Dan Kašpar, Klára Hulíková Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science, Department of Demography and Geodemography

Dan Kašpar, Klára Hulíková

Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science, Department of Demography and Geodemography ([email protected], [email protected])

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Why to study? Convergence of mortality

assumed by theories of demographic transition and epidemiological transition

Development of mortality in 20th century

Content 1. Main convergence/divergence

tendencies of mortality in Europe


tendencies of mortality in Europe Convergence tendencies

of mortality of selected country to other countries2. Life expectancy at the age of 65


tendencies of mortality in Europe Convergence tendencies

of mortality of selected country to other countries2. Life expectancy at the age of 653. Main groups of causes of death

1. Main convergence/divergence tendencies of mortality in Europe 1a) Common statistics 1b) Use of population weights

Data Human Mortality

Database 28 countries

Including East and West Germany

1959–2009 Life expectancy

at birth, males

Division into regions Southern Europe Western Europe Northern Europe Central Europe Eastern Europe

Life expectancy at birth, selected European countries, males, 1959–2009

9

1a) Common statistics

Selected basic statistics of life expectancy at birth in selected 28 European countries, males

Interquartile rangeRange

Southern, Western, Northern Europe

Central, Eastern Europe

2b) Use of population weights

Cumulative distribution of European population by life expectancy at birth, males

1959 – interquartile range 4,1 years2009 – interquartile range 13,7 years

Percent of European population at each level of life expectancy at birth, by type of country, 1959, males

93 % of population






2. Convergence tendencies of mortality of selected country to other countries:

Life expectancy at the age of 65 Possible future convergence

of one population to other populations with lower mortality

”Since 1991 life expectancy gains in the Czech Republic and Poland have outpaced those in Japan, with an increase of 3.3 years compared to Japan's 2.0 years. At that pace differential, it would take time for them to catch up Japan (42 years for the Czech Republic and even 48 years for Poland).”(Vallin, Meslé, 2004, pp. 24)

Steps 1. Reference population

Czech Republic 2. Indicator(s) of mortality

Life expectancy at the age of 65 (e65)

3. Starting point, period, regression function2009; 1991–2009; simple linear function

4. Time to equalization of functions

Time to equalization


Czech Republic

DIVERGENCE (faster speed of development in

period 1991–2009 in state A)


Czech Republic

CONVERGENCE (slower speed of development in

period 1991–2009 in state A)

Data Human Mortality

Database Life expectancy

at the age of 65 27 countries 1991–2009

Differences in e65 between the Czech Republic and other European countries in 2009 for males (left) and females (right)

Use only countries with higher e65 in 2009

Hypothetical number of years from the year 2009 necessary for equalization of the values of e65 in the Czech Republic and other European countries

Hypothetical number of years from the year 2009 necessary for equalization of the values of e65 in the Czech Republic and other European countries

3. Convergence tendencies of mortality of selected country to other countries (main groups of causes of death)

Data WHO Mortality Database 25 European countries ICD-10 only Studied period: 1994–2012 (data were

not fully available for all the countries) Groups of causes of deathCardiovascular diseasesNeoplasmsExternal causes

Methods Age-specific mortality rates (where data were

available) and standardized mortality rates (according to groups of causes of death and sex) Standard population: European Standard Population

2013 Modelling of the recent trend: logistic function Extrapolation of the logistic function Time to equalization of values of the logistic

function for a reference country (Czech Republic) and all the other countries – according to groups of causes and sex

Convergence with Poland for males, not for females

Convergence with Hungary for females, not for males

No countries where there are convergence tendencies with the Czech Republic in near future

Divergent tendencies with all other countries (or equal tempo of change) with them

Only states corresponding with the applied scale are displayed

Convergence with Sweden, Norway, Portugal and Spain for both sexes

Convergence with Bulgaria and Denmark for males, not for females

Convergence with Belgium and France for females, not for males

Relatively homogeneous group of countries according to mortality caused by neoplasms, for both sexes. However, this countries are different from other European countries


Relatively homogeneous group of countries according to mortality caused by external causes, for both sexes

Latvia – exceptionally high value among females, more time needed for homogeneity with other countries

Italy, Spain – exceptionally low value among males, more time needed for homogeneity with other countries


Summary Main tendencies of mortality

in Europe since the second half of the 20th century

Way of quantification and visualization of convergence and divergence tendencies of mortality of one population to other populations

Conclusion There exist many reasons why

and many possibilities how to study convergence and divergence tendencies of mortality

The study was supported by the Charles University in Prague, project GA UK No 163015.

Documents

Dan Kašpar, Klára Hulíková Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science, Department of Demography and Geodemography