee or Peace in the #aucasus and a e$er o the /nternational :dvisory Board othe :tlantic #ouncil+ De is a orer chairan o the :erican-7krainian :dvisory #oittee+ De "as ae$er o the Policy Plannin #ouncil o the @e&artent o State ro 1455 to 145IV chairan o theDu&hrey 8orein Policy Task 8orce in the 145I &residential ca&ainV director o the Trilateral#oission ro 143 to 145V and &rinci&al orein &olicy adviser to Jiy #arter in the 145

    &residential ca&ain+ 8ro 14 to 14I1, @r+ Br!e!inski "as national security adviser to PresidentJiy #arter+ /n 14I1, he "as a"arded the Presidential Medal o 8reedo or his role in thenorali!ation o 7+S+-#hina relations and or his contri$utions to the huan rihts and nationalsecurity &olicies o the 7nited States+ De "as also a e$er o the President's #heical arare#oission (14IC., the ational Security #ouncil@eense @e&artent #oission on /nterated=on-Ter Stratey (14I14II., and the President's 8orein /ntellience :dvisory Board (14I14I4.+/n 14II, he "as cochairan o the Bush ational Security :dvisory Task 8orce, and in 200A, he "ascochairan o a #ouncil on 8orein ?elations task orce that issued the re&ort /ran) Tie or a e":&&roach+ @r+ Br!e!inski received a B+:+ and M+:+ ro McYill 7niversity (14A4, 14C0. and Ph+@+ roDarvard 7niversity (14C3.+ De "as a e$er o the aculties o #olu$ia 7niversity (145014I4. andDarvard 7niversity (14C31450.+ @r+ Br!e!inski holds honorary derees ro Yeoreto"n 7niversity,illias #ollee, 8ordha 7niversity, #ollee o the Doly #ross, :lliance #ollee, the #atholic7niversity o =u$lin, arsa" 7niversity, and ilnius 7niversity+ De is the reci&ient o nuerous honorsand a"ards. 8e$ruary 2012 :ter :erica%htt&)**"""+orein&olicy+co*articles*2012*01*03*aterRaerica&aeQ0,0

    8or i( A$erica (a)ters, the "orld is unlikely to $e doinated $y a sinle &reeinent successor -- not even#hina+ /nternational uncertainty, increase& tensionaon lo$al co&etitors, an&even outrihtchaos'ou)& bear ore )ike)!outcoes+ hile a sudden, assive crisis o the :erican syste -- orinstance, another ;nancial crisis -- "ould &roduce a ast-ovin chain reaction leadin to lo$al &olitical and

    econoic disorder. a stea&! &ri(t b! A$erica intoincreasinly &ervasive &eca!or endlessly"idenin "arare "ith /sla 'ou)& be un)ike)! to ro&uce, even $y 202C, an efecti%eg)oba) successor+ o sinle &o"er "ill $e ready $y then to e9ercise the role that the "orld, u&on the all othe Soviet 7nion in 1441, e9&ected the 7nited States to &lay) the leader o a ne", lo$ally coo&erative "orld order+

    More robab)e 'ou)& be a rotracte& hase o( rather inconc)usi%e

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    rea)ign$ents o( both g)oba) an& regiona) o'er. 'ith no rand 'inners an&$an! $ore )osers. in a setting o( internationa) uncertaint! an& e%en o(otentia))! (ata) risks to g)oba) 'e))-being+ ?ather than a "orld "here dreas o deocracy

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    the hea)th an& goo& 4u&g$ent o( the +,S, econo$ic an& o)itica) s!ste$s,A 'aning +nite& States 'ou)& )ike)! be $ore nationa)istic. $ore &e(ensi%eabout its nationa) i&entit!. $ore aranoi& about its ho$e)an& securit!.an& )ess 'i))ing to sacriFce resources (or the sake o( others &e%e)o$ent+The "orsenin o relations $et"een a declinin :erica and an internally trou$led Me9ico could even ive rise to a&articularly oinous &henoenon) the eerence, as a a6or issue in nationalistically aroused Me9ican &olitics, o

    territorial clais 6usti;ed $y history and inited $y cross-$order incidents+ Another conseEuence o(A$erican &ec)ine cou)& be a corrosion o( the genera))! cooerati%e$anage$ent o( the g)oba) co$$ons-- share& interests such as sea )anes.sace. c!bersace. an& the en%iron$ent. 'hose rotection is i$erati%eto the )ong-ter$ gro'th o( the g)oba) econo$! an& the continuation o(basic geoo)itica) stabi)it!, /n alost every case, the otentia) absence o( aconstructi%e an& inuentia) +,S, ro)e 'ou)& (ata))! un&er$ine the essentia)co$$una)it! o( the g)oba) co$$ons because the sueriorit! an& ubiEuit!o( A$erican o'er creates or&er 'here there 'ou)& nor$a))! be conict+one o this "ill necessarily coe to &ass+ or is the concern that :ericas decline "ould enerate lo$alinsecurity, endaner soe vulnera$le states, and &roduce a ore trou$led orth :erican neih$orhood anaruent or 7+S+ lo$al su&reacy+ /n act, the strateic co&le9ities o the "orld in the 21st century ake suchsu&reacy unattaina$le+ But those dreain today o :ericas colla&se "ould &ro$a$ly coe to reret it+ :nd as

    the 'or)& a(ter A$erica 'ou)& be increasing)! co$)icate& an& chaotic.it isi&erative that the 7nited States &ursue a ne", tiely strateic vision or its orein &olicy -- or start $racin itselor a danerous slide into lo$al turoil+

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    1AC So)%enc!

    Contention 2" So)%enc!

    6i(t the e$bargo--- it>s not 'orking an!'a!*an&o' 2012(@ou Bando", senior ello" at the #ato /nstitute and a orer s&ecial assistantto orer 7S &resident ?onald ?eaan, @ece$er 11, 2012, Tie to Lnd the #u$a L$aro,% #:T/nstitute, htt&)**"""+cato+or*&u$lications*coentary*tie-end-cu$a-e$aro.

    It is (ar ast ti$e to en& the e$bargo, During the Co)& 9ar. Cuba ofere&a otentia) a&%ance& $i)itar! outost (or the So%iet +nion, In&ee&. thatro)e )e& to the Cuban $issi)e crisis,ith the ailure o the 7+S+-su&&orted Bay o Pisinvasion, econoic &ressure a&&eared to $e ashinton's $est stratey or oustin the #astro

    dictatorshi&+ 8o'e%er. the en& o( the Co)& 9ar )e(t Cubastrategica))!

    irre)e%ant+ It is a oor countr! 'ith )itt)e abi)it! to har$ the +nite& States,The Castro regi$e $ight sti)) encourage unrest. but its sur%i%a) has no$easurab)e i$act on an! i$ortant +,S, interest,The reie reains ahuanitarian travesty, o course+ or are #u$ans the only victis) three years ao the reie 6ailed a

    State @e&artent contractor or distri$utin satellite tele&hone eWui&ent in #u$a+ But Davana is notthe only reie to violate huan rihts+ Moreover, e9&erience has lon deonstrated that it isvirtually i&ossi$le or outsiders to orce deocracy+ ashinton oten has used sanctions and theHce o 8orein :ssets #ontrol currently is enorcin around 20 such &roras, ostly to little efect+

    The o)ic! in Cuba ob%ious)! has (ai)e&, The regi$e re$ains in o'er,In&ee&. it has consistent)! use& the e$bargo to 4usti(! its o'n$is$anage$ent. b)a$ing o%ert! on A$erica,$served Secretary o State Dillary#linton) /t is y &ersonal $elie that the Castros &o not 'ant to see an en& to thee$bargo an& &o not 'ant to see nor$a)iation 'ith the +nite& States.because the! 'ou)& )ose a)) o( their e=cuses (or 'hat hasn>t haene& inCuba in the )ast R0 !ears,LSiilarly, #u$an e9ile #arlos Saladrias o the #u$a Study Yrou&arued that kee&in the e$aro, aintainin this hostility, all it does is strenthen and e$oldenthe hardliners+%

    P)an so)%es i$$e&iate)!8o)$es 2010(Y+ Doles, M: ro Yeoreto"n, SL/F/Y TDL MMLT,%htt&s)**re&ository+li$rary+eoreto"n+edu*$itstrea*handle*10I22*CC333A*holesMichael+&dseWuenceQ1.

