David Lindenmayer

Long-term Forest Science, Fires, Human disturbance & a vision for management

This talk

• ANU Background• The wet forests of Victoria• The current state of these forests• Restoring these forests• A new vision for forest management

Specialise in large-scale, l0ng-term ecological research and monitoring thru ANU

37 other staff, students etc – funded thru grants, book royalties etc

37 books, 920 scientific articles, 53 “live” (current) projects

The wet forests of Central Victoria(171 200 ha)

The Central Highlands of Victoria

Most of Melbourne’s

water (4.5m people –

largest city by 2020)

Up to 1700 tonnes of carbon biomass per ha

(Keith et al., 2009; PNAS; Keith et al., 2014; Ecosphere)

WORLD’S MOST CARBON DENSE FORESTS

Leadbeater’s Possum

Endangered speciesFaunal emblem of VictoriaOnly occurs in these forests

Natural disturbance regime – rare, high-severity, stand-replacing (or partial replacing fire)

2009 “Black Saturday” wildfires

173 lives lost >16 000 properties damaged 72 000 ha of 171 200 ha of ash forest

burned Worst fires in Australia wrt human

fatalities and infrastructure impact……..

Human use = Logging provides (372 direct) jobs

Greater than 31 years of science: (since 1983…….)

7 books (+5/8)

187 peer-reviewedscientific papers (+7)

>1, 800,000 scientificmeasurements since 1983

2009

2011

The current state of the forest

IUCN Red Listed Ecosystem – Critically Endangered

(Burns et al. 2014 [Austral Ecology]

The forest has been massively altered in the last 50-100 years

• 1.16% Mountain Ash (1887 ha of 171 200 ha)• 0.37% Alpine Ash

Remaining Old Growth forest (was 30-60% historically)

72,000 ha Mountain Ash burned in 2009

•

Spatial cover by history and disturbance

Marysville

Healesville

ANU monitoring plots

2009 fire

2009 fire and ANU plots

TRP plus Logging history (total)

2009 fire

2009 plus 1983 fire

How has this happened?

Modern (extensive & intensive) clearfelling

BIODIVERSITY

The current reserve system is inadequate

(Todd et al. 2014)

Leadbeater’s Possum is on an extinction trajectory

Overall decline

• Old growth cover has declined by 95-97% of “background” cover levels (1/30th-1/60th)

• Large old trees = 90% decline in total abundance by 2035

Mis-match between tree loss and animal needs

FIRE

(New work by Taylor et al [2014] (in Conservation Letters)

Logging elevates fire severity (Taylor et al. 2014)

• Repeated fire – fire burns young forest and keeps it young with subsequent re-burning

• (A fire in a young forest is different to a fire in an old forest)

Cumulative logging + fire effects across landscapes

LANDSCAPE TRAP

(Forest is trapped as a young forest because of recurrent widespread fire

– and never matures)

CARBON

The world’s most carbon dense forests

decomposition

Total biomass carbon in forest ecosystem

100%

Merchantable biomass removed

off-site40%

Waste or slash remaining

60%

CWD remaining

on-site30%

~50 yrs

slash burning

Sawlogs11%

Pulp29%

waste waste

Sawn timber4%

30-90 yrs

Paper products

20%1-3 yrs

Landfilldecompositioncombustion

CO2 CO2

CO2

CO2

CO2

CO2

CO2Proportions of carbon from Mountain Ash forest going to pulp and sawlog products and remaining on coupe

(Keith et al., 2013)

Fate of carbon in harvested forest

Logging and carbon stocksReduction from ~800 to 300 tonnes/ha [Keith et al., 2014 – Ecosphere]

100,000 ha of Mountain Ash for carbon • 24,500,000 tonne saving in carbon emissions

• – 1/3rd of Yallourn Power Station annually• Equivalent of 750,000 – 1,000,000 ha of replanted woodland

Forest restoration and management strategies

Essential to “re-build” and restore the Mountain Ash forest estate

For biodiversity

For fire management

For carbon storage

For water supply

For economic benefits via tourism

Prevent Extinction of endangered species

To regrow old trees and old growth

To limit future fire risk

Plantations = alternative feedstock

More than 2X sufficient plantations to provide feedstock for paper production

Plantation is actually preferred feedstock

Has positive carbon abatement potential

WATER

Water values of old ash forestOld growth yields

more water Water value >> pulp

(via desal pricing)Water for

4.5M people

TOURISM

Major benefits for local and regional economies

How many people?

4+ million residents in Melbourne

14 million domestic visitors per year in 2009

1.4 million international visitors in 2009

• Tahune Airwalk, Geeveston• Tarkine Forest Adventures• Hollybank, Underwood• Eagles Eyrie, Maydena

National Park eco tourism in Tasmania

Milford Track, New Zealand

Think about the infrastructure

• Walking tracks (serious and semi-serious)• Ziplines• Aerial walkways• Facilities for grey nomads, backpackers, high-

end tourism

Thank you