    @ro$ an i$age stan& oint re&ealin the sanctions and re$o%ing the e$bargo iss!$bo)ic,It sho's Cuba an& the 'or)& that a)though the +nite& States isro &e$ocrac!. it &oes not 'ish to i$ose its %a)ueson other nations+ The #u$a@eocracy :ct "as an atte&t to orce deocratic chanes in #u$a+10 *! reea)ing the act the+nited States, i))ustrates that it resects the so%ereignt! o( nations+ #onsiderin thatthis :ct did allo" or the a&&lication o 7+S+ la" in a orein country11, reea)ing it not on)! sen&sthe $essage about +,S, %ie's on so%ereignt! but a)so sho's that the

    a&$inistration is taking stes to ensure that so%ereignt! is actua))!resecte&+5eea)ingthe 8e)$s-*urton=a" 'i))certainly sti$u)ate (oreign in%est$ent inCubaas "ell+ Many orein countries "ere leery o investin in #u$a out o ear o $ein sued or losin &ro&ertyunder the &rovisions esta$lished $y the Dels-Burton :ct+12 This return o( (oreign in%est$ent'i)) (urther secure Cubas )ace in the g)oba) $arket)ace, It also 'i))hel& tosi)ence sketics 'ho 'i)) Euestion +,S, intentions+ Since the sanctions aainst #u$a "ereunilateral 7+S+ actions, an unsolicited chane in course "ill undou$tedly s&ark s&eculation+ A))o'ing a))

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    countries to in%est in Cuba again un&erscores the +nite& States ositiono( &esiring (or a)) countries to articiate in the g)oba) $arket )ace+ It is

    &icu)t to i$agine that the beneFts o( )i(ting the e$bargo 'i)) not be

    i$$e&iate an& substantia) in regar&s to the +nite& States reutation in

    the 'or)&, =ookin at the lon-ter $ene;ts o reovin the sanctions, the t"o $ene;ts that stand out theost are trade and uel+

    Af is restores 6atin A$erica re)ations an& internationa)cre&ibi)it!Pascua) 200(#arlos Pascual, ice &resident and @irector o 8orein &olicy The Brookinsinstitution, and icki Duddleston, isitin 8ello" The Brookins institution, :&ril 2004, #7B:) : e"&olicy o #ritical and #onstructive Lnaeent,% Brookins,htt&)**"""+$rookins+edu*_*edia*research*;les*re&orts*2004*A*cu$a*0A13Rcu$a+&d.

    +,S, o)ic! to'ar& Cuba shou)& a&%ance the &e$ocratic asirations o( theCuban eo)e an& strengthen +,S, cre&ibi)it! throughout the he$i- shere,#ur near)! R0-!ear o)& o)ic! to'ar& Cuba has (ai)e& on both counts" it has

    resu)te& in a &o'n'ar& sira) o( +,S, inuence on the is- )an& an& has )e(tthe +nite& States iso)ate& in the he$ishere an& be!on&, #ur Cuba o)ic!

    has beco$e a be))'ether . in&icating the e=tent to 'hich the +nite& States'i)) act in artnershi 'ith the region or uni)atera))!Oan& inefectua))!,inevita- $ly, strateic contact and dialoue "ith the #u$an overnent "ill $e necessary i the 7nitedStates seeks to enae the #u$an &eo&le+This &a&er &ro&oses a ne" oal or 7+S+ &olicy to- "ard#u$a) to su&&ort the eerence o a #u$an state "here the #u$an &eo&le deterine the &olit- ical

    and econoic uture o their country throuh deocratic eans+ : reat lesson o &e$ocrac!isthat it cannot be i$ose&H it $ust co$e (ro$ 'ithinV the ty&e o overnent at thehel o the island's uture "ill de&end on #u$ans+ #ur o)ic! shou)& there(oreenco&assthe &olitical, eco- noic, and di&loatic tools to enab)e the Cuban eo)e to engage inan& &irect the o)itics o( their countr!,This &olicy "ill advance the interests o the

    7nited States in seekin sta$le relationshi&s $ased on coon heis&heric values that &ro- ote the"ell-$ein o each individual and the ro"th o civil society+ To enae the #u$an ov- ernent and#u$an &eo&le efectively, the 7nited States "ill need to enae "ith other overn- ents, the &rivatesector, and non-overnental orani!ations (Ys.+ in so doin, 7+S+ &olicy to"ard #u$a "ould res (uture. it $ust not in&u)ge inhosti)e rhetoric nor obstruct a &ia)ogue on issues that 'ou)& a&%ance&e$ocrac!. 4ustice. an& hu$an rights as 'e)) as our broa&er nationa)interests,&erversely, the o)ic! o( seeking to iso- )ate Cuba, rather than achievin itso$6ective, has contribute& to un&er$ining the 'e))-being o( the Cuban eo)e

    an& to ero&ing +,S, inuence in Cuba an& 6atin A$erica,/t has reinorced the#u$an overnent's &o"er over its citi!ens $y increasin their de&endence on it or every as&ect otheir livelihood+ By slo"in the

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    Inherenc!/So)%enc!

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    6atin A$erica A&%antage

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    recent chanes have &rooundly afected /nter-:erican relations + 9hi)e re)ations are to&a!cor&ia) an& )arge)! (ree o( the antagonis$s o( the ast. the! a)so see$'ithout %igor an& urose ,Lfective coo&eration in the :ericas, "hether to deal "ithurent &ro$les or to take advantae o ne" o&&ortunities, has $een disa&&ointin +The /nter-:erican @ialoue's re&ort is a call to all nations o the hei- s&here to take stock, to re$uildcoo&eration, and to resha&e relations in a ne" direction + :ll overnents in the heis&here should $eore attentive to eerin o&&ortunities or ruitul colla$oration on lo$al and reional issuesranin across econoic interation, enery security, &rotection o deocracy, and cliate chane +The 7nited States ust reain its cred- i$ility in the reion $y dealin seriously "ith an un;nishedaenda o &ro$lesincludin iiration, drus, and #u$athat stands in the "ay o a real

    &artnershi& + To do so, it needs the hel& o =atin :erica and the #ari$$ean + I( the currentstate o( afairs continues. the strain bet'een the +nite& States an& 6atinA$erica cou)& 'orsen. a&%erse)! afecting the interests an& 'e))- being o(a)) in the he$ishere , There is a great &ea) at stake ,This re&ort ofers a realisticassessent o the relationshi& "ithin a chanin reional and lo$al conte9t and sets out an aendao old and ne" $usiness that need urent attention + : colla$orative efort should $ein iediately atthe si9th Suit o the :ericas in #artaena, #olo$ia +

    No' is the ke! to nor$a)ie re)ations

    Ashb! 2013(@r+ Tiothy :sh$y, Senior ?esearch 8ello" at the #ouncil on Deis&heric :fairs,March 24, 2013, Preservin Sta$ility in #u$a :ter orali!in ?elations "ith the 7nited States The/&ortance o Tradin "ith State-"ned Lnter&rises,% #D:, htt&)**"""+coha+or*&reservin-sta$ility-in-cu$a-tiothy-ash$y*Esthash+70nr@oiW+d&u

    Cuba un&er 5a) Castro has entere& a ne' erio& o( econo$ic. socia). an&o)itica) trans(or$ation, 5e(or$s institute& 'ithin the ast (e' !ears ha%ebrought the e=ansion o( ri%ate sector entrereneuria) acti%it!. inc)u&ing)i(ting restrictions on the sa)es o( resi&entia) rea) estate. auto$obi)es. an&e)ectronic goo&s,:dditional reors included, ore than a illion hectares o idle land has $eenleased to &rivate arers, "here citi!ens have $een ranted &erission to stay in hotels &reviouslyreserved or tourists, and reedo $ein ranted or ost #u$ans to travel a$road+ Statin that it "astie or the radual transer% o key roles to ne" enerations,% President ?aUl #astro announcedthat he "ill retire $y 201I, and naed as his &ossi$le successor a an "ho "as not even $orn at the

    tie o the #u$an ?evolution+ \1^ The t'i)ight o( the Castro era resents cha))engesan& oortunities (or +,S, o)ic! $akers, Nor$a)iation o( re)ations isine%itab)e. regar&)ess o( ti$ing. !et e=terna) an& interna) (actors $a!acce)erate or retar& the rocess, The &eath o( Jeneue)an Presi&ent 8ugoChB%e is )ike)! to un&er$ine the a)rea&! &!s(unctiona) Cuban econo$!, iit leads to reductions in oil i&orts and other ors o aid+ This cou)& bring socia) chaos.esecia))! a$ong the is)an&>s &isafecte& !outh, Such an outco$e 'ou)&generate a&%erse conseEuences (or +,S, nationa) an& regiona) securit!, To$aintain Cuba>s socia) an& econo$ic stabi)it!"hile reors are aturin, the+nite& States $ust thro' itse)( oen to unrestricte& bi)atera) tra&e 'itha)) Cuban enterrises. both ri%ate an& state-o'ne&,

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    5e)ations +niEueness--- No' Qe!

    Af so)%es. no' ke!*arnes 2013(Michael @+ Barnes, re&resented Maryland in the Douse o ?e&resentatives as a@eocrat ro 144 to 14I, servin as chairan o the Douse Su$coittee on esternDeis&here :fairs, senior ello" at the #enter or /nternational Policy in ashinton, March A, 2013,Tie is ri&e or a ne" a&&roach to #u$a,% Baltiore Sun, htt&)**articles+$altioresun+co*2013-03-0A*ne"s*$s-ed-cu$a-2013030AR1Rcu$a-Wuestion-current-cu$a-&olicy-orein-&olicy.

    There is one internationa) issue. ho'e%er. on 'hich genuine rogress isnot on)! ossib)e but is )ike)! O i( the secretar! o( state an& Presi&ent*arack #ba$a are reare& to $ake this issue a (oreign o)ic! riorit!,nly 40 iles ro :ericas shores is the sall nation o #u$a, "hich today &oses no ilitary oreconoic threat to the 7nited States $ut is a continuin reinder o ore than C0 years o ailure $y@eocratic and ?e&u$lican adinistrations to achieve our stated o$6ective o osterin deocratic

    chane+ #ur current Cuba o)ic! is an irritant in our re)ations 'ith $an!(rien&s in this he$ishere 'ho be)ie%e the o)ic! o( atte$te& iso)ation o(Cuba has been counterro&ucti%e, ur State @e&artent has essentially $een inoredthat there "ill never $e another suit o heis&heric leaders i #u$a is not included+ Secretar!Qerr! 'i)) re$e$berthe central role he &layed in the norali!ation o relations "ith ietna$y President Bill #linton in the 1440s, and ho' nor$a)iing re)ations 'ith a co$$unisterst'hi)e (oe can be a 'in-'in,Most "ill aree that the &olitics o ietna "ere even oreco&le9, &articularly "ith the eotionally linerin P and M/: issue, than 7+S+-#u$a &olitics+ / aadvocatin a series o enaeents "ith #u$a on issues o utual concern+ Both countries areconcerned a$out dru traHckin, environental issues (includin hurricane trackin., iration, anddevelo&ent o &otentially lucrative oil and as reserves in the 8lorida Straits+ ?ecently, / heard#u$as senior re&resentative in ashinton, :$assador Jose #a$anas, s&eak "ith considera$le loica$out ho" his country could coo&erate "ith the 7nited States on enery &roduction, "hich is no"$ein 6oint-ventured $y #u$a "ith co&anies ro any other countries, "hile our enery co&aniesare &rohi$ited ro &artici&atin+ De noted that an oil s&ill, or e9a&le, of the coast o #u$a "ouldafect not only #u$a $ut alost iediately South 8lorida as "ell+The 7nited States has had inoralcontacts "ith #u$ans on these and other utual concerns+ / a &ro&osin that the $aaadinistration, "ith the secretary o state takin the lead, ove Wuickly to orali!e arraneentsthat "ill serve the unWuestioned interests o $oth countries+ #u$an oHcials have indicated they are"illin to do so, and "e should test this assertion "ithout &reconditions+ :lthouh / do not &ro&oseseekin iediate norali!ation o relations "ith #u$a, that could "ell $e the ultiate result o the

    &hased ste&s / a advocatin+ The o)itica) )an&scae on the Cuba Euestion isshi(ting, About ha)( o( the Cuban-A$erican %ote in @)ori&a in 2012 'ent (orPresi&ent #ba$a, :n encourain re&ort eered in recent days that the State @e&artent isconsiderin reovin #u$a ro its list o state s&onsors o terroris+ Man! o( the issues ournation $ust con(ront see$ a)$ost be!on& so)ution, In our o'n (ront !ar&is one issue O oening the &oor to better re)ations 'ith Cuba O that cou)&achie%e the sa$e kin& o( success that Presi&ent C)inton an& then-SenatorQerr! achie%e& in Jietna$ )ess than t'o &eca&es ago,

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    5e)ations +niEueness--- A2 #ba$a Aea)

    Desite rhetoric he$isheric re)ations are ba&6AP 2011(=atin :erican Pers&ectives Lditorial Board, &eer-revie"ed acadeic 6ournal a$out=atin :erica, May 11, 2011, @anerous #o&lacencies ) $aa, =atin :erica, and theMisconce&tions o Po"er,% Sae&u$.

    Meeting 'ith the resi&ents o( 6atin A$ericaat the 8ith Suit o the :ericas inTrinidad in:&ril 200. *arack #ba$a )e&ge& to recast re)ations 'ith theregion,:ter years o hostile dealins "ith Yeore + Bush, 6atin A$ericans eager)!)ooke& (or'ar& to a ne' era o( re)ations 'ith the +nite& States an&'e)co$e& #ba$a>s &ec)aration that Ke%er! one o( our nations has a rightto (o))o' its o'n athL an& his )e&ge to engage the rest o( the he$i-shere on the basis o( K$utua) resect an& eEua)it!,L:t the hal"ay &oint in his;rst ter, ho"ever, there is )itt)e to &istinguish #ba$a (ro$ his re&eces- sor?eorge 9, *ush(reconi!ed even in ainstrea analysis such as Ti Padett's coent a&&raisalin Tie \2004^.+1 The ro$ise o( #ba$a>s rhetoric in Trinidad (ai)e& to $ateria)iein concrete o)iciesand, in retros&ect, ay have $een a "ay to de

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    5e$o%ing ;$bargo So)%es 5e)ations

    Af has trans(or$ati%e efect on re)ations*an&o' 2012(@ou Bando", senior ello" at the #ato /nstitute and a orer s&ecial assistantto orer 7S &resident ?onald ?eaan, @ece$er 11, 2012, Tie to Lnd the #u$a L$aro,% #:T/nstitute, htt&)**"""+cato+or*&u$lications*coentary*tie-end-cu$a-e$aro.

    Cuba o)ic! shou)& be a ressing issue (or the #ba$a a&$inistrationbecause it ofers a uniEue oortunit! (or the resi&ent to trans(or$ our

    re)ations 'ith the he$ishere ,Lven asliht shi(ta"ay ro hostility toengage$ent 'i)) er$it the +nite& States to 'ork $ore c)ose)! 'ith theregion to efecti%e)! a&%ance a co$$on agen&a to"ard #u$a+ By announcin a&olicy o critical and constructive enaeent at the :&ril Suit o the :ericas in Trinidad andTo$ao, the &resident can &rove that he has $een listenin to the reion+ De can under- line thiscoitent $y reovin all restrictions on travel and reittances on #u$an :ericans, and enain

    in dialoue "ith the reie, as &ro- ised durin his ca&ain+ *! reciroca))! i$ro%ingour &i)o$atic re)ations 'ith Cuba. 'e 'i)) enhance our un&erstan&ing o(the is)an&. its eo)e. an& its )ea&ers,Do"ever, "hile these easures "ill &roote

    understandin, i&rove the lives o &eo&le on the island, and $uild su&&ort or a ne" relation- shi&$et"een our countries, they are insuHcient to ensure the chanes needed to result in noral di&-loatic relations over tie+ i the &resident is to advance 7+S+ interests and &rinci&les, he "ill need a

    ne" &olicy and a lon- ter strateic vision or 7+S+ relations "ith #u$a+ I( he is reare& to&iscar& the (ai)e& o)ic! o( regi$e change an& a&ot one o( critica) an&con- structi%e engage$ent. he an& his a&$inistration 'i)) )a! the(oun&ations (or a ne' aroach to- 'ar& Cuba an& the 6atin A$erica,likehis &re- decessors, &resident #ba$a has the authorit! tosu$stantially odiy e$aroreulations in order to advance a &olicy o enaeent that "ould $roaden and dee&en contacts "iththe #u$an &eo&le and their overnent+ De has the &o&ular su&&ortdoestic and internationalto

    enae #u$a, and, $y so doin, to staunch our &i$inishing inuence on the is)an&an& recature the high roa& in our re)ations 'ith the he$ishere,

    6i(ting the e$bargo so)%es re)ationsCurtain 200(Jose&h + #urtain, M: aval Postraduate School, June 200I, L#M/# :@SL#7?/TO ?L:SS DO TDL 7+S+ SD7=@ ?M:=/FL ?L=:T/S /TD #7B:,%htt&)**"""+dtic+il*ci-$in*YetT?@oc:@Q:@:AI3C41.

    8o' can the +,S, $ini$ie the triangu)ar threat ose& b! Iran. Jeneue)aan& CubaUDo" can this cycle o de&endency, control and &o"er $e $roken Pro$a$ly one o(the easiest so)utions is nor$a)iing re)ations 'ith Cuba,The 7+S+ could $e&rocessin nickel or drillin or oil in #u$a+ The +,S, cou)& easi)! surass the ;,+, an&China an& )ea& a)) other countries in aggregate tra&e 'ith Cuba, 9ith +,S,caita) o'ing through the Cuban econo$!. it cou)& in ti$e re)ace Cuba>s&een&enc! on Jeneue)a an& thereb! efecti%e)! negate Cha%e>sinuence,Yiven norali!ed relations "ith #u$a, i #have! "ere a$le to create a ene!uelan-#u$an

    conederation, it "ould $e in nae only $ecause the 7+S+ could re&lace ene!uela as its $eneactor+An& b! nor$a)iing re)ations 'ith Cuba. the triangu)ar threat 'ou)& be$ini$ie& to iso)ate& an& searate threats (ro$ Iran an& Jeneue)a,

    Af ke! to 6atin A$erica re)ationsShi(ter 2012(Michael Shiter, President o /nter-:erican @ialoue, :&ril 2012, ?eakin the?elationshi&) The 7nited States and =atin :erica,% /:@ Policy ?e&ort,htt&)**"""+thedialoue+or*Pu$lication8iles*/:@2012Policy?e&ort8/:=+&d.

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    Cuba, too, oses a signiFcant cha))enge (or re)ations bet'een the +nite&States an& 6atin A$erica , The R0-!ear-o)& +S e$bargo against Cuba isright)! criticie& throughout the he$ishere as a (ai)e& an& uniti%einstru$ent , It has )ong been a strain on +S-6atin A$erican re)ations ,:lthouh the 7nited States has recently oved in the riht direction and taken ste&s to rela9

    restrictions on travel to #u$a, 9ashington nee&s to &o (ar $ore to &is$ant)e its

    se%ere. out&ate& constraints on nor$a)ie& re)ations 'ith Cuba ,Cuba isone o( the resi&ua) issues that $ost obstructs $ore efecti%e +S-6atinA$erican engage$ent , :t the sae tie, #u$a's authoritarian reie should $e o utostconcern to all countries in the :ericas + :t &resent, it is the only country "ithout ree, ulti-&artyelections, and its overnent ully controls the &ress + =atin :erican and #ari$$ean nations could $e

    instruental in su&&ortin #u$a's eventual transition to deocratic rule + An en& to the +So)ic! o( iso)ating Cuba, "ithout settin aside 7S concern a$out huan rihts viola- tions,'ou)& be an i$ortant Frst ste ,

    Af ke! to integrating the 'estern he$ishere6AP 2011(=atin :erican Pers&ectives Lditorial Board, &eer-revie"ed acadeic 6ournal a$out

    =atin :erica, May 11, 2011, @anerous #o&lacencies ) $aa, =atin :erica, and theMisconce&tions o Po"er,% Sae&u$.

    The +nite& States nee&s to concetua)ie a ne'. 'in-'in re)ationshi 'ith6atin A$erica, In the ear)! histor! o( 6atin A$erica the 'inners 'ere;uroean co)onia)ists an& then )ater North A$erican cororations an&their )oca) &o$inant- c)ass a))ies,The orth souht to &rotect uneWual e9chane "ith a&o"erul ilitary and a secret #/: intervention a&&aratus+ The asses o =atin :erica &aid the &ricein &overty and huan rihts a$uses+ Today, ho"ever, =atin :ericans are claiin a ore eWualsituation+ : civili!ed 7+S+ =atin :erican &olicy cannot $e achieved "ith inor chanes in reional&olicy &atterned on the $iotry and conceit o the &ast or $e ored in isolation in oHces inashinton+ The ilitary interventions, cou&s, and desta$ili!ation &roras, "hether i&leented $ythe #/: or the ational Lndo"ent or @eocracy, to overthro" nationalist reies ust $ea$andoned+ The e9tensive #/: a&&a- ratus inside =atin :erican countries ust $e disantled+ alon

    "ith re&res- sive indoctrination &roras that unction "ithin the 7nited States+ Mutua)it! in

    &ecision $aking an& e=erience sharing are nee&e&, Inter- nationa) o)ic!shou)& beco$e a he$isheric en&ea%or, It shou)& not continue to be$ost)! a +,S, thrust in the (ace o( a 'eak 6atin A$erica,#ollective &olicy akinay reWuire ne" institutions and a ne" "ill to succeed+ 8or e9a- &le, a echanis could $eesta$lished to &roduce a Social #harter o the :ericas that orali!es a coitent to huan rihtsand core la$or standards+ Such collective &olicy akin also reWuires a ore orali!ed syste ordeli$eratin on &u$lic &olicy, one that includes su$stantial ech- aniss, such as those &rooted $ythe orld Social 8oru, or $rinin toether rassroots oveents and sharin local overnent

    initiatives in a reulari!ed "ay+ The 9estern 8e$ishere cou)& stri%e (or the;uroean +nion $o&e) o( the $o%e$ent o( )abor across nationa) bor&ersa)ong 'ith goo&s. ser%ices. an& caita),

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    5e$o%ing ;$bargo So)%es 5e)ations--- A2 5egiona)Inuences

    6i(ting e$bargo ke! to ofset Jeneue)an inuence

    Curtain 200(Jose&h + #urtain, M: aval Postraduate School, June 200I, L#M/# :@SL#7?/TO ?L:SS DO TDL 7+S+ SD7=@ ?M:=/FL ?L=:T/S /TD #7B:,%htt&)**"""+dtic+il*ci-$in*YetT?@oc:@Q:@:AI3C41.

    hat does the e$aro have to do "ith it The short ans"ereverythin+ Cuban &een&enceon Jeneue)a an& Jeneue)a>s subseEuent )e%erage o%er Cuba are ai&e&an& abette& b! the +,S,VCuban e$bargo,@ue to the e$aro's trade restrictions,Jeneue)a has in efect re)ace& the ro)e the +,S, 'ou)& ha%e )a!e& in aost So%iet +nion g)oba)ie& Cuban econo$!,#ertainly #have! is $est kno"n or hisincessant and irreverent anti-i&erialist rhetoric "hich akes hi, at ties, hard to take seriously+Do"ever a close look at his actions reveals "hat sees to $e a deli$erate &lan to &ose a sini;cantthreat to the 7+S+ : Wuick run do"n o the acts are as ollo"s) #have! has recently s&ent C $illion to

    create the stronest ilitary in =atin :erica, Jeneue)a is one o( Cuba>s to cre&itors.Cuba>s &ebt to Jeneue)a is W2,R bi))ion an& rising. an& the Cuban $i)itar!

    is he)ing co$)ete Cha%e>s trans(or$ation o( the Jeneue)an $i)itar!,A&& the (acts to the Cuba-an&-Jeneue)a-are-one-nation rhetoric. theJeneue)a nee&s a robust $i)itar! to &e(en& itse)( (ro$ the +,S, rhetoric.the Jeneue)a shou)& be ab)e to ursue Keace(u)L nuc)ear 'eaonsrhetoric an& the narro' &e(eat o( the constitutiona) re(or$s that 'ou)&ha%e $a&e Cha%e ossib)! an in&eFnite resi&ent o( a Cuba an&Jeneue)a con(e&eration an& the i$)ications to +,S, securit! shou)& beEuite ob%ious,

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    6atin A$erica 5e)ations--- China Co$etition

    9e>re in co$etition 'ith China (or o'er in 6atin A$ericaPere 2010(@avid :+ Pere9, J+@+ Oale =a" Schoo, :ericas #u$a Policy) The ay 8or"ard) :Policy ?ecoendation or the 7+S+ State @e&artent,% S&rin, 2010, Darvard =atino =a" ?evie",=e9is.

    The absence o( a strong A$erican resence o%er the )ast eight !ears hasa)so gi%en China the oortunit! to ste in as a $a4or )a!er. bothecono$ica))! an& o)itica))!. in regions a)) aroun& the 'or)&. butarticu)ar)! in 6atin A$erica, The Chinese go%ern$ent has in%este& atre$en&ous a$ount o( so(t o'er in 6atin A$erica, "here it is no" the continentsthird larest tradin &artner, "ith an annual trade ro"th o 30 since 2001+ 11C A$erican&isinterest in 6atin A$erica has con%ince& $an! countries to a&ot aPaciFc %ie'."here$y #hina ste&s in to ;ll the a& let $y :ericas a$sence+ 115 :ter sinina ree trade areeent "ith #hile, #hina Wuickly dis&laced the 7nited States as that countrys lareste9&ort arket+ #hina also \]22A^ recently dis&laced the 7+S+ as Bra!ils $iest tradin &artner+ 11 /n2000, trade $et"een #hina and =atin :erica hovered around 13 $illion, $ut in 200, that nu$er

    had increased to 102 $illion, and $y 200I total trade "as valued at 1A0 $illion+ 11I Lven des&itethe current ;nancial crisis, trade $et"een #hina and =atin :erica is likely to ro" durin the ne9t ;ve

    years+ Chinas interest in 6atin A$erica is a)so base& on its increasing)!asserti%e g)oba) o)itica) agen&a,/n 200, #osta ?ica dro&&ed its di&loatic reconition oTai"an, a ove heavily courted $y #hinese oHcials+ /n 200I, President Du re"arded #osta ?icas ne"&olicy $y visitin San Jose and sinin a ree trade areeent in 2010+ 114 #hina also tied therelease o a ne" &olicy &a&er on Sino-=atin :erican relations to coincide "ith President Dus ostrecent tri& to the reion+ /t charts #hinas ro"in relationshi& "ith =atin :erica and &roisesincreased coo&eration in scienti;c and technoloical research, cross-cultural educational e9chanes, as

    "ell as &olitical and econoic e9chanes+ 120 As Chinas ro)e in 6atin A$ericaincreases. A$erican c)out correson&ing)! &ecreases in ter$s o( re)ati%eo'er,To $e sure, the +,S,"ill reain the a6or &o"er$roker in the :ericas or decades tocoe, $ut 'i)) increasing)! ha%e to $ake roo$ (or a ne' )a!er, ?i%en this

    &i$inishing econo$ic osition. 9ashington 'i)) ha%e to re)! $ore hea%i)!on &i)o$atic initiati%es that shore u cre&ibi)it! rather than si$)!econo$ic incenti%es an& &isincenti%es, such as $ilateral trade areeents+

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    A2 Aease$ent Turn--- ?enera)

    Af &oesn>t $ake Cuba a geoo)itica) threatohnson 2010(:ndy Johnson, @irector, ational Security Prora [yle S&ector, Policy :dvisor,ational Security Prora [ristina =ilac, ational Security Prora, Se&te$er 15, 2010, Third ay/nstitute, htt&)**content+third"ay+or*&u$lications*325*ThirdRayRMeoR-RLndRtheRL$aroRoR#u$a+&d.

    Peter *rookes, a orer de&uty assistant secretary o deense under Yeore + Bush, sai& that)i(ting the e$bargo cou)& )ea& to Cuba beco$ing a regiona) o'er. arguingthat the +S KX&oesn>tY nee& a u$e&-u Cuba that cou)& beco$e aserious $enace to +S interestsin =atin :erica, the #ari$$eanor $eyond+%1A 9hi)eJeneue)a. (or e=a$)e. has cha))enge& the +S on so$e interests. its anti-A$erican )ea&ershi has not been ab)e to resent a serious counter'eightto the +S orhave a sini;cant i&act on 7S security+ ?i%en that Jeneue)a is a $uchbigger econo$ic )a!er than Cuba &ue to its oi) re%enues. it is high)!un)ike)! that Cuba 'ou)& ose a signiFcant geoo)itica) cha))enge to the+S. e%en i( signiFcant su$s o( $one! enter Cuba>s econo$!,

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    A2 Aease$ent Turn--- ;cono$ics

    A2 it re'ar&s Castroohnson 2010(:ndy Johnson, @irector, ational Security Prora [yle S&ector, Policy :dvisor,ational Security Prora [ristina =ilac, ational Security Prora, Se&te$er 15, 2010, Third ay/nstitute, htt&)**content+third"ay+or*&u$lications*325*ThirdRayRMeoR-RLndRtheRL$aroRoR#u$a+&d.

    @or$er Senator Me) Martine has argue& against )i(ting the e$bargo.c)ai$ing that the +S nee&s Kto suort ro-&e$ocrac! acti%ists in Cuba.not ro%i&e the Castro regi$e 'ith a resource 'in&(a)),L1C 8lorida ?e&+ To?ooney has arued that litin the e$aro "ould serve to re"ard #u$a's leadershi& or its decades-lon record o huan rihts a$uses and allo" the a$use to continue due to the a$sence o &ressure

    ro the 7S+15 The +S has use& the e$bargo as an efort to ressure theco$$unist )ea&ershi (or near)! F(t! !ears. !et the status Euo re$ainsunchange&+ / a &ossi$le do"nside o litin the e$aro is that the situation "ill not chane, thenthe +S has nothing to )ose $y akin an efort to norali!e relations "ith #u$a+ *!re(using to engage Cuba an& $ake eforts to $o%e Cuba (or'ar&. the +S is

    in a 'eak osition to criticie the Cuban )ea&ershi, 6i(ting the e$bargoan& nor$a)iing re)ations 'ou)& ut the +S in a stronger osition to bringabout change through econo$ic a&%ance$ents that cou)& in turn resu)t in&o$estic &e$an&s 'ithin Cuba (or greater socia) an& o)itica) (ree&o$s,

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    6atin A$erica I$act--- ?)oba) Instabi)it!

    6atin A$erican instabi)it! goes g)oba)Man'aring 2003(Ma9 Y+ Man"arin, Proessor o Military Stratey at the 7+S+ :ry ar#ollee, retired 7+S+ :ry colonel and :d6unct Proessor o Political Science at @ickinson #ollee, March2003, ST?:TLY/# L88L#TS 8 TDL #8=/#T /TD /?:G) =:T/ :ML?/#:,%htt&)**"""+strateicstudiesinstitute+ary+il*&dHles*&u$2I4+&d.

    9hen 'hat $attere& $ost in +,S, nationa) securit! o)ic! to'ar& thehe$ishere 'ere $i)itar! bases, &reservin access to sea lines o counication, choke&oints, and ra" aterials and hydrocar$onsand ilitarily denyin those assets to the Soviet 7nion

    and its surroatesthe +nite& States cou)& ignore interna) con&itions in 6atinA$erica, *ut.since the +nite& Statesis no'interested in the need or nonhostiledis&ositions to"ard the country, the ca&acity o neih$ors to $uy :erican-ade &roducts, acoitent to international econoic coo&eration, the continued develo&ent o deocratic and

    ree arket institutions and huan rihtsthe 7nited States $ust concern itse)( 'ith theinterna) con&itions that sa'n subnationa). nationa). regiona). an& g)oba)insecurit! an& instabi)it!,15This dilea is critical+ Continue& neg)ect an&

    in&iference to 6atin A$erica>s stabi)it! rob)e$s 'i)) ro(oun&)! afectthe hea)th o( the +,S, econo$!Oan& the conco$itant o'er to act in theinternationa) securit! arena,:t the sae tie, increasing instabi)it! in thehe$ishere 'i)) )ike)! increase &irect securit! threats (ro$ terrorists to+,S, interests in the region an& to the +nite& States, Much is at risk,1

    Ma4or threat to the +S--- (ai)e& states8a$$ons 200(Ste"art :+ Daons, asters ro Joint :dvanced ar;htin School, :&rilA, 200I, =atin :erican /nsta$ility) : Ma6or Threat To The 7S,% htt&)**oai+dtic+il*oai*oaiver$Qet?ecordKetadataPre;9QhtlKidenti;erQ:@:AI122.Political, econoic, and social insta$ility is seen throuhout =atin :erica+ The case e9a&les&rovided "ere chosen to hihliht ho" delicate and intert"ined the &ro$les o insta$ility can $e+Lvery country in =atin :erica has sini;cant levels o insta$ility, not 6ust the three chosen as case

    e9a&les+ Instabi)it! is in&icati%e o( 'eak states an& can turn into (ai)e&states 'ith $ini$a) a&&itiona) e=terna) inuences (ro$ non-sates an& sub-state actors, The 'orst-case scenario (or the +S is the &e%e)o$ent o(nu$erous (ai)e& states 'ithin 6atin A$erica, The threat (ro$ narco-terrorists an& Is)a$ic (un&a$enta)ists $a! be the $ost critica) (ro$ asa(et! an& securit! ersecti%e but is 4ust the ti o( the iceberg, The)inke& nature bet'een the %arious countries 'ithin 6atin A$erica as 'e))as the efects on the +S are critica) to econo$ic roserit!. securit!. socia)eEua)it!. an& ru)e o( )a',

    *iggest threat to the +S8a$$ons 200(Ste"art :+ Daons, asters ro Joint :dvanced ar;htin School, :&rilA, 200I, =atin :erican /nsta$ility) : Ma6or Threat To The 7S,% htt&)**oai+dtic+il*oai*oaiver$Qet?ecordKetadataPre;9QhtlKidenti;erQ:@:AI122.The 7S has al"ays a&&roached =atin :erica on an as needed% $asis+ 7nortunately the conditions

    and stakes have chaned es&ecially since 4*11+ 6atin A$erica. because o( its ro=i$it!to the +S a)ong 'ith its instabi)it!. is the )argest current threat to the +S,/t all coes do"n to a si&le conce&t) Pay or the security no" at a relatively sall cost to the 7S or&ay or it later at a uch hiher cost in ters o :erican lives and security+

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    ;con Co))ase Causes 9ar

    ?)oba) econo$ic crisis causes 'ar an& great o'ertransitions--- best stu&ies

    5o!a) 2010(Jedediah ?oyal, @irector o #oo&erative Threat ?eduction at the 7+S+ @e&artent o@eense, 2010, Lconoic /nteration, Lconoic Sinalin and the Pro$le o Lconoic #rises,% inLconoics o ar and Peace) Lconoic, =eal and Political Pers&ectives, ed+ Yoldsith and Brauer, &+213-21A.

    =ess intuitive is ho" erio&s o( econo$ic &ec)ine $a! increase the )ike)ihoo& o(e=terna) conict+ Political science literature has contri$uted a oderate deree o attention tothe i&act o econoic decline and the security and deence $ehaviour o interde&endent states+?esearch in this vein has $een considered at systeic, dyadic and national levels+ Several nota$lecontri$utions ollo"+ 8irst, on the systeic level, Pollins (200I. advances Modelski and Tho&son's

    (1445. "ork on leadershi& cycle theory, ;ndin that rh!th$s in the g)oba) econo$! areassociate& 'ith the rise an& (a)) o( re-e$inent o'er an& the o(tenb)oo&! transition (ro$ one re-e$inent )ea&er to the ne=t+ :s such,e=ogenous shocks such as econo$ic crises cou)& usher in a re&istribution

    o( re)ati%e o'er (see also Yil&in, 104I1. that )ea&s to uncertaint! about o'erba)ances. increasing the risk o( $isca)cu)ation(8earon, 144C.+ :lternatively, e%en are)ati%e)! certain re&istribution o( o'er cou)& )ea& to a er$issi%een%iron$ent (or conict as a rising o'er $a! seek to cha))enge a&ec)ining o'er(erner, 1444.+ Se&erately, Polllins (1445. also sho"s that lo$al econoiccycles co$ined "ith &arallel leadershi& cycles i&act the likelihood o con suggeststhat. 'hen (acing unou)arit! arising (ro$ econo$ic &ec)ine. sittinggo%ern$ents ha%e increase& incenti%es to create a Gra))! roun& the ag>efect,an (1445., @e?ouen (144C., and Blo$er, Dess and Thacker (2005. ;nd su&&ortinevidence sho"in that econoic decline and use o orce are at least indirectly correlated+ Yel&i(144. Miller (1444. and [isananie and Pickerin (2004. suest that the tendency to"ardsdiversionary tactics are reater or deocratic states than autocratic states, due to the act thatdeocratic leaders are enerally ore susce&ti$le to $ein reoved ro oHce due to lack o

    doestic su&&ort+ @e?ouen (2000. has &rovided evidence sho"in that erio&s o( 'eak

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    econo$ic er(or$ancein the 7nited States, and thus "eak &residential &o&ularity, arestatistica))! )inke& to an increase in the use o( (orce+

    3A

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    Pro)i(eration Causes 9ar

    Pro)i( 'on>t be eace(u);)he(na'! 200(ader Llhena"y, Ph@, :ry ar #ollee, :uust 200I, The e9t ave ouclear Prolieration,% Paraeters, online./t is inconceiva$le that anythin like this distri$ution "ill continue in a "orld turnin heavily to nuclearenery, a act that has already laid the oun- dation or a $roadenin o &roduction and use in Last and

    South :sia+I 9e shou)&also e=ect a )arge-sca)e. rai& estab)ish$ent o(nuc)ear energ! ro&uc- tion in areas 'here it has been %irtua))! absent.(or e=a$)e. the Mi&&)e ;ast. sub-Saharan A(rica. an& 6atin A$erica,Toa&&ro9iate 8rance's current level o nuclear enery reliance, or instance, /ran alone "ould reWuirerouhly 1I o&erational reactorsV Saudi :ra$ia, 20+ More e9tensive su$stitution o nuclear enery orother sources o &o"er, or uture econoic e9&ansion (such as de- scri$ed a$ove., "ill reWuire acoensurate ro"th in the nu$er o reactors+4 :ll o this ay sound a$stract, $ut oves in thisdirection are al- ready "ell under "ay+ Soe A0 develo&in nations have e9&ressed interest in startinnuclear enery &roras, and any have oved $eyond vaue state- ents o intentions+10 The7nited :ra$ Lirates, or instance, has already struck a deal or t"o reactors, the only one o 11nations in this reion (thus ar. to have announced such &lans+11 :ssessin the @aner :s outlined

    a$ove, a (uture in 'hich the 'or)&as a 'ho)e turne& to nuc)ear energ! 'i))$eannot 6ust an e9&ansion o nuclear enery &roduction, $ut substantia) changes inro&uction i$acting $ain)an& Asia. A(rica. an& 6atin A$erica,:n assessento the associated &rolieration risk involved devolves $asically into an e9aination o t"o diensions,ca&a$ilities and intentions"hat "idened nuclear enery use "ill ean or the access o these statesto nuclear "ea&ons technoloyV and the i&act that this ne" envi ronent "ill have on aovernent's otivation to actually use that access to &roduce nuclear "ea&onry+Technoloical:ccessThe increase in nuclear enery &roduction descri$ed a$ove "ill ean reater &roduction,tradin, and consu&tion o the ;ssile aterials and other technoloies that are &art o the nuclearuel cycle+ The s&eci;cs difer accordin to reactor ty&e, $ut every reactor uses uraniu in the &roduc-tion o its uel and &roduces &lutoniu in its "aste, e9tracta$le in the uel re- &rocessin &rocedure,and in such a anner that every ty&e o reactor &oses a easure o &rolieration risk+12 Yas-cooled

    and hea%!-'ater reactors use natura) uraniu$ as (ue). but are i&ea) (orro&ucing 'eaons-gra&e )utoniu$,8ast-neutron% reactors use ;ssile aterial (such

    as hihly enriched uraniu or &lutoniu. at the very start o their uel cycle, and 8ast Breeder?eactors in &articular &roduce ore ;ssile aterial than they consue+ Lven =iht ater ?eactors(=?s., "hich have $een descri$ed as &rolieration-resistant% (t"o o "hich "ere &rovided to orth[orea under the :reed 8rae"ork., are no e9ce&tion+13 They use lo"-enriched uraniu, "hich is notuseul or akin "ea&ons, $ut "hich is &roduced in the sae en- richent &rocess used toanuacture "ea&ons+ :dditionally, lo"-enriched uraniu can $e seen as hal"ay to "ea&ons rade,since it can $e ore ra&idly enriched to the needed level than stock natural uraniu+ :t the saetie, "hile these reactors &roduce relatively saller Wuantities o lo"er Wuality &lu- toniu than otherty&es, it has $een estiated that a 1,000-ea"att =? can still enerate enouh "ea&ons-usa$le%&lutoniu or u& to C0 $o$s a year+1AThe res&onse on the &art o those seekin to liit&rolieration has, accordinly, $een to encourae as any nuclear enery users as &ossi$le not todevelo& the entire uel cycleV that is, to oro $uildin u& their o"n uel en- richent and re&rocessinca&a$ilities+ /nstead, it is &ro&osed that they $uy uel and re&rocessin services on the "orld arket,as &ro&osed in the Ylo$al uclear Lnery Partnershi& o 8e$ruary 2005+ There are, ho"ever,"ides&read dou$ts a$out the initiative's likely cost and efectiveness, concerns articulated in a lettersined $y a nu$er o control orani!ations, includin the 8ederation o :erican Scientists, the 7niono #oncerned Scientists, and the :rs #ontrol :ssociation+1C Their o$6ections, ho"ever, ail to includeone i&ortant &ointthat states have $een &artly dissuaded ro develo&in the ull nuclear uelcycle or eco- noic reasons, a act that ay not reain o&erative in any assive e9&ansion onuclear enery use+ Si&ly &ut, it is chea&er or a sall nuclear &rora to $uy nuclear uel on the"orld arket than to $uild and o&erate the acilities reWuired to en- rich uraniu doestically+ This hasresulted in only eiht o soe 30 nuclear enery &roducers actually enain in enrichent on anindustrial scale+15 The sae is true or uel re&rocessin acilities, es&ecially iven the relatively lo"cost o ne"ly ined uraniu+ :ccordinly, only a handul o states (Britain, 8rance, ?ussia, Ja&an, and/ndia. actually &ractice civil re&rocessin+1 :ny sini;cant ro"th in nuclear enery &roduction "ould

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    chane those econoics+ Man! o( to&a!>s Ks$a))L rogra$s 'ou)& beco$e eEua)in sie to those no' consi&ere& )arge-sca)e. an& (or that reason theirin%est$ents in enrich$ent an& rerocessing )ess i$ractica),:dditionally, "ithore &roras lare and sall o&erational, there 'ou)& be a )arger. $ore )ucrati%e$arket (or (ue) ro&uction an& (ue) rec!c)ing ser%icesH the )atter 'ou)& ina)) )ike)ihoo& gro' $ore attracti%e as en)arge& uraniu$ consu$tion

    tightens su)ies an& &ri%es u rices,(/ndeed, as the situation currently stands, anyuraniu e9&orters not rearded as likely &rolieratorsincludin :ustralia and #anadaare interestedin enrichent technoloy $ecause enrichin their uraniu $eore e9&ort "ould increase&ro;ta$ility+.1I #ertainly i ura- niu &rices "ere to rise, there "ould $e ore interest in 8ast Breeder?eac- tors, "hich one analyst suests can e9tract ore than 50 ties as uch enery &er ton oined ore as a conventional% nuclear &lant "hen o&erated in a closed circuit "ith theral reactors

    and re&rocessin acilities+14 /n short, the econo$ic incenti%es (or states to re(rain(ro$ &e%e)oing the (u)) nuc)ear (ue) c!c)e 'i)) a)$ost certain)! 'eaken.'hi)e the articu)ar)! 'orriso$e (ast-neutron reactors 'i)) beco$e $oreattracti%e,:t the sae tie, the heihtened de&endence on nuclear enery, and the e9&erienceo en- ery scarcity, "ill continue to reinorce the search or enery inde&endence% and enerysecurity,% contri$utin to the &ressure that the non&rolieration re- ie is already e9&eriencin, as theresult o $ein a rati;er% o uneWual ac- cess to nuclear technoloy+20 /n any event, such chanes

    enorously increase the already su$stantial $urden o onitorin and securin the storae andoveent o the su&&lies associated "ith nuclear &o"er eneration, not to ention the &olitical costso aintainin the reie+21 Motivation :s outlined &reviously, any &lausi$le co$ination o &olitical

    ar- raneents and technoloical innovations is likely to have uneven results+ Deter$ine&states are )ike)! to Fn& it easier to acEuire the $eans (or ro&uc- ingFssi)e $ateria). 'hich raises the other ke! &i$ension o( the issueOthe$oti%ation (or acEuiring these 'eaons in the Frst )ace, 6ong-estab)ishe& research strong)! in&icates that the $oti%ation to bui)&nuc)ear 'eaons is $ore o( a (actor than si$)! achie%ing thetechno)ogica) caacit!,22 /ndeed, it is due to this e9cessive ocus on ca&acity that ear- lier&redictions a$out the s&eed and the e9tent o nuclear &rolieration ("hich &ro6ected 2C to C0 nuclear-"ea&on states $y the year 2000. &roved "ron+23 The relative ease "ith "hich the "ea&ons iht $e$uilt is &roo o thisV a &ro- ra to develo& a inial ca&a$ility ro scratch could cost as little as

    C00 illion, less than the &rice o a odern "arshi&+2A /n short, "ere ca&acity the only issue, there"ould $e ar ore nu- clear &o"ers in the "orld, thouh o course access to the eans cannot $eruled out as a actor in decisionakin+ hen uch o the inrastructure or develo&in a nucleararsenal is already in &lace, as ay $e the case in several advanced countries, the decision to do soentails lo"er costsV and iven the s&eed "ith "hich these &roras can $e initiated, the nations inWuestion are also less susce&ti$le to &reventative action than countries startin ro scratch+2C :&articular daner is that havin such acilities in &lace &rovides the "ith the o&tion o divertin

    aterial ro the uel cycle or covert "ea&on &roras+25 The rationa)e &ri%ing the shi(tto nuc)ear energ! in the Frst )ace(en- ery and cliate stress. 'i)) increasing)!trans)ate into greater $oti%ation on the art o( so$e actors to ursue anuc)ear caabi)it!, *roa& econo$ic &isru- tion is near)! certain as theresu)t o( the tightening o( oi) su)ies an& the c)i- $ate changes thisscenario anticiates, Politically, this $a! trans)ate into changes in the

    &istribution o( internationa) o'er &een&ing on in&i%i&ua) states> abi)it!to coe(as "ith "ealthier nations, or ones "ith enery-eHcient econoies., or e%en roFt(ro$ these con&itions(or instance, oil e9&orters.V 'hi)e the $ost %u)nerab)estates $a! co))ase. creating e%en greater rob- )e$s (or the internationa)co$$unit!(havens or crie, terroris, or reuee

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    $ini$ie their %u)nerabi)it!,: oal "hich nuclear "ea&ons have lon $een vie"ed as achea& "ay o achievin+ The Knuc)eariationL o( a sing)e state can in&uce a chainreaction across a region,The nucleari!ation o #hina s&urred /ndia and in turn Pakistan toollo" suit, and the :rentinean and Bra!ilian nuclear &roras ed of one another+ Today the &os-si$ility that a nuclear orth [orea ay lead South [orea or Ja&an to acWuire nu- clear "ea&ons is otendiscussed+2I /n the Middle Last there are sins that Saudi :ra$ia is revie"in its nuclear o&tions, and anuclear-ared /ran ay encourae the Saudis and others in the reion to continue do"n this &ath+24

    9ith nuc)ear techno)og! $ore 'i&e)! a%ai)ab)e these actions can be taken$uch $ore rai&)! an& at )ess cost,Those ursuing this course o( action'i)) Fn& it a si$)e $atter to a$ass )arge stocki)es o( nuc)ear 'eaons,/tis also "orth notin that even "ere the develo&ent o actual nuclear "ea&ons to reain a rarity,

    K%irtua) arsena)sL cou)& be $ore co$$on. )ea%ing the nu- c)ear 'eaonsstatus o( a )onger )ist o( countries uncertain. in $an! cases &e)iberate)!so. 'ith a &etri$enta) i$act on the securit! en%iron$ent,30

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